Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Every damn thing is your own fault, if you are any good."

– Ernest Hemingway

"I was ashamed of myself when I realized life was a costume party, and I attended with my real face."

– Franz Kafka

"Education isn't something that you can finish."

– Isaac Asimov

1. Open Letter to the President of Ukraine Mr. Volodymyr Zelenskyy (from a north Korean escapee)

2. North Korean Defectors Offer to Support Ukrainian Psyops Against Former Comrades

3. North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to Russia to likely fight against Ukraine, Pentagon says

4. [Exclusive] “North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia has led to the departure of pro-China economic forces, the base of Kim Jong-un’s support”… “Kim Jong-un’s regime does not have much time left”

5. A War Tomorrow in Seoul: The Possibility of a War on The Korean Peninsula

6. N. Korea beefing up security for Kim Jong-un due to assassination possibility: spy agency

7. Rutte's statement on DPRK soldiers in Ukraine demand a NATO response

8. Some N. Korean generals, troops in Russia might move to front line: spy agency

9. N. Korean advance unit possibly moving to war front line in Russia: S. Korean spy agency

10. Yoon, Zelenskyy strongly condemn N.K.-Russia military cooperation in phone talks

11. N. Korean foreign minister departs for Russia amid troop dispatch

12. Zelenskyy expects 12,000 NK soldiers in Russia 'soon'

13. N. Korea threatens to attack Baengnyeongdo, claiming drone flew from the island

14. North Korean troops to Ukraine: cannon fodder or combat training?

15. Defense stocks on rally as North Korea enters Russia's war

16. Father-son defection attempt ends in arrest at Yalu River

17. Open Letter to the President of Ukraine Mr. Volodymyr Zelenskyy (from a former north Korean soldier)

18. How Ukraine can stop North Korean soldiers without firing a single shot

19. Why Americans dismiss Korean unification and why they must not

1. Open Letter to the President of Ukraine Mr. Volodymyr Zelenskyy (from a north Korean escapee)

Mon, 10/28/2024 - 9:52am

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/open-letter-president-ukraine-mr-volodymyr-zelenskyy

Editor's Note: You can view Hyun Seung Lee's video message to north Korean forces in Korean (with English text) at this link: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7254655921467924481/.

This letter has been forwarded to Kyiv.

Open Letter to the President of Ukraine Mr. Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Mr. Volodymyr Zelenskyy President of Ukraine

The Presidential Office of Ukraine Kyiv, 11 Bankova Street, 01220

October 25, 2024

Dear President Zelenskyy,

My name is Hyun-Seung Lee, and I am a former soldier who escaped from North Korea in 2014. It is with a heavy heart that I write this letter, knowing that my fellow North Koreans are now on Ukrainian soil, forced into a war that has nothing to do with them. I never imagined that these young men—often between the ages of 17 and 27—would be sent thousands of miles away to

fight and potentially die for a regime that treats them as expendable pawns.

The North Korean soldiers in Ukraine are not mercenaries driven by loyalty to Russia or a desire for financial gain. Instead, they are victims of a ruthless deal between Kim Jong-un and Putin.

Many of them are facing their first real battle, ill-equipped and terrified. They did not choose to be there, and they have no personal stake in this conflict. They are simply doing what they’ve

been forced to do, without compensation or protection for themselves or their families back

home. These soldiers are innocent, and their only "crime" is having been born in North Korea.

Mr. President, I firmly believe that the most effective way to address this situation is not through firepower, but through psychological warfare—an approach that can be even more powerful than a nuclear weapon. These young men are disillusioned, scared, and unmotivated to die for a

foreign cause. They have been indoctrinated to believe that loyalty to Kim Jong-un is the only path to survival, but the reality of their situation can break these psychological chains.

I urge you to request assistance from the South Korean government to provide the necessary tools for psychological operations, including:

Loudspeakers near the frontlines: These should broadcast Korean-language messages 24/7, emphasizing the futility of their mission and the fact that Kim Jong-un profits while offering nothing in return.
Leaflets via drones: These leaflets should explain the truth about Kim Jong-un’s brutality and the free world, along with safe pathways to surrender.
Portable radios: Distribute small radios that can play Korean-language broadcasts from former North Korean soldiers who have defected, sharing their personal success stories of life in South Korea and urging their comrades to seek freedom.
Psychological Warfare Units: Deploy specialized psychological warfare teams,

including former North Korean soldiers who understand the mindset and language of these troops. Their messages will be sincere, familiar, and effective, resonating deeply with the deployed troops.

Defection infrastructure: Establish a network of safe houses, food supplies, and counseling teams to offer immediate support and safety to escapees.

I know the power of the truth because I have experienced it myself. I know that these soldiers can be persuaded to surrender peacefully if they understand that there is a path to a better life, a chance to taste freedom, and to see a world they have never known. These young men deserve hope, not death.

If Ukraine uses this opportunity to break their psychological chains, it will not only neutralize a new threat but also save the lives of young men who never wanted to be there in the first place.

This is not just a military strategy; it is a moral victory. Please, Mr. President, consider this approach for the sake of both Ukrainian and North Korean lives.

With deepest respect and hope,

Hyun-Seung Lee

Former Sergeant of the North Korean Army Special Forces Chair, North Korean Young Leaders Assembly

Lead Strategist: North Korea Initiative, Global Peace Foundation

About the Author(s)

Hyun Seung Lee

Hyun Seung Lee is a North Korean escapee and human rights advocate. With an extensive background in international business and military affairs in North Korea, he has contributed to the U.S. government and policy community as a consultant. Hyun Seung has held numerous positions, including a fellow at the Global Peace Foundation and an advisory role at the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK). His career prior to defecting in 2014 involved significant roles in the North Korean shipping and mining sectors, facilitating trade between North Korea and China, and serving as a sergeant in the DPRK Army Special Force. He was granted membership in the Korean Workers’ Party and served as Chairman of the Kim Il-sung Socialist Youth League in Dalian, China. Severe governmental purges compelled his defection. Hyun Seung is a frequent contributor to media platforms like Voice of America, Radio Free Asia, and NK News. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in International Trade and Economics from Dongbei University in China and a Master’s in Public Administration from Columbia University.

