Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“I never got to the point where I lost faith in my country and my Constitution,” he said. “I just lost faith in some people who I thought were talking out of both sides of their mouths.”

– Willie Merkerson

"Above all, we must realize that no arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women. It is a weapon our adversaries in today's world do not have."

- President Reagan

"Perfection of means and confusion of ends seems to characterize our age."

- Albert Einstein

Although a day after our Independence Day Celebration the 4 minutes spent watching David Cohen giving his toast to America will still be time well spent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90sW8QESJI4

1. Yoon to travel to U.S. next week for NATO summit, Indo-Pacific Command visit

2. N. Korea underscores swift, accurate weather forecasts for agriculture during monsoon season

3. Love lost? How Putin could spoil a Trump push to rekindle ties with Kim Jong Un

4. After a lull, South Korea is suddenly talking about going nuclear again

5. Police endorse charges for man who said ROK should accept North Korean invasion

6. FM highlights importance of 'mutually considerate' attitude in bilateral ties with Japan

7. N. Korean officials shake down illegal profiteers for bribes

8. N. Korean women's union promotes superiority of socialist system

9. N. Korea to import equipment for hydropower plants

10. Deepening Russia-North Korea ties test US-South Korea deterrence strategy

11. [Interview: Former Deputy Secretary Armitage] 'The deployment of North Korean troops will be a bloody experiment'

12. Putin’s diplomacy with North Korea deepens the global risk in Ukraine

13. Podcast: John Linton: Why Korean reunification could happen tomorrow

1. Yoon to travel to U.S. next week for NATO summit, Indo-Pacific Command visit

(LEAD) Yoon to travel to U.S. next week for NATO summit, Indo-Pacific Command visit | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · July 5, 2024

(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks, background in paras 3-4, 6-10; CHANGES photo)

By Kim Eun-jung

SEOUL, July 5 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol will travel to the United States next week to attend the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington and visit the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii, his office said Friday.

Yoon will visit Washington from Wednesday to Thursday to meet with NATO leaders and discuss the war in Ukraine and cooperation between the transatlantic security alliance and the Indo-Pacific region, Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo said.

Ahead of the summit, Yoon will stop in Hawaii on Monday and Tuesday to visit the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to receive a security briefing and encourage the personnel at the command.

The U.S.-led joint maritime exercise, Rim of the Pacific Exercise, has been under way in Hawaii since late June, involving 29 countries, including South Korea.

South Korea was invited to the NATO summit for the third consecutive year as one of the non-NATO partners in the Indo-Pacific region, which include Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Yoon attended two previous NATO summits held in Spain in 2022 and Lithuania in 2023.

Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo announces President Yoon Suk Yeol's plan to attend the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Washington, D.C., during a briefing at the presidential office in Seoul on July 5, 2024. (Yonhap)

On June 10, Yoon will have a series of bilateral talks with his counterparts from the Czech Republic, Sweden, Finland and Norway as well as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, with talks under way to arrange additional meetings, according to Kim.

The next day, he is scheduled to join a session of NATO allies and partners and hold a four-way meeting with leaders from Indo-Pacific partner nations to discuss ways to expand security cooperation in response to deepening military ties between Russia and North Korea.

Yoon also plans to attend a NATO public forum, an event jointly hosted by NATO and think tanks in Europe and the U.S., and deliver a speech.

"We will send a strong message regarding the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, and discuss ways to enhance cooperation among NATO allies and Indo-Pacific partners," Kim said in a briefing.

While a trilateral summit between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan has not yet been arranged, Seoul is open to "all possibilities" for their gathering on the sidelines of the NATO summit, a senior presidential official said.

ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · July 5, 2024

2. N. Korea underscores swift, accurate weather forecasts for agriculture during monsoon season

N. Korea underscores swift, accurate weather forecasts for agriculture during monsoon season | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · July 5, 2024

SEOUL, July 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Friday stressed the need for swift and accurate weather forecasts, as heavy rain likely to fall during the summer monsoon season could seriously affect the country's agriculture.

The Rodong Sinmun, the North's main newspaper, reported that having accurate weather forecasts is a matter of survival for the agricultural sector, which is gravely affected by weather conditions.

North Korea held a science conference on weather and ocean earlier this week in a bid to explore ways to minimize damage from typhoons, heavy rain, droughts and heat waves, according to the Korean Central News Agency.

North Korea is vulnerable to flash flooding and heavy rain due to poor irrigation and deforestation. The country has been suffering from chronic food shortages that were aggravated amid global sanctions on its nuclear and missile programs and unfavorable weather.

At the latest plenary party meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that "the farming situation throughout the country up to now is fairly good," calling for further efforts to ramp up crop output.

The North's crop production is estimated to have reached 4.82 million tons last year, but it was still below 5.76 million tons, the annual amount that the North needs to feed its people, according to a projection by the Food and Agriculture Organization for North Korea.

