Stocks Gain
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recorded their seventh positive week out of the past eight, with both indexes pushing their record levels higher. The NASDAQ posted a 3.3% total return while the S&P 500 added 1.6%; the Dow was an outlier with a 0.5% decline.
A monthly inflation reading only slightly beat expectations, but it was enough to help fuel stock market gains on Wednesday and lift prospects for a possible interest-rate cut in coming months. The Consumer Price Index recorded no change in May relative to the previous month; on a 12-month basis, May’s inflation figure was 3.3%, better than economists’ forecasts for 3.4%.
Another week of shifting interest-rate expectations produced relatively big moves in the bond market. The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to 4.21% on Friday, down from 4.43% at the end of the previous week and well below a recent high of 4.62% on May 29. Yields of 30-year and 2-year notes posted similar weekly declines.
For its seventh meeting in a row, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged. While Chair Jerome Powell said a monthly inflation report released earlier in the day was better than expected, the latest Fed projections suggest the possibility of just one interest-rate cut this year, down from the three cuts that the Fed had projected as recently as March.
Inflation’s persistence appears to be weighing on U.S. consumers, as a measure of consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in seven months. Friday’s preliminary reading from the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey fell to 65.6 from 69.1 in May. Survey participants’ inflation expectations rose slightly.
The World Bank lifted its full-year 2024 outlook for global economic growth, owing in part to recent improvement in the U.S. outlook. The bank now expects global GDP to post a 2.6% annual growth rate, up from a January forecast of 2.4%. U.S. growth is forecast at 2.5%—nearly a full percentage point higher than the bank had predicted five months ago.
Source: John Hancock Investment Management
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