Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“People will come to love their oppression, to adore the technologies that undo their capacities to think.”

- Aldous Huxley

“If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts’ but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.”

- Francis Bacon

“When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him."

- Jonathan Swift

1. Survey: North Koreans still watching South Korean media despite brutal crackdown: survey

2. JCS chief visits U.S. strategic, space commands

3. The wild, wonderful world of North Korean smartphones

4. Large-scale political rallies held in downtown Seoul

5. What North Korea can offer Putin as Russia explores "arrangements"

6. Survey: North Koreans still watching South Korea media despite brutal crackdown

7. North Korea Lured Japanese by Promising Paradise. Some Escapees Are Now Suing Kim Jong Un—‘We Were Deceived.’

8. Historic year of North Korean missile tests raises Pacific tensions

9. North Korea is a tinderbox. But no one can know what spark might ignite change.

10. US, Japan, S. Korea Officials to Meet in Tokyo Amid Escalating N. Korea Threats

11. Reports Shed New Light on Last Hours of S.Korean Slain by North in 2020

12. American B-1B Bombers Land in Guam to 'Deter Adversaries' and Reassure Allies

13. North Korean police told to improve security nationwide to protect leader Kim Jong Un

14. Fears for Kim Jong Un's safety rock North Korea

15. Information Warfare in north Korea

1. Survey: North Koreans still watching South Korean media despite brutal crackdown: survey

Just think if we had a coordinated and synchronized effort and committed the cost of say one F-35 to getting information into the north.

I have spoken with escapees (defectors) about the information getting into the north. I ask any questions but one is about the supposed moral hazard we create by sending information into the north because if they are caught with outside information they can be punished. They all tell me they know the risks and are willing to take those risks because they want outside information - there is a thirst for it. I recall one escapee telling me that he was caught with information and was held for five days of continuous beatings. He had to confess and swear he would not view any outside media. He said within days of his release the attraction to outside information was so great that he had to watch DVDs from the South again despite knowing the risks.

The Korean people in the north know the risks and are willing to accept them. This is one indication of the value and power of information. We (as in the ROK/US alliance) need to embrace this.

Another escapee told me information causes a kind of psychological paralysis fr some Koreans in the north. They have a better understanding of the outside world (and as Thae Young Ho told me because of that he could no longer explain the contradictions of north Korea to his sons). Yet they have to survive and to do that they live by the Juche indoctrination in order to survive. This is what paralyzes thinking about collective action that we all would expect among people suffering as they do.

But collective action will come especially if we provide practical information on how to effect change.

If I were king for a day, I would build an entire information and influence activities line of effort around the 1919 Korean Declaration of Independence - creating historical dramas as well as modern dramas that show the declaration being applied to influence freedom in the north and ultimately the unification of the peninsula into a free and unified Korea.

We hereby declare that Korea is an independent state and that Koreans are a self-governing people. We proclaim this fact to all nations to reaffirm the great truth that all humans are equal, so that our descendants may forever enjoy their rights to live as an autonomous people.

This declaration of ours is propelled by the strength of our five thousand years of history and the shared will of twenty million Koreans. It is made so that our nation may thrive in perpetuity and be in step with the larger trend of global evolution that is being shaped by the conscience of humanity. This is the will of heaven and the spirit of our time, and it springs from the rights all humans deserve. Nothing in the world shall stand in the way of our independence.

https://overseas.mofa.go.kr/us-losangeles-en/brd/m_4394/view.do?seq=761378

Survey: North Koreans still watching South Korean media despite brutal crackdown: survey

The Korea Times · October 21, 2022

In this 2017 March file photo, a North Korea flag flutters next to concertina wire at the North Korean embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Reuters-Yonhap

North Koreans continue to consume videos and music from South Korea despite the growing threat of prison terms and even death, according to a new survey of both defectors and people still inside the country.

The survey, released on Wednesday by Seoul-based broadcaster Unification Media Group and partner news site Daily NK, found that 96 percent of respondents currently living in North Korea viewed foreign content, including popular South Korean series such as Crash Landing on You and Squid Game.

Fifty people inside the tightly controlled state took part in the survey via clandestine phone interviews, while 100 recent defectors in South Korea recounted their experiences in the North through face-to-face interviews.

Foreign media consumption in North Korea has gotten far riskier since the passage of an "anti-reactionary thought" law in December 2020, which calls for punishments that range from hard labor to death for crimes such as importing videos or even singing in a South Korean style.

The survey clearly demonstrates a hunger for information despite the climate of fear inside the country, said Lee Kwang-baek, president of Unification Media Group.

"The punishment for the offenders who watch, listen to or disseminate outside information in North Korea has been noticeably intensified, so North Korean people are afraid of exposing themselves to outside information," Lee told UPI. "[But] the means of receiving external information ― media and digital devices ― have constantly increased."

Some 88 percent of North Korean respondents said they personally knew someone punished under the anti-reactionary law, including those sent to the regime's notorious political prison camps. A 2014 United Nations Commission of Inquiry report documented crimes against humanity in the camps, including torture, rape, execution, deliberate starvation and forced labor, that were "without parallel in the contemporary world."

Public executions have also been held for individuals accused of watching or distributing South Korean videos, according to reports from Daily NK and human rights investigators.

Viewing and listening habits are changing under the crackdown, the survey found, with only 2 percent of current North Korean residents saying they consumed foreign media almost every day compared to 25 percent of the defectors, all of whom left the country before the anti-reactionary law was enacted.

In this April 11 file photo, students and youth take part in a dancing party to commemorate the 10th anniversary of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's election as the top party and state leader, at the Arch of Triumph plaza in Pyongyang. AFP-Yonhap

Lee said that North Koreans are finding a variety of ways to adapt to the worsening media environment, such as using apps to bypass government-imposed cell phone restrictions and sharing content on smaller SD cards instead of CDs and DVDs.

"Even though the control over outside information has gotten egregious, the ceaseless efforts based on courage and perseverance that North Korean people make ... to obtain and consume outside information, impresses us much," Lee said.

In addition to entertainment, the survey showed a high demand for news about the outside world as well as conditions inside North Korea, which has kept its borders sealed since the earliest days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"If the international community has an understanding of the changes in North Korean society and successfully [sends] external information through the means of radio waves or storage devices to North Korea, we can achieve, protect and enhance the freedom of information and right to know in North Korean society," Lee said.

At a panel discussion for the survey's release on Wednesday, other North Korea-focused activists and researchers called information a key catalyst for change in North Korea ― especially as Pyongyang has repeatedly rejected calls for diplomacy amid a flurry of missile and weapons tests.

"We've pretty much hit the limit with sanctions, and because of the stance of the North Korean government there's not that much that we can do with negotiations and engagement," Sokeel Park, South Korean country director for NGO Liberty in North Korea, said.

"Cultural power and information power... remains an underutilized and underinvested-in strategy that we could leverage to push for long-term positive change, opening and, ultimately, freedom for North Korean people."

The survey has not yet been published online. (UPI)

The Korea Times · October 21, 2022

2. JCS chief visits U.S. strategic, space commands

If this were Kim Jong Un visiting his equivalent of STRATCOM he would have a map of the US and point to targets he would strike (recall him I think pointing to Texas in one photo).

No one does propaganda better than the Kim family regime.

The Map of Death

What North Korea's missiles are really aimed at.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/04/03/the-map-of-death/

What is North Korea trying to hit?

A closer look at Pyongyang’s propaganda provides clues to Kim Jong Un’s nuclear strategy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/north-korea-targets/

JCS chief visits U.S. strategic, space commands | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 정주원 · October 22, 2022

SEOUL, Oct. 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum has met with senior U.S. commanders to discuss measures to beef up security and strategic cooperation on the Korean Peninsula, including the U.S. provision of extended deterrence, the JCS said on Saturday.

Kim visited U.S. Strategic Command in Nebraska on Friday (U.S. time) for talks with Commander Adm. Charles Richard on ways to strengthen coordination against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. Kim was accompanied by Gen. Paul J. LaCamera, top commander of the U.S. Forces Korea.

Richard said the U.S. is prepared to effectively cope with North Korean nuclear threats of any kind. The U.S. admiral also emphasized that the U.S. will provide all possible means for extended deterrence to South Korea if necessary.

In addition, the two sides agreed to actively cooperate in deployment of strategic assets, joint drills and the expansion of strategic dialogue, the JCS said.

Kim also visited the U.S. Space Command in Colorado and met with its chief, Gen. James Dickinson, to discuss ways to tighten the two countries' alliance against increasing aerospace challenges.

Kim and Dickinson agreed that the Seoul-Washington alliance is the linchpin of the peace, security and lasting stability of the Korean Peninsula, JCS said.

The JCS said the two countries will enhance the joint aerospace operations on the Korean Peninsula, and operate a joint Seoul-Washington military aerospace organization.

The JCS added that South Korea will increase its space capacities through increased participation in the U.S. space drills.

Kim visited the U.S. to attend the annual Military Committee Meeting between the two countries held in Washington on Wednesday. Kim also held a trilateral meeting with his counterparts in the U.S. and Japan, -- Gen. Mark Milley and Gen. Koji Yamazaki, respectively -- the following day.

jwc@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 정주원 · October 22, 2022

3. The wild, wonderful world of North Korean smartphones

Can we exploit this? Yes, the regime tries to exert complete control but I am sure we could exploit this if we had the will to do so - Elon Musk could probably deploy a satellite that these phones could access and design software that could provide false information to the monitors - scientists and engineers could have a field day trying to defeat the north Korean information control system - "let slip the [information] dogs of war."

Photos at the link: https://www.androidpolice.com/most-ineresting-phones-north-korea/

The wild, wonderful world of North Korean smartphones

androidpolice.com · by Jon Gilbert · October 21, 2022

From new flagships like the Google Pixel 7 Pro to budget stars like the Samsung A53, there are a ton of great Android phones. However, not every device is available worldwide. Brazilians will be hard-pressed to grab that Pixel 7 Pro, and U.S. citizens can only look enviously at those sporting the eye-catching Nothing Phone. However, if you're determined, you can usually grab one, albeit at a markup and with limited network connectivity. But what about the most elusive of phones? What about North Korean smartphones?

