Quotes of the Day:

"The future promise of any nation can be directly measured by the present prospects of its youth."

- John F. Kennedy

"What can be more soothing, at once to a man's Pride, and to his Conscience, than the conviction that, in taking vengeance on his enemies for injustice done him, he has simply to do them justice in return?" -

 Edgar Allan Poe

"A hero is someone who has given his or her life to something bigger than oneself." 

- Joseph Campbell

1. N. Korea tries to profit from Israel-Hamas war; S. Korea looks for intel blind spots

2. Defense chief says N. Korea could launch spy satellite in late Nov. with Russian aid

3. N. Korea slams U.S. test launch of Minuteman III ICBM

4. Press Statement of Spokesman of Korean Jurists Committee (north Korea on Hamas and Gaza)

5. North Korean defectors take on China over forced returns of fellow escapees

6. South Korea to launch 1st spy satellite Nov. 30

7. 7. US Army takes responsibility for stray bullet that struck moving SUV in South Korea

8. Exclusive: South Korea lining up banks to help finance $22 billion arms sale to Poland

9. N Korea issues nuclear threat over US-S Korea space alliance

10. [INTERVIEW] Ruling party's reform czar calls for flexible immigration policy

11. New deputy chief of Korea-U.S. combined command calls for strong resolve to deter war

12. Japan returns favor again by flying 15 Korean nationals out of Israel

13.  China supported sanctions on North Korea's nuclear program. It's also behind their failure

14. South Korea increasingly pessimistic as North Korean arsenal expands

1. N. Korea tries to profit from Israel-Hamas war; S. Korea looks for intel blind spots

​In addition to money, there is the added benefit that Kim thinks he can be a "player" in the international community.

N. Korea tries to profit from Israel-Hamas war; S. Korea looks for intel blind spots

2 Koreas draw their own lessons from geopolitical instability in Middle East

The Korea Times · November 3, 2023

North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un, center, examines a rocket assembly hangar at the Vostochny Cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky, in Russia's Far East, Sept. 13. AP-Yonhap

2 Koreas draw their own lessons from geopolitical instability in Middle East

By Kang Hyun-kyung

The Israel-Hamas War has become the subject of analysis, as countries, particularly those facing security threats from their neighbors, study the conflict to bolster asymmetric warfare capabilities to defeat their enemies.

South Korea is striving to learn lessons from Israel’s intelligence failure and fix blind spots in its defenses in order to detect and foil a possible Hamas-like attack by North Korea.

North Korea, meanwhile, is trying to profit from the war as it sees the conflict as an opportunity to sell weapons to rogue states and terrorist groups to counter sanctions imposed by the West. The North also revealed its intention of using the conflict as a testing ground for its weapons and tactics, according to the National Intelligence Service (NIS).

Quoting the spy agency, Rep. Yoo Sang-bum of the ruling People Power Party (PPP) said on Wednesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is trying to take advantage of the Israel-Hamas War for multiple purposes.

“We’re told that the NIS had gathered circumstantial evidence that Kim Jong-un had directed his deputies to find out ways to help Palestine with a comprehensive assistance package,” he told reporters after the National Assembly inspection of the NIS.

During the closed-door session, the intelligence agency was quoted as saying that Kim’s “military experimentalism” could be emboldened and assured regarding the capabilities of North Korea’s long-range artillery by the effectiveness of Hamas’ preemptive surprise attacks.

The NIS also raised the possibility that North Korea may attempt to sell weapons to third-world countries as it previously sold anti-tank weapons and rockets to Hamas and Hezbollah, according to the lawmaker.

Game changer

The Israel-Hamas War has become a game-changing event for South Korea as witnessed by the shift in its traditional stance toward geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

Before the war, whenever political turmoil occurred in the region, all eyes were fixed on the fluctuation of global oil prices.

South Korea imports oil, mostly from the Middle East. A rise in oil prices due to political instability deals a blow to the nation's export-reliant economy. Therefore, in the past, South Korea's primary concerns centered on the geopolitical stability of the Middle East.

However, a seismic change has occurred in the way South Korea views Middle Eastern affairs after Hamas’s surprise assaults on Israel on Oct. 7th.

After the Israel-Hamas War, South Korea has grown wary of the possible fallout on its own security stemming from the Middle East crisis.

Like it or not, South Korea has become a stakeholder in the Israel-Hamas War, because North Korea became part of the conflict.

The North sold weapons to Hamas and Hezbollah and helped them improve their military capabilities one way or another by passing their tactics on to the militant groups.

North Korea’s arms sales to radical militant groups and rogue states pose a potential threat to South Korea as the North is expected to use the money it earned from the arms deals to develop more weapons of mass destruction, which in turn will pose a greater security threat to the South.

A glass door bears the logo of the National Intelligence Service at its headquarters in Seoul's southern district of Seocho, Wednesday. Yonhap

Human intelligence

The Israel-Hamas War has alarmed South Korea.

As intelligence experts put it, Israel’s Mossad is one of the best intelligence agencies on the planet. Mossad, however, was blindsided, allowing lots of damage to be inflicted on Israeli civilians in the early days of the war.

According to a media report, the military and intelligence authorities in South Korea have begun to examine, review and find ways to strengthen human intelligence, also known as HUMINT.

“Our intelligence agencies’ capabilities of collecting intelligence were significantly weakened during the previous Moon Jae-in government because of its policy of building peace on the Korean Peninsula,” an unnamed official was quoted as saying.

After the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, the source added that concerns grew inside the government about South Korea’s weakened human intelligence capabilities.

The reaction came amid accusations that an over-reliance on technology by the Israeli espionage agencies was the root cause of their intelligence failure.

Marc Polymeropoulos, who worked for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) for 26 years, likened Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks on Israel to the U.S.' 9/11.

He said Israel’s over-reliance on technology, such as a border fence and sensors while neglecting human intelligence, made the nation vulnerable to Hamas’s attacks.

Soo Kim, a Policy Practice Area Lead at LMI Consulting and a former CIA analyst, said human intelligence matters and its value will not wane in the digital era.

