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Quotes of the Day:
“The secret of genius is to carry the spirit of the child into old age, which means never losing your enthusiasm."
- Aldous Huxley
“Truth is so obscure in these times, and falsehood so established, that, unless we love the truth, we cannot know it.”
- Blaise Pascal
"You learn as much from failure as from success, Dad always says. Though no one admires you for it."
- Karen Joy Fowler
1. U.S. continuing to monitor N. Korea for provision of artillery shells to Russia: Pentagon
2. [Herald Interview] ‘US, S. Korea should optimize defense posture for deterrence, diplomacy’
3. Turbulent rivalry shifts in East Asia and Korea
4. North Korea and US Complacency: Why We Can’t Get Off the Escalation Merry-Go-Round
5. Fugitive underwear boss gave Kim Jong-un Hermès saddle, say prosecutors
6. Yoon, Xi share views for peace on Korean peninsula
7. South Korea’s Yoon tells Xi he wants mutually beneficial, mature ties with China
8. Yoon, Japan's Kishida agreed to seek quick settlement of forced labor issue: official
9. Yoon-Xi summit reveals gap in approach to North Korea
10. North Korea funneled $1b for its nuclear programs through cyber crypto heists
11. Yoon in hot water over strained media relations
12. [Herald Interview] S.Korea has to ‘take some risk’ to ensure deterrence on Taiwan
13. Experts say additional THAAD deployment unlikely - for now
1. U.S. continuing to monitor N. Korea for provision of artillery shells to Russia: Pentagon
If the reports are accurate will north Korea provide sufficient ammunition that will have any significant effect on Putin's War in Ukraine?
U.S. continuing to monitor N. Korea for provision of artillery shells to Russia: Pentagon | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 16, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Nov. 15 (Yonhap) -- The United States is working with its allies and partners to monitor North Korea's provision of artillery shells to Russia, a Pentagon spokesman said Tuesday.
Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder declined to comment on whether the U.S. was seeking to interdict the North Korean shipments.
"I don't want to get into specific conversations with allies and partners. Certainly, we have flagged concerns about North Korea, and we will continue to work with our allies and partners when it comes to anything that could destabilize or cause issues in the region," he told a press briefing.
"I don't want to speak for our allies," he added when asked if any U.S. allies may try to stop the shipments. "Again, it's something that we will continue to look at very closely."
The defense department spokesman earlier said that the North was trying to covertly provide a "significant number of artillery shells" to Russia for use in Ukraine while obfuscating their destination by funneling them through third countries in North Africa or the Middle East.
"I don't have any specific updates to provide other than, again, (that) we do assess that Russia is seeking to obtain ammunition from North Korea and that North Korea is looking to covertly provide that, again as you highlighted, through North Africa and the Middle East," said Ryder.
Pyongyang has dismissed the U.S. report as a groundless rumor aimed at tarnishing its image, claiming it has never sold any weapons to Russia.
State Department Press Secretary Ned Price has said the North was seeking to provide "millions" of artillery shells to Moscow.
Ryder insisted the alleged ammunition deal between Russia and North Korea showed how isolated the two countries are.
"It's just indicative of the fact that Russia finds itself having to deal with countries like Iran and North Korea in terms of replenishing its own stocks," said the Pentagon spokesman.
He said the U.S., on the other hand, is working with a "lot of different countries," when asked about a potential ammunition purchase deal with South Korea.
"What I would say is that the U.S. worked with a lot of different countries, in terms of working with their defense industrial base, to identify opportunities to purchase munitions when it comes to not only providing them to Ukraine but also replenishing one another's stocks," Ryder said.
A news report earlier suggested that the U.S. was seeking to purchase artillery shells from South Korea to be delivered to Ukraine.
Seoul's defense ministry has confirmed ongoing discussions between the U.S. and a South Korean defense firm over a possible deal but dismissed possible delivery of South Korean weapons to Ukraine, saying the discussions were being held on the premise that the munitions will be used by the U.S.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 16, 2022
2. [Herald Interview] ‘US, S. Korea should optimize defense posture for deterrence, diplomacy’
[Herald Interview] ‘US, S. Korea should optimize defense posture for deterrence, diplomacy’
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · November 15, 2022
South Korean and US engineering soldiers conduct a joint river-crossing drill via a pontoon bridge over the Namhan River in Yeoju, 65 kilometers southeast of Seoul, on Oct. 19, 2022. (Republic of Korea Army)
WASHINGTON -- The US and South Korea should seek to optimize their combined defense posture and create room for diplomacy with North Korea, according to Frank Jannuzi, president of the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation and formerly US President Joe Biden’s longtime foreign policy aide in the Senate.
Recalibrating strategy to enhance the alliance’s readiness is imperative to achieve the ultimate objective of maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula.
“There’s some truth to the idea that sometimes diplomacy only happens at the edge of crisis. It’s very unfortunate,” Jannuzi said in a one-hour interview with The Korea Herald on Nov. 2 at the office of the Mansfield Foundation -- which promotes understanding and cooperation between the US and Asian countries -- in Washington.
“We may be at a similar point now, where tensions are very high. It may be an opportunity for the US and the ROK to signal to North Korea the desire to engage and see whether North Korea itself may view the situation differently,” he added, referring to South Korea’s formal name, Republic of Korea.
Jannuzi said the US and South Korea should rack their brains to figure out how to de-escalate tensions and break the cycle of North Korean provocations given that the Korean Peninsula may once again enter a state of crisis diplomacy.
“It’s really important to view the US-ROK military exercises through the right lens,” said Jannuzi, who advised Biden and current US climate envoy John Kerry on East Asian affairs when they led the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
“We have the goal of deterrence and showing our readiness. But we also have a political objective, which is to try to convince North Korea to engage with us to promote peace and stability on the peninsula. So we need to keep that political objective in mind also.”
But the Korean Peninsula also has been locked in a vicious cycle of provocations and deterrence.
South Korea and the US upheld their commitment to suspend large-scale combined military exercises to support diplomacy with North Korea after the first US-North Korea summit in June 2018 in Singapore.
But North Korea was unresponsive to overtures from the allies while accelerating its military buildup and continuing nuclear saber-rattling. South Korea and the US brought back large-scale major military exercises in August this year.
The Kim Jong-un regime has taken a series of escalatory steps in response to the allies’ move to enhance readiness and deterrence vis-a-vis North Korea. North Korea has justified a barrage of missile launches and its firing of more than 1,000 artillery shells as tit-for-tat military actions against defense-oriented South Korea-US military exercises.
“But I still believe that the stronger party has the freedom and has the power to exercise restraint,” Jannuzi said.
“So I would hope that when this current round of US-ROK joint military exercises is concluded, the US and the ROK would sit down together and figure out what kind of defense posture they think is best both to ensure deterrence against North Korea and to create space for diplomacy.”
Broader objectives than denuclearization
Jannuzi underscored that the US and South Korea should set the objective of accomplishing the complete denuclearization of North Korea as a part of a broader strategy to establish peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
In this sense, Washington and Seoul should set a much broader goal than solely denuclearizing North Korea.
“Attempting to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula is certainly an important objective. But it cannot be done in isolation,” Jannuzi said. “The United States and South Korea need to be more clear that what they really want is peace on the Korean Peninsula and that peace should include denuclearization.”
The US and South Korea cannot convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons without addressing North Korea’s security needs, ending the Korean War and “forging a more comprehensive peace.”
