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Quotes of the Day:
“The best way to strengthen U.S. special operations posture is a subjective matter. Options are profuse, and often complex. Some are susceptible to unilateral implementation by the Executive Branch. Congress must legislate others.
Options below are illustrative starting points for improvement. US leaders probably should consider alternatives carefully, before they approve proposals that overlook standards described.
Steps to strengthen U.S. special operations high command/control structure seem advisable at three levels: national staff, OSD/JCS staff, and a military SOF command.
A small staff, perhaps appended or reporting to the National Security Council (NSC), could ensure close and continuous special operations coordination between the Executive Branch and Congress, between top-level special operations elements in the Executive Branch, and between country teams and U.S. allies. Its director might be vested with the authority to:
--Act as the president's representative dealing with Congress on interdepartmental, interagency, and international special operations matters.
--Issue interdepartmental slash interagency special operations planning and programming guidance, then ensure compliance.
--Set interdepartmental and interagency standards coordinate, and supervise resultant policies, plans, programs, and activities worldwide.”
-John M. Collins, United States and Soviet Special Operations, p.66-67 (1987)
“All truth passes through three stages. First it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”
- Arthur Schopenhauer
"Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything.”
- George Bernard Shaw
1. North Korea Denies Sending Weapons to Russia
2. North Korea Makes Uniforms For Russian soldiers In Ukraine, Violating UN Sanctions
3. Unification Must Be Korea’s Future
4. South Korea Has Quietly Become One Of The World’s Biggest Weapons Suppliers
5. Norway bulks up artillery with new K9 howitzer agreement, tank contract set for year end (From South Korea)
6. North Korea has fired a flurry of missiles. Experts warn a nuclear test could be next
7. U.S. urges Russia, China to hold N. Korea accountable for recent provocations
8. How will US election affect Korea’s economy, security?
9. N.Korea Claims It Shot 2 Cruise Missiles into Waters off Ulsan
10. Yoon moves into new official residence
11. S. Korea mulling ways to block N.K. nuke, missile financing via cyber activities: official
12. North brags of cruise missile flights South says didn't happen
13. South Korea's military kicks off 4-day Taegeuk drills
14. In Washington we trust?
15. S. Korea to posthumously confer state medal on late US general for post war contributions
16. Ex-defense minister released after arrest in fisheries official death case
17. North Korea says recent missile tests were practice to ‘mercilessly’ strike US air bases
18. Bombers Over Korean Peninsula 'Just Part of an Exercise': Air Force Chief to VOA
1. North Korea Denies Sending Weapons to Russia
Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations.
North Korea Denies Sending Weapons to Russia
The Biden administration had claimed last week Pyongyang had shipped a significant number of artillery shells to Russia through third countries in the Middle East, North Africa
https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-denies-sending-weapons-to-russia-11667879505?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
By Timothy W. MartinFollow
Nov. 7, 2022 10:51 pm ET
SEOUL—North Korea denied providing Russia with artillery shells, days after the Biden administration alleged Pyongyang sought covert ways to supply weapons for Moscow’s war with Ukraine.
The U.S. suspects North Korea of sending a significant number of artillery shells to Russia through countries in the Middle East and North Africa, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said last week. He said American officials were still monitoring whether the shipments had been received. The potential artillery shipments aren’t expected to alter the course of the Ukraine war, Mr. Kirby said.
In September, Washington claimed that Russia could potentially purchase millions of rounds of ammunition from the Kim Jong Un regime for use on the battlefield. It wasn’t until last week that the U.S. said shipments had begun.
On Tuesday, a senior North Korean military official called the Biden administration’s claim a groundless rumor.
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“We once again make clear that we have never had ‘arms dealings’ with Russia and that we have no plan to do so in the future,” said an unnamed vice director of military affairs at the country’s defense ministry.
North Korea also denied in September that it was sending weapons to Russia, though the regime asserted its “lawful right” to export and import military equipment. United Nations sanctions prohibit the Kim regime from any arms sales. But U.N. reports have said Pyongyang has engaged in illicit weapons sales to Syria, Libya, Sudan and other conflict zones around the world.
Pyongyang has drawn closer to Moscow this year by publicly defending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. North Korea was one of only five countries last month that voted against a U.N. resolution condemning Russia for its claims of having annexed Ukrainian territory.
The Kim regime’s denial came as new satellite-imagery analysis showed a resumption of rail traffic from North Korea into Russia, according to 38 North, a website focused on the North. It couldn’t be determined what was being transported across the Korea-Russia Friendship Bridge, according to the report, which analyzed imagery from Friday. But it was the first observed activity there in years.
Last week, North Korea unleashed a wave of weapons tests, shellings and training. In back-to-back days, Pyongyang’s provocations triggered separate emergency warnings in South Korea and Japan. The Kim regime has grown angry over joint U.S.-South Korea military drills, which have increased in frequency and magnitude in the face of the rogue nation’s missile-testing activity.
On Monday, South Korea’s navy said it retrieved debris presumed to be from a ballistic missile fired by North Korea last week. One of the missiles flew south of the two Koreas’ disputed maritime border, a first-time occurrence.
Also Monday, North Korea’s military threatened to take “sustained, resolute and overwhelming” measures in response to combined exercises by Washington and Seoul, according to a report in state media. Pyongyang views the drills as rehearsals for war.
The Kim regime has conducted more missile tests in 2022 than in any other previous year. The country stands fully prepared for its seventh nuclear test, U.S. and South Korean officials have said, in what would be its first in five years.
Russia and China, at a U.N. meeting last week, accused the U.S. of instigating the North’s recent missile launches by resuming large-scale military exercises. Washington-led efforts to enforce additional sanctions on North Korea were blocked by Moscow and Beijing, who advocated for a relaxing of penalties.
At a Monday press briefing, Ned Price, a State Department spokesman, said Russia and China should hold North Korea accountable. A Kim regime that feels it “can act with impunity” works “profoundly against the interests of the global order.”
Write to Timothy W. Martin at timothy.martin@wsj.com
Appeared in the November 8, 2022, print edition as 'North Korea Denies Providing Munitions'.
2. North Korea Makes Uniforms For Russian soldiers In Ukraine, Violating UN Sanctions
But they might be extra small uniforms given the size of the average nKPA soldier.
North Korea Makes Uniforms For Russian soldiers In Ukraine, Violating UN Sanctions
eurasiareview.com · by RFA · November 8, 2022
By Hyemin Son
North Korean factories are producing uniforms for Russian soldiers – in violation of U.N. sanctions – as Moscow’s war in Ukraine begins its first full winter, sources inside North Korea told Radio Free Asia.
At least three factories in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, and more in other parts of the country, are bringing in foreign currency for the cash-strapped government by making winter uniforms, underwear, and footwear for Russian soldiers in Ukraine using Russian raw materials, the sources said.
“The export garment factory in Moranbong district in Pyongyang … has been manufacturing Russian military uniforms for about a month now,” a source in Pyongyang told RFA’s Korean service on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
“They are making winter uniforms and underwear to be used by the soldiers in the war with Ukraine. I heard from a high-ranking official at the factory that they received Russian fabric to make the uniforms, and Russia has been ordering large quantities,” he said.
RFA Korean reported that Russia’s embassy in North Korea said in a statement Friday that Moscow had an interest in purchasing clothes and shoes from Pyongyang.
“All such projects must be implemented in strict accordance with UN Security Council resolutions banning the import of certain goods from the DPRK,” the embassy said, using the acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
But U.N. Security Council Resolution 2375, adopted in September 2017, completely bans all textile exports from North Korea.
The finished uniforms produced in the three Pyongyang factories will be sent to Russia via the Tumen River-Khasan freight train, which crosses the Russo-Korean border in the northeastern part of North Korea, according to the source.
Rail freight along this route resumed on Nov. 2, after a two-year, eight-month hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Each of the Pyongyang factories employs between 500 to 1,000 garment workers, the source said.
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, export garment factories in Pyongyang earned foreign currency by exporting garments they made for companies in China and Eastern Europe, according to the source, who said that the income they earned went to fund the government through Office 39, the organization charged with procuring slush funds for the country’s leader Kim Jong Un and his family.
After the country suffered a lengthy stint of producing nothing during the pandemic, the party is eager to start up the factories again.
“As the war between Ukraine and Russia continues, the propaganda about friendship between Russia and North Korea has been intensifying,” the source said. “With these new orders for military uniforms for the Russian soldiers in Ukraine, some of the garment factories in Pyongyang are again earning foreign currency.”
