Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Never forget: This very moment, we can change our lives. There never was a moment, and never will be, when we are without the power to alter our destiny."

- Steven Pressfield

“Education is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self-confidence.”

- Robert Frost

"You can't tell how good a man or a watermelon is 'till they get thumped."

- Judge Roy Bean

1. What Do We Do About North Korea? Deterrence by Denial Is the Answer

2. North Korea fires 2 ballistic missiles toward sea

3. Latest DPR Korea missile launch risks escalating tensions, Security Council hears

4. North Korea's Hwasong-12 Missile Test Over Japan Must Be Punished

5. U.S. slams Beijing and Moscow after North Korea fires more missiles following UN meeting

6. N. Korea rebukes redeployment of U.S. aircraft carrier to East Sea

7. S. Korean, U.S., Japanese nuclear envoys condemn N. Korea's missile provocation

8. 112 (II), THE PROBLEM OF THE INDEPENDENCE OF KOREA

9. UN Security Council splits, again, over North Korea missiles

10. US accuses China, Russia of enabling North Korea's Kim Jong Un

11. Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test during China’s Congress?

12. Mint Explainer: The message in missile North Korea fired over Japan

13. Why Japan Didn't Try To Intercept The North Korean Ballistic Missile

14. The problem with tyrants like Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin

15. 12 N.K. warplanes fly in formation, apparently stage firing drills: S. Korean military

16. North Korea Test-Fires Two Short-Range Ballistic Missiles Off Its Coast

1. What Do We Do About North Korea? Deterrence by Denial Is the Answer

Lt Gen Gregson is one of the few experts offering solid recommendations based on sound analysis.

Excerpts:

A real breakthrough would be achieving deterrence by denial. We need a comprehensive multi-domain surveillance network and ready shooters. Immediate launch detection followed by target-quality data on the missile passed to the most advantageous shooter on the network that fires autonomously or near-autonomously. Large doses of autonomy and artificial intelligence are needed to achieve an effective, near-instant, response. The goal is boost phase or early ascent phase intercept. Destroying an enemy missile over enemy territory, especially if it is armed with a weapon of mass destruction, is a very good thing.

...

All of this is within reach to defend two of the world’s great cities, and other national infrastructure. It adds a critical early layer of defense for the United States. It puts us and our allies in the favorable position of devoting defense resources to protect civilians, their workplaces, and their homes. And the technology developed and matured in this effort is readily usable for many other purposes.

How much longer do we want to watch North Korea and endure impotent frustration?

What Do We Do About North Korea? Deterrence by Denial Is the Answer

19fortyfive.com · by Wallace Gregson · October 4, 2022

We’re into that part of North Korea Outrage response where we all agree that their actions were irresponsible, provocative, dangerous, and unacceptable. The problem is what to do about it.

North Korea is protected in more ways than any other nation. They are useful to China and Russia as a buffer. They serve Russia and China as a useful irritant to the United States, South Korea, Japan and perhaps others. Russia and China will continue to provide support, even if limited. North Korea is incredibly mountainous, with limited rail and road networks, honeycombed with underground tunnels, buried fiber optic cables, and protected spaces. Pyongyang’s subway is so deeply underground that a secondary purpose is clear. No extensive industrial infrastructure presents itself to attack. Even though their army has real issues, including malnutrition limiting the stature of the soldiers, they can be ferocious in their defense because they have no choice. The whole country is an ugly place for ground combat, even if U.S. sea and air superiority is assured.

Our allies and friends share our concerns. All feel the ultimate destiny of North Korea is assured. Not for nothing is it called “the impossible state”. But none wants us to force the issue or try to hasten the denouement. Those nearest North Korea would surely suffer much damage. It’s simply not worth it.

Then there is North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile arsenal. They have proven that organized crime disguised as a country, or perhaps holding a country hostage, can exploit the global black market in weapons, including nuclear technology and materials. North Korea is both a buyer and a seller. Nuclear weapons held by the world’s only hereditary communist autocracy, with little to lose compared to “normal” countries, is a powerful deterrent indeed.

In response to this most recent launch, the U.S. and our allies will likely follow our usual script. The usual condemnations will be issued. Sanctions will be declared, and imposed, described as the toughest ever. New approaches to North Korea will be mooted. “What does Kim REALLY want?” will be a popular question in some quarters. All of this will be necessary. Everybody should be heard. All possible courses of action should be examined in something this serious. But ultimately, if the past is prologue, all of this will be “gardening” in former Secretary of State Schultz’s famous metaphor. Necessary, but never complete, as the weeds grow back.

A real breakthrough would be achieving deterrence by denial. We need a comprehensive multi-domain surveillance network and ready shooters. Immediate launch detection followed by target-quality data on the missile passed to the most advantageous shooter on the network that fires autonomously or near-autonomously. Large doses of autonomy and artificial intelligence are needed to achieve an effective, near-instant, response. The goal is boost phase or early ascent phase intercept. Destroying an enemy missile over enemy territory, especially if it is armed with a weapon of mass destruction, is a very good thing.

The components of such a system would include many components that are valuable for other purposes against other foes. A constellation of the right satellites in low earth orbit, being built now, is needed. An unmanned aerial vehicle force with electro-optical and infrared sensors to reinforce our surveillance adds redundancy. Other fixed wing assets, manned and unmanned, carrying ready weapons and a master arming switch in the “armed” position, buttressed by ships and ground vehicles with the necessary high-speed weapons at the ready, all connected within an artificial-intelligence-enabled network rounds out the “deterrence by denial” force.

Hwasong-12 IRBM. Image Credit: North Korea State Media.

All of this is within reach to defend two of the world’s great cities, and other national infrastructure. It adds a critical early layer of defense for the United States. It puts us and our allies in the favorable position of devoting defense resources to protect civilians, their workplaces, and their homes. And the technology developed and matured in this effort is readily usable for many other purposes.

How much longer do we want to watch North Korea and endure impotent frustration?

Lieutenant General Wallace “Chip” Gregson joined The Roosevelt Group as a Senior Advisor after over 30 years of service in the U.S. Marine Corps. Prior to retirement, Chip served as the Assistant Secretary of Defense, Asian and Pacific Security Affairs. He also served as Commanding General of Marine Corps Forces Pacific and Marine Corps Forces Central Command, where he led and managed over 70,000 Marines and Sailors in the Middle East, Afghanistan, East Africa, Asia, and the United States.

19fortyfive.com · by Wallace Gregson · October 4, 2022

2. North Korea fires 2 ballistic missiles toward sea

Gives new meaning to "keep up the fire."

Note the multiple firing locations. Are they trying to create some kind of targeting dilemma for us? I think they will sorely mistaken if they think so.

North Korea fires 2 ballistic missiles toward sea

militarytimes.com · by Hyung-Jin Kim, The Associated Press · October 6, 2022

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea launched two ballistic missiles toward its eastern waters on Thursday, as the United States redeployed one of its aircraft carriers near the Korean Peninsula in response to the North’s recent launch of a powerful missile over Japan.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement the launches were made 22 minutes apart from the North’s capital region on Thursday morning.

North Korea sends missile soaring over Japan in escalation

The launch is the fifth round of weapons tests by North Korea in the past 10 days.

It said South Korea has boosted its surveillance posture and maintains a readiness in close coordination with the United States.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also confirmed the North Korean missile launches, saying the weapons firings are “absolutely intolerable.”