“Denuclearization by itself cannot be accomplished. But denuclearization might be possible in the future in the context of an overall peace. I think that that’s what we should strive for.”
Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi meets the Mansfield Foundation Board of Directors including Frank Jannuzi (far right of the first row) on October 25 in Tokyo. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan)
Don’t give upon China
Apart from North Korea’s stubborn adherence to nuclear weapons, geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia have created unfavorable conditions for the US and South Korea to jump-start talks with North Korea.
“We have a new Cold War atmosphere that is growing between the United States and China. And, for sure, that has emboldened North Korea because they believe that they can do anything they want right now, including a nuclear test,” Jannuzi said. “North Korea will not be punished for that.”
The reemerging alignment among China, Russia and North Korea has created an environment conducive for North Korea to launch missiles and conduct nuclear tests with impunity.
For instance, the UN Security Council has been unable to take any actions against more than 60 ballistic missile launches, including seven intercontinental ballistic missiles, this year in the absence of support from China and Russia. The two are permanent veto-wielding members.
Jannuzi said that the “only way for the US to reverse that trend line is to have direct diplomacy with China.” The Biden administration should take on a serious approach to bring China into a “more cooperative posture” on North Korea issues, despite challenges including simmering tensions over Taiwan that have complicated US engagement with China.
“What diplomats are supposed to do is turn something impossible into something difficult. So, right now, it may seem impossible to engage China to try to get them to help us to restrain North Korea. But I don’t think it’s impossible. I think it’s just very difficult, and we should try it.”
Trilateral cooperation as a shield, not a sword
The US diplomatic engagement with China is also imperative to make trilateral security cooperation among the US, South Korea and Japan a more effective and efficient mechanism to maintain peace and stability in Northeast Asia.
“The reality is that any defense of the Korean Peninsula against North Korean aggression must include US bases in Japan. This is a military fact of life. To be credible, our defense posture on the Korean Peninsula requires US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation. So I think that’s an inescapable fact of geography,” Jannuzi said.
“(But) that trilateral arrangement must not be deployed with a Cold War mindset that it is against any one country.”
Trilateral cooperation should not set in motion a regional division, epitomized during the era of Cold War as an epiphenomenon of geopolitical competition between the US and the Soviet Union.
US diplomacy with China is “so vital” to avoid driving China away or China and North Korea together.
“The US-ROK-Japan triangle can be an instrument of peace and stability in Northeast Asia, but only if it is wielded as a shield and not as a sword. So I think that shield does not have to threaten China,” Jannuzi said.
“And I think the US should engage in high-level diplomacy with China in concert with our allies to find more common ground that the US-ROK-Japan triangle is the most effective way to ensure peace and stability in the Northeast Asian region that does not have NATO and that does not have effective regional security mechanisms.”
Jannuzi said that the US and China had “many common interests,” including maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.
Put a stop to nuclearized Northeast Asia
Jannuzi underscored the urgency of jump-starting negotiations to open the window of opportunity to pursue denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in light of the implications of North Korea’s nuclear buildup for security in Northeast Asia.
The reality of living with a nuclear-armed North Korea has affected the credibility of US extended deterrence in the region and affected the psychology of the commitment of South Korea, Japan and Taiwan to non-nuclear status.
It is uncertain whether South Korea, Japan and Taiwan will remain non-nuclear if existential threats posed by North Korean nuclear weapons persist for 20 years, 30 years or 50 years from now.
“We’re rolling the dice, hoping that the US deterrence will remain strong and that the commitment of the people of South Korea, Japan and Taiwan to non-nuclear status will remain strong,” Jannuzi said.
“It’s a bit of a gamble. As long as there’s a North Korean nuclear program, we will be running the risk that South Korea, Japan and Taiwan might lose confidence in US (extended) nuclear deterrence.”
North Korea’s expected seventh nuclear test, of course, would pose “one more blow to peace and stability in the region.”
And a seventh test would bring us one step more toward a future where South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and others might raise questions about the credibility of US extended deterrence and deterrence capabilities and weigh up the need of acquiring nuclear weapons.
“So my main concern about a seventh test is that it’s just one more step that might, in a small way, raise those doubts in Seoul or Tokyo,” Jannuzi said.
“However, I’m not very worried about a seventh test because again we’ve been living with a nuclear-armed North Korea for 16 years. It’s not the first test, it is not the second test. It’s the seventh, and why haven't they tested yet? To me, the answer is very simple. They’re not ready.”
____________
The Korea Herald conducted a series of interviews with former senior US officials and experts in Washington from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2 on the occasion of the 54th South Korea-US Security Consultative Meeting. The interviews cover a wide range of pending issues, including the prospects for a denuclearized peninsula, the alliance’s deterrent posture against North Korean and regional threats as well as South Korea’s strategic role in the Indo-Pacific region. -- Ed.
By Ji Da-gyum (dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · November 15, 2022
3. Turbulent rivalry shifts in East Asia and Korea
I wish we had a trilateral alliance.
Excerpts:
The trilateral alliance between South Korea, the United States and Japan is stronger than ever, as evidenced by the comprehensive joint statement adopted on Nov. 13, which condemned "North Korea's continuous nuclear and missile provocations," and reaffirmed that the trilateral partnership will "pursue mutual prosperity and security with innovation as its engine."
On Nov. 14, in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, the leaders of the U.S. and China met. The summit lasted more than three hours and was the first time Biden and Xi met in person since 2017.
Biden elated by the success of the midterm election results, and the "iron-clad" trilateral alliance, met Xi who emerged from the 20th Party Congress as the absolute leader of the People's Republic of China to better understand each other's core interests and red lines, which must not be crossed.
"Perhaps the outcome of the meeting was the best that could be expected," said Michael Schuman, a nonresident senior fellow at Global China Hub, adding that "dialogue, and the prospect of more of it, holds out hope that competition will not boil over into conflict."
Turbulent rivalry shifts in East Asia and Korea
The Korea Times · November 15, 2022
By Kim Sang-woo
The end of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in late October signifies the launch of Xi Jinping's third term as leader. Xi stated in his work report that "the wheels of history are rolling on toward China's reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
Xi appears to believe the United States is determined to suppress China's rightful ascent as a global power. The Chinese political and academic elite seem convinced that the U.S. is in decline and that Washington is trying to "keep China down" in order to cling to its declining hegemony.
Xi's partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin is designed to decrease his economic reliance on the West and to undermine the U.S.-led world order. As well as to replace the norms and rules of the current liberal order with a system more favorable to autocratic regimes and the expansion of Chinese power.
Nevertheless, the decline in Chinese economic growth is not good for the world economy, which is teetering on the brink of recession. If China continues to stumble, many economies will suffer.
In any case, the U.S. is urging its allies to take its side in its efforts to find alternative supply chains, through regional groupings. As well as urging allies to unite over values, such as safeguarding human rights and promoting democracy.
President Yoon Suk-yeol told President Joe Biden at the beginning of their first bilateral summit, on May 21, "Today we're living in an era of economic security, where the economy is security and security is the economy."
In early October, the Biden administration enacted wide-sweeping export curbs aimed at cutting off key software, chips, and machinery that help China develop semiconductors, artificial intelligence and supercomputers. Washington argues that such advanced semiconductors can be used by Beijing to advance its military capabilities.
