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On 30 November 2022, the official media outlet of the Islamic State made an unprecedented announcement. The disclosure of the death of one Caliph, Abu Al Hassan Al Hashimi Al Qurashi was seemingly spoken in the same breath as the naming of a new caliph, Abu Al Hussain Al Hussaini Al Qurashi.
It is completely unheard of for a major jihadist organization to announce a new leader even before a whisper of the previous leader's death reaches the media. It is TRAC's assessment that IS Central Command was looking to get out ahead of the news and avoid the pitfalls the Taliban (IEA) suffered by pretending their leader, Mullah Omar was alive for more than two years after his death, by trying to prove their piousness over the Taliban's; an assessment that IS insiders support.
At the time of the announcement, no nation had claimed responsibility of the Caliph’s death. The audio message that was released was completely ambiguous as to the location or method of the previous Caliph's demise. All that was mentioned was that he was killed in ‘battle,’ but the next day, the official US press release stated that in a CTO, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) took out Caliph Abu Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi in the Syrian city of Jassim, and photos immediately started circulating.
|  | Image Above: Photo of the deceased Islamic State Caliph, Abu Al Hassan Al Hashimi Al Qurashi that was circulated. | |
Since the announcement, supporters from around the globe have been issuing new Bayah’s (oaths) to the new Caliph. By next week's newsletter, we should have an estimate of the total number of IS global fighters.
Though hundreds of individual pledges have been pouring in, Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) was the first IS franchise pictured in official IS Telegram channels to officially pledge allegiance to the new Caliph, carrying out the pledge in Borno State. This only reenforces TRAC’s assessment that IS Central is endeavoring to make Africa the land of Hijra and Caliphate 2.0 and of all the current IS franchises globally, ISWA is the most powerful. Additionally, since the pledge was carried out in Borno State, it remains clear that Borno is the most important and strategic location for ISWA in Nigeria.
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TRAC Insight:
Overview of Islamic State Global Operations for November 2022 (Major Threat Areas: Battle of Jelbana, Death of the Caliph, Possible Expansion to Brazil)
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Image: November 2022 Overall Operations of Islamic State Globally | |
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The month of November witnessed another fall in Islamic State (IS) operations around the world, which is not completely unexpected. In comparison to October, November saw a 17% decrease in Islamic State-claimed attacks, with IS officially claiming responsibility for 78 attacks.
TRAC believes that Islamic State affiliates carried out many more attacks in November than what was claimed, however, given the remote locations in which these affiliates operate and the ineffective communication services, contacting IS central command is likely constrained. It is likely that the lack of official Islamic State Central Command's claims is a strategic move. With the world's focus on Ukraine/Russia and the impact that has globally, IS has been quietly fortifying worldwide. The slower claims rate could mean either that IS Central Command has a major communications problem with their franchises - or- it is intentionally downplaying that it remains the world's most wealthy terrorist group in the world and is planning as such.
Even though Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) carried out the highest number of operations among all other affiliates, even this affiliate saw a 38% decrease in its activities from last month. Likewise, the usual high-activity areas like Iraq and Syria witnessed a significant 21% decrease in claimed attacks. Notwithstanding, there have been a large number of suspected Islamic State attacks in Iraq and Syria attributed to them by TRAC using tactics, targets, and ideologies associated with the attacks.
As noticed last month, the Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) did not witness any increase in its activities in the Sahel. However, as mentioned in the few official claims, TRAC has attributed to a vast number of assaults that have not been claimed. It should be noted that ISGS is taking a significant lead in its fight against Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM). While it seems like Islamic State is slowing down in its operations, TRAC believes that the group is busy planning something big and likely is not in regular touch with its affiliates.
Of particular importance is Islamic State Sinai (ISS / Jamaat Ansar al-Dawla al-Islamiya fi Bayt al-Maqdis). ISS militants have been executing a sustained campaign against Egyptian special forces in Northern Sinai since 11 August 2022, a battle that IS Central Command has often called the Battle of Jelbana. The campaign started with ISS fighters capturing Jelbana, located only 15 km from the Suez canal, as well as part of the international highway which leads to the canal, and since then, ISS has carried out approximately 30 attacks in the Sinai region of Egypt. This clearly indicates that ISS has an effective strategy and substantial insider information, without which it would be impossible to target soldiers of such secretive stature within the military.