The launches Thursday were North Korea’s sixth round of weapons firings in less than two weeks, which has prompted condemnation from the United States and other countries.

North Korea on Tuesday fired an intermediate-range missile over Japan for the first time in five years, forcing the Japanese government to issue evacuation alerts and halt trains.

It was North Korea’s most provocative weapons demonstration in years. Experts said the weapon was likely a Hwasong-12 missile capable of reaching the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam and beyond.

Thursday’s launches came as the U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan returned to waters east of South Korea in what South Korea’s military called an attempt to demonstrate the allies’ “firm will” to counter North’s continued provocations and threats.

The carrier was in the area last week as part of drills between South Korea and the United States and the allies’ other training involving Japan. North Korea considers such U.S.-led drills near the peninsula as an invasion rehearsal.

The United States and South Korea have also been responding to North Korean tests with their own live-fire drills that have so far involved land-to-land ballistic missiles and precision-guided bombs dropped from fighter jets. But one of the tit-for-tat launches nearly caused catastrophe early Wednesday when a malfunctioning South Korean Hyumoo-2 missile flipped shortly after liftoff and crashed into an air force base in the eastern coastal city of Gangneung. South Korea’s military said no one was hurt from the crash and civilian facilities weren’t affected.

After Tuesday’s launch, the United States, Britain, France, Albania, Norway and Ireland called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council.

North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement Thursday that it strongly condemns “the Korean People’s Army on South Korea-U.S. joint drills escalating the military tensions on the Korean Peninsula.”

North Korea carried out a record number of missile tests this year amid long-stalled diplomacy with the United States. Observers say North Korea aims to expand its nuclear arsenal to boost its leverage in future negotiations with the United States.

Associated Press writer Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo contributed to this story.

3. Latest DPR Korea missile launch risks escalating tensions, Security Council hears

Latest DPR Korea missile launch risks escalating tensions, Security Council hears

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129282

5 October 2022

Peace and Security

The international community must step up efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons in the wake of the latest firing of a ballistic missile by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), a senior UN official told the Security Council on Wednesday.

Assistant-Secretary-General Khaled Khiari briefed ambassadors on the UN’s response to the incident and its concern over the humanitarian situation in the country, more commonly known as North Korea.

The long-range ballistic missile was launched from the northern province of Jagang on Monday morning, local time, and covered a range of 4,500 km, reaching roughly 970 km at its height.

This marked the first time the DPRK has flown a missile over Japan since 15 September, 2017.

UN chief’s condemnation

Mr. Khiari recalled that the UN Secretary-General has strongly condemned the launch.

“This was a reckless act and a clear violation of relevant Security Council resolutions. This launch risks triggering a significant escalation of tensions in the region and beyond. It is of serious concern that the DPRK has again disregarded any consideration for international flight or maritime safety,” he said.

UN chief António Guterres urged the country to immediately cease any further destabilising acts.

He has also appealed for the DPRK to resume dialogue towards the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

New law a concern

Mr. Khiari spoke about other troubling developments as North Korea “launched systems with the apparent characteristics of short-range ballistic missiles” on four recent occasions.

Last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that there were indications that the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site remained active and prepared to support a nuclear test.

The IAEA continued to observe construction activities at the Yongbyon nuclear facilities, as well as indications that the five-megawatt nuclear reactor was operating.

Furthermore, the UN Secretary-General has also expressed deep concern over the DPRK’s adoption of a new law on nuclear policy.

“While some States continue to rely on nuclear weapons in their security policies, nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to humanity. Their continued existence heightens the risk of unintended escalation or miscalculation. We must strengthen our efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons,” said Mr. Khiari.

Allow humanitarian aid

At the same time, the UN chief also remains concerned about the humanitarian situation in the DPRK, he added.

The UN system, in coordination with international and aid partners, is ready to send staff and assistance to help the Government address medical and humanitarian needs, including those related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“To allow for a timely and effective response, we reiterate our call for the unimpeded entry of international staff and humanitarian supplies. We also acknowledge the work of Member States toward resolving the banking channel for humanitarian operations,” said Mr. Khiari.

He concluded by underlining that the Council’s unity in this matter “is essential to ease tensions, overcome the diplomatic impasse and avoid a negative action-reaction cycle.”

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4. North Korea's Hwasong-12 Missile Test Over Japan Must Be Punished

Buce Klingner is another expert who you should pay attention to.

The U.S. should improve the missile defense of the American homeland and augment regional ballistic missile defenses, complete modernization programs for U.S. nuclear forces, and affirm its extended deterrence guarantee to South Korea and Japan. For their part, South Korea and Japan should continue to augment their missile defenses, enhance counter-strike capabilities, and take steps to improve bilateral security cooperation with each other as well as the United States and other regional security partners.

...

Pyongyang continues to reject all allied requests for negotiations on denuclearization, arms control, tension reduction, or confidence-building measures. As such, the United States, South Korea, and Japan must take appropriate measures to protect their national security by augmenting and improving their deterrent and defense capabilities.

While all the experts make important recommendations about deterrence and defense (with which I agree) I will continue to beat the drum that the only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. A free and unified Korea or in short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

I will not call for regime change - though I think we must nurture and support any internal resistance elements. Any change to the regime must come from within. But unlike all the other recent regime change scenarios there is international legitimacy dating back to 1948 in the UN that there should be a free and unified korea.

We need to take a human rights upfront approach, employing a sophisticated influence campaign to undermine the regime, and pursue a free and unified Korea

North Korea's Hwasong-12 Missile Test Over Japan Must Be Punished

19fortyfive.com · by Bruce Klingner · October 5, 2022

North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launch – its first over Japan since 2017 – is another escalation in provocations and reflects the regime’s continued defiance of UN requirements that it abandon its nuclear and missile programs. Rather than intimidating the United States and its allies, Pyongyang’s action will only buttress ongoing deterrence initiatives.

The missile was most likely the nuclear-capable Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which can reach American bases on Guam. This would be the fifth successful Hwasong-12 flights, including two previous overflights of Japan in 2017.

After the collapse of the U.S.-North Korea summit in 2019, Pyongyang resumed missile launches at an exceptionally high rate. This was the 39th North Korean ballistic missile launch this year, all of which violate UN Security Council resolutions. Since January, Pyongyang has ratcheted up its missile provocations by launching intermediate-range and intercontinental-range missiles.

Experts and officials debate the intended “signal” and the timing of North Korean nuclear and missile events, overlooking the fact that they’re part of a decades-long effort to develop a nuclear war-fighting capability. Some experts describe North Korean provocations as responses to U.S. or South Korean actions, thus mitigating Pyongyang’s violations of UN resolutions and threatening behavior.

North Korean missile launches can serve several concurrent objectives – testing new weapons systems, forming a part of routine military training, exercising the war plan Kim Jong-un implemented after assuming power a decade ago, sending a message of resolve to the North Korean populace, and serving as an effort to intimidate Washington and Seoul.

Pyongyang’s actions, coupled with statements by its senior leadership, affirm enduring regime themes of resistance to outside pressure, rejection of denuclearization, and dismissal of offers of economic benefits. They also affirm that its nuclear weapons are for both deterrence and offensive purposes, including threats of preemptive nuclear attack.