In May, South Korea joined 13 other countries in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which aims to set the rules for economics and trade in the region, and to help members decouple from the Chinese market by finding alternative supply chains, offsetting Beijing's influence.
Seoul has pushed to mend relations with Tokyo, frayed by historical issues, as Washington pushes to strengthen trilateral security cooperation with its East Asian allies.
However, the results of Seoul's efforts to strengthen the alliance with Washington are not always appreciated as might be expected, as seen with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has currently put South Korean electric vehicle makers at a disadvantage.
Amid a public outcry, Korea's IRA concerns were only properly raised during Yoon's talks with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Seoul on Sept. 29, and recognized in a subsequent letter by Biden to Yoon.
Most U.S. foreign policy seems to be stemming from domestic politics. It seems quite likely that similar bills such as the IRA will continue to be passed, which can be detrimental to South Korean interests.
However, on Nov. 13, at the South Korea-U.S. summit held on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penn, Cambodia, Biden told Yoon that he recognizes the "enormous contribution South Korean companies make to the American economy," and that it will be "taken into consideration in implementing the IRA."
Some analysts point out that Seoul needs to be prepared to make sacrifices in the process of aligning with the U.S. on key issues.
"At the end of the day, the reality is that relying on the U.S. for security and China for the economy has been a very comfortable stance for South Korea to take up," said Cha Du-hyeon, a principal fellow at the Seoul-based think tank Asan Institute for Policy Studies. "Now we have to be prepared to make sacrifices for taking similar stances with the U.S.," Cha said.
"There must be a role that South Korea can play so that the strategic competition between the U.S. and China does not intensify further and become too extreme," he added.
In a similar vein, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited Xi on Nov. 4. The visit was widely criticized.
Nevertheless, some of the reasons why the visit was criticized are exactly what made the trip necessary. The visit comes as the world is "in times of change and turmoil" as Xi told Scholz.
Greater diplomatic efforts are needed to keep Xi's window to the world open and to understand how Xi perceives the world and China's role within it.
At a meeting with Scholz, Xi made his strongest criticism so far of Putin's war and said that China joins the international community in "opposing the use of, or threats to use nuclear weapons." Political observers of Scholz's visit, said these comments on nuclear weapons alone made the trip worth it.
The trilateral alliance between South Korea, the United States and Japan is stronger than ever, as evidenced by the comprehensive joint statement adopted on Nov. 13, which condemned "North Korea's continuous nuclear and missile provocations," and reaffirmed that the trilateral partnership will "pursue mutual prosperity and security with innovation as its engine."
On Nov. 14, in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, the leaders of the U.S. and China met. The summit lasted more than three hours and was the first time Biden and Xi met in person since 2017.
Biden elated by the success of the midterm election results, and the "iron-clad" trilateral alliance, met Xi who emerged from the 20th Party Congress as the absolute leader of the People's Republic of China to better understand each other's core interests and red lines, which must not be crossed.
"Perhaps the outcome of the meeting was the best that could be expected," said Michael Schuman, a nonresident senior fellow at Global China Hub, adding that "dialogue, and the prospect of more of it, holds out hope that competition will not boil over into conflict."
Kim Sang-woo (swkim54@hotmail.com), former lawmaker, is chairman of the East Asia Cultural Project. He is also a member of the board of directors at the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.
The Korea Times · November 15, 2022
4. North Korea and US Complacency: Why We Can’t Get Off the Escalation Merry-Go-Round
Korea fatigue among Americans? Or are they just no longer rattled by Kim Jong Un?
Excerpts:
It would be foolhardy to place the blame for this perpetual cycle of escalation and de-escalation solely on jaded U.S. policy. We cannot possibly expect Washington to direct all of its efforts toward North Korea as the number one issue for the United States, ignoring other pressing issues such as the climate catastrophe, Russian aggression and Chinese competition, vulnerable supply chains and weakened markets, and domestic political polarization – to name just a few. And even if North Korea were to become priority number one for Washington overnight, Pyongyang has time and again proven its ability to respond in bad faith. Nonetheless, we cannot begin to realistically expect top-ticket breakthroughs on North Korea with backburner input.
So, the United States and North Korea are back on the escalation merry-go-round, just as they were in 2017. In 2018, we managed to back down from the brink. But it is dangerous to assume that one side will always back down, and we will simply continue managing the escalation game. For the longer we play this game, our likelihood to somehow “win” does not become any greater – but the likelihood of one side making a mistake does. And in what has now become a game of nuclear brinkmanship, the consequences of complacency could not be more dire.
North Korea and US Complacency: Why We Can’t Get Off the Escalation Merry-Go-Round
Even as Pyongyang’s missile tests reach record highs, a new survey shows that fewer Americans are worried about North Korea.
thediplomat.com · by Andy Hong · November 15, 2022
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Over the past few months, North Korea has carried out an unprecedented blitz of missile launches, artillery exercises, and massive air maneuvers. This crescendo of fire reached a fever pitch in response to large-scale joint air exercises conducted between Seoul and Washington. Amid these tensions, the United States has reiterated its unwavering commitment to respond forcefully to any use of nuclear weapons by North Korea.
Despite the frequency and intensity of North Korean provocations, fewer Americans are paying attention to the country. A November 2022 Chicago Council poll painted a picture of a uninterested public. Fewer Americans identified North Korea as a critical threat, half of Americans believed that the United States should learn to live with a nuclear North Korea, and 77 percent believed that the United States should focus on its problems at home instead.
A soon-to-be released KEI-YouGov study conducted in September 2022 echoes this lackluster – and increasingly waning – U.S. public interest in North Korea. In 2021, 38 percent of respondents who followed Asia-Pacific news viewed North Korea as the most critical foreign policy challenge to the United States; in 2022, the figure fell to 23 percent and was overtaken by 40 percent who saw Iran as a more significant threat.
Interestingly, the unfavorable figures for North Korea showed a statistically significant drop across the board from 2021 to 2022. These figures may reflect the influence of the many geopolitical threats that Americans must contend with. The dwindling interest – despite Pyongyang’s groundbreaking announcement of a codified nuclear doctrine during the survey period – nevertheless suggests a level of public fatigue after decades of repetitive cycles of escalation and de-escalation with North Korea.
While respondents continued to believe that cooperation with South Korea is in the U.S. national interest, North Korea has fallen in the list of priorities. A greater number of respondents in 2022 believed that the United States should increase its troop presence in South Korea. Four in 10 Americans believed the United States should maintain U.S. service members in South Korea even on the basis of an agreement with North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, with the number of those believing that the troop presence should be increased in the same scenario doubling from 2021. But the unifying variable throughout is that the most important U.S. national interest in East Asia is countering the rise of China. The defense of U.S. friends and allies falls to a sizable yet still distant second.
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Put cynically, there is a lack of political incentive for U.S. policymakers to take bold action on North Korea, which often comes with timetables that far outlast electoral terms, and may require compromises. Policymakers have learned that political capital has been empirically far better spent elsewhere than striking deals with North Korea. Given the current levels of public interest, the unfortunate reality is that this approach is unlikely to change anytime soon.
Attempting to overcome the traditional cycle of escalation and crisis management with Pyongyang has long been a prolific source of political friction within the United States. Congressional barriers to funding the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) were instrumental in the breakdown of the 1994 Geneva Accord. The Trump administration’s unconventional, unilateral summit diplomacy approach turned out to be but a surface-deep show, more focused on spectacle than achieving tangible breakthroughs. Today, the Biden administration faces criticism for slow movement on appointing a North Korean human rights ambassador, blaming a “laborious” vetting process that would save the administration precious political capital.
