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Grains put on an impressive rally from this morning's lows. All commodities closed around unchanged as some overarching stories kept uncertainty and volatility alive. Brazilian production cuts and lingering doubts over safrinha corn weather, the overall fundamental situation and the upcoming U.S. stocks and acreage figures are some of these stories. May soybeans settled at $11.96-3/4/bu, their highest finish in a month. Beans failed to break $12 again today (last $12 was Feb. 13), though they are 6% off the Feb. 29 contract lows. May beans have popped above the 20 day moving average, but have been below the 50 day moving average since December. May corn is also above the 20 day moving average but below the 50, and it has come up 8% from the Feb. 26 low.
I have included some charts from Chris Robinson below where he shows the status of new crop corn and soybeans. On new corn, we are just at the 50-day average... but we have a ways to get to the 100-day average and the 8-month bear trendline. On new crop soybeans, we have now surpassed the 50-day which puts in a bit of a floor for us, so now we have to start chopping away at the 100-day.
Commodity Weather Group continues to note building concerns for northern Brazil safrinha corn going forward.
Russian refineries faced another round of attacks today, with Ukrainian drones damaging and causing a blaze at Rosneft's largest refinery in Ryazan as well as halting operations at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery just across Ukraine's eastern border. This follows similar attacks seen yesterday on Lukoil's massive NORSI refinery in Kirishi, not far to Moscow's east, as Ukraine continues to show their widening range as they ramp-up their targeting of Russian energy infrastructure.
Friday’s February NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in at 178.1 million bushels, down from 185.8 mbu in January but above 165.4 mbu last February, and topping the largest Feb figure on record (166.3 mbu in 2020) if realized.
Today's EIA report showed that commercial crude oil stocks decreased 1.5 million barrels to 447 million, while ethanol decreased 0.3 million to 25.8. Ethanol production decreased 33 thousand barrels per day to 1,024 thousand.
France’s ag ministry cut the country’s wheat export outlook for 2023-24.
As a result, French wheat stocks at the end of the 2023-24 marketing year are now projected at 3.74 MMT, nearly 47% above 2022-23 and a 19-year high. China may have cancelled some wheat purchases from France, coinciding with confirmed U.S. wheat cancellations totaling about 500,000 tonnes. This could be linked with the recent slide in prices.
Commodity brokerage Allendale estimated 2024 U.S. corn plantings at 93.5 million acres in their annual farmer survey; that’s down from 94.6 mln ac in 2023 but above the USDA’s 91.0 mln ac Ag Outlook figure. Soybean plantings were pegged at 85.8 mln ac, up from 83.6 mln ac last year and a million above the initial USDA. All wheat seedings of 47.6 mln ac would be down from 49.6 mln ac last year but above the 47.0 mln ac USDA estimate.
Export sales are due out tomorrow. Estimates are below. Funds were thought to have been mixed today.
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