Pyongyang may be inching toward conducting its 7th nuclear test, an ICBM overflight of Japan, or demonstrating a multiple-warhead ICBM capability. Any of these would significantly escalate regional tensions. However, the regime will likely wait until after China’s mid-October communist party congress so as to not anger its ally.

China and Russia have repeatedly shown themselves to be part of the problem rather than part of the solution. Both countries prevented UN Security Council action, dismissed evidence of North Korean violations, turned a blind eye to violations committed by Chinese and Russian entities, and called for U.S. and South Korean restraint after North Korean provocations and deadly attacks.

Previous North Korean missile overflights of Japan triggered Tokyo to implement and accelerate extensive ballistic missile defense programs. This most recent flight could be a catalyst for Tokyo to prioritize construction of additional Aegis-capable ships or even to rethink its cancellation of the Aegis Ashore program. The North Korea missile launch will affirm growing Japanese public support for increased defense spending and counter-strike capabilities against North Korean missiles.

Some experts advocate abandoning efforts at North Korean denuclearization and instead seek arms-control agreements. However, North Korean denuclearization is not only a U.S. diplomatic proposal, but is required under 11 UN resolutions as well as U.S. law (the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act).

To abandon denuclearization as the final objective would also undermine the Non-Proliferation Treaty and decades of U.S. non-proliferation policy. Moreover, the first four of eight failed international nuclear agreements with North Korea were arms-control attempts to cap the regime’s nuclear program.

Pyongyang’s latest provocation will only strengthen South Korea’s resolve to defend its sovereignty despite intimidation from North Korea and China. Since the inauguration of President Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea and the US have responded to North Korean provocations with displays of military strength, either missile launches or combined air force bombing drills. Washington has pledged to resume rotational deployments of strategic assets (bombers, dual-capable aircraft, or aircraft carriers), which have been curtailed since 2018.

Though stymied at the U.N. by Chinese and Russian obstructionism, the United States can and should lead an international effort to hold Pyongyang and other violators accountable. Washington can use existing authorities to take greater punitive action against violators. However, successive presidential administrations have refrained from fully enforcing U.S. laws, including against Chinese banks committing money-laundering crimes in the U.S. financial system.

Pyongyang continues to reject all allied requests for negotiations on denuclearization, arms control, tension reduction, or confidence-building measures. As such, the United States, South Korea, and Japan must take appropriate measures to protect their national security by augmenting and improving their deterrent and defense capabilities.

North Korea wheeling out new Hwasong-17 ICBM. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

The U.S. should improve the missile defense of the American homeland and augment regional ballistic missile defenses, complete modernization programs for U.S. nuclear forces, and affirm its extended deterrence guarantee to South Korea and Japan. For their part, South Korea and Japan should continue to augment their missile defenses, enhance counter-strike capabilities, and take steps to improve bilateral security cooperation with each other as well as the United States and other regional security partners.

Bruce Klingner specializes in Korean and Japanese affairs as the senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center. Klingner’s analysis and writing about North Korea, South Korea and Japan, as well as related issues, are informed by his 20 years of service at the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency. Klingner, who joined Heritage in 2007, has testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

19fortyfive.com · by Bruce Klingner · October 5, 2022

5. U.S. slams Beijing and Moscow after North Korea fires more missiles following UN meeting

We must call them out. Someday maybe they will be held accountable (though that is probably a fantasy I know). We must document all their behavior to demonstrate they are not responsible members of the international community.

U.S. slams Beijing and Moscow after North Korea fires more missiles following UN meeting

Axios · by Rebecca Falconer · October 6, 2022

The U.S. ambassador to the UN accused Beijing and Moscow of "enabling" North Korea's military after it fired two more ballistic missiles on Thursday following a Security Council meeting on the country's recent launches.

Why it matters: Thursday's launch was the sixth in 12 days, occurring after the U.S. redeployed an aircraft carrier off the Korean peninsula.

The big picture: The U.S. and several allies called for the emergency UN Security Council meeting due to Pyongyang conducting its longest-range ballistic missile test ever on Tuesday, sending the missile flying over Japan — prompting Japanese officials to issue an evacuation warning.

The U.S. and South Korean military held live-fire drills in response to Pyongyang's first missile launch over Japan since 2017.
After the U.S. repositioned the USS Ronald Reagan off the Korean peninsula, Pyongyang fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea on Thursday, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff and Japan's government.

Driving the news: While the Biden administration called the missile test over Japan "dangerous and reckless" and a "clear violation" of Security Council resolutions, fellow permanent Security Council members China and Russia opposed calling the meeting — which ended with no solution.

Chinese and Russian officials accused Washington at the meeting of provoking the launches with military exercises.

What they're saying: Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said after the latest missiles were fired that "the two Council members that are blocking us from taking action are enabling North Korea."

Photo: Linda Thomas-Greenfield/Twitter

State of play: Tokyo lodged a "vehement protest" with North Korea over Thursday's missile tests through official channels in Beijing.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters launching six missiles in such a short period "absolutely cannot be tolerated," per Reuters.

Meanwhile, the North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement it "strongly condemns the U.S." and its allies for calling the Security Council meeting and claimed the repositioning of the USS Ronald Reagan was "a serious threat to the stability of the situation on the Korean peninsula and in its vicinity."

The Ministry claimed firing the latest missiles was "just counteraction" for the U.S.-South Korean military drills.

Between the lines: North Korea's "consistent and persistent claims" that its missile launches are in response to joint U.S.-South Korea military drills form part of Pyongyang's "long running strategy of establishing equivalence between their illicit provocations" and the U.S.-South Korea drills, said Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute of Policy Studies in Seoul, per the Washington Post.

The latest North Korean Foreign Ministry statement "echoes precisely the talking points intended to inculcate the perception that the drills and provocations are equivalent, when in fact they are not," Go added.
South Korean Defense Ministry spokesperson Moon Hong Sik said Pyongyang's spate of recent launches indicate an "urgency to meet" North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un's weapons development goals, AP reports.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Axios · by Rebecca Falconer · October 6, 2022

6. N. Korea rebukes redeployment of U.S. aircraft carrier to East Sea

Be afraid, be very afraid. The USS Ronald Reagan can reach out and touch you wherever you might be Mr. Kim.

(LEAD) N. Korea rebukes redeployment of U.S. aircraft carrier to East Sea | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · October 6, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with details)

SEOUL, Oct. 6 (Yonhap) -- North Korea condemned the United States on Thursday for redeploying a U.S. aircraft carrier to the waters east of South Korea, saying the move poses a "grave" threat to stability in the region.

The North's foreign ministry made the condemnation in a public notice, a day after the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier returned to waters near the Korean Peninsula for a joint exercise with South Korea and Japan following the North's firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) earlier this week.

North Korea is "watching the U.S. posing a serious threat to the stability of the situation on the Korean peninsula and in its vicinity by redeploying the carrier task force in the waters off the peninsula," the ministry said in the statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The redeployment came after Pyongyang fired a ballistic missile over Japan on Tuesday, its first IRBM launch in eight months. The missile launch is widely viewed as the North's protest against Seoul and Washington's latest joint exercises.

The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier left the waters last week after it engaged in a bilateral naval exercise with South Korea and then a trilateral drill also involving Japan.

North Korea also criticized the U.S. and like-minded countries for their bid to punish its "counteraction measures" against the allies' drills through the U.N. Security Council (UNSC).

The 15-member council had an emergency session Wednesday (U.S. time) to discuss the problem of the North's latest provocation but failed to reach a consensus.