As we once again confront the prospects of armed conflict with Pyongyang, it is clear that Washington – both Congress and the executive branch – doesn’t have much space to improve its North Korea policy and avoid perpetrating this cycle. A proactive policy beyond deterrence and economic containment on North Korea will need a longer time horizon, significantly greater willingness to spend political capital to depart from the status quo, and greater bipartisan consensus on any new initiatives. That alone is a lot to ask in a normal year. In this economy and in this political climate, such a challenge could not be further from the priority for the voting public and its elected representatives.
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It would be foolhardy to place the blame for this perpetual cycle of escalation and de-escalation solely on jaded U.S. policy. We cannot possibly expect Washington to direct all of its efforts toward North Korea as the number one issue for the United States, ignoring other pressing issues such as the climate catastrophe, Russian aggression and Chinese competition, vulnerable supply chains and weakened markets, and domestic political polarization – to name just a few. And even if North Korea were to become priority number one for Washington overnight, Pyongyang has time and again proven its ability to respond in bad faith. Nonetheless, we cannot begin to realistically expect top-ticket breakthroughs on North Korea with backburner input.
So, the United States and North Korea are back on the escalation merry-go-round, just as they were in 2017. In 2018, we managed to back down from the brink. But it is dangerous to assume that one side will always back down, and we will simply continue managing the escalation game. For the longer we play this game, our likelihood to somehow “win” does not become any greater – but the likelihood of one side making a mistake does. And in what has now become a game of nuclear brinkmanship, the consequences of complacency could not be more dire.
thediplomat.com · by Andy Hong · November 15, 2022
5. Fugitive underwear boss gave Kim Jong-un Hermès saddle, say prosecutors
Wednesday
November 16, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Fugitive underwear boss gave Kim Jong-un Hermès saddle, say prosecutors
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/11/16/national/northKorea/korea-sbw-ssangbangwool/20221116050006823.html
Kim Seong-tae, former chairman and de-facto owner of SBW Group
The former chairman and de-facto owner of a major South Korean underwear company who faces charges of corruption is believed to have given North Korean leader Kim Jong-un an Hermès saddle.
Prosecutors investigating Kim Seong-tae, ex-chairman of SBW Group, exclusively told the JoongAng Ilbo on Tuesday that sources at the company told them their former boss gave the North Korean leader a saddle made by luxury brand Hermès in late 2019 to clinch business deals with the North.
SBW executives were said to have handed over the gift to North Korean officials in China in November 2019, saying it was for the leader.
Kim Jong-un is known to be an enthusiastic equestrian.
SBW sources who spoke with prosecutors said their chairman, at the time, did not reveal how much the saddle cost.
If the testimony is true, it would mean the ex-chairman of SBW violated UN National Security Resolution 1718, which forbids any export of luxury goods to the North.
A prosecutor said Kim Seong-tae apparently tried to capitalize on thawing tensions between the two Koreas three years ago under the former Moon Jae-in administration.
Kim, who stepped down from the SBW chairmanship in May 2021 but allegedly remains in charge of major decision-making at the company, faces a slew of charges of corruption, including one that involves Democratic Party (DP) Chairman Lee Jae-myung.
Prosecutors believe Kim paid Lee’s legal fees with company funds when Lee was being prosecuted for violating the election law in 2018, when he was governor of Gyeonggi province.
Lee was acquitted of that charge by the Supreme Court in 2020.
Lee’s lawyer allegedly received nearly 300 million won ($229,000) from SBW Group during the trial, and an additional 2 billion won in SBW stock that he could sell after three years.
Aside from the allegations involving Lee, Kim is under investigation for stock price manipulation and smuggling company funds out of the country to give to North Korean officials for future business opportunities.
In January 2019, Kim is believed to have given $1.5 million to North Korean officials in China in four transactions, according to prosecutors. SBW executives allegedly hid dollars in their luggage and flew to China. Prosecutions think Kim contacted officials from Pyongyang’s state-controlled Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, which is in charge of inter-Korean exchanges.
As prosecutors zeroed in on Kim, the ex-chairman fled the country on May 31 and is currently suspected to be somewhere in Southeast Asia.
Interpol has issued a red notice for the search and arrest of Kim.
Sources in the judiciary exclusively told the JoongAng Ilbo this week that Kim recently reached out to prosecutors “through several routes,” saying he was willing to return to Korea and show up for questioning on the case involving DP Chairman Lee if prosecutors closed investigations on his alleged embezzlement and stock manipulation at SBW.
Prosecutors are said to have refused that offer.
A lawyer who’s close to Kim told the JoongAng Ilbo on the condition of anonymity said Kim was currently searching for the “right timing” to return to Korea.
“He wants to continue doing business after getting these investigations over with,” said the lawyer.
“He’s looking for the right timing to return to Korea because he wants to give the impression to his business partners that he’s trying to stay loyal to them by refusing to show up for questioning, but eventually had no choice but to return to the country.”
A prosecutor told the JoongAng Ilbo that Kim, at one point, tried to blackmail them, saying that he “colluded” with several prosecutors and would reveal their names if they keep focusing on him.
BY PARK HYEON-JUN, LEE SUNG-EUN [lee.sungeun@joongang.co.kr]
6. Yoon, Xi share views for peace on Korean peninsula
Yoon, Xi share views for peace on Korean peninsula
koreaherald.com · by Shin Ji-hye · November 15, 2022
President Yoon Suk-yeol expressed caution against protectionism and vowed Korea's support for the G-20's cooperation in the food and energy sectors as well as contributions to international solidarity in the health sector, at the G-20 Summit on Tuesday.
On the sidelines of the summit, Yoon had a bilateral summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the evening to discuss China's role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue at a time when its seventh nuclear test could take place at any moment amid North Korea's all-out provocations.
The two leaders entered the talks at 5:20 p.m., slightly past the initially announced time, and the talks ended after about 25 minutes, the presidential office said. The meeting took place without pool coverage of reporters from the two countries.
According to the written statement released by the office, Yoon emphasized close communication between South Korea and China saying, "We will cooperate for a more developed Korea-China relationship based on mutual respect,” in his remarks during the summit with Xi.
Yoon told him the diplomatic goal of the Korean government is to “lead and contribute to freedom, peace and prosperity” in the East Asia and the international community. China’s role is important in “pursuing freedom, peace and prosperity” in the international community, he added.
"We look forward to working together on global issues such as peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, including economic and human exchanges, and even climate change and energy,” Yoon said.
President Yoon pointed out that North Korea is continuing its provocations with unprecedented frequency and escalating nuclear and missile threats, and expressed hope that China, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and a neighboring country, will “play a more active and constructive role.”
President Xi responded that North Korea's intention is the key to South Korea’s audacious initiative and that if North Korea responds, China will “actively support and cooperate” to ensure that the plan is well implemented.
Xi said he has not been able to visit Korea due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but he would happily accept President Yoon's invitation to visit Korea when the COVID-19 situation stabilizes to a better extent and hoped that President Yoon would visit China at a mutually convenient time.
This was the first face-to-face meeting between Xi and Yoon, who took office in May. It has been three years since the last Korea-China summit was held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on December 2019, during the former Moon Jae-in government.
Before the trip to Southeast Asia, the presidential office saw the possibility such a summit as dim, saying a meeting between the two leaders would likely only be an encounter or informal talks during the conferences.