2. North Korean Defectors Offer to Support Ukrainian Psyops Against Former Comrades

North Korean Defectors Offer to Support Ukrainian Psyops Against Former Comrades

kyivpost.com · by Kyiv Post · October 28, 2024

The defectors can leverage their military expertise and understanding of the culture of their compatriots to disrupt and weaken the resolve of North Korean soldiers on the battlefield.

by Kyiv Post | October 28, 2024, 2:33 pm

This picture taken on October 2, 2024 and released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) via KNS on October 4, 2024 shows troops taking part in training at a base of the Korean People's Army's special operations forces in the western region, at an undisclosed location in North Korea. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un said his forces would use nuclear weapons "without hesitation" if Pyongyang's territory was attacked by the South and its ally the United States, state media reported on October 4. (Photo by KCNA VIA KNS / AFP) / South Korea OUT / REPUBLIC OF KOREA OUT ---EDITORS NOTE--- RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO/KCNA VIA KNS" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS / THIS PICTURE WAS MADE AVAILABLE BY A THIRD PARTY. AFP CAN NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THE AUTHENTICITY, LOCATION, DATE AND CONTENT OF THIS IMAGE --- /

Nearly 200 North Korean defectors who live in South Korea, many with military backgrounds, seek to deploy to Ukraine to launch a psychological warfare campaign against Pyongyang’s troops reported to have deployed to Russia, according to the South China Morning Post.

The group, composed of ex-soldiers with up to 10 years of military experience, are prepared to exploit their insider knowledge of North Korean military culture to disrupt and demoralize Kim Jong-un’s troops.

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“We are veterans who understand North Korea’s military mindset better than anyone,” said Ahn Chan-il, a defector and head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies.

He expressed the group’s readiness to work as psyops operators, such as conducting loudspeaker broadcasts, preparing and distributing leaflets, and serving as interpreters.

According to the report, the proposal reflects the anger shared by the over 30,000 defectors from the North that now live in South Korea. They have become alarmed by Kim Jong-un’s “aggression and disregard for international law” in sending troops to aid Russia.

“As former North Korean soldiers, we are ready to go to the front, conduct psychological warfare, rescue these soldiers, and dismantle the North’s mercenary policies,” the mission’s statement said.

Drawing on their deep understanding of North Korea’s military culture, the defectors believe they can exploit weaknesses and potentially encourage North Korean troops to “turn their guns around.”

Road to EU Membership Long and Difficult But Will Bring Benefits

In this interview with the First Deputy Chairman of Kredobank Kyiv Post discusses the prospects for Ukraine’s EU membership and its relationship with Poland.

Ahn, who defected in 1979 after being inspired by South Korean loudspeaker broadcasts and leaflets while serving as a guard on the frontlines, said the group could also persuade captured North Korean soldiers to defect if they were to fall into Ukrainian hands.

“Most North Korean soldiers, including elite special forces, suffer from food shortages and malnutrition. The soldiers you see on televised parades are a carefully selected few – they’re the alpha of the entire population,” he said.

Lee Min-bok, another leading figure in the initiative, has appealed directly to Ukraine, writing an open letter to President Volodymyr Zelensky through the Ukrainian embassy in Seoul.

“North Korean soldiers are there essentially as mercenaries, but we would go as volunteers with a goodwill mission. Simply our presence in Ukraine could significantly impact the morale of North Korean troops,” he said, expressing the hope that the Ukrainian government would welcome their offer.

The Ukrainian embassy has yet to respond, and South Korea’s foreign and unification ministries have declined to comment.

The initiative comes amid political turmoil in South Korea, following leaked Telegram messages between a senior security official and a conservative lawmaker, which hinted at possible cooperation with Ukraine targeting North Korean forces aiding Russia.

President Yoon Suk-yeol recently signaled that South Korea might reconsider its long-standing stance against providing lethal aid to conflict zones, contingent on North Korea's involvement in the war.

He stated that South Korea “will not sit idle” if North Korean troops support Russia, suggesting that Seoul may consider arming Ukraine if military collaboration between Pyongyang and Moscow escalates.

Wi Seong-gon, a military analyst, indicated that South Korea could be moving closer to supplying weapons to Ukraine, possibly focusing on defensive systems such as anti-aircraft missiles without ruling out the provision of offensive weapons such as artillery ammunition.

The Chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate (HUR), Kyrylo Budanov, told The Economist on Tuesday that approximately 12,000 North Korean troops, including 500 officers and three generals, are currently deployed to Russia. According to Kyiv Post sources within HUR, North Korea is providing personnel, weapons, and equipment to Russia to help offset its significant battlefield losses.

In exchange, Russia is offering North Korea financial support and advanced technology to aid in the development and expansion of its nuclear program, Budanov said.

Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” (Хочу жить) surrender hotline, run by HUR, has urged North Korean soldiers sent to fight against Ukraine to surrender and avoid taking part in the conflict.

The deployment follows claims, made by Ukraine and South Korea in mid-October, that Pyongyang had sent troops to support Moscow’s invasion, linked to the mutual defense pact signed between Russia and North Korea in June.

