Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ‘my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.’”

– Isaac Asimov

“I define manhood simply; men should be tough, fair, and courageous, never petty, never looking for a

fight, but never backing down from one.”

– John Wayne

“Compulsive liars shouldn't frighten you. They can harm no one if no one listens to them. Compulsive believers, on the other hand: they should terrify you. Believers are the liars enablers.”

– Nick Cohen

1. South Koreans fire warning shots after North Korean troops cross poorly demarcated border

2. N. Korea's Kim hopes to continue to develop 'meaningful, close' ties with Putin

3. Let’s unpack some questions about Russia’s role in North Korea’s rocket program

4. DPRK (North Korea): Open Briefing on the Human Rights Situation : What's In Blue : Security Council Report

5. Yoon denounces N. Korea's nuclear development as threat to nonproliferation regime

6. Editorial: Seoul should pursue nuclear capabilities as US reassesses strategy

7. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Army removes 'unification' phrase with paint, even removing 'sacred words' of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il, confusing many people

8. 'US ready for anything' amid North Korean threats: Ambassador Goldberg

9. What to make of ‘milestone’ US-ROK nuke guidelines on deterring North Korea

10. Pyongyang airport terminal cleared of planes in sign of prep for Putin visit

11. What to make of ‘milestone’ US-ROK nuke guidelines on deterring North Korea

12. New Korean flare-up carries greater air of menace

13. Oil Prospect Found by Tiny Firm Spurs Hope, Doubt in Korea

1. South Koreans fire warning shots after North Korean troops cross poorly demarcated border

A more balanced and sober report here without the sensationalism of some who think we are on the verge of war because shots were fired in the DMZ.

This is the most likely explanation for this recent event. Simple land navigation error by the patrol leader.

And we should not be lulled into complacency because the DMZ is almost a nature preserve.

Excerpts:

“It is quite tranquil and full of nature — there are lots of deer and wild boar — it is almost a shame that people try to kill each other in there,” said Chun In-bum, a retired general who, as a junior officer, led patrols inside the DMZ. “It is quite peaceful, but underneath all of that are a lot of landmines and a lot of North Koreans.”

...

One risk is straying off patrol routes and into mined areas. Another is unintentionally crossing the MDL, originally demarcated by 1,292 yellow metal signs, with English and Korean writing on the southern-facing side, and Chinese and Korean on the northern-facing side.

“Each side had responsibility for making repairs, per the armistice, but in the early ’70s, the North Koreans quit repairing the ones they were responsible for and started shooting at our teams,” said Steve Tharp, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who today guides tours south of the DMZ.

An unpublished study by the U.N. Command Military Armistice Commission a decade ago found that 95% of the line of markers had been reclaimed by nature and no longer exist, Mr. Tharp said, and there is no way to reinstall the line of markers without agreement from both sides.

South Koreans fire warning shots after North Korean troops cross poorly demarcated border

Amid tensions, brush-clearing North Korean patrol may have missed overgrown frontier markers

washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon

By - The Washington Times - Tuesday, June 11, 2024

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korean forces fired live warning shots inside the Demilitarized Zone after a North Korean patrol earlier this week crossed the poorly defined, heavily mined border that bisects the divided peninsula. While no casualties were reported, the incident earlier this week highlights rising tensions between the two hostile states.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs revealed Tuesday that some 20 North Korean soldiers on Sunday crossed the poorly delineated “military demarcation line” (MDL), the actual frontier inside the 2.5-mile-wide DMZ. After South Korean troops broadcast loudspeaker warnings and fired warning shots, the force retreated back into the northern half of the DMZ.

While the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has taken a string of aggressive military and propaganda steps in recent months, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs said they believed this week’s crossing had been unintentional. The troops were reportedly carrying picks and axes, suggesting they may have been clearing brush and trees to provide better sight lines for patrol bases and guard posts along one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints.

A corridor of wild, empty land, the 160-mile-long DMZ is designed to keep the two sides from each other’s throats — only infantry patrols armed with personal weapons are allowed in the area.

However, its northern and southern edges are flanked by lines of razor wire and other fortifications, and both sides have deployed heavy weaponry ready to reignite a war that technically never ended. U.S. forces no longer operate inside the DMZ with one exception: GIs assigned to a multinational unit that maintains the security of the truce village of Panmunjom.

The frayed state of North-South relations makes the peninsula especially dangerous at present. As both sides release balloons across the border and South Korea restarts military propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts, diplomatic mechanisms to ratchet down tensions have withered. A 2018 bilateral agreement, the Comprehensive Military Agreement, is dead in the water and North-South crisis hotlines are silent.

“North Korea has not been picking up phones,” said Moon Chung-in, a prominent academic who advised the three liberal Seoul administrations that engaged with North Korea. “Not the military hotlines, the direct hotline between the two leaders, the administrative hotlines in Panmunjom, the military hotlines or the intelligence agency hotlines.”

The bulk of the DMZ is rugged, wooded frontier country, dotted with millions of landmines and patrolled by infantry from both sides. South Korean and U.S. officers say patrol navigation in the DMZ must be ultra-precise: A line of markers, installed after the cease-fire that ended the 1950-53 Korean War, have not been maintained since the 1970s and have virtually disappeared.

“It is quite tranquil and full of nature — there are lots of deer and wild boar — it is almost a shame that people try to kill each other in there,” said Chun In-bum, a retired general who, as a junior officer, led patrols inside the DMZ. “It is quite peaceful, but underneath all of that are a lot of landmines and a lot of North Koreans.”

One risk is straying off patrol routes and into mined areas. Another is unintentionally crossing the MDL, originally demarcated by 1,292 yellow metal signs, with English and Korean writing on the southern-facing side, and Chinese and Korean on the northern-facing side.

“Each side had responsibility for making repairs, per the armistice, but in the early ’70s, the North Koreans quit repairing the ones they were responsible for and started shooting at our teams,” said Steve Tharp, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who today guides tours south of the DMZ.

An unpublished study by the U.N. Command Military Armistice Commission a decade ago found that 95% of the line of markers had been reclaimed by nature and no longer exist, Mr. Tharp said, and there is no way to reinstall the line of markers without agreement from both sides.

“Who is going to go out there and replace them?” Mr. Chun asked. “To replace them, you have to coordinate with the other guys, about where the exact spots need to be.”

Given the lack of any physical barriers, patrol commanders inside the DMZ rely on GPS signals, careful map navigation and close familiarity with patrol routes to ensure they don’t cross the MDL by accident, said Mr. Chun.

Patrol duty is not assigned to all troops. “We select our platoon leaders,” he said. “We only send in people that we trust.”

In 2015, South Korea fired shells into uninhabited areas of the North after it said the North fired its own guns toward Southern loudspeakers. However, U.S. troops who debriefed South Koreans who witnessed the “incoming fire” were doubtful, suggesting they had mistaken lightning for artillery impacts.

Mr. Chun, the ex-general, says the uncertain state of the DMZ remains a prime concern.

“There are hundreds of thousands of men and artillery pieces all staring down at each other,” he said. “If you guys knew the realities, you’d all be scared.”

• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.

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washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon

2. N. Korea's Kim hopes to continue to develop 'meaningful, close' ties with Putin

(LEAD) N. Korea's Kim hopes to continue to develop 'meaningful, close' ties with Putin | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · June 12, 2024

(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; UPDATES with more details throughout)

SEOUL, June 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has voiced hope for continuing to develop "meaningful and close" ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, state media reported Wednesday, amid growing speculation that the Russian leader could soon travel to Pyongyang.

In a congratulatory message to Putin on the occasion of Russia's national day, Kim said the two nations' ties have evolved into an "unbreakable relationship of comrades-in-arms" following his summit with Putin in Russia's Far East in September last year, according to the Korean Central News Agency.