This image, captured from footage of North Korea's state-run Korean Central Television on Aug. 22, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (2nd from R) inspecting a flooded area in South Pyongan Province the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · July 5, 2024

3. Love lost? How Putin could spoil a Trump push to rekindle ties with Kim Jong Un

Love lost? How Putin could spoil a Trump push to rekindle ties with Kim Jong Un

https://www.nknews.org/2024/07/love-lost-how-putin-could-spoil-a-trump-push-to-rekindle-ties-with-kim-jong-un/

Ex-president’s reelection could form diplomatic love triangle, forcing North Korea to choose between US talks and Russia

Gabriela Bernal July 5, 2024

Former U.S. President Trump and Kim Jong Un speak with reporters at the JSA | Image: Trump White House Archived via Flickr (June 30, 2019)

After last week’s U.S. presidential election debate, the possibility of a Donald Trump comeback seems more real than ever, and with it the possibility that the former leader could push to resume diplomatic engagement when he returns to office.

But despite Trump and Kim Jong Un’s history of “love letters” and flashy summits, there is a third player who could come in between the two this time: Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Kim and Putin’s relationship has deepened significantly since the start of the war in Ukraine and their meeting last September in Russia. Their countries are now closer than ever after the two leaders signed a new mutual defect pact at their summit in Pyongyang last month.

While Trump and Kim once posed for photos side by side, the North Korean leader is now going on drives with his Russian counterpart, whom he calls “the dearest friend of the Korean people.”

This doesn’t mean there’s no hope left for the former U.S. president to rekindle what he had with Kim. While better relations with Russia may provide North Korea with temporary benefits, Pyongyang is well aware that the only way it can achieve its long-term goals is by striking a deal with the U.S.

For this reason, Kim could shift his focus back to Trump if the latter is reelected and if he adopts a changed North Korea policy, though he will still have to weigh whether risking a second round of diplomacy with the U.S. is worth sidelining his close ally in Moscow.

Kim Jong Un and then-U.S. President Donald Trump shake hands at the Inter-Korean border, June 30, 2019 | Image: Trump White House

FROM ENEMIES TO PENPALS

The relationship between Trump and Kim didn’t start off on a positive note after Trump was elected in 2016, with the U.S. president threatening “fire and fury” and Kim warning of an attack on Guam. Tensions eased, however, after inter-Korean ties warmed ahead of the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics.

Trump agreed to meet with Kim, and the first U.S.-DPRK summit took place on June 12 in Singapore. After their historic meeting, the two leaders released a joint statement agreeing to establish “new” U.S.-DPRK relations and to cooperate on the full denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

While short on details, the statement signaled both sides’ desire to continue talks. In the months following the summit, Trump declared that he and Kim “fell in love” after exchanging various “beautiful” letters.

But the love didn’t last. Working-level negotiations following the summit hit an impasse, with Pyongyang accusing Washington of making “gangster-like” demands.

Although President Moon Jae-in’s mediating efforts ultimately helped the two leaders agree to a second summit in Hanoi the following February, this meeting dealt a further blow to the Trump-Kim bromance.

On the one hand, Trump wanted a “big deal” without making concessions. On the other, Kim was unwilling to take any steps toward denuclearization without the lifting of certain sanctions.

Although the two met one last time at the inter-Korean border in June 2019, all Kim was left with was nice photos but no tangible progress in diplomacy. Ultimately, disagreements on the nuclear issue led to Kim’s relationship with the U.S. leader fizzling out in the latter half of Trump’s presidency.

Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un meet in Vietnam in Feb. 2019 | Image: The White House

AN ALLIANCE RENEWED

As for Kim Jong Un’s relationship with Putin, the two held their first summit in April 2019, just two months after the collapse of the Hanoi summit with Trump. This first meeting produced few results and the COVID-19 pandemic hindered closer diplomatic cooperation, but Kim’s relations with Putin grew stronger after North Korea pledged support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.

Kim’s ties with Putin were boosted further in Sept. 2023 when the North Korean leader visited Russia’s Far East. Things went differently this time around, with the international community forced to take notice as the two leaders discussed space cooperation and military affairs. The relationship between Kim and Putin has only grown stronger since then, with evidence emerging of North Korea supplying Russia with weapons for use in Ukraine.

Besides turning a profit, Kim Jong Un’s relations with the Russian leader have also helped strengthen North Korea’s position internationally. Particularly, Russia’s veto of the U.N. Panel of Experts in March has left the international sanctions regime against the DPRK practically dead.

More importantly, however, is that Putin has helped Kim significantly boost Pyongyang’s leverage over Washington by renewing their mutual defense commitment last month. Article 4 of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, signed by the leaders in Pyongyang, clearly states that the sides “shall immediately provide military and other assistance by all means available” in case of an attack.

This reinstates a mutual defense clause which was part of the original 1961 friendship treaty with the Soviet Union but was later excluded from the next version of the agreement signed in 2000. With the new agreement, Kim stated that Russia-DPRK ties have now reached the level of an alliance.

While Kim may have failed to get a security guarantee from Trump, his new treaty with Putin could be the next best thing as it significantly raises the costs of a potential U.S. attack against North Korea.

Putin and Kim drove around the grounds of the Kumsusan Guesthouse in a new Aurus sedan gifted by the Russian leader | Images: Rodong Sinmun (June 20, 2024)

STRATEGIC DECISIONS

Although it remains to be seen who the new U.S. president will be, Donald Trump has a fair chance of getting a second term. But even if Trump returns to the Oval Office, this does not necessarily mean he will pick up where he left off with the North Korean leader.

In reality, Kim is unlikely to want to engage Trump unless the U.S. president presents a new North Korea strategy focused on arms control and give-and-take measures, instead of the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization (CVID) he demanded in his first term.

