Quotes of the Day:

"If you feel pain, you're alive. If you feel other people's pain, you're a human being."

- Leo Tolstoy

"We protect our minds by an elaborate system of abstractions, ambiguities, metaphors, and similes from the reality we do not wish to know too clearly; 

we lie to ourselves, in order that we may still have the excuse of ignorance, the alibi of stupidity and incomprehension,

- Aldous Huxley

“Strategic warriors operate much differently. They think ahead toward their long-term goals, decide which fights to avoid and which are inevitable, know how to control and channel their emotions. 

When forced to fight, they do so with indirection and subtle maneuver, making their manipulations hard to trace. In this way they can maintain the peaceful exterior so cherished in these political times.”

- Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War

1. North Korea Discloses “New” Nuclear Capabilities: Should We Be Worried?

2. North Korea may be using Iranian drones

3. Ukrainian PM says partnership with S. Korea continues to develop

4. Disused U.S. satellite misses Korea as it reenters atmosphere

5. Yoon threatens to send drones 'deep' into North Korea

6. South Korean drones sent to North was 'exercise of self-defense': military

7. [ANALYSIS] US may ask S. Korea to pay more for strategic assets

8.  Envoys show expectations for Korea's bigger role in Indo-Pacific

9. China suspends visas for South Koreans in virus retaliation

10. Will South Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Make a Difference?

11. Pentagon awards $40M ‘Vampire’ contract for Ukraine’s drone defenses

12. World Atlas: N. Korea has 4th Largest Army in the World

13.  S. Korea, U.S. reaffirm efforts to address IRA concerns in high-level consultations

14. Ministry requests defectors' restraint for anti-Pyongyang leaflet campaign using drones

15. Yoon's office keeps open communication channel with NK rights activists

1. North Korea Discloses “New” Nuclear Capabilities: Should We Be Worried?

Sober analysis from Dr. Bruce Bechtol.

Excerpt:

The biggest question that all of this raises is how does this change the threat? At the very least, it shows that Pyongyang has now chosen to focus on a two-headed nuclear threat to the ROK-U.S. alliance. Using nuclear weapons on-peninsula is not a new concept for North Korea, but it is a concept that has not been focused on as much as the threat Pyongyang has repeatedly shown that it wants to project against the United States, and to a lesser extent, Japan. The use of accurate, evasive systems, whether they are new SRBMs or MRLs, significantly changes the status quo, even if these systems are only using conventional munitions. But if North Korea’s bluster about at least one of these systems being nuclear capable (the 600 MM MRL’s) is true, this is a paradigm shift and a game changer. We should keep in mind that the North Koreans would be very unlikely to have this capability unless it has been proliferated to them by either the Russians or the Chinese.

North Korea Discloses “New” Nuclear Capabilities: Should We Be Worried?

19fortyfive.com · by Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. · January 9, 2023

What Is North Korea Planning? As part of a significant speech Kim Jong-un gave on the last day of 2022, he made several key disclosures. Kim stated that his nation would develop a new ICBM and “exponentially” increase its nuclear capability. In the same speech, he also stated that North Korea’s nuclear weapons could now be used for offensive operations.

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In September of 2022, North Korea initiated a law that allowed for preemptive nuclear weapons use – though Pyongyang’s government is hardly guided by rule of law as practiced by most nation-states. Of interest, Kim also referred to North Korea’s “tactical” use of nuclear weapons, citing his goal of the North having a “quick counterstrike capability,” and designating a new goal to mass produce tactical nuclear weapons. Kim has also stated that the often (over the past three years) and recently tested 600 MM multiple rocket launchers (MRLs) in Pyongyang’s arsenal can hit anywhere in South Korea – a close-to-accurate statement – and can be equipped with tactical nuclear capabilities. Also of importance, Kim stated that “30 units” (likely meaning batteries) of the 600 MM MRLs will be deployed – presumably close to the DMZ and pointed at key nodes in South Korea.

Analysts Discuss Kim’s Statements

The announcements made by Kim, as carried by KCNA, caused some debate among analysts. What exactly does “tactical” nuclear capability mean to the North Koreans? Apparently, this means nuclear weapons that would be used on-peninsula. Strategic nuclear weapons would of course likely be weapons that could be used to target places like Japan (such as the No Dong) or the United States (such as the Hwasong-15).

This is rather unusual because, in the past North Korea has mostly talked about using its “nuclear deterrent” against the United States or one of our key allies in East Asia, such as Japan. This has been the focus of most of the propaganda that North Korea has put out, though it appears that Kim Jong-un has now decided to change the focus of how he wants the world to perceive his nuclear capability. It now seems that Kim has told his military and his scientists that he wants to project a two-headed threat – the on-peninsula threat – which the North Koreans call “tactical” – and the strategic threat as seen in the nuclear capable Hwasong-15 tests and the nuclear tests that we have seen to date.

Proclaiming a Threat

The North Korean proclamation of the 600 MM system as a nuclear threat is curious. The reasons for this are more technical than political. Over the past four years the North Koreans have tested a variety of missile systems, not the least of which is the extremely accurate and evasive Iskander missile look-alike that North Korea seems to have conducted several successful test launches (it is likely the North Koreans got this system from the Russians). The Iskandar is an SRBM that has been used successfully in conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan war. This would seem to be a better candidate (among several other systems) for a “tactical” nuclear weapon, and it is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

The 600 MM MRL’s are a system that would more typically be used to target such things as aviation flight lines, troop concentrations, weapons depots, military headquarters etc. Thus, it is curious that Kim has designated this system as Pyongyang’s “tactical” counter-strike capability. The other issue is the miniaturization of the warhead. It is not clear that North Korea has developed (or been given) the technology to have a nuclear warhead small enough to put on a rocket fired from a long-range MRL system such as the one that Kim described. What is clear – and a threat right now – is that 30 additional batteries of 600 MM systems would exponentially change the kind of threat that North Korea could project in wartime against South Korean and U.S. troops and key military facilities (particularly Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base) throughout the peninsula – even if only used as a conventional weapons system.

New and Unknown Armaments

The other aspect of the threat that Kim Jong-un projected in his speech was the development of a “new” ICBM that would give North Korea a “quick counter-strike” capability. Kim did not further expound on what this “new” ICBM for 2023 would be. Some analysts have stated that it could be a solid-fuel ICBM that could be fueled and fired faster than the liquid-fueled ICBMs that North Korea has test-launched to date.

Of course, if North Korea was able to covertly fuel a liquid-powered ICBM, a solid-fuel system would not add significantly to the nuclear threat against the United States. North Korea may have been referring to the Hwasong-17 (also liquid-fueled), though thus far, its flight tests have yielded mixed results at best. If in fact Kim Jong-un was referring to a solid-fuel ICBM, then a test launch in 2023 would be extremely fast progress. North Korea only very recently did an engine test of a solid-fuel engine that many project could potentially be used in an ICBM. Nevertheless, if this is what Kim was referring to, it will be an addition to the threat that is quite troubling.

North Korea Presents Two-Headed Nuclear Threat

The biggest question that all of this raises is how does this change the threat? At the very least, it shows that Pyongyang has now chosen to focus on a two-headed nuclear threat to the ROK-U.S. alliance. Using nuclear weapons on-peninsula is not a new concept for North Korea, but it is a concept that has not been focused on as much as the threat Pyongyang has repeatedly shown that it wants to project against the United States, and to a lesser extent, Japan. The use of accurate, evasive systems, whether they are new SRBMs or MRLs, significantly changes the status quo, even if these systems are only using conventional munitions. But if North Korea’s bluster about at least one of these systems being nuclear capable (the 600 MM MRL’s) is true, this is a paradigm shift and a game changer. We should keep in mind that the North Koreans would be very unlikely to have this capability unless it has been proliferated to them by either the Russians or the Chinese.