ANDROIDPOLICE VIDEO OF THE DAY

North Korean smartphones are designed to allow citizens the convenience of a smartphone while creating another avenue for the state to monitor and control them. But what are they like? Long story short: They're fascinating. Many are awful. Others look familiar. Here's a rundown of some of our favorite North Korean phones. So

North Koreans get, then lose smartphones

Introduced in 2002, smartphones were then banned from 2004 to 2008. The ban was lifted when Egyptian telecommunications company Orascom Telecom Media and Technology Holding, in a joint venture with the state, established a new 3G mobile phone service named Koryolink. Leaked documents show that Huawei breached US sanctions when it helped build North Korea's 3G network along China's state-owned Panda.

Today, Koryolink is much the same: 3G is still the standard, though Huawei may have stopped maintaining the network in 2016. Most North Koreans can only access North Korea's intranet. However, long-term foreign residents (such as diplomatic staff) and visitors can access the internet. That said, North Korea had three Wi-Fi access points in 2020. And if you're not a resident and want access to the Koryolink network, plan to spend around $285 for a SIM card, and you'll need to budget for about $23 for 50MB of 3G data.

A glimpse of a North Korean phone with a built-in mosquito repellant. There's also a Google Drive icon that opens a screensaver app.

So what phones are North Korean residents using?

It's hard to confirm these phones' details reliably. Some specifications here are sourced directly from the DPRK state media, so take those with a bucketload of salt. Lumen Global, a non-profit dedicated to sharing information with North Korean people, collated the specifications below and has done its best to collate the most accurate specifications.

The Arirang family of smartphones

Five years after launching Koryolink, North Korea announced its first smartphone. Named "Arirang" after a Korean folk song, the AS1201 was touted as being made in North Korea, with Kim Jong-un personally touring the Arirang factory. However, the phone was neither original nor made in North Korea.

Source: Washington Post

Kim Jong-un visiting the Arirang "factory."

The exact specifications of the AS1201 are unknown (Kim Jong-un reportedly praised the "high pixels" of the camera). Rather than home-grown Korean tech, Arirang's first phone was a rebranded Uniscope U1201, a Chinese phone launched in 2014 with Android 4 and substandard hardware.

2 Images

The AS1201's exterior (the phone on the right of each photo) is identical to the Uniscope U1201.

In 2016, the Arirang 151 was released alongside a budget version, the 152. Then came the Arirang 161 in 2017, featuring a fingerprint sensor for the first time. (Four years after the iPhone 5s.) Unlike the original Arirang, it isn't a clone of another device, but its design cues are taken from Samsung's phones.

2 Images

Left: Arirang 151 Right: Arirang 152

The Arirang 171, reportedly the fifth Arirang model, was launched in 2018 with a 4.7-inch screen, 4GB of RAM, 32GB RAM, and a fingerprint sensor.

Phone Arirang 171 Release date 2018 OS Android 7.11 Chipset Mediatek MT6797 Display 5.5 inches Resolution 1080p Front camera 8MP Rear camera 13MP Memory 4GB RAM, 32GB

All phone specifications are sourced from Lumen Global.

Commercials for the Airrang-151 and Arirang-171

The Jindallae and Jindallae 3

In 2017, the Jindallae 3 was released. According to the state-run paper DPRK Today, it was designed "in the Korean way." It also claimed that the phone's appearance, structure, circuit design, and operating system were produced locally.

Source: NK News

However, a quick side-by-side comparison with the Samsung S7 and iPhone 6s (released the same year) tells a different story. Rather than an original design, the Jindallae 3 seems to be a combination of the two.

Source: NK News

If you're confused about what happened to the Jindallae 3's predecessors, so are we. Details of the Jindallae were released in 2018, but the name and hardware specs suggest it was released before the Jindallae 3.

Phone Jindallae 6 Jindallae 3 Jindallae Release date 2020 2017 Unknown OS Android 8.1 Android 7.1.1 4.4.2 Chipset MediaTek MT6771 octa-core, 12nm processor Qualcomm Snapdragon 427 quad-core processor ARM Cortex A7 quad-core 1.3GHz Display 6.2 inches 5.2 inches 4.7 inches Resolution 2246 x 1080 1280 x 720 1280 x 720 Memory 6GB Ram, 64GB 4GB RAM, 32GB 1GB RAM, 16GB Rear camera 16MP 13MP 8MP Front camera 8MP 8MP 2MP Battery 3,550mAh 3,100mAh 1,850mA

All phone specifications are sourced from Lumen Global.

Following the Jindallae 3 came the Jindallae 5 (2019) and the Jindallae 6, 6+, and 7 (2020). The Jindallae 5 did not launch with any notable features, but the 6 and 6+ were the first in the line-up to include fingerprint, voice, and facial recognition.

The Phurunhanul H1 and H2

The Phurunhanul H1 was the first smartphone by Phurunhanul Electronics. Little is known about this phone, but the 6,000mAh battery seems implausible, considering only one phone in our roundup of the best Android phones currently available offers this large of a battery.

Source: NKnews

The Phurunhanul H2's release date is unclear, but a larger display, more significant memory, and improved cameras indicate it came afterward. It also came with a smaller but slightly more realistic 4,300 mAh battery.

Phone Phurunhanal H1 Phurunhanal H2 Release date 2018 Unknown OS Android (version unknown) Android (version unknown) Chipset Mediatek MT6753 1.3GHz Mediatek MT6750 Display 5.5 inches 6 inches Resolution Unknown 1440 x 720 Front camera 8MP 13.3MP Rear camera 16MP 21.2MP Memory 3GB RAM, 32GB 4GB RAM, 64GB Battery 6,000mAh 4,300mAh Size Unknown 159 x 76.2 x 9.6 mm Weight Unknown 240 grams

All phone specifications are sourced from Lumen Global.

The Pyongyang phones

The Pyongyang brand includes the most extensive range of North Korean smartphones. There are too many to list here, but here are some highlights.

The Pyongyang 1202

A fetching clamshell device, this photo of the Pyongyang 1202 was published by the Sogwang website (a NK propaganda site, now offline) in 2019. Photographed at an electronics store, this was likely part of a display of older phones.

Source: Lumen Global

Pyongyang 2423

This phone was obtained from The Daily NK website. Tinkering around with the phone, it found numerous security controls on the device, these included:

No external access to internal folders
SD cards are restricted from storing data.

Source: Lumen Global

What apps can a North Korean smartphone user access?

An extended commercial for the Arirang 171, showing its installed apps and features.

North Koreans don't have a choice over what apps come preinstalled on their device. The Kiltongmu phone, released in 2019 (a clone of the Samsung Note 8), came preinstalled with "30 dictionaries, programs, entertainment, and [other] media that are popular among users," as reported by NK News.

Other phones come with rip-offs of popular games like Angry Birds, and while it's hard to tell from images, it's clear that many iOS apps have been copied for use in North Korea's smartphones.

There are also plenty of mystery apps. The Jindallae 3 came with an app called Hiding, which could be anything from a game to a chat app.

But regardless of the app, you can be sure that they're designed to allow the state to monitor all activity.

North Korean smartphones are what you would expect

North Korean smartphones are almost disappointing in their blandness. They are cheap rip-offs of popular devices. The unique thing about them is the complete lack of privacy. Take a moment to appreciate your freedoms, and check up on your digital privacy.

androidpolice.com · by Jon Gilbert · October 21, 2022

4. Large-scale political rallies held in downtown Seoul

I recall seeing large rallies in the 1980s in Seoul during the democracy movement. Except then there was always the hint of tear gas (CS) in the air. I do not see evidence of any tear gas use in these modern rallies.

Excerpts:

Both sides expressed contrasting voices about sensitive political issues throughout the rallies.

Conservative activists called for the formal arrest of opposition leader Lee Jae-myung over his alleged involvement in a corruption-laden urban development scandal.

Liberal activists, meanwhile, denounced the prosecution's probe into Lee as "political revenge" and called on President Yoon Suk-yeol to step down.

There have been no reports of violence or clashes between the two sides, but police stayed on alert, as possible scuffles could occur near Samgakji, close to the presidential office in Yongsan.

While the Kim regime might be salivating over this and thinking its United Front Department and Cultural Exchange Bureau (225th) is having success at organizing political opposition, the ROK government should be reminding everyone that this is an expression of healthy (if not messay ) democracy.

We should remember (and both libral and conservatives in the South) this:

Subversion

The undermining of the power and authority of an established system or institution.
As in: "the ruthless subversion of democracy"
Ideological War – a choice between:
Shared ROK/US Values
Freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights
Kim family regime (KFR) “values”
Juche/Kimilsungism/now "KIMJONGUNISM," Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and denial of human rights to sustain KFR power
nK engages in political warfare and active subversion of the ROK

Political Warfare: Political warfare is the use of political means to compel an opponent to do one's will, based on hostile intent. The term political describes the calculated interaction between a government and a target audience to include another state's government, military, and/or general population. Governments use a variety of techniques to coerce certain actions, thereby gaining relative advantage over an opponent. The techniques include propaganda and psychological operations (PSYOP), which service national and military objectives respectively. Propaganda has many aspects and a hostile and coercive political purpose. Psychological operations are for strategic and tactical military objectives and may be intended for hostile military and civilian populations. Smith, Paul A., On Political War (Washington: National Defense University Press, 1989), p. 3. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a233501.pdf

North Korean Agencies

Responsible for Subversion (UW, SO and CI/Security)

North Korean intelligence and security services collect political, military, economic, and technical information through open sources, human intelligence, cyber intrusions, and signals intelligence capabilities. North Korea's primary intelligence collection targets remain the ROK, the United States, and Japan. They likely operate anywhere North Korea has a diplomatic or sizable economic overseas presence.

The Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB) is North Korea's primary foreign intelligence service, responsible for collection and clandestine operations. The RGB comprises six bureaus with compartmented functions, including operations, reconnaissance, technology and cyber capabilities, overseas intelligence, inter-Korean talks, and service support.

The Ministry of State Security (MSS) is North Korea's primary counterintelligence service and is an autonomous agency of the North Korean Government reporting directly to Kim Jong Un. The MSS is responsible for operating North Korean prison camps, investigating cases of domestic espionage, repatriating defectors, and conducting overseas counterespionage activities in North Korea's foreign missions.

The United Front Department (UFD) overtly attempts to establish pro-North Korean groups in the ROK, such as the Korean Asia-Pacific Committee and the Ethnic Reconciliation Council. The UFD is also the primary department involved in managing inter-Korean dialogue and North Korea's policy toward the ROK.