"The meaningful ties and close comradely relations, to be continued between us in the future, will further consolidate the eternal milestone of the DPRK-Russia relations in the new era," Kim said, using the acronym of North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

This file photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 14, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin holding a summit at Russia's Vostochny spaceport the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Putin is expected to make a trip to North Korea as early as this month before paying a visit to Vietnam, the Russian daily Vedomosti reported earlier this week. The Kremlin earlier said Putin had accepted Kim's invitation to visit North Korea during last year's summit.

Japanese broadcaster NHK reported Wednesday that Russia is arranging Putin's visit to North Korea and that he could go "as early as next week" as part of a tour that would include a stop in Vietnam.

If realized, it would be Putin's first trip to Pyongyang since 2000, when Kim Jong-il, the late father of Kim Jong-un, ruled the country.

Signs were detected of the installing of a large-sized structure at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, the Voice of America, a U.S. news outlet, reported, citing satellite imagery. The move warrants attention for possible signs of North Korea's preparations for Putin's visit, it added.

North Korea and Russia have been bolstering military ties and expanding the scope of cooperation in various fields since the Kim-Putin summit.

Pyongyang is suspected of having provided weapons and munitions for use in Russia's war with Ukraine in exchange for Moscow's potential transfer of weapons technology and food aid.

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · June 12, 2024

3. Let’s unpack some questions about Russia’s role in North Korea’s rocket program

Rocket science. it is a thing.

Excerpts:

"It could have been that the Russians exported a whole booster and it just didn't work because it's rocket science, and sometimes that happens," Lewis said. “If I were the Russians and I wanted to troll, I would export exactly the same thing I exported to South Korea.

"It could be that the Russians gave them an engine, or gave them some help, and it was a crash program and it failed," he said. "It could be that this program has existed for a long time, and we just never knew about it, and the Russians helped them get over the finish line.

"I think all of those things are possible," Lewis said. "It is just very notable that they have switched propellant types.”

Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and renowned tracker of spaceflight activities, suggested North Korea may have covertly developed a new rocket engine, with or without Russian help. "I agree this isn't something they just started to work on a few months ago," he told Ars.

North Korea has rushed rockets to the launch pad before, sometimes catching US intelligence officials by surprise. On many of these occasions, the rockets failed on their first test flights. "When a country is willing to take significant technical risk, then the timelines get compressed," Lewis said.

In recent years, North Korea has been more forthcoming about its launch failures than in the early years of its launch program. Last year, the country's state news agency published photos of the Chollima-1 rocket, even while admitting it failed in flight. However, North Korea released no images of its new rocket after its May 27 launch.

Perhaps North Korean officials are withholding photos until the new rocket has a successful launch, or maybe Putin and Kim will discuss the launch during their meeting later this month. If North Korea clams up about the new rocket, US officials might disclose more about what they know.

Let’s unpack some questions about Russia’s role in North Korea’s rocket program

"It seems very likely that the shift in propellant type is a function of the access to Russia."

STEPHEN CLARK - 6/11/2024, 6:30 PM

Ars Technica · by Stephen Clark · June 11, 2024

Enlarge / In this pool photo distributed by Sputnik agency, Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un visit the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur region in 2023. An RD-191 engine is visible in the background.

Vladimir Smirnov/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly visit North Korea later this month, and you can bet collaboration on missiles and space programs will be on the agenda.

The bilateral summit in Pyongyang will follow a mysterious North Korean rocket launch on May 27, which ended in a fireball over the Yellow Sea. The fact that this launch fell short of orbit is not unusual—two of the country's three previous satellite launch attempts failed. But North Korea's official state news agency dropped some big news in the last paragraph of its report on the May 27 launch.

The Korean Central News Agency called the launch vehicle a "new-type satellite carrier rocket" and attributed the likely cause of the failure to "the reliability of operation of the newly developed liquid oxygen + petroleum engine" on the first stage booster. A small North Korean military spy satellite was destroyed. The fiery demise of the North Korean rocket was captured in a video recorded by the Japanese news broadcaster NHK.

Petroleum almost certainly means kerosene, a refined petroleum fuel used on a range of rockets, including SpaceX's Falcon 9, United Launch Alliance's Atlas V, and Russia's Soyuz and Angara.

“The North Koreans are clearly toying with us," said Jeffrey Lewis, a nonproliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. "They went out of their way to tell us what the propellant was, which is very deliberate because it’s a short statement and they don’t normally do that. They made a point of doing that, so I suspect they want us to be wondering what’s going on."

Surprise from Sohae

Veteran observers of North Korea's rocket program anticipated the country's next satellite launch would use the same Chollima-1 rocket it used on three flights last year. But North Korea's official statement suggests this was something different, and entirely unexpected, at least by anyone without access to classified information.

Ahead of the launch, North Korea released warning notices outlining the drop zones downrange where sections of the rocket would fall into the sea after lifting off from Sohae Satellite Launching Station on the country's northwestern coast.

A day before the May 27 launch, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported a "large number of Russian experts" entered North Korea to support the launch effort. A senior South Korean defense official told Yonhap that North Korea staged more rocket engine tests than expected during the run-up to the May 27 flight.

Then, North Korea announced that this wasn't just another flight of the Chollima-1 rocket but something new. The Chollima 1 used the same mix of hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide propellants as North Korea's ballistic missiles. This combination of toxic propellants has the benefit of simplicity—these liquids are hypergolic, meaning they combust upon contact with one another. No ignition source is needed.

Enlarge / A television monitor at a train station in South Korea shows an image of the launch of North Korea's Chollima-1 rocket last year.

Kim Jae-Hwan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Kerosene and liquid oxygen are nontoxic and more fuel-efficient. But liquid oxygen has to be kept at super-cold temperatures, requiring special handling and insulation to prevent boil-off as it is loaded into the rocket.

Complicated rocket science

Putin's upcoming trip to North Korea, first reported by Russia's Vedomosti newspaper, will reciprocate North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's trip to the Vostoschny Cosmodrome in Russia's Far East last September. At Vostochny, Russia's newest space launch site, Kim saw hardware and infrastructure for the Russian Angara rocket and discussed cooperation on military matters. When asked whether Russia would help North Korea launch a satellite, Putin replied: "That's why we're here."

Since then, US officials have released evidence Russia has used ballistic missiles produced in North Korea in its war against Ukraine. In exchange for missiles and other military munitions, Russia has shipped oil, corn, wheat, and other food products to North Korea. But Russia's support doesn't end there. A White House spokesperson said earlier this year that North Korea is seeking military assistance from Russia in violation of international sanctions, "including fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment or materials, and other advanced technologies."

Diplomats engaged in a back-and-forth debate on Russia's cooperation with North Korea during a May 31 meeting of the United Nations Security Council.

Hwang Joon-kook, South Korea's ambassador to the UN, said it's natural to suspect Russia assisted in the failed rocket launch last month, and such technical cooperation would violate multiple Security Council resolutions. He raised questions about North Korea's use of new propellants.

"There simply cannot be such a quantum leap in highly complicated rocket science in such a short period of time, and therefore, it is natural that we suspect possible technology transfer," he said.

Lewis agrees. “It seems very likely to me that the shift in propellant type is a function of the access to Russia and Russian technology," he told Ars. "It’s hard to otherwise explain why they would have given up on a space launcher design that they just tested a year ago," he said, referring to the Chollima-1, which failed on its first two flights but then successfully put a North Korean satellite into orbit last November.

Enlarge / Hwang Joon-kook, the South Korean ambassador to the United Nations, speaks during a meeting of the UN Security Council in January.

Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images

Russia's deputy permanent representative to the UN, Anna Evstigneeva, said her country's cooperation with North Korea is "exclusively constructive and lawful in nature. It does not threaten or violate anyone, and it will continue." Her statement in the UN Security Council is inconsistent with the evidence of Russia's use of North Korean weapons in Ukraine.

North Korea launched its first satellite in 2012 with a modified ballistic missile after several failed tries, then repeated the feat in 2016 and with the new Chollima-1 rocket in 2023.

So far, though, there's no proof of exactly what, if any, assistance Russia has offered North Korea's space program. Until now, all of North Korea's satellite launch attempts have used rockets derived from the country's missile program, using the same boosters and engines that could power nuclear warheads to distant targets in the United States.