3. North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to Russia to likely fight against Ukraine, Pentagon says

North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to Russia to likely fight against Ukraine, Pentagon says

By LORNE COOK and TARA COPP

Updated 10:07 PM EDT, October 28, 2024

AP · by TARA COPP · October 28, 2024

BRUSSELS (AP) — North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to Russia to train and likely fight against Ukraine within “the next several weeks,” the Pentagon said Monday, in a move that Western leaders say will intensify the almost three-year war and jolt relations in the Indo-Pacific region.

Some of the North Korean soldiers have already moved closer to Ukraine, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said, and were believed to be heading for the Kursk border region, where Russia has been struggling to push back a Ukrainian incursion.

Earlier Monday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte NATO confirmed recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that some North Korean military units were already in the Kursk region.

Adding thousands of North Korean soldiers to Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II will pile more pressure on Ukraine’s weary and overstretched army. It will also stoke geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the wider Indo-Pacific region, including Japan and Australia, Western officials say.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is keen to reshape global power dynamics. He sought to build a counterbalance to Western influence with a summit of BRICS countries, including the leaders of China and India, in Russia last week. He has sought direct help for the war from Iran, which has supplied drones, and North Korea, which has shipped large amounts of ammunition, according to Western governments.

Rutte told reporters in Brussels that the North Korean deployment represents “a significant escalation” in Pyongyang’s involvement in the conflict and “a dangerous expansion of Russia’s war.”

U.S. President Joe Biden also called the deployment “dangerous. Very dangerous.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with their South Korean counterparts later this week in Washington.

Singh said Austin and Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun will discuss the deployment of North Korean soldiers in Ukraine. There will be no limitations on the use of U.S.-provided weapons on those forces, Singh said.

“If we see DPRK troops moving in towards the front lines, they are co-belligerents in the war,” Singh said, using the acronym for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or North Korea. “This is a calculation that North Korea has to make.”

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov shrugged off Rutte’s comments and noted that Pyongyang and Moscow signed a joint security pact last June. He stopped short of confirming North Korean soldiers were in Russia.

Lavrov claimed that Western military instructors long have been covertly deployed to Ukraine to help its military use long-range weapons provided by Western partners.

Ukraine, whose defenses are under severe Russian pressure in its eastern Donetsk region, could get more bleak news from next week’s U.S. presidential election. A Donald Trump victory could see key U.S. military help dwindle.

In Moscow, the Defense Ministry announced Monday that Russian troops have captured the Donetsk village of Tsukuryne — the latest settlement to succumb to the slow-moving Russian onslaught.

Rutte spoke in Brussels after a high-level South Korean delegation, including top intelligence and military officials as well as senior diplomats, briefed the alliance’s 32 national ambassadors at NATO headquarters.

Rutte said NATO is “actively consulting within the alliance, with Ukraine, and with our Indo-Pacific partners,” on developments. He said he was due to talk soon with South Korea’s president and Ukraine’s defense minister.

“We continue to monitor the situation closely,” he said. He did not take questions after the statement.

The South Koreans showed no evidence of North Korean troops in Kursk, according to European officials who were present for the 90-minute exchange and spoke to The Associated Press about the security briefing on condition of anonymity.

It’s unclear how or when NATO allies might respond to the North Korean involvement. They could, for example, lift restrictions that prevent Ukraine from using Western-supplied weapons for long-range strikes on Russian soil.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, citing intelligence reports, claimed last Friday that North Korean troops would be on the battlefield within days.

He previously said his government had information that some 10,000 troops from North Korea were being readied to join Russian forces fighting against his country.

Days before Zelenskyy spoke, American and South Korean officials said there was evidence North Korea had dispatched troops to Russia.

___

Copp reported from Washington. Associated Press writer Barry Hatton in Lisbon, Portugal, contributed to this report.

___

Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

TARA COPP

Copp covers the Pentagon and national security for the Associated Press. She has reported from Afghanistan, Iraq, throughout the Middle East, Europe and Asia.

twitter mailto

AP · by TARA COPP · October 28, 2024

This is a Google translation from a South Korean website that came to me in one of my news feeds.

Excerpts:

“Someone is working on the unification task that will come so quickly,” the source added. “There is so much to do (to prepare for a sudden change in North Korea) that it gives me a headache.”

Sydney Seiler, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and former intelligence analyst for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) under the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), wrote in a CSIS contribution on the 21st (local time), “As North Korea cooperates with nuclear state Russia and China watches to see whether it will use force to maintain its presence in Taiwan and other hotspots in Asia, the scenario of North Korea using nuclear weapons against South Korea in 2025 is not beyond imagination,” adding, “We must prepare countermeasures right now.”

He continued, “Discussions and plans (to respond to the North Korean threat) are already underway, but once the U.S. presidential election is over, it will become an important agenda item between policymakers and military experts in the U.S. and South Korea.”

[Exclusive] “North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia has led to the departure of pro-China economic forces, the base of Kim Jong-un’s support”… “Kim Jong-un’s regime does not have much time left”

“A golden opportunity to end the division of the Korean Peninsula”. . It will be busy

Yoon Seok-yeol Government, Opportunity for Korean Unification… Great Leadership Needed

https://thefreedomandlife.com/%EB%8B%A8%EB%8F%85-%EB%B6%81%ED%95%9C-%EC%9A%B0%ED%81%AC%EB%9D%BC%EC%9D%B4%EB%82%98-%ED%8C%8C%EB%B3%91%EC%9C%BC%EB%A1%9C-%EA%B9%80%EC%A0%95%EC%9D%80-%EC%A7%80%EC%A7%80-%EA%B8%B0%EB%B0%98%EC%9D%B8/?ckattempt=1

2024.10.24. 05:00

North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia is causing a crisis in the regime as pro-Chinese economic forces, which are Kim Jong-un's support base, are protesting, and there is a high possibility that this will lead to a sudden change in North Korea, according to a well-informed source in the U.S., drawing attention.

