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Thankfully, inventory in Central Oregon continues to climb, with 649 single-family homes listed this morning in Deschutes County. Homes listed in Crook County were up by two to 117, and Jefferson County was flat at sixty-four. Conversely, the median price reduction for pending sales remains low, with Deschutes County at -3.82%, Crook at -3.74%, and Jefferson at -2.74%. Due to the smaller number of transactions, median days for pending properties change significantly in Crook and Jefferson County, making the metric less meaningful. However, in Deschutes County, where there were seventy-five pending sales last week, the days listed before securing a contract dropped to twelve. This solid activity sits against 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 6.69%.
Deschutes County Properties
Market analysts and investors may be sharpening their pencils when looking at properties at today's financing rates, but most buyers focus on monthly payments. Similar mortgage rates slowed sales significantly in late 2022 and early 2023, while today, activity is robust. What changed? Likely there are several contributing factors:
- Seasonality significantly impacts sales volume from now through the end of summer, with new residents looking to make Central Oregon home.
- Many buyers assume that peak mortgage rates are behind us or at least not climbing further.
- If buyers can afford today's payment, there is every reason to believe that future costs can be reduced with a refinance when rates decline.
Many buyers have grown accustomed to where rates are today and do not want to wait any longer.
Crook County Properties
I regularly speak with people concerned about the economy, which has been flashing signs of recession for several months. However, even if we are in a recession today, that does not necessarily mean housing prices in Central Oregon will decline. For example, a handful of analysts I followed late last year predicted a flat 2023 and a decline in 2024. While there is no doubt sales volume is down, constrained supply is partly to blame. However, today's strong sales, firm (and rising) prices, and forecasted population growth are propelling this season beyond predictions. Therefore, with limited supply and the other factors I mentioned, I do not expect a housing downturn in 2024. Yes, another prediction! Candidly, even a casual observer can see the growth and real estate trends in Central Oregon.
Jefferson County Properties
It is no secret that many new residents coming to Central Oregon are leaving metropolitan west coast cities. In addition, work-from-home opportunities have opened up the possibility of living where many used to vacation. While there is no shortage of mountain towns, Central Oregon is unique. Our winters are far milder than many smaller, higher-elevation towns; we have an excellent regional airport and are in close driving proximity to Portland, Seattle, or even northern California. As you get deeper into the Inter-Mountain West, many of Central Oregon's attributes do not apply. Housing is always susceptible to price swings, as we saw in the second half of last year. Although, over the long haul, very few assets consistently perform as well as homes in desirable areas.
Deschutes County over $2M
Lately, I have gotten marketing material praising the benefits of using artificial intelligence for everything from writing property descriptions to social media posts. While I have no doubt AI will play a more significant role in everything we do (whether we like it or not!) I assure you my reports will always be written and researched by me—every Wednesday morning. The idea that I would use AI to describe a home or write about market conditions sounds outlandish. However, we all see how homogenized most marketing campaigns are, and I expect that trend to continue with AI. Researching the market, staying current on the economy, and growing my list of trusted lenders, home inspectors, and other resources is a job I take seriously. You will not get cookie-cutter service from me! On that note, before the end of the week, property detail pages on my website will now include taxes and HOA fees! The tax and HOA information are below the property descriptions, mortgage calculator, schools, and property walk score—coming soon!
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