THIS WEEK IN WASHINGTON
September 23, 2022
Welcome to the Georgia edition of This Week in Washington. Thank you for your interest in politics and policy from the Peach State to the Potomac.
 
Both the Senate and the House returned to Washington right after Labor Day, and both are scheduled to leave town by the end of September. Patrick Robertson has written an excellent summary of Congress’ legislative agenda – what’s possible in the next 10 days and what is going to get pushed off until the lame duck session.  Patrick’s Washington Whispers articles are always good, and this week’s is exceptionally well done.
 
Jesse Weathington is out enjoying the first days of Fall with a pumpkin spice latte. So, unfortunately, we will have to wait until the next edition of TWIW for his Gold Dome Report. Ramona Lessen monitors the September 20th hearing of the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, entitled “Tightening the Screws on Russia.” Of course, make sure to check out the Infographs on current hot topics. 
 
While Patrick summarized the legislative agenda, the political agenda is also on the front burner, and the water is boiling. Republicans expect to take back the House of Representatives; the question is how many seats they will hold next January. The very conservative low is about 220, and the realistic high is around 230.  Today, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is presenting the House Republicans’ ‘Commitment to America’ in Pittsburgh, which they hope will help them achieve the biggest majority possible in the next Congress.
 
The Senate is way too close to call. The key states have been – and still are – Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republicans had momentum through the spring, but Democrats took some back over the summer. Republicans now sense a slight breeze at their back as inflation, interest rates, and the economy become more impactful. Senate Republicans are beginning to feel cautiously optimistic that they could hold a one or two seat majority next January.
 
In case you missed it, check out last week’s Total Spectrum Spotlight interview with Nathan Gonzales, the Editor and Publisher of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis of Senate, House, gubernatorial, and presidential elections. Nathan provides important context and fascinating observations on November’s elections.  
 
We’ll be back in two weeks with the next issue of This Week in Washington.
 
As always… stay safe, healthy, AND sane.

Todd Smith
Chairman, Georgia Group

Jesse Weathington
Director, Georgia Group
Washington Whispers
by Patrick Robertson, Total Spectrum Strategic Consultant
 
Congress returned after Labor Day from its summer break and its to-do list has narrowed as September marches on.
 
Coming into the month, the Senate had hoped to vote on a bill to codify the right for same-sex couples to marry, pass the annual defense authorization bill, pass a permitting reform bill authored by Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), and pass a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government beyond the end of Fiscal Year 2022 (FY22), which ends at midnight on September 30.
 
But since Congress returned, a number of these items have been pushed until after the election or even later. First, Democratic and Republican Senators announced that they would put off a vote on the same sex marriage bill until after the election. The bill negotiators, who include Senators Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Susan Collins (R-ME), have been working for months to agree on a product that will get 60 votes in the Senate. This delay will give them more time to find the 60 votes they will surely need to clear the filibuster.
 
Congress has passed an annual defense authorization bill for the better part of six decades. The Senate has not debated this year’s version, but the House passed a bill with almost 330 votes and defense negotiators have decided to conference a final product that both chambers can pass in a lame duck session following the November election. This strategy has been used in years past and observers expect that the bill will eventually pass.
 
In exchange for his vote on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) got assurances from Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to consider a permitting reform bill that would make it easier to get federal permits for infrastructure projects, especially in the energy sector. This agreement was necessary because the changes Senator Manchin is seeking could not be considered under the Senate’s limited budget reconciliation rules that the Senate used to pass the IRA.
 
Senator Manchin released his bill this week which proposes these permitting changes:
  • A maximum time to consider federal permit requests;
  • Concurrent review of permit application by multiple federal agencies;
  • A new designation of projects of “strategic national importance” to receive expedited consideration;
  • Some shorter timelines for legal challenges to federal permitting actions; and
  • Enhance federal government authority over interstate transmission lines.
 
