Active listings of single-family homes in Deschutes County dropped to 782, the first time homes for sale have been below 800 since June. In addition, pending sales were down dramatically from last week at twenty-nine, with sold homes also down significantly at thirty-four. With Title offices closed on Thanksgiving, I read very little into the drop in sold and pending houses since we only had a couple of business days in the previous week. However, the next few weeks will be a good indicator of buyer demand with full work weeks. Additionally, between the Christmas and New Year holidays, some short weeks and personal vacation schedules make this time of year far slower than typical weeks.
Mortgage interest rates have been steady with yesterday's 30-year fixed-rate national average of 6.65%. The Federal Reserve doesn't meet for another two weeks, so I'd expect the current mortgage rates to be relatively stable. In addition, many buyers are struggling with affordability because of the interest rate spike that started this fall. Still, the recent decline from previous rate highs combined with motivated sellers at this time of year could make for great buying opportunities. For example, in Crook County, each of the five pending sales reduced the asking price before going under contract. Four of the five sold homes in Crook County also reduced the price with the sold price to the original list price at 91.26%.
For those of you waiting out the market, the best number to keep an eye on, other than mortgage interest rates, will be the volume of active inventory. In April 2022, the number of actively listed single-family homes in Deschutes County was 333, far below even today's low number. Many would-be sellers have mortgage interest rates well below the current level, keeping them on the sidelines. In the past few years, strong buyer demand kept inventory low; a steep reduction in new listings may create a dearth of inventory again this coming season. Either way, with very few homes listed for sale, prices tend to stay elevated. Although, even if our inventory stays near today's volume, there is every reason to believe mortgage interest rates will be higher than today and remain elevated through 2023. If mortgage rates rise and stay elevated, sellers will need to accept lower prices. While I have no way of knowing what mid-year 2023 will bring, I can confidently say that 6.65% mortgage interest rates, reduced prices, and motivated sellers make right now an opportunity many may look back on as the "good times" once 2023 starts rolling. Check out this video from August if you are looking for a reminder of how quickly things change!
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