Instead, South Korea, Japan, the U.S. and some other Western members of the council issued a statement condemning the North's latest IRBM launch.

Earlier in the day, North Korea staged yet another provocation by firing two short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea.

The South Korean government pledged to stand united with the international community to sternly deal with North Korea's provocations and military threats.

"North Korea should be clearly aware that its pursuit of nuclear weapons is rather detrimental to the country's security and economy," an official at Seoul's unification ministry told reporters.

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · October 6, 2022

7. S. Korean, U.S., Japanese nuclear envoys condemn N. Korea's missile provocation

Although Ambassador Kim is doing double duty as Ambassador to Indonesia and as US Special Representative to north Korea, the recent crises illustrates why it is very useful to have him in the region and in nearly the same time zone as Japan and Korea so that he can effectively deal with his counterparts.

S. Korean, U.S., Japanese nuclear envoys condemn N. Korea's missile provocation | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 6, 2022

SEOUL, Oct. 6 (Yonhap) -- Top South Korean, U.S. and Japanese nuclear envoys strongly denounced North Korea's recent back-to-back missile provocations during their phone talks Thursday, according to Seoul's foreign ministry.

Kim Gunn, special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs, and his American counterpart, Sung Kim, voiced "serious concerns" over Pyongyang's test-firing of two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) earlier in the day. The provocation came two days after the launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) over Japan.

The two sides called on the North to immediately cease its provocations and condemned the latest salvo of ballistic missiles as a clear violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions, the ministry said in a statement.

The South Korean envoy held separate phone talks with his Japanese counterpart Takehiro Funakoshi.

The three officials agreed to step up bilateral and trilateral cooperation to respond sternly against the North's nuclear and missile threats, it added.

Concerns have also been growing that Pyongyang could conduct another nuclear test in the near future.

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 6, 2022

8. 112 (II), THE PROBLEM OF THE INDEPENDENCE OF KOREA

I harp on a free and unified Korea so I thought it might be useful to look at the modern history and demands for such from the United Nations/international community.

NOVEMBER 14, 1947

112 (II), THE PROBLEM OF THE INDEPENDENCE OF KOREA

This document was made possible with support from the Leon Levy Foundation

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/117705

Inasmuch as the Korean question which is before the General Assembly is primarily a matter for the Korean people itself and concerns its freedom and independence, and

Recognizing that this question cannot be correctly and fairly resolved without the participation of representatives of the indigenous population,

The General Assembly

1. Resolves that elected representatives of the Korean people be invited to take part in the consideration of the question;

2. Further resolves that in order to facilitate and expedite such participation and to observe that the Korean representatives are in fact duly elected by the Korean people and not mere appointees by military authorities in Korea, there be forthwith established a United Nations Temporary Commission on Korea, to be present in Korea, with right to travel, observe and consult throughout Korea.

The General Assembly,

Recognizing the urgent and rightful claims to independence of the people of Korea;

Believing that the national independence of Korea should be re-established and all occupying forces then withdrawn at the earliest practicable date;

Recalling its previous conclusion that the freedom and independence of the Korean people cannot be correctly or fairly resolved without the participation of representatives of the Korean people, and its decision to establish a United Nations Temporary Commission on Korea (hereinafter called the "Commission") for the purpose of facilitating and expediting such participation by elected representatives of the Korean people,

1.Decides that the Commission shall consist of representatives of Australia, Canada, China, El Salvador, France, India, Philippines, Syria, Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic;

2.Recommends that the elections be held not later than 31 March 1948 on the basis of adult suffrage and by secret ballot to choose representatives with whom the Commission may consult regarding the prompt attainment of the freedom and independence of the Korean people and which representatives, constituting a National Assembly, may establish a National Government of Korea. The number of representatives from each voting area or zone should be proportionate to the population, and the elections should be under the observation of the Commission;

3. Further recommends that as soon as possible after the elections, the National Assembly should convene and form a National Government and notify the Commission of its formation;

4. Further recommends that immediately upon the establishment of a National Government, that Government should, in consultation with the Commission: (a) constitute its own national security forces and dissolve all military or semi military formations not included therein: (b) take over the functions of government from the military commands and civilian authorities of north and south Korea, and (c) arrange with the occupying Powers for the complete withdrawal from Korea of their armed forces as early as practicable and if possible within ninety days;

5. Resolves that the Commission shall facilitate and expedite the fulfilment of the foregoing programme for the attainment of the national independence of Korea and withdrawal of occupying forces, taking into account its observations and consultations in Korea. The Commission shall report, with its conclusions, to the General Assembly and may consult with the Interim Committee (if one be established) with respect to the application of this resolution in the light of developments;

6. Calls upon the Member States concerned to afford every assistance and facility to the Commission in the fulfilment of its responsibilities;

7. Calls upon all Members of the United Nations to refrain from interfering in the affairs of the Korean people during the interim period preparatory to the establishment of Korean independence, except in pursuance of the decisions of the General Assembly; and thereafter, to refrain completely from any and all acts derogatory to the independence and sovereignty of Korea.

Hundred and twelfth plenary meeting,

14 November 1947.

9. UN Security Council splits, again, over North Korea missiles

UN Security Council splits, again, over North Korea missiles

By ELLEN KNICKMEYER, Associated Press

wral.com · by WRAL · October 5, 2022

Debate over how to handle a North Korean ballistic missile launch over Japanese territory split an already deeply fractured U.N. Security Council on Wednesday, with Russia and China insisting that U.S.-led military exercises in the region had provoked North Korea into acting.

Wednesday’s session ended with no agreement on next steps, despite warnings from the U.S. and its allies that the council’s inability to reach consensus on North Korea’s record number of missile launches this year was emboldening North Korea and undermining the authority of the United Nations' most powerful body.

”This council should be mindful that it is being tested and its credibility is at stake. This council should act, and produce an action that restores its credibility,” said Hiroshi Minami, Japan's deputy representative to the U.N. and one of those unsuccessfully urging the council back into its formerly unified stand over North Korea’s launches.

North Korea’s missile flight Tuesday was its longest-range weapons test ever, a nuclear-capable ballistic missile that soared over Japan and had enough punch to reach the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam and beyond. It forced the Japanese government to issue evacuation alerts and halt trains.

The U.N. said the North Korea’s unprecedented number of ballistic missile launches this year, now numbering more than 40, comes as North Korea also appears to be moving toward a seventh test nuclear blast. Early Thursday, North Korea launched two ballistic missiles toward its eastern waters just 22 minutes apart, officials said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is pushing to develop a fully fledged nuclear arsenal capable of threatening the U.S. mainland and the territory of U.S. allies, with a goal of wresting concessions from those countries, some experts say.

Tuesday's launch was the first that Kim has aimed over Japan since 2017. It came within days of a U.S.-led military exercise in the Sea of Japan with allies Japan and South Korea. The exercise included a nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft carrier.

Russia’s deputy U.N. representative, Anna Evstigneeva, insisted to Security Council members that it was the “irresponsibility” of that U.S.-led exercise, along with growing U.S. alliances with partners in the Asia-Pacific region, that prompted North Korea’s action.

China’s deputy U.N. representative, Geng Shuang, depicted the matter as a confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea, and urged a more conciliatory approach by Washington.