“HUMINT still plays a critical role in the digital era, no matter how much our dependence on technology has increased over the years,” she said in an email message to The Korea Times. “Physical and verbal interactions, as well as the observations made by human assets cannot be replaced by technology. Not to mention, since there are ways to circumvent detection and intelligence collection in, say, electronic sources, it’s important to approach intelligence collection from a latticed perspective.”

A retired intelligence officer said on condition of anonymity that he agrees that human intelligence is still valuable in the digital era.

“Without supportive human intelligence, it’s difficult to decipher information gathered from signal intelligence,” he told The Korea Times.

Signal intelligence, also known as SIGINT, refers to the gathering of intelligence by intercepting communications between people or from electronic signals not directly used in communication.

The former intelligence officer declined to give a definitive position concerning Israel’s intelligence failure.

“With the given information, I cannot conclude whether the Israelis failed to collect intelligence about Hamas’s attacks or not. In case intelligence officers gathered related intelligence, but policymakers didn’t act on it for some reason, we don’t call a situation like this an intelligence failure. It will be more accurate if we call it a policy failure,” he said. “But again, I have no idea which was the case, so I cannot tell whether it was an intelligence failure or not.”

Bruce Bechtol Jr., a former intelligence officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said that weaknesses in human intelligence are a shared concern for South Korea, the United States and Israel.

“Big weakness for Korea and the U.S. is human intelligence,” he said, adding that was the case for Israel, too.

“Because Hamas knows how good Mossad is — Mossad is very good, maybe they didn’t use the internet (when they planned the surprise attacks because their communications can be detected by the Israelis). Maybe they didn’t talk about this on cellphones… maybe everything was in person.”

If this was the case, Bechtol Jr. said the only thing the Israelis could do would be to have someone inside Hamas who could feed them information about what was going on there.

“It’s very obvious Israelis didn’t have that,” he said.

Kim, a former CIA analyst, said intelligence is, in many ways, more of an art form than a science.

“So, a key skill -- one that's more nuanced and perhaps even subjective -- is the ability to read one's adversary. This is more of a mental and perceptual capability than a measurable or mechanical skill,” she said.

People gather to show their solidarity with the Palestinian people and to protest the bombing of the Baptist Hospital and Jabalia Camp in the Gaza Strip, at Parliament Square in Rabat, Morocco, Wednesday. EPA-Yonhap

The Korea Times · November 3, 2023

2. Defense chief says N. Korea could launch spy satellite in late Nov. with Russian aid

Defense chief says N. Korea could launch spy satellite in late Nov. with Russian aid | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 3, 2023

By Kim Eun-jung

SEOUL, Nov. 3 (Yonhap) -- Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said Friday that North Korea may have delayed its plan to make a third attempt to launch a spy satellite to fix technological glitches in the third-stage system with Russian assistance.

North Korea made two botched attempts to put a reconnaissance satellite into orbit in May and August and vowed to try again in October, but it failed to meet its self-imposed deadline.

The first attempt failed due to problems in the booster, while Pyongyang's state media blamed the second flight's failure on a flawed third-stage emergency blasting system.

Shin weighed the possibility of Pyongyang's making a third attempt in late November to reflect technological guidance from Russia following the rare summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in September.

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik briefs on the 2024 budget proposal during a parliamentary session held at the National Assembly on Nov. 1, 2023. (Yonhap)

"North Korea could try again on its own even if it fails, but the launch may have been delayed as Russia provided specific technical guidance (for the satellite). We place more emphasis on the latter," Shin said during his first meeting with reporters since taking office last month.

"There is a possibility of (North Korea's satellite launch) in around late November. We will continue to monitor the situation," he added.

In response to Pyongyang's efforts to put its first spy satellite into space, Shin vowed to boost the South Korean military's surveillance capability to fend off North Korea's advancing missile and nuclear threat.

He disclosed the South Korean military's plan to launch its first indigenous reconnaissance satellite on Falcon 9, U.S. aerospace company SpaceX's two-stage rocket, from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on Nov. 30, as well as a plan to launch a homegrown solid propellant rocket later this year.

South Korea has condemned Pyongyang's satellite launch as a provocation and violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions banning its use of ballistic missile technology.

ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 3, 2023

3. N. Korea slams U.S. test launch of Minuteman III ICBM

No surprise here.

N. Korea slams U.S. test launch of Minuteman III ICBM | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · November 3, 2023

SEOUL, Nov. 3 (Yonhap) -- North Korea lambasted the United States on Friday for its recent test of a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) as it vowed to respond to "reckless" provocations with "prompt, overwhelming and decisive counteraction."

The U.S. test-launched an unarmed ICBM at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, with a defense delegation led by Deputy Minister for Defense Policy Heo Tae-keun in attendance. It marked the first such observation by a South Korean delegation in seven years since 2016.

The U.S. later safely terminated the Minuteman III over the Pacific Ocean on Nov. 1, due to an anomaly during a test launch.

"The DPRK will as ever continue its military action to bolster up the deterrence and ensure the strategic security in the Korean peninsula and the region," a military commentator said in the English-language article carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), using the country's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Claiming that the "nuclear threat" by Washington is nearing a "new red line," the commentator said bolstering Pyongyang's "self-defensive nuclear armed forces" is an exercise of its self-defense rights to protect its security.

The KCNA article also warned against using nuclear arms against such threats.

"The DPRK's military counteraction stand to respond to the nukes in kind is immutable, irrespective of whether the U.S. targets the DPRK with strategic nuclear weapons or deploys tactical nukes," it said.

The North has been seeking to bolster its nuclear arsenal. In September, the recalcitrant regime amended its constitution to enshrine a nuclear force-building policy, a year after it enacted a new nuclear law authorizing the preemptive use of nuclear arms, calling its status as a nuclear state "irreversible."