This path toward spaceflight mirrors the way the US, the Soviet Union, and China developed their first satellite launch vehicles. The Soviets modified the R-7, the world's first intercontinental ballistic missile, to launch the Sputnik satellite in 1957. The first US satellite, Explorer I, was launched on a rocket derived from the Jupiter medium-range missile.

Some early ballistic missiles used the same kerosene and liquid oxygen, or kerolox, propellants as North Korea's new launcher, then second-generation Cold War-era missiles transitioned to use hypergolic fuel. Most modern long-range ballistic missiles use solid propellant, which is generally more reliable and has the advantage of being available for use at a moment's notice.

North Korea is in the process of making the switchover from hypergolic to solid fuel in its military's missile program, a change that could add to the country's ability to mount an attack. However, the introduction of a new kerolox engine would not necessarily be applicable to North Korean missiles.

“You could make a terrible missile out of it, but why would you do that when you already have a much better propellant combination in a perfectly serviceable engine," Lewis said.

Ultimately, though, a reliable kerolox rocket could improve North Korea's ability to put larger satellites into orbit that can spy from space. So far, US and South Korean officials have said North Korea's satellites have shown little military utility.

Double-dipping on the Korean peninsula?

The extent of Russia's supposed collaboration on North Korea's new rocket remains a mystery, but it wouldn't be the first time Russia has exported rocket technology to the region.

In the nascent days of South Korea's space launch program, Russia supplied liquid-fueled boosters for three flights of the Naro-1 rocket, a stepping stone to South Korea's all-domestic Nuri launcher. The Naro-1 launched three times, and finally succeeded to become the first rocket launched from South Korea to reach orbit in 2013.

Khrunichev, one of Russia's oldest aerospace contractors, manufactured the entire first stage for each Naro-1 rocket, complete with a kerosene-fueled engine. The boosters are similar to those used on Russia's Angara rocket, which uses the same kerolox propellant mix as the new North Korean rocket.

It just so happens that Kim Jong Un saw parts for the Angara rocket, including its RD-191 engine, when he visited the Vostochny Cosmodrome with Putin last year. Because there have been no signs that North Korea was developing its own kerolox engine, there is widespread speculation that Russia either exported an engine or, perhaps less likely, sent engineers to help the North Koreans build their own.

In either case, swapping one type of engine for another on a rocket is no simple task, particularly if they're using different propellants. The booster stage that North Korea launched last month with the new kerolox engine probably has a different design than the hypergolic Chollima-1. This would surely take longer than the eight-and-a-half months since Kim's trip to Russia.

Enlarge / The Naro-1 rocket, made with a Russian booster and South Korean upper stage, lifts off on a 2010 mission.

Photo by Kim Ki-Nam-pool/Getty Images

"It could have been that the Russians exported a whole booster and it just didn't work because it's rocket science, and sometimes that happens," Lewis said. “If I were the Russians and I wanted to troll, I would export exactly the same thing I exported to South Korea.

"It could be that the Russians gave them an engine, or gave them some help, and it was a crash program and it failed," he said. "It could be that this program has existed for a long time, and we just never knew about it, and the Russians helped them get over the finish line.

"I think all of those things are possible," Lewis said. "It is just very notable that they have switched propellant types.”

Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and renowned tracker of spaceflight activities, suggested North Korea may have covertly developed a new rocket engine, with or without Russian help. "I agree this isn't something they just started to work on a few months ago," he told Ars.

North Korea has rushed rockets to the launch pad before, sometimes catching US intelligence officials by surprise. On many of these occasions, the rockets failed on their first test flights. "When a country is willing to take significant technical risk, then the timelines get compressed," Lewis said.

In recent years, North Korea has been more forthcoming about its launch failures than in the early years of its launch program. Last year, the country's state news agency published photos of the Chollima-1 rocket, even while admitting it failed in flight. However, North Korea released no images of its new rocket after its May 27 launch.

Perhaps North Korean officials are withholding photos until the new rocket has a successful launch, or maybe Putin and Kim will discuss the launch during their meeting later this month. If North Korea clams up about the new rocket, US officials might disclose more about what they know.

"Then we’ll be able to work out how North Korean it is and how Russian it is," Lewis said.

Ars Technica · by Stephen Clark · June 11, 2024

4. DPRK (North Korea): Open Briefing on the Human Rights Situation : What's In Blue : Security Council Report

Hopefully we will see a report from this later today or tomorrow.

DPRK (North Korea): Open Briefing on the Human Rights Situation : What's In Blue : Security Council Report

Posted Tue 11 Jun 2024

securitycouncilreport.org

DPRK (North Korea): Open Briefing on the Human Rights Situation

Tomorrow morning (12 June), the Security Council is expected to convene for an open briefing on the human rights situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) under the agenda item “The situation in the DPRK”. The meeting was requested by Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), the UK, and the US. The expected briefers are UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the DPRK Elizabeth Salmón, and a representative of civil society.

Background

The Council first discussed the human rights situation in the DPRK on 22 December 2014 following a request from the P3 (France, the UK, and the US) and then-elected Council members Australia, Chile, Jordan, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the ROK, and Rwanda, which cited the final report of the Commission of Inquiry on human rights in the DPRK (COI). The COI’s 7 February 2014 report concluded that systematic, widespread, and gross human rights violations had been committed by the DPRK and found that many of these violations constituted crimes against humanity. Among other matters, the report recommended that the Council refer the situation in the DPRK to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and impose targeted sanctions against those most responsible for committing crimes against humanity.

The December 2014 meeting request, which also asked for “The situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” to be formally placed on the Council’s agenda “without prejudice to the item on non-proliferation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea”, was unsuccessfully opposed by China and Russia. (For more information, see our 19 December 2014 What’s in Blue story.) Since then, the Council’s consideration of this issue has remained contentious due to differing views among Council members as to whether human rights violations in the DPRK constitute a threat to international peace and security. China has regularly argued that the Council is not the appropriate UN forum for discussing human rights issues, that such issues should not be politicised, and that discussion of human rights in the DPRK jeopardises efforts to ease tensions and denuclearise the Korean Peninsula. Russia has adopted a similar position, together with some elected members.

Other Council members, however, have taken the view that the human rights situation in the DPRK is directly linked to international peace and security and merits attention from the Council. These members tend to argue that human rights violations perpetrated by the DPRK enable it to pursue its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes and often point to specific examples, such as the use of revenue generated by overseas workers from the DPRK to fund these programmes, as evidence to support their arguments.

From 2014 to 2017, the Council held an annual open briefing on the human rights situation in the DPRK featuring briefings from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and senior UN Secretariat officials. Procedural votes took place before these meetings were held because China objected to the provisional agenda. These objections were supported by Russia and some elected members. Pursuant to rule 9 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, the first item of the provisional agenda for each Council meeting is the adoption of the agenda. In accordance with established practice, the agenda is normally agreed ahead of the meeting and adopted without a vote. If the agenda cannot be agreed before the meeting and a Council member raises an objection to the provisional agenda, the Council president will call for a procedural vote on the adoption of the agenda. Under Article 27 of the UN Charter, procedural decisions of the Council require nine affirmative votes and cannot be vetoed by a permanent member.

From 2018 to 2022, the Council did not convene for an open briefing on the human rights situation in the DPRK, apparently due to a lack of sufficient support among Council members. Members who favour Council discussion of the issue instead sought to hold informal meetings on the topic. On 9 December 2022, for example, a meeting on the human rights situation in the DPRK was held under “any other business”, a standing item in closed consultations, following a request from then-Council member Albania and the US.

On 17 August 2023, the Council convened for the first open briefing on the human rights situation in the DPRK since 2017. Albania, Japan, and the US requested the meeting to discuss the links between human rights abuses and violations in the DPRK and international peace and security. Unlike previous years in which an open briefing was held, China did not object to the provisional agenda at the outset of the open briefing. Following the meeting, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield (US) delivered a joint statement on the human rights situation in the DPRK on behalf of 52 member states and the European Union (EU). The statement was signed by nine current Council members: France, Ecuador, Japan, Malta, the ROK, Slovenia, Switzerland, and the UK.