It will thus be important that the United States makes it very clear to North Korea that any use of “tactical” nuclear weapons will be considered to be exactly the same as the use of “strategic” nuclear weapons, and will be responded to the same way. In addition, the U.S. and the UN need to step up the pressure campaign on North Korea’s illicit and illegal financial networks that support its development of WMD and related capabilities.

These networks launder the dirty money that North Korea earns from proliferation, cyber theft, and other illegal activities that violate international law and disrupt banking systems all over the world. Putting pressure on these illegal financial networks will disrupt and contain North Korea’s ability to threaten its neighbor in the South and the United States.

Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr. (Ph.D. Union Institute), is an award-winning professor of political science at Angelo State University and a retired Marine. The author of five books on North Korea, he is also the current President of the International Council on Korean Studies. He specializes in North Korean military and counter-proliferation issues. Bechtol is a 19FortyFive contributing editor.

19fortyfive.com · by Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. · January 9, 2023

2. North Korea may be using Iranian drones

Not surprising given all that north Korea has provided to Iran in the form of missile and nuclear technology.

We should keep in mind that north Korea's actions also support China and Russia by creating security dilemmas for the ROK/US alliance.

But as I have written, the most important effect the north is trying to achieve is subversion of South Korea, its government and its society through the employment of political warfare. Politicians on both sides need to recognize this and accept it and not allow themselves to play into the regime's hands.

And US military bases are under greater risks from weapons such as the KN-23 and the 600mm Multiple rocket launcher.

North Korea may be using Iranian drones

That would explain South Korea’s recent failure to shoot them down and would expose US military bases to grave new risks

asiatimes.com · by Stephen Bryen and Shoshana Bryen · January 9, 2023

On December 26, five North Korean drones penetrated South Korean airspace, with one or more flying around the northern part of the South Korean capital, Seoul. Despite the fact that the South Korean air force scrambled jets and helicopters and reportedly chased the invaders, not one was shot down.

If the information available is correct, the scramble drill by the South Korean air force went on for five hours. But known North Korean drones do not have the range or the endurance to stay in the air for much more than an hour, and they could easily outrun their ground-based controllers. Drone crashes in 2013 and 2017 attest to that.

These, then, were different. But how different?

In the 1990s, North Korea began working on a drone arsenal that included surveillance and attack models from Russia, China and, oddly, the United States. The US drone was not a gift, of course. It likely came to North Korea from Syria. But while it had some useful features, 30 years later it is obsolete and of little value.

China provided some commercial drones that North Korea used to collect intelligence on South Korea. The drones were not very good, however, and at least two of them crashed over South Korean territory.

Crashed North Korean drone shown off by South Korea in 2017. Photo: Yonhap

These days the Chinese have to be very careful about supplying drones to countries that are under sanction, including North Korea. While they might smuggle some components to the regime, the economic and political consequences of being caught are ones that China’s leaders are keen to avoid.

Russia seems an unlikely supplier. So where is North Korea getting drones these days? Iran? Perhaps.

North Korea has a long military and strategic relationship with Iran. Pyongyang has provided missile technology and there is reason to believe it continues to be involved in Iran’s nuclear weapons programs.

On September 6, 2007, Israeli air force F-15s and F-16s, supported by special Elint aircraft, destroyed a North Korean-Iranian-Syrian nuclear complex at al-Kibar in the Deir ez-Zor Governorate in Syria. The reactor, which could process plutonium, was based on North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor.

The Ryongchon train explosion in 2004 that killed a dozen or more Syrian technicians may also have been linked to the reactor project.

The link there is clear, and Iran was in a position to supply North Korea having amply demonstrated its drones in action with proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Gaza and Yemen, as well as having supplied them to Russia for the Ukraine war.

Iranian drones offer North Korea the same benefits they offer Russia. There are kamikaze drones, including the Shahed-136, and combined surveillance-attack drones similar to Mohajer-6. There are a number of other drones and variants in Iran’s arsenal.

There is no direct proof that North Korea is fielding Iranian drones. However, the Shahed-136 has sufficient range (1,800 to 2,500 kilometers) and endurance (6 to 8 hours) while an unclassified report says that there is a reconnaissance version of the Shahed-136.

As a kamikaze drone, it can be programmed to operate autonomously, relying on the Russian GLONASS GPS or on the US GPS system. It may also be capable of using China’s BeiDou GPS.

If operating as a reconnaissance system, it would either store imagery and other data onboard, or transmit data back to its ground controller. The Shahed-136 has a radio range of around 150 kilometers. It is made of plastic and therefore hard to detect on radar.

Judging from reports about the drone incursions into South Korea, it appears the unmanned aerial vehicles were given different waypoints from which they were possibly collecting data and photos. Given the difficulty the South Korean air force had in tracking them, it also seems that the flight paths were changed in flight.

South Korea is now searching for ways to counter North Korea’s new drone threat. Not only is this important for its own security, but it has implications for American bases and strategic assets in South Korea.

There is reported interest by South Korea’s military in Sky Spotter, a sophisticated electro-optical system manufactured by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.

The Sky Spotter finding intruders. Illustration: Rafael Advanced Defense Systems

Sky Spotter is a passive detection system that cannot be jammed. Apparently, it can detect low radar cross-section targets, meaning it could pick up stealth-like drones made of plastics or composites.

Sky Spotter is also able to distinguish targets using built-in artificial intelligence so that it is not fooled by birds, a problem that the South Korean air force encountered.

But finding intruders is not sufficient. Beyond Sky Spotter, South Korea will need effective kill systems, which could include air defense missiles and guns, radars, lasers, jammers and more.

All the parts have to be integrated to optimize responses to future incidents over South Korean airspace. Using fighter aircraft to chase drones is wasteful, expensive and mostly ineffective.

If it turns out that North Korea is relying on Iranian drones, then US sanctions on Iran’s drone makers recently announced by the Biden administration, and effective control of drone technology exports, could impact not only Iran and Russia but also North Korea.

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. Follow him on Twitter @stevebryen.

Shoshana Bryen is senior director of The Jewish Policy Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly. She has more than 30 years experience as an analyst of US defense policy and Middle East affairs, and has run programs and conferences with American military personnel in a variety of countries.

asiatimes.com · by Stephen Bryen and Shoshana Bryen · January 9, 2023

3. Ukrainian PM says partnership with S. Korea continues to develop

​South Korea: A partner in the Arsenal of Democracy.

​

Ukrainian PM says partnership with S. Korea continues to develop | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · January 10, 2023

SEOUL, Jan. 10 (Yonhap) -- Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said his country and South Korea continue to develop their partnership as he spoke during an interview with Yonhap News Agency last week.

"The partnership between Ukraine and South Korea continue to develop. During the interview in Kyiv, I spoke to @YonhapNews about the main directions & opportunities for cooperation with South Korea in Ukraine's recovery and post-war reconstruction projects," Shmyhal tweeted Monday (local time).

He also attached a related photo and Yonhap's English-language article.

In an exclusive interview with Yonhap on Thursday, Shmyhal said Russia has created the world's largest mine field in his country and Ukraine is doing everything it can to quickly end the war.

