In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Aizada Arystanbek and Caress Schenk look at patterns of mobility between Russia and Central Asia and Europe since the invasion of Ukraine, finding that colonialism, racism, and discrimination are driving the current flows.

President Vladimir Putin has reinvented Russia as an empire quite recently, a strategy by default, not by design, that emerged once other options for greatpowerness failed, writes Marlene Laruelle in a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo. Laruelle also argues that Russia and the West must share the blame for the strategic deadlock that preempted the war, even though the invasion is Putin’s own responsibility.

In surveys, Mikhail Alexseev and Serhii Dembitskyi find that despite the intense trauma, Ukrainians are optimistic about the future, support their president, trust democratic institutions, and are more willing to join the EU and NATO. Alexseev also suggests Russia may aim at major targets, including near Kyiv, as Ukraine prepares for Independence Day on August 24.

In a comprehensive report, Petro Burkovskyi and Olexiy Haran dissect the goals, achievements, strengths, and weaknesses of Russia and Ukraine at this point in the conflict and find that both must choose whether to start a sudden offensive before September or wait until the end of the year.

Samuel Charap predicts that Ukraine will attempt a counteroffensive in the south and notes with surprise that Russia’s strategy in the two occupied southern regions has been largely improvised. Pavel Baev writes that Putin’s “next miscalculation” is Russia’s readiness for a long war, as the conflict begins to take a heavier toll on the Russian public while Ukrainian resistance and Western unity hold firm. Still, Charap and Jeremy Shapiro argue that the path to a cease-fire requires opening communication channels with Moscow.

Volodymyr Ishchenko explores Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a bid to consolidate power and how the ruling classes of both Ukraine and Russia are political capitalists of a sort largely unknown in the West. Simon Saradzhyan suggests that one of the war’s aims is to force the Russian elite to break with the West in favor of deeper alignment with a rising China. Richard Arnold sees how Russia’s Cossack organizations play an important role in educating the country’s youth on the values of patriotism and preparing them for military service.

Ukrainian education has adapted to war conditions as well. Volodymyr Dubovyk credits innovations in online learning during the pandemic with helping universities successfully transition to war. Tymofii Brik describes supporting students who moved away from their studies to support the war effort and creating new courses and programs to train skills needed to rebuild.

Jessica Pisano describes how President Volodymyr Zelensky has long positioned himself as a person outside regular politics and how his unique interpretation of Ukrainian patriotism has informed his role as a wartime president.

Robert Orttung says new evidence shows the Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet, contributing to sea-level rise and extreme weather events like hurricanes.

See the latest volume of Putin’s Russia (Rowman & Littlefield), edited by Darrell Slider, containing contributions by Maria Snegovaya, Masha Lipman, Nikolai Petrov, and more.

Access the latest issue of Nationalities Papers (Cambridge University Press) without charge until August 2022 to view articles by Peter Rutland, Maria Popova, and more.