If Trump adopts a new policy along these lines, Kim may be open to rekindling their once-close ties.

Arms control talks could lead to resumed U.S.-DPRK diplomacy and possibly even an agreement of some kind, but it remains unclear whether Trump would be willing or even able to overhaul decades of U.S. policy effectively. While the former president insists he won’t let North Korea keep its nukes if reelected, he has reportedly indicated otherwise behind closed doors.

Given these uncertainties, Kim is unlikely to dive head-first into another attempt at befriending Trump.

On the other hand, Kim’s relationship with Putin seems more stable and reliable. By sticking with Putin, Kim can reap economic gains, international support, possible transfers of advanced military technologies or other forms of military assistance, and lower his country’s dependence on China in some areas, such as energy.

The main risk of sticking with Putin would be the temporary nature of such benefits, as Moscow’s need for cooperation with Pyongyang may diminish significantly if the war in Ukraine ends. Nevertheless, the mutual defense pact binds the two leaders together in an incomparably stronger way than anything Kim ever had with Trump.

North Korea’s big picture goal remains to improve ties with Washington and obtain security guarantees, in particular through an agreement for U.S. forces to leave South Korea.

But Kim knows this remains unlikely and that he currently enjoys a strong position with Putin’s firm backing. The North Korean leader will not easily discard this in favor of an uncertain and risky attempt to rekindle an old flame with Trump.

4. After a lull, South Korea is suddenly talking about going nuclear again

Again they must answer the basic questions:

What deters Kim Jong Un?

Will nuclear weapons in South Korea (either the ROK's or US') actually deter KJU?

What is the South Korean concept for employment of nuclear weapons?

Is the ROK prepared to deal with the anti-nuclear protests that will be supported by north Korean subversion organizations and make the anti-THAAD protest pale in comparison?

And then there is the question of where the ROK obtains the fissile material since there is no reprocessing capability in the ROK.

What happens to the ROK nuclear power generation capabilities (24 nuclear power plants) if the ROK is cut off if it obtains fissile material for weapons illicitly? The ROK economy could take a real hit if 34% of its power generation capacity is impacted because it has chosen to procure nuclear weapons.

After a lull, South Korea is suddenly talking about going nuclear again

Leading conservatives are endorsing nukes to defend against North Korea, reginiting debate about reliance on US military

https://www.nknews.org/2024/07/after-a-lull-south-korea-is-suddenly-talking-about-going-nuclear-again/

Jeongmin Kim July 5, 2024

Twin cooling towers of the Rancho SECO Nuclear Plant (background) and (from left to right) Won Hee-ryong, Na Kyung-won, Han Dong-hoon from left to right | Images: U.S. Department of Energy (background), People Power Party, Na Kyung-won's Facebook

Seventy-one years to the day since North Korea invaded the South, one of the ROK’s highest-profile politicians declared that Seoul should go nuclear — and kicked a hornets’ nest that shows no signs of dying down.

“It’s the June 25 anniversary today,” Na Kyung-won, a frontrunner to lead the conservative People Power Party (PPP), wrote on Facebook last week. “Now we have to arm ourselves with nuclear weapons too.”

The ruling party lawmaker’s sudden endorsement of a fundamental shift in how South Korea should deter North Korea came just days after a U.S. aircraft carrier visited the peninsula, in what was supposed to be the latest demonstration of Washington’s commitment to Seoul’s defense.

But despite the attempt to assuage South Koreans’ security fears, several other members of the PPP quickly rallied behind Na’s position, reigniting a debate about nuclear weapons that had largely faded into the background since the allies sought to nip the issue in the bud last year.

A poll released days later only added fuel to the fire, finding for the first time that more South Koreans prefer an indigenous nuclear deterrent to relying on permanently stationed U.S. military forces for defense.

These developments have already raised fears across the region and in Washington about South Korea’s growing appetite for nuclear weapons, as the ROK public confronts global insecurity, the DPRK’s headlong development of weapons of mass destruction and the looming possibility of alliance-skeptic Donald Trump returning to power.

“While it’s still just a few mainstream ROK politicians, they are making use of the public’s concerns for domestic politics … now going as far as talking about pursuing nukes at the risk of international condemnation and torpedoing the U.S.-ROK alliance,” Choi Gi-il, a professor at Sangji University’s national security division, told NK News.

High-profile PPP politicians’ remarks on nuclear armament on June 25-26, 2024 | Images: Won Hee-ryong, Hong Jun-pyo, Na Kyung-won’s Facebook Pages, edited by NK News

CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT

Talk about the possibility of South Korea going nuclear has picked up in recent years, even leading President Yoon Suk-yeol to controversially assert that Seoul could quickly acquire its own nukes if DPRK threats increase.

Partly in response to this discourse, the leaders of the U.S. and South Korea signed the Washington Declaration last spring, under which Seoul reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear nonproliferation in return for security assurances. Specifically, the two sides agreed to set up the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) to discuss how the U.S. will use its strategic nuclear arsenal to deter North Korea and defend the ROK.

The declaration appeared to achieve its objective, dampening talk of ROK nukes, but only for a short while.

Na announced her endorsement of nuclear armament in the context of the PPP’s ongoing leadership race, a contest that has seen factions debate how much to align with the president while accusing each other of being weak on security.