Tomorrow’s Meeting

In his briefing, Türk might refer to specific examples of human rights violations perpetrated by DPRK authorities, highlight the work being done by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) to document these violations, and note that the Human Rights Council (HRC) has recently requested a comprehensive report on the human rights situation in the DPRK. Among other matters, this report will take stock of the implementation of the recommendations outlined in the COI’s 2014 report.

During a 20 March oral update to the HRC, Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights Nada Al-Nashif said that there continues to be impunity for human rights violations perpetrated in the DPRK. She argued that accountability should be pursued outside of the DPRK and suggested that this could be achieved through referral to the ICC or national level prosecutions “in accordance with international standards under accepted principles of extraterritorial and universal jurisdiction”. Türk may convey similar messages tomorrow.

Salmón’s latest report, dated 26 March, highlighted that international staff of the UN and humanitarian agencies have not been able to return to the DPRK despite the country partially reopening its international borders in August 2023. (According to media reports, the last UN staff left the DPRK in March 2021 after authorities introduced strict border control measures in January 2020 in response to the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic.) It further noted that there is a lack of up-to-date information on the human rights situation and stated that the international community’s intense focus on security and regular security-related information from the government in the media has diverted attention from the worsening human rights conditions. The report also reiterated that Salmón is concerned that escapees from the DPRK have been forcibly repatriated from China despite repeated appeals by multiple international human rights bodies for a halt to such repatriations. The special rapporteur might highlight some of these issues at tomorrow’s meeting.

In their statements, some Council members, including the P3 and other like-minded states, are likely to express grave concern over the human rights situation in the DPRK and describe the links between human rights violations perpetrated by the government and international peace and security. Some of these members may also urge the DPRK to engage with the UN’s human rights mechanisms and call for accountability for perpetrators of violations.

China and Russia, on the other hand, are likely to reiterate their position that the human rights situation in the DPRK should not be considered by the Council. Both members might also argue that the use of sanctions has done little to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula and may express support for a draft resolution circulated by China in October 2021 that would provide sanctions relief to the DPRK if adopted.

Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield is expected to deliver a joint statement on the human rights situation in the DPRK on behalf of other member states in connection with tomorrow’s meeting.

securitycouncilreport.org

5. Yoon denounces N. Korea's nuclear development as threat to nonproliferation regime

Yoon denounces N. Korea's nuclear development as threat to nonproliferation regime | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · June 11, 2024

By Kim Eun-jung

ASHGABAT, June 11 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol condemned North Korea's nuclear development for threatening the international nonproliferation regime, as he was set to embark on a state visit Tuesday to Kazakhstan, a country that voluntarily gave up its nuclear arsenal.

In a written interview published in the Egemen Qazaqstan and Kazakhstanskaya Pravda newspapers, Yoon touted Kazakhstan as "a global model for denuclearization" for closing the former Soviet Union's nuclear testing site in its territory and dismantling the world's fourth-largest nuclear arsenal after gaining independence in 1991.

"North Korea's nuclear development is a dangerous and irresponsible act that shakes the foundation of the international nonproliferation regime, which countries like South Korea and Kazakhstan have steadfastly defended and developed over the years," Yoon said.

President Yoon Suk Yeol's written interview is published in two Kazakhstan newspapers, Egemen Qazaqstan and Kazakhstanskaya Pravda, ahead of his state visit to the Central Asian nation on June 11, 2024, in this photo provided by the presidential office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Yoon said Pyongyang has continued to develop nuclear weapons despite Seoul's active participation in the international community's efforts for denuclearization and nonproliferation.

Pyongyang has staged six nuclear tests, with its last test in 2017. Nuclear negotiations between the United States and the North have remained stalled since the 2019 Hanoi summit between the two nations ended without a deal.

"Despite repeated decisions by the U.N. Security Council and the unified voice of the international community demanding North Korea abandon its nuclear development, North Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, seriously threatening international peace and security," Yoon said.

Regarding his summit with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev slated for Wednesday, Yoon said the talks will focus on ways to bolster cooperation in the economy, technology, environment, agriculture and other areas.

"The two countries will deepen cooperation in core areas, such as energy, infrastructure and manufacturing," Yoon said. "This meeting is also to discuss ways to expand mutually beneficial cooperation in various future-oriented fields, including key minerals, science and technology, environment, agriculture and climate change response."

Yoon also expressed hope to finalize Seoul's review on designating new countries for the employment permit system to promote exchanges of labor between the two nations.

"South Korea is actively opening its doors from traditional manufacturing to advanced sectors," he said. "In light of the upcoming summit, I hope that the ongoing discussions on designating new countries for the employment permit system will be smoothly concluded."

To promote people-to-people exchanges and tourism, the countries will resume direct flights between Incheon and Astana, Kazakhstan's capital city, for the first time in four years, which were suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic, he added.

Yoon is set to wrap up his two-day state visit to Turkmenistan and head to Kazakhstan, the second leg of his Central Asian trip, which also includes Uzbekistan.

ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · June 11, 2024

6. Editorial: Seoul should pursue nuclear capabilities as US reassesses strategy

The Koreans are listening to Elbridge Colby.

Excerpts:

Changes in U.S. nuclear policy are bound to have significant implications for security on the Korean Peninsula. Elbridge Colby, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development and a potential appointee in a re-elected Trump administration, recently suggested in an interview with Korean media that “the idea of South Korea assuming primary responsibility should happen as soon as possible” instead of relying on U.S. forces for China deterrence. Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member Sen. Roger Wicker also expressed concerns about the North Korean nuclear threat, proposing the idea of redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea in his report titled “21st Century Peace Through Strength: A Generational Investment in the U.S. Military.” While the Democratic and Republican parties differ, both discuss the necessity of nuclear expansion, indicating that the U.S. may develop a new nuclear policy after the November election.

Editorial: Seoul should pursue nuclear capabilities as US reassesses strategy

https://www.chosun.com/english/opinion-en/2024/06/12/X4LMQ7YX4RB7XM6IZVA4X4ETUY/

By The Chosunilbo

Published 2024.06.12. 09:06

White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan speaks during the daily briefing at the White House in Washington, on May 22, 2024./AP Yonhap News

On June 9, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated in an interview with the American media, “We are concerned about the advancing nuclear arsenals of countries like China and Russia, as well as North Korea. We will monitor the situation closely, and we will also listen to bipartisan calls, including from a recent commission of experts that have asked us to at least keep on the table the possibility (of expanding arsenals of America’s adversaries).”

This statement follows another indication of potential nuclear expansion by the U.S. government. On June 7, Pranay Vaddi, special assistant to the president and senior director for arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation at the National Security Council, said at the Arms Control Association annual meeting in Washington, “Without a change in the trajectory that Russia, the PRC (People’s Republic of China), and North Korea are on, the United States will need to continue to adjust our posture and capabilities to ensure our ability to deter and meet other objectives going forward.” Vaddi specifically mentioned the development of the new tactical nuclear weapon B61-13 and the life extension of Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines.

Since signing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START) with the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States has focused on preventing nuclear proliferation. The Democratic administrations of Obama and Biden, in particular, emphasized a “world without nuclear weapons” and aimed to reduce existing arsenals. However, with Russia announcing its withdrawal from nuclear disarmament agreements following its invasion of Ukraine, and China planning to possess 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, the global nuclear security order is in turmoil. Consequently, the U.S. is showing signs of shifting toward nuclear expansion. The Republican Party is even more proactive, advocating for an increase in deployed nuclear warheads and engaging in a nuclear arms race.