Prior to the resumption of rail freight across the Russo-Korean border, the raw materials for the uniforms had to be transported by sea, a source in the city of Pyongsong in South Pyongan province, north of Pyongyang, told RFA.
A factory in Pyongsong has been receiving the raw materials over the past month by rail from the city of Rason, at North Korea’s distant northeastern tip, he said.
“North Korean trade representatives in Russia sent the materials to Rason Port from a Russian port. The raw materials are then sent to Pyongyang and Pyongsong by freight train from Tumen River station,” the second source said. That location is home to the Rason Special Economic Zone, one of several zones set up in the 1990s to promote foreign investment.
“As … freight train service between North Korea and Russia resumed on November 2nd, it’s not only that the finished uniforms are going to Russia, raw materials for new uniforms will be coming in this way,” he said.
Sources told RFA that in the Rajin area of Rason, which borders Russia, there are many export garment factories that will also produce uniforms for the Russian military. They will also make boots in the near future, sources said.
Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee and Leejin J. Chung. Written in English by Eugene Whong.
eurasiareview.com · by RFA · November 8, 2022
3. Unification Must Be Korea’s Future
Unification Must Be Korea’s Future
19fortyfive.com · by David Maxwell · November 7, 2022
Editor’s Note: These remarks were provided to freedom-loving people who gathered on the National Mall on November 5, 2022, for the K-Peace Festival organized by the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council – Washington Chapter.
Good afternoon. I would like to thank the Washington Chapter of the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council for organizing this important event and the officials representing the Republic of Korea whose vision and generosity will someday result in a United Republic of Korea.
Please accept my sincere condolences to all those who lost their lives and to those injured in Itaewon this past week. To the families and friends of those lost and hurt, the entire world mourns with you.
While that is a horrific tragedy for Korea, I know all of you here today know of another tragedy that has brought pain and suffering to the peninsula for seven decades. That is the unnatural division of Korea. I have spent much of the last four decades serving in Korea. I have learned much from the Korean soldiers with whom I served as well as many Korean people in the South from all walks of life who inspired me to understand the “Korean question” which is found in Paragraph 60 of the 1953 Armistice Agreement. The military commanders recognized that a political solution to the “Korean question” is required. That political solution is unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea.
We appear to be at a very tense point in Korea today. Kim Jong Un is executing a political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategy to subvert, undermine, and weaken the ROK, drive a wedge in the alliance, and coerce political and economic concessions from the ROK, the U.S., and the international community. On September 8th he showed his true hand, that he considers the North a nuclear state and is prepared to use nuclear weapons to achieve the seven decades old goal of his father and grandfather: that is to complete the revolution, rid the peninsula of foreign forces, and dominate all of Korea under the rule of the Guerilla Dynasty and Gulag State. There should be no doubt in our minds that Kim will do in the South what the Kim family regime has done in the north to remain in power – he will deny the human rights of all Koreans and the Koreans in the South will suffer an unbearable fate.
Some say this is an inflection point in Korean history in which a major change could be upon us. But it also could be an opportunity if freedom-loving people in Korea, the U.S., and around the world are willing to seize it.
While the ROK/U.S. combined military force is demonstrating superior deterrence and defense capabilities to prevent war and defeat the North if Kim decides to attack, now is the time to develop a new strategy that rests on the foundation of our military strength.
It is time to initiate a superior political warfare strategy. It should be based on three lines of effort: a human rights upfront approach, a comprehensive information and influence campaign, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.
Human rights are not only a moral imperative but a national security issue because Kim denies human rights to remain in power.
Kim fears the Korean people in the North more than he fears the combined ROK/U.S. military capabilities because he knows the truth is the alliance is not going to conduct an invasion of the North despite his rhetoric. And when the Korean people in the north are armed with information it is an existential threat to the Kim family regime. We can all contribute to an influence campaign by sending in massive amounts of information from news to entertainment, providing practical information to assist “entrepreneurs” in their markets as well as information on how to affect change from within. We need to provide the truth about their situation in the North, South Korea, and the world. And lastly the Korean people need to understand they deserve the universal human rights which we all have and which we take for granted.
Information will provide Kim with three choices: He will understand his strategy has failed and change his behavior. The elite and military leadership will realize the strategic failure and force Kim to change. And if Kim does not change, the Korean people in the North can bring about the ultimate change.
The pursuit of a free and unified Korea is the most important strategic long-term objective for all Korean people. We all must understand the only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program, military threats, human rights abuses, and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea. It must be secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on freedom and individual liberty, rule of law, free market economy, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. Again, a free and unified Korea or in short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
평화 “Pyeong Hwa” (Peace)
통일 “Tong Il” (Unification)
Thank you.
David Maxwell, a 1945 Contributing Editor, is a retired US Army Special Forces Colonel who has spent more than 30 years in Asia and specializes in North Korea and East Asia Security Affairs and irregular, unconventional, and political warfare. He is the Editor-in-Chief of Small Wars Journal. He is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Senior Fellow at the Global Peace Foundation (where he focuses on a free and unified Korea), and a Senior Advisor to the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy.
19fortyfive.com · by David Maxwell · November 7, 2022
4. South Korea Has Quietly Become One Of The World’s Biggest Weapons Suppliers
A member of the arsenal of democracy.
...While north Korea remains one of the world's largest illicit arms suppliers to rogue states and groups in conflict zones,
South Korea Has Quietly Become One Of The World’s Biggest Weapons Suppliers
Forbes · by Jeremy Bogaisky · November 7, 2022
A South Korean K-2 battle tank, developed by Hyundai Rotem Co., during a live-fire exercise at the Defense Expo Korea 2022 at a military base in Pocheon, South Korea, on Sept. 20.
© 2022 Bloomberg Finance LP
The international arms trade has largely flowed West to East, with North American and European countries accounting for a whopping 87% of weapons exports from 2017 to 2021.
This year South Korea has shown it’s ready to change that.
Poland agreed this summer to purchase tanks, self-propelled howitzers and light attack planes from South Korea in deals worth $8.8 billion. The two countries topped it off last week with a $3.6 billion agreement for rocket launchers. It’s the first time that a NATO member other than Turkey has turned to defense contractors outside the alliance for major weapons systems.
South Korea has quietly become a favorite of arms buyers around the world, in the culmination of a decades-long effort to protect itself from North Korea by building an indigenous arms industry with economies of scale gained from big export sales. Among international weapons suppliers, the country climbed from 31st place in 2000 to become No. 8 in the period from 2017 to 2021, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). So far this year, it’s inked $17 billion in export contracts, up from a previous record of $7 billion in 2021, which was the first year South Korea’s export deals topped imports.
President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May, set the goal last month of becoming one of the top four weapons sellers in the world. With Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine combined with China pushing its territorial claims in the South China Sea and continuing conflicts in the Middle East, South Korea will have every opportunity.
“It's a gold rush period for arms producers,” SIPRI’s Siemon Wezeman tells Forbes. “The Koreans definitely are at the right time with the right technology.”
As European countries hike defense spending to counter the Russian threat and replace weapons they’ve sent to Ukraine, U.S. officials fret that American arms makers won’t be able to meet the demand due to supply chain snags and labor shortages. South Korean weapons makers stand ready to fill the gap with systems designed for joint operations with U.S. forces, making them easy to integrate with NATO.
Among South Korea’s prime selling points are affordability and the speed with which leading arms companies such as Hanwha Defense, Korea Aerospace Industries and Hyundai Rotem can ship orders.
Lockheed Martin LMT was unable to meet Poland’s request to increase its order for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which Ukraine has used to devastating effect against Russian forces. So Poland signed a deal in October for Chunmoo multiple launch rocket systems, the first of which will be delivered as soon as 2023.
Hyundai Rotem says it can deliver 180 K2 tanks to Poland in three years, five times as many Leopard 2 tanks as Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann could produce in that span, and at roughly half the cost at 8 billion to 10 billion won ($5.7 million to $7.1 million) apiece.
And the South Korean companies have been able to expedite delivery of a small number of initial weapons systems to Poland out of production diverted from the South Korean military.
South Korea’s sales surge has also been greased by a willingness to manufacture locally and transfer technologies to buyers so they can produce the weapons themselves. It will work with Poland to set up production lines there for tanks and howitzers by 2026, with the aim of exporting to other European countries.
