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Grain activity was uneventful today on this "bonus" trading day. Pressure remains overall as weather is not a major factor and fresh fundamental news is lacking at this time. Grains saw pressure overnight with large deliveries against the March contract. We did see grains pull of the lows for today though as commodity fund activity continues to be the primary price driver.
Export sales were within expectations for all categories. Soybeans were on the low end of expectations at 5.87 mln bu. The main export window for the US is essentially closed at this point in the year, so weekly sales will likely be low moving forward.
Tomorrow afternoon’s January USDA soybean crush is expected to come in at 196.6 million bushels, down from December’s 204.3 mbu single-month record but still above 191.1 mbu in January 2023, and ahead of the Jan record from 2021 of 196.5 mbu. Trade estimates range from 194.2-199.0 mln bu.
Mid-day model runs were unchanged for South America with enough chances still present over the next two weeks to minimize any dryness concerns in Brazil. Issues remain in up to half of Paraguay and southern Argentina by the 11-15 day, according to Commodity Weather Group. Today the Buenos Aries Grains Exchange reported that 82% of the Argentine soybean crop is in normal to excellent condition. For corn, they are showing 87% in normal -excellent condition, with only 13% in poor condition. Warm/dry conditions are expected into Australian wheat planting.
Today's US Drought Monitor shows 18.09% in moderate drought or worse, compared to 16.62% last week.
Funds were thought to have been mixed.
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