Changes in U.S. nuclear policy are bound to have significant implications for security on the Korean Peninsula. Elbridge Colby, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development and a potential appointee in a re-elected Trump administration, recently suggested in an interview with Korean media that “the idea of South Korea assuming primary responsibility should happen as soon as possible” instead of relying on U.S. forces for China deterrence. Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member Sen. Roger Wicker also expressed concerns about the North Korean nuclear threat, proposing the idea of redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea in his report titled “21st Century Peace Through Strength: A Generational Investment in the U.S. Military.” While the Democratic and Republican parties differ, both discuss the necessity of nuclear expansion, indicating that the U.S. may develop a new nuclear policy after the November election.

Trump has previously stated that he is open to South Korea and Japan possessing their own nuclear weapons. Even the Democratic administration, which had insisted on nuclear disarmament, has started to change its stance due to the serious nuclear threats from North Korea, China, and Russia. However, among these nuclear-armed neighbors, only South Korea lacks nuclear weapons. While Japan has the rights to uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel, South Korea does not. The South Korean government should seek opportunities to secure nuclear capabilities in light of the U.S. policy shift.

7. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Army removes 'unification' phrase with paint, even removing 'sacred words' of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il, confusing many people

Failed promises to the Korean people, Failed policies, and failed strategy. And Kim is distancing himself from his father and grandfather.

Kim is in trouble from within.

＜Inside N. Korea＞Army removes 'unification' phrase with paint, even removing 'sacred words' of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il, confusing many people

asiapress.org

(FILE PHOTO) A common slogan on a North Korean street reads, "Long live General Kim Jong Un, the Sun of the DPRK!” Photo taken in March 2013 in South Pyongan Province (ASIAPRESS)

In recent days, the process of erasing the phrase "reunification" has been in full swing in the North Korean military and society. In the process, even the teachings and words of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, which were considered absolutely sacred, are being removed, leading to confusion. (JEON Sung-jun / KANG Ji-won)

◆ Military appears to take lead in campaign to erase mention of unification

In his speech to the 10th session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly on January 15, Kim Jong Un declared that "the terms 'reunification,' 'reconciliation,' and 'kinship' must be completely erased from the national history of the republic."

Following the speech, efforts to erase the terms "reunification" and "South Korea" are in full swing, according to reporting partners in the country. ASIAPRESS first received this information in late April from reporting partner "A," who lives in the city of Hyesan.

A said that soldiers have recently been coming to the city in large numbers to buy paint under the pretext of "cleaning up military bases". Although the soldiers are not allowed to move around the city due to a ban on contact between the military and civilians, they are accompanied by officers to buy paint.

"The purchase of paint is an all-military program, and although it is called 'cleaning up military bases', it is for the purpose of erasing or rewriting existing (pro-reunification) slogans by painting over them."

All this indicates that the military has been mobilized to erase slogans related to reunification.

◆ Predecessors’ achievements erased as campaign to Kim Jong-un shifts into high gear

Kim Jong-un visits the Workers' Party of Korea Cadre School on April 21. A portrait of Kim Jong-un hangs in the school's classroom alongside those of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il. (Quoted from the Korean Central News Agency)

Most notably, the process of removing phrases related to reunification also ends up removing references to the legacy and achievements of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. Reporting partners are surprised by this change, as steles and slogans bearing the words of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il are considered absolutely sacred in North Korea.

In a message sent to ASIAPRESS in early May, A said, "In Samjiyeon, there was a monument related to the reunification of the country at the Baekdu Mountain Secret Camp, but they removed the monument itself." He expressed his dismay that the government would heartlessly remove historical monuments bearing the words of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il to erase the traces of the country's efforts to achieve reunification.

At the same time, A said, lectures and classes are being held to promote the Kim Jong-un era to replace the achievements of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il.

"All the slogans of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il have been replaced by Kim Jong-un, and there are meetings and talks on building a new socialism, Kim Jong-un-style socialism."

"Now, the lessons and achievements of the founding fathers are not even mentioned in studies or lectures," A continued, "but rather Kim Jong-un is touted as the greatest of the greats, surpassing Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, and we are told to take the lead in carrying out the revolution and work with pride and joy in living in the country of the Great Marshal."

◆ Hyundai taxis scrapped because of their markings

B, a resident of North Hamgyong Province, said in late May that he is no longer allowed to say the words "South Korea" or "reunification," and that efforts to erase traces of South Korea are in full swing in his neighborhood.

The authorities are particularly sensitive to anything that might indicate the presence of South Korea, such as South Korean products or trademarks, B said he heard from someone involved in logistics in the Rason area.

"He told me that all five Hyundai cars used as taxis in Najin were scrapped this year. After they declared (South Korea) an enemy state, they immediately tore the South Korean company plates off the cars and erased any Korean or English markings inside."

After the cars were taken out of service, they were stripped of all their accessories, starting with the tires, and then sold and finally scrapped. If this information is true, the cars likely entered North Korea before 2017, when UN sanctions against the country were in full effect.

◆ At the very least, North Koreans hope for exchanges with South Korea

Reporting partners in North Korea are confused by these changes.

"I'm not sure if they're trying to go to war or if they're afraid that South Korea will absorb us because they're doing well," said A. "We don't need to reunify, but it would be nice if we could normalize exchanges," noting that North Korea shares the same racial background as South Korea and is doing well economically.

The new era of isolation, closure, and confrontation that began with Kim Jong-un's regime denying and erasing the achievements of his predecessors seems to be causing confusion and backlash among North Koreans.

* ASIAPRESS communicates with its reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.

A map of North Korea (ASIAPRESS)

asiapress.org

8. 'US ready for anything' amid North Korean threats: Ambassador Goldberg

I hope to include regime collapse and support for Korean unification. I heard a former Korean official say unification is a long way off. I think we should consider may happen slowly for a while and then all of a sudden. Are we (the ROK and the ROK/US alliance) ready?

'US ready for anything' amid North Korean threats: Ambassador Goldberg

The Korea Times · June 12, 2024

Philip Goldberg speaks during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on his nomination to be ambassador to the Republic of Korea, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, April 7. UPI-Yonhap

The United States remains ready for "anything" that could happen on the Korean Peninsula, its top envoy to South Korea said Tuesday amid tensions heightened by Pyongyang's recent sending of trash-filled balloons to the South and Seoul's subsequent reaction to it.

Ambassador Philip Goldberg made the remarks, criticizing the North's floating of the balloons across the inter-Korean border as "outrageous" and "counterproductive" to reducing tensions on the peninsula.

The North has sent waste-loaded balloons, taking issue with South Korean activists' sending of anti-Pyongyang leaflets to the North. In response, the South resumed loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts near the border on Sunday, but decided to halt the broadcasts the following day.

"We are ready for anything that happens, and we are not letting our guard down at all because it's very unpredictable," Goldberg said during a podcast hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The ambassador highlighted the readiness of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) to defend South Korea.

"They follow this hour by hour, minute by minute, and we, at the embassy, do too," he said.

"We are standing by our allies. We are discussing the full range of our military and security policies to make sure that the ROK is reassured and the people of the ROK are reassured of the American commitment that shouldn't be in doubt," he added. ROK stands for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.

Goldberg went on to stress that USFK troops are "evidence" of America's long-term security commitment to South Korea.

His emphasis on readiness was accompanied by his apparent call for Pyongyang to refrain from ratcheting up tensions.

"What they are doing with these balloons are outrageous and so counterproductive to reduction of tensions and we will stand by our ROK allies absolutely in all of this," he said.

The ambassador also said that it is "natural" for the South to take steps to deter the North's provocative acts "through building up the alliance and by showing resolve."

Touching on South Korean activists' movement to send anti-Pyongyang leaflets, he pointed out the need for tension reduction.

"We, of course, believe in free speech and the rest, but we also understand that we need to reduce tensions, not increase them," he said.

Regarding a recent trilateral summit between South Korea, China and Japan in Seoul, the ambassador said that Washington is not concerned about it, as he cast it as a "natural" process to manage their relations.

Goldberg was in Washington to attend a conference of chiefs of U.S. diplomatic missions. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · June 12, 2024

9. What to make of ‘milestone’ US-ROK nuke guidelines on deterring North Korea

The priority task for the NCG must be education and information.