Wednesday’s session ended only with a vague call for more discussion on the matter. It served as the latest example of a growing polarization pitting Russia and China against fellow permanent Security Council members the United States, United Kingdom and France.

Brought to the forefront by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s military assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region and the U.S. response to it, and other matters, the divide has paralyzed the Security Council on many key actions. That’s because all five permanent members have the power to veto council actions.

The Security Council imposed sanctions after North Korea’s first nuclear test explosion in 2006, and tightened them over the years seeking to rein in its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and cut off funding.

In May, however, China and Russia blocked a Security Council resolution that would have toughened sanctions over the missile launches, in the first serious rift on the council over the sanctions against North Korea.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., told Security Council members Wednesday that “two permanent members of the Security Council have enabled Kim Jong Un.”

Past missile launches this year had clearly been launched without any concurrent U.S. military exercises or any other clear triggers, Thomas-Greenfield said, calling North Korea's a “self-initiated escalation.”

“We won’t tolerate any country blaming our defensive actions…as somehow the inherent cause of these threats,” she said. She added, “The United States will not stand by as the DPRK directly threatens” the U.S. or its allies.

wral.com · by WRAL · October 5, 2022

10. US accuses China, Russia of enabling North Korea's Kim Jong Un

They are complicit in not only the regime's nuclear and missile development but also in north Korean human rights abuses.

US accuses China, Russia of enabling North Korea's Kim Jong Un

By Hermes Auto The Straits Times3 min

View Original

North Korea has for years been banned from conducting nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches by the Security Council. PHOTO: AFP

NEW YORK - The United States accused China and Russia on Wednesday of enabling North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by protecting Pyongyang from attempts to strengthen UN Security Council sanctions imposed over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes.

"The DPRK (North Korea) has enjoyed blanket protection from two members of this council," US Ambassador to the United Nations, Ms Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said. "In short, two permanent members of the Security Council have enabled Kim Jong Un."

The 15-member council met on Wednesday on North Korea after nuclear-armed North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile on Tuesday that soared over Japan for the first time in five years and prompting a warning for residents there to take cover.

China and Russia did not want a public council meeting, arguing that it would not be conducive to easing the situation.

After the meeting on Wednesday, nine Security Council members - the United States, Britain, France, Albania, Brazil, India, Ireland, Norway and United Arab Emirates - condemned North Korea's missile launch in a joint statement.

China's deputy UN ambassador, Mr Geng Shuang, said the Security Council needed to play a constructive role "instead of relying solely on strong rhetoric or pressure."

"Discussions and deliberations should contribute to a detente, rather than fuelling escalation. They should promote the resumption of dialogue instead of widening differences and forge unity instead of creating divisions," he said.

In May, China and Russia vetoed a US-led push to impose more UN sanctions on North Korea over its renewed ballistic missile launches, publicly splitting the UN Security Council for the first time since it started punishing Pyongyang in 2006.

Russia's deputy UN ambassador, Ms Anna Evstigneeva, told the Security Council that "introducing new sanctions against DPRK is a dead end" and brings "zero result."

"We are convinced that the UN and Security Council mechanisms need to be used to support the inter-Korean dialogue and multilateral negotiations rather than becoming an impediment to them," she said.

North Korea has for years been banned from conducting nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches by the Security Council, which has strengthened sanctions on Pyongyang over the years to try and cut off funding for those programmes.

In recent years, veto powers China and Russia have suggested UN sanctions on North Korea be eased for humanitarian purposes and to entice Pyongyang back to stalled international talks aimed at persuading Mr Kim to denuclearise.

"This is a clear effort by China and Russia to reward DPRK for their bad actions and cannot be taken seriously by this council," said Ms Thomas-Greenfield, referring to North Korea's formal name - the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

China and Russia blamed joint military exercises by the United States and South Korea for provoking North Korea.

Ms Thomas-Greenfield rejected the remarks, saying there is "no equivalency between these two activities." REUTERS

11. Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test during China’s Congress?

A good question. This could be a test of their alliance and an indicator of whether it is still closer than lips and teeth. and the ability of the PRC/CCP to influence KJU.

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test during China’s Congress?

Al Jazeera English4 min

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When North Korea carried out its last nuclear test on September 3, 2017, China’s President Xi Jinping was preparing to host the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa at a summit meant to burnish his image as a global statesperson ahead of a critical Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress.

The explosion from the underground detonation — Pyongyang’s sixth such test — triggered an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 that shook homes along the North Korea-China border and revived fears of nuclear contamination in the area. It also shifted the slopes of the mountain where North Korea’s underground test sites were located by up to 3.5 metres (11.5 feet).

The test, which Pyongyang declared a “perfect success” and said involved a hydrogen bomb, capped months of accelerating weapons launches, including that of long-range missiles capable of hitting the continental United States.

Analysts in China and the US immediately condemned the atomic test as an “insult” to Beijing, which has long been North Korea’s chief ally and its primary trade partner, as well as a “diplomatic embarrassment” for Xi, who at the time was set to be confirmed for a second term as the Communist Party’s leader.

China responded by joining US-led United Nations Security Council sanctions that choked off North Korea’s fuel supplies and ordered the return home of some 100,000 North Korean workers whose labour overseas was funding their government’s weapons programme.

But five years on, North Korea’s military ambitions have only grown.

Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, has accelerated the pace of his country’s nuclear and missiles weapons development this year, personally overseeing the launch of hypersonic and intercontinental ballistic missiles, and enacting a new law that allows for preemptive atomic strikes if an imminent attack against North Korean strategic assets and its leadership is detected.

Among North Korea watchers, there is now a sense of déjà vu as warnings of a seventh North Korean nuclear test intensify just as China’s ruling Communist Party prepares for its five-yearly Congress this month, where Xi is expected to be appointed to an unprecedented third term. Last week, South Korea’s spy agency told the country’s legislators that the window for the new atomic test may be between October 16 — the first day some 2,300 Communist Party delegates meet in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People — and November 7, when the US holds its midterm elections.

The South Korean spy agency’s assessment initially prompted incredulity among some analysts.

“If Kim Jong Un were to carry out this test during the Communist Party Congress, it would be considered a real slap against China,” said Einar Tangen, a Beijing-based analyst who noted that it was only last week that the two countries had resumed freight train services following a five-month suspension due to North Korea’s COVID-19 outbreak. “To the extent that they do it, it would be more around the US elections because, North Korea is more concerned about a US response at this moment,” he said, referring to Kim’s longstanding demands on Washington to lift punishing international sanctions.

Others, however, say Kim’s only consideration is achieving his objective of an operational nuclear missile, which he claims is the only deterrent against “hostile forces”.

Turning a blind eye

This view gained further credence on Tuesday when North Korea carried out its longest-range missile test yet, sending a projectile soaring over Japan and triggering warning sirens in northern parts of the neighbouring country. The last time Pyongyang fired a missile over Japan was also in 2017, about a week before it tested its hydrogen bomb.

On Thursday, it launched two short-range missiles in a response, it said, to US and South Korean military drills.

“It has been expected that North Korea will try to refrain from provocations until the CCP Congress ends. That expectation has been shattered now with North Korea’s Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile test,” said Ellen Kim, senior fellow at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, referring to the missile over Japan. “North Korea does not appear to care about China’s most important political event this year any more, demonstrating Pyongyang’s unpredictability again.”

Analysts were also divided about whether and how China would respond in the event of a seventh North Korean nuclear test.

