PDF | Research |Week of Oct 31, 2022

Rates and the Global Outlook

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We conclude our unpacking of the rich content delivered by our three top economists in last month’s exclusive webinar [link] by looking at global policies.

The Fed is way ahead of the other central banks in its quantitative tightening and rate hike program. The ECB is “dithering” and the BOE not well organized. Japan continues to maintain a very easy rate policy. The Brazil's Banco Central has hiked rates by over 1000 bps, and markets have rewarded them, helped by energy exports to China.

China over the last twenty-five years has been the engine of global growth. No longer. It suffers from deep-seated problems, economic weakness has been persistent...

2022 has proven to be the best year for US dollar strengthening in over twenty years.

Our latest data shows capital raised by private debt fund managers continues at a consistent level, despite multiple headwinds.

It’s now an uncertain time for private debt fundraising as investors confront the volatility of the economic and geopolitical climate as well as, in many cases, overallocations to private markets due to the public market turmoil...

As concerns about the potential for a recession continue to cause heightened volatility across the market, more focus is put on enterprise valuations. Last quarter, LBO purchase price multiples in the large corporate syndicated market declined...

Contact: Elizabeth Han/ Refinitiv LPC

Third quarter exit volume hit its lowest point since Q2 2020, according to the Q3 US PE Breakdown. So did exit value, for that matter. All told, an estimated $293 billion has been sold off this year, which actually stacks up well against...

Portfolio managers are potentially facing a 16% rise in the number of borrowers that cannot generate enough cash flow to meet interest expenses by the end of 2023, based on an analysis by KBRA DLD’s new parent, Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA)...

Contact: Kelly Thompson / Direct Lending Deals

Private debt is increasingly attractive to LPs amid global inflation and rising interest rates. Year to date, the average size of private debt funds closed has increased to a record $1.3bn, almost double that of 2020’s $704mn...

Contact: Valerie Kor / Preqin

Source: Debtwire Par

Institutional loan issuance has plummeted to a third of the levels seen last year. During the first nine months of 2022, institutional volume was USD 233.2bn, down 68% from USD 726.9bn in 9M21, and 39% below the USD 384bn seen in...

Contact: Vincent Daigger/ Debtwire