Excerpts:

“Reading between the lines of the Washington Declaration, it seems what the U.S. wanted partly was for South Korea to learn more about nuclear options and not be ignorant of basic information such as what really constitutes nuclear sharing, or what’s realistically possible in Asia,” Kim of HUFS said.

Education about nuclear weapons is an important component of the NCG’s objective of achieving closer communication between the two countries’ leadership and establishing a “common ground,” she said.

What to make of ‘milestone’ US-ROK nuke guidelines on deterring North Korea

While some see promise in integrating nuclear and conventional forces, others raise concern Seoul is fixated on WMDs

https://www.nknews.org/2024/06/what-to-make-of-milestone-us-rok-nuke-guidelines-on-deterring-north-korea/

Jeongmin Kim June 12, 2024

South Korea's F-35A, KF-16, FA-50 conduct an air-to-surface strike drill (background), U.S.-ROK heads of the Nuclear Consultative Group visit ROK missile command after a third meeting | Images: ROK air force, ROK MND, edited by NK News

The U.S. and South Korea held the third meeting of their joint Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) in Seoul this week, after establishing the group last year to bolster communication about how Washington will use its nuclear arsenal to defend against North Korean threats.

But while officials hailed the completion of a classified “guidelines document” as a “milestone” in strengthening extended deterrence, what little they revealed about the guidelines raised questions about a persistent gap in how the two sides understand the role of U.S. nuclear weapons in their military alliance.

One expert told NK News that South Korea’s efforts to share more about its conventional weapons capabilities, such as through the first-ever joint visit to the ROK missile command, represent a key step toward integrating the allies’ conventional and nuclear weapons — a main point of discussion at the third NCG meeting.

But others expressed concern that Seoul remains fixated on using nuclear assets against North Korean threats, while highlighting the escalation risks that come with blending conventional and nuclear forces.

U.S. and ROK delegations for the third NCG meeting pose in front of what appears to be a South Korean surface-to-surface Hyunmoo missile at the South Korean missile command on June 11, 2024 | Image: ROK defense ministry

THE ‘MILESTONE’ ACHIEVEMENTS

In a joint statement after Monday’s NCG meeting, the allies announced that their new guidelines provide “principles and procedures for the Alliance to maintain and strengthen the credible and effective nuclear deterrence policy and posture.”

“Both sides agreed that the Guidelines will lay a solid foundation for strengthening U.S.-ROK cooperation on extended deterrence as equal partners.”

The statement also noted progress in enhancing operational protocols, including security, information sharing and nuclear consultation and communication processes for handling North Korea-related “crises and contingencies.”

At a joint press conference the same day, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Vipin Narang described the completion of the guidelines as “an important milestone” and “nothing short of historic,” noting the rapid pace of the review process.

He explained that the guidelines cover “principles and procedures for consultations” in situations like a North Korean nuclear crisis, stating that the document establishes the “architecture” for what the NCG will provide “oversight” on.

Narang declined to answer further questions about the guidelines, however, calling it a sensitive, “classified” document.

Both Narang and ROK Deputy Minister of National Defense Policy Cho Chang-rae discussed the potential integration of U.S. nuclear weapons with South Korean conventional forces — a concept known as Conventional-Nuclear Integration (CNI) — and how this could improve the flow of information to leadership during crises.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol shakes hands with U.S. counterpart Joe Biden at the White House on April 26, 2023 | Image: Office of the President of South Korea

But not all experts viewed these developments to be as revolutionary as the allies claimed.

“I don’t think things changed that much compared to the past. It needs to have something new that wasn’t there in the past in order to call it groundbreaking, but I don’t think that’s the case,” Jina Kim, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS), told NK News.

Kim suggested that many of the purported achievements, such as improving consultation processes and outlining responses to nuclear crises, were already in motion under previous administrations but have now been framed under the NCG initiative.

But others saw the latest meeting as helping to improve trust and transparency between the allies, especially after officials participating in the NCG visited an ROK missile command on Tuesday.

“We had never publicly disclosed our missile capabilities to the U.S. so much like this, even during previous conservative administrations such as under the Park Geun-hye administration. This means we showed all our cards, building trust to move toward integration,” said Yang Uk, a military analyst at the Asan Institute of Policy Studies.

Such measures could help bridge potential gaps in perspectives and facilitate more effective coordination on deterrence strategies, he said.

U.S. head of delegation for the third NCG meeting, Vipin Narang, visits the South Korean missile command on June 11, 2024 | Image: ROK defense ministry

THE CNI DEBATE

The CNI was a major focus of this week’s NCG meeting and is likely a key component of the classified guidelines document.

Some experts suggested the CNI focus aligns with South Korea’s desire for greater autonomy in responding to potential North Korean nuclear attacks.

“But South Korea’s focus on the CNI can ironically be proof of not fully trusting U.S. extended deterrence,” said Kim of HUFS. “Seoul wants more leadership roles, considering U.S. reservations in allowing such autonomy.”

She noted that the pros and cons of integrating conventional and nuclear forces have long been the subject of academic debate.

“Nuclear weapons are meant to deter others from risking punishment. In that sense, it is reliable in that the impact will be strong, but it’s unreliable in that it’s difficult to use,” she said.

The value of the CNI is that it enables the allies to better respond to lower-level threats without the use of nuclear weapons, according to Kim. The downside is that integration means North Korea could misinterpret the movement of conventional weapons in a crisis as a sign of impending nuclear use.

“Integration of nuclear and conventional can, therefore, lead to a heightened possibility of miscalculation … and open up doors to a full-fledged nuclear crisis,” the expert explained, noting that the U.S. may not be fully on board with Seoul’s pursuit of CNI.

Yang of Asan agreed on potential differences but emphasized South Korea’s rationale.

“The CNI concept prepares for simultaneous nuclear and conventional conflicts on the peninsula by integrating both weapon systems operationally. Lacking nuclear assets, South Korea sees value in this combined approach.”

South Korean military conducts a live-fire exercise at islands near the Northern Limit Line in May 2024 using artillery and tanks | Image: ROK marine corps

NUCLEAR EDUCATION

The U.S. and South Korea agreed to establish the NCG under the 2023 April Washington Declaration, which promised improvements in U.S. extended deterrence while noting South Korea’s commitment to nonproliferation following Yoon’s controversial suggestion that Seoul could go nuclear.

Experts also raised concern that the latest NCG meeting shows South Korea still seeks to portray the mechanism as primarily focused on access to nuclear weapons, even as the U.S. emphasizes its role in nuclear nonproliferation.

During Monday’s briefing, South Korean official Cho Chang-rae described the alliance as having been “upgraded to a nuclear and conventional-based one” through the recent NCG meeting.

This echoes Yoon’s claim that NCG upgraded the U.S.-ROK relationship to a “nuclear-based alliance,” a phrase that experts said inaccurately represented the goals of extended deterrence.

“It’s important the NCG doesn’t just focus the alliance on nuclear issues,” said Adam Mount, a senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists. “Many of the pressing challenges and opportunities are with conventional weapons, including South Korea sharing more information about its capabilities and plans and both countries learning how to employ U.S. conventional forces to deter and respond to nuclear use. The goal shouldn’t be more nuclear but better strategic deterrence.”

The joint statement notably stated that South Korean government officials took courses in May to enhance “expertise on nuclear deterrence application in the region,” and at the briefing, Narang stressed the importance of educating decision-makers on nuclear deterrence.

“Reading between the lines of the Washington Declaration, it seems what the U.S. wanted partly was for South Korea to learn more about nuclear options and not be ignorant of basic information such as what really constitutes nuclear sharing, or what’s realistically possible in Asia,” Kim of HUFS said.

Education about nuclear weapons is an important component of the NCG’s objective of achieving closer communication between the two countries’ leadership and establishing a “common ground,” she said.

Joon Ha Park and Lina Park contributed reporting to this article. Edited by Bryan Betts

10. Pyongyang airport terminal cleared of planes in sign of prep for Putin visit

Imagery at the lnk.