Deputy Minister for Defense Policy Heo Tae-keun (L) and Vipin Narang, U.S. principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for space policy, observe the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile test at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, in this photo provided by the defense ministry on Nov. 1, 2023. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · November 3, 2023

4. Press Statement of Spokesman of Korean Jurists Committee (north Korea on Hamas and Gaza)

This is another example of a nation state supporting Hamas (of course it serves heKim family regime's purpose and interest to be able to discredit the US and its allies)

Press Statement of Spokesman of Korean Jurists Committee

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1698993094-981792029/press-statement-of-spokesman-of-korean-jurists-committee/?mc_cid=e24b38b0e5&mc_eid=611fc17960

Date: 03/11/2023 | Source: KCNA.kp (En) | Read original version at source

Pyongyang, November 3 (KCNA) -- The number of innocent civilian casualties is increasing as Israel has recently escalated its reckless military attack on the Gaza Strip gradually.

According to data available since the outbreak of the Middle East incident on Oct. 7, more than 8 000 Palestinians, including 3 000-odd children and 2 000-odd women, were killed and over 20 000 wounded in the Gaza Strip due to indiscriminate air raids and shelling by Israel. And the damage is expected to be further expanded in the future due to the humanitarian crisis.

Nevertheless, the U.S. is getting frantic with military support to Israel, far from making efforts to settle the situation, while continuing to connive at and foster Israel's killing of civilians.

After the outbreak of the incident, the U.S. has zealously instigated the attack on the Gaza Strip while increasing the degree of military support to Israel by dispatching two aircraft carrier strike groups, an amphibious assaulting ship, fighters and many other war hardware to the region, deploying missile defense and interception systems such as THAAD and Patriot and proposing to the Congress an omnibus aid plan including a $14.3 billion support to Israel, a spokesman of the Korean Jurists Committee said in a press statement issued on Friday, and went on:

This shows that although the U.S. is talking about the prevention of escalation of the situation, its real intention is to zealously patronize and back Israel's reckless military attack on the Gaza Strip.

The U.S. exercised veto at a meeting of the UN Security Council on the Middle East crisis on Oct. 18, talking about Israel's "right to self-defense" and also foiled the adoption of a resolution at a UNSC meeting on Oct. 26, calling for a "temporary truce", not an "immediate ceasefire". The fact goes to clearly prove that it has no interest in the protection of civilians in the Gaza Strip.

In particular, the U.S. has insisted that Israel is not to blame for the death of more than 500 civilians due to the attack on a Palestinian hospital, shamelessly claiming that the number of civilian deaths announced by the Palestinian health authorities cannot be confirmed directly on the spot and, accordingly, cannot be recognized. This fully reveals the U.S. cruelty and barbarity.

The U.S. loudly clamored about "humanitarian disaster", calling for the "protection of civilians" in Ukraine. But it is conniving at and encouraging Israel's hideous killings of civilians while keeping mum about this. This is the height of double standards.

Through large-scale protest demonstrations and rallies in different parts of the world, the international community is now strongly urging Israel, which does not hesitate to commit massacres of civilians, and the U.S., which is zealously patronizing, conniving and fostering them, to immediately stop the human slaughter.

A resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire for humanitarian purposes was adopted at the Oct. 27 special emergency meeting of the UN General Assembly with the approval of 120 countries. And a statement of the Middle East countries on putting an end to the war crimes of Israel against mankind and on making an immediate truce for the protection of civilians was made public on Oct. 28. They are an eruption of strong protest and anger of the international community.

The U.S. one-sided policy and reckless military support policy on Israel are hideous war crimes that cause the massacre of innocent Arabians. It is none other than the U.S. which should be brought to the International Criminal Court and ousted from the UN Human Rights Council.

To put an end to the double standards of the U.S. engrossed in high-handed and arbitrary practices in different parts of the world is a prerequisite for establishing a fair and just international order. -0-

www.kcna.kp (Juche112.11.3.)

5. North Korean defectors take on China over forced returns of fellow escapees

Note the distinguished looking gentleman in the photo. That is my friend and colleague Kenji Sawai from the Global Peace Foundation. He is taking me to New York to attend my first ever protest at the PRC Mission to the UN on Monday along with activists such as Dr. Suzanne Scholte and Thae Yong Ho and others. Afterward we will be giving a lecture at Columbia University on human rights upfront, information, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.

North Korean defectors take on China over forced returns of fellow escapees

Those returned to North Korea face prospect of life-long imprisonment, torture and even execution, activists say

By

Nicola Smith,

 ASIA CORRESPONDENT

2 November 2023 • 4:58pm

The defectors heading to New York hope to urge UN human rights officials to name and shame China for refusing to allow North Koreans safe transit CREDIT: Ahn Young-joon/AP

A group of North Korean defectors will head from Seoul to New York next week to appeal to the United Nations to stop China from repatriating hundreds of fellow escapees back to their authoritarian homeland.

Last month, human rights groups reported Beijing had forcibly returned about 600 escapees to the North, while Seoul’s unification ministry also confirmed that a “large number” of North Korean citizens had been repatriated after the dictatorship loosened its Covid-19 restrictions.

There are now fears that hundreds more could be deported back to North Korea in the months ahead, after research from activists and the UN’s envoy on human rights, Elizabeth Salmon, indicated there were some 2,000 defectors languishing in Chinese detention centres.

“The repatriated refugees are treated as criminals or traitors by the North Korean authorities,” said Thae Yong-ho, one of North Korea’s highest-level defectors, during a press conference in Seoul.

“Their punishment may include imprisonment without legal process, enforced disappearance, lifelong detention in prison camps and even execution.”

The campaign to stop further repatriations had been born out of the belief that “silent and quiet diplomacy with the Chinese government on this issue could not resolve this humanitarian catastrophe,” added Mr Thae, who now sits in South Korea’s National Assembly.

Thae Yong-Ho is renowned as one of North Korea’s highest-level defector Credit: Kim In-chul/Yonhap

British parliamentarians from the All-Party Parliamentary Group on North Korea are among those calling for the international community to pressure China to grant escapees safe passage to asylum in the South.

The defectors heading to New York hope to urge UN human rights officials to name and shame China for refusing to allow North Koreans safe transit or to adhere to the agency’s 1951 Refugee Convention, which outlines the rights of refugees and international obligations to protect them.