A well-informed source in the U.S. pointed out that, “North Korea’s Kim Jong-un appears to have abandoned the exquisite tightrope walking that he has been able to achieve between China and Russia, which has led to a crisis in his regime from within.”

The source said, “North Korea’s sending troops to the war in Ukraine was a fatal mistake,” adding, “This has further worsened North Korea-China relations, causing pro-China economic forces, which are their support base, to feel a sense of crisis and defect, which is causing a crisis for the regime.”

A North Korea source well-versed in the situation in North Korea also confirmed, “The so-called ‘money lords’ who currently control the markets in North Korea are wielding power using money as a weapon behind the regime forces supporting Kim Jong-un, and they are beginning to express their antipathy toward the Kim Jong-un regime.”

“A golden opportunity to end the division of the Korean Peninsula”.. It’s going to be busy

The US source emphasized that Kim Jong-un’s miscalculation would be a golden opportunity to end the division of the Korean Peninsula. He explained the basis for this by saying how seriously the US is viewing this situation, and emphasized that “if Trump becomes president, there is a high possibility that he will take care of North Korea.”

In fact, John Kelly, who served as chief of staff under former President Trump, revealed in January 2023 in an interview with a New York Times reporter that “President Trump has constantly wanted war, and in 2017, there was discussion about actually using nuclear weapons against North Korea.”

“Someone is working on the unification task that will come so quickly,” the source added. “There is so much to do (to prepare for a sudden change in North Korea) that it gives me a headache.”

Sydney Seiler, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and former intelligence analyst for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) under the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), wrote in a CSIS contribution on the 21st (local time), “As North Korea cooperates with nuclear state Russia and China watches to see whether it will use force to maintain its presence in Taiwan and other hotspots in Asia, the scenario of North Korea using nuclear weapons against South Korea in 2025 is not beyond imagination,” adding, “We must prepare countermeasures right now.”

He continued, “Discussions and plans (to respond to the North Korean threat) are already underway, but once the U.S. presidential election is over, it will become an important agenda item between policymakers and military experts in the U.S. and South Korea.”

▲ Contributed article by Sydney Seiler, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and former intelligence analyst for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) under the Director of National Intelligence (DNI)

Yoon Seok-yeol Government, Opportunity for Korean Unification… Leadership Needed

If the scenario of North Korea threatening South Korea through cooperation with Russia becomes a reality, as reported by the source, there is an interpretation that the Yoon Seok-yeol government will be able to seize the opportunity for unification of the Korean Peninsula, which is why there is an urgent need for leadership from the Yoon Seok-yeol government.

President Yoon Seok-yeol, seemingly conscious of this international situation, said in a phone call with NATO leader Mark Rutte on the 21st, “The military ties between Russia and North Korea threaten world peace, so we will not sit idly by and do nothing about it,” and “We will actively take step-by-step measures in accordance with the progress of Russia-North Korea military cooperation.”

There is an interpretation that the Yoon Seok-yeol government's moves are based on the calculation that by establishing cooperative relations with NATO and others through direct support of weapons to Ukraine, it will be possible to secure European countries as our allies in the event of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula or a sudden change in North Korea.

There is analysis that NATO's departure from its cautious stance on the rumors of North Korean troops being dispatched to Ukraine is also indicative of NATO's active response along with the lukewarm US response to the rumors of North Korean troops being dispatched ahead of the presidential election.

In a phone call with President Yoon Seok-yeol on the 21st, Prime Minister Rutte expressed "serious concerns about North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia" and said, "We are prepared to actively cooperate with South Korea to respond to Russia-North Korea military cooperation."

5. A War Tomorrow in Seoul: The Possibility of a War on The Korean Peninsula

Excerpts:

The recent DPRK forces deployment to Russia is something North Korea can learn a lot from. Many do not know the fact that China actively co-participated past Russia-ran exercises before Ukraine. One notable case was the Vostok 2018. China sent 3,000 of its finest troops to Russia and learned the C2 (Command and Control) mechanism from Russia.

Not only these soldiers but also the Chinese Intelligence Ship, Dongdiao Class was in Russian water and monitored the Vostok exercise closely. This exercise, in particular, was a grand scale of testing the Russian version of the MTW mechanism. The Multi-Theater Warfare in which the backbone of the US military strategy to counter two different wars in two different theaters at once simultaneously. Obviously, Russia did this exercise of attacking the West, and the Far East together at once not against the imaginary enemy but they even used their soldiers assigned to the red team acting opposition forces. In this exercise, the West is the NATO, and the East is the US Forces in Korea and Japan. When war broke out in Ukraine, Z and V on the Russian machines were no coincidence, they stand for Zapad and Vostok meaning West and East identical features of the Vostok 2018 exercise.

Unlike China’s recent lessons from Russia, North Korean top military brass has no real war experiences and those who have were from the Korean War and are mostly dead by now. So DPRK is now following China’s path, learning the C2 and real war knowledge from Russia.

The definite evidence is all DPRK soldiers sent to Russia are not yet identified as any DPRK officers leading any Russian Forces. Kim Jong Un's trusted KPA General of Special Operations Forces (SOF) Kim Yong Bok is known to dispatch to Ukraine and speculated that he will C2 his own DPRK soldiers. His rank is known as equivalent to between 4-star General and the General of the Army (Field Marshal) in the Western Forces.

Still, it is questionable how much flexibility of operations General Kim would have in the field. There is no way Russian soldiers follow orders from the DPRK officers until DPRK forces prove their efficiency on the battlefield. Even if Russian Forces were distributed under DPRK Forces' C2 in the field, there would be high suspicion of the C2 leadership among Russians. If General Kim survives after all, he will be the one who brings back the newest C2 skills to Pyongyang.