The 225th Bureau is responsible for training agents to infiltrate the ROK and establish underground political parties focused on fomenting unrest and revolution.

(LEAD) Large-scale political rallies held in downtown Seoul | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · October 22, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES with details throughout; RECASTS headline, lead; ADDS photos)

SEOUL, Oct. 22 (Yonhap) -- Tens of thousands of conservative and progressive activists staged large-scale rallies in downtown Seoul on Saturday, chanting opposing slogans about sensitive political issues. There were no reports of clashes or violence.

Right-wing activists, including members of the far-right Liberty Unification Party, held demonstrations in Gwanghwamun against what they call pro-North Korea sympathizers.

Police estimated about 32,000 activists participated in the event.

Progressive activists also held an anti-government protest on nearby streets, with police projecting about 16,000 people joined the rally.

The massive rallies caused severe traffic disruptions surrounding main roads spanning from Gwanghwamun to City Hall in central Seoul.

Both sides expressed contrasting voices about sensitive political issues throughout the rallies.

Conservative activists called for the formal arrest of opposition leader Lee Jae-myung over his alleged involvement in a corruption-laden urban development scandal.

Liberal activists, meanwhile, denounced the prosecution's probe into Lee as "political revenge" and called on President Yoon Suk-yeol to step down.

There have been no reports of violence or clashes between the two sides, but police stayed on alert, as possible scuffles could occur near Samgakji, close to the presidential office in Yongsan.

Progressive activists plan to embark on a 5-kilometer march toward Samgakji at 6:30 p.m. In the same place, about 4,000 members of right-wing civic groups were gathering for a political rally.

Police set up fences and bus walls near the exits of the Samgakji subway station to restrict people's access.

Top officials of the National Police Agency discussed measures Friday to cope with possible violent clash between rival protesters and minimize traffic congestion. The meeting was presided over by Commissioner General Yoon Hee-keun.

jwc@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · October 22, 2022

5. What North Korea can offer Putin as Russia explores "arrangements"

Excerpts:

Price also confirmed Kirby's assessment during his Thursday press briefing, saying Russian military personnel based in Crimea have been piloting Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that were part of recent strikes against Kyiv.

"We assess that Iranian personnel, Iranian military personnel, were on the ground in Crimea and assisted Russia in these operations," Price said. "Russia has received dozens of these UAVs so far and will likely continue to receive additional shipments in the future."

"I think the North Korea will be more cautious than the Iranians," Parachini said, adding that Iran originally denied a partnership with Russia and then changed its tone "to kind of normalize" relations.

"It will be interesting to see if North Korea does the same thing," he said.

Newsweek reached out to the Russia Ministry of Defense for comment.

What North Korea can offer Putin as Russia explores "arrangements"

Newsweek · by Nick Mordowanec · October 21, 2022

Russia and North Korea are purportedly exploring some kind of weapons arrangement, according to the U.S. State Department.

State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said Thursday that due to Russia's desperation, which has included mobilization and the imposition of martial law, it has turned to nations like North Korea and Iran for assistance.

"Some of this is a reflection of the export controls, of the sanctions, of the economic measures that we've imposed on Russia," Price said. "The fact is that they don't have the ability to organically produce, to import, the key inputs that they need, and so they're turning to Iran. They're exploring arrangements with North Korea."

Reports in early September said that the Russian Ministry of Defense was in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) greets North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during their meeting on April 25, 2019, in Vladivostok, Russia. The U.S. government believes the two countries are working together for arms exchanges that would help Russia against Ukraine. Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

An anonymous U.S. official told the Associated Press that Russia's reliance on North Korea demonstrates that "the Russian military continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions."

John Parachini, senior international and defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, told Newsweek that Price's remarks are another case in which the U.S. is releasing intelligence to try to thwart what Russia is doing while being more transparent.

"What [Russia] will do with North Korea is not clear, although there's a lot of suggestions that it would be artillery and short-range missiles," Parachini said. "I think it's hard to know, but what the Russians need is short-range missiles and artillery. It's kind of an embrace of the isolated countries, like who could Russia turn to?"

That is due to China and Indian not wanting to get more involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he added. And since Russia's production lines seem limited, North Korea could potentially provide weaponry in exchange for food, fuel or something else.

Aside from a stockpile of ammunitions, North Korea could provide Russia with the "single biggest source of compatible legacy artillery ammunition outside of Russia, including domestic production facilities to further supplies," Joseph Dempsey, research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Defense News.

Lee Illwoo, an expert with the Korea Defense Network in South Korea, told Defense News that North and South Korea each keeps tens of millions of artillery shells.

He said North Korea could potentially sell older shells that it wants to replace with newer ones, either for multiple rocket launch systems or sophisticated missiles in its front-line Army bases.

The most likely weapons provided to Russia could include 107mm Katyusha rockets, 122mm rocket launchers, 155mm or 122mm artillery shells, or small-arms ammunition for machine guns or automatic rifles, Bruce Bechtol, a professor at Angelo State University in Texas who has conducted research on North Korea's arms sales, told Reuters.

"Everything North Korea makes is basically a copy of old Soviet systems," Bechtol said.

Frank Aum, a senior expert on Northeast Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace, told Newsweek that if such arrangements are happening, it might make sense for North Korea.

"The Kim regime is cash-strapped due to years of multilateral sanctions and its self-imposed COVID lockdown and has looked for various ways, including illicit channels such as cybertheft and ship-to-ship transfers, to gain hard currency and assistance," Aum said.

"So this type of arms deal allows North Korea to help one of its strongest allies while gaining sorely needed financial and material benefits and also greater support at the U.N. Security Council against additional sanctions since Russia has veto power."

Russia vetoed a U.S. proposal for sanctions against North Korea earlier this year, he added.

Ken Gause, director of the Adversary Analytics Program at the Center for Naval Analyses and an expert on North Korea, told Newsweek that the State Department's statements have merit but that North Korean weapons likely wouldn't make much of a difference in terms of the conflict with Ukraine.

It would probably result in Russia receiving "low-tech equipment" or small conventional arms, he said.

"In terms of it making a big difference or it being high-tech or missiles, I doubt it....North Koreans are always looking for a way to get paid, and Russians are...basically dragging the bottom of the barrel," Gause said.

Countries like North Korea, China and Iran are all "sitting on the periphery" compared to the Western order, Gause said, and shared agreements among them could push back against the U.S. and its allies.

"I can easily see them working a variety of different deals to provide Russia with what they might need," he said, adding it's not a surprise that Russia has reached out to countries with mutual interests. "But there will always be a price asked, especially by the North Koreans."

Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center and the director of Stimson's 38 North Program that analyzes North Korea, told Newsweek that it remains unclear what types of discussions are going on between the Russians and North Koreans about military acquisitions or broader assistance.

"There has certainly been high-level signaling between the two countries—statements from both Putin and Kim—that open the door for cooperation at various levels," Town said. "Putin has more than once thanked Kim Jong Un for North Korea's loyalty and support, and there's little doubt that Pyongyang is willing to provide assistance in whatever forms it can, for a price, of course."

In July, North Korea recognized the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic—one of four annexed territories that have since been viewed by Russia officially as its own, after voter referendums many called dubious.

In September, Russia and North Korea denied any arms exchanges.

An unnamed official at North Korea's defense ministry accused the U.S. and other "hostile forces" of spreading rumors to "pursue its base political and military aims," the BBC reported.

"We have never exported weapons or ammunition to Russia before and we will not plan to export them," the official said.

Iran is reportedly helping to train Russian military forces to use a new type of drone deadlier than the Iranian-made Shahed-136.

The Iranian government has denied supplying Russia with drones to use against Ukrainian forces—a claim refuted by Ukrainian officials and the White House.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Thursday that Iran has sent a "relatively small number" of personnel to Crimea to be "directly engaged on the ground," the Associated Press reported.

That includes aiding in drone operations and attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.

Price also confirmed Kirby's assessment during his Thursday press briefing, saying Russian military personnel based in Crimea have been piloting Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that were part of recent strikes against Kyiv.

"We assess that Iranian personnel, Iranian military personnel, were on the ground in Crimea and assisted Russia in these operations," Price said. "Russia has received dozens of these UAVs so far and will likely continue to receive additional shipments in the future."

"I think the North Korea will be more cautious than the Iranians," Parachini said, adding that Iran originally denied a partnership with Russia and then changed its tone "to kind of normalize" relations.

"It will be interesting to see if North Korea does the same thing," he said.

Newsweek reached out to the Russia Ministry of Defense for comment.

Update 10/21/22, 1:05 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Ken Gause, director of the Adversary Analytics Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, and Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center.

Newsweek · by Nick Mordowanec · October 21, 2022

6. Survey: North Koreans still watching South Korea media despite brutal crackdown

If only we understood the power of information and culture. If only...

Excerpts:

"If the international community has an understanding of the changes in North Korean society and successfully [sends] external information through the means of radio waves or storage devices to North Korea, we can achieve, protect and enhance the freedom of information and right to know in North Korean society," Lee said.

At a panel discussion for the survey's release on Wednesday, other North Korea-focused activists and researchers called information a key catalyst for change in North Korea -- especially as Pyongyang has repeatedly rejected calls for diplomacy amid a flurry of missile and weapons tests.

"We've pretty much hit the limit with sanctions, and because of the stance of the North Korean government there's not that much that we can do with negotiations and engagement," Sokeel Park, South Korean country director for NGO Liberty in North Korea, said.

"Cultural power and information power... remains an underutilized and underinvested-in strategy that we could leverage to push for long-term positive change, opening and, ultimately, freedom for North Korean people."

Survey: North Koreans still watching South Korea media despite brutal crackdown

By Thomas Maresca

upi.com

1/3

North Koreans have continued to access media from the outside world despite a brutal clampdown inside the country, according to a new survey by Unification Media Group and Daily NK. File Photo by Stephen Shaver/UPI | License Photo

SEOUL, Oct. 21 (UPI) -- North Koreans continue to consume videos and music from South Korea despite the growing threat of prison terms and even death, according to a new survey of both defectors and people still inside the country.

The survey, released on Wednesday by Seoul-based broadcaster Unification Media Group and partner news site Daily NK, found that 96% of respondents currently living in North Korea viewed foreign content, including popular South Korean series such as Crash Landing on You and Squid Game.

The survey clearly demonstrates a hunger for information despite the climate of fear inside the country, said Lee Kwang-baek, president of Unification Media Group.