In a follow-up post, she proposed “three principles” for nuclear armament: first, to persuade Washington to approve; second, to use nukes to draw North Korea to arms control talks, rather than owning them permanently; and third, to pursue the project immediately.

She vowed to work with the Yoon administration to make this the official party line if elected as PPP leader.

Following Na’s initial post on June 25, Yoon’s former justice minister Han Dong-hoon raised concerns about immediately going nuclear — noting South Korea could face international sanctions — but agreed that it should be a long-term objective.

“The international situation can change, and there’s a limitation to depending solely on our ally. It’s necessary to build potential capabilities, like Japan, so we can arm ourselves with nuclear weapons if and when we want,” Han reportedly told journalists.

Won Hee-ryong, a frontrunner in the PPP leadership race who is strongly pro-Yoon, took a less radical stance.

“I understand the desire for nuclear armament due to the strengthening Russia-North Korea military ties, but independent nuclear armament cannot be done with just words,” he wrote on Facebook, calling for more efforts to strengthen security under the Washington Declaration before considering nuclear arms.

Hong Jun-pyo, the PPP-affiliated mayor of Daegu and former presidential hopeful, openly endorsed Na’s position.

“The only resolution to the DPRK nuclear dilemma is inter-Korean nuclear balance to prevent tragedies like the Korean War,” he wrote. “Do you think the U.S. will protect Seoul at the risk of making New York a sea of fire?”

Hong emphasized that Article 10 of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which North Korea withdrew from in 2003 but South Korea remains a party to, “allows members to leave for the sake of self-defense.”

Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un before the Russian president’s departure at Sunan International Airport on June 19, 2024 | Image: Rodong Sinmun (June 20, 2024)

DOMESTIC OPPOSITION

Since Na’s statement, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) has slammed conservatives for their willingness to entertain nuclear armament, accusing the PPP of being “childish” and “irresponsible.”

Jung Chung-rae, a high-profile DP lawmaker, said the NPT is an “unfair treaty” but that South Korea would either have to leave or develop nuclear weapons behind Washington’s back, emphasizing that Seoul has no choice but to operate within the framework of the U.S.-ROK alliance.

“Can you really cope with the immediate economic sanctions that will come after Washington discovers we are trying to make nukes? Are you guys arguing for an anti-U.S. campaign?”

Despite these objections, the nuclear armament issue has already made a resurgence in parliament.

On Wednesday, PPP lawmaker Yoo Yong-won proposed a new bill to amend the country’s Atomic Energy Promotion Act, focusing on creating legal provisions for the ROK to develop nuclear reprocessing technology that could help it develop WMDs if necessary.

“We hope that South Korea, like Japan, will secure nuclear armament potential by ensuring technologies for uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel reprocessing,” he said, asserting that Tokyo has this potential because of its right to reprocess spent nuclear fuel.

Choi Gi-il of Sangji University told NK News that conservatives’ endorsement of nuclear weapons could damage relations with Washington, especially given that the U.S. has pushed to increase joint exercises and more openly deploy nuclear-capable assets to the peninsula in the last year.

“Backtracking just a year after creating the Nuclear Consultative Group could pose a serious strain on the U.S.-ROK alliance,” he said.

He said PPP lawmakers who have endorsed nukes have likely made a political calculation, angling for the support of older conservative voters with an eye on the next presidential election.

But he raised concerns that the PPP leaders are giving little attention to the ramifications of going nuclear, including a possible domino effect in the region that could drive more countries to pursue WMDs and even lead Russia and China to further bolster ties with the DPRK.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol shakes hands with U.S. counterpart Joe Biden at the White House on April 26, 2023. | Image: Office of the President of South Korea

PUBLIC OPINION

The sudden surge in nuclear armament came as an annual survey by the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) found that a plurality of South Koreans now support acquiring nuclear weapons, the first such result since the think tank began conducting the poll a decade ago.

The poll asked respondents to choose between relying for defense on a permanent U.S. military presence or independent nuclear weapons, with 44.5% choosing nukes compared to 40% for U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).

By contrast, last year’s poll found just 33.5% support for nuclear weapons and 50% support for USFK.

Interestingly, voters affiliated with the PPP and DP still expressed a preference for USFK, while swing voters showed the greatest support for nukes at 52%.

Even so, when not forced to choose between the two options, respondents overwhelmingly endorsed the U.S. military presence, with 90% stating the alliance is necessary and over 85% saying South Korea needs American soldiers on the peninsula.

KINU 2024 survey results | Image: Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU)

With no clear trigger for the sudden shift in public opinion, even the authors of the survey are scratching their heads about the causes.

“There is no hypothesis that explains this perfectly,” said Lee Sang-sin, the lead author of the survey.

Lee raised three potential reasons for the change, the first being the increasing likelihood that Donald Trump will be reelected.

“The majority of respondents predicted that Trump’s election will deteriorate U.S.-ROK relations,” the KINU survey’s executive summary states.

A second explanation is that geopolitical crises like Russia’s war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza and U.S.-China competition are contributing to feelings of insecurity.

Last but not least, the Washington Declaration and the NCG may have backfired, Lee said.