It was the first time Shmyhal has conducted an interview with an Asian news outlet following the start of the war with Russia. It was also the first exclusive interview for an Asian media outlet in more than 2 1/2 years in office.

This image, captured from the Twitter account of Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Jan. 10, 2023, shows Shmyhal speaking in an interview with Yonhap News Agency on Jan. 5 at the government complex in Kyiv. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · January 10, 2023

4. Disused U.S. satellite misses Korea as it reenters atmosphere

Dodged a bullet.

Monday

January 9, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

Disused U.S. satellite misses Korea as it reenters atmosphere

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/01/09/business/tech/Korea-satellite-US/20230109190302000.html

Officials from the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries look at a trajectory prediction for NASA's retired Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), monitoring the U.S. satellite reentering the Earth's atmosphere, on Monday at the government complex in Sejong. [NEWS1]

A U.S. satellite reentering the atmosphere passed over the Korean Peninsula Monday afternoon.

Earlier in the day, the Ministry of Science and ICT warned that NASA’s retired Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) was expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere at around 12:20 p.m. to 1:20 p.m. possibly in the regions around the Korean Peninsula. An emergency meeting was held, headed by Minister Lee Jong-ho.

Around 15:20 p.m., the ministry announced that the 5,400-pound satellite had likely passed over the Peninsula. No damage has been reported.

As most of the satellite was expected to burn up at high altitudes, NASA estimated that the risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth was extremely low, at approximately 1 in 9,400. Yet concerns remained over some of the debris surviving reentry. 

The country stayed on alert until the threat was cleared in the afternoon.

Due to concerns over possible debris falling from the satellite, flights arriving at or departing from the local airports were delayed from 12:10 p.m. until 12:54.

The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries monitored the satellite's trajectory down to the Earth at its control center in the government complex in Sejong. A spokesperson for the Korea Air Force under the Defense Ministry also said that “the Air Force’s situation room for monitoring space data kept real-time cooperation with the United States” during the incident.

The details on the location or the time of any contact with the Earth's surface are to be announced by the U.S.-led Combined Space Operation Center.

The center declares a satellite has reentered if they successfully observe the event or they lose the track of the reentering satellite for 90 minutes to 2 hours.

The ERBS was launched on Oct. 5, 1984, by the Space Shuttle Challenger and completed its mission in 2005.

On Nov. 4, the Science Ministry said that debris from China’s Changzheng 5B launch vehicle may crash onto the Korean Peninsula but later confirmed that the spacecraft’s trajectory did not involve Korea.

The Chinese launch vehicle crashed into the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of South America.

BY SHIN HA-NEE [shin.hanee@joongang.co.kr]

5. Yoon threatens to send drones 'deep' into North Korea

Monday

January 9, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

Yoon threatens to send drones 'deep' into North Korea

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/01/09/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-drone/20230109173611196.html

Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Byung-joo makes remarks on last month's North Korean drone intrusion at the National Assembly in Yeouido, western Seoul on Friday. [YONHAP]

Seoul could send drones deep into North Korea if Pyongyang stages another drone incursion into the South, a high-ranking presidential official told the JoongAng Ilbo on Monday.

“If the North sends unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) into South Korea again, we will not just respond passively by shooting them down,” the official said on condition of anonymity. As part of its response, Seoul would send its own drones “deep into North Korea in accordance with the principle of proportionality,” he said.

“We may send UAVs as far as Pyongyang and the launch station at Tongchang-ri,” he continued in a thinly-veiled warning to the North. 

Tongchang-ri in North Pyongan Province is home to the North’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station, where the regime launched a test satellite on Dec. 19 as part of a what it called a final test for the development of its first reconnaissance satellite.

Another official from the presidential office told the JoongAng Ilbo that President Yoon Suk Yeol “ordered the establishment of a drone unit under the command of the South Korean armed forces and the production of small stealth drones within the year.”

In the immediate aftermath of last month’s drone invasion, Yoon ordered two or three drones to be sent into the North for every drone that infiltrates the South.

The president’s directive was criticized on Sunday by Democratic Party (DP) spokesperson Park Sung-joon, who called it an “impromptu and pathetic response” that would violate the armistice that ended hostilities in the 1950-53 Korean War.

The high-ranking presidential official who spoke to the JoongAng Ilbo bristled at the DP spokesman’s statement.

“Which country does the DP serve, and how could they put out such a statement?” he asked, arguing that “exercising our right to self-defense against North Korean provocations is not a violation of the armistice under international law.”

The Defense Ministry and conservative People Power Party (PPP) also issued statements over the weekend that took aim at the DP for criticizing the president’s response measures.

“The flight of our military’s drones into the North is a corresponding measure undertaken as part of our right to self-defense,” a ministry spokesman said in a written statement sent to reporters on Sunday.

The ministry statement argued that forceful measures were required in response to clear violations of the armistice by the North, which included breaching the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) with drones and sending them as far as central Seoul. 

The ministry also said that the armistice does not limit the authority of military commanders to “exercise the right to self-defense in responding appropriately to clearly hostile acts.” 

Chung Jin-suk, the PPP’s interim chief, singled out the DP for criticism during a party leadership meeting on Sunday.

“The Democratic Party is pouring out bizarre, absurd remarks,” Chung said, arguing that the DP “is acting in a way that makes it resemble a North Korean mouthpiece.” 

PPP floor leader Joo Ho-young also blasted the DP, arguing that “it is the Democratic Party's intention to tie our hands and let the North do as it pleases.”

BY PARK TAE-IN, MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]

6. South Korean drones sent to North was 'exercise of self-defense': military

South Korean drones sent to North was 'exercise of self-defense': military

The Korea Times · by 2023-01-09 17:55 | North Korea · January 9, 2023

South Korea's military conducts an anti-drone exercise in Paju, a city near the inter-Korean border, Jan. 5. Newsis 

Communication failure under scrutiny after bungled response

By Jung Min-ho

The military refuted the opposition party's claim on Monday that South Korean drones sent to North Korea were a violation of the inter-Korean truce, claiming that the South exercised its right of self-defense.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) defended President Yoon Suk Yeol's eye-for-an-eye response to five North Korean drones that crossed over the inter-Korean border, Dec. 26, in a clear violation of a 2018 military pact signed between the two sides.

"The border incursion by the North Korean drones was a provocative act that apparently violated the Korean Armistice Agreement, the (1991) Inter-Korean Basic Agreement and the (2018) Sept. 19 military agreement," Lee Sung-jun, a spokesman for the JCS, told reporters. "It was a proportional response and an exercise of the right to self-defense … Article 51 (of Chapter VII) of the United Nations Charter guarantees the right to engage in self-defense, which will be investigated by the United Nations Command (UNC)."

The remarks came a day after the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) criticized Yoon for the retaliatory response it claimed was a violation of the military pact, under which the two sides agreed to cease hostile activities and take steps to build military trust.

Defector group says it will use drones for leaflet campaign against N. Korea

Rep. Park Sung-joon, its spokesman, said both sides are mutually at fault now due to the decision, and share responsibility for what happened that day.

After being briefed on the drone invasion, the president reprimanded the military's bungled response and ordered the top brass to send drones to the North. A week later, he also said he will consider suspending the military pact if Pyongyang violates the border again.

Lee gave more details on how the military failed, admitting that there was a communication problem. An inspection is under way to determine what went wrong. A separate investigation by the UNC is also expected to determine whether Seoul's action is justifiable.