"The punishment for the offenders who watch, listen to or disseminate outside information in North Korea has been noticeably intensified, so North Korean people are afraid of exposing themselves to outside information," Lee told UPI. "[But] the means of receiving external information -- media and digital devices -- have constantly increased. "

Some 88% of North Korean respondents said they personally knew someone punished under the anti-reactionary law, including those sent to the regime's notorious political prison camps. A 2014 United Nations Commission of Inquiry report documented crimes against humanity in the camps, including torture, rape, execution, deliberate starvation and forced labor, that were "without parallel in the contemporary world."

Public executions have also been held for individuals accused of watching or distributing South Korean videos, according to reports from Daily NK and human rights investigators.

Viewing and listening habits are changing under the crackdown, the survey found, with only 2% of current North Korean residents saying they consumed foreign media almost every day compared to 25% of the defectors, all of whom left the country before the anti-reactionary law was enacted.

At a panel discussion for the survey's release on Wednesday, other North Korea-focused activists and researchers called information a key catalyst for change in North Korea -- especially as Pyongyang has repeatedly rejected calls for diplomacy amid a flurry of missile and weapons tests.

The survey has not yet been published online.

7. North Korea Lured Japanese by Promising Paradise. Some Escapees Are Now Suing Kim Jong Un—‘We Were Deceived.’

We might want to laugh at north Korean propaganda. But it has achieved effects.

Photos at the link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-lured-japanese-by-promising-paradise-some-escapees-are-now-suing-kim-jong-unwe-were-deceived-11666360802?mod=flipboard

North Korea Lured Japanese by Promising Paradise. Some Escapees Are Now Suing Kim Jong Un—‘We Were Deceived.’

A mother-daughter duo keeps alive the history of thousands who went to live in North Korea and got trapped there

By Alastair GaleFollow

/ Photographs by Shiho Fukada for The Wall Street Journal

Oct. 21, 2022 10:00 am ET

As one of five siblings left behind in North Korea, Sora Li says she often struggled to contain her anger at her mother who had fled the country.

“I couldn’t sleep. I went outside and shouted about how much I resented her,” she said.

Two decades later, she has reunited with her mother in Japan, and they are pursuing a lawsuit against North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the Japanese courts.

The case, they say, is about remembering one of postwar Japan’s great humanitarian debacles—a task that is falling on Ms. Li’s generation because those who lived through it are dying out.

Ms. Li’s mother, Eiko Kawasaki, was one of more than 90,000 people, mostly of Korean descent, who moved to North Korea from Japan between 1959 and 1984. They were drawn by pride in their heritage and by promises from Mr. Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, that they would be returning to an earthly paradise.

A ship carrying people departed for North Korea from the port of Niigata, Japan, in 1959.

PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS

For North Korea, the program was a way to recover national pride and boost the labor force after around two million Koreans moved to Japan, many against their will, during the Japanese occupation of Korea that ended in 1945. Following its war defeat, Japan facilitated the flow of people back to Korea.

Ms. Kawasaki, who was born to ethnically Korean parents in Japan, took a one-way boat to North Korea alone at age 17 in 1960, expecting to find purpose as part of a nation-building project among people like herself.

Even before the boat docked in North Korea, people at the port shouted warnings to turn back. It was too late. Those who believed the propaganda had sentenced themselves to life in an impoverished state, where their Japanese connections would expose them to discrimination.

“We were deceived,” says Ms. Kawasaki, now 80.

In North Korea, Ms. Kawasaki worked in construction and spent nights caring for her husband, a North Korean man with a long-term illness. “I wasn’t warm like a regular mother to my children. My role was to provide for the family through my work,” Ms. Kawasaki said.

In 2003, after her children were adults and her husband had died, Ms. Kawasaki devised a plan to escape back to Japan by first crossing the border into China. She told no one. Leaving the country without approval is a serious crime in North Korea. She succeeded and reunited with her family in Japan, leaving behind Ms. Li and her other children.

Eiko Kawasaki, born to ethnically Korean parents in Japan, took a one-way boat to North Korea alone at age 17 in 1960, expecting to find purpose as part of a nation-building project among people like herself. She escaped back to Japan in 2003.

When Sora Li escaped North Korea and reunited with her mother in Japan, she was initially dismayed by her mother’s work to raise public awareness about the plight of people who went to North Korea. Over the years, she says, ‘I came around to the view that someone needed to try to resolve North Korea’s human-rights violations.’

Ms. Li said her husband drank heavily after being passed over for promotions because of his mother-in-law’s escape. The hospital where Ms. Li’s 4-year-old son was being treated for malnutrition said it couldn’t care for him any longer, she recalled.

“Among my siblings, I was the only one who wouldn’t accept what my mother did,” Ms. Li said.

One night, as she recalled it, a blood-soaked neighbor frantically knocked on Ms. Li’s door seeking help after being attacked by her own son, who had become addicted to methamphetamine, a drug that had spread widely in North Korea. After that, Ms. Li made her own decision to leave. It was three years after her mother had left.

“I realized there was little hope for my own children,” she said. Her husband objected to the plan but agreed to divorce so they could go.

She had no intention of reuniting with her mother. She wanted to escape to Switzerland, where an acquaintance lived. She made it across the border into China with her daughter, 11 at the time, and her 8-year-old son.

When the house where they sheltered was raided by police, they fled. Ms. Li called her mother in desperation. Ms. Kawasaki made contact with the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, which said Ms. Li and her children should take a taxi there, where they were given sanctuary.

At the embassy, they were told their only option was to fly to Japan. Once reunited with her mother, Ms. Li learned to her dismay that Ms. Kawasaki was active in raising public awareness about the plight of people who went to North Korea. Ms. Li says she feared the publicity would endanger her four siblings who remained there.

Then, over a period of four years, Ms. Li says she began to see how the world appeared in her mother’s eyes. She pored over original materials about the relocation program at Japan’s national library. After putting herself through night school, she went on to study at Hosei University’s department of law, a highly regarded school in Japan.

While there is no prospect of getting money from North Korea, Ms. Li says her mother and the four other people who filed the lawsuit hope a victory will increase pressure on the country to allow survivors of the relocation program to return to Japan.

“I came around to the view that someone needed to try to resolve North Korea’s human-rights violations. That’s what motivated my mother, and I decided I should show my face as part of the campaign,” she said.

She suggested the idea of filing a lawsuit in the Japanese courts. In 2018, Ms. Kawasaki and four other people who had taken part in the relocation program sued Kim Jong Un, each seeking almost $1 million in compensation. They argued they had been deceptively lured to North Korea and then detained there.

They had no prospect of getting money from Mr. Kim, whose government ignored the proceedings. But Ms. Li says the group hoped a victory would raise awareness of the issue and increase pressure on North Korea to allow the remaining survivors of the program to return to Japan.

Only about 150 of those who relocated to North Korea from Japan decades ago have managed to escape, according to human-rights groups. By comparison, about 34,000 North Koreans have made it to the South since the late 1990s.

A Tokyo court ruled in March that while the plaintiffs had been deceived, they had taken too long to file the case. It rejected the claim for damages. The group, whose five members are all in or approaching their 80s, is now preparing to file an appeal at the Tokyo High Court.

Ms. Li, now 52, advises the group of plaintiffs, and on weekends and holidays spends time with her own children and her mother, going to restaurants or playing family games. She also helps manage a project to plant willow trees as part of a memorial in Niigata, the port city from which the people who joined the relocation project left Japan.

When she speaks to her mother, Ms. Li says she uses the formal “Kawasaki-san,” rather than “mother,” indicating some emotional distance remains between them. But now one of her main concerns is whether the High Court ruling might come too late because of her mother’s declining health.

“I have tremendous respect for her when I reflect on how tough her life has been,” Ms. Li said.

Ms. Kawasaki last spoke with her children in North Korea in late 2020. She fears that she may not see them again, but takes some solace in a call she had with her son six months after her escape.

“You brought us up and did so much for us. We understand that you’d want to go back to the other family you left behind,” she recalls he said.

Sora Li uses formal language to address her mother, indicating some emotional distance remains between them. Despite that, Ms. Li says, ‘I have tremendous respect for her when I reflect on how tough her life has been.’

Write to Alastair Gale at alastair.gale@wsj.com

8. Historic year of North Korean missile tests raises Pacific tensions

Historic year of North Korean missile tests raises Pacific tensions

Stars and Stripes · by Kevin Knodell · October 19, 2022

North Korea launches a missile from a submarine in this image released by the state-run Korean Central News Agency on Oct. 10, 2022. (KCNA)

(Tribune News Service) — North Korea has fired over 40 missiles this year, more than during any year since its leader, Kim Jong Un, took power in 2011. Last week it launched a short-range ballistic missile toward its eastern waters and flew warplanes near the border with South Korea.

The latest surge in missile launches hasn’t gone unnoticed in Hawaii.

On Oct. 3 a North Korean ballistic missile flew an estimated 2,850 miles, the farthest a North Korean missile has flown yet — soaring over Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean. North Korea hadn’t launched a missile over Japan in five years.

In response to news of the launch, the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency tweeted that “authorities in Japan alerted the public and advised they take shelter. At this time NO threat to Hawai’i is anticipated.”

North Korea said the launch was a response to joint training between the South Korean navy and the U.S. Navy’s USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group. Following the test, the Reagan returned to South Korean waters for another round of joint training, and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s Adm. John Aquilino flew to South Korea to meet with its newly elected President Yoon Suk-yeol.

Hawaii is the nerve center of all U.S. military operations in the region, serving as the headquarters of both INDOPACOM and the U.S. Pacific Fleet. Missile defense strategy for the Pacific has been debated by key military leaders in Hawaii and Guam and by U.S. policymakers.

Analysts have estimated that if North Korea were to fire missiles at Hawaii, they would hit the islands about 20 minutes after being fired. New submarine-based missiles could potentially get even closer.

During a multinational naval exercise in Hawaii in August, a Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer used its Aegis Combat System to practice shooting down ballistic missiles. In a news release the U.S. military said the “ballistic missile search and tracking exercise demonstrated the commitment of the U.S., (South Korea), and Japan to furthering trilateral cooperation to respond to (North Korean) challenges, protecting shared security and prosperity, and bolstering the rules-based international order.”