“While the U.S.-ROK closely cooperated on deterrence in the past year, that may not have led to visible enough results that the general public can perceive, leaving them feeling relatively dissatisfied after hopes were raised,” he said.

Regardless of what drove the shift in public opinion, South Korean leaders could now cite it to justify their push for nuclear arms as geopolitical uncertainties grow.

“For Korean Peninsula peace, ROK nuclear armament is a must, not an option,” Na said at a National Assembly seminar on Monday. “We cannot defend our security just depending on the goodwill of America.”

Joon Ha Park contributed to this report. Edited by Bryan Betts

5. Police endorse charges for man who said ROK should accept North Korean invasion

Another indication of north Korean active subversion in South Korea.

Police endorse charges for man who said ROK should accept North Korean invasion

Activist allegedly violated National Security Act by making pro-DPRK statement and contacting anti-state group

https://www.nknews.org/2024/07/police-endorse-charges-for-man-who-said-rok-should-accept-north-korean-invasion/

Ifang Bremer July 5, 2024

Two police officers patrolling Seoul station | Image: Seoul Metropolitan Police

South Korean police have recommended prosecutors charge an activist for making pro-North Korean statements and contacting a pro-DPRK organization in Japan, after he reportedly said Seoul should acquiesce if Pyongyang starts a war to unify the peninsula.

The police’s referral of Kim Gwang-soo’s case to prosecutors comes as the U.S. has warned that South Korea’s crackdown on activists for violating the National Security Act (NSA) limits freedom of speech and expression.

The NSA is a Cold War-era law that stipulates punishments for supporting or praising North Korea. The law bans the spreading of North Korean content and also blocks access to DPRK websites from South Korea.

Kim, who heads a small nonprofit organization in the southern port city of Busan, posted a notice from police on his social media that his case has been sent to the Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office for violating the NSA.

Prosecutors will now review the case and decide whether to charge him and take it to trial.

Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency’s Security Investigation Division did not want to clarify potential charges to NK News but referred to reports that Kim backed North Korea’s view of war during a meeting organized by ex-member of parliament Yoon Mi-hyang last year.

At the meeting, Kim reportedly said that if the North Korean regime starts a “war for unification” and if that war can bring peace eventually, South Korea should “accept” it.

Kim reportedly also emailed a pro-North Korean organization in Japan that has been designated as an anti-state group by ROK authorities. Under South Korean law, it is illegal for ROK citizens to contact such groups without authorization.

In a statement posted on social media, Kim denounced the NSA as “barbaric.”

“Can a state that suppresses the freedom of thought and ideology through the National Security Act, while defending balloons sent to North Korea by defectors as freedom of expression, really be considered a normal state?” the activist wrote.

The Yoon Suk-yeol administration has refrained from intervening to stop activists’ anti-regime leafleting on the grounds of protecting freedom of speech, and the ruling People Power Party has defended the launches as “symbol of freedom of expression in a mature democratic country,” stating that “they contain the heart of protecting liberal democracy.”

Meanwhile, the Yoon government has “declared war” on pro-DPRK groups in the ROK, investigating and sentencing numerous activists on charges of praising North Korea and, in some instances, on charges of espionage.

Earlier this year, the U.S. State Department assessed that other restrictions imposed by the NSA limit freedom of speech and expression in South Korea.

In particular, Article 7 of the NSA allows the South Korean government to investigate anyone suspected of sympathizing with the “enemy” North Korean state. Amnesty International and other human rights organizations have voiced concerns that the vague wording in the paragraph allows for abuse of government power, curtails freedom of expression and represses dissenting voices.

The constitutionality of the article has been challenged legally since 1991 but has consistently been upheld by the country’s Constitutional Court.

“The law poses a severe limit to freedom of speech,” Kyung-sin Park, a law professor at Korea University, previously told NK News, arguing that punishment for speech should “be limited to speech presenting a clear danger of causing substantial harm.”

Joon Ha Park contributed reporting to this article. Edited by Alannah Hill

6. FM highlights importance of 'mutually considerate' attitude in bilateral ties with Japan

FM highlights importance of 'mutually considerate' attitude in bilateral ties with Japan | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · July 5, 2024

SEOUL, July 5 (Yonhap) -- Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul stressed the importance of a mutually considerate attitude in bilateral ties with Japan as he met with the country's new ambassador to South Korea, Koichi Mizushima, on Friday, Cho's office said.

In their meeting, Cho said the two countries should wisely manage pending issues by putting themselves in each other's shoes to bolster the positive flow in bilateral ties as Seoul and Tokyo are set to mark the 60th anniversary of normalizing their ties next year, according to the foreign ministry.

Mizushima agreed on the importance of smoothly managing pending issues based on mutual understanding and expressed hope that the two countries will continue to closely communicate based on trust between their leaders and foreign ministers.

Both sides assessed that South Korea, the United States and Japan are closely cooperating in the face of deepening ties between North Korea and Russia, the ministry said. They also concurred on the importance of sustaining such cooperation on various occasions, such as multilateral talks.

Relations between the two neighboring countries have significantly improved since President Yoon Suk Yeol took office in May 2022. The conservative administration has emphasized the importance of cooperation for the benefit of future generations.

Mizushima arrived in Seoul in May to replace outgoing envoy, Koichi Aiboshi.

