In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Peter Rutland argues that the West is losing the information war over Ukraine in part by neglecting messaging that could better appeal to the global South. Elizabeth Wishnick reports that Chinese official media portray the U.S. and NATO as the instigators. Nevertheless, Marlene Laruelle says Vladimir Putin’s war has harmed Russian policymaking in Central Asia and the Caucasus by undermining its credibility as a security guarantor. Wishnick and Cameron Carlson also find the invasion has effectively frozen Russia’s ambitions as Arctic Council chair.

While Grigore Pop-Eleches and co-authors find overall Russian support for Putin’s “special military operation” stable at about 74 percent despite campaign setbacks, a second new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo by Jean-François Ratelle finds new tensions in Russia’s North Caucasus. Russia’s elites are widely disgruntled, argues Vladimir Gel’man, but they are effectively divided and conquered by Putin. Stanislav Markus points to a mysterious string of high-profile deaths in Russia, arguing official explanations of “poor health” are not credible, and Brian Taylor sees them as “more than just randomness.” Nikolay Petrov also observes pressure on teachers and parents with changes in education.

Pavel Baev says Putin is now in a tight corner, having made himself into “the core of the war problem” with no off-ramp in sight. His response, according to Volodymyr Dubovyk, has been to double down. Yoshiko Herrera also believes Russia is “committed” to continuing the fight even as India and China express desires for de-escalation. For Robert Orttung, renewed Russian attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure this week “demonstrate [Putin’s] own weakness.” According to Olexiy Haran, seven million Ukrainian refugees have fled to Europe and six million are displaced internally. Samuel Greene writes that “a Russia that does not recognize the crimes of its distant and recent past is a Russia that will always pose a threat to its neighbors.”

Dubovyk also argues that the Biden administration and most Americans are committed to continuing to support Ukraine despite nuclear threats. Pavel Podvig explains that tactical nuclear arms are smaller nuclear weapons designed not only for the battlefield, but also to signal that “Russia is prepared to use them more widely.” Small nuclear weapons are not really capable of changing the situation on the ground, he says elsewhere, because there are no large concentrations of troops, but a larger weapon could be used to “shock Ukraine into surrender.” According to Kirill Rogov, Russia’s new invasion chief, “General Armageddon” Sergei Surovikin, shares hard-liners’ desire to mobilize reserves as “cannon fodder.”