Jaechun Kim, professor of international relations at the Sogang University in Seoul, noted Beijing was opposed to North Korea’s testing of nuclear weapons because it could “destabilise the security situation in Northeast Asia” and provide a reason for the US to move strategic military assets to the region, including returning tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea, where it has had military bases and troops since the end of the Korean War in 1953.

“China is not happy with the Russian war in Ukraine. They don’t want another headache in Northeast Asia,” he said, especially as tensions rise with the US over the self-ruled island of Taiwan.

But for Sung-yoon Lee, professor at the Fletcher School of Tufts University, it is precisely the global tensions amid the war in Ukraine that may hold China back on North Korea.

Lee believes a North Korean nuclear test may be likely even earlier than the CCP Congress, perhaps around October 10, the anniversary of the founding of North Korea’s Workers Party. He noted that China has failed to take action against North Korea despite a record number of weapons tests this year.

In May, Beijing, along with Russia, vetoed a US-sponsored resolution for tighter UN sanctions on North Korea.

“China will issue a statement of regret,” Lee said. “North Korea has blatantly violated 10 UN Security Council resolutions banning it from developing and testing ballistic missiles, as well as nuclear weapons. And what has China done? What has Russia done?

“They’ve turned a blind eye to it, there’s not been a single new UN sanctions resolution. So North Korea knows it can do these things with impunity.”

12. Mint Explainer: The message in missile North Korea fired over Japan

It is as simple as this:

Experts speculate that North Korea is looking to modernise and boost its attack capabilities and then force America and South Korea to the negotiating table.

Political warfare, blackmail diplomacy,and advanced warfighting strategies that are mutually supporting and reinforcing.

Mint Explainer: The message in missile North Korea fired over Japan

Livemint · October 5, 2022

North Korea has just launched a nuclear-capable missile over Japan for the first time in five years. Since the start of this year, the rogue nuclear state has unleashed a barrage of missile tests in a worrying display of its military capabilities with some believing that a nuclear test is imminent. Mint breaks down the developments in North Korea’s nuclear program:

How did North Korea acquire its weapons?

The country’s history with nuclear power goes back to the 1950’s when the Soviet Union gave North Korea nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. The country developed a weapons program in secrecy during the 1970s and 1980s despite joining international frameworks like the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Pakistan played a crucial role in this process and provided nuclear designs and technology in exchange for help with its missile program. The program came in the international spotlight after the International Atomic Energy Agency accused the country of lying to its technicians and developing plutonium for nuclear weapons. In 1994, the US intelligence agencies argued that Pyongyang had enough plutonium for a nuclear bomb. This spiralled into a series of crises that were occasionally resolved through diplomacy with parties like the United States and South Korea before North Korea resumed testing again. The country also conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 and has conducted six so far.

Why Japan Didn't Try To Intercept The North Korean Ballistic Missile

Japan can shoot down intermediate range ballistic missiles, but there are good reasons for not trying to do so under various circumstances.

thedrive.com · by Howard Altman · October 5, 2022

Japan has the ability to shoot down an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) like the Hwasong-12 fired off by North Korea on Oct. 4th and flew over Japan, prompting warnings for people to seek shelter and temporarily halted trains. Yet, the powers that be in Tokyo opted not to. Here's why.

It is one thing to have the capability to intercept an incoming IRBM. But actually firing an interceptor at one launched by North Korea, something that has never happened, raises a lot of issues, David Shank, a retired Army colonel and former commandant of the Army Air Defense Artillery School at Ft. Sill, Oklahoma, told The War Zone Tuesday morning.

“In my opinion, there is no reason to engage a ballistic missile if it's going to land in the Pacific Ocean,” said Shank, who has co-authored papers for the National Institute for Public Policy on missile defense.

Shank said that there are a wide array of space-, sea- and ground-based radars and other sensors that can quickly detect such a launch and determine its general trajectory and altitude.

How Japan detects and reacts to a ballistic missile launch. (Japanese Defense Ministry graphic)

The trajectory and altitude of a ballistic missile launch can be recognized “fairly quickly, within the first five minutes,” said Shank, with those radars and other sensors, powered by artificial intelligence, updating the track along the way.

Monday’s launch, which took place at 7:22 a.m. Tokyo time, lasted about 22 minutes, Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada told reporters.

It flew “about 4,600 km (almost 2,900 miles) at a maximum altitude of about 1,000 km (about 620 miles), and passed over Aomori Prefecture from about 7:28 a.m. to 7:29 a.m.,” he said. “Later, at around 7:44, it is estimated that it fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone, about 3,200 km (nearly 2,000 miles) east of Japan.”

In this case, Japan did not engage the North Korean IRBM because the JSDF - using “various radars of the Self-Defense Forces” - confirmed it posed no risk of landing in Japan, Hamada said.

“Since we judged that there was no risk that the missile would come to our country, we did not take any measures to destroy the ballistic missile, based on Article 82-3 of the Self-Defense Forces Law.”

That law spells out how and when the JSDF can launch an intercept, with the recommendation of the defense minister and the approval of the prime minister.

Know When To Hold 'Em

Shank gave four reasons for not wanting to fire an interceptor in a situation like Monday.

The first is that firing an intercept “could escalate the situation” when the landing point was somewhere in the Pacific Ocean.

The second is that “an engagement would demonstrate U.S. and Japanese capabilities (ie., early warning and when a system such as an Aegis cruiser or destroyer would engage a target).”

The third is that a miss could cause “great concern among Americans, the Japanese, other allies and partners around the world, and give North Korea the narrative momentum.”

The fourth "is that an engagement over a population center or other critical infrastructure” could cause damage “due to falling debris from an engagement.”

Kim Jong Un inspecting an HS-12 and one being launched. (KCNA)

Japan has two ways of shooting down ballistic missiles. These include ship-based SM-3 interceptors capable of broad area defense via midcourse interception — while the missile is cruising towards its target at very high altitudes. The other is the Patriot (PAC-3 MSE) missile, which is capable of intercepting some ballistic missiles during the terminal stages of their flight as they descend toward their targets at very high speed.

Shank was far less optimistic about the effectiveness of the Patriot system when it comes to Japan’s missile defense arsenal.

“The SM-3, in this case, is the only capable system available to defeat an IRBM,” he said. The Patriot system “has a chance, but a very low probability of a kill.”

The Patriot is known to be better suited for intercepting shorter-range ballistic missiles during the final phase of their flight and does not feature the large area defensive capabilities as a midcourse interceptor like the SM-3.

“The SM-3 is responsible for midcourse defense and the Patriot PAC-3 for terminal defense,” Maj. Gen. Hiroyuki Sugai, the Japan Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) attache in Washington D.C., told The War Zone. “Each covers a different area. Generally speaking, midcourse defense covers a large area, so Aegis ships can intercept a large area.”

Japan Remains Confident

The Japan Self Defense Forces (JSDF) is “confident in our efforts” to "intercept" an IRBM like the nuclear-capable Hwasong-12, Sugai told The War Zone Tuesday morning.

The Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Interceptor gives Japan the ability to defend against exactly these kinds of attacks and updates to the type's design bring even more capabilities.

A Raytheon Standard Missile-3 interceptor. (Raytheon photo)

The SM-3 interceptors are enabled by ballistic missile defense-capable baselines of the Aegis Weapon System, using a hit-to-kill kinetic kill vehicle.