Pyongyang airport terminal cleared of planes in sign of prep for Putin visit

Similar activity seen just before past foreign leader visits, suggesting Russian leader could soon land in North Korea

https://www.nknews.org/pro/pyongyang-airport-terminal-cleared-of-planes-in-sign-of-prep-for-putin-visit/

Colin Zwirko June 12, 2024

The Pyongyang International Airport terminal building | Image: NK Pro (Oct. 2016)

North Korea has completely cleared planes from the tarmac in front of Pyongyang International Airport in recent days, a rare activity associated with foreign leader visits that likely signals preparations to host Russian leader Vladimir Putin as early as this week.

NK Pro analysis of Planet Labs imagery shows Air Koryo planes were removed from a parking apron near the airport’s terminal building between June 6 and 10. They remained parked in other parts of the airport on June 11.

The same action was taken just prior to other world leaders arriving for meetings with DPRK leader Kim Jong Un in 2018 and 2019, apparently to make room for the large fleets of visiting delegations.

It appeared to occur at least one day before high-ranking Russian and Chinese guests arrived in early Sept. 2018 and again later that month before South Korean President Moon Jae-in visited.

Air Koryo planes were removed from their typical parking spots near the Pyongyang airport terminal and parked in other areas between June 6 and 11. | Images: Planet Labs (June 6, 2024), edited by NK Pro

Air Koryo planes were removed from their typical parking spots near the Pyongyang airport terminal and parked in other areas between June 6 and 11. | Images: Planet Labs (June 11, 2024), edited by NK Pro

Imagery shows North Korean planes were also moved away from the terminal during Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit in June 2019.

There is not enough historical satellite imagery available to determine precisely how far in advance the actions took place in these cases, but they did not appear to occur more than three days prior to guest arrivals.

Such clearing of parking aprons has only otherwise appeared ahead of tarmac resurfacing, like in late 2023 and during major renovations in 2014, leaving open this alternative explanation as well.

Putin’s office has confirmed he is preparing to visit Pyongyang, as he promised when he last met Kim in the Russian Far East last September, but neither side has revealed the planned dates.

Reuters reported on Monday that Putin is expected to visit Vietnam from June 19 to 20, meaning he could visit North Korea before that, but these dates have also yet to be officially confirmed.

The clearing of planes at Pyongyang airport could signal a sooner date, as early as this week, or it could be intended to make room for Putin’s advance team.

The Russian leader is expected to stay in Moscow at least through Wednesday, the Russia Day national holiday, to participate in an awards ceremony.

Besides the efforts at the airport, Planet Labs imagery also shows other activity across Pyongyang possibly related to preparations for Putin’s visit.

These images show tree clearing efforts between June 5 and 11 around the Kumsusan Guesthouse in Pyongyang, possibly related to security or logistics concerns ahead of Putin’s visit. | Images: Planet Labs (June 5, 2024), edited by NK Pro

Roads were also repaved at the DPRK defense ministry campus in recent days. | Images: Planet Labs (June 5, 2024), edited by NK Pro

Roads were also repaved at the DPRK defense ministry campus in recent days. | Images: Planet Labs (June 11, 2024), edited by NK Pro

Between June 5 and 11, repaving and renovation work appeared at a Russian war monument called Liberation Tower as well as at the DPRK defense ministry campus, suggesting the two may meet there amid strengthening military ties and weapons trade.

Clusters of trees were also cut down at the same time around multiple buildings at the Kumsusan Guesthouse, a large and luxurious mansion and garden complex newly built ahead of Xi’s 2019 visit, suggesting Putin may stay there and that the work could be part of security or logistical planning.

A number of large objects appeared at Kim Il Sung Square on June 10 and 11 as well, possibly in preparation for an event the two leaders will attend.

A Russian government plane also landed in Pyongyang last week for a two-day stay, possibly related to planning for Putin’s visit, but neither side revealed who visited or the purpose of the trip.

Edited by Bryan Betts

11. What to make of ‘milestone’ US-ROK nuke guidelines on deterring North Korea

The priority task for the NCG must be education and information.

Excerpts:

“Reading between the lines of the Washington Declaration, it seems what the U.S. wanted partly was for South Korea to learn more about nuclear options and not be ignorant of basic information such as what really constitutes nuclear sharing, or what’s realistically possible in Asia,” Kim of HUFS said.

Education about nuclear weapons is an important component of the NCG’s objective of achieving closer communication between the two countries’ leadership and establishing a “common ground,” she said.

What to make of ‘milestone’ US-ROK nuke guidelines on deterring North Korea

While some see promise in integrating nuclear and conventional forces, others raise concern Seoul is fixated on WMDs

https://www.nknews.org/2024/06/what-to-make-of-milestone-us-rok-nuke-guidelines-on-deterring-north-korea/

Jeongmin Kim June 12, 2024

THE ‘MILESTONE’ ACHIEVEMENTS

“Both sides agreed that the Guidelines will lay a solid foundation for strengthening U.S.-ROK cooperation on extended deterrence as equal partners.”

Narang declined to answer further questions about the guidelines, however, calling it a sensitive, “classified” document.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol shakes hands with U.S. counterpart Joe Biden at the White House on April 26, 2023 | Image: Office of the President of South Korea

But not all experts viewed these developments to be as revolutionary as the allies claimed.

But others saw the latest meeting as helping to improve trust and transparency between the allies, especially after officials participating in the NCG visited an ROK missile command on Tuesday.

Such measures could help bridge potential gaps in perspectives and facilitate more effective coordination on deterrence strategies, he said.

U.S. head of delegation for the third NCG meeting, Vipin Narang, visits the South Korean missile command on June 11, 2024 | Image: ROK defense ministry

THE CNI DEBATE

The CNI was a major focus of this week’s NCG meeting and is likely a key component of the classified guidelines document.

Some experts suggested the CNI focus aligns with South Korea’s desire for greater autonomy in responding to potential North Korean nuclear attacks.

She noted that the pros and cons of integrating conventional and nuclear forces have long been the subject of academic debate.

Yang of Asan agreed on potential differences but emphasized South Korea’s rationale.

South Korean military conducts a live-fire exercise at islands near the Northern Limit Line in May 2024 using artillery and tanks | Image: ROK marine corps

NUCLEAR EDUCATION

During Monday’s briefing, South Korean official Cho Chang-rae described the alliance as having been “upgraded to a nuclear and conventional-based one” through the recent NCG meeting.

This echoes Yoon’s claim that NCG upgraded the U.S.-ROK relationship to a “nuclear-based alliance,” a phrase that experts said inaccurately represented the goals of extended deterrence.

Joon Ha Park and Lina Park contributed reporting to this article. Edited by Bryan Betts

12. New Korean flare-up carries greater air of menace

My assessment remains that it is internal stressors that are causing Kim's actions.

I do not think Russia cna get north Korea to act toward South Korea in a way solely to benefit Russia.

New Korean flare-up carries greater air of menace – DW – 06/12/2024

Julian Ryall

3 hours ago3 hours ago

The two Koreas are facing off again, with "warning shots" fired in the DMZ and Seoul blasting propaganda in response to Pyongyang's trash-filled balloons. Is Moscow behind Kim Jong Un's newly found confidence?

Border tensions are a fact of life on the Korean Peninsula, but analysts warn that the current spike in incidents — gunfire in the Demilitarized Zone, balloons carrying propaganda to both the North and South and ramped-up rhetoric from Pyongyang — seems "different" and more alarming than usual.

Some are interpreting it as North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un giving up all pretense of wanting to cooperate with the South. Others say he is banging on the war drum to distract his hungry and disaffected people.

But there is another, far more worrying explanation. Some analysts see the latest escalation as a sign that Kim has finally secured the unswerving support of Russia, and is confident that Russian President Vladimir Putin would back him militarily should the need arise.

What's behind new tensions between North and South Korea

And that could make Kim overstep the red lines that have held both sides in check on the border since the end of the Korean War in 1953. Additionally, analysts worry that even a minor clash on land, sea or in the air could very quickly escalate if neither side backs down, potentially turning a localized incident into a much more serious situation.