The issue of Pyongyang’s missile program was heightened in Hawaii in January 2018 when HI-EMA sent out a false-alarm missile alert to phones across the state. The alert came during tensions as Kim and then-President Donald Trump traded threats and insults, with Trump boasting he would unleash “fire and fury “ on the Korean Peninsula.

“It caused significant personal concern and recalculation of people’s risks about living here,” said James Minnich, a retired Army officer and professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Waikiki. “It’s not healthy for people. It’s not good for the political makeup of the islands to have people feel like they’re living under a risk of a threat of attack by North Korea or any other state, which is why diplomacy is of course important.”

Launches escalate In just the past two months, North Korea has fired more than a dozen missiles. The most recent flurry of missile tests coincides with fears of further escalation in the war in Ukraine and increased tension between China and Taiwan. They also come as Kim and Yoon test each other’s limits.

But Minnich said the latest tests, though significant, were also expected, and follow a steady path as the Kim regime pursues its long-term strategic goals.

“The only constant has been North Korea’s development of its capability, which has created a situation now where a threat which was once localized on the Korean Peninsula extends to the region and beyond, particularly to the U.S. homeland,“ said Minnich. “These are credible threats that are only increasing over time.”

In September 2021, North Korea tested its first hypersonic missile, the Hwasong-8, launching four of them. In May the South Korean military said it detected a ballistic missile launch that it thinks was fired from a North Korean submarine in waters near the port city of Sinpo, where North Korea has a major shipyard that builds submarines.

The U.S. military’s Oahu-based Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement that while the apparent submarine-based launch did not pose an immediate threat, it demonstrated “the destabilizing impact of the (North Korean) illicit weapons program “ and that “the U.S. commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remains ironclad.”

Many analysts think this year’s missile launches will culminate in a nuclear test. North Korea detonated its first nuclear warhead in 2006 and has conducted six tests, most recently in 2017.

Skirting sanctions North Korea has faced economic sanctions over its continued development of nuclear weapons in defiance of the United Nations. Nevertheless, sanctions have not slowed the development of Pyongyang’s increasingly sophisticated weapons program. North Korea has turned increasingly to smuggling and has used hackers to steal funds from businesses and institutions around the globe to bypass sanctions and continue financing its programs.

“On the one hand, we want to deny North Korean status as a nuclear weapons state, but on the other hand, North Korea is already a nuclear weapons state,“ said Moon Chung-in, who served as an adviser to former South Korean President Moon Jae-in and has been involved in talks with North Korean officials.“ Washington, Seoul and Tokyo will always be wrestling with this fundamental dilemma.”

While Pyongyang shows no indication it will give up its nukes, some analysts have suggested lifting some sanctions in exchange for North Korea pausing its testing and development and granting international inspectors access to them.

Minnich said that while sanctions have isolated North Korea economically, they have mostly affected ordinary people rather than the country’s elite and that weapons development as well as North Korea’s emergence as a cybercrime hub appear to have accelerated under sanctions. “The hope is somehow as those without means suffer, somehow they’ll force the government to change,“ he said. “There’s not a whole lot of evidence that that occurs.”

Under Moon Jae-In, Seoul sought a more conciliatory relationship with the North and successfully reached an agreement to formally end the Korean War — which ended in an armistice rather than a formal peace agreement. But Yoon, who took office in May amid this year’s spate of missile launches, has taken a much tougher stance.

During his campaign Yoon said he would explore the redeployment U.S. tactical nuclear missiles to the peninsula that were withdrawn during the 1990s, though Biden administration officials ruled out the possibility.

Nevertheless, South Korean public opinion has shifted as frustration with Pyongyang’s weapons program mounts. A poll conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in February found that as many as 71% of South Koreans now favor their country acquiring its own nuclear weapons to deter the North.

Nuclear declaration North Korea in September passed a new law declaring the country a nuclear weapons state and laid out its strike policies. Among the policies are that any attempt to remove Kim from power would prompt a nuclear strike “automatically and immediately.” Kim called the country’s nuclear status “irreversible “ and ruled out any further talks on denuclearization.

“North Korea views itself as a small great power,” said Minnich, noting that its successful development of nuclear warheads, long-range missiles and satellite systems put it in a league that only a handful of other nations can compete with. “When they make movements on the international stage, the whole world watches. That doesn’t happen with small countries.”

Minnich said both sides have credible fears but that recent policy shifts also create opportunities for misunderstandings that could spark the very escalations both seek to avoid. “We kind of rely upon (the idea) that North Korea will correctly interpret a military strategic situation that is occurring,“ he said. “We expect them to either believe what we say or to interpret it the same way (we do ). That can be rather dangerous.”

But diplomacy has proved challenging.

From 2003 until 2009 both Koreas, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan engaged in so-called Six Party Talks aimed at cooling tensions on the peninsula. At that time Russia and China shared many of the other parties’ concerns about North Korea’s nuclear program. But a series of clashes between the North and South Korean militaries brought talks to a halt, and several subsequent efforts to restart talks proved unsuccessful.

Moon Chung-in said deterioration of relations between the U.S. and China and Russia has only further complicated matters. Neither China nor Russia is cooperating with the U.S. on talks with North Korea.

However, some U.S. officials think China may be exerting pressure on North Korea to hold off on its seventh nuclear test — at least for now.

North Korea, China and Russia have increasingly tightened their relationship since Russia’s February push into western Ukraine. Russia and North Korea have stepped up both military and industrial cooperation as successive sanctions have further isolated the two countries from the global economy.

Honolulu Star-Advertiser reporter Kevin Knodell participated in the East-West Center’s 2022 Korea-United States Journalists Exchange. Through the fellowship, he reported on this story in both South Korea and Hawaii.

Visit at www.staradvertiser.com

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Stars and Stripes · by Kevin Knodell · October 19, 2022

9. North Korea is a tinderbox. But no one can know what spark might ignite change.

When I was in Seoul last month I had this conversation with Ambassador Everard as well as Ambassador Thomas Schafer from Germany who both served in Pyongyang (Ambassador Shafer for two tours of more than 8 years). It was quite an evening dinner conversation and a real treat to sit next to both of these gentlemen and listen to their experiences. (I am grateful to the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy (CAPS https://apstrategy.org/ ) for coordinating the opportunity for us).

You can read about Ambassador Schafer's experiences here: From Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un: How the Hardliners Prevailed: On the Political History of North Korea (2007 - 2020), https://www.amazon.com/Kim-Jong-Hardliners-Prevailed-Political/dp/B0915M66XB. He had to self publish this book because no publisher was interested in it.

North Korea is a tinderbox. But no one can know what spark might ignite change.

https://www.nknews.org/2022/10/north-korea-is-a-tinderbox-but-no-one-can-know-what-spark-might-ignite-change/?utm_source=pocket_mylist

History shows seemingly innocuous events can trigger political crisis, from the Arab Spring to collapse of Qing Dynasty

John Everard October 21, 2022

A North Korean mass games performance in Pyongyang on Sept. 19, 2011 | Image: Eric Lafforgue

Diplomatic analysts sometimes talk of tinderboxes and sparks. A tinderbox is a state that only just manages to continue in its present situation, usually either because its economy is too weak to support the demands placed upon it or because its political system is only just coping with the stresses it faces, or both.

Such states can continue for some time, but they are vulnerable to sparks — to events, usually unforeseen, that suddenly topple a political structure. The effect is often dramatic. States that may have appeared outwardly stable for a long time suddenly vanish or are plunged into chaos.

This matters because while future events in stable states can often be extrapolated from existing trends, tinderboxes are vulnerable to sudden discontinuities. To predict their future, scenario building or gaming are more useful tools than traditional linear forecasting.

North Korea is a tinderbox. It seems to be facing a toxic mix of food insecurity, economic recession, uncertainty at the top of its leadership (why does leader Kim Jong Un keep disappearing?) and popular discontent with its response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

This is not to forecast the imminent collapse of the regime. North Korea has been a tinderbox before, notably in the famine of the 1990s and probably around the time of the 2009 reforms, but the country and regime are still there.

Perhaps it will get through this time too, but it might not. And that means that all those with an interest in the welfare of North Koreans and security on the peninsula must remain prepared for the crisis that would result.

A factor used during the Soviet era in Moscow on Oct. 2008. | Image: Andrew Kuznetsov via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

DRY KINDLING

The problem is that in cases like North Korea, analysts hardly ever see the sparks coming, or get the timing right.

For example, it was clear from the late 1970s onward that the USSR was a tinderbox. Its economy was faltering badly, its society was changing in ways that its regime found difficult to control, it was badly overstretched militarily and diplomatically and there was no sign that its elderly leadership even understood these challenges, let alone was able to respond to them.

Yet the USSR might just have lumbered on for some time had it not been for a completely unexpected event, and one that did not even take place on Soviet territory: Hungary’s decision on June 27, 1989 to allow its citizens to travel to Austria. Hungarians poured across the border, and within weeks they were joined by other Eastern Europeans, especially East Germans.

Soviet power hissed out of Eastern Europe like the air from a punctured balloon. Two and a half years later, on Dec. 26, 1991, the USSR ceased to exist. Many analysts had predicted the downfall of the USSR but hardly any got the timing right and none predicted the spark.

Similarly, it was clear as the 2010s started that the incompetent and repressive regimes that ruled much of the Arab world were as unable or as unwilling to respond either to the economic pressures that were stressing their societies, or to the demands for change that bubbled within them, as the USSR had been.

Earlier in the century, some analysts had predicted the fall of one or more of these regimes, but again hardly anybody predicted the timing of the cataclysm of the Arab Spring. And nobody predicted the spark that set the tinderbox on fire — the self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi, a Tunisian vegetable seller, on Dec. 17, 2010.

Going further back, from the 1890s diplomats wondered how the Chinese empire — almost bankrupt, deeply corrupt, and badly led — could keep going. Indeed, much of the scramble for China was based on the assumption that China would eventually collapse.

But China did keep going, tinderbox though it was, somehow surviving even the shock of the Boxer Rebellion and its aftermath. The spark that eventually set the tinder alight was completely unpredicted. On Oct. 9, 1911, a leading opponent of the Qing monarchy was hospitalized after an accident and the hospital staff reported his identity to the authorities. In panic, his supporters launched an unprepared uprising that, to general surprise, succeeded.

Not all tinderboxes catch fire. Many avoid sparks long enough to dampen the tinder — to somehow deal with the challenges they face, to renew themselves and to stabilize. A lot of would-be revolutions do not happen.

