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(note: I will be traveling to Korea for the week (flight departs at 0500) so my news and commentary will be off schedule)
Quotes of the Day:
"What man does not understand, he fears; and what he fears, he tends to destroy."
- William Yeats
"The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. If you try it, you will be lonely often and sometimes frightened. But no price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself."
- Rudyard Kipling
“It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honors that we are fighting, but for freedom alone, which no honest man gives up but with his life.”
- The Declaration of Arbroath, 1320
1. N. Korea tightens discipline as economic crisis deepens
2. N. Korea increases crackdowns on private food vendors
3. Korea to begin development of homegrown air-launched guided missile
4. N. Korea may expand how many trading companies have grain import permits
5. Ex-President Lee Myung-bak likely to be pardoned
6. Bereaved families of Itaewon disaster victims organize civic group
7. Pressuring North Korea on rights issues
8. North Korea's border guard bureau sanctioned by U.S.
9. [Column] Learning from Ukraine’s cyber defense (South Korea)
10. Korean economy could be smaller than the Philippines in 2075, says Goldman Sachs
11. Once treasured lapel pins of North Korea’s former leaders now sell for cheap
12. Why US calls for China to act over North Korean missiles may test limits of Beijing’s influence
1. N. Korea tightens discipline as economic crisis deepens
This bears watching. It is likely Kim is worried about internal instability.
N. Korea tightens discipline as economic crisis deepens
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · December 11, 2022
North Korea is ramping up its propaganda campaign to increase popular support for the country’s pursuit of a “socialist utopia,” a self-sufficient economy that its leader Kim Jong-un says will be delivered despite international sanctions placed over his nuclear weapons program.
The isolated country has suffered tougher sanctions from the United Nations and United States since January 2016, when it carried out a nuclear test. In 2017 and 2018, the economy contracted 3.5 and 4.1 percent, respectively. The COVID-19 pandemic extended negative growth in 2020 and 2021, separately at 4.5 percent and 0.1 percent, according to the latest Bank of Korea data.
In an attempt to boost morale among North Koreans amid the growing economic crisis, Pyongyang on Sunday announced that a brigade of young North Koreans had climbed and toured Paektusan -- a mountain on the North Korea-China border that is considered sacred. The mountain is a centerpiece of Pyongyang’s campaign to sanctify the ruling Kim family and rally North Koreans behind the “infallible leader.” Previous ruler Kim Jong-il was born there, according to the regime’s mythology.
“The brigade revisited the revolutionary achievements made by Kim Jong-il, the supreme leader, who had dedicated all his life to making revolutionary ideologies of Kim Il-sung the very principles that guide this country,” the state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun said, referring to Kim Jong-un’s father and grandfather, respectively. Kim Il-sung was North Korea’s founding leader.
The tour “reinvigorated the faith” North Koreans had in bringing about a land built on socialist ideals, the state newspaper noted, describing the event as “the tradition” pushing the country forward.
Meanwhile, the unprecedented frequency of North Korea’s missile launches this year alone has prompted the international community to step up efforts to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. This week, nuclear envoys from South Korea, the US and Japan will meet in Jakarta, Indonesia, to discuss concrete measures. The three-way alliance is bringing Seoul and Tokyo closer than ever, as they seek to work out their differences over historical disputes -- the latest of which involves compensating Koreans forced to work for Japan companies during World War II.
The trilateral alliance is also increasingly seeking to rein in North Korea’s cybercrimes. Last week, South Korean authorities warned businesses against inadvertently hiring IT staff from North Korea who mask their true identities and take advantage of remote opportunities to skirt international sanctions and earn cash -- an important source for the North’s nuclear and missile programs.
Such IT workers have become a bigger part of North Korea’s longstanding campaign to alleviate its economic isolation by using foreign remittances from its overseas workers, the advisory said. Information on how North Koreans landed jobs and whether companies that hired them suffered any real damage was not made public. In May, the US said rogue North Korean freelancers seeking jobs for global IT companies pretended to be from South Korea, Japan or other Asian countries, in a separate advisory.
By Choi Si-young (siyoungchoi@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · December 11, 2022
2. N. Korea increases crackdowns on private food vendors
Beware internal instability.
N. Korea increases crackdowns on private food vendors
The country’s law enforcement bodies are now threatening to execute anyone caught making illicit food sales
By Lee Chae Un - 2022.12.09 9:43am
dailynk.com
FILE PHOTO: North Korean sellers peddle goods on the fringes of a market in Sunchon, South Pyongan Province, in October 2018. (Daily NK)
North Korea has recently increased crackdowns on private food vendors as part of efforts to push consumers into state-run food stores, Daily NK has learned.
“In late October and then again in mid-November, the government ordered the complete elimination of private vendors of grain products, which has made it very difficult for people to sell food at the moment,” a source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Tuesday.
“The order appears to be aimed at preventing people buying and selling food on the streets, and at bringing food prices under the control of the government,” he added.