Over the weekend at the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia, South Korea, the US and Japan released a joint statement that included their basic positions that Taiwan “remain unchanged” and reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of security and prosperity in the international community.
During the morning sessions on Tuesday, Xi met with Yoon briefly and told him that he looked forward to meeting later in the day, according to the Korean presidential office.
The G-20 Summit was held under the theme of "Recover Together, Recover Stronger," inspired by a desire to jointly shape policies after the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences. Among the various items on the agenda, sessions were held in three areas: food and energy security, health and digital transformation.
In addition to the 20 member countries, representatives of 10 invited countries, including Spain and the Netherlands, and invited international organizations such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank gathered together to discuss major global issues.
In the first session, Yoon told the leaders that international cooperation to cope with global food and energy security threats is of the utmost importance.
“As a responsible member of the international community, we will actively participate in the G-20 cooperation in the food and energy sector, contributing to the freedom of global citizens and the prosperity of the international community,” he said.
Mentioning that all member countries participated in the "standstill" of trade and investment barriers proposed by South Korea at the first G-20 summit in 2008, he urged that they work together to “prevent unreasonable export and production measures” that hinder global food and energy price stability.
He also told the leaders that the nations should focus on “building a green-friendly and sustainable food and energy system,” and pay more attention to the development and sharing of innovative green technologies.
In the second session focusing on health, Yoon vowed that South Korea would contribute to the international community as a “facilitator” of international health solidarity.
In his remarks, Yoon said it is time to regain the freedom that was constrained by the pandemic through strong health solidarity. “It is the solidarity of the international community that protects freedom, which is a universal value for mankind, from another pandemic.”
Korea will contribute more actively to “strengthening and spreading solidarity” among people around the world who share the value of freedom, Yoon said.
G-20 leaders included criticism of the war in Ukraine in their joint statement, according to multiple foreign media outlets.
"Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy," the draft said.
The use or threat of nuclear weapons is unacceptable, the statement said. They called for the peaceful resolution of disputes, efforts to solve crises and diplomacy and dialogue. For the final draft of the statement to be adopted it must be signed by G-20 leaders at the two-day summit on Tuesday.
B-20 Summit
On Monday, Yoon made a speech at the B-20 Summit and attended the Korea-Indonesia business roundtable held at the Nusa Dua Convention Center in Bali, Indonesia, along with Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo ahead of the G-20 Summit.
On Monday night, Yoon said on his Facebook account that during his meeting with Jokowi he proposed “advance cooperation” between the two countries in various fields, including digital transformation and clean energy.
During the business meetings, six memorandums of understanding were signed at the government level and four were signed at the corporate level. Yoon said he believes it will be an “important milestone” in economic cooperation between the two countries.
In particular, the launch of high-level dialogue in the investment sector has a “special meaning” in that it immediately resolves investment-related difficulties between the two countries and responsibly examines cooperative projects, he said.
By Shin Ji-hye (shinjh@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Shin Ji-hye · November 15, 2022
7. South Korea’s Yoon tells Xi he wants mutually beneficial, mature ties with China
South Korea’s Yoon tells Xi he wants mutually beneficial, mature ties with China
By CUE The Straits Times1 min
View Original
Chinese President Xi
SEOUL - South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol expressed hopes for a mutually beneficial, mature relationship with China during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday, South Korea’s Newsis agency reported.
The two leaders held their first face-to-face talks on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G-20) conference in Bali.
Mr Yoon expressed hopes for greater cooperation to rein in North Korea’s nuclear and missile development, and to tackle regional and global issues including climate change, Newsis said.
Mr Xi told Mr Yoon that the two countries’ relationship is important, according to the report.
China will speed up bilateral free-trade agreement negotiations with South Korea, state television CCTV reported Mr Xi as saying.
China will deepen cooperation with South Korea on areas including high-tech manufacturing, big data and green economy, Mr Xi told Mr Yoon. REUTERS
8. Yoon, Japan's Kishida agreed to seek quick settlement of forced labor issue: official
Positive signs. But all the usual caveats and cliches apply: actions will speak louder than words and the devil is in the details.
Yoon, Japan's Kishida agreed to seek quick settlement of forced labor issue: official | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · November 16, 2022
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, Nov. 16 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed to seek a quick settlement of the issue of compensation for Korean victims of wartime forced labor during their summit in Cambodia earlier this week, a presidential official said Wednesday.
The official was referring to a Yoon-Kishida summit held on the sidelines of regional gatherings in Phnom Penh on Sunday, during which he said the leaders affirmed their clear commitment to resolving a "pending issue" between the two countries.
Pending issue is a reference to ongoing negotiations between the two countries over how to settle differences over a 2018 South Korean court ruling that Japanese firms should pay compensation to Korean victims of forced labor during World War II.
"The overall tone was that we should move more quickly, and that the two leaders should pay closer attention and lend further support to induce not only a resolution of the forced labor issue but also an improvement in South Korea-Japan relations," the official told reporters.
"The tone was that since the gap has been greatly reduced, we should quickly look for ways to quickly resolve it and swiftly settle the issue," he added.
The official also denied South Korea was closing its "diplomatic space" with China by aligning closer with the United States and Japan through its new Indo-Pacific strategy unveiled by Yoon in Phnom Penh.
"There is still plenty of diplomatic space with China," he said, citing climate change and supply chain issues as some of the areas of cooperation on a global scale.
"We plan to combine strengths with China, and seek and actively discover the space to contribute to an expansion of our common frontier," he added.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · November 16, 2022
9. Yoon-Xi summit reveals gap in approach to North Korea
Excerpts:
The National Security Office said on Wednesday that there is still “enough diplomatic space” with China.
When asked by a reporter whether the Korean government’s diplomacy is too one-sided with the US, a high-ranking official from the NSO said on the condition of anonymity, “It is difficult to agree.”
He added that, basically, the government is conducting diplomacy to “expand the breadth and depth of cooperation,” promoting Korea-China relations and relations with other countries, centering on the Korea-US alliance."
Yoon-Xi summit reveals gap in approach to North Korea
Korea, China readouts only highlight what they want to tell
koreaherald.com · by Shin Ji-hye · November 16, 2022
The first Seoul-Beijing summit in three years laid bare the differences in the two sides' approach to North Korea, experts say.
President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a 25-minute talk in Indonesia during the G20 Summit on Tuesday. It has been three years since the last Korea-China summit was held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, during the former Moon Jae-in government.
The presidential office thought the possibility of the bilateral talks was low even until the US-China summit, but they confirmed the meeting about seven hours before it was held. After the meeting, both countries released their own versions of statements.
The statement released by South Korea included Yoon’s remarks on demanding China’s response to North Korea’s continued threats, while Chinese state media CCTV did not mention any of North Korean issues but focused on economic cooperation and opposed its politicization implicitly criticizing the US.
The summit turned out to be a confirmation of each leader's differences, experts say.
According to the readout released by the Korean presidential office, President Yoon pointed out that North Korea is continuing its provocations with unprecedented frequency and escalating nuclear and missile threats, and expressed hope that China, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and a neighboring country, will “play a more active and constructive role.”
Xi responded that South Korea and China have a common interest in the issue of the Korean Peninsula and should protect the peace, and hopes that South Korea will actively improve inter-Korean relations. He added North Korea's intention is the key to South Korea’s audacious initiative and that if North Korea responds, China will “actively support and cooperate” to ensure the plan is well implemented.
