ON-FARM THOUGHTS: Who’s Gonna Fill Their Shoes?

by Larry Wegner, MFGA Board Alumni/Wall of Fame Inductee

“Who’s gonna fill their shoes”, is a famous tribute to dearly departed and famed country music radio heroes by country music superstar George Jones.

But this song title could very well be our beef industry asking the same legitimate question right now as we have seen a large exodus of producers in the cow-calf and back grounding segments of our industry.

Recent January 2024 numbers have come in at 6,180 beef producers in Manitoba down from 10,685, 20 years ago. I do hope those numbers are correct. But with the considerable number of herd dispersals in the last three years, I can only hope. Many of the bred cows from the sales have gone back into the existing herd and many of those producers marketed their heifers as feeder stock. Total beef production is down a little due to the larger size of the carcasses that are fed out now and the high number of heifers in the feed yards.

The most impactful thing on the landscape is that many of the pastures and hay fields that were used for cattle are now or have been broken up for annual crop production. Many of the producers have left the industry, some prompted by fulfilling their goal of wanting to retire with some cash in their pockets after working long and hard to keep their industry and way of life going. The older producers are leaving the industry and many of the existing operations are at capacity already. I have met a few young producers that want to build a beef operation, but land values are a major hold back to start, grow and expand any beef operation.

There have been several cow/calf ranches that have downsized in the last five years to take advantage of the higher and more stable annual crop production by converting forage land to annual crop production. Some of these producers might step back up and increase their cow herds again, only time will tell. Additionally, there seems to be a movement among a group of young producers coming back to existing family beef operations to re-join the family operation.

In these cases, the generational farm is an opportunity to gain experience and increase beef production. The recent decline in annual crop returns has re- opened the door of opportunity for these operations to increase numbers or bring back the beef operation to the family farm.

So the question does circle around “Who’s gonna fill their shoes?”

And then, when we get the opportunity to circle back in beef’s favour, drought factors in. We all know that farming is best with water, the more the better. The dry times we are experiencing in the province extend well beyond our Manitoba borders in all directions. I found this web page on The North America Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/NADM/Home.aspx It is released every three months. It opened my eyes to see how far north and south is covered in this drought. Lands stretching from the boreal forest of Northern Canada to the jungles of Mexico and everywhere in between is in some type or level of drought.

Experts are pointing to dry times as the reason we saw massive forest fires to the North and other global impacts such as the Panama Canal being restricted on shipping use due to shortage of water. For a closer look at water resources at home and to get a better handle on water resources and water forecasts for farms and communities in the Assiniboine River Basin and the Pembina Valley Watershed, check out the MFGA Aquanty Model and Forecasting Tool at https://mfga.net/aquanty-project

For farmers like many of us, it's one of those chicken and egg things again. The market signals are telling us to expand our operations. But the drought is punching us right in the gut and telling us to contract our herds and manage with limited forage supplies. I could take a shot in the dark and tell you which way to go, but as my wife tells me, I am usually wrong. So, it is totally your guess which way to go.

What we do know is this: It will rain again. We must be set up to capture as much precipitation as we can. We need to make plans at this time of year to deal with the dry conditions. Preparations like setting up a grazing plan, planting some acres of annual crop/cover crops to be used for winter feed or setting aside as emergency pasture if needed. For those crop plans, we know that annuals make better use of limited moisture. In fact, warm season annuals make excellent use of limited moisture and provide late-season feed. Seed some cool season annuals in early spring and then seed some in late spring/early summer, this will help spread out your window for harvest and hedge your bet on moisture uncertainty.

If there is one thing that I hope you have done in the last few years is that I hope you have left enough forage behind to keep the ground covered. Having the ground covered will keep the soil cooler in the summer heat and soil warmer when it is cooler weather. The soil cover or litter also helps slow down the rain run off when it does rain, by acting like a sponge. If you see bare soil, it is costing you one way or another.

Now is the time to start planning your feed inventory for the upcoming year for summer and next winter. As you manage your operations, you need to match forage production to livestock numbers. There is only two ways to deal with feed if there is a shortage:

1. Increase forage production by planting annuals, renting more pasture/hay land, or buying in feed

2. Decrease the herd numbers.

We all have the group we do not want sell, but we have to be honest with our selves: Do we feel this group are the ones we want to build our herd from? If you have a cow/calf herd, you will have a group of prime age breeding females, a group of mature cows and a group of breeding heifers. That was the hard part. Now design what to do next with a work forward plan and a target date for moisture needed for feed and the herd health. If nothing by that day, it’s time to activate Plan B. Only you can make these calls. Now is the time to make the action plan for your operation to use if the rain does not come.

With our plan in hand, we watch and adjust as needed, and we need to be flexible to look and plan ahead and adjust or replan as required. We cannot change the past; we can learn from it going forward. With the increase in cattle prices, you might think hard on selling if that is needed. This may be a chance to capture some equity from your operation. Do your budget over two-year blocks and if you decide to borrow money to feed the herd next winter you need to be prepared as to what to do if the drought does not break? Only you and your family can answer this question. Include your whole family in these decisions as they are all part of the operation. It always amazed me how my wife, Rosemary and my sons Max and Herb brought forward points of view that consistently saw a totally different way of dealing with whatever we were facing and dealing with. And onward we would go based on their thoughts and decision support.

A few weeks ago, Cover & Co had a zoom call with producer panelists who use cover crops. The starting point for the panel discussion was what annual crop could a producer grow and make a good profit on. One of the options was growing a diverse cover crop that used warm and cool crop species and grazing it. It has been a while since grazing a crop was a profitable choice. The choice of what we do is ours, sometimes we just need to be challenged to reach new levels. Use all the resources around to open your eyes to different ideas to solving your feed issues.

I know BCRC has several calculators on their web page to work through these and several other scenarios for the upcoming year, they also have articles of what other producers are doing. Look at the resources Manitoba Agriculture has online or reach out to one of their specialists. Now as we steam into the wide open spring window, this is the time to work out your plans for the many different ways to maintain the herd or become more profitable.

Remember the planning we do now hopefully will have our cows in knee high grass and our sheep in grass to their bellies this summer. Already well into April, we have endured overland flooding from the frozen soil this spring that has filled dug outs, dams and catchment areas. The soil has some moisture, though, it is still dry for this time of the year. Spring planting will start soon and spring/summer calving will be in full operation mode. I hope in this busy time you make some time to spend with your family and friends.

Larry Wegner