Leader Schumer and Senator Manchin are working to insert these changes into the extension of government funding because it is a bill that will get 60 votes. They are banking on Republican support for both the funding bill and the permitting reform bill carrying over to make this package pass the Senate. But there are a few warning signs. Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) has released her own permitting reform bill with 46 Republican Senate cosponsors, which gives those Republicans cover for opposing the Manchin plan if they want to do so. Some Republican Senators are suggesting they could tank the deal as revenge on Democrats who used budget reconciliation to pass their priorities. In addition, 72 House Democrats have said they oppose the Manchin plan. Just yesterday, Sen. Capito announced she will vote in favor of Sen. Manchin’s bill if it is included in the CR.
 
Finally, in addition to some of the concerns being raised on the left, top House Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy is currently urging House Republicans to oppose the CR over their concerns on border funding. On Friday, Leader McCarthy will be in Pittsburgh, PA to announce Republicans’ unified message, called “Commitment to America.”
Partner and
Georgia Group Chairman

Partner and
Georgia Group Director

Partner

Partner
TOTAL SPECTRUM SPOTLIGHT:
Nathan Gonzales
Labor Day starts the final lap toward the finish line for this year’s elections.
 
In this Total Spectrum Spotlight, Congressman Erik Paulsen speaks with Nathan Gonzales, Editor and Publisher of Inside Elections, a publication which provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House, governor and president. Mr. Gonzales also serves as Elections Analyst for CQ Roll Call.
 
Mr. Gonzales shares his insights on the GOP’s momentum going into November’s midterm election and how the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision may have changed that momentum. He also explores whether results from special elections should be considered as trend indicators, and which Senate races are surprising analysts – and the potential for another runoff in Georgia.
INFOGRAPHS
Click image to download full report
What you need to know about
Student Debt Forgiveness
What you need to know about Regulating the Metaverse
Death rate tripled for unvaccinated Americans prior to launch of new Omicron booster
Omicron boosters approved, but fewer Americans getting new doses
U.S. agricultural imports forecast to reach a record high in 2023
USDA wants to change how poultry farmers are paid
In short, there are a lot of twists and turns remaining in the debate to pass a funding bill before September 30 and the Congress has left a lot of work for itself when it returns after the November midterm elections. Lame duck sessions of Congress go one of two ways – either a lot of bipartisan dealmaking happens or Congress does the bare minimum, sometimes even punting decisions to the new Congress in the new year. 
 
At this point, Congress is banking on having some cooperation in the lame duck but no one can know if that will be true until the political dynamic is set post-election. As a reminder, the 2020 Senate landscape was not clear until January 2021 with runoffs and recounts, so there could be an even more compressed timeline.
 
Most observers predict that Congress will pass a short-term funding bill before September 30 to fund the government until either December 9 or December 16, and then decide if anything else can ride on that bill or if all items will need to wait until after the midterms.
Hearing Report
by Ramona Lessen, Executive Director, Total Spectrum

Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee Hearing on “Tightening the Screws on Russia”
Tuesday, September 20, 2022; 9:00 a.m.
 
To view a livestream of the hearing please click here.
 
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Chairman
 
Senator Patrick J. Toomey (R-PA), Ranking Member
 
Witnesses:
The Honorable Elizabeth Rosenberg
Assistant Secretary For Terrorist Financing And Financial Crimes
U.S. Department of the Treasury
 
Mr. Andrew C. Adams
Director, Task Force KleptoCapture
United States Department of Justice
This e-newsletter is produced by Total Spectrum/SGA and Total Spectrum Georgia. The views expressed herein may include subjective commentary and analysis that are the views of the editors and authors alone. Information in this e-newsletter is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but that cannot be guaranteed as independently investigated or verified. Information in this e-newsletter is not an endorsement, advertisement, recommendation, or any type of advice, political, legal, financial, or otherwise. With questions about the content of this e-newsletter, please contact Total Spectrum Georgia.