“South Korea wanted China to respond more aggressively to North Korea's provocations, but China avoided giving a direct answer and suggested engaging in dialogue with the North,” said James Kim, a senior research fellow and director of the Center for Regional Studies at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
“China appears to want South Korea to talk with North Korea first instead of doing joint exercises with the US and Japan or implementing sanctions,” he said.
There are multiple reasons China does not want to be involved in North Korean issues, said Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification’s North Korean research division.
“First, China wants to keep North Korea as a bargaining card for negotiating with the US in the future,” he said.
From China’s point of view, if they cooperate with the US “too early,” there is not much to gain. “So they decided to wait patiently to use it at a decisive moment,” he said.
Another reason is “North Korea appears to be not subordinate to China and will do a nuclear test regardless of what China says” Hong said. “North Korea is going its own way.”
US President Joe Biden also said, “It’s difficult to say I am certain whether China can control North Korea,” when asked by a reporter about to what extent China has the ability to talk North Korea out of conducting nuclear tests after talking bilaterally with Xi on Monday in Indonesia.
According to the readouts released by CCTV, what China wants from Korea was clear and there were no North Korean issues. Most of the statements centered around economic cooperation and implicitly expressed concerns about South Korea’s close ties with the US that aim to exclude China in the economic sector.
Xi told Yoon the two countries should “keep the global industrial and supply chains secure,” stable and unclogged, and “oppose politicizing economic cooperation” or “overstretching the concept of security on such cooperation,” CCTV said.
Korea is participating in various US-led initiatives that exclude China. They include the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, Chip 4 and recently the nation’s Indo-Pacific strategy that is aligned with the US strategy.
“China showed no interest in North Korean issues during the summits in Indonesia,” Hong said. What they focused on was showing the US-led supply reshuffle plans “hamper” international trade order, especially in their utmost important supply chain sector.
The Korean presidential office did not include the supply issue in its readouts because it was so contradictory to the actions that Korea and the US are taking, he added.
Next steps
Looking forward, conflicts with China are inevitable as Korea gets closer to the US.
“In the end, we need to clarify our diplomatic position internally and continue to persuade China accordingly,” James Kim said.
“As far as security is concerned, we must emphasize the alliance with the US,” said Kang Joon-young, professor of the Graduate School of International Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “However, we also showed that we try not to lean toward any side through the Korean version of the Indo-Pacific strategy. It's most important to show that we stick to those principles.”
At the Korea-ASEAN summit, President Yoon Suk-yeol announced he would implement the Indo-Pacific strategy using engagement, trust and inclusiveness as the three principles of cooperation. The “inclusive” principle seems to contain a regional order orientation that does not exclude China.
The National Security Office said on Wednesday that there is still “enough diplomatic space” with China.
When asked by a reporter whether the Korean government’s diplomacy is too one-sided with the US, a high-ranking official from the NSO said on the condition of anonymity, “It is difficult to agree.”
He added that, basically, the government is conducting diplomacy to “expand the breadth and depth of cooperation,” promoting Korea-China relations and relations with other countries, centering on the Korea-US alliance."
By Shin Ji-hye (shinjh@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Shin Ji-hye · November 16, 2022
10. North Korea funneled $1b for its nuclear programs through cyber crypto heists
The effectiveness of the regime's all purpose sword.
North Korea funneled $1b for its nuclear programs through cyber crypto heists
koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · November 16, 2022
North Korea has stolen more than $1 billion in cryptocurrencies and hard currencies in the past two years to fund its nuclear weapons program, the US secretary of homeland security said Tuesday in the US.
US Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas made the claim in his written testimony submitted ahead of a plenary session of the Committee on Homeland Security in the House of Representatives.
“In the last two years alone, North Korea has largely funded its weapons of mass destruction programs through cyber heists of cryptocurrencies and hard currencies totaling more than $1 billion,” the US secretary said in the written statement.
“Hostile nations like Russia, the People’s Republic of China, Iran, North Korea and cybercriminals around the world continue to sharpen their tactics and create more adverse consequences.”
The ransomware attacks target financial institutions, hospitals, pipelines, electric grids and water treatment plants to wreak havoc on daily lives, Mayorkas said.
Citing observations from American authorities, including the FBI, Mayorkas said incidents involving ransomware occurred in 14 of the 16 US critical infrastructure sectors, and victims in the first half of 2021 paid an estimated $590 million in ransom, compared to $416 million over all of 2020.
He warned that the actions of hostile nations exploiting the integrated global cyber ecosystem leads to discord, undermines liberal democracy and erodes trust in institutions, public and private alike.
Mayorkas touched on how adversaries, including North Korea, pose as an increased threat for the US, especially in a time when the world has seen human and economic devastation from the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Our adversaries are more aware of the significance of biological threats. Additionally, a global desire to mitigate the consequences of future pandemics is likely to expand global interest in leveraging and advancing biological technology capabilities, including technologies used for biosafety and biosecurity,” Mayorkas said.
“The use of chemical agents by Russia and North Korea in targeted attacks outside their borders in recent years reaffirms our commitment to monitor for and defend against similar attempts in the homeland.”
By Jo He-rim (herim@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · November 16, 2022
11. Yoon in hot water over strained media relations
He must fix this. He must stand up for democratic values which includes a free press. He should simply say: "I made a mistake. I acted out of emotion and not logic and principle and that I stand by a free press, especially a press that criticizes the government to hold it accountable."
Yoon in hot water over strained media relations
koreaherald.com · by Lee Jung-youn · November 16, 2022
President Yoon Suk-yeol is once again facing controversy over his interaction with the media during an overseas trip.
Yoon returned home Wednesday from a trip to Cambodia and Indonesia where he attended a series of multilateral and bilateral summits. However, his actions on the international stage are again being overshadowed by actions taken by himself and his office in dealing with the media.
Yoon’s six-day trip kicked off Friday amid a prolonged confrontation with MBC. The relationship between Yoon and MBC began to worsen during Yoon’s trip to New York in September, in which he was caught on a hot mic using vulgar language aimed at a legislative body, along with a mention of US President Joe Biden's name.
The footage was released by MBC, sparking criticism toward Yoon over his inappropriate behavior and language on the diplomatic stage. The ruling People Power Party and the government denied the context and translation of his overheard comment and hit back at MBC for distributing false information, accusing the company of damaging the national interest.
The conflict over the vulgar language continued, and on the night of Nov. 9, just 36 hours before the president’s trip to Southeast Asia, the presidential office notified MBC reporters that they would not be allowed to board the presidential plane.
An official at the presidential office explained, "We have raised questions about fake news and false reports of MBC several times.” It said barring MBC was a measure for the country's benefit in a briefing held at the presidential office in Yongsan, Seoul, Thursday.
On his regular morning briefing on Thursday, Yoon also emphasized that the decision was made in terms of national interest, “The reason the president travels abroad spending many people's tax money is because important national interests are at stake.”
Several journalists' associations issued a joint statement: “The presidential office's attempt to restrict journalists from gathering news and rejecting journalists from a presidential plane because of critical coverage toward the president is unprecedented suppression on media and violence in Korean constitutional history, and it is a clear challenge to the freedom of speech that the Constitution stipulates."
The presidential office press corps also released a joint statement expressing serious regret. Some liberal-leaning media outlets boycotted the presidential plane in protest.