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul (R) and Japanese Ambassador to South Korea Koichi Mizushima shake hands during their meeting in Seoul on July 5, 2024, in this photo provided by Cho's office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · July 5, 2024

7. N. Korean officials shake down illegal profiteers for bribes

Multiple levels of corruption in the north.

N. Korean officials shake down illegal profiteers for bribes - Daily NK English

In one case in North Hamgyong Province, people speculate that officials were more interested in extorting money from a businessman than in actually punishing him

By Han Jae-deok - July 5, 2024

dailynk.com · by Han Jae-deok · July 5, 2024

A picture of Onsong County, North Hamgyong Province, taken in February 2018. (Daily NK)

North Korean law enforcement agents are shaking down individuals profiting from illegal activities, Daily NK has learned.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Monday that inspectors with the prosecutors’ office in Kyongwon County were looking into a neighborhood watch unit in mid-June. While the inspectors were nominally checking all the unit’s families, they actually focused their inquiries into the family of a forty-something man surnamed Kim (a pseudonym), a driver for a coal mining company. That led the neighbors to surmise the inspectors were deliberately targeting Kim.

“It was understood that Kim was earning money by doing business in Rason and the other areas he visited, but nobody knew for sure what kind of business he was doing. Whenever he would return from one of his business trips, which typically lasted for a week or two, his car would be full of rice, meat, or used clothing and other everyday items,” the source explained.

The inspectors decided to target Kim because they found it suspicious that his family always had ample food and goods when everyone else was struggling. Given the likelihood that Kim had used his government-provided vehicle to engage in illegal dealings, most neighbors expected he would be punished.

A curious turn of events

But contrary to those expectations, the inspectors did not find any issues, and Kim resumed his everyday life without being punished, as if nothing had happened.

“On the second day of the inspection, the team of inspectors was treated to a sumptuous meal at Kim’s house and remained there until late in the afternoon. People are whispering that the inspectors had never meant to prosecute Kim but had launched their inspection as a way to shake him down for money – and that’s apparently how things actually went down,” the source said.

Neighbors have noticed that since the inspection, Kim’s wife has been unusually attentive to a sixty-something woman surnamed Cho (a pseudonym) who lives next door, dropping by Cho’s house everyday with something to eat.

That has led neighbors to suspect Cho was the one who tipped off the authorities. The neighbors have reason to think that Kim’s wife is taking such good care of Cho because the inspectors let the family know she was the informant.

“Cho was furious because she’d gotten caught making moonshine a few months back and all her booze and bootlegging equipment were confiscated. It’s likely she told the authorities about her prosperous neighbors out of jealousy. Regardless, the neighbors think it’s wise [of the Kim family] to butter up the informant instead of picking a fight with her,” the source said.

Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons.

Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Han Jae-deok · July 5, 2024

8. N. Korean women's union promotes superiority of socialist system

I support the women's union by using the old adage of "I used to feel sorry for myself because I had no shoes until I met a person who had no feet."

They are telling the Korean people in the north that even though they have no shoes they are better off than the people in Africa and the MIddle East who proverbially have no feet.

N. Korean women's union promotes superiority of socialist system - Daily NK English

Lectures focused on poor living standards, starvation, and disease in African and Middle Eastern countries while asserting that life in socialist countries like North Korea improves daily

By Jeong Seo-yeong - July 5, 2024

dailynk.com · by Jeong Seo-yeong · July 5, 2024

A meeting of women's union members was held in April, as reported by state-run media. (Rodong Sinmun-News1)

The North Korean Socialist Women’s Union of Korea recently held lectures highlighting the supposed superiority of their socialist system, contrasting it with hardships in the Middle East and Africa.

On June 21, a source in North Pyongan Province reported that the union’s central committee had mandated these lectures across all provincial chapters in early June. The North Pyongan Province chapter complied on June 12, focusing on poor living standards, starvation, and disease in African and Middle Eastern countries while asserting that life in socialist countries like North Korea improves daily.

“Most North Koreans have no real concept of life in the Middle East or Africa,” the source explained, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Many union members were intrigued by these stories about other countries.”

The lecture described refugees fleeing their homelands for Europe, often waiting in camps for smugglers’ boats, with many dying from accidents or disease en route. While union members were captivated by this information, they carefully avoided asking probing questions about why these people are considered refugees or if they are labeled traitors for leaving.

Lecturers also praised North Korea’s socialist system, citing the Workers’ Party’s ability to mobilize the army for disaster response and claiming that, unlike in Japan or South Korea, elderly North Koreans do not die in isolation. They attributed these supposed benefits to Kim Jong Un’s leadership.

“North Koreans aren’t left unclothed or hungry. We live peacefully in newly-built houses comparable to royal palaces,” the lecturers claimed. “Comparing our circumstances to other countries shows socialism’s superiority. We must be more grateful to Comrade Kim Jong Un, the Party, and our country.”

Following the lecture, union members were asked to discuss their gratitude for living under a “people-first” socialist regime and submit written reflections.

The source added that similar programs will continue throughout June to foster appreciation for Kim Jong Un’s leadership and to counter regime critics by highlighting difficulties in the outside world.

Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons. For more information about Daily NK’s network of reporting partners and information-gathering activities, please visit our FAQ page here.

Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Jeong Seo-yeong · July 5, 2024

9. N. Korea to import equipment for hydropower plants

I received a number of press queries about north Korea changing from Chinese to Russian satellite for television and asking whether north Korea is moving away from Russia. Here is an indicator that it may not.

N. Korea to import equipment for hydropower plants - Daily NK English

An import contract acquired by Daily NK shows that the deal is worth RMB 6.78 million, close to USD 1 million

By Seon Hwa - July 5, 2024

dailynk.com · by Seon Hwa · July 5, 2024

Part of an import contract acquired by Daily NK for power generating equipment between the China-North Korea Hydroelectric Power Company and a Chinese exporter. (©Daily NK)

North Korea plans to import large amounts of equipment needed for hydroelectric power plants established as a joint venture with China. North Korea and China appear to be continuing the joint venture even though such ventures are prohibited by the U.N. Security Council’s sanctions against the North.

A contract between a North Korean electricity trading company and an exporter in China’s Fujian Province that was recently acquired by Daily NK indicates that it was concluded at the request of the China-North Korea Hydroelectric Power Company.

The China-North Korea Hydroelectric Power Company, established in 1995 as a joint venture between the two countries, operates four hydroelectric plants called Taepyongman, Supung, Wiwon, and Unbong on the Yalu River. The contract states that it was concluded in May and that the ordered equipment is supposed to be delivered by Aug. 30.

The items that the China-North Korea Hydroelectric Power Company has arranged to be imported from China are 220-kilovolt breakers and insulated switches, insulated bushings for 110-kilovolt transformers, fiberglass, and fiberglass tape.

The import contract is worth RMB 6.78 million, or around USD 932,445. The contract stipulates that payment should be made in installments within five months of delivery.

The ordered items are supposed to be delivered to Nampo Port in North Korea in the “delivered at place” method, which means that all delivery costs will be covered by the Chinese exporter.

However, joint ventures with North Korea are prohibited by international sanctions. In Resolutions 2371 and 2375, among others, the U.N. Security Council banned the establishment, maintenance and operation of joint ventures or cooperative ventures with North Korean organizations or individuals.

Nonetheless, the contract obtained by Daily NK confirms that the company continues to operate as a joint venture between North Korea and China.

China and North Korea each receive half of the electricity generated by the China-North Korea Hydroelectric Power Company’s four hydroelectric power stations, which were jointly built by the two countries. North Korea then sells some of the generated electricity back to China to earn more foreign currency, while supplying the remainder to military facilities and munitions factories inside the country.

Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons.

Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Seon Hwa · July 5, 2024

10. Deepening Russia-North Korea ties test US-South Korea deterrence strategy

Deepening Russia-North Korea ties test US-South Korea deterrence strategy

July 01, 2024 8:59 PM

By Young Gyo Kim

voanews.com · July 1, 2024

washington —

The United States’ commitment to providing extended deterrence to South Korea is being put to the test, with some South Korean politicians publicly questioning the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear umbrella after Russia and North Korea reached a new defense pact.

Debate over the U.S. extended deterrence was sparked by Representative Na Kyung Won, a five-term lawmaker of South Korea’s ruling People Power Party, who is running for the party leadership.

“The deterrence under the solid South Korea-U.S. alliance is currently working, but it does not guarantee the capacity to respond to the future changes in the security environment,” Na said in a social media post last week.

“The international situation, such as cooperation between North Korea and Russia, is adding uncertainty to the security of South Korea,” she added, referring to the stronger military ties between Russia and North Korea, bolstered by the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty signed by Russia’s President Vladmir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang last month.

The new treaty mandates Russia and North Korea to immediately assist each other militarily if either of them is attacked by a third country. The prospect of quasi-automatic Russian involvement in any future war between the two Koreas is now causing alarm in Seoul.

Putin’s diplomacy with North Korea deepens the global risk in Ukraine - Breaking Defense

In this op-ed, Robbin Laird and Harald Malmgren discuss what Putin's diplomacy with North Korea can mean for the war in Ukraine.

breakingdefense.com · by Robbin Laird, Harald Malmgren · July 3, 2024

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un walk during a farewell ceremony upon Putin’s departure at the Sunan International Airport in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024. Editor’s note : this image is distributed by the Russian state owned agency Sputnik — (Photo by VLADIMIR SMIRNOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Putin seized Crimea in 2014 and then sent in troops in a shock-and-show-up invasion in 2022. His miscalculation was significant; Ukrainians rallied to push his troops back, leaving the two sides mired in a conflict two and a half years later, with no clear end in sight.

As the conflict has continued, a war of attrition has set in which is not one that favors Ukraine, because of population disparities, geography, and supplies of weapons. Those supplies come from Western allies funneled into Ukraine, whereas the Russian territory provides sanctuary for the building, importing and transit of arms to the field.

Much of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s time is spent building alliance support, and just as on the battlefield, Russia is seeing what Ukraine is doing and taking lessons to bolster its own position. The emergence of a multi-polar authoritarian state and movement over the past 15 years has enabled Russian President Vladimir Putin to craft a diplomatic and military support policy which has ensured that Moscow has not been isolated by the sanctions imposed by the West.

In fact, much of the so-called “Global South” has supported him or at least not sided against him. His trip to the Middle East last year and his most recent trip to Asia have been part of his diplomatic offensive to broaden his global support and sharpen the confrontation between the West and the rest of the world, which is one of the shared objectives of the various authoritarian powers and movements.

