Newsletter - December 2023

The Global Update Blog

Mastering the Art of Crude Oil Futures Trading with Three Essential Indicators

When trading crude oil futures (or any market for that matter), success hinges on the ability to read the market accurately. Indicators can be of great assistance, and the following set of indicators can be effective...


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CONSTRUCTION SPENDING REPORT

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES & ORDERS - FULL REPORT

US INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS & SERVICES

QUARTERLY FINANCIAL REPORT - MANUFACTURING, MINING, WHOLESALE...

QUARTERLY FINANCIAL REPORT - RETAIL TRADE

MONTHLY WHOLESALE TRADE: SALES & INVENTORIES

EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT

QUARTERLY SERVICES SURVEY

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX REPORT

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX REPORT

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES REPORT

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE: INVENTORIES & SALES REPORT

BUSINESS FORMATION STATISTICS

NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION REPORT

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS - MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS...

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES REPORT

CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY

ADVANCE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT

PRELIMINARY US IMPORTS FOR CONSUMPTION OF STEEL PRODUCTS

View Our Full Economic Calendar

Key Events That Moved the Market in November 2023

The following is a review of US and world events from the last month. Please be advised that this content is based upon the opinions and research of GFF Brokers and its staff and should not be treated as trade recommendations.



S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Daily Chart - November 1-30, 2023 (Source: Tradingview)


November 1

The stock market experienced a significant rally at the start of the month, driven by reassuring comments from the Federal Reserve. The Dow rose by 221 points, marking a 0.67% increase, while the Nasdaq and S&P climbed by 1.77% and 1.05%, respectively. This positive trend was influenced by a refunding announcement from the Treasury and a lower-than-expected ADP private payroll print.

 

November 2

Building on the previous day's momentum, stocks continued to climb. The Dow jumped by 564 points, the S&P rose by 1.89%, and the Nasdaq increased by 1.77%. This upward movement was largely attributed to the declining 10-year treasury yield and growing investor confidence in a rate hike-free future.

 

November 3

The week ended on a high note, marking one of the best performances in 2023 for major averages. The Dow closed 222 points higher, the S&P moved up by 0.94%, and the Nasdaq ascended by about 1.21%. This surge was partly due to the October jobs report, which fell below expectations but positively impacted market sentiments.

 

November 6

Despite a slight loss in momentum from the previous week's rally, Wall Street still saw gains. The Dow increased by 34 points (0.10%), the S&P by 0.18%, and the Nasdaq by 0.37%. Investors appeared cautious, awaiting more bullish data as upward market movement began to stagnate.

 

November 7

The major averages had a shaky start but managed to hold onto gains, continuing their winning streaks. The Nasdaq led the day with a 0.93% increase, while the S&P and Dow rose by 0.28% and 0.17% (56 points), respectively. Lower interest rates played a key role in supporting the market, with tech and consumer discretionary stocks leading the gains.

 

November 8

Stocks struggled but mostly stayed in the green. The Dow fell slightly with a 40-point deficit, while the S&P and Nasdaq saw modest gains of 0.10% and 0.11%, respectively. A positive report on Disney's earnings and subscriber growth, along with optimistic projections for the next year, helped boost its stock and the market.

 

November 9

The major averages finally saw a downturn after impressive win streaks. The Dow dropped by 223 points, and both the S&P and Nasdaq experienced losses of 0.81% and 0.82%, respectively. Despite a 7% surge in Disney stocks, it wasn't enough to keep the Dow in positive territory.

 

November 10

Wall Street bounced back from the previous day's losses, with all major averages returning to green. The Dow climbed 1.15% (391 points), the S&P by 1.56%, and the Nasdaq by 2.25%. Tech stocks played a significant role in this recovery, even as bond yields crept up but remained stable for the week.

 

November 13

Market movements were cautious as investors awaited upcoming inflation data. The Dow edged 54 points higher, but the S&P and Nasdaq fell by 0.08% and 0.30%, respectively. Concerns about U.S. credit ratings and potential government shutdowns due to political divergences influenced the market.

 

November 14

Stocks surged with lower-than-expected inflation reports. The Dow jumped 489 points, the S&P rose by 1.91%, and the Nasdaq finished 2.13% higher. This rally was driven by regained consumer confidence and the perception that interest rate hikes might not occur under the current economic conditions.

 

November 15

Following the previous day's rally, the Dow rose another 163 points, the S&P by 0.16%, and the Nasdaq by a marginal 0.03%. This continued upward trend was supported by additional cooled-off inflation data, further convincing investors that future rate hikes were unlikely.

 

November 16

The major averages paused their gains, with the Dow declining by 45 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq eked out small gains of 0.12% and 0.10%, respectively. Walmart and Cisco weighed heavily on the Dow, and the energy sector underperformed, influenced by falling crude oil prices and concerns over weaker demand.

 

November 17

The week concluded quietly but positively, with the major averages extending their 3-week win streaks and approaching 52-week highs. The Dow closed nearly flat with a 1-point rise, the S&P went up by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq by 0.03%. There was a shift in sector performance, with small-cap and cyclical stocks rising while mega-cap, tech, and consumer staples lagged.

 

November 20

Market dynamics were influenced by developments in AI, particularly benefiting Microsoft. The Dow rose by 203 points, the S&P by 0.74%, and the Nasdaq by 1.19%. High stakes in AI development, especially surrounding Open AI, played a key role in this trend.

 

November 21

Investor skepticism about the sustainability of the 4-month highs of major averages led to a decline. The Dow fell by 62 points, the S&P by 0.20%, and the Nasdaq by 0.58%. The market was awaiting a key profit report from Nvidia to determine future directions.

 

November 22

Ahead of the holiday, stocks saw modest gains despite Nvidia's drawbacks. The Dow increased by 0.53% (184 points), the S&P by 0.41%, and the Nasdaq by 0.43%. Nvidia shares dipped despite strong earnings, influenced by concerns over future demand in China.

 

November 24

The week ended with mixed results, but overall gains were achieved. The Dow rose by 117 points, the S&P by 0.06%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.12%. As November neared its end, the major averages were on track for their best trading month of the year.

 

November 27

The new week started sluggishly, with the Dow down 56 points, the S&P by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq by 0.13%. A weaker-than-expected home sales report provided some lift to stocks, but not enough to turn the tide completely.

 

November 28

A broad rally led all major averages into the green, though the momentum faded towards the close. The Dow rose by 83 points, the S&P by 0.10%, and the Nasdaq by 0.30%. Federal Reserve Chair Christopher Waller's confidence in the Fed's policy to curb inflation buoyed the markets.

 

November 29

The stocks exhibited a see-saw pattern, ending mixed by the close. The Dow was marginally up by 0.04% or 13 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq were slightly down. The major averages were heading towards their best monthly gains of the year. Remarks from Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin about rate hikes and inflation influenced the day's trading.

 

November 30

The last day of November saw stock futures dip slightly in overnight trading, following a notable high and strong monthly performance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Futures tied to the 30-stock index decreased by 25 points (0.07%), while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures slipped by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

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There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures, options and forex. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Margins are subject to change at anytime without notice. All material herein was compiled from sources considered reliable. However, there is no expressed or implied warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this material. 


HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.