This new military pact in 2024 between the Kremlin and Pyongyang officially made North Korea enter overseas operations but many people do not see this way. North Korean forces are now the same as any other global forces and they can also participate in the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) or SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)’s global exercises run by Moscow and Beijing along with its members from the Middle Asian countries. These adversaries will say these exercises are in the name of “peace” and “anti-terror” operations in conflicting regions where China is doing its A2AD. This new pact between the two let the DPRK Forces free from its Hermit Kingdom and made KJU officially step into the international domain.

It would be no surprise if the DPRK starts sending its troops or naval ships or military machinery to China’s operations around Taiwan or Russia’s other military exercises in the near future. By then, the US would have less leverage against Pyongyang than a year ago because Kim is now hiding behind Putin’s warm bosom.

In this sense, the recent DPRK force deployment to Russia should be strongly condemned and blocked with the ultimate leverage of the US and its like-minded countries with all possible means: military, diplomatic, economic, and sanctions and make Kim Jong Un regret it. If not deterred now, Pyongyang will irritate Washington, Seoul, Tokyo, and other like-minded countries like a stick in the throat. And we will see more KPA soldiers in unexpected waters and grounds like at the South China Sea, or Golan Heights.

A War Tomorrow in Seoul: The Possibility of a War on The Korean Peninsula

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/war-tomorrow-seoul-possibility-korean-peninsula-dong-yon-kim-1s3jc/?trackingId=ymn%2FnJXSQmaIA%2FrtkHZo%2Bw%3D%3D

Dong Yon Kim

US Embassy Seoul | Air Force Veteran

October 26, 2024

by Dong Yon Kim

Background

When it comes to considering any possibility of a war, there are several parts that should be monitored. It is obvious about the force movement: front deployed infantry troops, artillery and armored calvaries positioning behind the infantry, logistics and war apparatus production in the rear of the theaters.

Especially, the defense apparatus production readiness is the most concerning variable that many countries behind war preparation take this account seriously more than ever. This is because of the lesson learned from the ongoing prolonged war situations in Ukraine and Israel.

Based on these two major indications of war: force deployment and war production, one can see that the DPRK is indeed ready for a war or certain operations against the South based on their recent suspicious behaviors.

Since these two are significant variables to calculate the enemy's intent on war, any countries behind the war build-up often hide these movements. One way to hide these would be to act as doing something else like construction or a routine exercise and divide the group of forces and separate their movement on one day and the other day. Avoiding a big chunk of movement at once.

Break Down 1: Force Movement

With the name of fortifying the entire DPRK and worry-free from external interference in the North, North Korean leadership ordered its forces in the frontline to destroy all possible connections to the South including roads, railways, and bridges. Though, many should focus on what has been built new, not what has been destroyed lately.

Some South Korean experts said this is no signal of offensive behavior but rather the defensive posture of the North. Such swayed view and use of the word “defensive” posture has been the DPRK’s hallmarked slogan and propaganda against Seoul and Washington for decades whenever they justify their bellicose provocations. Many do not know the fact that DPRK watchers in South Korea are also heavily divided between pro-DPRK and anti-DPRK and sometimes politically influenced. Such divide is everywhere in the South and changes in experts' tone happen whenever the administration changes because many of these pundits are from government-backed institutions or politically-backed organizations.

Based on this, one must see the current frontline force movement based on more TECHINT evidence and away from others’ judgment. Satellite assessment shows that DPRK is currently stepping toward the South and already reduced the size of the buffer zone DMZ between the two Koreas. Inch by inch North Korea is trying its best to build its newer border barriers and barbed wires closer toward the South and stepped inward to the DMZ. Most of such new border-building movements are happening in the East (동부전선) and the Central area (중부전선), if combining both would end up 16 (9.9 miles) to 20 (12.5 miles) kilometers wide from the East to the Center of the Korean Peninsula.

The size of the buffer zone is reducing tremendously. The DMZ is also divided into the North side and the South side. The original width between the two Korea’s DMZ was about 1,200 meters (0.75 mile) or more but in recent months has been reduced to 800 meters (0.5 mile), and the most recent border is only around 60 meters (0.04 mile) to Military Demarcation Line (MDL). Basically, there is no buffer zone from the North side. The entire DMZ is cut in half horizontally compared to the past.

Right after the Korean War, the width of the DMZ between the two Koreas was 4 Km (2.5 miles). 2Km (1.25 miles) per each side and combined as 4 Km (2.5 miles), but North Korea stepped in toward their 2km-side and ended up only leaving 1.2km (0.75 mile) in the last few years, and the most recent border construction in September start to show this new borderline is only 60 meters (0.04 mile) away from the MDL.

Simply put, a fence of South Korea is destroyed and the North Korean intruders getting closer to the front door of the South Korea.

North Korea did this work in three phases and it resembles how Russia moved its borderline toward Georgia and Crimea around 2014~2015. Russia gradually moved its border closer to Georgia every year inch by inch. The ongoing DPRK movement pattern seems learned strategy from Russia after the Moscow-Pyongyang summit in 2023 and the alliance pact in 2024.

We have not yet witnessed such construction in the West frontline (서부전선) but presumable will do such in the future. This is because the Western border is heavily watched by the ROK (South Korea) Ministry of National Defense (MND) and the USFK, also its geographical setting is more difficult to do similar construction as the other side. Though, the DPRK recently did all kinds of exploitation in the Western border like sending creepy noise through speakers to Gimpo 24/7 that local South Koreans there are outcrying for help from the government.