The city of Chongjin, for example, has reportedly placed a complete ban on private food sales anywhere other than state-run food stores.
Municipal and neighborhood police officers patrol the streets and alleyways, keeping an eye out for people selling food and confiscating the food of any vendors they find.
VENDORS AND CONSUMERS ARE UP IN ARMS
That has angered not only the vendors themselves but also their patrons, the source said.
“If the state-run food stores were selling rice for less than private vendors, people wouldn’t make an issue of this, but they’re upset because private rice sales are banned even when the prices are basically the same,” the source quoted a resident of Chongjin as saying.
“People who live hand to mouth tend to pick up some rice on credit from private vendors at the market on their way home from work and then pay them back the next day, but credit isn’t accepted at the food stores. So this is an unwelcome change for people without money,” the resident said.
Since these crackdowns have failed to stamp out individual food sales, North Korea is turning to a policy of terror. The country’s law enforcement bodies are now threatening to execute anyone caught making illicit food sales, according to the source.
“Police threats tend to become reality. While the police’s current job is to crack down on private food vendors, the government could decide to make an example of some vendors by having them shot if it decides a warning message is needed,” the source said.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com
3. Korea to begin development of homegrown air-launched guided missile
Korea to begin development of homegrown air-launched guided missile
The Korea Times · December 12, 2022
KF-21 fighter jet / NewsisKorea will embark on a 190 billion-won ($146 million) project Monday to locally develop a long-range air-to-ground guided missile by 2028, the state arms procurement agency said.
The missile, which will be the country's first domestically developed air-launched one, is to be fitted onto the homegrown KF-21 fighter jet under development, according to the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA).
The missile, if developed, will serve as a core asset for Korea's three-axis deterrence system consisting of three elements for air defense, crisis-period preemptive strikes and a plan to target an adversarial leadership in a conflict, DAPA said.
The development of air-launched guided missiles had been an uncharted territory for the country due to a lack of technologies, such as those for safely mounting missiles on aircraft and separating them for use.
But research from 2019-2021 has confirmed the feasibility of the development project, according to DAPA.
The state-run Agency for Defense Development will lead the missile development project, while a series of local firms, such as LIG Nex1 and Hanwha Aerospace, will participate in the production of a missile prototype, officials said. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · December 12, 2022
4. N. Korea may expand how many trading companies have grain import permits
N. Korea may expand how many trading companies have grain import permits
With expectations about an increase in trade on the rise, the exchange rates for the dollar and yuan are climbing
dailynk.com
FILE PHOTO: A freight train pictured in Pyongyang (Daily NK)
With this year’s agricultural production falling far below expectations, North Korean authorities appear willing to expand the number of grain import permits given to provincial trading companies.
According to a Daily NK source in North Korea on Tuesday, North Korean authorities recently told provincial trading companies that “they would permit them to take part in trade if they can import rice or corn.”
Accordingly, the Ministry of External Economic Relations — North Korea’s trade ministry — is screening trade permits for trading companies that have submitted plans to import grain.
While provincially-based trading companies are the entities stepping up to import grain, agricultural agencies like farm management committees and collective farms were the entities that actually requested the rice and corn imports.
The source said state-run food shops have instructed regional agricultural agencies to deliver enough grain to sell for the next six months, but agencies unable to deliver the requested grain are asking trading companies to import the amount needed.
North Korean authorities have also determined that they will be unable to supply grain on their own due to shortfalls in agricultural production. They have instructed the Ministry of External Economic Relations to provide as many trade permits as possible to trading companies with records of successful import activities and connections in China who can deliver the needed grain.
WILL THE DOOR TO TRADE FLING WIDE OPEN NEXT YEAR?
Meanwhile, some North Koreans expect that from next year, trading companies in Yanggang Province and North Hamgyong Province will be able to trade with China like they did prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Although over 90% of the country’s total trade has been conducted by cargo ship through ports such as Nampo or Songnim since the North Korean authorities sealed the border with China in January 2020, some people believe that trade may soon be expanded to overland routes.
With trade expectations on the rise, the exchange rates for the dollar and yuan are climbing.
In fact, the dollar was trading at KPW 8,400 in Pyongyang as of Nov. 27, a yearly high.
In December of last year and January of this year, with expectations for expanding trade plummeting due to the continued closure of the border, the dollar had fallen to KPW 4,700–4,800 in Pyongyang.
Meanwhile, if overland trade with China expands, private sector traders may attempt to engage in smuggling while participating in official trade activity.
Daily NK’s source said trade management committees are saying they will allow private traders to take part in trade “just as long as they accurately report to the state their import lists and totals.”
“However, I understand that the authorities have set a policy mandating that they pay 20% of their import total in taxes,” he added.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com
5. Ex-President Lee Myung-bak likely to be pardoned
Ex-President Lee Myung-bak likely to be pardoned
The Korea Times · December 11, 2022
Former President Lee Myung-bak is expected to receive a special pardon later this year. Korea Times file
By Kwon Mee-yoo
Former President Lee Myung-bak is expected to receive a special pardon later this year as part of President Yoon Suk-yeol's second round of special pardons.