"Our response was inadequate in terms of information-sharing about the situation between the First Army Corps and the Capital Defense Command (CDC) … The responsibility of Seoul's air defense, including the P-73 zone, falls on CDC. Therefore, all relevant units are targets of the inspection," he said.

The targets include the Presidential Security Service, an organization in charge of the safety of the president, he added.

According to the military, its radar detected the drones violating the inter-Korean border at 10:19 a.m. on Dec. 26, which was reported to the First Army Corps about 6 minutes later. At around 10:50 a.m., the CDC detected one of the five drones when it flew into Seoul near the P-73 no-fly zone, which covers a 3.7-kilometer radius zone above the presidential compound. Unaware of the situation, the CDC assessed the situation before contacting the JCS at 11:27 a.m. A state of emergency was declared around noon to alert anti-North Korea air defenses.

Why the emergency declaration was delayed and who was responsible for it are still under scrutiny, Lee said.

The opposition party said the military's explanation has been insufficient, and called on the ruling People Power Party (PPP) to hold an open hearing on the case to reveal the full facts.

Rep. Joo Ho-young, the PPP's floor leader, rejected the request, saying disclosing too much detail could endanger national security.

The Korea Times · by 2023-01-09 17:55 | North Korea · January 9, 2023

7. [ANALYSIS] US may ask S. Korea to pay more for strategic assets

Oh no. It is deja vu all over again.

Before we go down this road again we need to step back and re-negotiate the SOFA agreement first and then we can opan SMA discussions.

Maybe contribute incremental costs beyond what the costs for normal deployments in support of US nationals security objectives might be? But what is the reason for us to deploy strategic assets to the region? First and foremost they are to support US nationals security interests.  

Would we not deploy them if South Korea did not pay? If that is the case then deploying them must not be in support of US interests. Is deterring war on the. Korean peninsula in US interests?

[ANALYSIS] US may ask S. Korea to pay more for strategic assets

The Korea Times · January 9, 2023

A TV screen at Seoul Station shows a news program reporting about South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol speaking during a Cabinet meeting, Dec. 27, 2022. AP-Yonhap

No signs yet of updates to military cost-sharing agreement

By Kim Yoo-chul

With the United States preferring to position its military strategic assets in or near South Korea to match North Korea's provocations, experts and defense officials who have been involved in Seoul's past defense cost-sharing talks with Washington have said the Biden administration could ask the Yoon government to contribute more for the holding of tabletop drills.

Despite Pyongyang's repeated military provocations, top Washington officials aren't ready to drastically scale up some aspects of its military readiness with Seoul including holding joint nuclear exercises, as doing this is still viewed as unnecessary and could even lead to misunderstandings with not just North Korea but also other countries in Northeast Asia.

"What is absent from inter-Korean dialogue is an immediate and overarching need on either side to rely on dialogue to achieve essential national security objectives. As a result, dialogue may not be forthcoming until both sides have a felt need and sense of urgency around the necessity to engage in diplomacy with each other," Scott Snyder, a senior fellow for Korea studies and director of the program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), told The Korea Times recently.

U.S. President Joe Biden simply responded "No" when he was asked whether he was discussing joint nuclear drills with South Korea. Later, U.S. officials elaborated that both Washington and Seoul are involved in the process of strengthening extended deterrence, including eventually through tabletop exercises that would explore the countries' joint response to a range of various scenarios.

Because Washington officials aren't supportive of the idea of Seoul having its own nuclear weapons, given the strong wishes by the United States and China to keep the current status quo and the instability that may follow unexpected changes, the conservative Yoon administration has few viable options to deter the North's threats.

Experts urged the administration to focus on the timely deployment of strategic U.S. military assets closer to the peninsula.

"The Yoon administration is hoping for a NATO-style military arrangement, in which authorized South Korean military personnel will be trained to handle strategic U.S. military assets depending on circumstances, as a message to his political supporters that the administration could manage the North Korean nuclear issue effectively, based on the U.S.' extended deterrence guarantees rather than having South Korea's own nuclear weapons," a senior defense official said by telephone.

A recent poll by Hankook Research showed about 67 percent of South Koreans supported the idea of the country having its own nuclear arsenal, broken down to 70 percent of conservatives and 54 percent of liberals. As North Korea becomes more belligerent, more South Koreans fear that if Pyongyang can actually attack a city on U.S. soil, Washington would be reluctant to respond to any North Korean attack on Seoul, though security experts said the North's repeated provocations are aimed at pursuing a "position of strengths" for better concessions from the United States before the restarting of nuclear talks.

Since the early 1990s, when the United States had pulled various tactical nuclear weapons from the peninsula after agreeing to a nuclear disarmament deal with the Soviet Union, Washington hasn't stationed any nuclear weapons here. Instead, the United States offers its nuclear umbrella to South Korea, which means that Washington can use all its nuclear assets to defend Seoul but only if highly necessary.

No free ride

While the South Korean government is boasting about its readiness to possibly counter North Korea's provocations by responding with shows of force, this strategy could increase the costs for national defense, according to security experts.

A TV screen shows footage of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during a news program at Seoul Station Jan. 1. AP-Yonhap

"Seoul's security dependence exists with North Korean provocations. South Korea's tit-for-tat reactions will cost a lot given Seoul's high level of interest to conduct various types of joint military exercises with U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups, bombers and F-35 stealth jets on waters off the peninsula," an aide to former President Moon, who had been involved in previous Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiations with Washington years ago, said in a separate call.

"There is a high possibility for Washington to ask Seoul to pay more toward the cost of positioning U.S. strategic assets closer to the peninsula." The SMA addresses South Korea's contribution to the costs of hosting the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) here.

When it comes to holding Washington-Seoul joint military drills, each party is responsible to cover their relevant costs. But depending on the number of South Korea's requests for the positioning of U.S. strategic military assets near the peninsula, the United States could impose very real financial costs on the South Korean side, said security experts and defense officials.

The estimated one-day cost for the positioning of one U.S. air carrier strike group including two or three destroyers, submarines, logistics ships and a supply ship for long-range military exercises is at least $6.5 million. Plus, flying B-series U.S. bombers, ranges from $40,000 to $130,000 per hour, which doesn't even take into account the cost to operate air refueling fleets, according to sources.

During SMA negotiations in 2018, the Donald Trump administration demanded Seoul pay full financial coverage of the deployment of U.S. strategic military assets on the peninsula, but South Korea didn't accept the request.

U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G-20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 14, 2022. Reuters-Yonhap

"If the United States deploys its strategic assets as per South Korea's request to do so, Seoul should be held accountable and take increased responsibility for such live temporary performances. There is no free ride at all," the aide said.

SMA valid until at least 2025

Because North Korea is widely expected to demonstrate its ability to miniaturize a warhead for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) before actually conducting another nuclear test, expectations are for more rounds of U.S. strategic military deployments to South Korea or closer to the peninsula.

This also means that discussions over how best to respond and what possible role South Korea should play will lead to increased financial contributions. Under the latest SMA, which the U.S. and South Korea signed in 2021, Seoul will financially cover the USFK costs in three categories ― labor, logistics and construction.

The agreement, which failed to include the costs for deploying U.S. strategic assets near the peninsula, will be valid until 2025, while some sources said it is a six-year agreement. The foreign ministry in Seoul didn't give specifics about the agreement.

 Seoul will spend some 1.2 trillion won to station U.S. troops here this year. The U.S. has some 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea as well as a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system.