The most recent trip yielded a new public relationship between North Korea and Russia. For some time, Russia has received weaponry from North Korea, but that has always felt transactional. Putin and North Korean strongman Kim Jong Un seem to be now entering a more serious part of their relationship, announcing on June 19 a mutual defense support agreement to share arms and other military support “in case either face any aggression.”

More eye-opening is that following this announcement, reports surfaced that North Korea might send troops to support Russia in its Ukrainian operations. The reports suggested that engineering units would be sent to the disputed territories — but “engineering units” can cover a multitude of sins. These troops might be used for basic reconstruction purposes, of course, but they could also be used for installation and use of new North Korean battlefield weapons that would otherwise require lengthy training of Russian users. It’s not hard to imagine Kim, hard up for every resource but bodies, happy to throw his forces into the line of fire as a favor to his new friend Putin.

These reports remain unconfirmed. But a renewed alliance and military support being provided to Russia by North Korea must be seen as a significant development. It is already acknowledged that China is providing military assistance to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, as is Iran.

Embracing North Korea, a global pariah, is yet another part of Putin’s push demonstrate that Russia is indeed supported by other authoritarian powers who have same or similar objectives. This means that any United States led-alliance effort to isolate Putin and defeat him in Ukraine has become much more complicated.

Putin has made it clear that he intends to hold on to certain Ukrainian provinces and has allied support (his allies) for this position. Can Ukraine and its allies realistically dislodge him from those provinces?

The engagement of North Korea publicly raises the stakes as Pacific liberal democracies have their interests directly affected by the war in Ukraine, and the Putin visit reminds those who may have forgotten that the United States and its allies face three nuclear powers in the Pacific, with two now directly collaborating against the US in the Ukraine.

So what is a US diplomatic policy towards Russia that makes sense with the prospect of a divided Ukraine and growing ties among the diverse authoritarian states and movements opposed to the Western order? What military policy makes sense given the diversity and disaggregation of threats to the Western order?

The Ukraine conflict is now part of a mix of challenges in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. And that means the White House, no matter the occupant come January, has to consider that any action in the Pacific or Europe could reverberate across another theater, or even down to Africa and Latin America.

For the United States, the Russian challenge is now part of a wider challenge from authoritarian powers. There are no easy answers, only realistic acknowledgement of the threat at hand.

Robbin Laird is an analyst, author and frequent contributor to Breaking Defense. Harald Bernard Malmgren is a scholar, ambassador, and international negotiator who has been senior aide to US Presidents John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Gerald Ford, and to US Senators Abraham A. Ribicoff and Russell B. Long, United States Senate Committee on Finance. He has acted as an advisor to many foreign leaders and CEOs of financial institutions and corporate businesses and has been a frequent author of articles and papers on global economic, political, and security affairs.

Malmgren will be 89 this month and Laird is publishing a book of essays honoring Malmgren later this year, entitled “Assessing Global Change: Strategic Perspectives of Dr. Harald Malmgren.”

breakingdefense.com · by Robbin Laird, Harald Malmgren · July 3, 2024

13. Podcast: John Linton: Why Korean reunification could happen tomorrow

A 40 minute podcast. Many of us have long known John for his work in north Korea to help eradicate TB. We were often fortunate enough to see his slideshows and hear his lectures after he returned from his many trips (some 29) to the north.

John is a huge supporter of engagement and the Sunshine Policy. He makes a lot of important points including that it is north Korea that is denying aid.

But the point I am in extreme agreement with is that unification could happen at any time and it is imperative that the ROK government and the people prepare for it now.

Listne to the Podcast at this link.

https://www.nknews.org/category/north-korea-news-podcast/latest/john-linton-why-korean-reunification-could-happen-tomorrow/944939/

Image: People's Power Party YouTube

John Linton: Why Korean reunification could happen tomorrow

The doctor and lawmaker discusses his past humanitarian work in North Korea and his hopes for inter-Korean relations

40:44

40:57

04 Jul 2024 Last updated at 14:44

John Linton, also known by his Korean name Ihn Yo-han, first visited North Korea with his mother as part of efforts to eradicate tuberculosis in the country. He has since visited the DPRK almost 30 times for various humanitarian aid projects, and hopes to again step foot in the country in his new role as a lawmaker of South Korea’s National Assembly.

Linton joins the podcast to discuss the current slump in inter-Korean relations, which he says have been on the decline since long before the current administration. He also discusses what reunification could mean for the peninsula in terms of national resources and transport links, as well as how it could provide opportunities for young South Koreans.

Dr. John Linton was born to American parents in Suncheon, South Jeolla Province and is now a naturalized Korean citizen. A medical doctor, he served as director of the International Health Care Center at Severance Hospital until recently. He is now a lawmaker in South Korea’s National Assembly as a member of the conservative People Power Party.

Editor’s note: Since the recording of this podcast, Linton has been assigned as a member of the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee.

About the podcast: The North Korea News Podcast is a weekly podcast hosted by Jacco Zwetsloot (@JaccoZed) exclusively for NK News, covering all things DPRK — from news to extended interviews with leading experts and analysts in the field, along with insight from our very own journalists.

HUMAN SECURITY / HUMAN RIGHTS

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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