The friction continued during the trip. During the flight to Bali, Indonesia, Sunday, Yoon separately called two reporters from Channel A and CBS to the private zone of the presidential plane. Two reporters, who are known to be acquainted with the president, are said to have stayed at the private zone for about an hour before returning to the seats for the press corps.
Through a briefing in Bali, Indonesia, Lee Jae-myung, deputy spokesperson for the presidential office, explained that president had a simple private talk with reporters he knows in person, but he does not have any intention to favor certain media, Tuesday.
It was also controversial that the presidential office refused to allow the press corps to cover the Korea-US and Korea-Japan summits. Instead of allowing the press corps to enter the summits held Sunday, the presidential office shared the information with reporters after the event, saying: "It was due to the prior consultation between the two countries. One country cannot unilaterally decide how to cover or report the summit."
Amid continuing discord between the president and the press, opposition parties and media associations strongly condemned Yoon.
Ahn Ho-young, spokesperson for the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, criticized Yoon in a statement Tuesday, posing, “Is it Yoon’s perspective toward the press to suppress the media that criticize him while favoring the friendly ones?
“The presidential plane is a public space operated by people’s tax. Therefore, it is a natural duty to provide equal opportunities to every media outlet, which acts as an agent for the people's right to know.”
Ahn continued, "Blocking MBC reporters from boarding the presidential plane and banning reporters at the summit are measures that cannot be done without the intention to control the media."
The International Federation of Journalists also expressed deep concerns over the presidential office barring MBC from the presidential plane, through a statement posted on its website, saying the decision had set “a dangerous precedent," Tuesday.
"The Korean media has rightly defended its media freedom, and the IFJ commends ongoing solidarity efforts from journalists and media workers to call out government acts of intimidation and censorship through attempts to block media access," the IFJ added.
By Lee Jung-youn (jy@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Lee Jung-youn · November 16, 2022
12. [Herald Interview] S.Korea has to ‘take some risk’ to ensure deterrence on Taiwan
[Herald Interview] S.Korea has to ‘take some risk’ to ensure deterrence on Taiwan
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · November 16, 2022
Patrick Cronin suggests Seoul quietly build capabilities and resilience, but hold them in reserve only for contingency
By Ji Da-gyum
Published : Nov 16, 2022 - 17:45 Updated : Nov 16, 2022 - 18:04
Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville (CG 62) and USS Antietam (CG 54) transit the Taiwan Strait during a routine transit near PLA(N) ships. Chancellorsville is forward-deployed to U.S. 7th Fleet in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Justin Stack)
WASHINGTON -- South Korea has to “take on some risk” to contribute to deterring Chinese aggression against Taiwan as a US ally by reinforcing its own deterrence capabilities and readiness posture vis-a-vis North Korea and resilience against China’s coercive economic statecraft, Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute, said.
“One way to answer that question is to ask what didn’t South Korea do before the invasion happened?” Cronin answered when asked how South Korea can contribute to defending Taiwan if a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan plays out.
“That’s a way of saying that it’s important for allies to take on some risk on the Taiwan scenario if collectively we’re going to preserve deterrence,” Cronin said during an interview with The Korea Herald at his office in Washington, DC, on Nov. 1.
The No. 1 objective of the Biden administration’s national defense strategy is clear: dissuading China from considering the use of force against Taiwan as an option.
“So it’s incumbent on South Korea to recognize that this is the South Korean ally’s main goal,” Cronin said. “South Korea has a role to play in ensuring deterrence over Taiwan, not just North Korea.”
But to that end, Cronin said, South Korea “has to take on some risk” to contribute to maintaining deterrence against China.
“Practically speaking, what does that mean? One, South Korea has to be prepared for one-and-half wars. It has to first look at its day job of protecting deterrence on the peninsula because North Korea may try something if there’s a dust-up over Taiwan or if there’s a conflict. So it has to be able to prevail ... on the peninsula,” Cronin said.
“But in addition, it has to be willing and able to provide at least support for possibly ongoing operations to break a blockade or to provide critical support for people trying to stop an invasion of Taiwan.”
In essence, South Korea has to be prepared for all possibilities, including concurrent military conflicts in the Taiwan Strait and on the Korean Peninsula, while enhancing military capabilities.
At the same time, South Korea should build up resilience against China’s potential retaliation, including coercive economic measures that could be triggered by South Korea’s readiness to support Taiwan in a contingency.
“That means South Korea has to be prepared for a withering pressure campaign from China,” Cronin said. “So it’s probably better not done with a high profile and it’s probably better done below the radar.”
Cronin called for South Korea to build its resilience and capabilities, but hold them in reserve only for a contingency, saying South Korea has to “break glass in the event of fire.”
If China invaded Taiwan, South Korea could provide weapons and non-lethal equipment, he said. Seoul also should work to keep the sea lines of communication open to prevent illegal maritime acts, including blockades, from occurring around the peninsula and in the region.
More importantly, a Taiwan contingency should be a key consideration when South Korea and the US plan their deterrence posture, Cronin said, underscoring the importance of understanding the implications of armed conflict over Taiwan and the US military engagement for the security of the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region.
“We don’t want to act in a way that threatens South Korea and vice versa,” Cronin said. “South Korea may need to act to help us to preserve deterrence, even if it looks very risky. Because sometimes deterrence requires showing that you’re willing to use force even if ultimately you want peace.”
Patrick Cronin. Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute, speaks at an event hosted by Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul in November. (Courtesy of Patrick Cronin)
Don’t let N. Korea define objectives
But Cronin pointed out that China will try to exploit a gap between the political will and capability of South Korea and the US to deter China, when asked about how the allies can bridge the difference in their strategic objective in terms of deterrence posture.
“I don’t intend to encourage a gap between the two. So, I don’t think we can afford to ask Korea to do too much directly toward China,” Cronin said, noting that South Korea faces existential threats from North Korea.
“But as South Korea builds up its capabilities, we can see the potential benefit for improving deterrence overall in Northeast Asia, and not just vis-a-vis North Korea.”
South Korean officials have said the main target of deterrence is North Korea. But the US seems to see that deterrence should be set up against broader regional threats. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said he expected to discuss “how the alliance can further enhance our deterrence posture against aggression from North Korea and other systemic competitors, including the People's Republic of China and Russia” in his meeting with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup in July.
Cronin pointed out that the US extended deterrence is a subset of “overall deterrence,” underscoring that South Korea should recognize that the US commitments to the defense of South Korea are “partly dependent on overall deterrence.”
“We can’t simply have peace on the peninsula if we have insecurity and instability in Northeast Asia. So, South Korea has to understand that it also has to lean forward on helping work with the United States to secure stability vis-a-vis China, even if they don’t want to openly say this is deterring China.”
When asked about the effectiveness of the alliance’s strategy tailored to deter North Korea, Cronin said the deterrence strategy was working.
“There are dynamics, though, that make equal concerns of both potential for escalation and potential for attempts to use nuclear weapons for coercion. Deterrence, therefore, is a dynamic aspect of the policy that must be carefully calibrated,” Cronin said.
“We have to shift sometimes to avoid escalation and sometimes to ensure North Korea doesn’t think that it can use nuclear weapons to coerce South Korea, the United States, Japan, or others.”
Against that backdrop, Cronin viewed that the Biden administration was “pursuing a healthy deterrence strategy,” referring to the recently released, long-awaited Nuclear Posture Review. The US clarified that “there is no scenario in which the Kim regime could employ nuclear weapons and survive.”