At the heart of the Convention is non-refoulement, which asserts that a refugee should not be returned to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom.

Among those travelling next week is Byeongrim Lee, whose 17-year-old son was caught in Kunming, southern China, while he was trying to join her in Seoul.

Her son had simply wanted to “live in a better world” where he could enjoy electricity and three meals a day, she said during Thursday’s press conference.

“He is not a criminal, but he is treated as a criminal and he was deported to a prison camp in North Korea. At the moment, his family does not know where he is or if he is alive or dead,” she said.

“Imagining my son under corporal punishment and starvation it feels like I have thousands of rocks in my heart. I hope that such things would never happen again to North Korean refugees,” said Ms Lee.

“I really hope I can say for one last time to my son in person that I love him and to hug him before I die.”

For decades, North Koreans fleeing extreme poverty, starvation and political oppression have attempted to transit China en route to Southeast Asia and sanctuary in South Korea.

Before the pandemic, more than 1,000 were welcomed every year in Seoul, but during Covid-19 border closures and lockdowns, the journey became all but impossible. Since 2020, just 458 North Koreans have made it to the South.

Crackdowns by the Chinese authorities, aided by sophisticated surveillance technology, has also made such journeys increasingly perilous, forcing many defectors to rely on unscrupulous and abusive traffickers.

The terrible dangers they face if caught have been well-documented by rights groups like the Database Centre for North Korean Human Rights (NKDB).

The Seoul-based NKDB has recorded 8,125 cases of forced repatriation of North Koreans and 32,198 cases of human rights violations inflicted on them.

Myeonghui Ji, a defector who now lives in Seoul, said she had been so badly tortured during an interrogation in 2016 that she still suffered mental and physical pain. “I want the international community to know the brutality that I faced,” she said.

Yeonghak Heo, a father of two who will also travel to New York next week, said his wife had been forcibly returned to North Korea by China in 2020. “She was innocent and had never broken any laws,” he said. “It was only natural that she wanted to join her two daughters.”

The Chinese government routinely labels fleeing North Koreans as “illegal economic migrants”.

“Their punishment may include imprisonment without legal process, enforced disappearance, lifelong detention in prison camps and even execution” Credit: Ahn Young-joon/AP

In a statement to the Telegraph in September, the Chinese embassy in London said: “The Chinese government attaches great importance to and protects the legitimate rights and interests of foreign citizens in China in accordance with the law.”

It added that it “always properly handles the illegal entry of the DPRK citizens in accordance with domestic and international laws and on humanitarian grounds,” referring to North Korea’s official name – Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

A growing number of British parliamentarians are joining those who are speaking out.

In October, the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on North Korea strongly urged the Chinese authorities to immediately cease the longstanding practice of forcible repatriation.

One person who knows firsthand the terror of being sent back to such a cruel regime is Timothy Cho, one of the few North Koreans to escape twice.

He now lives in Manchester, works for the APPG and also acts as a spokesperson for the Christian charity Open Doors, advocating for North Korean human rights.

“I have personally experienced repatriation once, and I am familiar with the process of imprisonment, torture, and punishment that follows … Even if we can rescue just one person through these diplomatic efforts in collaboration with the South Korean government, it would be a significant achievement,” he wrote to MPs.

Mr Cho escaped from North Korea in his teens, and was brutally interrogated after being forced back. After a second escape, where he was again arrested in China, he thought he would be executed in North Korea but was granted deportation to the Philippines after missionaries advocated for his safe release.

“I was so lucky. If I had been returned to North Korea again, I would not be alive today. That’s a fate I want to spare my brothers and sisters, currently in prison in China,” he said.

Protect yourself and your family by learning more about Global Health Security

The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith,

6. South Korea to launch 1st spy satellite Nov. 30

A race to space. South Korea is winning by a long way.

South Korea to launch 1st spy satellite Nov. 30

The Korea Times · November 3, 2023

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik speaks during a meeting at the National Assembly in Seoul, Wednesday. Shin said on Friday that South Korea's military will launch its first domestically-built reconnaissance satellite on Nov. 30. Newsis

Defense chief says Pyongyang could also launch satellite this month with Russian aid

By Jung Min-ho

South Korea’s military will launch its first domestically-built reconnaissance satellite on Nov. 30 as part of a project to place five such satellites into space by the end of 2025.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said the satellite carried by a Falcon 9 rocket of SpaceX, a U.S. spacecraft maker, will be launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

“Military satellites are the core of the three-axis defense system … They will strengthen that system by improving the capabilities to monitor and track North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats in advance,” a military official said.

“Nothing is 100 percent certain, but we think the probability of success is high.”

To bolster reconnaissance capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign intelligence sources, South Korea’s military earmarked 1.2 trillion won ($910 million) for the “425 project,” under which four synthetic aperture radar satellites and one featuring an electro-optical infrared telescope will be launched into low Earth orbit.

State agencies and private companies, including the Korea Aerospace Research Institute, the Agency for Defense Development and Hanwha Systems, have participated in the project in cooperation with scientists overseas.

Once those satellites go into operation, they are expected to significantly improve the three-axis deterrence system, which heavily relies on the detection capabilities. It consists of three steps: a Kill Chain to preemptively strike the source of an attack, shooting down North Korean missiles in-flight (KAMD) and employing the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) campaign to eliminate the North's command-and-control.

The revelation comes at a time when North Korea is preparing to launch its own spy satellite after two botched attempts to do so this year.

Asked about the timing, Shin said North Korea is unlikely to launch it in the next two weeks, saying it may be possible at the end of this month.

He also said North Korea is probably receiving support from Russia’s military and scientists, adding that possibility may have been the reason why the regime did not try for a third launch before the end of October ― a timeline it set up after its launch failure in August.

“North Korea could have tried again on its own … but the launch may have been delayed as Russia provided specific technical guidance (for the satellite). We believe the latter scenario is more likely,” he said.

A reconnaissance satellite is among the high-tech weapons North Korean leader Kim Jong-un vowed to develop, along with a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile and a nuclear-powered submarine.