The Ottoman Empire, a famous tinderbox in the last decades of the 19th century (the “Sick Man of Europe”), managed in the first decade of the 20th century to deal with enough of its problems to stumble on intact until the First World War. More recently, various regimes in Africa and in Latin America that might well have gone up in smoke have not done so — they stumbled on largely because no sparks have blown their way.

An old mural from the Ottoman Empire at Hagia Sophia Ayasofya in Istanbul, Turkey on June 6, 2015. | Image: fusion-of-horizons via Flickr (CC BY 2.0)

STARTING THE FIRE

In the case of North Korea, it’s easy to guess what the spark might be. It could be a riot over COVID-19 restrictions that gets out of hand. A final bad harvest that plunges hungry people into angry despair. An inept response to one of North Korea’s frequent natural disasters. A military accident. A nuclear test that goes wrong.

This is an entertaining parlor game. But the history of tinderboxes suggests strongly that the spark, if it comes, will be something that nobody thought of, perhaps with no obvious relation to the stability or otherwise of North Korea.

And the timing? Tomorrow? Next month? Next year? Never? Or indeed, yesterday? Bouazizi’s self-immolation was spectacular and widely reported, but few thought at the beginning that it would bring down President Ben Ali.

Look back at recent events in North Korea. Might one of those, in retrospect, have been the final spark? Will we, just for example, look back at Kim Jong Un’s speech on Oct. 17 admitting the lack of ideological mettle among his cadres as a fatal admission that he has lost the loyalty of his followers?

We don’t know. Hardly anybody has correctly predicted the timing of other sparks and it is most unlikely that we will predict the timing of the spark that ignites the North Korean tinderbox.

If, that is, it comes.

Edited by Bryan Betts

John Everard

John Everard was British Ambassador to North Korea, 2006–2008, following which he served on the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea. He writes and speaks regularly on North Korea issues.

10. US, Japan, S. Korea Officials to Meet in Tokyo Amid Escalating N. Korea Threats

Sustained, high level, trilateral, diplomatic engagement.

US, Japan, S. Korea Officials to Meet in Tokyo Amid Escalating N. Korea Threats

October 20, 2022 2:03 PM

Nike Ching

voanews.com

Washington —

Senior officials from the United States, Japan and South Korea will meet next week in Tokyo amid escalating threats from North Korea.

While the U.S. reaffirms its “ironclad” commitment to its allies, the State Department has declined to say whether Washington would consider the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula, and whether the South Korea government has made such a request.

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will participate in “a trilateral meeting with Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Mori Takeo and South Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyundong” in Tokyo next week, according to the State Department.

Sherman’s talks will cover a range of regional security issues, including North Korea’s missile launches and Taiwan. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday China is determined to bring Taiwan under its control, possibly by force, “on a much faster timeline.”

“Taiwan is a big part of” regional security that Sherman plans to discuss with allies in Tokyo, said a senior State Department official on Thursday during a phone briefing. “We expect cross (Taiwan) Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means.”

And as North Korea speeds up missiles launches, the senior official told VOA that U.S. “commitments to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remain ironclad.”

“We call on the DPRK to refrain from further provocations and engage in sustained and substantive dialogue,” said the senior official, referring to Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea’s official name.

Tuesday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said North Korea fired about 100 shells off its west coast and another 150 shells off its east coast, a day after South Korea kicked off its annual Hoguk defense drills on Monday that are designed to boost its ability to respond to North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.

Earlier this month, Sherman and her counterparts from Japan and South Korea held talks to condemn North Korea’s October 4 firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan that landed in the Pacific. It was the first such launch in five years, and prompted Japan to evacuate some residents in the area.

Senior officials have said the U.S. continues to be “open to dialogue without preconditions with the DPRK,” which they say is key to the ultimate goal of a completely denuclearized Korean Peninsula.

But North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un has rejected Washington’s proposal for dialogue, saying he will never give up nuclear weapons.

President Joe Biden's administration also faces tough questions on the diplomatic impasse and inability to deter North Korea from further provocation.

Reports Shed New Light on Last Hours of S.Korean Slain by North in 2020

By U.S. News Staff U.S. News & World Report6 min

View Original

By Hyonhee Shin

SEOUL (Reuters) - An investigation by the government of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is raising fresh questions about the death of a South Korean official in 2020, which the previous administration wrote off as a failed defection attempt.

Documents reviewed by Reuters from a parliamentary inquiry, the coast guard and a human rights watchdog provide previously unpublished details about the final moments of Lee Dae-jin, a state fishery ministry employee who died at sea at the hands of North Korean troops.

The parliamentary report shows that the coast guard failed to follow proper search procedures and that officials delayed sharing the news that he had been captured with other government ministries, which lawmakers say may have cost Lee his life.

Lee's death has become a sensitive issue in South Korea, in part because of the fight by his brother to clear his name. The previous administration of President Moon Jae-in had portrayed Lee as fleeing gambling debts, mental health issues and an unhappy life.

"There are multiple signs of hasty investigations and conclusions, and few senior officials in the coast guard, not to mention the presidential office and the military, had experience working aboard a ship," said Ha Tae-keung, a conservative lawmaker from Yoon's party who led the parliamentary inquiry, which concluded in late August.

Prosecutors are investigating senior Moon administration officials over Lee's death, including a national security adviser, two former intelligence chiefs, a former defence minister and a resigned head of the coast guard.

An official at the prosecutors' office, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter, said it had acquired the information in the reports over the course of its work and was considering it in its investigation. Prosecutors on Tuesday filed for arrest warrants against a former defence minister and the former coast guard chief. They are expected to conclude their inquiry in coming weeks.

The Board of Audit and Inspection, a state auditor, said on Oct. 14 that it had asked prosecutors to investigate 20 officials from five agencies on charges of dereliction of duty and violating audit laws, without providing details. At least seven of those officials already face a criminal investigation over allegations that they manipulated findings and botched rescue operations.

Former top officials and Moon's party have criticised the parliamentary investigation as a witch hunt by Yoon against his political foes.

A group of 21 lawmakers who served in Moon's government issued a statement in October saying the audit agency and prosecutors had joined forces to "deliberately distort and twist facts" to support "political retaliation" by Yoon's office.

Yoon's office said that those authorities operate independently and that it was not involved in their investigations.

Reuters was unable to contact Moon. Youn Kun-young, an opposition lawmaker who represents Moon, said that the initial investigations were based on military intelligence and not hastily conducted, and that Moon should "no longer be harassed for political retaliation."

BOTCHED RESCUE

On Sept. 22, 2020, Lee's colleagues reported him missing to a fisheries ministry office, which then informed the coast guard, when he did not show up for meals after a night shift aboard a government vessel monitoring fishing grounds off Korea's west coast, near the maritime border with North Korea.

The previously undisclosed documents from the parliamentary investigation, citing South Korean military officials, say that after Lee was found by North Koreans, he was kept in the water for nearly six hours as he drifted in and out of consciousness while soldiers interrogated him.

The soldiers lost him at one point, prompting a two-hour search before they found him and shot him to death, then burned his body. About 9:30 p.m. on Sept. 22, the South's military observed a fire across the border, which lasted 30-40 minutes, and concluded that Lee was dead, according to the investigation.

North Korea said at the time that the country's troops killed him in line with its COVID-19 rules after he illegally crossed the border and did not properly identify himself.

The parliamentary report concludes that the coast guard and navy violated rules during their initial rescue efforts by failing to seek help from other vessels and authorities nearby.

Although the coast guard said at the time that Lee had tried to swim north against the current - and therefore may have been trying to defect - according to the parliamentary inquiry's findings, the coast guard only provided part of the government's oceanographic data, omitting that currents could have carried him north.

After Lee was eventually spotted in North Korean waters, a small group of senior South Korean officials, including Moon's national security adviser, national intelligence agency chief, and defence minister - all of whom face criminal investigations over Lee's death - did not tell the foreign and unification ministries until shortly before the government announced his death the next day, Ha and other conservative lawmakers said in their report.

"The government left him to die without adequate rescue efforts, while systematically manipulating evidence to claim his defection, deceiving the public and misleading public opinion," they said in the report.

The foreign ministry told the lawmakers in June 2021 that if it had known earlier, it could have requested help from dozens of Chinese ships nearby, the report said. The Unification Ministry also said it would have directly contacted the North.

The foreign ministry confirmed to Reuters that it did not learn about Lee's case until after his death, and that it told lawmakers about the possibility of Chinese help "while replying to a hypothetical question."

The unification ministry declined to comment, citing the prosecutors' ongoing investigation.

A QUESTION OF DEFECTION

The defection allegation has haunted Lee's family, which refused to hold a funeral for him until last month, after the Yoon administration recanted the Moon government's claims.

Lee's brother, Lee Rae-jin, said two lawmakers with Moon's party offered days after his death to set up a fund for his family if he admitted to Lee's defection. Moon's party, the Democratic Party of Korea, and the two lawmakers – Hwang Hee and Kim Cheol-min – have publicly denied making that offer.

All seven of Lee's colleagues told investigators he had no reason to defect as he excelled at work, got along well with others and was uninterested in politics, according to the new documents.

In a previously undisclosed report dated July 2021, the National Human Rights Commission, an independent government body investigating at the request of Lee's brother, found that the coast guard had overstated Lee's gambling debt and fabricated its findings when describing his defection as an "escape from reality while in a panic".

In June 2022, the coast guard apologised for "causing confusion", and its chief and eight other senior officials resigned. The defence ministry also apologised.

Prosecutors have raided a presidential archive and the offices and homes of two former intelligence chiefs, a former defence minister and the resigned coast guard head.

The audit agency said in its Oct. 14 statement that one of the former spy chiefs, Park Jie-won, is suspected to have deleted an intelligence report that concluded it was impossible to say whether Lee was trying to defect.

Park did not respond to requests for comment. In a Facebook post last week, he denied removing any documents related to the case. He said in an interview with a local broadcaster in August that the raid was aimed at "intimidating and humiliating" him and the investigation is politically motivated.

The audit agency also said Suh Wook, the former defence minister, had ordered dozens of intelligence reports within the Military Intelligence Management System erased in a bid to conceal Lee's killing.

The defence ministry said Suh's position is that the intelligence reports were deleted in some channels to prevent irrelevant military units from accessing them, but that the original files were intact.

