With Emmanuel Macron winning yesterday’s French presidential runoff, Marlene Laruelle writes that his rival Marine Le Pen remains largely pro-Russian even though she had to soften her rhetoric in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On how the war is impacting other countries, a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo by Veljko Milonjic argues it leaves no room for East-West balancing among six EU-aspiring Western Balkans countries. Arkady Moshes observes that the Ukrainians’ fight evokes Finnish memories of the Winter War. For Elizabeth Wishnick, China and Russia are united by some “strategic regime and security factors” but divided by “differences in the implementation.”

In a second new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Marat Iliyasov and Yoshiko Herrera find Moscow’s current military campaign parallels the first Russo-Chechen war, which ended in disgrace. As Russia declares victory in Mariupol, Samuel Charap explains its significance as part of a “highway going north” that could help Russian troops encircle Ukrainian defenders in the east. Volodymyr Dubovyk argues that the sheer quantity of civilian targets indicates that Russia is firing at them deliberately.

Regardless of the military outcome, writes Volodymyr Ishchenko, Russia’s war in Ukraine will lead to fundamental economic, political, and ideological transformations in the post-Soviet space. Konstantin Sonin calls the flight of more than 200,000 Russians a “tragic exodus not seen for a century.” Dmitry Medvedev appears to be straining desperately to stay relevant in this Russia, comment Maria Snegovaya and Brian Taylor.

Foreign Affairs asked “a broad pool” of experts whether NATO enlargement was a mistake. Among respondents, Charap says no, as does Kimberly Marten, who cites NATO airstrikes in Kosovo and unilateral U.S. military action in other parts of the world as problems rather than simple geographic expansion. Maria Popova also says no, concluding the invasion stems purely from Russian domestic sources, and Snegovaya suggests blaming NATO enlargement deflects attention from “resurgent Russian revanchism and imperialism.” Alexander Cooley remains neutral, contending that over the last two decades, both NATO and Russia have evolved into threats to each other.

Event

Friday, April 29 – Saturday, April 30, 2022: Between the EU and Russia: Domains of Diversity and Contestation held in partnership by the BEAR Network and PONARS Eurasia, online and in-person at the GW Elliott School.