The Korea Times · November 3, 2023

7. US Army takes responsibility for stray bullet that struck moving SUV in South Korea

​A lesson from the tragedy of Highway 56. Although this seems like a minor incident to some, we must take responsibility. Failure to do so will create anti- American sentiment.

However, this may be a result of encroachment on US training areas.  

US Army takes responsibility for stray bullet that struck moving SUV in South Korea

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi and Yoo Kyong Chang · November 3, 2023

An SUV parks near the Rodriguez Live Fire Complex in Pocheon city with a sign that says "vehicle damaged by the bullet," Oct. 26, 2023. (Pocheon City Council)

SEOUL, South Korea — The command responsible for U.S. ground operations in South Korea has taken responsibility for a stray bullet that struck a moving car last week, according to Pocheon city officials.

Eighth Army, headquartered at Camp Humphreys south of the capital, “sincerely [feels] responsible for this accident,” Lt. Gen. Willard Burleson said during a meeting with Pocheon officials Wednesday, according to a news release from the city the next day.

Burleson said the command plans to “permanently close” the firing lane where the accident occurred and relocate training to a safer area, according to the release.

The Oct. 24 incident occurred less than a mile from the 3,390-acre Rodriguez Live Fire Complex, where U.S. and South Korean troops train 16 miles from the Demilitarized Zone.

The windshield of an SUV driven by a South Korean man was struck at 6:30 a.m. by a 5.56 mm bullet, according to Pocheon police. The driver was not injured.

The incident is still under investigation; however, a preliminary analysis “identified an issue with one of the firing lanes,” Eighth Army public affairs director Lt. Col. Juan Martinez wrote in a statement emailed Friday.

“We are deeply committed to conducting safe training at all U.S. Army facilities in [South Korea] and to continue combined, tough and realistic training,” the statement said. “Eighth Army’s investigation will determine if additional changes to techniques, policies, or procedures are required in the future.”

The leader of a community group called the Youngpyeong Firing Range Tas Force, Kang, Tae-il, said the group asked Eighth Army for a detailed report on how the accident occurred, as well as “measures to prevent the recurrence of such accidents.”

“We think the fact that the U.S. military side admitted their fault and made an official apology to us right away after the accident is a positive change,” Kang said during the meeting, according to the release.

Pocheon Mayor Baek Young-hyeon said the city’s citizens “have been enduring pain for more than 70 years” due to accidental discharges and noise pollution coming from the range, the release said.

Errant rounds fired by the U.S. military have triggered past apologies.

During a Dec. 14, 2017, town hall meeting, then-Eighth Army commander Lt. Gen. Thomas Vandal apologized to Pocheon residents for three range-safety incidents that year, including a .50-caliber round that hit a local’s home the previous month.

Two years prior to that incident, an anti-tank missile fired by U.S. Marines landed in an abandoned building roughly 650 feet from the range. An investigation found that a faulty guide wire left the missile unable to communicate with the fire control system.

David Choi

David Choi

David Choi is based in South Korea and reports on the U.S. military and foreign policy. He served in the U.S. Army and California Army National Guard. He graduated from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Yoo Kyong Chang

Yoo Kyong Chang

Yoo Kyong Chang is a reporter/translator covering the U.S. military from Camp Humphreys, South Korea. She graduated from Korea University and also studied at the University of Akron in Ohio.

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi and Yoo Kyong Chang · November 3, 2023

8. Exclusive: South Korea lining up banks to help finance $22 billion arms sale to Poland

South Korea: A full service arms supplier.

Exclusive: South Korea lining up banks to help finance $22 billion arms sale to Poland

Reuters · by Cynthia Kim

SEOUL, Nov 3 (Reuters) - After hitting statutory limits on import-export lending, South Korea is gathering local banks to help Poland buy $22 billion worth of weapons in Seoul's largest arms sale, five people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

"Five local banks are reviewing a syndicated loan as a support measure" to help Poland finance its purchase of South Korean rocket artillery systems and fighter jets, a South Korean government official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing planning.

Two officials from a Korean defence company confirmed the syndicated loan plan. Two officials at South Korean banks said there would be loans, but did not specify the type.

It is the first indication that Seoul is working to remove Poland's financing hurdles to enable the two countries to strike South Korea's biggest-ever weapons arms deal, estimated at around 30 trillion won ($22.72 billion).

The discussions are a follow-up to the comprehensive arms agreement between the two nations signed last year, under which South Korean companies including Hyundai Rotem Co. and Hanwha Aerospace Co. will supply tanks, howitzers and fighter jets.

That deal was worth $13.7 billion, South Korea's largest to date.

Spokespersons at both Hyundai Rotem and Hanwha Aerospace declined to comment for this story.

The South Korean government didn't immediately provide a comment when asked for one.

The South Korean government official did not elaborate on the size of the potential syndicated loan. Such a loan is provided by a group of lenders to a single borrower, often to finance large deals.

The defence company official said that if the syndicated loan for the next proposed sale wasn't enough, "there could be other financing measures on the way".

South Korea's defence exports totalled about $17 billion in 2022, according to its defence ministry, up from $7.25 billion a year before, as the war in Ukraine opened a door for Seoul's weapons exports.

The 2022 arms deal with Poland established Seoul as a major player in global weapons exports, largely dominated by the U.S. and Russia.

Seoul is also seeking deeper security ties in Europe, an ambition with ideal timing for Poland, which borders Ukraine, as it ramps up arms imports amid tensions with Russia.

($1 = 1,320.4500 won)

Reporting by Cynthia Kim, Seunggyu Lim; Additional reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Josh Smith and Gerry Doyle

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Acquire Licensing Rights, opens new tab

Reuters · by Cynthia Kim

9. N Korea issues nuclear threat over US-S Korea space alliance

It may seem counterintuitive, but north Korea welcomes such tests (whether successful or not) because the Propaganda and Agitation Department can use them to hype the external threat that is necessary to justify the suffering and sacrifice of the Korean people in order to protect Kim Jong Un. So yes, in a way our tests and other military actions can actually contribute to regime survival.