In addition to the operations in Northern Sinai, ISS has also expanded itself by conducting operations outside its usual territory. The month of November witnessed ISS operations outside the Sinai Peninsula in the Ismailia Province on the Western bank of the Suez Canal. Furthermore, the group has intensified its activities in El-Qantara (Qantara Sharq), which is just 45 minutes away from the Suez Canal. The recent intensification of ISS activities in and around the Suez Canal has forced TRAC to speculate that the group is planning to take over the canal in the near future.
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In addition to the operations in Northern Sinai, ISS has also expanded itself by conducting operations outside its usual territory. The month of November witnessed ISS operations outside the Sinai Peninsula in the Ismailia Province on the Western bank of the Suez Canal. Furthermore, the group has intensified its activities in El-Qantara (Qantara Sharq), which is just 45 minutes away from the Suez Canal. The recent intensification of ISS activities in and around the Suez Canal has forced TRAC to speculate that the group is planning to take over the canal in the near future. | |
Photo: Islamic State Sinai Expansion Map – 2 December 2022 | |
Last month also witnessed Islamic State Insiders reporting that IS supporters have expanded into Brazil, establishing itself in two areas in the southern regions of South America's biggest country. The first area is near the border with Paraguay and Bolivia and second, near Uruguay, which lies near the Argentine border. This indicates that Islamic State has at least two different units working in the country. Not only will these locations and the Brazilian Muslim population help Islamic State establish itself firmly in southern Brazil, but it will allow them to eventually expand to the Brazilian neighbors and take control of the continent like it did in Africa. | |
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TRAC Incident Report:
Suspicious Packages, Letter Bombs, Targeted Two More
Ukrainian Embassies Abroad, Romania and Denmark
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Image: Ukrainian Embassy, Copenhagen, Denmark | |
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On 06 December 2022, the Ukrainian embassies in Romania and Denmark became the latest victims in a wave of threatening packages and envelopes targeting Ukraine and its alliances.
On 30 November, a letter bomb IED detonated at the Ukrainian Embassy in Madrid, injuring the staff member who was handling the letter. The envelope bomb contained a small homemade explosive.
On 02 December, authorities were alerted after a second suspicious package was received at the Ukrainian Embassy in Madrid. A prompt evaluation of the package ruled out the presence of an explosive charge inside the cardboard container. The authorities revealed that its content was an eye of an animal. According to the investigators the package was sent from outside Spain.
On the same day, several similar packages containing animal eyes and viscera were delivered to Ukrainian Embassies in Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Croatia and Italy, as well as general consulates in Naples, Italy, Kraków, Poland, and Brno in the Czech Republic. A video released by police officials showed bomb squad specialists in hazmat suits responding to the emergency at Brno’s Consulate. It was then confirmed the blood-stained package contained animal remains. rests. K9 units were then deployed to search the Consulate’s gardens.
It is also must be noted that on 05 and 06 December, Glasgow International Airport, Scotland, and Prague’s Vaclav Havel Airport, Czech Republic, were evacuated due to an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) alert which TRAC contends to be in connection with the said wave of threats.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Worshippers Abducted from Mosque in Maigamji Village,
Funtua Town, Katsina State, Nigeria
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Image: Map where the abduction took place. | |
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In the evening of 05 December, during evening prayers, suspected bandits invaded a mosque in Maigamji Village, Funtua Town, Katsina State, Nigeria. Distrusting the attackers' instructions to follow, the worshippers started running in different directions. The attackers responded by shooting at the fleeing parishioners, injuring an undisclosed number of people and subsequently, kidnapping another 46 others.
This assault fits the modus operandi of Bandits operating in Katsina State. This village sits along the Gusau-Funtua highway, which runs parallel to the A126 highway and has a known bandit presence. The road has in effect been rendered completely unusable due to the danger it now presents.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Six Soldiers Lost their Lives During an Ambush by Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) Dissidents, Buenos Aires, Cauca Department, Colombia
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TRAC Video Report:
People’s Defense Forces (PDF) Assault on Military Junta in Nganzun, Mandalay Region,
Myanmar
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TRAC Incident Report: Delayed Double Tap Bombing Kills Three Railway Repair Workers and Injured Four More, Tha Pho Area, Sadao District, Songkhla Province, Thailand | | | | |