To developing countries, South Korea offers attractive trade finance terms, according to Wezeman. It has good warranties and after-sale service, and it doesn’t attach conditions and usage restrictions to its sales the way the U.S. does. Wezeman thinks that may have played a role in the United Arab Emirates’ decision to sign a $3.5 billion deal in January to buy Cheongung II mid-range air defense systems, South Korea’s largest overseas sale at the time and its first in the Middle East.
The recent sales boom isn’t just about affordability and availability. Poland evaluated Hanwha’s K2 Black Panther tank in a competition against the U.S. M1A2 Abrams (Poland is also buying 250 of those) and Germany’s Leopard 2. “Looking at the performance of the K2 in various tests and its technologies, it’s just as good,” Wezeman says.
South Korea began building up its arms industry in the 1970s out of a fear of abandonment by the U.S. after President Richard Nixon withdrew troops in 1969, followed by the U.S. retreat from Vietnam in 1975.
Arms makers benefited from generous loans and tax breaks and a broader industrial policy aimed at breaking into sectors with dual military-civilian uses like steelmaking, shipbuilding and electronics, says Michael Pinkston, a lecturer at Troy University in Seoul.
Korean companies advanced to producing more complicated weapons systems with designs licensed from U.S. companies and other Western allies or coproduced with them as a condition of major arms purchases. But U.S. restrictions prevented them from exporting many weapons systems with American roots.
Development of its own weapons systems, with higher local content, has coincided with a push since 2010 to tap foreign markets more aggressively.
“In the last ten or 15 years, they’ve reached levels where they’re competitive in technology with what other countries can offer,” Wezeman says.
The South Korean government is keen to expand on the recent success of the defense industry given it’s one of a few sectors where export sales have expanded this year amid an overall decline, says Won-Joon Jang, a defense analyst and research fellow at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade.
South Korean weapons systems are in the running in competitions in 10 countries that could total up to $25 billion in contracts, Jang says. Among them, Hanwha Defense is thought to be the favorite to win a contract to provide infantry fighting vehicles to the Australian army for as much as $11.5 billion. Meanwhile, Norway is set to decide between the K2 Panther and Germany’s Leopard 2 to replace its main battle tanks.
One other key way South Korea hopes to expand sales: cracking the giant U.S. market.
Korea Aerospace Industries and Lockheed Martin lost out to Boeing BA for a big U.S. Air Force contract in 2018 with their jointly produced TA-50 trainer, but they plan to bid for other USAF and Navy programs in the next few years.
Meanwhile, Hanwha Defense is teaming with Oshkosh to build a version of the former’s infantry fighting vehicle to compete to replace the Army’s Bradley troop carriers.
Seoul hopes to bring down trade barriers by striking a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement with the U.S., a type of pact Washington has with key allies that allows them to avoid “Buy American” provisions and cooperate more tightly with U.S. defense contractors.
Jang, who co-authored a paper last month on what it would take for South Korea to become one of the top four global arms merchants, says that it will be helped by the fact that a few countries in the middle of the table ahead of them – Germany, the U.K. and Italy – are expected to prioritize replenishing their arsenals rather than exports in the near term, while Russia is likely to tumble from the second spot in SIPRI’s ranking due to the fallout from its war against Ukraine.
One limiting factor for South Korea is that it’s only selling weapons, whereas a weapons purchase from the U.S. often comes as part of a broader alliance including the promise of military and political support, Wezeman says. “The Koreans won’t come to the rescue if something happens in the South China Sea or help you push your claims there. You can get that when you buy from the Americans.”
Forbes · by Jeremy Bogaisky · November 7, 2022
5. Norway bulks up artillery with new K9 howitzer agreement, tank contract set for year end (From South Korea)
Norway bulks up artillery with new K9 howitzer agreement, tank contract set for year end - Breaking Defense
Norway's investment in additional artillery systems fits in with a much larger land capability plan that will soon see the award of a production contract for new main battle tanks.
breakingdefense.com · by Tim Martin · November 7, 2022
The K9 self-propelled howitzer primarily uses 155mm ammunition and offers a range of 460Km (Photo: Finnish Army)
DUBLIN — The Norwegian Defense Material Agency (NDMA) signed off today an option with partner Hanwha Defense of South Korea for delivery of an additional four K9 Thunder 155mm self-propelled howitzers and eight more K10 ammunition resupply vehicles.
The option being exercised falls within an original 1.8 billion kroner ($180 million) contract struck between the two parties in 2017 and increases Oslo’s full K9 order to 28 systems. Similarly, procurement of K10, the supporting automated robotic unit of the K9, will rise to a total of 14 vehicles.
All deliveries are expected to take place within the next two years, according to a NDMA public affairs spokesperson.
Oslo’s decision follows Poland and Hanwha agreeing on a $2.4 billion K9 deal in August — the largest export contract for the artillery system that has also been ordered by Hanwha’s home country of South Korea as well as Turkey, India, Finland, Estonia, Australia and Egypt.
The strengthening of Norway’s artillery firepower arrives in advance of a key decision expected before the end of 2022 for acquisition of a new Main Battle Tank (MBT), a contract competition between Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, offering the Leopard 2A7, and South Korea’s Hyundai Rotem pitching the K2 Black Panther.
“Both manufacturers have delivered offers with the vehicles involved in cold winter tests in Norway last year,” the NDMA spokesperson said of the MBT competition. “It has been a thorough process so far.”
He also estimated the new MBT contract to be worth around $1-2 billion, with the Norwegian Army requirement set at 72 vehicles. Entry to service has been planned for 2025, coinciding with Leopard L2A4 retirement.
Norway plans on further increasing land capabilities through the acquisition of additional Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) ahead of the army standing up a fourth mechanized battalion, though it’s unclear exactly what type of vehicle that will be.
“Rather than simply ordering more CV-90 IFVs [already operated by Norway] the government will conduct groundwork to assess whether other options are best or buy additional CV-90s,” said the NDMA spokesperson.
The government is expected to make a recommendation on “how to move forward” with the IFV program before the end of the year, with a procurement phase potentially starting at the end of 2024, confirmed the spokesperson.
“A [request for information] was developed before the summer, with an internal evaluation being developed now,” he added.
Much interest also surrounds investment in a long range precision fires program, but procurement approval by Oslo will only be reached once NDMA carries out key activities such as market research and cost analysis.
“At that point, it will then be up to the government to make a prioritization decision or we could see an invitation to tender occur late 2023 or 2024,” added the NDMA spokesperson.
Norway’s latest future defense acquisitions document, published in April 2022, states that introduction of a new long range precision fire system is planned for 2029.
In an Oct. 11 interview with Breaking Defense, both Maj. Gen. Lars Lervik, the top Norwegian Army officer, and his Swedish counterpart Maj. Gen. Karl Engelbrektson, were unequivocal about investment in long-range fires. Lervik stated, “It’s about having range and precision, but it’s also about having volume. So that’s the trade off, at least we are looking at, you need to have some systems that can reach out, but we also need to have the volume to stay in the close fight.”
Norway’s progress with land based acquisitions is looked upon as critical to deterring or countering Russian aggression, especially within the context of the two countries sharing a 198Km border in the Arctic.
6. North Korea has fired a flurry of missiles. Experts warn a nuclear test could be next
No,no, no. The "joint exercises" are not the cause of the north's recent spate of missile tests. We must not allow ourselves to be duped by such "analysis." We must understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.
Excerpts:
The immediate trigger appears to be the joint military exercises.
However, Jay Song, an expert in Korean Studies at the University of Melbourne's Asia Institute, said it could be a build-up to a new nuclear test.
North Korea has fired a flurry of missiles. Experts warn a nuclear test could be next
ABC.net.au · November 7, 2022
North Korea is ramping up its missile launches and simulated attacks against the South, with experts warning a nuclear test may be imminent.
The isolated communist dynasty under Kim Jong Un recently passed a law enshrining the right to use pre-emptive nuclear strikes and making its status as a nuclear-armed nation "irreversible".
The latest displays of military force come as South Korea is under new leadership, with President Yoon Suk-yeol regarded as taking a more hard-line approach than his predecessor, altering the domestic politics and regional dynamics.
So how worried should we be as tensions increase on the peninsula, and what can we expect next?
What's happened in the past week?
Last Wednesday, North Korea fired 23 missiles — a record number for a single day — with one crossing the maritime border between North and South Korea for the first time.
One of the missiles crossed the Northern Limit Line between the two Koreas.(ABC News: Jarrod Fankhauser)
One missile landed less than 60 kilometres off the coastal South Korean city of Sokcho, triggering a warning for residents on nearby Ullueng island to take cover and prompting South Korea to fire back.