One noticeable indication along with these forwarded border constructions is that the DPRK voluntarily reported their frontline constructions to the United Nations Command (UNC) amid no talk between the two Koreas and after the rejection of the talk proposal from Washington. Then one must question why the DPRK is letting the UNC know about their movement. This could be their 'Maskirovka' of disguising force movement as construction or making the US Forces in Korea (USFK) relax its muscles.

At their frontline construction site, there were multiple heavy machinery (i.e., China-made Dump Trucks) and hundreds of soldiers were busy moving there. One must understand this in the enemy mindset. Such labor forces can easily turn into war forces once equipped with rifles, some of them are already armed. Another thing is that the DPRK does not care about their forces’ lives meaning these labor workers will not move out of the way if war starts tomorrow. Other mechanized tanks behind them can step on top of these forces if they perform Blitzkrieg-type of quick and deep penetration toward the South just as they did in the Korean War 74 years ago.

In our democratic countries’ mindset is saving and protecting our troops at all costs but North Korea would not care. So, there is a very low possibility that North Korea would move these construction forces out of the way for its tanks, rather they will use them immediately along with other forces from behind and penetrate the South together.

Simply put, these construction forces would be the first bullet takers if a war starts tomorrow and these workers can turn into battle forces once rifles are given to them. It is also in question; these forces seem unarmed based on the footage captured by the South Korean media but North Korea is also well aware of others watching these frontline workers. It is highly possible that these workforces’ armaments are stored at a near distance in order to respond to any possible contingency from the South. It is just not yet witnessed by the South Korean media.

Another part many do not know about is North Korea’s frontline Guard Post settings. North Korean posts at the front have built-in underground tunnels similar to the Hamas. This is well known to all ROK veterans that North Korea planted underground tunnels and channels beneath the ground, some of them are even connected to the rear side hundreds of kilometers away from the border.

This is why many of their artilleries are even hidden inside the caves just as Switzerland’s cliff artillery fortress. Such a military milieu is the hallmark of DPRK artilleries, especially on the Western borders on shores. South Korean MND has routinely counted the number of these artillery holes hidden in the rocky cliffs whether open or closed whenever reading the North’s intention of any provocation.

In summary, the buffer zone on the North side is now all gone. Their buffer zone is only 60 meters or less to the MDL (Military Demarcation Line). While North Korea stepped toward the South inch by inch, many South Korean experts mentioned above or so are keep spreading words of underestimating Pyongyang’s intention behind the war. Or even misleading such movement as a “defensive” posture.

There is no single case in the war history that a country behind the war has not deployed their forces behind the border but all of them disguised such movement as something else. In the famed Yom Kippur War in 1973, Syria and Egypt also covered up their force deployment near the border with Israel as a construction or routine exercise. Russia’s intrusion into Ukraine also camouflaged as a routine joint exercise between Russia and Belarus later turned into a war. This is why any exercise dynamic is another key variable forecasting the upcoming D-Day or H-hour. The latest China’s grand scale exercise around Taiwan is indeed can turn into a war on Taiwan and no joke for now. The Hamas also did the grand scale of exercise a month before its attack on Israel.

Break Down 2: War Production Readiness

Many often forgot about Kim Jong Un’s movement and rare to see them closely. However, Kim Jong Un in recent years from 2020 to 2024, put his highest effort into taking care of factories. A few cases of such which can be remembered would be his visit to the Tractor factory and the Greenhouse. Kim Jong Un even drove one of the tractors at the site and visited other machinery factories in recent years. Do not underestimate tractors. North Korea showcased paramilitary from their recent military parade. The DPRK displayed the array of agricultural machinery towing various mortar launchers and rockets. Even commercial trucks' cargo boxes at the rear were carrying rocket launchers. These cargo covers were camouflaged with their brands of commercial products. Such can be disguised as any other FedEx truck or McDonald's delivery truck. Imagine such trucks start launching rockets at South Koreans. The same tractor Kim Jong Un drove at the factory was indeed a war horse.

On one occasion during Kim's factory visit, even revealed DPRK's CAD (Computer-Aided Design) machines for the first time to the public. He also visited various weaponry factories including light armored tanks and tactical vehicle production factories in August of 2023. At that time he even visited such factories consecutively on August 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 11th.

Another visit was to the grand-scale greenhouse farm in 2022 and a more modern plantation facility in Gangdong town in 2024 with his daughter Ju-ae.

Many failed to correlate DPRK’s plantation factories with Kim’s visit to a botanic garden, [Gardens by the Bay] in Singapore in 2018. Kim Jong Un visited here with his high officials and checked them closely. DPRK’s recent plantation facility was in futuristic greenhouse design that resembled Gardens by the Bay in mind.

Obviously, these plantation sites in North Korea are not for tourist sites but for the mass production of food that can be used in a war. In the DPRK mindset, their major source of North Korean People's Army (KPA) food is not meat but vegetation considering their economic poorness. Vegetables are easily cultivated compared to meat production and even can be consumed raw without any reprocessing and packaging.

Simply put, Kim Jong Un already checked all military apparatus including machinery, weapons, and food. These are signs of war production readiness in North Korea along with its force deployment near the border.

In KJU’s personal checklist for a war seems all checked by now.

Do not forget the fact that sources in North Korea hinted to Seoul that North Korea has transported thousands of new military uniforms from China in the last few years. These are similar to South Korean camo-patterns which are called "digital camo."

Conclusion

Last but not least, besides numerous front-deployed construction forces, many have forgotten about the front-deployed 250s of TEL(Transportation Erector Launcher)s since August 2024. There is no updated news that these TELs have been moved backward or pulled back.

These TELs can be equipped with new Hwasong-11 tactical ballistic missiles which can be even fitted with tactical nuclear warheads. Each TEL can fill with 4 missiles, if combined together with 250 TELs would be 1,000 tactical nukes against the South. These missile variants' range is up to 110 km (69 miles).