N Korea issues nuclear threat over US-S Korea space alliance

The warning comes after an unsuccessful US Air Force missile test.

By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA

2023.11.02

Seoul, S. Korea

rfa.org

North Korea issued a renewed threat to use nuclear weapons against the United States, calling the security collaboration between Washington and Seoul the actions of “war maniacs.”

“The spectrum of the U.S. nuclear threat, whether it be strategic or tactical, would not alter the response of our military: We will respond nukes with nukes,” the country’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Friday.

“The military forces of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea stand ready to execute the constitutional mandate to safeguard national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the rights and interests of the people,” KCNA added, using North Korea’s formal name. “In the face of any perceived military provocations, the DPRK’s stance is clear: to deliver an immediate, resounding, and decisive counteraction to the actions of those war maniacs.”

The report came as the U.S. Air Force conducted a test launch of the Minuteman III Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California on Tuesday. The test, however, did not go as planned – the missile was deliberately destroyed mid-flight following the detection of an anomaly.

The launch was attended by a South Korean delegation, including Heo Tae-keun, the chief of defense policy at the South’s Ministry of National Defense. It was the first time in seven years that South Korean officials were present at a U.S. ICBM test, signaling a deepening of security ties between the two countries.

The enhanced cooperation has recently extended into the space domain, underscoring the expanding scope of the alliance. U.S. President Joe Biden and former South Korean President Moon Jae-in entered into in May 2021, ending bilateral missile guidelines that had long restricted Seoul’s development of missiles to under the range of 800 kilometers (500 miles). The South’s current President Yoon Suk Yeol is aiming to further boost space tech cooperation with the U.S.

South Korea has established itself as a global frontrunner in various tech domains, yet its space exploration endeavors have not kept pace with those of its neighbors, including China and Japan. Meanwhile, North Korea has conducted ICBM launches that could be considered as surpassing South Korea’s current advancements in space launch capability.

North Korea Friday checked the potential tech cooperation among the allies, labeling it a “hostile threat” to its sovereignty and security.

“The United States, through its recent intercontinental ballistic missile test launch, which notably involved the presence of its puppet military thugs, for the first time in seven years under the banner of extended deterrence strategy, has sent a clear message regarding the intended targets of its nuclear arsenal,” KCNA said.

“We are committed to persisting in our military efforts to fortify deterrence measures and bolster strategic security throughout the Korean Peninsula and the surrounding region,” it added.

Meanwhile, North Korea is solidifying its ties with Russia, and is likely to have received help in obtaining “satellite” launch technology from Moscow

“There is an indication that technical expertise has been sought from Russia, a factor that may enhance the likelihood of a successful launch [of North Korea’s satellite],” South Korean lawmaker Yoo Sang-beom told reporters Wednesday, after being briefed by the country’s spy agency in parliament.

North Korea is set to launch its “satellite,” in near future, according to Yoo, after it failed to launch satellites into space in May and August – a very public embarrassment to its leader Kim Jong Un.

Edited by Mike Firn and Elaine Chan.

rfa.org

10. [INTERVIEW] Ruling party's reform czar calls for flexible immigration policy

[INTERVIEW] Ruling party's reform czar calls for flexible immigration policy

The Korea Times · November 3, 2023

Ihn Yo-han, chairman of the innovation committee of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), speaks during an interview with The Hankook Ilbo, a sister paper of The Korea Times, at the party's headquarters in Seoul's Yeouido, Wednesday. Korea Times photo by Choi Joo-yeon

Ihn Yo-han says he's ready to take more criticism in revamping party

By Lee Hyo-jin, Lee Hae-rin

Flexible and transparent immigration policies are keys to the successful integration of migrants, according to Ihn Yo-han, chairman of the innovation committee of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), as Korea seeks to become more open to immigrants amid a labor shortage and low growth.

Korea is actively inviting foreign nationals – mostly from Southeast Asian countries – to fill its manpower void mainly in the agriculture, fishing and construction sectors. But at the same time, the nation is struggling to address an increasing number of foreign laborers who seek to change their workplaces or overstay their visas.

"We need flexibility in immigration policies. And regarding the issue of whom to accept or not accept, the process should be transparent," Ihn said during an interview with The Korea Times, Thursday.

He cited the current Employment Permit System, under which foreign workers cannot change their workplaces or job sectors freely.

"For instance, in the case of foreign fishermen, they may run away (because of hard work) and become undocumented. Instead we should tell them that if you work on the boat for a year or two, you can change your work permit (to another category)."

The 64-year-old doctor, who comes from an American family with a long history of contributions to Korea, became the first special naturalized Korean in 2012. He is the great-grandson of American Southern Presbyterian missionary Eugene Bell, who was dispatched to Korea in 1895.

Ihn said he is an expert on immigration policies, given his background.

He also said the government should do more to support children of migrants to assist their full integration into Korean society. As important as it is to make sure they learn Korean language and culture, the government should consider introducing affirmative action policies to open more opportunities for them, he said.

Ihn was appointed as the conservative party's innovation committee chairman in October and is tasked with overhauling the party as it gears up for the upcoming general elections slated for April next year.

He will lead the committee until Dec. 24, during which time it will offer various proposals that will lay the groundwork for the party's nomination rules for the elections.

When asked about his thoughts regarding the rules on choosing the party's candidates, Ihn called for the increased participation of women, saying that they are still poorly represented in Korea’s labor force, business world and political realm.

“I personally think that women should be more involved. Korea has the poorest score among the OECD countries when it comes to gender equality issues. Women CEOs are paid less (than men). It’s all nonsense,” he said.

Such a view is reflected in Ihn’s pick of his committee members. The 13-member innovation committee, launched on Oct. 26, consists of seven women and six men, including Ihn.

Ihn Yo-han, chairman of the innovation committee of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), attends a meeting at the party's headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul, Friday. Yonhap

Bumpy road ahead

Upon being appointed as the committee chairman, Ihn said the PPP should “change everything except their wives and children,” citing a famous remark by late Samsung Group Chairman Lee Kun-hee.

But reforming the conservative party has turned out to be a daunting task so far.