A day later, some residents in Japan were urged to seek shelter after North Korea fired another cluster of missiles, including a suspected failed intercontinental ballistic missile.
The North said its missiles were in response to joint military exercises between South Korea, Japan and the US called "Vigilant Storm".
North Korea described the operation as "provocative" and vowed to "smash the enemies' persistent war hysteria".
Over the weekend, Japan hosted a fleet comprising vessels from 12 nations, including Australia, amid growing tension over North Korea and increasing Chinese pressure over Taiwan.
The 2,000km altitude is known as a "lofted" trajectory, where the missile is fired high into space to avoid flying over neighbouring countries and to test the strength of warheads re-entering the atmosphere.(ABC News: Jarrod Fankhauser)
Is this a cause for concern?
Jean Lee, a policy analyst at the Wilson Center and co-host of the Lazarus Heist podcast, said the pace of North Korea's missile tests was "unprecedented".
"Kim Jong Un is on a mission to expand and diversify his weapons arsenal. And to do that, he needs to test the weapons to perfect and prove their capability," she said.
Experts say Kim Jong Un, pictured with his sister Kim Yo Jong, is unlikely to give up his nuclear ambitions.(Reuters)
"We should be worried about the ramp-up of testing. Each test gets North Korea closer to adding to an already-threatening arsenal.
"And every test runs the risk of provoking a conflict in a tense region."
North Korea expert Seong-Chang Choeng told French news service AFP that Pyongyang's missile tests were "the most aggressive and threatening armed demonstration against the South since 2010".
Jean Lee says Washington and Seoul are faced with the challenge of displaying strength without escalating tensions further.
Ms Lee said the fact one missile landed not far from South Korea's shores and sparked a retaliation from Seoul also reminded her of tensions in 2010.
Twelve years ago, South Korea conducted live-fire exercises and North Korea shelled a frontline South Korean island, with those hostilities killing four people.
Why now?
The immediate trigger appears to be the joint military exercises.
However, Jay Song, an expert in Korean Studies at the University of Melbourne's Asia Institute, said it could be a build-up to a new nuclear test.
The ramping-up of weapons testing is a concern for regional stability, experts say.(AP: Ahn Young-joon)
The last time North Korea tested a nuclear bomb was in 2017.
From a technological and scientific perspective, the time for the North to test its nuclear weaponry again appears close.
"They already have done six nuclear tests, and the next one is imminent," she said.
She said another factor was the change in South Korea's leadership.
Yoon Suk-yeol is expected to take a tougher stance on North Korea.(Pool via Reuters: Ahn Young-joon)
Stephen Nagy, a senior associate professor at Tokyo's International Christian University, pointed out Pyongyang's missiles paused during the Chinese Communist Party's Congress, but restarted in the lead-up to the US midterm elections.
"This shows they're deferring to China in efforts for some support, and they're trying to provoke the United States in many ways" in a bid to force the US to the table to resolve complicated diplomatic relations, he said.
Professor Song said the first and last chance for doing a big deal with the US reached a "tipping point" at the Hanoi Summit in 2018, but it was cut short and the door on that possibility closed.
"They're not going to go back to the negotiating table," she said.
"Kim Jong Un is never going to give up his nuclear ambition. He's already declared that — it's in the law.
"North Korea's survival mentality is that they have to really look after themselves, self-defence, and the only way to do that is to develop nuclear weapons."
North Korea has threatened Australia with "disaster" —but could its missiles reach our shores?
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Some analysts suggest North Korea's playbook has been to ratchet up provocations to get US attention, then negotiate.
But with Russia's war on Ukraine, China's tensions with Taiwan and global economic strife, getting the world's attention could be a challenge.
Professor Song said even with the latest barrage of missiles, there was a perception that this was just common practice for the North.
Meanwhile, South Koreans have been focused on a period of national mourning since the Halloween crush tragedy in Seoul.
"This time it's serious, not because of North Korea's changed position towards South Korea and the US, but because of South Korea's changed position towards North Korea," she said.
Will South Korea go nuclear?
South Korea's former president, Moon Jae-in, who was born to North Korean refugee parents, had a policy of peace, prosperity and dialogue when it came to North Korea.
Kim Jong Un and former South Korean president Moon Jae-in met in the demilitarised zone in 2018.(AP: Korea Summit Press Pool/File)
But his successor, conservative Yoon Suk-yeol, leads a more hawkish administration when it comes to the country's northern neighbour, according to Professor Song.
She said the climate in South Korea could become more unstable, and right-wing and even centrist politicians were voicing support for the idea that South Korea should arm itself with nuclear weapons.
"[This is a] really, really worrisome trend and total change from the previous administration … [which was going] nuclear free, even in terms of the energy sources there," she said.
Writing for The Diplomat last month, Dr Choeng said the significant escalation in threats from Pyongyang demonstrated the need to consider arming South Korea with nuclear weaponry, which he argued would deter the North's threats and spare nuclear war.
Professor Song said North Korea was "gambling big", and if Mr Kim deployed nuclear or even conventional weapons in a direct attack, he risked engaging the world's most powerful military in the US.
"If they attack South Korea or Japan, it's the end of their regime," she said.
Jay Song says the change of government in South Korea shifts the equation when considering regional tensions.(Supplied)
She and Professor Nagy said North Korea had refined its nuclear capabilities and wanted to test and prove its delivery methods.
Professor Nagy said there was potential for collateral damage in testing and it could be highly destabilising for the region, which could spiral into conflict.
With a military hotline between the two nations cut off, Professor Song said it was vital to open channels of communication to avoid critical miscalculations, while Ms Lee said the next steps were a delicate balancing act.
"South Korea and the United States now face the challenge of demonstrating strength without allowing the tensions to escalate," she said.
Professor Song added it was no longer a question of the North's capabilities, but managing its motivations.
"When it comes to nuclear war, the accuracy doesn't really matter," Professor Song said.
"If they hit anywhere, even in the sea, the outcome would be devastating … millions of people will die, either on the Korean peninsula or somewhere in the Pacific.
"As a South Korea citizen, I have family here in South Korea. I do really have a real concern."
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ABC.net.au · November 7, 2022
7. U.S. urges Russia, China to hold N. Korea accountable for recent provocations
Of course China and Russia need to be held accountable for their complicity in north Korean sanctions evasion.
U.S. urges Russia, China to hold N. Korea accountable for recent provocations | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 8, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Nov. 7 (Yonhap) -- A state department spokesperson called on China and Russia on Monday to hold North Korea accountable for its missile launches in violation of U.N. Security Council (UNSC) sanctions, insisting failure to do so will not be in their interest.
The call from state department press secretary Ned Price came after Moscow and Beijing blocked U.S.-led efforts to punish North Korea for its recent provocations that included the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, along with more than a dozen short and intermediate range ballistic missiles.
"The fact is that we have a slew of sanctions imposed against the DPRK," Price told a daily press briefing, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"There are a series of U.N. Security Council resolutions, with costs associated with them and measures associated with them, and we call on all U.N. member states, but especially members of the Security Council ... to uphold the principles of the U.N. Charter, the principles of the U.N. system, the tenants of the international order," he added.
The U.S. sought to impose additional sanctions on North Korea at a UNSC meeting, held Friday, noting Pyongyang has now launched 59 ballistic missiles this year, each in violation of UNSC resolutions.
The meeting, the ninth of its kind this year to be held on North Korea, ended without an agreement as China and Russia, both permanent members of the council with veto power, objected.
"Every single one of these launches threatens regional, global peace and stability and is a violation of numerous U.N. Security Council resolutions that were unanimously adopted by the council," said Price. "So, members, permanent members, especially, of the Security Council, have a special obligation."
"We will continue to engage with partners at the Security Council and continue to make the point to them both public and private that a DPRK that feels that it can act with impunity, and faces watered down condemnation from the rest of the international community is not in the interests of China. It's not in the interests of Russia," he added.
The state department spokesperson also expressed concerns over what he called North Korea's "increasingly dangerous and irresponsible rhetoric."
Pyongyang "even went so far as to describe its recent missile launches and related activities as "practice runs" for the use of tactical nuclear weapons against the ROK against the United States, as well," said Price.
ROK stands for the Republic of Korea, South Korea's official name.
Price reiterated that the U.S. continues to remain committed to engaging in "serious and sustained diplomacy" with North Korea, but said it will also continue to seek ways to prevent Pyongyang from advancing its illegal weapons programs.