North Korea on November of 2023, officially announced its withdrawal from the Inter-Korean Military Pact of September 19 which was signed between the two Koreas under the former Moon administration. This pact was to promote coordination between the two Koreas but many doubted Kim's grudge at that time.

Since the North's withdrawal in 2023, Pyongyang promised to forward-deploy any type of forces near the front line. So the above-mentioned 250 TELs near the frontline is no bragging or word stacking game but a gradual buildup for para bellum.

Additionally, in late October, North Korea’s Kim Yo-jong promised all kinds of retaliation after the alleged ROK MND drones to Pyongyang; the North can do any major provocation against Seoul and blame South Korean drones. They are already in high hands with their justification and made their reason to deliver more proactive powerful operations toward the South.

Combining all ongoing puzzles together, it is only hard to predict the D-Day or specific timeline for the war on Korea but it is highly plausible if anything happens tomorrow, it is no surprise for us based on the current DPRK forces at the border and their apparatus readiness. It is only a matter of timing for Pyongyang along with its alliance Moscow and Beijing. In this regard, if something happens tomorrow, this can lead to the World War III.

Near the US Presidential Election, high chance of provocation even including the 7th nuke test, and more can happen even after the election outcome. Historically, North Korea delivered grand-scale or eye-catching events and provocations right after the major elections. By doing so Pyongyang can estimate the newly arrived administration's stance on DPRK and future dynamics on the Korean Peninsula.

The Recent DPRK force to Russia and beyond

6. N. Korea beefing up security for Kim Jong-un due to assassination possibility: spy agency

Kim is afraid. Very afraid.

This begs the question I always ask: What will we do if we learn today that Kim Jong Un is dead? Have we conducted the necessary preparation for the environment (and especially the information environment) to provide us with options for action when we learn that Kim Jong Un is dead? Are we ready for what comes next (being reactive) and more importantly are we prepared to exploit the conditions that result (being proactive)?

it may be worth rereading Sungmin Cho's work.

Anticipating and Preparing for the Potential Assassination of Kim Jong-Un

Sungmin Cho

Abstract

This paper examines the possibility of the assassination of Kim Jong-un and assesses what type of assassination has the highest probability of occurring in North Korea. Although one cannot predict when and how Kim Jong-un might be assassinated or by whom, we can still compare various types of assassinations for probabilistic analysis. I propose four types of assassination, named in reference to the historical cases that typify each: “Valkyrie,” “Brutus,” “Oswald,” and “Kim Jae-gyu.” Based upon this general typology and its application to the context of North Korea, I argue that the assassination of Kim Jong-un is more likely to be carried out by a lone assassin from the upper echelons of leadership at a private gathering than by a group of plotters during a public event. This analysis has several policy implications for] strategists in Washington and Seoul. It is recommended that they incorporate assassination scenarios more specifically in their contingency planning for the future of North Korea and prepare for timely and direct intervention in the North Korean affairs as Washington did so effectively during the process of German unification.

https://icks.org/n/data/ijks/1482467975_add_file_7.pdf

N. Korea beefing up security for Kim Jong-un due to assassination possibility: spy agency | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · October 29, 2024

By Chae Yun-hwan

SEOUL, Oct. 29 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has been beefing up security for its leader Kim Jong-un due to fears of a possible assassination attempt, South Korea's spy agency told lawmakers Tuesday.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) made the assessment during a parliamentary audit session, according to Rep. Lee Seong-kweun of the ruling People Power Party and Rep. Park Sun-won of the main opposition Democratic Party.

The NIS told lawmakers that the country has raised the level of security around Kim due to possible attempts on his life by operating communications jamming vehicles and making efforts to introduce drone detection equipment, as it noted that Kim's public activities this year reached 110 times, up about 60 percent from last year.

The agency also said the reclusive country stopped using the "juche," or self-reliance, calendar -- a system of year numbering symbolizing its late founder Kim Il-sung -- this month and is strengthening efforts to reinforce Kim Jong-un's position as the nation's sole leader.

Regarding Kim's daughter, known as Ju-ae, the NIS told lawmakers it believes her position has partially been elevated, citing her public appearances, including an instance when she was escorted by Kim Yo-jong, the influential sister of the country's leader.

This file image, provided by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on May 15, 2024, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (R) and his daughter, known by the name Ju-ae. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · October 29, 2024

7. Rutte's statement on DPRK soldiers in Ukraine demand a NATO response

What action can and will NATO take about nK troops?

Rutte's statement on DPRK soldiers in Ukraine demand a NATO response

https://global.espreso.tv/opinion-ruttes-statement-about-dprk-soldiers-in-ukraine-should-be-followed-by-natos-response

Ivanets Sofia

29 October, 2024 Tuesday

12:07

Russia-Ukraine war

Who can guarantee that the North Koreans will not be subsequently redeployed to the Russian border with Estonia, Latvia or directly to the Kaliningrad region?

If we look at the diplomatic “language”, yesterday's statement by the NATO Secretary General regarding the deployment of North Korean troops in Europe is quite clear: “Ukraine's security is our security.“

But statements must be followed by immediate and decisive actions. Actions that are concentrated in time, resourced, and backed by clear political will and courageous leadership.

A war that stretches over time is bound to come to NATO countries. Who is to say that the North Koreans will not later be redeployed to the Russian border with Estonia, Latvia, or directly to the Kaliningrad region, and the Chinese will not later appear on the Belarusian border with Poland or Lithuania?

Therefore, the responses must be adequate to the statements.