According to the presidential office, Yoon is expected to grant special pardons at the end of the year. The presidential pardons are likely to be granted on December 28.
The former president is serving a 17-year prison sentence for embezzlement and bribery. Lee, who governed the country from 2008 to 2013, was charged with 16 criminal allegations in 2018 and sentenced in 2020.
Currently, Lee is out of prison, having been granted a temporary suspension of his sentence due to health issues. He initially filed the request for a three-month temporary suspension in June and then requested an extension for another three months in September. His suspension is set to expire on Dec. 28 at midnight.
The Ministry of Justice will review the beneficiaries of the pardon on Dec. 20 and the government is expected to announce the official list on Dec. 27 after a Cabinet meeting.
Traditionally, presidential pardons were given to high-profile and model prisoners such as former presidents. Yoon voiced his intention to pardon Lee during his presidential campaign and said during one of his daily briefing session with reporters in June that it would go "against precedents" for the former leader to serve 20 years behind bars.
There was speculation that the former president would be included in Yoon's first round of special pardons back in August, which were granted on the occasion of Liberation Day. However, Lee and other politicians were not included among those who were pardoned at that time. One notable figure who did receive a pardon in August was the Samsung heir, Lee Jae-yong.
Other potential beneficiaries of the upcoming special pardon include South Gyeongsang Province Governor Kim Kyoung-soo, who is currently serving a two-year sentence for online opinion rigging, and former Finance Minister Choi Kyung-hwan.
Kim's prison term is scheduled to end in May 2023. However, if Kim is not reinstated, he will not be able to run for elections until May 2028, which would disqualify him from participating in the next general and local elections.
The Korea Times · December 11, 2022
6. Bereaved families of Itaewon disaster victims organize civic group
Civil society can wield a lot of influence if well organized.
Bereaved families of Itaewon disaster victims organize civic group
The Korea Times · December 11, 2022
Members of the Association of Families of Itaewon Disaster Victims announce its establishment during a press conference in Seoul, Saturday.
By Kwon Mee-yoo
On Saturday, 42 days after the deadly crowd crush in Itaewon on Oct. 29, the family members of victims established a civic organization, demanding a full government investigation of the accident.
The organization, tentatively named the Association of Families of Itaewon Disaster Victims, consists of around 170 family members of 97 victims of the disaster, out of a total of 158 victims.
The association has requested President Yoon Suk-yeol's apology and punishment for those responsible, an investigation into the disaster without political wrangling, establishment of a place for families of the victims to communicate and a memorial space for the victims and punishment for secondary offenses towards the victims.
The family members criticized the government for not conducting a proper investigation into the accident.
Lee Jong-cheol, the father of Lee Ji-han, a victim of the tragedy, asked why the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters had withdrawn its presence from the disaster site in Itaewon without discussing it with the bereaved families.
"The government also does not provide the contact information of the family members, who have to share the grief and deal with the aftermath together," Lee said during a press conference, Saturday.
"I have been rushing to acquire contacts of the victim's families and I met about 50 of them for the first time today."
Another family member of the victims criticized government officials such as Minister of the Interior and Safety Lee Sang-min, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and National Police Agency Commissioner General Yoon Hee-keun for avoiding their responsibility for the deadly accident.
Rep. Kweon Seong-dong of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), who is a close aide to President Yoon Suk-yeol, said the organization should not follow the path of the Sewol ferry disaster.
"Civic groups should not pressure the government by establishing a larger body," Kweon wrote on Facebook on the day of the establishment of the Association of Families of Itaewon Disaster Victims. "It could be wasted in political strife like the Sewol ferry case and would be abused by civic groups to embezzle funds."
Kweon's remarks immediately faced criticism from the opposition party and civic organizations.
"What is 'like the Sewol ferry case' and why should we not choose that path? Are the families of the Sewol ferry victims some anti-government force? Are we against the government?" a family member of an Itaewon victim said during the press conference.
Rep. Lee Su-jin, spokesperson of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), said Kweon dishonored the bereaved family members of the Itaewon disaster as well as the Sewol ferry disaster.
"What is the reason for cursing the bereaved families and civic groups who are asking for the truth even though the government cannot reflect on its responsibility for failing to prevent the disaster?" Lee said during a briefing, Saturday.
The Korea Times · December 11, 2022
7. Pressuring North Korea on rights issues
Yes we need to focus on human rights.
I would be all for opening the border between north and South. But as long as Kim Jong Un is in power that will only be a pipe dream.
I think it is unfair to describe the Bden administration's policy as strategic patience.
Pressuring North Korea on rights issues
The Korea Times · December 11, 2022
Well-crafted approaches will lead to real change
U.S. President Joe Biden's North Korea policy is the same as that of his former boss Barack Obama and his "strategic patience."