The first proposal by the committee made last week to offer “grand amnesty” to disgraced PPP members – the party’s former Chairman Lee Jun-seok and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo – stirred controversy both inside and outside the party.

Both rejected the proposal, with Hong saying that he has already parted ways with the PPP leadership.

The party leadership sided with Ihn. It approved the committee's proposal on Thursday, lifting the membership suspension imposed on Lee and Hong.

Ihn said the reactions from Lee and Hong were not surprising.

"Of course, there can be backlash. It's understable. But we should continue to try to make things nice with them. Our top priority is unity and prosperity, which cannot be achieved overnight. There's a long way to go," he said.

Ihn has also faced backlash from some PPP lawmakers after he called for party heavyweights to leave the the traditional stronghold, or the Gyeongsang provinces, and run in opposition-dominated areas in Seoul and the surrounding Gyeonggi Province.

"It is time for politicians to make a sacrifice for the nation, but they don't seem to be willing to give up vested interests," he said. "But as I've said earlier, everything should change. And I hope my party will lead that change."

Ihn said he is ready to face more criticism if that's what it takes for a successful reform of the party, saying that the next two months will be the most important period in his life.

A day after the interview, the innovation committee strongly urged the party's leadership and PPP lawmakers who are known to be close confidants of President Yoon Suk Yeol to run in Seoul and its surrounding areas in the upcoming general elections, or give up their reelection bids.

But the committee did not announce the request in the form of an official proposal, saying that the issue is still under internal discussion. The committee introduced a set of new proposals, such as reducing the number of Assembly members by 10 percent and renouncing parliamentary immunity from arrest.

The Korea Times · November 3, 2023

11. New deputy chief of Korea-U.S. combined command calls for strong resolve to deter war

Could he be prepared to become the first Korean commander of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command or has the ROK administration completely tabled OPCON transition?

Perhaps we should consider a rotation of commanders with a Korean deputy fleeting up to the Commander after serving as the deputy. He or she would be followed by a US commander and a new Korean deputy would then again fleet up to the commander and the rotation process would continue. (this is not a new idea).

New deputy chief of Korea-U.S. combined command calls for strong resolve to deter war

The Korea Times · November 2, 2023

Gen. Kang Shin-chul, the newly appointed deputy commander of the Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, speaks during a speech in his inauguration ceremony at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Thursday. Courtesy of Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command

The new deputy chief of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) called on troops Thursday for a strong resolve to deter war in his inauguration ceremony at a key U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) military base.

Gen. Kang Shin-chul, the newly appointed deputy commander of the CFC, made the remark during the ceremony at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, 60 kilometers south of Seoul, according to the command.

"The Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command ... must not hesitate in the face of danger of war," he was quoted as saying. "Only then, will we be able to deter war and win."

During the ceremony, Gen. Paul LaCamera, commander of the CFC and the USFK, also called for continued efforts to establish a strengthened combined defense posture, the command said.

Kang was appointed to his new post Sunday as part of a major reshuffle of top military brass. He last served as the head of the Chief Directorate of Operations at the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Launched in 1978, the CFC has been the allies' core war fighting headquarters tasked with countering potential North Korean provocations and aggression. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · November 2, 2023

12. Japan returns favor again by flying 15 Korean nationals out of Israel

Japan returns favor again by flying 15 Korean nationals out of Israel

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · November 3, 2023

By Choi Si-young

Published : Nov. 3, 2023 - 15:44

A South Korean military transport plane carrying mainly South Koreans and some foreigners including Japanese lands at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam on Oct. 15. (Joint Press Corps).

Japan is bringing back 15 South Korean nationals and one foreign national family member from Israel to Tokyo on a Japanese military plane, reciprocating for the second time Korea’s rescue flight last month that included Japanese nationals.

According to the Foreign Ministry in Seoul, the plane is set to land at Haneda International Airport on Friday evening. Aboard the aircraft are 20 Japanese nationals, four Taiwanese citizens, one Vietnamese national and their five foreign national family members.

This latest gesture of goodwill follows an initial Japanese rescue flight on Oct. 21, when Tokyo flied out 18 Korean nationals and one foreign national family member to thank Korea for the same humanitarian outreach the previous week.

Ties dramatically improved in May when the governments of the two Asian countries decided to put behind historical disputes and officially resume shuttle diplomacy, or leader-level visits to each other’s countries, after a 12-year hiatus.

Last month, First Vice Foreign Minister Chang Ho-jin and his Japanese counterpart met in Seoul to discuss policy on a range of global issues including North Korea and China. Restarting a trilateral summit of Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing was one of priorities.

The foreign ministers from the three nations will meet later this month potentially in Busan to finalize the agenda for the trilateral summit, which last took place in 2019 and has been suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic and political tensions.

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · November 3, 2023

13. China supported sanctions on North Korea's nuclear program. It's also behind their failure

​I believe China may have supported sanctions in 2017 because it really feared the US might take military action and it assessed that by supporting sanctions it would check the US military plans.

China supported sanctions on North Korea's nuclear program. It's also behind their failure

BY ALAN SUDERMAN

Updated 8:13 AM EDT, November 3, 2023

AP · November 3, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — Chinese middlemen launder the proceeds of North Korean hackers’ cyber heists while Chinese ships deliver sanctioned North Korean goods to Chinese ports.

Chinese companies help North Koreans workers — from cheap laborers to well-paid IT specialists — find work abroad. A Beijing art gallery even boasts of North Korean artists working 12-hour days in its heavily surveilled compound, churning out paintings of idyllic visions of life under communism that each sell for thousands of dollars.

That’s all part of what international authorities say is a growing mountain of evidence that shows Beijing is helping cash-strapped North Korea evade a broad range of international sanctions designed to hamper Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program, according to an Associated Press review of United Nations reports, court records and interviews with experts.

“It’s overwhelming,” Aaron Arnold, a former member of a U.N. panel on North Korea and a sanctions expert at the Royal United Services Institute, said of the links between China and sanctions evasion. “At this point, it’s very hard to say it’s not intentional.”