If anyone is still discussing preventing escalation (which has already occurred), not spreading the war (which is already happening), or avoiding further security and defense spending (which is no longer realistic), they are not only out of touch with the aggressors but also with the flow of historical time!

The clock is ticking...

Source

About the author. Valeriy Chaly, Ukrainian diplomat, former Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United States

The editors do not always share the views expressed by the blog authors.

8. Some N. Korean generals, troops in Russia might move to front line: spy agency

SIGINT (with Korean linguists) from the ROK and/or the US would be helpful as well.

Excerpts:

On reports the South Korean government was considering sending a team of officials to Kyiv to monitor North Korean troops, the NIS said it was inappropriate to use the term "inspection team" or "interrogation team," without clarifying whether it was planning to send such a team.

The NIS, however, said it was "worth reviewing" the option, stressing it could be a "rare opportunity" to gather military intelligence.

It added that the South Korean government would be obligated to accept North Korean soldiers should they seek defection to the South.

(2nd LD) Some N. Korean generals, troops in Russia might move to front line: spy agency | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · October 29, 2024

(ATTN: ADDS more info in paras 6, 12-15, photo)

By Yi Wonju

SEOUL, Oct. 29 (Yonhap) -- Some North Korean generals and troops sent to Russia to support Moscow's war in Ukraine might have moved to the battlefield zones, South Korea's spy agency told lawmakers Tuesday.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) shared the information with lawmakers during a closed-door audit by the parliamentary intelligence committee, according to Rep. Lee Seong-kweun of the ruling People Power Party and Rep. Park Sun-won of the main opposition Democratic Party.

"The mobilization of troops between North Korea and Russia is ongoing," the NIS was quoted as saying. "We are checking the possibility of the deployment of some (North Korean) personnel, including high-ranking military officials, to the front lines."

The NIS said the Russian military is teaching over 100 military terms in Russian to North Korean soldiers but noted reports of apparent challenges in communication due to language barriers.

The spy agency also assessed that a Russian aircraft traveling between Moscow and Pyongyang on Oct. 23-24 was likely carrying key Russian security officials involved in the North's troop deployment.

A total of 10,900 North Korean troops are expected to be deployed to Russia by December, according to the agency.

National Intelligence Service (NIS) chief Cho Tae-yong (3rd from L, back) and other intelligence officials attend a parliamentary audit session at the NIS headquarters in Seoul on Oct. 29, 2024. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

On North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui's ongoing visit to Russia, the NIS said she is likely to have discussed additional deployments and compensation for the troops.

As for the possibility of North Korea's provocations, the spy agency said the North could launch hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missiles or intercontinental ballistic missiles.

"With the purchase of advanced parts and technological cooperation from Russia, North Korea appears to be ready to relaunch a military reconnaissance satellite after failing in May," the NIS said. "We are keeping close tabs on the possibility of its seventh nuclear test following the U.S. presidential elections."

The NIS also said some 4,000 North Korean workers were sent to Russia this year.

This Oct. 18, 2024, footage posted on X by the Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security of Ukraine shows what appears to be North Korean soldiers receiving apparent Russian gear. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

On Monday, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) confirmed that North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia's western front-line Kursk region -- a development feared to further escalate the protracted war in Ukraine.

Regarding Ukraine's claim that more than 3,000 "mercenaries" from North Korea have begun training on the ground in Kursk, the NIS acknowledged it as a possibility but said it could not confirm Kyiv's assertion.

On reports the South Korean government was considering sending a team of officials to Kyiv to monitor North Korean troops, the NIS said it was inappropriate to use the term "inspection team" or "interrogation team," without clarifying whether it was planning to send such a team.

The NIS, however, said it was "worth reviewing" the option, stressing it could be a "rare opportunity" to gather military intelligence.

It added that the South Korean government would be obligated to accept North Korean soldiers should they seek defection to the South.

North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui (C) shakes hands with Russian Ambassador to North Korea Alexander Matsegora before leaving for Moscow on Oct. 28, 2024, in this photo provided by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · October 29, 2024

9. N. Korean advance unit possibly moving to war front line in Russia: S. Korean spy agency

Moving toward integration in the RSO&I process. (reception, staging, onward movement, and integration)

(3rd LD) N. Korean advance unit possibly moving to war front line in Russia: S. Korean spy agency | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · October 29, 2024

(ATTN: CHANGES headline, lead; UPDATES with more details from audit; ADDS byline)

By Yi Wonju and Kim Seung-yeon

SEOUL, Oct. 29 (Yonhap) -- An advance team of North Korean troops, including a ranking Army general, is believed to be making its way to the front lines of the war in Russia near Ukraine, South Korea's spy agency told lawmakers Tuesday.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) has obtained the intelligence about the troop movement and is verifying the details, according to Rep. Lee Seong-kweun of the ruling People Power Party and Rep. Park Sun-won of the main opposition Democratic Party.

The NIS shared the information to lawmakers during a closed-door parliamentary audit.

The lawmakers quoted the NIS as saying that it is verifying the intelligence that Kim Yong Bok, deputy chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, is in the advance unit moving to the front line.

"Kim is already there, in the sense that he is part of an advance team related to the KN-23 missile," the NIS said, referring to the North's short-range ballistic missiles.

Kim is known as a close aide to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Reports have said that he has arrived in Russia to supervise North Korean troops dispatched there for use in the war against Ukraine.

The NIS told lawmakers that the intelligence may suggest the deployment of the North Korean troops to the Kursk border region near Ukraine -- a key battlefield that Russia is struggling to take back after a Ukrainian incursion in August -- "is imminent."

The NIS also estimated that most of the North Korean soldiers sent to Russia are in their early 20s, with some possibly in their late teens, but said they should not be underestimated because they likely have undergone all basic training as special forces, known as the "Storm Corps."