Pyongyang has been launching many missiles recently and challenging Washington verbally. However, the Biden administration sticks to its old posture, saying "We are open to solve all issues with talks" ― and then does nothing. Unlike his eccentric and showy predecessor, Donald Trump, Biden and mainstream U.S. diplomats prefer a status quo on the Korean Peninsula. Biden also has no time or resources to care about Kim Jong-un, as he is busy dealing with two far larger and more formidable rivals ― Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
However, the U.S. leader cannot just sit there doing nothing about the thorn in America's neck, especially considering the election. So, Washington played its trump card last week ― human rights issues. On Friday, the U.S. imposed sanctions on 10 North Korean individuals and organizations for serious human rights violations and other crimes. The move coincided with Washington's call, along with 30 countries, including South Korea, for the U.N. Security Council to discuss the North's rights situation openly and not behind closed doors.
Nothing could be more welcome for South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, whose favorite word is "freedom." Intense confrontation with Pyongyang has also been the conservative camp's way of cementing voter support while attacking their liberal rivals as "weak and submissive" to the North. However, Seoul abstained from two major U.N. resolutions recently. One condemned the human rights violations of the Uighur people in China on Oct. 31, and the other on Nov. 16 denounced the rights situation in Crimea after it was annexed by Russia.
The foreign ministry tried to justify the duplicity, saying it "comprehensively considered national interest and other things." It's somewhat understandable because Seoul cannot ignore Beijing and Moscow. Still, South Korea can never become a "global hub state and values-based democracy" as Yoon pledges with such dual standards when it comes to human rights.
Even so, the progressives, more sympathetic to North Korea, should no longer turn a blind eye to what's happening in the North. Delaying the discussion by citing "special circumstances" has long been impossible ― for humanitarian and tactical reasons. The inter-Korean hawks reject all reconciliation attempts under the pretext of human rights problems. Presenting substantive steps in this matter will also help them restore the initiative in the inter-Korean relationship.
At stake is how. For now, only a few things seem clear. First, more pressure and sanctions, as some hardliners call for, will backfire. True, human rights are the sorest part of an autocratic state like North Korea. That means outsiders must take a more subtle approach if they want fundamental changes. For instance, freedom of expression is a fundamental human right. Yet there are other equally critical basic rights, too, such as the right to survive. Take the residents in the inter-Korean border areas. Anti-North activists send balloons containing propaganda leaflets claiming freedom of speech. Still, residents experience threats to peaceful living or even their survival.
A study by three researchers at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) gave some policy insights after studying other troubled countries. They took two countries as contrasting examples: Cyprus and Cuba. "South and North Cyprus opened borders, reinvigorating free travel and economic exchanges," it said. "Such social and economic growth has helped promote peace and human rights." In contrast, the U.S.-led economic sanctions as well as the rigid socialist system have hindered socioeconomic development in Cuba, adversely affecting its peace and human rights, the KINU study said, adding that "This has some similarities to North Korea."
What approach Seoul should take appears simple. However, the incumbent right-wing government in Seoul seems unlikely or unable to do so. That explains why relatively liberal opposition parties, with the help of like-minded civic groups, should maintain the inter-Korean initiative.
The Korea Times · December 11, 2022
8. North Korea's border guard bureau sanctioned by U.S.
Sunday
December 11, 2022
dictionary + A - A
North Korea's border guard bureau sanctioned by U.S.
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/12/11/national/northKorea/Korea-United-States-North-Korea/20221211145924352.html
The UN Security Council convenes in New York on Friday. [UNITED NATIONS]
The United States on Friday imposed sanctions on a number of individuals and entities, including North Korea's border guard bureau, for serious human rights violations and other crimes.
The move came as part of the designation of over 65 individuals and entities in 17 countries by the U.S. to mark International Anti-Corruption Day, which falls on Friday, and Human Rights Day, observed annually on Dec. 10.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the designations partly aim to disrupt and deter "the government of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's role in restricting freedom of movement, mistreating asylum seekers, and exploiting laborers to generate revenue for the state," referring to North Korea by its official name.
To this end, the Department of Treasury said it has designated North Korea's State Security Border Guard General Bureau (BGGB).
"People inside the DPRK reportedly are subjected to forced labor, torture, and other human rights violations and abuses at the hands of the government," the treasury department said in a press release.
"Due to their dire circumstances, tens of thousands of North Koreans have fled the country in the past two decades," it added. "The journey to leave the DPRK is particularly treacherous due to attempts by state security agencies, including the BGGB, to thwart escapes through tight border controls, including land mines and shoot-on-sight orders that have resulted in the deaths of numerous North Koreans.
The department also designated two individuals -- a North Korean national based in Paris, Kim Myong-chol, and a foreign national based in India, Deepak Jadhav -- and seven entities related to a North Korean state-run animation studio, SEK Studio, which it said has utilized animation workers located in North Korea and China to provide low-cost labor.