"There are possibilities that the U.S. may ask South Korea to pay the costs for the positioning of U.S. strategic assets closer to the peninsula, but this isn't an issue that is currently being developed or discussed for the time being," said a senior defense official, adding that Washington has yet to ask Seoul to update the SMA.

However, Sohn Dae-kwon, a professor at Sogang University's Graduate School of International Studies, said it's not a well-thought-out idea for Seoul to sharply increase its financial contributions for the deployment of Washington's strategic military assets on a case-by-case basis.

"The key prerequisite for South Korea in terms of ridding the country of nuclear weapons entirely is strictly based on Washington's security guarantees including a provision of extended deterrence. In 1978, the U.S. clarified its plans to extend its nuclear umbrella to South Korea in return for Seoul's decision to scrap its nuclear programs," Sohn said.

The Korea Times · January 9, 2023

8.  Envoys show expectations for Korea's bigger role in Indo-Pacific

Friends, partners, and allies will ask Korea to live up to its new moniker: A "global pivotal state."

Envoys show expectations for Korea's bigger role in Indo-Pacific

The Korea Times · January 9, 2023

Foreign Minister Park Jin, front row 10th from left, poses with envoys from around the Indo-Pacific region during a briefing announcing the details of Korea's new Indo-Pacific strategy at the ministry headquarters in central Seoul, Dec. 28. Yonhap

By Kwon Mee-yoo

Korea has unveiled a new strategy for expanding its global influence in the Indo-Pacific region, as the country's elevated international standing now requires it to take on a larger role in promoting freedom, peace and prosperity in the region.

The unveiling of the details received noteworthy attention from the diplomatic community in Seoul, as Foreign Minister Park Jin invited over 50 envoys to the announcement held at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs headquarters, Dec. 28.

Other Indo-Pacific nations recognized that they share the same values and perspectives as Korea in its new strategy and looked for opportunities for further cooperation through the new strategy.

Australian Ambassador to Korea Catherine Raper agreed with Park that the announcement "marks a watershed in Korea's foreign policy," welcoming Korea's strategy announcement as a fellow Indo-Pacific nation.

"The strategy aligns with Australia's own vision for a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific, where small and middle powers can work together to preserve our choice and strategic space," the Australian ambassador said in an email interview with The Korea Times.

She noted that cooperation with Australia would be crucial in implementing this strategy.

"Our close cooperation and coordination will be important given Australia is a fellow U.S. ally, a comprehensive strategic partner with ASEAN and has longstanding and deep relationships with our Pacific neighbors," Raper said.

Australia is also a significant security player in the region through its participation in security arrangements such as AUKUS and the Quad.

"We welcome the strategy's recognition of efforts to further deepen Australia-ROK ties on security issues and in national defense. We are already comprehensive strategic partners and we think the strategy will give us even more opportunities to collaborate on our shared regional security interests," she said.

Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) showed keen interest in Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy as well.

Vietnamese Ambassador to Korea Nguyen Vu Tung believes that the strategy may lead to Korea playing a larger role in the region, new opportunities for cooperation in various fields such as traditional and non-traditional security challenges and economic prosperity and more cooperative platforms at different levels.

Ambassador Tung said Vietnam and other ASEAN countries are content with the introduction of the strategy as the country is the coordinator for ASEAN-Korea cooperation for 2021 to 2024.

"Because it is a sustained and upgraded version of the New Southern Policy, which indicates that the ASEAN and South Korea can boost greater cooperation in the context of the ROK Indo-Pacific strategy. The elevation of the ROK-ASEAN cooperative framework into a strategic and comprehensive partnership in 2024 becomes more feasible," Tung said.

"It recognizes and supports the ASEAN Centrality and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), which suggests that South Korea and ASEAN support the inclusive approach to cooperation in the region, utilize the ASEAN-led institutions and hence adopt the ASEAN Way in promoting peace and stability in the region. (Third,) it widens the scope that ASEAN and ROK interact with other regional countries, especially those who have introduced their respective Indo-Pacific strategies."

He also sees the potential for Vietnam and Korea working together to enhance the ASEAN Centrality and support the ASEAN-led arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region with Vietnam being more proactive in ASEAN and Korea being more committed with ASEAN.

"The ROK and ASEAN will elevate the existing cooperative framework into a strategic and comprehensive partnership in 2024. These are the platforms that Vietnam and Korea can work together to implement the South Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy in Southeast Asia and beyond," Tung said.

Foreign Minister Park Jin, front row fourth from left, poses with envoys from the Indo-Pacific region during a briefing announcing the details of Korea's new Indo-Pacific Strategy at the ministry headquarters in central Seoul, Dec. 28.

 Yonhap

Gandi Sulistiyanto, ambassador of Indonesia to Korea, also welcomed Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy that shows continued attention to Southeast Asia, especially ASEAN member nations, adding that his government will soon officially announce its response to and position on Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy.

"The bilateral relationship between Indonesia and South Korea is flourishing from year to year. In 2017, Indonesia and South Korea agreed to upgrade the status of relations between the two countries to the level of a special strategic partnership," he said.

"With this special strategic partnership, the two countries agreed to increase cooperation in the fields of politics and defense, the economy and people-to-people contact. Indonesia and South Korea concluded the Korea-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IK-CEPA) and this agreement will be implemented soon."

Ambassador Sulistiyanto expressed hopes for the strategy to play a role in strengthening the relationship between Korea and Indonesia and the two countries could work together, both as middle powers and as democracies, to advance peace and prosperity in the region, which benefits the region and the world.

"I believe there is plenty of room for cooperation between Indonesia and South Korea through Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy... In economic cooperation, Indonesia and South Korea could also work to strengthen the supply chain, maritime and connectivity... In line with the cooperation on infrastructure, Indonesia seeks Korea's involvement in the New Capital development projects in East Kalimantan," the ambassador said.

As Indonesia is the chair of ASEAN this year, the largest country in Southeast Asia views that the region must be a robust, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth center for the region and the world, with a focus on cooperation in the fields of food security, energy security, health and financial stabilization.

"I hope that South Korea and ASEAN would conduct a dialogue or discussion regarding priority areas of cooperation that can be synergized between the AOIP and South Korea's Indo-Pacific strategy," Sulistiyanto said.

A large number of envoys from Europe also took part in the briefing, reflecting the continent's increasing interest and engagement in the Indo-Pacific region in recent years.

French Ambassador to Korea Philippe Lefort emphasized that France is a resident power of the Indo-Pacific with an extensive diplomatic and scientific network in the region.

"Over 1.6 million French citizens live in the region, notably in French Polynesia, New Caledonia and La Reunion, while three quarters of the French exclusive economic zone ― the world's second-largest ― is located in the Indo-Pacific," he said.

"French armed forces provide a strong presence of over 7,000 soldiers, which is essential to defend our sovereignty and to contribute, alongside with our partners, to regional security."

From France's perspective, Korea's new Indo-Pacific strategy can provide greater areas of cooperation between Korea, the European Union and all its member states.

"This cooperation can be useful to strengthen the stability in the Indo-Pacific, contribute to settling regional crises, promote the rule of law and international standards, ensure balanced and sustainable economic development, foster the deployment of quality infrastructure and work to preserve our common goods such as the climate, the environment, health, marine resources and maritime security, education and digital technology," Ambassador Lefort said.

France aims to be an inclusive and stabilizing force in the Indo-Pacific region.

"As Korea, we are promoting values of freedom and rule of law. Since the enactment of our Indo-Pacific strategy, we have been able to work with our partners to provide concrete solutions to the security, economic, health, climate and environmental challenges that countries in the region are facing, and to support multilateralism," he said.