A new and different Pyongyang

"We can clearly see a change in North Korea's behavior recently, becoming more aggressive," said Hyun Seung-soo, an expert in North Korea-Russian relations at the Seoul-based Korea Institute for National Unification.

"That is because of the change in the relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang, with Putin choosing to partner with North Korea as part of his global political strategy," Hyun told DW.

That arrangement has seen North Korea provide Russia with millions of artillery rounds and an unknown quantity of missiles that have been used by Russian forces in the war in Ukraine, according to the US and other Western governments. Both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the transfer of weapons.

In return, Russia is believed to have provided fuel to North Korea, along with desperately needed foodstuffs, and Russian scientists are understood to be assisting in the development of the North's military arsenal, including missiles, satellites and nuclear weapons.

If confirmed, such assistance would violate United Nations Security Council resolutions, to which Russia is a signatory.

"I absolutely agree that Kim is more dangerous now because he is confident that he has a large and powerful friend in Russia," Hyun said. "He could see this as a chance to take military actions against the South; this recent rude behavior is very dangerous."

Balloons carrying trash, human waste

The sudden uptick in cross-border aggression can be traced back to the North's failed attempt to launch a rocket carrying a satellite into orbit on May 27. The launch was widely condemned, including in South Korea, as a breach of UN Security Council resolutions.

Pyongyang doubled down by launching a barrage of short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan and, more recently, launching thousands of helium-filled balloons carrying trash and human waste over the border into the South. The balloons caused little damage but have been criticized as "disgusting."

North Korea sends hundreds of trash balloons across border

In turn, Seoul has ordered the reinstallation of vast speaker systems on the border to broadcast anti-Kim propaganda messages into the North.

The tit-for-tat escalation has continued, with Pyongyang similarly deploying loudspeaker systems on the border and repeating that it does not recognize the sea border off the west coast of the peninsula.

Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, has also warned that the South will be the target of unspecified "new counteraction" if it continues to send propaganda over the frontier and does not halt loudspeaker broadcasts. The North has in the past threatened to use long-range artillery to destroy loudspeakers while analysts have also suggested that it could resort to attacks with unmanned aerial vehicles.

North 'seems very angry'

On Sunday, South Korean personnel stationed in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) said they fired "warning shots" after a unit of around 50 North Korean troops crossed the inter-Korean border, designated as halfway across the DMZ that bisects the peninsula. The South has played down the incident and suggested that the North Koreans had inadvertently crossed the poorly marked demarcation line.

Nevertheless, reports of gunfire on the border have raised concern.

"This confrontation seems different, more dangerous than previous times," said Rah Jong-yil, a former diplomat and senior South Korean intelligence officer. "The tension seems greater, as does the possibility of conflict."

Why North Korea is more dangerous than ever

"The North seems very angry," he added. "They know that their economy is a fraction of that of the South, the people know their way of life is not comparable to us and I can only suggest that the balloons are an attempt to cause as much mischief as possible."

US doubles down on support to Seoul

On the plus side, Rah added, the South's primary ally, the United States, has made a number of high-profile moves and statements in recent weeks to underline its commitment to its relationship with South Korea. A US Navy submarine was in port in the South a few weeks ago, a B-1 nuclear-capable bomber flew a mission close to the border, accompanied by South Korean fighters, and the US is maintaining very obvious surveillance of movements in the North.

This week, US ambassador to Seoul Philip Goldberg warned that the US was "ready for anything that happens."

With tensions rising, analysts are looking at two upcoming anniversaries that have, in the past, been the occasion of cross-border claim and counterclaim. June 29 marks the 23rd anniversary of the Second Battle of Yeonpyeong in 2002, when two North Korean patrol boats violated the West Sea border and clashed with South Korean warships. Six South Korean servicemen were killed and 18 injured, while around 13 North Koreans were killed.

Even more significantly, June 25 will mark 74 years since the outbreak of the Korean War, which claimed as many as 3 million civilian and combatant lives and which Seoul and Pyongyang still blame on each other.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

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13. Oil Prospect Found by Tiny Firm Spurs Hope, Doubt in Korea

Oil Prospect Found by Tiny Firm Spurs Hope, Doubt in Korea

The deposit could reduce the nation’s dependence on imports
Exploration has limited chance of success, geologist says

By Heesu Lee

June 11, 2024 at 8:00 PM EDT

Updated on June 12, 2024 at 5:26 AM EDT

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/major-oil-find-by-tiny-geology-firm-spurs-hopes-doubt-in-south-korea?sref=hhjZtX76

Vitor Abreu is a geologist, but he arrived in Seoul last week like a star, greeted at the airport by flashing cameras and a hoard of reporters.

The head of a 14-person consultancy — headquartered in his suburban Houston home — had discovered what could become one of the world’s biggest oil and gas deposits off the coast of South Korea, spurring hopes of an energy windfall even as skeptics raised questions. His firm found a prospective area, which still required full-fledged drilling to prove its size and viability.

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Announced by President Yoon Suk Yeol in a televised speech, the potential find has gripped a nation struggling with costly fuel imports, underscoring the extent to which energy security has become a priority globally, even if it means tapping fossil fuels that might set back climate goals for decades.

South Korea aims to lift the share of renewables in its power mix to almost a third by 2038 from just 9% in 2022, and make nuclear its largest source of electricity generation, according to a government proposal. The use of fossil fuels — which currently dominate the energy mix — is meant to plunge over that timeline.

Still, the government has been enthusiastic about the potential hydrocarbons at stake. The president touted the field as holding as much as 14 billion barrels equivalent of resources, enough for four years of oil consumption, and 29 years of gas demand in the country. The announcement sent local oil and gas shares soaring and was trending on social media for days.

That’s despite the fact that the field, if successful, would take seven to 10 years to come online, and would still be producing oil and gas well after 2050, the year by which South Korea aims to be carbon neutral.

Abreu has sought to manage expectations. While the basin off the country’s southeastern coast held “great potential,” there was only a 20% chance it would yield fuel during exploration, he said, a rate that’s considered the industry norm, according to independent experts.

“It’s still risky,” the Brazilian scientist said at a press briefing on Friday. “There’s an 80% chance they do not work.”

Doubts Swirling

Any success from the Houston outfit would come after years of disappointment in Korea for much larger players.

After jointly exploring the same region with Korea National Oil Corp. for about 15 years, Woodside Energy Ltd. pulled out of the project last year, saying in its annual report the area was “no longer considered prospective.”

Abreu’s firm ACT-Geo bid for and won KNOC’s offer to jointly continue the assessment in 2023. President Yoon hailed ACT-Geo as a “world-class deepwater technology evaluation company,” though few in the local industry had heard of it. South Korean media also queried its track record.

The bespectacled geologist told reporters his consulting firm, which he describes as niche, had recently opened another office in London, which is also located at a personal residence. The Korean government, meanwhile, highlighted his doctorate from Houston’s Rice University and his experience leading exploration at Exxon Mobil Corp.

“The (president’s) press conference raised a lot of questions for the Korean people,” Abreu said. “So then I came here to actually give a more clear response to the Korean people on this very important project.”

Suraya Tulot, a senior upstream analyst at Welligence Energy Analytics, said it’s possible ACT-Geo could have unearthed new structures, complementing the work previously undertaken by Woodside and KNOC.

“You can come up with a lot of theories, but theories will not be proven until you drill the wells,” she said.

Opposition politicians in Korea have accused Yoon, who has approved drilling to start before the end of the year, of jumping the gun in announcing the discovery. With results of the exploration due in early 2025, and any production to start over the next decade, certainty is years away.

The main opposition party said in a statement that Koreans “cannot tolerate a shred of doubt” over the project’s viability as it will likely cost an “astronomical amount of taxpayers’ money.”

“It’ll take years for us to know whether the reserve is commercially viable,” said Kim Sungwhan, a lawmaker from the opposition Democratic Party.

— With assistance from Stephen Stapczynski

(Updates with details about the prospective area in second paragraph.)

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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