Currently, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, or JMSDF, Aegis fleet comprises two Maya class, two Atago class, and four Kongō class destroyers. The latest Maya class warships are subvariants of the Atago class, which in turn evolved from the Kongō class, a Japanese derivative of the U.S. Navy’s Arleigh Burke class destroyer.

Sugai would not comment on the operational status of the newer SM-3 Block IIA interceptors he said Japan began purchasing in 2017. They offer a wider engagement envelope than currently fielded SM-3 variants and are thus better able to tackle a wider range of missile threats. This missile is a joint development effort between the U.S. and Japan.

Japan had previously abandoned a land-based arrangement from which to deploy SM-3 interceptors.

Work on the planned pair of land-based Aegis Ashore systems was suspended in 2020, with officials citing amid technical issues, rising costs, and domestic criticism. The latter included concerns that debris from intercepted missiles could land on Japanese territory and cause damage or injury, which threatened to jeopardize testing of the missile portion of the system. There has also been significant public concern about the potential health impacts of the radiation from the Aegis Ashore system’s powerful radars.

Japan, meanwhile, is looking to boost its fleet of Aegis-equipped, ballistic missile defense-capable vessels.

The Aegis-equipped Maya, the lead ship of the class of destroyers of the same name. Japan Ministry of Defense

It has plans to build two huge new warships. The as-yet-unnamed missile defense ships are expected to have a standard displacement of around 20,000 tons — more than twice as much as the current Aegis-equipped Maya class destroyers — making them potentially the biggest Japanese surface combatants since World War II. You can read much more about that here.

In addition to the Japanese systems, the U.S. deploys SM-3s aboard some Aegis-equipped destroyers and cruisers. The U.S. also maintains Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems in South Korea and Guam. This is also a terminal intercept system but with far great capabilities than Patriot and is uniquely suited to defend specific areas against IRBMs.

Muted Response

Neither the U.S. nor Japan launched an inceptor against the North Korean missile. But the U.S. and its allies, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) did take action in the wake of that launch.

On Wednesday, Korean Standard Time, the U.S. and South Korea "fired four ground-to-ground missiles into the East Sea on Wednesday in joint drills, a day after North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) launch," the Yonhap News Agency reported, citing the South's military.

"The two sides each launched two Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles, which precisely hit mock targets and demonstrated the allies' capability to deter further provocations," Yonhap reported, citing the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff.

However, one of those missiles misfired, setting off explosions at the Gangneung Air Base.

A day before, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and ROK airmen conducted a joint exercise over the West Sea on Oct. 4 Korean Standard Time “to showcase combined deterrent and dynamic strike capabilities while demonstrating our nation’s bilateral interoperability. During the exercise, they conducted a live Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) strike” at a firing range on the uninhabited Jikdo Island.

After North Korea launched a ballistic missile over Japan, U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons from the 8th Fighter Wing carried out a live Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) strike with Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) F-15Ks from the 11th Fighter Wing. (ROKAF photo)

In addition, U.S. Marine Corps F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jets joined Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) fighters in a bilateral exercise over the Sea of Japan on Oct. 4.

While both Japan and the U.S. claim they have the ability to intercept a North Korean IRBM, it’s never happened in a real-world launch and, as David Shank pointed out, there are many reasons to keep that powder dry. Missile defense is not the shield many perceive it to be either. Many things have to work perfectly for it to work and while testing has been persistent and encouraging in some ways, there are questions as to how well they would perform under real-world circumstances. This is especially true if multiple missiles were launched at a target at once. You can read more about this reality in this past feature of ours.

But at some point, there may come a time when a kinetic response is required in the wake of a missile launch and many believe denying North Korea these tests kinetically would be a key deterrent in keeping them from happening in the first place. This is especially true when it comes to sending missiles over Japan and the real dangers that are involved in such operations.

For now, it seems, like pretty much everything else related to the North Korean situation, Japan and the U.S. are locked into a status quo when it comes to attempting to intercept the Kim Regime's ballistic missile tests.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

thedrive.com · by Howard Altman · October 5, 2022

14. The problem with tyrants like Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin

Excerpts:

I understand the desire, on both the left and the right, for “a diplomatic solution.” I understand why many people believe that Mr. Putin must want an “offramp” — because that’s what they’d want if they were in his place.

But nothing he has said or done to date indicates that’s true.

And if he finds that his threats are causing the West to retreat, would he be satisfied — or emboldened?

If he sees that Western leaders are giving appeasement a chance, why would he not continue to advance, probing with his spear so long as he feels mush, not steel? Why would he end a war he believes he is winning?

And what lessons will the despotic rulers of North Korea, Iran and China take away based on our actions or inactions, the risks we take and the risks we avoid? Because let me remind you, they are not like us.

The problem with tyrants like Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin

They're not like us

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

OPINION:

We’re inclined to believe that those who rule nations, however despotic they may be, are not so different from us. Surely they weigh costs and benefits, are open to compromise, and prefer peace to war. Does the evidence support this belief? I don’t think so.

Recall President Donald Trump’s approach to Kim Jong-un. He told the North Korean dictator that, if he’d only adopt more moderate policies, he could have “prosperity like he has never seen” and become “the hero of his people.” Mr. Trump communicated, too, that if Mr. Kim declined this offer, he might find American missiles raining down on his head.

Wouldn’t you have been tempted by that carrot and frightened by that stick? Sure. But Mr. Kim is not like you.

Similarly, President Barack Obama offered Iran’s theocrats respect, power and lucre. He asked only that they pledge to delay — not end — their nuclear weapons program.

He didn’t understand that, for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, “Death to Israel!” and “Death to America!” are not just slogans. They are the goals of the revolution to which he has dedicated his life. He will do whatever is necessary to achieve these goals — including, at this moment, murdering, torturing and imprisoning Iranian women who have had quite enough of his soul-crushing interpretation of Islamic law.

President Biden and his advisers have denounced Mr. Khamenei’s brutality. But they continue to offer him billions of dollars to agree to a watered-down version of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that won’t seriously impede the regime’s nuclear ambitions. It will, however, finance terrorism abroad and atrocities at home. So, why doesn’t Mr. Khamenei take the deal?

He may think he can still get more. Or he may not want even to appear to be on the same page with satanic Americans. He’s not like us and he wouldn’t want anyone to think he is.

Turn next to Vladimir Putin. As I’ve long argued, he fancies himself a latter-day czar. His goal is to restore the Russian empire, which, in the bellicose Kremlin speech he gave last week, he called “great historical Russia.”

He had been making progress toward this goal. In 2008, he cut two provinces from Georgia. In 2014, he seized Crimea from Ukraine and began an insurgency in Donbas. Belarus and Armenia have become Russian satellites.

Back in February, many analysts doubted he’d invade Ukraine because saber rattling alone would almost certainly have resulted in restrictions on Ukraine’s sovereignty — a clear win for him.

When he did send tanks over the border, many analysts expected only a “limited incursion” that the U.S. and its allies could earnestly deplore and then rapidly forget.

But it turned out that Mr. Putin was no longer content with salami-slicing. He believed — as did most Western military analysts — that his troops would easily overrun the Ukrainian army and subdue the Ukrainian people who, he insists, are nothing more than disobedient little brothers who deserve to be punished for refusing to return to the Fatherland.

Instead, of course, Ukrainians have fought, with astonishing courage and skill, to defend their land and independence. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a comedian turned politician, emerged as their inspiring leader.