"We will seek to continue to impose costs on the DPRK for its dangerous and destabilizing behavior, even as we continue to seek serious and sustained diplomacy with the DPRK," he said.
"We will continue to work closely with our allies to limit the DPRK's ability to advance its unlawful WMD and ballistic missile program that threatens regional security."
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 8, 2022
8. How will US election affect Korea’s economy, security?
Excerpts:
Apart from Korean industry, it’s unlikely that geopolitical actors such as North Korea and those related to the US-South Korea alliance will see much change given that the US’ foreign policy has bipartisan support.
“If Biden (and the Democrats) lose by a wide margin, he could make some changes in North Korean policies to seek a breakthrough. However, otherwise, there will be no big difference in security and defense after the election,” said Suh Jung-kun, a professor of political science and international relations at Kyung Hee University. “The election is not like electing a new president, who could make drastic changes in foreign and defense policies.”
How will US election affect Korea’s economy, security?
koreaherald.com · by Shin Ji-hye · November 8, 2022
As the world watches the outcome of the US midterm elections, South Korean experts say the results will bring subtle changes for Korea.
If the Republican Party prevails, President Joe Biden's economic policies with US allies may see subtle changes, but the US stance on North Korean issues is unlikely to change, experts say.
South Korea is paying special attention to the US midterm elections over whether the result could affect some of the US’ economic policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act, the US-led Chip 4 semiconductor alliance and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
Korean industry watchers expect that if the Republican Party wins, it could bring some changes to the IRA, which has hit Korean automakers hard.
The IRA, which went into effect on Aug. 16, only provides tax credits to consumers for purchasing electric vehicles assembled in North America. Korean automakers such as Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors are hit directly by the act, as they were shut out of all tax credits since the law took effect. Currently, all Hyundai and Kia EVs sold in the US are made in Korea.
Hur Joon-young, an economics professor at Sogang University, said there could be some changes in the IRA after the election.
“Some barriers could be weakened if Republicans prevail,” Hur said. “Because Republicans believe that overseas production is cheaper in terms of cost and can be beneficial to consumers.”
“Even if the Democratic Party prevails, there is also a possibility that its stance could be different from before the election. It could pay more attention to its allies rather than its voters,” he said.
However, regardless of which party wins, only a small degree of change is expected because both parties put the economy first and maintain a protectionist stance, the professor said.
The Korea International Trade Association said in its recent report that if the Republican Party wins the midterm election, it may affect the promotion of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
"If the Republican Party gains a majority in Congress, the Biden administration's policy momentum may decrease. In terms of trade policy, there may not be much change in matters that receive bipartisan support, such as checking with China, but it may affect the promotion of trade agreements such as the IPEF, which the Republican Party has a negative stance on,” senior researcher Cho Sang-hyeon said in the report.
The US-proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework was launched in May under the Biden administration. The economic initiative was launched with a total of 14 participating founding member nations among Indo-Pacific countries aimed at safeguarding against China’s economic influence. South Korea was among the 14 founding members.
Not all economic initiatives will be affected by the election results, the professor pointed out.
The US-led Chip 4 semiconductor alliance -- comprised of the US, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan -- to promote the US chip sector against China, is unlikely to be affected by the election results, as it has bipartisan support, professor Hur said.
The US proposed to strengthen the global supply chain by establishing a Chip 4 consultative body in Korea, Japan and Taiwan to strengthen its access to vital chips and weaken Chinese involvement. Taiwan and Japan have already expressed their intention to join, while Korea has yet to give an official answer. Korea, which has China as its largest trading partner, has taken a cautious stance. However, the Korean government is seen to be leaning toward participating in the alliance because industry and experts say that it is necessary to join it to secure a stable supply of semiconductor equipment.
Apart from Korean industry, it’s unlikely that geopolitical actors such as North Korea and those related to the US-South Korea alliance will see much change given that the US’ foreign policy has bipartisan support.
“If Biden (and the Democrats) lose by a wide margin, he could make some changes in North Korean policies to seek a breakthrough. However, otherwise, there will be no big difference in security and defense after the election,” said Suh Jung-kun, a professor of political science and international relations at Kyung Hee University. “The election is not like electing a new president, who could make drastic changes in foreign and defense policies.”
By Shin Ji-hye (shinjh@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Shin Ji-hye · November 8, 2022
9. N.Korea Claims It Shot 2 Cruise Missiles into Waters off Ulsan
All warfare is based on deception.
Or did the Propaganda and Agitation department make a mistake?? Were launches planned but cancelled (or failed) and the Propaganda and Agitation Department released preplanned messages?
N.Korea Claims It Shot 2 Cruise Missiles into Waters off Ulsan
english.chosun.com
November 08, 2022 13:14
North Korea on Monday claimed it fired two cruise missiles into international waters off the South Korean port city of Ulsan on Nov. 2.
At the time, the North Korean military fired a ballistic missile across the Northern Limit Line, the de facto maritime border, into the East Sea, and the South Korean Air Force fired three air-to-surface missiles across the NLL in response.
"The enemy returned the fire to the open seas of our sides... [we] made a retaliatory attack with two strategic cruiser missiles to the open sea in the waters 80 kilometers off Ulsan... with the range of 590.5 kilometers from an area of North Hamgyong Province," state media cited the North Korean Army's General Staff as saying.
It even published coordinates of a point on the high seas between Ulsan and Japan, claiming that was where the cruise missiles dropped.
But the Joint Chiefs of Staff here deny having any record of the firing. The JCS said no North Korean cruise missiles were detected either by South Korea or by the U.S.
There was certainly no official announcement here at the time. If the North's claim turns out to be true, this would raise serious questions about South Korea's defenses and how the military here handles such incidents.
A photo (left) of a missile launch purportedly taken during last week's North Korean military exercise published from the [North] Korean Central News Agency on Monday closely resembles a picture of the purported launch of a new tactical guided missile the agency already published on April 17.
But the JCS insisted it is not. "The North's claim is untrue according to analysis by South Korean and U.S. surveillance and reconnaissance assets," it said Monday. "No North Korean cruise missiles dropped into waters off Ulsan on Nov. 2."
"It was confirmed that the North fired four ballistic missiles and about 100 artillery shells on Nov. 2," a military officer here also said. "But no cruise missiles were detected at all."
The claim loses credibility in light of other tall stories published by the regime. The North Korean military command also claimed it mobilized "500 fighters of different kinds" and test-fired a ballistic missile "to verify the reliability of performance of warhead for special function paralyzing the enemy's operation commanding system."
But the North is incapable of mobilizing such a large number of fighter jets, and its jets made only 180 sorties in total, according to South Korean analysis.
The North's claim about the missile that would "paralyze" the operation command was illustrated with what is believed to be a Hwasong-15 missile.
But in fact, the North launched a Hwasong-17 missile that fizzled in mid-flight and dropped into the water.
"The announcement was carried in the Rodong Sinmun, which targets North Korean readers," a security official here said. "It's possible that they exaggerated their military accomplishments for domestic propaganda purposes."
Another possibility is that the North is intentionally spreading misinformation. On Oct. 8, the regime claimed it had conducted "massive air attack training" by mobilizing some 150 warplanes. But in fact it mobilized only about 40 aircraft, some of which crashed.
But the announcement, whether true or not, bodes ill for future provocations. On Nov. 2, a North Korean ballistic missile flew across the NLL in the direction of Ulleung Island for the first time since the Korean War. It triggered an air-raid alarm and sent islanders scurrying for shelter.
Meanwhile, the JCS says it has recovered debris from another missile, which the North fired into waters off Sokcho, Gangwon Province on Nov. 2, from the ocean floor with an unmanned underwater vehicle.
10. Yoon moves into new official residence
Impact on local traffic.
Yoon moves into new official residence
koreaherald.com · by Lee Jung-youn · November 8, 2022
Amid criticism over wasted budget and inappropriate use of manpower, President Yoon Suk-yeol and first lady Kim Kun-hee moved into the new official residence located in Hannam-dong, central Seoul, Monday, six months after Yoon's inauguration.
The presidential office said that Yoon and his wife moved from their private residence in Seocho-dong, southern Seoul, to the Hannam-dong residence on Monday.
It took nearly 10 minutes for the president to travel from his home in Seocho-dong to the presidential office in Yongsan even with traffic control, but the move to Hannam-dong may shorten the commute to five minutes, according to the presidential office.
This relocation is an extension of the Cheong Wa Dae relocation plan that Yoon promised when he was a presidential candidate.
