The Lowry Letter®

Week of 2/2/2023

One of our favorite movies is Groundhog Day. Living in Florida, the predictions of the Punxsutawney Phil don’t feel like they have a lot of relevance, but we hope the predicted 6 more weeks of winter aren’t too taxing for our cold climate friends.

LeBron James is chasing Kareem Abdul’s all-time points record. It may be the last breakable record in the NBA.

Yale scientists think they have a test that can indicate the presence of mystery viruses, illnesses for which we don’t yet have tests.

Be careful with ChatGPT and other AI tools. They can produce some wonderful things, but some issues with accuracy show it is still a work-in-progress. Here, an attorney asks for some cases on a topic and ChatGPT complies, by making them up.

Paul Ehrlich has been wrong about many things for many years, yet he is still considered an expert in the field of chronic doomsaying. As the author of this article says, “Always wrong, never in doubt."

Q: What do you think we can expect from the rest of the year?

A: The economy continues to grow, while concerns about a recession loom. The case for recession relies on the impact of continued Federal Reserve interest rate increases, combined with reduced government spending and/or less consumption (especially in housing). The case against recession is based on the Fed being able to ease the pace and magnitude of rate hikes in time to keep lending/borrowing and consumer spending moving in a positive direction.

You can make a convincing case for more market pain OR a nice recovery as inflation eases. We are in the cautious camp, but the uncertainty reinforces the importance of remaining invested consistent with your goals and time frame especially during times like the present. The risk of being unprepared for a rapid recovery, and they seem very rapid these days, has not gone away and often outweighs the danger of a correction or pullback for long-term investment performance.