(Reporting by Hyonhee Shin; Editing by Josh Smith and Gerry Doyle)

Tags: diseases, South Korea, North Korea, Coronavirus, crime, Asia

12. American B-1B Bombers Land in Guam to 'Deter Adversaries' and Reassure Allies

The "Bone" (B-1) demonstrates strategic reassurance and strategic resolve.

American B-1B Bombers Land in Guam to 'Deter Adversaries' and Reassure Allies

By U.S. News Staff U.S. News & World Report2 min

View Original

(Reuters) - U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers landed in Guam this week in the long-range aircraft's second deployment to the island this year amid regional tension over Taiwan and the looming prospect of a new North Korean nuclear test.

The U.S. military confirmed their temporary deployment to the U.S. Pacific territory as part of a "bomber task force" mission on Thursday, a day after aircraft-spotting websites reported their flight from home bases in the United States.

"It is ... meant to send a message that the United States stands closely with its allies and partners to deter potential provocation," Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Pat Ryder told a briefing, when asked if the mission was aimed at sending North Korea a message.

The bombers' presence is also aimed at demonstrating that the United States has the capability to conduct global operations at any time, he added.

North Korea has conducted a record number of missile tests this year, including launching one over Japan. Officials in Washington and Seoul say North Korea also appears prepared to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017.

North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests since 2006.

The United States and its allies in South Korea and Japan have stepped up displays of military force in response to North Korea's missile tests, including conducting naval drills with a U.S. aircraft carrier and staging major field exercises for the first time in years.

B-1B bombers have participated in shows of force against North Korea in previous years. North Korea denounces military exercises by the United States and its allies as provocative and proof of hostile intentions.

During their temporary stay in Guam, the bombers will partner with unspecified allied forces for several training missions in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. Air Force said in a statement.

“The B-1 is an especially capable platform in this region, being able to travel large distances and bear significant firepower with precision and standoff munitions,” Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Mount, of the 37th Bomb Squadron, said in the statement.

Bomber task force missions "play a critical role in deterring potential adversaries and challenging their decision calculus", another officer said.

Tension has also been high in recent months over self-ruled Taiwan, which China claims.

A visit to the island in August by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi enraged China, which subsequently launched military drills near the island. Those have continued, although on a much reduced scale.

(Reporting by Josh Smith)

Tags: North Korea, United States, Guam

13. North Korean police told to improve security nationwide to protect leader Kim Jong Un

"Paranoia strikes deep."

Does Kim know something that we do not yet know? The regime is brittle - is this an indication?

North Korean police told to improve security nationwide to protect leader Kim Jong Un

The orders include creating a security network for better surveillance of the people.

By Myung Chul Lee for RFA Korean

2022.10.20

rfa.org

North Korean police are working to enhance security nationwide to ensure the safety of leader Kim Jong Un amid increased tensions on the Korean peninsula, sources in the country told Radio Free Asia.

In the past two months, North Korea returned to its brinkmanship strategy of repeated provocations by introducing a law that allows for preemptive nuclear strikes, test launching a series of missiles, including one that flew over Japan, and Pyongyang is widely believed to be preparing for another nuclear test, which would be its first since 2017.

Though state media waxes poetic about the necessity of such actions to deal with threats from abroad, orders from the top say that local authorities need to get their houses in order and eliminate all potential threats to the leadership from within, a judicial source in the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service on Oct. 17 on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

“On October 12, the Ministry of Social Security sent down a project agenda for protecting the safety of the Chief of the Revolution,” he said, using an honorific to describe Kim Jong Un. “This is in response to the recent increase in political tensions upsetting social stability.

“Police were ordered to find and eliminate factors that could be maneuvered by impure hostiles among the residents … in their jurisdiction within this month,” said the source. Impure hostiles are people who waver in their loyalty, who might influence others to do the same.

The Ministry of Social Security ordered that the police and social safety agencies create a tight surveillance network to identify problematic people and keep tabs on them, the source said.

“They ordered that the police must remove all subjects who have illegally entered their jurisdiction and return them to their place of origin as soon as possible … and prevent problematic subjects in their jurisdiction from leaving to other areas,” he said.

In North Korea, people cannot freely move about the country and settle where they please without permission. Once they are in a new area they must also register with the local authorities. Living outside of the area one is registered is technically illegal.

“Search and patrol checks for problematic subjects should be conducted at least once each day in cooperation with security forces, special agencies, and the Worker-Peasant Red Guards,” he said. The Worker-Peasant Red Guards are a paramilitary militia, and the largest civil defense force in the country.

In addition to keeping tabs on people, police must check the performance of their personnel and review the status of their security-related equipment, a judicial source in the northwestern province of North Pyongan told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely.

“From Nov. 1, encrypted terms and documents must be used in the process of implementing and directing escort projects,” he said, referring to times important leaders require a security detail when visiting or moving through an area.

“[Police] must also make trips to the railways and roads by the end of this month to assess risk factors and reflect on security plans for escort projects. Authorities instructed the ministries to build an operation plan and mobilize personnel at a random time for a No. 1 escort operation drill before the 20th,” he said. No. 1 events are those that involve Kim Jong Un.

While implementing the orders, police are also supposed to take extra precaution to prevent the spread of rumors.

“They must thoroughly control and report on the trends and public sentiments of the residents under the pretext of recent political tensions,” he said.

“But these days, the officials are complaining of fatigue as they work late into the night to deal with the huge pile of orders coming from the top,” the second source said. “Some of the officials complain that the central party’s orders ignore the reality of provincial areas and they keep sending more and more.”

Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee and Leejin J. Chung. Written in English by Eugene Whong.

rfa.org

14. Fears for Kim Jong Un's safety rock North Korea

Circular reporting based on the RFA report from yesterday.

But this bears watching.

Fears for Kim Jong Un's safety rock North Korea

Fears for Kim Jong Un's safety rock North Korea: Police are ordered to boost security nationwide amid crumbling loyalty towards dictator

Korean peninsular is currently experiencing a period of heightened tensions
But while the North presents a united front, it would seem not all is well within
Kim has ordered local police to 'eliminate' all potential leadership threats
Officers have also been ordered to monitor the spread of rumours in their region
However, sources have also said police are growing tired with their workload

By CHRIS JEWERS FOR MAILONLINE

PUBLISHED: 05:42 EDT, 21 October 2022 | UPDATED: 06:47 EDT, 21 October 2022

Daily Mail · by Chris Jewers For Mailonline · October 21, 2022

North Korean police have been ordered to boost security nationwide to ensure dictator Kim Jong Un is protected and to 'eliminate' threats to his party's leadership, amid reports of crumbling loyalty towards him.

The news comes at a time of increased tension on the Korean peninsular, where analysts fear the isolated country is preparing for another nuclear test.

In the past two months, North Korea's strategy of brinkmanship has appeared reinvigorated. Kim introduced a new law that allows for preemptive nuclear strikes, and has launched a series of test missiles - including one that flew over Japan.

North Korean police have been ordered to boost security nationwide to ensure dictator Kim Jong Un (pictured during a visit to a school on October 17) is protected, amid reports of crumbling loyalty towards him

But while North Korea presents a united front to the world, it would seem Kim has been spooked by dissent from inside his own locked-down borders.

Local officials have been ordered by North Korea's highest authorities to get their houses in order, and to take out all potential threats to the leadership from within, Radio Free Asia (RFA) has reported - citing a judicial source.

The Ministry of Social Security - a law enforcement agency overseen by the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, which is headed up by Kim himself - has ordered the police and social safety agencies to create a tight network of surveillance.

Its goal is to identify people considered problematic to the regime, and to keep tabs on their activities, and ultimately 'eliminate' them, the source told the news outlet.

On October 12, the Ministry 'sent down a project agenda for protecting the safety of the Chief of the Revolution (an honorific used for Kim),' the source said. 'This is in response to the recent increase in political tensions upsetting social stability.'

He continued: 'Police were ordered to find and eliminate factors that could be maneuvered by impure hostiles among the residents … in their jurisdiction within this month.' Impure hostiles refers to people whose loyalty to North Korea's supreme leader may have wavered - and who might influence others to take the same path.

The source also said that police have been ordered to 'remove all subjects who have illegally entered their jurisdiction' and to prevent 'problematic subjects from leaving their jurisdiction to other areas'.

North Koreans are not allowed to move freely and and live where they please in the country without permission from the powers that be.

Local officials have been ordered by North Korea's highest authorities to get their houses in order, and to eliminate all potential threats to the leadership from within, Radio Free Asia (RFA) has reported - citing a judicial source. Pictured: Kim poses with graduates in military uniform

Pictured: Kim Jong Un pats the face of an uncomfortable-looking graduate in military uniform

If they are permitted to move, they must then register with local authorities, and living outside their designated area is illegal.

The judicial source told RFA that police have been ordered to carry out daily 'search and patrol checks' for such problematic citizens.

This will be done in cooperation with 'security forces, special agencies, and the Worker-Peasant Red Guards', he said. The Worker-Peasant Red Guards is a North Korean paramilitary group, and forms the country's largest civil defence force.

Police have also been tasked with keeping tabs on and reporting 'rumours', and told to work to prevent their spread among those in their jurisdiction.

'They must thoroughly control and report on the trends and public sentiments of the residents under the pretext of recent political tensions,' the source told RFA.

However, officials are growing tired with the workload, he said, with some complaining of fatigue thanks to being made to work late into the night.

'Some of the officials complain that the central party's orders ignore the reality of provincial areas and they keep sending more and more,' a second source told RFA.

In this photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center in white, inspects military exercises at an undisclosed location in North Korea, Oct. 6

Pictured: Kim Jong Un stands on a hill overlooking a missile test launch in North Korea

News of the crackdown came days after a terrified North Korean graduate was pictured looking at the floor while Kim embraced him in his latest propaganda stunt.

The despot was visiting a school in Pyongyang, possibly just days after launching a series of missiles in the direction of Japan, escalating tensions in the region.

The leader was shown grinning as he put his arm round the young man, wearing military uniform, and cupped his face with his other hand.

The graduate looks at the ground, clearly uncomfortable with the sudden embrace from one of the world's most infamous dictators.

Pyongyang fired 100 more artillery shells off its west coast on Wednesday, South Korea's military said, just hours after it launched hundreds of shells into the sea off its east and west coasts in what it called a grave warning to South Korea.

North Korea has been carrying out weapons tests at an unprecedented pace this year, firing a short-range ballistic missile and hundreds of artillery rounds near the heavily armed inter-Korean border on Friday.

