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Weekly Analyst Review

15 March 2023

Bottom Line Up Front

The Free Papua Movement (OPM) was formed in 1963 in opposition to Indonesian control of the provinces of Paupa and West Paupa. OPM saw a resurgence in 2021 when they captured and killed Indonesian Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. I Gusti Putu Danny Karya Nugraha. The group is not above violent action, including murder to see their ends met.


The violent streak of OPM does not bode well for their new hostage, Philip Mark Mehrtens. On 07 February 2023, in a crime of opportunity, OPM rebels reportedly abducted Mehrtens, a Susi Air pilot from New Zealand. Mehrtens was captured after OPM set a small commercial plane on fire at the remote Paro Airport, in Nduga, Papua.


A week later, on 15 February 2023, the rebel group released a proof-of-life video and photos of Mehrtens, who appeared in good condition. The victim was shown surrounded by at least 11 fighters. The footage also included the moment the insurgents set the small aircraft on fire. While some fighters appeared to be armed with assault rifles, other indigenous rebels were armed with bows and arrows.

Less than a month later, on 10 March, 2023, OPM released a new video statement demanding that the independence of Papua be mediated by the United Nations. The militant group displayed an arsenal of weapons, and issued a warning to foreign pilots, advising them to not fly to Papua until the independence of the area is recognized. Further, it was said that the hostage, Mehrtens would be freed after Papua gains independence. Mehrtens, who still appeared to be in good health, was instructed by the militants to read the statement in the English language.


A day later, OPM followed through on their threats. A Trigana Air Boeing 737-500, with 66 people on board, originating from Jayapura and directed to Nop Goliat Dekai Airport, Dekai, Yahukimo Regency, in the mountains of Papua, was shot at during landing. On this occasion, four shots were heard.


While performing the return flight to Jayapur, the same plane was shot at again during take-off, with five shots being heard. After inspecting the aircraft in Jayapur, the police discovered that one bullet penetrated the fuselage and struck a seat, injuring a passenger.


It appears the Indonesian authorities have underestimated the lengths OPM will go to seek Independence. It should be noted that the Indonesian authorities attributed the shooting to another group, the Armed Criminal Groups (KKB), intentionally avoiding any reference to the separatist OPM. TRAC posits that this is an indication that the government is far from any intention of recognizing the sovereignty of Papua.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report:

Al-Shabaab Suicide Car Bomb (VBIED) Targets a Guest House Where Officials Were Meeting, Killing More Than 13 and Injuring 20 Others, in Bardheere City, Gedo Province, Somalia

Aftermath of the attack

On 14 March 2023, al-Shabaab conducted a suicide car bomb attack on a guest house where officials were meeting in Bardheere city, Gedo province, Southwestern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claims that attack led to the death of more than 13 government and police officials and injured 20 others. Although the attack did kill and injure Somalian officials, several civilians including women and children were also killed and injured.


Following the suicide bombing, al-Shabaab targeted the building with at least 20 missiles causing even more casualties and completely destroyed the building.Among those reportedly injured are the former minister of Jubaland security, Abdel Rashid Janan; Gedo governor, Ahmed Boli Garad, also known as Angeh; the 43rd brigade commander, Ahmed Abdallah Harsi, also known as Labali; officer Muhammad al-Deri, Bardera training camp official; and officer Abdallah Bakhti. Al-Shabaab stated that these officials were already on their watchlist.


Embarrassingly, the double tap attack occurred while military officials were meeting to plan counter-terrorism operations against al-Shabaab in the area, suggesting that al-Shabaab had insiders who provided the group with the time and location of the meeting.

TRAC Incident Report:

Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) Militants Targeted an Event Honoring Journalist Held at Tabyan Shia Cultural Centre with IEDs, Killing & Injuring 30, in Mazar-i-Sharif, Balkh Province, Afghanistan

Local Shia preacher Astaz Abbasi, 2nd from the left in the front row was one of the victims of the bombing in Mazar-i-Sharif

On 11 March 2023, Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) militants targeted the Tabyan Shia Cultural Centre with a bag of IEDs in Mazar-i-Sharif, Balkh Province, Afghanistan. The cultural center was targeted while it was holding a celebration of the Shias professional holiday.


Islamic State justified the bombing by claiming that the gathered Shia and journalists were waging an "information war" against Islamists. Thirty people were killed and wounded in this explosion, including journalists and Taliban security personnel. The cultural center itself claimed the deaths of three people and the injuries of more than 30, including 15 journalists, while local sources reported the deaths of seven people. As usual the Taliban (IEA) underestimated the death toll at only 1 individual (a guard) and only 8 other left injured.


This attack comes just five days after ISK’s unofficial media house al-Azaim media released a statement titled “Declaration: The Taliban are the Followers of the Pharaoh”. What is important to note is that ISK had warned the Taliban (IEA) that the countdown has started, a likely reference to the upcoming Ramadan holiday.


The attack took place three days after an ISK suicide bomber targeted the Taliban (IEA) governor’s office, killing the high ranking Taliban (IEA) official in Mazar-e-Sharif, and only a a day after the appointment of an interim governor, and is meant to once again highlight the new administration’s incapacity to provide security.


It should be noted that the cultural center is sponsored by Iran, who the Taliban (IEA) have been courting to invest more in Afghanistan since their takeover of the country. Additionally, Islamic State Khurasan has conducted similar attacks, almost daily from August to mid-November 2022. Recently the militant group has shifted their strategy from conducting several small-scale to targeting more high-profile locations and causing mass casualties.

TRAC Incident Report:

Suspected Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) Armed Assault

Kills 20 Sufi Worshippers at the Grand Mosque in Bani, Séno Province, Burkina Faso

Grand Mosque in Bani, Séno Province in Burkina Faso

On 05 March 2023, suspected Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) militants killed at least 20 Sufi Muslims at the Grand Mosque in Bani, Séno Province, Burkina Faso. The Grand Mosque in Bani, Séno Province is Burkina Faso’s most important Islamic Holy site and used to be a popular tourist attraction for a weekend getaway from Ouagadougou. The main mosque and the six surrounding ones are grouped together in the shape of a man praying and the main mosque faces toward Mecca.


Islamic State (IS) insiders who reported this attack described the mosque as "a temple for the followers of a sect that claims prophethood." Although the majority of Muslims in Burkina Faso are Sunnis, of which Islamic State is the most extreme practicing Takfiri ideology, Burkina’s mostly follow the Maliki school of law, deeply influenced by Sufism.


Sufis are specifically targeted by Islamic State in Wilayat Khurasan (Pakistan and Afghanistan), but ISGS has not been known to make them a priority target in the Sahel. That being said, this seems to be changing on the instructions of IS Central Command as this is the second time in a month that Sufi Muslims have been targeted in Burkina Faso.

On Our Radar:

TRAC Incident Report: Extreme Right-Wing European Australian Movement (EAM) Members Perform Sieg Heil in Eight Hours Day/Labour Day Poster, Australia

Video Report:

al-Kataib Media (al-Shabaab): "Be Harsh on Them" #10

TRAC Incident Report: Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) Attacked a ‘State Agent’ Sajid Pathan in Thatta, Sindh, Pakistan 

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