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March 8th is the USDA report that is going to remain the center of attention this week. Friday showed that the funds were not as short as expected, which encouraged some short covering early this morning, which we might see extended throughout the week as as traders don't want to be caught too short going into a new growing season. Export sales today were supportive, but not bullish. Today's trading session overall was positive, despite falling off of session highs especially on soybeans. Corn today closed at its highest level since February 20th.
Export inspections were announced this morning for the week ended Feb 29th, and showed all commodities landed within expectations. No changes to target expectations are expected to happen on Friday's report for corn or soybeans. Marketing year to date wheat export inspections continue to fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 50 million bushels. We will look for the USDA to cut 10 - 15 million bushels from its target on Friday. China is currently the primary taker of U.S. soybeans, as crushers there wait for the first cargoes of Brazilian new-crop supplies to arrive. U.S. shipments of soybeans to China are expected to drop off dramatically as we move into March and April as those new-crop Brazilian supplies begin to arrive. Nonetheless, the recent surge in shipments helped U.S. shipments close the deficit it had built due to disappointing shipments in the fourth quarter of last year.
We also saw an pair of export sales announced by the USDA today showing 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Taiwan during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 126,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 30,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 96,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Internationally...
Australia’s ABARES officially pegged 2023/24 wheat production at 26.0 MMT, up half a million tonnes from the December report and 2% above the 10-year average figure, but still 36% from last season.
Ukraine's military has announced it will begin pulling conscripts from the farm, a move that to this point has been avoided due to the need to produce both food for its population, and income for the war machine. Nobody is quite sure how this will ultimately effect grain production, but the timing is less than ideal as Ukraine nears the spring seeding window.
China snapped up more than 20 cargoes of feedgrains amounting to more than 1.2 MMT on the international market the past 2 weeks, Bloomberg News reported. China secured shipments of corn, sorghum & barley from suppliers including Ukraine & U.S., the report said.
Funds were thought to have been all buyers today.
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