On Monday, South Korean troops kicked off their annual Hoguk defence drills designed to boost their ability to respond to North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.

Pyongyang has angrily reacted to the South Korean and joint military activities, calling them provocations and threatening countermeasures. Seoul says its exercises are regular and defence-oriented.

North Korea fired the latest shots at around 12.30pm, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement, urging Pyongyang to halt acts threatening peace and security in the region.

In Washington, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said, referring to North Korea by the initials of its official name: 'We are aware of these reports. We call on the DPRK to cease all provocative and threatening actions.'

Earlier, a spokesman for the General Staff of the North's Korean People's Army (KPA) said the latest move was in response to South Korea's firing of over 10 shells of multiple rocket launchers near the frontline between 8.27am and 9.40am.

'Our Army strongly warns the enemy forces to immediately stop the highly irritating provocative act in the frontline areas,' the KPA official said.

Wednesday's exchange of firings comes shortly after the North fired some 100 shells into the sea off its west coast and shot a further 150 rounds off its east coast on Tuesday night.

North Korea said later the shots were designed to send a 'serious warning' and 'powerful military countermeasure' to South Korea.

Daily Mail · by Chris Jewers For Mailonline · October 21, 2022

15. Infomation warfare in north Korea.

Since today's news has a lot of infomraiton warfare and potential instablity in north Korea I thoguth I would share this initial draft of a section that will be part of a larger monograph published after the new year on informaiton warfare arund the world.

Information Warfare in north Korea

I. Introduction

The ROK/U.S. alliance has successfully deterred war on the Korean peninsula since the Armistice Agreement of 1953. This is arguably a successful application of all the elements of national power to include the information instrument. However, The ROK/U.S. alliance has never demonstrated the will go beyond deterrence to aggressively employ their nations’ information capabilities to change the security conditions in Korea. The alliance has shied away from information warfare.

Information has the potential to alter the security situation in Korea though it is not a “silver bullet” and it will take time to achieve effects. However, it is a low cost investment that can pay significant dividends in the future.

Kim Jong Un is conducting political warfare as the central part of his strategy to shape the conditions to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the “Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.” The alliance must conduct a superior form of political warfare. Information warfare is the central component of a sound strategy.

II. Adversary Information Warfare

The Kim regime leads with its Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD) in executing its political warfare strategy. It is responsible for internal and external messaging and controls all media in north Korea. Although its messages are often satirized for their hyperbole and over-the top-rhetoric, they, more often than not, transmit regime policies and telegraph actions for both internal and external consumption.

The Korean Workers Party (KWP) United Front Department (UFD) conducts both cyber information operations targeting the ROK public specifically, as well using sleeper agents in the ROK to complement the cyber operations. The Cultural Exchange Bureau (225^th) conducts covert action in the ROK to establish underground political parties and recruit and sympathizers focused on fomenting unrest and revolution. The intent is to subvert ROK population’s confidence in its own government.

The priority for the regime is control of the population. While the regime uses the PAD to ensure ideological indoctrination, the regime expends significant resources in trying to prevent the Korean people in the north from being exposed to information, primarily from the South, but from the rest of the world as well. Although it may seem counterintuitive, Kim fears the Korean people more than he does the ROK and U.S. combined militaries. The people, armed with information, are an existential threat to the regime. However, Kim, and specifically his sister Kim Yo Jong, has used information warfare to threaten the ROK, and then manipulate it into passing the so -called anti-leaflet law in December 2020 to protect the regime from information from the South. Kim Yo Jong also blames COVID 19 on leaflets from South Korea which illustrates how much the regime fears information.

The regime’s aggressive external information warfare is focused first on subverting South Korea to weaken its institutions and create conditions that undermine legitimacy to influence the people to accept unification on it terms. The PAD and UFD use broadcasts, leaflets, social media, cyber activities, and both “useful idiots” and recruited sympathizers in the South to transmit regime messages directly and indirectly.

To create conditions for domination the regime seeks to split the ROK/U.S. alliance to ultimately drive U.S. forces from the peninsula in the hope that it will then have superior combat power over the ROK. The highest ranking defector, Hwang Jang Yop said the only reasons that the north has not attacked the South is because of the presence of U.S. forces and the belief that the U.S. would use nuclear weapons in the event of war. This is an example of effective deterrence but also helps explain why the regime has doggedly pursued nuclear weapons since the 1950s.

A major element of the regime’s political warfare strategy is blackmail diplomacy. Through increased tensions using overblown rhetoric, threats, and provocations, Kim seeks to extort concessions from the alliance and the international community by creating a fear of resumption of hostilities. Words, combined with actions, speak louder than words alone.

Lastly, the regime seeks to be recognized as a nuclear power to ensure that it maintains its nuclear capability for deterrence, blackmail diplomacy, and warfighting. To this end the regime exploits the pundits in the South and the U.S. who call for arms control negotiations. Once arms control negotiations begin there will no hope for denuclearization or an end to the human rights atrocities in the north for as long as the Kim regime remains in power. Kim and the UFD will assess his political warfare strategy a success and double down.

III. United States Response

Frankly the U.S. response to north Korean information warfare has been nearly non-existent except in two areas. The first is deterrence. Again, the ROK/U.S. alliance has successfully deterred war for 69 years by demonstrating strategic reassurance and strategic resolve to defend South Korea with a combined military force: the ROK/U.S. Combined Forces Command. But this has bred complacency and combined with a lack of will for employing information warfare, has allowed the north to execute a political warfare campaign that keeps the regime in power and create security dilemmas for the alliance and the region.

The one second positive influence activity is the work done by the Korean Services of Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. They have long down yeoman’s work trying to penetrate the north with news and practical information. With increased resourcing they could significantly expand their work to provide the Korean people in the north with facts, knowledge, and the truth to help the people gain understanding of Korea and the outside world.

An overt information warfare campaign can not only support deterrence and diplomacy, but it can also create dilemmas for Kim Jong Un and cause pressure that leads to changes in behavior and decision making or simply a change inside north Korea.

While there are fears of the regime acting out in response to information this should not be allowed to paralyze the alliance. Yes, Kim Yo Jong ordered the destruction of the ROK liaison building in the Kaesong Industrial Complex in 2020. But despite threats, it has never attacked the balloon launches by escapees in the South the fear of which was used as partial justification for the anti-leaflet law.

The most important response to north Korea’s political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and advanced warfighting strategies is to recognize the strategies, understand them, expose them, and then attack them with a superior political warfare strategy based on information warfare while maintaining military readiness and deterrence.

Every time the ROK and U.S. respond with statements about the north Korean nuclear and missile threats it reinforces regime legitimacy. The PAD uses these statements to justify the sacrifices the Korean people in the north must make as Kim prioritizes these over their welfare and human rights. However, whenever human rights abuses are exposed, the regime’s legitimacy is undermined.

What can an effective information warfare campaign do? Most importantly, it will support deterrence by demonstrating the alliance is operating from a position of strength. There are three specific outcomes to strive for. First, it seeks to change Kim’s behavior. Second, the elite and military leadership may force Kim to change his decision making. Lastly, it could cause the people to effect change on their own. Although dangerous it is what will eventually cause the necessary change to end the regime’s threats and human rights abuses and will lead to a solution to the “Korea question” (paragraph 60 of the Armistice), which is the unnatural division of the peninsula.

In addition, an information warfare campaign can respond to every north Korea action with themes and messages that show Kim that his strategies will fail. The alliance will never bend to his will.

There is one other outcome that will likely occur. Information will help prepare the Korean people for unification. This is arguably the most important long term objective.

IV. Recommendations.

Deterring war must remain the overarching priority for the ROK/U.S. alliance. However, information warfare can play an effective role in both supporting that while exerting pressure on Kim Jong Un like he has never felt which could cause a change in behavior or change in north Korea. The alliance should execute a superior political warfare strategy that consists of three lines of effort: a human rights upfront approach, information and influence activities, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea. The following are the highlights of what should be included as part of an overt information warfare campaign.

- Overarching narrative: Every time it is necessary to respond to the regime’s nuclear and missile activities the alliance must include a human rights response. For example, Kim Jong Un’s deliberate decision to prioritize nuclear and missile development is solely responsible for the suffering of the Korea people in the north.

- Develop themes and messages based on the 1919 Korean Declaration of Independence

- Establish an alliance organization to plan and conduct combined political warfare with a supporting information warfare campaign.

- Establish a Defector Information Institute to harness the expertise of key commentators from the north to shape themes and messages and advise on all aspect of the information warfare campaign.

- Harness the power of civil society, empower escapees from the north to continue their information work, and encourage free nations to provide information to the Korean people in the north.

- Resource the Korean Services of Voice of American and Radio Free Asia to increase broadcasts to a level that optimizes access and coverage.

- Design an overt information warfare campaign targeting the Korean people based on Information, Knowledge, Truth, and Understanding

o Information: massive quantities of information from entertainment to news.

o Knowledge – practical information on how to effect change, best practices for agriculture and market activity, educational lessons without Juche influence.

o Truth – the truth about the regime and the situation in north Korea and the outside world.

o Understanding – help the Korean people in the north to understand the inalienable and universal rights that belong to all human beings.

In conclusion, the only way to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through unification. This requires the establishment of a free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK). An information warfare campaign will make one of the most important contributions to this outcome.

Note for the above:

Examples of a subtle influence activity can be seen in this paper. First, the "n" in north Korea is always lowercase. This is reminiscent of the author's experience in the 1980s and 1990s, when this was a common practice among the military forces in Korea. It is a statement that the north and its regime are not recognized as a legitimate nation. This also aligns with the ROK Constitution, which claims sovereignty over the entire Korean peninsula and all Koreans. Second the name "north Korean" is not used. Instead, they are described as the Korean people living in the north. Again, this is in keeping with the ROK Constitution, but it also reinforces the idea that there is one Korean people. Lastly, those Koreans from the north living in the South or elsewhere are called escapees or refugees. While some high-ranking officials, such as Hwang Jong Yop, may correctly be considered defectors, escapees better describes these people. Defector is a pejorative term that connotes being a traitor to one's country. These Koreans have escaped the most despotic regime in the modern era and should be treated with respect.

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

V/R

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Phone: 202-573-8647

Personal Email: d avid.maxwell161@gmail.com

Web Site: www.fdd.org

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Subscribe to FDD’s new podcast, Foreign Podicy

FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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