Since the inauguration, the presidential office has been working on remodeling the Foreign Minister's official residence. But the plan led to continuous construction and remodeling plan, as the Foreign Minister’s official residence and office has to be rearranged as well, sparking criticism that public money was being wasted.
The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea refused to approve the Foreign Affairs Ministry’s additional budget plan for a new reception room at the general meeting of the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee on Monday.
The Foreign Ministry has already used over 2.6 billion won ($1.87 million) on relocating the minister’s official residence and office, which includes a budget for remodeling of new residence and office, relocation of the foreign guest reception and banquet hall, and remodeling of the reception room. The Ministry applied for another budget to cover the cost of relocating the reception room for foreign guests, and the opposition party rejected it.
The opposition party claimed that using the relocation budget as the part of Foreign Ministry budget was a way of disguising the cost of relocating the official presidential residence.
In addition, the official residences of presidential chief of staff Kim Dae-ki, and Kim Yong-hyun, head of the Presidential Security Service, also have to be relocated as they have to be available to assist the president at all times. The chief of staff will move to the official residence of the deputy commander of the US Forces Korea, while the Security Service chief will move to the residence of Commandant of the Republic of Korea Marine Corps.
Also, the main opposition party claims that the relocation of presidential residence caused the lack of manpower during the Itaewon disaster as more police officers were allocated around the new Hannam-dong presidential residence, which was vacant at the time.
Ahn Gwi-ryeong, a deputy spokesperson of Democratic Party of Korea said, "About 200 police officers were deployed to protect an empty house that the president and his wife delayed moving into,” through a written briefing on Saturday.
She continued criticizing that police personnel were fixed at the new residence in Hannam-dong, a private residence in Seocho-dong and the presidential office in Yongsan, while people in Itaewon were in need of police services.
Kim Jong-chul, deputy chief of the Presidential Security Service, denied there had been any inappropriate deployment, saying, "As I know, officers in charge of security service, who guard national facilities, are organized separately from the police who perform other duties," at the meeting of Special Committee on Budget and Accounts on Monday. Kim claimed that there is no link between the officers deployed at the facilities for the president and the Itaewon disaster.
During the parilamentary audit on the presidential office, Tuesday, Kim again denied the accusation, saying that the number of police personnel around the Hannam-dong official residence was fewer than 200.
By Lee Jung-youn (jy@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Lee Jung-youn · November 8, 2022
11. S. Korea mulling ways to block N.K. nuke, missile financing via cyber activities: official
Good. This is an important initiative.
S. Korea mulling ways to block N.K. nuke, missile financing via cyber activities: official | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · November 8, 2022
SEOUL, Nov. 8 (Yonhap) -- South Korea is considering ways to block North Korea from financing its nuclear weapons and missile program through cyberspace activities, a senior foreign ministry official said Tuesday.
The North is widely believed to have engaged in cryptocurrency theft to finance its evolving nuclear and missile programs. According to a U.N. Security Council report released in April, the North is suspected of having stolen as much as US$400 million worth of cryptocurrency in 2021.
"We plan to review and seek implementations of various measures in order to block North Korea's securing of funds for nuclear and missile development through activities in cyberspace," the official said on the customary condition of anonymity.
The official added Seoul was closely monitoring trends on North Korea's cryptocurrency theft activities through close cooperation with the United States.
odissy@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · November 8, 2022
12. North brags of cruise missile flights South says didn't happen
Monday
November 7, 2022
dictionary + A - A
North brags of cruise missile flights South says didn't happen
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/11/07/national/northKorea/North-Korea-cruise-missile-Ulsan/20221107181821103.html
The North Korean military conducts missile launches in drills held from Wednesday to Saturday in photos released by its official Rodong Sinmun on Monday. State media claimed that the “military operations” were in response to Seoul and Washington’s Vigilant Storm aerial exercise last month. [RODONG SINMUN]
North Korea said Monday that it launched two "strategic" cruise missiles into waters off South Korea's southeastern coast near Ulsan last week, which apparently were not detected by Seoul's military.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) revealed in unusual detail a series of military drills it held during a four-day period from last Wednesday to Saturday, which included testing a new long-range missile design and mobilizing 500 warplanes.
Pyongyang claimed that its "corresponding military operations" were in response to the U.S.-South Korea Vigilant Storm drill that ran from Oct. 31 to Saturday.
Details offered by the North, however, differed from information released by South Korea's military last week, and military officials in Seoul Monday were skeptical of some of Pyongyang's claims.
In an English-language report attributed to the General Staff of the Korean People's Army (KPA), the KCNA said that the North's military fired two strategic cruise missiles from North Hamgyong Province with a range of 590.5 kilometers (366.9 miles) at the open sea around 80 kilometers off the coast of Ulsan on Wednesday afternoon.
It claimed that this was in response to the "enemy" firing an "air-to-surface guided missiles and gliding guided bomb at the open sea of the DPRK side" earlier that day, referring to the acronym for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Also on Wednesday, the North's army was said to have fired "four tactical ballistic missiles loaded with dispersion warheads and underground infiltration warheads at a desert island off the West Sea Barrage" and later in the afternoon "fired 23 ground-to-air missiles while staging an exercise to annihilate air targets at different altitudes and distances."
On Wednesday, Seoul confirmed that Pyongyang fired a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the de facto maritime border for the first time since the ceasefire ending the 1950-53 Korean War. However, the KCNA report didn't make mention of this.
On Thursday, the KNCA report said its army, at the request of the Academy of Defense Science, "conducted important test-fire of ballistic missile to verify the movement reliability of a special functional warhead paralyzing the operation command system of the enemy" and fired five super-large multiple launch missiles and tactical ballistic missiles and 46 long-range multiple launch missiles into the East Sea.
On Friday, it said it conducted "a large-scale all-out combat sortie operation of the air force with 500 fighters" for three hours and 47 minutes "in order to show the will to counter the combined air drill of the enemy."
On Saturday, it simulated "a strike on the enemy's air force base" and again fired "two tactical ballistic missiles loaded with dispersion warheads and two super-large multiple launch missiles at a desert island" in the West Sea.
It also released photos of the various missile launches last week for the first time in state media.
Referring to the Vigilant Storm exercise, the KCNA report described it as "an open provocation aimed at intentionally escalating the tension in the region and a dangerous war drill of very high aggressive nature directly targeting the DPRK."
The report stressed that North Korean military drills are a "clear answer" that "the more persistently the enemies' provocative military moves continue, the more thoroughly and mercilessly the KPA will counter them."
Pyongyang's claims about the strategic cruise missiles landing in waters 80 kilometers off the coast of Ulsan raised concerns in Seoul, as it is near five metropolitan cities with a combined population of around 1.11 million people.
The South Korean military never said cruise missiles were fired into waters near Ulsan last week, leading to worries about Seoul's missile detection capabilities.
However, a South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) official said Monday said that Pyongyang's claims were not true and that such missile launches had not been detected through U.S. and South Korean military surveillance.
"According to the results of analysis of South Korea-U.S. surveillance and reconnaissance assets, [North Korea's claims] are not true," said Col. Kim Jun-rak, a JCS spokesman, in a press briefing Monday. "So far, nothing has been captured or detected by our military."
He said the South's military collected on Sunday an object believed to be the remnants of a North Korean SRBM fired on Wednesday from waters south of the NLL in the East Sea.
Last Wednesday, Seoul's military confirmed that North Korea fired three SRBMs, one of which landed 26 kilometers south of the NLL, around 57 kilometers off the coast of Sokcho in the East Sea.
The South Korean military immediately scrambled F-15K and KF-16 fighters and fired precision-guided missiles into waters north of the NLL.
The KCNA report didn't acknowledge its SRBM falling into waters south of the NLL as the cause of the confrontation last Wednesday.
On Thursday, the South's military said that North Korea's launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), believed to be a Hwasong-17, apparently ended in failure.
The KCNA report on Monday didn't specifically mention the suspected failed launch of an ICBM, nor was the Hwasong-17 detailed in its launches last Thursday.
However, the JCS response doesn't completely rule out the possibility that Seoul and Washington may have missed detection of a cruise missile, according to experts.
Some analysts say that the North's reference to a "special functional warhead paralyzing the operation command system" could refer to a testing of a potential electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, attack, where a massive burst of electromagnetic energy decimates power grids.
This comes as South Korea and the U.S. militaries believe the North has completed preparations for a seventh nuclear test.
BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]
13. South Korea's military kicks off 4-day Taegeuk drills
Keep up the fire (and the training).
Monday
November 7, 2022
dictionary + A - A
South Korea's military kicks off 4-day Taegeuk drills
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/11/07/national/defense/korea-taegeuk-taegeuk-exercise/20221107104333805.html
The emblem of South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff [YONHAP]
South Korea's military began its annual computer-simulated Taegeuk exercise Monday, officials here said, as part of efforts to hone its capabilities against North Korea's threats.
The four-day command post exercise will focus on strengthening crisis management capabilities, and the ability to transition into wartime and train operational capabilities against various threats, including those from North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The South's latest military exercise comes after the North fired more than 30 missiles into the East and Yellow Seas last week in protest against its six-day joint air drills with the United States that ended Saturday.
Earlier Monday, the North's military issued a statement that threatened to take "sustained, resolute and overwhelming" military measures against what it calls "anti-DPRK war drills" of the enemy. DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
14. In Washington we trust?
Given the politics this is understanding. KOreans are rightly worried about how foreign policy and national security commitments will be altered by the election (this one today and the next in 2024)
And unfortunately the only way to prove our commitment will be to take action at the right time.
But Korea should be reassured by the sustained commitment of US military activities over the past year to include extensions of readiness training, and short notice deployments of strategic assets to the region. While the US may seem distracted with Putin's War, Taiwan-PRC tension, and Iran, the US continues to deploy military assets in the region to support deterrence and defense.
Amnd the words of our SECDEF cannot be any more clear - if the north attacks the South the Kim family reime will cease to exist. I believe he is speaking the truth.
Tuesday
November 8, 2022
dictionary + A - A
In Washington we trust?
Nam Jeong-ho
The author is a columnist of the JoongAng Ilbo.
At the Kwanhun Club Forum on Oct. 18, an unusual development took place. U.S. Ambassador to Korea Philip Goldberg dismissed arguments from the presidential office and the People Power Party (PPP) for the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea to counter the North’s nuclear threats. “All this talk about tactical nuclear weapons, whether it comes from Putin or from Kim Jong-un, is irresponsible and dangerous and the escalation of those kinds of threats or speculation I don’t think helps the situation,” he said.
After a barrage of missile launches by North Korea, many senior members of the PPP argued that the South should have tactical nukes. Rep. Chung Jin-suk, interim leader of the PPP, Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, and former and current lawmakers Yoo Seung-min and Cho Kyung-tae have made such arguments. National security aides of the presidential office are also reviewing the possibility of redeploying tactical nuclear weapons or sharing U.S. nukes. Even President Yoon Suk-yeol did not rule out the possibility of nuclear redeployment by saying, “I am listening to various opinions in South Korea and the United States about the redeployment.”
The possibility was being seriously considered by the administration and senior politicians of the world’s 10th largest economy. But the ambassador of its main ally called the idea “irresponsible” and “dangerous.” That is tremendous disrespect. After the U.S. State Department apparently was alarmed by the seriousness of the situation, a senior official tried to calm the turbulence by saying the ambassador’s remarks were misrepresented.
Is the argument for redeployment of tactical nukes really irresponsible? It is directly related to the question of whether the South can trust America’s extended deterrence. The U.S. administration is particularly sensitive about a preemptive use of nuclear weapons and nuclear proliferation. Last November, it attempted to adopt the “No First Use” policy, in which the U.S. would not use nuclear weapons unless the enemy uses it first, but the attempt failed due to allies’ protests. The latest Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) issued at the end of last month also stresses the risks of nuclear proliferation. In this larger picture, redeployment of tactical nukes on the Korean Peninsula would be unacceptable. Therefore, the United States repeatedly stresses that it will retaliate against any attacks on South Korea, even by using nuclear weapons so that the South doesn’t have to worry about it.
And yet, many experts in South Korea are uneasy about that promise. For extended deterrence to function properly, there are three key factors. America must have the ability and will to offer the extended deterrence and the neighbors must trust it. There is no doubt about the U.S. ability to offer extended deterrence since it is the world’s strongest military power. But its will is somewhat questionable because the U.S. has acted indifferently until now.
The Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (Edscg) between Seoul and Washington was established in 2016. Over the past three years, only three meetings, including one in October, took place. The two sides had met nearly once every two years. One of the participants confessed about the meeting. “When we ask how the United States will defend South Korea, they say they cannot offer details because they are classified military secrets,” he said. “But they say that we must stop worrying and trust them.” When we do not know the substance of extended deterrence, how can we put our trust in it?
A larger concern comes two years later. The Biden administration’s pledge of extended deterrence seems genuine, but we are not sure it will work properly when a new administration arrives in two years. Currently, the popularity of the Democratic Party is lower than that of the Republican Party. In a CNN poll announced on Nov. 3 ahead of the Nov. 8 mid-term elections, 47 percent of the voters said they will cast ballots for the Democratic Party candidates while 51 percent said they will vote for the Republican Party. Furthermore, as economic recession is expected due to rapid interest rate hikes, a Republican candidate will have the high ground in the 2024 presidential election.
Among the Republican presidential prospects, former President Donald Trump is the frontrunner. Over 50 percent of voters support him. When he was in office, he demanded Seoul pay more for the U.S. deployment of strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula. A runner-up is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Although his Korean Peninsula policy is yet to be known, he will likely follow Trump’s “America First” policy, since his nickname is “Trump 2.0.” That means he will likely be passive about offering extended deterrence. No wonder the Yoon administration and PPP lawmakers are floating the ideas of redeploying tactical nukes. To quiet the South’s argument that it must arm itself with nukes, the Biden administration must convince its ally of the substance of extended deterrence.
15. S. Korea to posthumously confer state medal on late US general for post war contributions
Again, I know of no country that has more respect for allied veterans or who does more to honor them than South Korea.
And note this:
The late former general later remained in South Korea after retiring in 1954 and devoted his life to helping war orphans and excavating the remains of U.S. soldiers. He was laid to rest at the U.N. Memorial Cemetery in Busan, having passed away in July 1982.
S. Korea to posthumously confer state medal on late US general for post war contributions
The Korea Times · November 8, 2022
This photo shows late U.S. Gen. Richard Whitcomb, who served as the commander of the U.S. 2nd Logistics Support Base in Busan from 1953-54. Yonhap
South Korea announced a plan Tuesday to confer a posthumous state medal on Richard Whitcomb, a late former U.S. Army general, in recognition of his philanthropic efforts in supporting victims of the 1950-53 Korean War, the veterans affairs ministry said.
The decision to award the Mugunghwa Medal, the highest Order of Civil Merit, to Whitcomb, who served as the commander of the U.S. 2nd Logistics Support Base in Busan for two years starting in 1953, was approved by the Cabinet earlier in the day.
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo plans to present the medal to Whitcomb's family during a ceremony in Busan on Friday to commemorate the International Memorial Day for U.N. Korean War Veterans, according to the ministry.
It pointed out that Whitcomb is credited with helping Koreans and rebuilding the ravaged country in the aftermath of the war. He is especially noted for providing U.S. military supplies to Koreans affected by a major fire at Busan Station.
The late former general later remained in South Korea after retiring in 1954 and devoted his life to helping war orphans and excavating the remains of U.S. soldiers. He was laid to rest at the U.N. Memorial Cemetery in Busan, having passed away in July 1982. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · November 8, 2022
16. Ex-defense minister released after arrest in fisheries official death case
Ex-defense minister released after arrest in fisheries official death case
The Korea Times · November 8, 2022
Former Defense Minister Suh Wook enters the Seoul Central District Court, Oct. 21. Yonhap
A Seoul court approved the release of former Defense Minister Suh Wook on Tuesday, 17 days after he was arrested in connection with the 2020 death of a fisheries official at the hands of North Korea.
Suh, 59, was arrested on Oct. 22 as part of the prosecution investigation into the previous Moon Jae-in administration's alleged mishandling of the fisheries official's death near the Yellow Sea border between the two Koreas by the North's coast guard.
The Moon administration concluded at that time the official was killed while attempting to defect to the North, but critics suspected the conclusion was drawn without sufficient evidence to curry favor with Pyongyang.
Suh has been accused of having deliberately ordered the deletion of intelligence reports suggesting the fisheries official did not intend to defect to the North.
