It was another unpredictable year in 2022 with high inflation and drastically changing interest rates. Many of the same issues carry over to 2023.
We asked our panel of San Diego experts to predict what the economy will look like in the coming year. Detailed forecasts are listed at the bottom of the article.
At the start of 2022, several members came very close to calling how the year would end.
For the price of oil ($80.26 as of Dec. 30), Alan Gin was nearly exact with his prediction of $80.
For median home price ($765,000 as of November), Ray Major was closest with $770,000.
For Dow Jones Industrial (33,147 as of Dec. 30), Kelly Cunningham was closest at 30,000.
For San Diego County unemployment rate (3.3 percent as of November), Jamie Moraga was closest at 3.5 percent.
Question: What economic indicator will you monitor most closely in 2023?
ECONOMIST
Ray Major
SANDAG
Real rate of inflation: 2022 proved to be a devastating year for the average citizen as the cost of living increased and ravaged the standard of living. Although the annual inflation rate is around 7 percent, the true cost of living in San Diego has increased by 21 percent since April 2021. This is driven in large part by fuel and food price inflation that is not calculated as part of the published rate. Higher interest rates should slow the economy in 2023, tempering inflation and resulting in a real recession.
ECONOMIST
Caroline Freund
UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy
International trade: While I’ll be watching inflation, I’ll also keep an eye on U.S. exports and imports. Trade statistics show the effectiveness of the nationalistic policies being implemented in the U.S. and around the world. They also measure economic relations with other countries, such as China or Mexico. A large decline in trade will reduce productivity growth and innovation, lead to higher prices and fewer varieties to choose from, worsening the economic outlook.
Predictions for year-end 2023
San Diego economists and executives make predictions on the stock market, oil prices, the local housing market and the county’s jobless rate.
San Diego County median home price
Home price predictions are all over the map from our panel. As of November, the median home price in San Diego County was $765,000.
While some took the stance that prices would be lower — one prediction was $646,000 — some said the price would accelerate to close out 2023 closer to $800,000.
Ray Major: $646,000
Caroline Freund: $760,000
Haney Hong: $800,000
Kelly Cunningham: $700,000
Lynn Reaser: $700,000
Phil Blair: $795,000
Gary London: $700,000
Alan Gin: $720,000
Bob Rauch: $800,000
Kirti Gupta: $750,000
James Hamilton: $720,000
Austin Neudecker: $750,000
Chris Van Gorder: $740,000
Norm Miller: $760,000
Jamie Moraga: $800,000
David Ely: $715,000