In his most recent Kremlin speech, Mr. Putin announced that he is annexing Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — Ukrainian territories where he staged fraudulent plebiscites and where his forces are, at this moment, losing ground.

He also gave vent to grievances he has been nursing for years while gazing at the Black Sea from his Italianate palace.

He denounced “the ruling circles of the so-called West” as “the enemy.” He accused “the Anglo-Saxons” of sabotaging “the Nord Stream international gas pipelines.” (My guess: He blew them up himself so he can allege that he’s been directly attacked by the U.S. and/or NATO. He may also be contemplating additional sabotage of undersea infrastructure.)

He recited standard leftist dogma about slavery, genocide, “Western racists,” the American “neocolonial system,” “totalitarianism, despotism, and apartheid.” For good measure, he threw in “the plunder of India, of Africa, the wars of England and France against China.” He said the U.S. “occupies” Germany, Japan and South Korea.

Then, reaching out to Western conservatives, he added: “Do we really want … it drilled into children in our schools … that there are supposedly genders besides women and men, and [children to be] offered the chance to undergo sex change operations?” If you’re so credulous as to believe Vladimir Putin is the man to lead the counterrevolution against Wokeism, there’s a bridge over the Dnieper River whose purchase I can facilitate for you.

Most ominously, Mr. Putin declared that the territories he is annexing are now Russian lands, implying he might use nuclear weapons to defend them. He claimed that America’s use of such weapons in 1945 had “created a precedent.”

I understand the desire, on both the left and the right, for “a diplomatic solution.” I understand why many people believe that Mr. Putin must want an “offramp” — because that’s what they’d want if they were in his place.

But nothing he has said or done to date indicates that’s true.

And if he finds that his threats are causing the West to retreat, would he be satisfied — or emboldened?

If he sees that Western leaders are giving appeasement a chance, why would he not continue to advance, probing with his spear so long as he feels mush, not steel? Why would he end a war he believes he is winning?

And what lessons will the despotic rulers of North Korea, Iran and China take away based on our actions or inactions, the risks we take and the risks we avoid? Because let me remind you, they are not like us.

• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for The Washington Times.

Correction: In a previous version of the column, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un‘s name was misspelled.

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washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

15. 12 N.K. warplanes fly in formation, apparently stage firing drills: S. Korean military

Good response by the ROKAF. If they had crossed the border we would have some South Korean aces today.

We can play this game all day, week, month, year with north Korea. We show them every day that their political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and advanced warfighting strategies will fail. And we can sustain our military efforts far longer than the regime can.

(LEAD) 12 N.K. warplanes fly in formation, apparently stage firing drills: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 6, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES with more details from 4th para; ADDS photo)

SEOUL, Oct. 6 (Yonhap) -- Twelve North Korean military aircraft flew in formation and presumably conducted a firing exercise Thursday, Seoul officials said, in apparent protest over recent military drills between South Korea and the United States.

The group of eight fighter jets and four bombers staged the formation flight north of the inter-Korean air boundary at around 2 p.m., and they were thought to have conducted air-to-surface firing drills, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).

Some 30 South Korean fighter jets were immediately deployed to the area in an "overwhelming" response to the flight, which is a move unseen over the past year, the JCS said.

The South's Air Force scrambled the jets as the North's warplanes moved south of the Special Reconnaissance Line, which Seoul has drawn just north of the inter-Korean boundary for security purposes.

The North's provocative move came after Seoul and Washington have recently conducted air, ground and naval drills in response to a series of North Korean missile launches.

Following the North's intermediate-range ballistic missile launch Tuesday, the South and the U.S. staged joint air drills with a South Korean F-15K firing two JADAM precision bombs.

On the ground, the allies fired a total of four ground-to-ground missiles into the East Sea.

In addition, the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier returned to the waters east of the peninsula Wednesday to stage a trilateral naval exercise with the South and Japan.

The carrier strike group left the waters last week following a bilateral naval exercise between the South and the U.S., and then a trilateral one among the two allies and Japan.

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 6, 2022

16. North Korea Test-Fires Two Short-Range Ballistic Missiles Off Its Coast

But we do not have to be "gnawed by uncertainty." We recognize the regime's strategy, we understand it, Professor Lee is exposing it below, and we can and must attack it (with information and action to demonstrate to KJU that it is a failing strategy)

Excerpts:

The recent missile barrage is a predictable trajectory of psychological manipulation by North Korea, allowing the Kim regime to show South Korea, Japan and ultimately the U.S. that it has the ability to hit them with pinpoint accuracy, said Lee Sung-yoon, a Korea expert at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.

“Graduated escalation instills in its target gnawing uncertainty,” Prof. Lee said. “The short-range missiles are a prelude to a greater provocation already planned.”

The escalation in North Korean provocations is unlikely to stop. North Korea in the coming weeks could conduct its first nuclear test in five years, American and South Korean officials have said. Separately, recent activity at Pyongyang’s main naval base, observed in satellite imagery, suggests a submarine-launched ballistic missile could soon be in the works, the military in Seoul said.

North Korea Test-Fires Two Short-Range Ballistic Missiles Off Its Coast

The test marks Kim Jong Un regime’s sixth weapons launch in 12 days

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-test-fires-two-short-range-ballistic-missiles-off-its-east-coast-11665014035?st=t5pw7ttm9tp2c4q&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

By Timothy W. MartinFollow

and Dasl YoonFollow

Updated Oct. 6, 2022 7:11 am ET

SEOUL—North Korea test-fired two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast Thursday, shortly after the U.S. said at the United Nations that Pyongyang is feeling emboldened.

The Thursday test marked the Kim Jong Un regime’s sixth weapons launch in 12 days, adding to a historic year of missile tests.

The two missiles were fired between 6:01 a.m. and 6:23 a.m. Thursday local time from the Samsok area in Pyongyang, South Korea’s military said. One missile reached an altitude of about 62 miles and traveled 217 miles, Japan’s Defense Ministry said, with the other flying at an altitude of 31 miles but traveling about 500 miles.

Following the missile test, 12 North Korean warplanes flew in formation near the inter-Korean border around 2 p.m. local time in rare air-to-surface exercises, according to Seoul’s military, which called it an act of protest. South Korea “promptly responded” by dispatching around 30 jet fighters, but Seoul’s military didn’t specify where they flew or whether they confronted the North Korean formation.

At an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting the prior day, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said China and Russia had gone out of their way to justify North Korea’s repeated provocations and block any attempt to penalize them. Beijing and Moscow support relaxing penalties against Pyongyang.

North Korea “has enjoyed blanket protection” from Russia and China, Ms. Thomas-Greenfield said. “Pyongyang clearly feels emboldened.”

The United Nations Security Council met on Wednesday to discuss a ballistic missile test by North Korea earlier in the week.

PHOTO: BEBETO MATTHEWS/ASSOCIATED PRESS

At the U.N. meeting, China and Russia reiterated their viewpoint that the Security Council shouldn’t turn to pressure to resolve the North Korea issue and urged dialogue. Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador, Anna Evstigneeva, said new sanctions are a dead end and would produce zero results.

The meeting was follow-up to the Kim regime’s intermediate-range ballistic missile test Tuesday, which traveled over Japan, the first to do so in five years and a major provocation. Japan issued emergency alerts asking citizens to take shelter.

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