August 2, 2024

Speculation on the Middle East abounds, but regional leaders are telling us what they hope to do. This week, in a carefully planned operation to kill Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Israel advanced its mission after October 7: to hunt down and kill Hamas leaders one by one, wherever they are. Although there was speculation that Haniyeh was killed by a missile strike, on Thursday the media reported that Israel had managed to plant a bomb several months ago in the Tehran guesthouse where Haniyeh was staying for Iranian President Pezeshkian’s inauguration, and that the bomb was remotely detonated. Most significantly here perhaps, the guesthouse was supposedly under the protection of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – indicating that the Iranians are dealing with a serious insider threat.

While the nature of the operation might have come as a shock, it’s not surprising that Haniyeh was a target and it’s less surprising that at both his funeral and Pezeshkian’s inauguration chants of “Death to Israel” and “Death to America” rang out from the crowd filled with Iranian lawmakers and representatives of groups like Hezbollah. Indeed, it’s past time that we should understand this rhetoric as an official call to action- because Iranian leaders have been advancing this mission for decades through arming and empowering multiple regional proxies. The Yemeni Houthis- who recently struck Tel Aviv in an unprecedented attack and continue to wreak havoc in the Red Sea, even adopted these destructive chants as part of their official slogan.

Iranian leaders have already promised retaliation for Haniyeh’s death- whether it be an attack on Israeli soil or on a global Israeli or Jewish target – and we can also take them at their word for this. Even if it’s highly orchestrated, and Washington receives warning as it did with Iran’s April attack on Israel, the line between rhetoric and action is thinner than ever in the Middle East. Israel’s also preparing to defend against counterattacks from Hezbollah after the Israelis killed Hezbollah senior military commander Fuad Shakr in Beirut earlier this week. Further counterattacks could stem from confirmation that Israel did in fact kill Hamas commander Mohammed Deif in an airstrike in Gaza last month.

Israel’s stated mission is to defend itself and hunt down its attackers and Iran’s is to threaten “death” for Israel and the United States by funding its proxies and setting them loose on Israeli and US interests. Indeed, while multiple diplomatic efforts are underway to contain the violence and lower the temperature in the Middle East, regional leaders and key non-state actors have already told us their ultimate goals. And as they work to accomplish them, we can anticipate continued regional violence until Iran and its proxies decide just how much they’re willing to sacrifice along the way.

Civil dissent and state violence threaten stability after standing President Nicolas Maduro claims electoral victory in Venezuela. In the wake of a presidential election that was anything but transparent, on July 29 Venezuela’s corrupt election authority unsurprisingly named Maduro as the next Venezuelan president. Global dictators, like Vladimir Putin, quickly offered Maduro their congratulations and cautioned the Venezuelan people against any uprising. The opposition, however, has refused to concede, and has taken up the dangerous and problematic fight. Regional democracies such as Peru and Argentina have emphatically condemned the regime’s electoral fraud in defiance of Maduro -- as has the United States.

The opposition maintains that their candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, is the true president-elect- claiming that they could prove his landslide victory. Indeed, the opposition has independently collected over 84% of the voting tabulation sheets from polling stations nationwide, digitized them, and posted them online for Venezuelans to verify their votes. This data indicates that Gonzalez secured nearly 70% of the vote, marking it one of the most decisive victories in Latin American electoral history. Independent groups like the Carter Center have also reported a complete lack of transparency surrounding the elections- stating that they could not be deemed democratic.

In response to the dispute, the regime has accused opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and her team of orchestrating a cyber-attack to manipulate the results and has threatened them with arrest on charges of "terrorism." Machado is now in hiding and her campaign headquarters was ransacked by masked assailants. The regime is also making mass arrests and extrajudicial killings to suppress dissent - so far at least 19 people have been killed and thousands have been detained. But as the opposition continues to fight - and builds international support - it remains to be seen if any elements of Maduro’s military would ever be willing to turn against him unless there are massive violent sustained public demonstrations challenging key government institutions and facilities. Indeed, like Maduro himself, many military officials are implicated in narcotrafficking and crimes against humanity and would likely face prison if he’s removed.

The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.