Ambassador Lefort noted that there are many concrete actions that Korea and France can implement together, including through development cooperation agencies, in line with the priorities defined by countries in the region.

"For instance, we can work together to strengthen the adaptation of the Pacific territories to the impacts of climate change, and better protect biodiversity in the Indian Ocean regions. The French overseas departments and communities can be pivotal for our regional cooperation."

The Korea Times · January 9, 2023

9.  China suspends visas for South Koreans in virus retaliation

China suspends visas for South Koreans in virus retaliation

AP · by KEN MORITSUGU · January 10, 2023

BEIJING (AP) — China suspended issuing visas Tuesday for South Koreans to come to the country for tourism or business in apparent retaliation for COVID-19 testing requirements imposed by South Korea on Chinese travelers, according to a notice posted by the Chinese Embassy in Seoul.

Japan’s Kyodo News service said the ban would also affect Japanese travelers. A Japanese Foreign Ministry official said the government was aware of the report and was holding unofficial discussions with Chinese authorities about measures being considered by Beijing. It would be “regrettable” if restrictions are imposed, the official said, speaking on customary condition of anonymity.

The brief notice, published on the embassy WeChat account, said the ban will continue until South Korea lifts its “discriminatory measures on entrance by China” to the country.

No other details were given, although China has threated to retaliate against countries that require travelers from China to show a negative test result for COVID-19 taken within the previous 48 hours. The announcement appeared to apply only to new applicants, and said nothing about South Koreans currently holding visas.

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South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that “Our government’s step to strengthen anti-virus measures on passengers arriving from China is based on scientific and objective evidence. We have provided information to the international community in a transparent manner and we have communicated with the Chinese side in advance.”

China’s withholding of visas from South Korean or Japanese businesspeople could delay the revival of fully fledged commercial activity and potential new investments following China’s abrupt lifting of anti-virus controls.

Business groups warned earlier that global companies were shifting investment plans away from China because it was too hard for foreign executives to visit. A handful of foreign auto and other executives have visited China over the past three years, but companies have relied on Chinese employees or managers already in the country to run their operations.

A South Korean restaurant owner in Beijing said the announcement forced friends to postpone plans to visit China. He spoke on condition of anonymity out of concern his business might be affected. He added that he is preparing to renew his own Chinese work visa and doesn’t know whether that will be affected.

China has yet to say when it might resume issuing tourist visas on a large scale.

In a phone call with his South Korean counterpart, Park Jin, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang “expressed concern” about the measures taken by South Korea and said he “hopes that the South Korean side will uphold an objective and scientific attitude.”

China’s move appeared to be grounded in its demands that its citizens be treated the same as those of other countries. Around a dozen countries have followed the U.S. in requiring negative tests for travelers coming from China, which has lifted most of its “zero-COVID” restrictions for the first time in three years but also has been experiencing a major outbreak since last month.

At a daily briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin defended China’s anti-pandemic measures, adding that “Regrettably, a handful of countries, in disregard of science and facts and the reality at home, have insisted on taking discriminatory entry restriction measures targeting China. China firmly rejected this and took reciprocal measures.”

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Wang did not respond directly to questions about a suspension of visa issuance to South Koreans and Japanese, saying only that he had “made it very clear.”

The World Health Organization and several nations have accused China of withholding data on its outbreak. The testing requirements are aimed at identifying potential virus variants carried by travelers.

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China’s ambassador to Australia said the response of those nations to China’s COVID-19 outbreak hadn’t been proportionate or constructive.

Xiao Qian told reporters in Canberra that China had shifted its strategy late last year from preventing infections to preventing severe cases. He said countries should use a science-based response.

“Entry restrictions, if they’re targeted at China, they’re unnecessary,” the ambassador told reporters.

“If you look at some other countries in the world and their policies toward China, I mean, their responsible measures toward China (are) not constructive. It’s not based on science. It’s not proportionate,” he said.

The online notice at the embassy in Seoul did not say why China singled out South Korea for retaliation, although president and Communist Party leader Xi Jinping’s deeply nationalistic government has long resented Seoul’s alliance with the U.S.

The once-cordial ties between South Korea and its biggest trading partner soured after China targeted businesses, sports teams and even K-pop groups to protest deployment of an advanced U.S. anti-missile system in South Korea. China fought on the side of North Korea in the 1950-1953 war and has remained a supporter of the North amid its missile launches and nuclear tests, and has opposed further sanctions against Kim Jong Un’s hard-line government.

China abruptly reversed its strict pandemic containment requirements last month in response to what it says was the changing nature of the outbreak. That came after three years of lockdowns, quarantines and mass testing that prompted protests in the streets in Beijing and other major cities not seen in three decades.

The most optimistic forecasts say China’s business and consumer activity might revive as early as the first quarter of this year. But before that happens, entrepreneurs and families face a painful squeeze from a surge in virus cases that has left employers without enough healthy workers and kept wary customers away from shopping malls, restaurants, hair salons and gyms.

The decision by Xi’s government to end controls that shut down factories and kept millions of people at home will move up the timeline for economic recovery but might disrupt activity this year as businesses scramble to adapt, forecasters say.

China is now facing a surge in cases and hospitalizations in major cities and is bracing for a further spread into less developed areas with the start of the Lunar New Year travel rush, set to get underway in coming days. While international flights are still reduced, authorities say they expect domestic rail and air journeys will double over the same period last year, bringing overall numbers close to those of the 2019 holiday period, before the pandemic hit.

___

Associated Press writer Joe McDonald in Beijing contributed to this report.

AP · by KEN MORITSUGU · January 10, 2023

10. Will South Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Make a Difference?

Excerpts:

What will all this mean?

Even though South Korea would not be asking to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), its members need to understand what real value closer cooperation with the ROK in areas such as climate, technology and health can bring. They must see Seoul as a true Indo-Pacific player that principally shares their goals.

South Korea has not burned any bridges on paper here, however. Yoon meanwhile, may have to think through the strategy’s implementation and to what lengths he would go to appease Beijing as he moves closer to the Quad and other democracies.

The bottom line is that Yoon appears to want to further engage ASEAN and move closer to Washington and Tokyo while trying to minimise headaches in South Korea’s largest export market (the PRC). The jury is out as to whether he can strike the appropriate precarious balance.

​

Will South Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Make a Difference? | FULCRUM

PUBLISHED 9 JAN 2023

JOANNE LIN|SEAN KING

South Korea’s new Indo-Pacific strategy underscores the country’s ambitions to be a “global pivotal state”. Seoul seeks to effect a careful balance: inclining towards the US-led grouping advocating a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, while at the same time engaging China.

fulcrum.sg · January 9, 2023

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has finally jumped on the Indo-Pacific bandwagon with his country’s much-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy, signaling the Republic of Korea’s (ROK) growing ambition to be a “global pivotal state.”

Unveiled on 28 December, the document represents a big shift from ROK foreign policy under Yoon’s predecessor Moon Jae-in, who tried to steer clear of wider Indo-Pacific concepts. Regional players have often viewed South Korea as an important economic partner but not necessarily as a key strategic player. In the State of Southeast Asia 2022 Survey Report, it garnered a mere 0.6 per cent of votes (behind seven others but ahead of India) as the most influential political and strategic power in the region.

