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Big trading ranges occurred today with May corn having a 7 cent range (up 36 cents from the low, and 3 days in a row above the 9 month bear trendline), May soybeans having a 20 3/4 cent range (up 68 cents from the low, back 25% of the Nov-Feb decline, above the 50-day moving average), and May wheat having a 14 3/4 cent range. These may not be big compared to the 40+ cent swings we saw during COVID, but this volatility is still enough to give you a bit of whiplash watching the markets today. Harvest prices for commodities also saw movement with a 13 1/4 cent range on wheat, 18 1/4 cent on soybeans (surpassing its bear trend line), and 5 1/2 cents on corn.
The main story from today was CONAB releasing their updated March production estimates for Brazil.
2023/24 output of soybeans -2.5 mmt to 146.9 mmt
corn output was -1 mmt to 112.8mmt
Both remain well below the most recent USDA estimates at 155.0 MMT and 124.0 MMT for soybeans and corn, respectively. What does CONAB know that the USDA doesn't... or vice versa? Commodity Weather Group this morning noted potential for drier weather through late March and into April, leaving safrinha corn production to deal with increasing moisture deficits and possible yield/production declines.
In response to the present and projected level of Gatun Lake, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) announced Today through Advisory to Shipping No. No. A-08-2024; a new adjustment to accommodate the growing demand for transits, by increasing the number of daily slots available in the Panamax Locks. Two additional slots will be offered through auction for transit dates beginning March 18, and an additional slot will become available for transit dates beginning March 25. This is a positive direction of export logistics, but we still have a long ways to go back to regular.
There were no daily sales flashes, but this is almost seen as a positive as this also means there were no more wheat cancelations from China.
Funds were thought to have been mostly buyers.
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