On Tuesday, the Seoul Central District Court decided in favor of Suh's request to reconsider the legality of his arrest following a court hearing a day earlier. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · November 8, 2022
17. North Korea says recent missile tests were practice to ‘mercilessly’ strike US air bases
Of all the ROK/US combined military capabilities the regime fears airpower the most. The regime (and the people) have long memories of how US airpower destroyed the north from 1950-1953. It is one of the most important themes from the Propaganda and Agitation Department.
And it is no wonder the regime would describe its training/test launches as preparation to attack airbases. This reassures the Korean people in the north.
North Korea says recent missile tests were practice to ‘mercilessly’ strike US air bases
There are roughly 28,000 U.S. troops in South Korea, and another 54,000 in Japan.
BY HALEY BRITZKY | PUBLISHED NOV 7, 2022 10:50 AM
taskandpurpose.com · by Haley Britzky · November 7, 2022
The dozens of missiles North Korea fired last week were just practice to “mercilessly” attack U.S. and South Korean air bases, the North Korean military said on Monday according to the Associated Press.
CNN reported that North Korea fired more than 80 missiles over a three-day span last week, which the regime said was in response to “open provocation” of joint U.S.-South Korea military drills.
The joint U.S. and South Korean air force exercise, “Vigilant Storm,” wrapped up on Saturday — a day later than expected because of North Korea’s tests, the AP reported. The exercise was the “largest-ever” of the annual drills, according to the AP, and “involved 240 warplanes including advanced F-35 fighter jets from both countries.” The drills ended on Saturday with a B-1B bomber flyover over South Korea, which hasn’t happened since 2017, in a show of force against North Korea.
The military drills “are a clear answer of (North Korea) that the more persistently the enemies’ provocative military moves continue, the more thoroughly and mercilessly the [Korean People’s Army] will counter them,” a statement from the General Staff of North Korea’s military said, according to the AP.
In this photo provided by South Korean Defense Ministry, two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers, top center, four South Korean Air Force F-35 fighter jets and four US Air Force F-16 fighter jets fly over South Korea Peninsula during a joint air drill called “Vigilant Storm,” in South Korea, Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022. (South Korean Defense Ministry via the Associated Press)
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North Korea’s tests included ballistic missiles to “launch strikes on enemy air bases,” ground-to-air missiles to “‘annihilate’ enemy aircraft,” and “strategic cruise missiles that fell in international waters” off of South Korea’s southeastern coast, the AP reported. But the information released on Monday made little mention of a reported intercontinental ballistic missile that North Korea attempted and failed to launch on Thursday, according to CNN.
The missile reached a top speed of Mach 15, which was not fast enough to reach “atmospheric space and travel far using its inertia,” Park Won-Gon, a professor of North Korean Studies, told CNN.
But the AP reported that experts believe other missiles launched by North Korea last week were “short-range nuclear-capable weapons that place key military targets in South Korea, including U.S. military bases there, within striking range.”
There are roughly 28,000 U.S. service members stationed in South Korea, with an additional 54,000 service members and 45,000 dependents in Japan.
A TV screen showing a news program reporting on North Korea’s missile launch at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Nov. 4, 2022. The sign reads “North Korea’s main ballistic missile range.” (Ahn Young-joon/Associated Press)
While a statement from the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said the missile tests did not “pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to our allies,” the tests were being portrayed in South Korea as a significant escalation, Bruce Bennett, a defense researcher with the RAND Corporation, told Task & Purpose last week.
“If this was purposeful by Kim, he was experimenting to see what he could get away with,” Bennett said, referring to the leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Kim Jong Un. “The South Korean response was: Not going to get away with this. If it was a purposeful action by him, the interesting question will be: So, what does he do next? Does he just let it drop or does he then choose to escalate himself and we see then some kind of pattern of escalation that develops.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met last week with the Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense, Lee Jong-sup. Austin said during a news conference on Thursday that the alliance between the U.S. and South Korea is “ironclad” and the U.S. “remains fully committed to the defense of the ROK.”
“Secretary Austin and I affirmed that any nuclear attack by the DPRK, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons, is unacceptable and [will] result in the end of Kim Jong-un regime by the overwhelming and decisive response of the alliance,” Jong-sup said on Thursday. “This is a strong warning against the DPRK.”
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taskandpurpose.com · by Haley Britzky · November 7, 2022
18. Bombers Over Korean Peninsula 'Just Part of an Exercise': Air Force Chief to VOA
My comments here. I do not think this article was edited by the Korean service of VOA. Note the use of the non-word-non-name "Un" to reference Kim Jong Un.
Excerpts:
David Maxwell, an Army veteran who was stationed in Japan and South Korea and an analyst with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told VOA the allied response to North Korea's recent aggression was "better than it has been certainly in the last five years."
"I think both the Yoon and Biden administrations are recovering from decisions made in the last administration to reduce training, as well as the effects of COVID," Maxwell said.
But the U.S.-ROK military actions did not stop South Korean press from questioning U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and South Korean Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup on the "effectiveness" of U.S. and South Korean deterrence measures last week, to which Austin replied that he believed North Korea was deterred from attacking South Korea and also from deploying a nuclear device.
According to Maxwell, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's recent missile launches are an effort to "drive a wedge in the ROK-U.S. alliance" to create dissension among politicians.
"He (Un) is trying to weaken military readiness. He is appealing to those naive pundits who think that if we just cancel exercises that he will come to the negotiating table and act like a responsible member of the international community. Nothing could be more wrong," Maxwell said.
Bombers Over Korean Peninsula 'Just Part of an Exercise': Air Force Chief to VOA
November 07, 2022 11:05 PM
voanews.com
Pentagon —
The U.S. show of force over the Korean peninsula Saturday, when two B-1B stealth bomber aircraft flew over the peninsula for the first time since 2017, was just part of a major joint exercise meant to ensure the United States has a "ready force" in the region, according to the U.S. Air Force chief of staff.
"It was all part of the Vigilant Storm exercise, an exercise that we've operated under over time," General C.Q. Brown Jr. told VOA in an exclusive interview Monday.
"This is another one of the exercises that we've done, and we'll continue to do, to ensure that readiness. We have an ironclad alliance with the Republic of Korea, and it's all just part of an exercise and our continued training," he added.
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Prior to the flight of the B-1B bombers, which U.S. officials told VOA came from Guam, North Korea fired four short-range ballistic missiles off its west coast on Saturday morning.
North Korea said Monday that its recent missile launches over the past few days were simulated strikes on South Korea and the United States as the two countries held what it called a "dangerous war drill."
SEE ALSO:
North Korea Says Launches Were Simulated Attack, as South Recovers Missile Parts
Some 240 aircraft participated in last week's joint U.S.-South Korea exercise on the peninsula, Vigilant Storm, along with thousands of U.S. and South Korean troops.
North Korea fired a daily record of 23 missiles on Wednesday, with one landing the closest to South Korea's territorial waters since the division of the Korean peninsula in 1945, according to South Korea. Air raid alarms in certain parts of South Korea and Japan sent citizens rushing to take cover after the North Korean missiles launches.
On Thursday, Pyongyang's missile launches included an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a weapon designed to carry a nuclear warhead as far as North America.
SEE ALSO:
North Korea Launches 4 Missiles
Brown called Pyongyang's recent aggressive behavior part of the "ups and downs" of missile activity from North Korea, adding that his "real focus" is on the readiness of the U.S. and South Korean forces.
Brown served two tours on the Korean peninsula and was the commander of Pacific Air Forces before assuming his role as Air Force Chief of Staff in August 2020.
After North Korea's ICBM launch on Thursday, the U.S. and South Korea extended Vigilant Storm, which was set to end Friday, for an additional day.
SEE ALSO:
US, South Korea Extend Drills Amid More North Korean Launches
David Maxwell, an Army veteran who was stationed in Japan and South Korea and an analyst with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told VOA the allied response to North Korea's recent aggression was "better than it has been certainly in the last five years."
"I think both the Yoon and Biden administrations are recovering from decisions made in the last administration to reduce training, as well as the effects of COVID," Maxwell said.
But the U.S.-ROK military actions did not stop South Korean press from questioning U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and South Korean Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup on the "effectiveness" of U.S. and South Korean deterrence measures last week, to which Austin replied that he believed North Korea was deterred from attacking South Korea and also from deploying a nuclear device.
According to Maxwell, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's recent missile launches are an effort to "drive a wedge in the ROK-U.S. alliance" to create dissension among politicians.
"He (Un) is trying to weaken military readiness. He is appealing to those naive pundits who think that if we just cancel exercises that he will come to the negotiating table and act like a responsible member of the international community. Nothing could be more wrong," Maxwell said.
voanews.com
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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