"DPRK nationals are also often forced to work in foreign countries to generate foreign currency that is utilized to support the DPRK's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missile programs," the treasury department said.
"Foreign entities that are involved in the use of DPRK labor enable the continued poor treatment that these workers endure, which includes constant surveillance, being forced to work long hours, and having a significant portion of their wages confiscated by the regime," it added.
SEK, which itself was designated in December 2021, has "also evaded sanctions targeting the DPRK government using front companies," according to the department.
The designated entities are Everlasting Empire Limited, based in Hong Kong; Tian Fang (Hong Kong) Holding Limited, based in Hong Kong; Fujian Nan'an Import and Export Company, based in China; Limited Liability Company Kinoatis, based in Russia; Funsaga Pte Ltd, based in Singapore; Yancheng Three Line One Point Animation Co., Ltd, based in China; and Quanzhou Yiyangjin Import and Export Trade Co., Ltd., based in China.
The fresh U.S. sanctions came as the U.S. and 30 other countries, including South Korea, Japan, Britain, France and Germany, called on the U.N. Security Council to "publicly" address human rights violations in North Korea.
"The human rights violations and abuses of the DPRK's repressive government are well documented," they said in a joint statement, delivered by U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield on their behalf in New York.
"The country's repressive political climate allows a coercive system of governance that diverts resources to weapons development," they added. "Forced labor -- both domestically and overseas -- also plays a key role in sustaining the government and generating the revenue it uses to fund its weapons programs."
The diplomats called for a public Security Council meeting to discuss North Korean human rights, calling the North Korean government "one of the worst violators" of human rights.
"These human rights violations threaten international peace and security, and it is time for the Council to address it publicly. We urge all Security Council members to support an open briefing in 2023 where we can discuss the human rights violations and abuses committed by the DPRK, the implications for peace and security, and explore ways to incorporate human rights into the peace and security diplomacy in the Korean Peninsula," they said.
Yonhap
9. [Column] Learning from Ukraine’s cyber defense (South Korea)
Sunday
December 11, 2022
dictionary + A - A
[Column] Learning from Ukraine’s cyber defense
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/12/11/opinion/columns/Ukraine-Russia-cyberwarfare/20221211194959487.html
Kim Min-seok
The author is an editorial writer and senior researcher at the Institute for Military and Security Affairs at the JoongAng Ilbo.
“Be afraid and wait for the worst!” a text read when Ukrainian government websites and those of other institutions were hacked before Russia attacked the neighbor on Feb. 24. The warning was posted on Jan. 14. The digital offensive stoked terror across Ukraine before Russia carried out the invasion. It was a type of psychological warfare designed to unsettle and demoralize Ukrainians going into a war with a global power like Russia.
Russia stole personal information of Ukrainian government officials through hacking to threaten them with e-mails. The hackers then brought down the websites of government offices and institutions to prevent them from warning the people about an imminent invasion.
Ten months into the war, Ukraine has been holding up with arms and defense resource assistance from the United States and other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). In the meantime, Russia under West-led sanctions has been struggling amid shortages, such as artillery. Russia is currently bombarding energy infrastructure in Ukraine to cause greater pain for civilians in winter.
Cyber warfare has become a crucial component in the Russia-Ukraine war. We have never seen such a methodical application of cyber warfare.
The war on cyberspace puts South Korea on alert in its confrontation with North Korea, a country with the world’s second or third best cyber war capabilities. As South Korea is arguably the world’s most connected society, heavily relying on internet and IT infrastructure, the country could suffer colossal damage if it does not fully ready itself against cyberattacks from North Korea.
Russia planned a three-staged hybrid war with Ukraine, starting with cyberattacks and a propaganda campaign before commencing full-scale combat operations. In the first stage, it destabilizes the administrative network through electronic intrusion and hacking. In the second stage, it spreads disinformation through manipulation of the IT network in Ukraine to demoralize the Ukrainian people. It then deploys troops and finishes the war as quickly as possible.
The cyberattack had three missions: first, disconnecting and crashing Ukraine’s power and telecommunications networks within 24 hours; second, making Ukraine’s judicial system dysfunctional to prevent law enforcement from arresting pro-Russian citizens or agents; third, disabling websites of the presidential office, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the legislature and the cabinet to interfere with war operations. If North Korea invades South Korea, it can use such tactics nearly in the same way.
Russia planned the cyber operation meticulously. According to AO Kaspersky Lab, Russia planted a destructive malware called WhisperGate from Dec. 21 to 23 in 2021. Five days later, a similar data-wiping malware, called Hermetic Wiper, broke into systems in Ukraine.
On Jan. 13 this year, Russia spread WhisperGate to some networks of government offices in Ukraine. The attack spilled over from the following day. Government websites were manipulated. Mobile apps and bank ATM system crashed.