To enhance the viability of US extended deterrence, first, South Korea and the US should separately and nationally reinforce their capabilities which are interconnected and complementary in countering and deterring North Korean threats.
“The second point is that South Korea should have a greater capacity for threatening North Korea if, as we see, North Korea keeps improving its arsenal to threaten South Korea,” Cronin said.
“Thirdly, the United States needs to ensure that the forward-deployed assets, platforms and weapons it has, both in South Korea and Japan are the most advanced and most ready for swift action should aggression be taken out by North Korea.”
North Korea in September pronounced an aggressive nuclear doctrine that allows for preemptive nuclear strikes. At the same time, North Korea has ratcheted up threats to strike key targets in South Korean territory with tactical nuclear weapons intended for use on the battlefield.
But Cronin does not see the redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons on the peninsula as a viable option at the moment. The US deployed tactical or nonstrategic nuclear weapons on the peninsula between 1958 and 1991.
Instead, the US and South Korea may have to proactively look at other “offensive options” as North Korea has sought to develop tactical nuclear weapons designed to be used on a battlefield. For instance, deploying a nuclear-powered attack submarine equipped with Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, which currently does not exist, could be an option.
But despite mounting North Korean threats, Cronin voiced opposition to the idea of accepting North Korea as a nuclear state to manage and reduce tension and risk of war on the Korean Peninsula.
“From an American perspective, we cannot count on accepting a nuclear North Korea as a permanent state without ensuring that South Korea has equal capabilities.”
More importantly, the US and South Korea should not renounce the ultimate goal of achieving complete denuclearization in face of North Korea’s continuing nuclear saber-rattling and countless violations of UN Security Council resolutions and international laws.
“Don’t let North Korea define our objectives just because it has nuclear weapons. Our goal is still peace through a denuclearized peninsula. That’s the long-term goal,” Cronin said.
Cronin underlined that it is imperative for the US and South Korea to retain the ultimate goal to make the North Korean leadership change their perception and recognize that he is on the wrong track to achieving his own goal.
“Whereas we have lots of accountability, we’re not perfect and we’re wrong all the time. But we have people tell us that. In North Korea, nobody tells them that. So it’s up to us to tell Kim Jong-un that, ‘No, you will not achieve your goals with nuclear weapons,’” Cronin said.
“We are actually on the right track, but North Korea is on the wrong track. The ball is in North Korea’s court. In the meantime, we see the ball game they’re playing, so we have to play on our own as well.”
____________
The Yoon Suk-yeol government has signaled a preference for strategic clarity amid the intensifying US-China rivalry, jettisoning its predecessor’s balancing act.
But in Seoul, policy discussion on South Korea’s Indo-Pacific strategy has focused less on the country’s potential role in the event of China’s invasion of Taiwan and more on how it will counter threats from North Korea.
The absence of a face-to-face meeting between President Yoon Suk-yeol and US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi during her trip to South Korea in August, which came right after her visit to Taiwan, illustrated the dilemma South Korea faces over Taiwan Strait issues.
If a Taiwan contingency were to break out, South Korea would inevitably be under enormous pressure from both the US and China. Experts share their views on South Korea’s role in a possible military conflict between the US and China over Taiwan in their in-person interview with The Korea Herald in Washington before the 54th South Korea-US Security Consultative Meeting. -- Ed.
By Ji Da-gyum (dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)
13. Experts say additional THAAD deployment unlikely - for now
Do we have the systems to deploy additional battery(s)?
But I would rather see the full development of a trilateral integrated missile defense. (which was also one of the Chinese "Three No")
Excerpt:
Two former White House security officials ― Dennis Wilder and Gary Samore ― said during an interview with Radio Free Asia that one of the U.S.' possible moves could be to deploy another THAAD system in South Korea, which will certainly draw a hostile reaction from Beijing.
Experts say additional THAAD deployment unlikely - for now
The Korea Times · November 16, 2022
President Yoon Suk-yeol, left, shakes hands with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the G-20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, Tuesday. UPI-Yonhap
Yoon can't handle fallout due to low approval rating, but North Korea's nuclear test could change mood
By Jung Min-ho
Despite North Korea's intensifying nuclear and missile threats, South Korea is unlikely to take steps for the installment of additional U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries in its territory unless North Korea conducts another nuclear weapons test, experts said Wednesday.
Their assessment comes after China's President Xi Jinping showed little interest in resolving security issues regarding North Korea during Monday's summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Bali. Speaking to reporters afterward, Biden said his administration would do what is necessary to protect itself and its allies even if that means being "more up in the face" of China.
Two former White House security officials ― Dennis Wilder and Gary Samore ― said during an interview with Radio Free Asia that one of the U.S.' possible moves could be to deploy another THAAD system in South Korea, which will certainly draw a hostile reaction from Beijing.
"It is easier said than done," Jeong Han-bum, an international relations professor at Korea National Defense University, told The Korea Times. "The economy is in bad shape now and it will get worse if China takes retaliatory economic measures just like it did last time. There will be a lot of political tension over, say, where to locate the new THAAD unit, and President Yoon Suk-yeol does not have a high enough approval rating to be able to handle the issue."
U.S. President Joe Biden poses during a virtual summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, in the White House in Washington, D.C., in this Nov. 15, 2021, file photo. AFP-Yonhap
For Biden, such rhetoric is politically reasonable, given that China-bashing would be good for his popularity at home. "But spending more money and sending additional troops for a new THAAD unit is a different story," Jeong added.
As a presidential candidate, Yoon pledged to work with Biden to install an additional THAAD unit in an effort to build up South Korea's defense systems against evolving threats from the North. But China has opposed the further deployment, claiming the real target of the U.S. system is China, not the North, as the THAAD radar can be reconfigured to peer deep into its territory. Following the South Korean government's decision in 2017 to install a THAAD unit in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, Beijing retaliated by unofficially suspending Chinese group tours to South Korea and damaging the China business of South Korean companies in "THAAD retaliation."
If South Korea and the U.S. ever agree to increase THAAD deployment, the location would likely be in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, where U.S. military bases and key military facilities are situated, according to Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum.
"The area is expected to be the prime target of the North Korean military if a conflict occurs. More THAAD units will surely improve our missile defense system," Shin said.
North Korea has conducted weapons tests at an unprecedented pace this year, firing dozens of ballistic missiles. Intelligence reports show that Pyongyang is now set for its first nuclear weapons test since 2017. Yet China, along with Russia, has used its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to thwart any attempts for additional sanctions on the North.
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At Tuesday's summit with Xi, Yoon called for China to play an "active and constructive role" in reining in North Korea to stop its provocations, but the Chinese leader promised nothing.
All this suggests a widening rift between Seoul and Beijing and an ominous sign of what could happen if North Korea follows through with its next nuclear test, said Kim Sung-joo, an honorary professor in the political science and diplomacy department at Sungkyunkwan University.
"Although I do not think the deployment of an additional THAAD unit is imminent, the Yoon administration is clearly heading in that direction. If the North conducts a nuclear test, it will change the atmosphere and may prompt the move," Kim said. "The administration recently announced its Indo-Pacific strategy (of the rules-based international order built on universal values), which gives the impression that South Korea is taking the U.S.' side. I think China has noticed. All this makes it even more challenging to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue through diplomacy."
The Korea Times · November 16, 2022
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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