President Yoon flexed some muscle when he became the first South Korean president to attend a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit in June 2022 —something that was proudly recorded in the strategy. And the strengthening of ROK-U.S.–Japan trilateral relations (something Washington has long advocated and Beijing fears) signals Seoul’s desire to coalesce with these two foremost Indo-Pacific democracies who both assume central roles in the document.

Pundits expected Seoul’s strategy to mirror America’s and Japan’s relatively harder-line visions towards China under the “free and open Indo-Pacific” banner. But the ROK’s Strategy for a Free, Peaceful and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region reads as a more inclusive text. Unlike those of the United States, Japan and Canada, who are to varying degrees wary of China’s emergence, South Korea’s more-encompassing strategy seeks to include China — a vital trading partner — as a “key partner for achieving prosperity and peace in the Indo-Pacific region.”

But the document nonetheless puts Beijing on notice, making clear Seoul seeks a “more mature relationship … guided by international norms and rules.” This line is no doubt in reference to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) punishment of South Korean economic interests for the ROK’s 2016 decision to host America’s Terminal High Aerial Altitude Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system.

Even though South Korea would not be asking to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), its members need to understand what real value closer cooperation with the ROK in areas such as climate, technology and health can bring. They must see Seoul as a true Indo-Pacific player that principally shares their goals.

The ROK’s Indo-Pacific strategy appears to be functioning more as a part of President Yoon’s global foreign policy doctrine rather than a dedicated Indo-Pacific strategy. It runs through a laundry list of countries and regions, even those seemingly outside the scope of the Indo-Pacific, such as Europe and Latin America.

While the value of this broader focus remains to be seen, one clear winner is ASEAN — a regional bloc that favours neutrality and inclusiveness. According to South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin, “ASEAN, which is at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region, will naturally become the centerpiece of the ROK’s new (Indo-Pacific) initiative.” It is thus, not surprising that the strategy prominently features ASEAN and was launched at the ASEAN-ROK Summit in November last year.

Apart from increasing its cooperation funds for ASEAN and the Mekong region, as well as providing more Official Development Assistance (ODA) to ASEAN countries, Seoul has promised a Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative — a tailored approach to tackle common challenges under the new ROK Indo-Pacific strategy framework. Under the nine priority areas of implementation, goals such as managing climate change, maritime cooperation, and economic security will dovetail with the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). Other areas, such as digital trade and technology will also be important to the bloc.

Treaty ally America was the first to welcome the ROK’s first Indo-Pacific strategy, and quite understandably so. And for all its openness to Beijing in some sections, the strategy labels the ROK-U.S. alliance as the “linchpin for peace and democracy” on the Korean peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific. It is chock full of U.S.-friendly terms like freedom, liberal democracy, universal values and human rights, terms that carry a call for a regional order not shaped by force or coercion. Hence even if the strategy claims not to target any particular nations, its underlying principles track with those of Washington’s.

But elsewhere, the document is rife with contradictions and unanswered questions. For example, it calls for freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea and for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. But when then-U.S. House Speaker Pelosi visited Seoul in August 2022, President Yoon refused to meet her. It harps on resilient supply chains and technology but South Korea has yet to say whether it will join America’s proposed Chip 4 alliance involving democratic states and their semiconductor supply chains. The strategy bemoans a regional arms race just as South Korea’s own defence sector exports are booming (though it should be said that the two are not directly linked; the former is demand and threat-given, while the latter is a function of commercial and sometimes strategic considerations). And while the document champions free trade, Seoul itself has yet to formally submit its long-awaited application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

One section that is remarkably consistent, however, is that on North Korea. Unlike nationalist-Left predecessor Moon who called for the complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, Yoon demands the complete denuclearisation of North Korea only. Neither is likely to happen but at the least, Yoon calls it for what it is.

What will all this mean?

Even though South Korea would not be asking to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), its members need to understand what real value closer cooperation with the ROK in areas such as climate, technology and health can bring. They must see Seoul as a true Indo-Pacific player that principally shares their goals.

South Korea has not burned any bridges on paper here, however. Yoon meanwhile, may have to think through the strategy’s implementation and to what lengths he would go to appease Beijing as he moves closer to the Quad and other democracies.

The bottom line is that Yoon appears to want to further engage ASEAN and move closer to Washington and Tokyo while trying to minimise headaches in South Korea’s largest export market (the PRC). The jury is out as to whether he can strike the appropriate precarious balance.

2023/10

fulcrum.sg · January 9, 2023

11. Pentagon awards $40M ‘Vampire’ contract for Ukraine’s drone defenses

"Vehicle agnostic."

​Can these be useful in Korea?

Pentagon awards $40M ‘Vampire’ contract for Ukraine’s drone defenses

Defense News · by Joe Gould · January 9, 2023

WASHINGTON ― The Pentagon has awarded L3Harris Technologies a $40 million order to send Ukraine “Vampire” counter-drone systems by mid-year, the company announced Monday.

L3Harris said it will install 14 kits onto vehicles the U.S. government provides Ukraine. Vampire, which stands for Vehicle Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment, consists of a laser-guided-missile launcher that can quickly be installed in a civilian truck bed.

The kits are meant to allow Ukraine’s ground forces to strike ground targets as well as drones that Russia has been using to hit Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

L3Harris said the contract calls for the company to deliver four systems to the Defense Department by mid-2023 and 10 more by the end of 2023.

RELATED

‘Vampire’ to transform Ukraine pickups into deadly missile launchers

The L3Harris-made Vampire will be included in the nearly $3 billion in aid announced Wednesday.

The award, technically a purchase order, was part of a Navy prototype contract that pre-dated Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according a Pentagon spokesman, Lt. Cdr. Tim Gorman.

The prototype, submitted to the Defense Department in April, was selected in August as part of a Pentagon’s $3 billion security assistance package under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. The company said it began field testing in 2021 and continued range and durability tests in summer 2022.

The Vampire system includes a WESCAM MX-10 RSTA targeting sensor, and it uses an Advanced Precision Kill Weapons System rocket that can be combined with L3Harris’ proximity fuze.

“We’ve invested in procurement, testing and certification since August so VAMPIRE production can begin without delay,” Luke Savoie, the company’s president of the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance business unit, said in a press release.

“We’re committed to supporting a U.S. strategic partner with a robust capability, as the people of Ukraine continue to defend their country and protect their independence.”

About Joe Gould

Joe Gould is the senior Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. He served previously as Congress reporter.​

12. World Atlas: N. Korea has 4th Largest Army in the World

I add this piece not necessarily because of the comments from Dr. Bruce Bennett and me but to illustrate how influential RFA and VOA are. Major news media in South Korea (Such as KBS here) follows VOA and RFA and uses their reports (but they do not always credit them).

As an aside some of the most professional and objective journalists I know work at VOA and RFA.

World Atlas: N. Korea has 4th Largest Army in the World

world.kbs.co.kr

Politics

Written: 2023-01-10 12:10:56 / Updated: 2023-01-10 13:27:28

Photo : YONHAP News

A new study finds that North Korea has the fourth largest army in the world with one-point-two million active personnel.

Radio Free Asia(RFA) said Tuesday that the North came in fourth in “The Largest Armies in the World” report released last Saturday by World Atlas, a source of world maps and regional statistics.

China topped the list with two million, followed by India, the U.S., North Korea and Russia.

South Korea placed eighth with 555-thousand active personnel.

RFA said that experts have been quick to point out that the size of a country’s military and its actual combat power are two separate things.

David Maxwell, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, made the argument to RFA, saying the combat capabilities of South Korea’s military and of the South Korea-U.S. alliance are superior to that of the North.

Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation, said it would be difficult for the North to beat the South without using nuclear weapons, citing that the reclusive state’s military capacity ranks between 20th and 30th in the world.

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13. S. Korea, U.S. reaffirm efforts to address IRA concerns in high-level consultations

Let's get this fixed.

(2nd LD) S. Korea, U.S. reaffirm efforts to address IRA concerns in high-level consultations | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 10, 2023

(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; UPDATES throughout with details)

By Yi Wonju

SEOUL, Jan. 10 (Yonhap) -- A top U.S. State Department official said Tuesday that Washington will continue to work together with South Korea to address its concerns about the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as he had related discussions here.

Jose Fernandez, the U.S. under secretary of state for economic growth, energy and the environment, met Second Vice Foreign Minister Lee Do-hoon in Seoul to discuss ways to boost bilateral cooperation in economic security, including strengthening supply chain resilience and the easing of discriminatory provisions for Korean-made electric vehicles in the IRA.

"We've taken, and we continue to take, the ROK concerns about the law seriously," Fernandez told reporters shortly after the meeting, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.

"And we will continue to work together on the ROK's and other allies' IRA-related concerns as we move to implement the legislation," he added.

Fernandez stressed that the IRA is intended to address global climate change, saying the U.S. seeks to help "increase the resiliency of global supply chains and promote inclusive economic growth."

South Korea's Second Vice Foreign Minister Lee Do-hoon (R) shakes hands with U.S. Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment Jose Fernandez as they attend a joint press conference at the foreign ministry in Seoul on Jan. 10, 2023, after holding a meeting to discuss a range of bilateral issues, including a new U.S. law that offers tax incentives to electric vehicles assembled in North America. (Yonhap)

The two sides also discussed ways to advance cooperation in the supply chain for semiconductors and key minerals.

"Following last month's Senior Economic Dialogue that we had in Washington, D.C., we're also implementing key initiatives ... initiatives that include moving forward on our Minerals Security Partnership, joint research and development in critical and emerging technologies, and promoting supply chain resilience," he said.

Lee noted their meeting has served as an opportunity to affirm the "direction" of cooperation for South Korea and the U.S. as allies in economic security and technology.

The two sides are "key partners" that are "mutually indispensable" in forming economic and industrial solidarity based on universal values, such as freedom and human rights, he added.

In a brief meeting with Fernandez, Foreign Minister Park Jin also urged "special attention" from Washington on the easing of the discriminatory provisions.

The IRA, signed into law by U.S. President Joe Biden last August, gives up to US$7,500 in tax credits to buyers of electric vehicles assembled only in North America, sparking concerns that Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp. could lose ground in the U.S. market.

Fernandez arrived here on Monday, becoming the first senior U.S. official to visit Seoul this year, the 70th anniversary of the bilateral alliance.

Last month, Lee and Fernandez signed a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to continuing constructive discussions to address Seoul's concerns on the impact of the IRA at the 7th Senior Economic Dialogue in Washington, D.C.

Fernandez plans to meet with representatives from U.S. and South Korean companies, and hold a roundtable on female business leaders with the American Chamber of Commerce before departing for Japan on Wednesday.

South Korea's Second Vice Foreign Minister Lee Do-hoon (R) looks at U.S. Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy and the Environment Jose Fernandez as they attend a joint press conference at the foreign ministry in Seoul on Jan. 10, 2023, after holding a meeting to discuss a range of bilateral issues, including a new U.S. law that offers tax incentives to electric vehicles assembled in North America. (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 10, 2023

14.  Ministry requests defectors' restraint for anti-Pyongyang leaflet campaign using drones

​The ROK government should coordinate the efforts.

Respond to provocations with information. And lots of it.

·     Design an overt information warfare campaign targeting the North Korean people based on Information, Knowledge, Truth, and Understanding

o  Information: massive quantities of information from entertainment to news;

o  Knowledge: practical information on how to effect change, best practices for agriculture and market activity, educational lessons without Juche influence;

o  Truth: the truth about the regime and the situation in North Korea and the outside world; and,

o  Understanding: help the Korean people in the North to understand the inalienable and universal rights that belong to all human beings.

The only way to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, military threats, and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people in the North by the mafia-like crime cult known as the Kim family regime is through unification. A free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government would be a strong American ally in Asia. An information warfare campaign against North Korea will be the most important contribution to this outcome, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

​

Ministry requests defectors' restraint for anti-Pyongyang leaflet campaign using drones

The Korea Times · January 10, 2023

Fighters for a Free North Korea, an anti-Pyongyang activist group, prepares to fly a balloon containing anti-Pyongyang leaflets in the South Korean border city of Paju in this December 2021 file photo. YonhapKorea's unification ministry has asked a North Korean defectors' group to refrain from carrying out a campaign to send anti-Pyongyang leaflets using drones, according to a ministry official Tuesday.

The request came after Park Sang-hak, head of the Fighters for Free North Korea (FFNK), said Monday that the group plans to fly unmanned aerial vehicles soon carrying leaflets critical of the North across the inter-Korean border.

"To abide by related laws, take into account inter-Korean situations and protect people's lives and safety, there is a need (for activists) to refrain from staging leaflet campaigns that could cause unnecessary risks," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

The conservative Yoon Suk Yeol administration warned that it would suspend a 2018 inter-Korean agreement designed to reduce military tensions if the North violates the South's territory again in the wake of North Korea's latest drone infiltrations into the South.

The unification ministry said last week it has begun a legal review on whether it is possible to resume loudspeaker broadcasting and the distribution of anti-Pyongyang leaflets in case the military accord is suspended.

By law, the government has banned the sending of propaganda leaflets across the border, with violators subject to face a prison term of up to three years or a fine of 30 million won ($24,160).

Meanwhile, the number of North Korean defectors coming to the South stayed below 100 for the second straight year in 2022 due largely to the North's tight border controls over COVID-19, according to the ministry.

The number of such North Korean defectors reached 67 last year, slightly up from 63 in the previous year. But the 2022 tally was 72.4 percent down from 229 recorded for 2020. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · January 10, 2023

15.  Yoon's office keeps open communication channel with NK rights activists

​Some good news here. We need an alliance human rights upfront approach.

Yoon's office keeps open communication channel with NK rights activists

The Korea Times · January 9, 2023

President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks next to drone models during a visit to the Agency for Defense Development in the central city of Daejeon in this Dec. 29, 2022, file photo. Yonhap

Presidential officials have granted meetings with North Korean human rights activists last year and will continue to keep dialogue channels with them open in a departure from the preceding Moon Jae-in administration, an official said Monday.

Last year, members of Fighters for Free North Korea and other activist groups requested a meeting with the presidential office and had one, a presidential official told Yonhap News Agency.

"We haven't met again this year yet, but we are keeping the channel open," the official said.

Under the Moon administration, the presidential office did not recognize such activist groups, many of whose members are North Korean defectors, as dialogue partners, treating them with hostility, according to the official.

Yoon, meanwhile, promised during his presidential campaign to work with the international community to enhance North Koreans' human rights, while also vowing under his administration's key tasks to facilitate the launch of a North Korean human rights foundation that has been delayed.

The presidential office is also looking into the activists' calls to allow the resumption of leaflet flying across the border to help inform North Koreans of the brutality of their regime.

Such considerations are taking place as the government weighs suspending a 2018 inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement in the event North Korea carries out more provocations similar to last month's drone infiltration of South Korean airspace. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · January 9, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com