Russia’s advanced persistent threat (APT) even attacked foreign missions in Ukraine. By mid-February, Ukrainian bank and military websites came down from Russia’s denial-of-service (DDoS) bombardment. Russia has denied any involvement.
On Feb. 23 — a day before the war — a swarm of malware was unleashed to invade government, military, financial institution, airline and IT service networks. Texts with fake news were sent out to Ukrainian citizens. On the invasion day of Feb. 24, most websites of Ukrainian government networks came under ruthless hacking. Local media organizations and European government officials fell victims to DDos attacks and phishing campaign.
In mid-March, Russia hacked into a Ukraine TV channel to broadcast a statement claiming to be from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky calling on the people to surrender and put down their arms. Chinese state media reported the news and came under suspicion of helping Moscow’s propaganda campaign.
But Ukraine did not easily give into the broad-scale cyberattack. The country learned lessons from Russia’s cyberattack in 2014, when it invaded Crimea. The Ukrainian government has since moved all sensitive data and servers to safe places.
The Ukrainian government also rounded up a voluntary digital army. Its hacktivists moved to attack the Russian government and institutions. They hacked the railway network system of Belarus, an ally of Russia, to impede the movement of Russian ground forces. The hackers went so far as to disrupt the telecommunications service of Russia’s Black Sea fleet and obtained sensitive files from Russia’s FSB security agency.
The U.S. and NATO backed Ukraine’s defense on the cyber front. The U.S. government offered a “cyber shelter” to protect Ukrainian websites facing DDoS attacks. The U.S. Defense Department responded to the request in just 15 minutes and installed defense software onto the Ukrainian police server within eight hours. Such quick assistance would not have been offered if Ukraine had not been thoroughly prepared.
Microsoft has been running an intelligence center for months to keep watch on contamination in Ukraine’s IT system. Poland, Estonia, the Netherlands among others dispatched rapid cyber response teams under NATO guidelines. SpaceX has been providing Starlink terminals to Ukraine to help normalize social media services based on the satellite network.
Global hacktivists like Anonymous also joined the cyberwar. After forming an alliance against Russia, they broke into 90 out of Russia’s 100 key databases to degrade Russia’s IT systems. The Russian cyberattack that seemed to be successful from the outset was not so successful. Moscow only invited a slew of counterattacks from Ukraine.
As its intelligence warfare flopped, Russia’s military operation also faced setbacks. Morale of Ukrainian military and civilians was uplifted. Russian tanks and armed vehicles were stopped in the face of strong resistance from Ukrainians in many part of the country.
What if South Korea comes under a full-scale cyberattack from North Korea? Kim Jong-un has likened cyber capabilities to an “all-purpose sword as effective as nuclear weapons.” His declaration means Pyongyang could deploy cyber artillery along with weapons of mass destruction like nuclear missiles against South Korea.
Pyongyang has actually attempted multiple hacking campaigns on the South Korean government, military, financial institutions, media organizations, defense firms and individuals since 2009. It is suspected of stealing cryptocurrencies to finance its weapons development. The country has been accused of theft of more than $600 million in digital assets this year alone.
The Yoon Suk-yeol administration and military authorities must strengthen national-level readiness against cyberwarfare. They must draw up detailed guidelines on dealing with mass-scale cyber provocations from North Korea. Cyber resilience should be enhanced to minimize damage. By learning from the Ukrainian experience, we must seek a closer alliance with the United States, Japan and others, not to mention forming a civilian cyber IT army.
Legal grounds must be set for national cybersecurity. Since the related decrees are presidential level, there is a limit to their execution. A private-public intelligence sharing system must be established to defend civilians effectively against cyber threats from North Korea. The commander of the Cyber Command in our military also must be elevated to three-star general level to enhance operational capabilities.
10. Korean economy could be smaller than the Philippines in 2075, says Goldman Sachs
Korean economy could be smaller than the Philippines in 2075, says Goldman Sachs
donga.com
Posted December. 12, 2022 07:35,
Updated December. 12, 2022 07:35
Korean economy could be smaller than the Philippines in 2075, says Goldman Sachs. December. 12, 2022 07:35. weappon@donga.com.
Goldman Sachs, an American global investment bank (IB), predicted that Korea's economy will start to retreat from the 2060s due to its aging population and fall behind Asian countries such as the Philippines, Malaysia and Bangladesh by 2075. It analyzes that even though Korea will rise as a high-income country after the U.S. and European countries in terms of per capita income, the decrease in the population due to low birth rate and aging society will drag down the overall size of the economy.
The report “The Path to 2075” published by the IB on Thursday (local time) forecasts that Korea’s economic growth rate will fall from an average of 2% in the 2020s to 0.8% in the 2040s, -0.1% in the 2060s and -0.2% in the 2070s. Among the 34 countries that Goldman Sachs released its growth rate forecast, Korea was the only country projected to record a negative growth rate.
Korea's real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase from 2 trillion U.S. dollars in the 2030s to 3.3 trillion dollars in 2060, then stagnate at 3.4 trillion dollars in 2075. Accordingly, as of 2075, the Korean economy will become smaller than Japan (7.5 trillion dollars) and even Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines (6.6 trillion dollars), Malaysia (3.5 trillion dollars), and Bangladesh (6.3 trillion dollars).
The report predicted that Korea's real GDP per capita would reach 101,800 dollars in 2075, catching up close with the U.S. (132,200 dollars) and Europe (14,300 dollars).
한국어
donga.com
11. Once treasured lapel pins of North Korea’s former leaders now sell for cheap
Perhaps some irony. Are market forces having an impact on the leaders of the Socialst Workers Paradise?
Once treasured lapel pins of North Korea’s former leaders now sell for cheap
Upset by the disrespect, authorities are trying to track down original sellers
By Hyemin Son for RFA Korean
2022.12.09
rfa.org
Their portraits must be framed and hung in every home and public building, in classrooms and subway cars. They are enlarged to epic proportions at great monuments. And whenever anyone is seen in public, law dictates that they must wear pin-size portraits on their lapel.
Wherever one turns in North Korea, the faces of the communist country’s former two leaders – founder Kim Il Sung and successor Kim Jong Il, the “Sun” and the “Shining Star” of the Korean people – are everywhere, and they are accorded the utmost respect. At least publicly.
But recently, the lapel pins seem to have lost their cachet, sources inside the country tell Radio Free Asia.
Limited edition lapel pins depicting both men against the red flag of the Korean Workers’ Party – called the “double badge” – used to be considered extremely rare, because they were only issued to government officials. They once traded on the black market for 400,000 won, or about U.S. $50, a huge sum in North Korea.
But these days, they are going for about 20,000, or about U.S.$2.40, less than a kilogram of pork, a source in eastern province of South Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
Another lapel pin that features Kim Il Sung alone, known as the “single badge,” sells for just over $1, the source said.
“The double badge… was once recognized as a symbol of power,” she said. “Now they have been devalued into low-priced goods.”
A North Korean man wears the “single badge” showing the late North Korean leader Kim Il Sung in this file photo. Credit: AP
Who sold them?
North Korea’s ever-vigilant security officers have taken notice, and are trying to trace the badges back to the officials who first sold them, she said.
The reverence given to these two former leaders and their portraits is so great that the energy-starved country diverts electricity to keep their outdoor portraits illuminated at night. And state media lionizes dead school children whose final action was to rush into the flames of their burning home to save the portraits from the fire.
But in South Pyongan province, the badges are selling for the same low prices – less than several heads of napa cabbage, the variety used to make kimchi, a source there told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely.
“In other words, the value of these badges, which should be symbols of idolization, is less than a few cabbages,” she said.
Another double badge that was once a collector’s item, issued by the Chongnyon Jonwi newspaper to the officials of the Socialist Patriotic Youth League, is also now practically worthless, according to the second source.
“Until October, it was going for 8,000 won [98 cents] on the black market, but now it is so common that nobody bothers to pick it up if they see it on the ground,” she said.
The second source said that authorities previously had no problem with the badges changing hands on the black market when the price had been much higher. But because they are now treated like cheap trinkets, authorities are trying to trace them back to the officials who first sold them, she said.
“I don't know what kind of punishment the officials who leaked the badges to the market will face if they get caught in the investigation,” the South Pyongan source said.
There are many different variations of single and double badges, and some are more collectable than others. According to a 2007 book by North Korea expert Andrei Lankov, by that time around 20 badges had been issued since they first appeared in the late 1960s.
RFA reported in Sept. 2019 that North Korea issued a new single badge to elites that featured Kim Jong Il by himself on a red background.
Sources in that report speculated that giving the second-generation leader his own badge might have been an attempt by current leader Kim Jong Un to de-emphasize his grandfather in favor of his father, thereby boosting his own importance.
Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee and Leejin J. Chung. Written in English by Eugene Whong. Edited by Malcolm Foster.
rfa.org
12. Why US calls for China to act over North Korean missiles may test limits of Beijing’s influence
We cannot expect China to solve ROK and US security problems. China likes the dilemma north Korea creates for the alliance.
Why US calls for China to act over North Korean missiles may test limits of Beijing’s influence
- Kim Jong-un’s regime has stepped up its testing this year, prompting the US and South Korea to ask China to do more to rein in the North
- It is unclear how far Beijing can pressure Pyongyang, and some Chinese observers say it is reluctant to push too hard
Jack Lau
and Kawala Xie
Published: 12:00pm, 11 Dec, 2022
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3202840/why-us-calls-china-act-over-north-korean-missiles-may-test-limits-beijings-influence?utm_source=rss_feed
North Korea’s latest missile tests have prompted the United States and South Korea to renew their efforts to get China to rein in its ally, but according to Chinese analysts, there are limits to what Beijing can do.
North Korea this year launched more missiles than ever before but China has said little beyond its boilerplate calls for dialogue and a “political solution”, even after North Korea launched the new Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile last month, which Japan said could reach the continental United States. It was the 63rd ballistic missile launch this year.
Despite Chinese President Xi Jinping telling North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that he was willing to work together for regional peace, Pyongyang still fired more than a hundred rounds of artillery into the sea near its border last week in response to the South’s military drills with the US.
But Washington has said it wants Beijing to do more to curtail North Korea’s activities. On Monday, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said: “The president was very clear after meeting with President Xi about the influence that we know Beijing can have in Pyongyang, and we would like to see them use that influence appropriately … And the bottom line is we haven’t seen them use that influence.”
South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol also urged Xi to do more when they met on the sidelines of last month’s Group of 20 summit, saying: “We expect China to play a more active and constructive role.”
Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said China used to put pressure on North Korea but had failed to make Pyongyang scale down its nuclear and missile programmes and risked making it a “long-term enemy”.
“That was dangerous and at the same time ineffective, so there was a policy change,” Shi said.
Zhang Baohui, a professor who studies East Asian international relations at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, said Beijing used to be willing to work with Washington on the issue, but expected the US to reciprocate on other fronts such as Taiwan and technology.
“Now, Beijing no longer has such incentives in the broader context of escalating Sino-American strategic rivalry,” he said, adding that China valued “strategic solidarity with Pyongyang above all else”, including denuclearisation.
“This reflects the logic of an increasingly bipolar strategic competition between China and the United States, which forces each side to tighten its relations with allies and strategic partners.”
The North Korean leader has said there will be no negotiations over his nuclear arsenal. Photo: kcna/kns/dpa
At a UN Security Council meeting in May, China vetoed a US-drafted resolution to impose fresh sanctions on North Korea for testing ICBMs despite supporting the previous nine sanction votes. Beijing’s UN envoy, Zhang Jun, said the US needed to renew dialogue with Pyongyang.
China has maintained that denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula should be pursued while creating a peace mechanism to address what it calls North Korea’s legitimate security concerns. As the first step to this “dual-track” approach, China said Pyongyang should freeze its missile and nuclear programme in exchange for South Korea and the US halting large-scale joint military exercises.
Although former US president Donald Trump suspended the drills after he met Kim in 2018, expecting the North Korean leader to dismantle his nuclear arsenal, his successor Joe Biden and Yoon have instead chosen to expand the drills to deter North Korea.
Lee Byong-chul, an assistant professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies whose research includes North Korean denuclearisation, said Beijing had downplayed its economic influence to avoid American pressure to act.
“They don’t want to get involved in North Korean issues directly, saying that ‘we have no leverage or no influence towards North Korea’. That’s China’s official posture but internally I believe that China has a very, very big influence or leverage over North Korea but they don’t want to talk about it in public,” Lee said.
He said Beijing had an interest in keeping the status quo on the Korean peninsula because resolving the North Korea issue meant losing power over Pyongyang.
Lee argued that while China was not in a position to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons altogether, it was in no hurry to rein in the development of nuclear arms because the weapons were not sophisticated enough yet and it knew they would not be aimed at China.
Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul, said: “Of course, China has the capability to control North Korea, but it’s not 100 per cent. It’s more like give and take.”
China’s Xi ‘willing to work with’ North Korean leader Kim on regional peace and stability
Kim also noted that China did not always agree with North Korea, adding: “Fundamentally, China supports denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. That’s something that is contradictory to North Korea’s position; North Korea wants to be accepted as a nuclear state and wants to change the denuclearisation dialogue to a mutual arms control dialogue.”
Kim Jong-un declared a hardened nuclear position in September, saying in a speech to the North Korean legislature that the country had drawn a “line of no retreat” on nuclear weapons and there would be no negotiation over them.
Kim, from the diplomatic academy, said that the US fears that tolerating a nuclear North would harm its relations with the South and Japan and warned there was a “very deep, big gap” between reality and Washington and Seoul’s policies.
He said that while denuclearisation had been a reasonable policy when the North began its nuclear programme, it was no longer realistic.
“If the policy is to reflect reality, the United States has to change its policy towards North Korea, which is what North Korea wants. A mutual arms control negotiation is what North Korea wants,” Kim said.
CONVERSATIONS (14)
Jack Lau
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Jack joined the Post in 2020 after studying journalism at the University of Hong Kong. Before that, he read law in London and Hong Kong, where he assisted with research in Chinese legal institutions and civil dispute resolution.
Kawala Xie
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Kawala joined the Post in 2022 and has worked in both news and tech after graduating from Columbia Journalism School. Previously based in the US and Australia, she has worked for multiple international news outlets including Al Jazeera, SBS Australia and Shenzhen Television. She specialises in Asia affairs, breaking news reporting and video production.
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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