China has had a complicated relationship with Pyongyang since the 1950-53 Korean War. Though uneasy with a nuclear menace at its doorstep, China doesn’t want its neighbor’s government to collapse, experts say. China views North Korea as a buffer against the U.S., which maintains a significant troop presence in South Korea.

Beijing has long maintained it enforces the sanctions it has supported since North Korea started testing nuclear weapons and forcefully pushed back on any suggestions to the contrary. “China has been fully and strictly implementing the (U.N. Security Council) resolutions,” a Chinese ambassador said in a recent letter to the U.N, adding that his country had “sustained great losses” in doing so.

But in recent years, Beijing has sought to weaken those very sanctions and last year vetoed new restrictions on Pyongyang after it conducted a nuclear test.

This summer a top ruling Chinese party official provided a vivid example of China’s ambiguity on sanctions as he stood clapping next to North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un during a Pyongyang military parade. Rolling past the two men were trucks carrying nuclear-capable missiles and other weapons the regime isn’t supposed to have.

They were joined by Russia’s defense minister, apparently part of a new effort by the Kremlin, struggling in its invasion of Ukraine, to strength ties with North Korea. The U.S. has accused North Korea of supplying artillery shells and rockets to Russia, while new evidence shows Hamas fighters likely fired North Korean weapons during their Oct. 7 assault on Israel.

But while Russia and a handful of other countries have been accused of helping North Korea evade sanctions, none has been as prolific as China, according to court records and international reports.

“China violates North Korea sanctions it voted for and says won’t work because it’s afraid they’ll work. And, also, says it isn’t violating them” said Joshua Stanton, a human rights advocate and attorney who has helped write U.S. sanction laws against North Korea.

A review by the AP found a majority of the people placed on the U.S. government’s sanctions list related to North Korea in recent years have ties to China. Many are North Koreans working for alleged Chinese front companies while others are Chinese citizens who U.S. authorities say launder money or procure weapons material for North Korea.

North Korea has said the U.S.-led sanctions against it are stifling its economy, calling them proof of U.S. hostility against the country.

Besides sanctions, U.S. criminal prosecutions against individuals or entities assisting North Korea’s regime often have links to China.

That’s especially true for cases related to North Korea’s sophisticated hackers, who experts believe have stolen upwards of $3 billion in digital currency in recent years. That windfall has coincided with the speedy growth of the country’s missile and weapons program.

An indictment filed earlier this year alleges that a Chinese middleman helped launder cryptocurrency stolen by the regime’s top hackers into U.S. dollars. And a similar case was filed in 2020 that accused two Chinese brokers of laundering more than $100 million in digital currencies stolen by North Korea.

Such “over-the-counter” brokers allow North Korean hackers to bypass know-your-customer rules governing banks and other financial exchanges.

North Korea depends heavily on China’s financial system and Chinese companies to obtain prohibited technology and goods, as well as to acquire U.S. dollars and gain access to the global financial system, records show.

“The (Chinese) banks are less rigorous because the Chinese government is not pushing them,” said former top U.S. Treasury official Anthony Ruggiero.

North Korea imported more than $250,000 worth of aluminum oxide, which can be used in processing nuclear weapons fuel, from a Chinese company in 2015, according to customs records cited in a think tank report. U.S. prosecutors have alleged the same company accounted for a significant share of overall trade between North Korea and China; its customers included the Chinese government’s Ministry of Commerce, which was bidding on North Korean projects.

Images from North Korean military parades have shown the regime’s nuclear missiles being transported on launchers made with Chinese heavy-duty truck chassis. China told the U.N. panel of experts that North Korea had promised it would use the trucks to move timber.

China regularly ignores reams of satellite photos and vessel tracking data compiled by a U.N. panel of experts showing Chinese-flagged vessels docking with North Korean ships and transferring goods. North Korean ships are banned by U.N. sanctions from participating in ship-to-ship transfers, which are often done to obscure the flow of sanctioned goods like coal exports and oil imports.

The U.S. and other leading democracies sent China a letter this summer saying they were “disappointed” that satellite photos continue to show cargo ships that have allegedly been documented breaking sanctions operating in Chinese ports and territorial waters.

“The international community is closely watching China’s commitment to upholding its UN obligations,” the letter warns.

China dismisses such findings, frequently saying that its own investigations uncovered no evidence of wrongdoing, without providing any alternative information or explanation.

Beijing said last year it couldn’t provide Chinese port of call records for several North Korean ships because the U.N. panel hadn’t provided the ships’ IMO number, a unique identifier painted on large vessels. Those numbers can easily be looked up using a ship’s name.

Eric Penton-Voak, the former coordinator of the U.N. panel of experts, said such excuses were ludicrous in light of China’s vast surveillance powers and showed the ruling communist party’s contempt for enforcing the sanctions it agreed to.

“It’s just grasping at any straw“ to avoid providing an answer, he said.

When the U.N. panel urged Beijing to investigate Chinese garment companies that were likely employing North Korean workers, China said there was nothing it could do because the tip was too vague. The U.N. panel, Beijing said, had only provided the company names in Korean and English. China told the U.N. panel in a letter that its “business registration system uses only the Chinese language.”

___

Associated Press writer Dake Kang in Beijing contributed.

___

The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Contact AP’s global investigative team at Investigative@ap.org

AP · November 3, 2023

14. South Korea increasingly pessimistic as North Korean arsenal expands

Let's not overhype the threat. The nKPA is still not 10 feet tall (still about 4'7"). That said, I still fear the north's miscalculation. And I still think we must be vigilant regarding internal instability which could lead to either war or regime collapse.

South Korea increasingly pessimistic as North Korean arsenal expands

Ukraine, Israel showcase Seoul failure of drone, missile defense

washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon

Russian President Vladimir Putin, second left in front, and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, second right in front, examine a rocket assembly hangar during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky, about 125 miles from … Russian President Vladimir Putin, second left … more >

Premium

By - The Washington Times - Thursday, November 2, 2023

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea is grappling with what many fear is a sharply deteriorating security situation and a diplomatic standstill as the North Korean threat expands inexorably.

Faraway conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have showcased the failures of defense systems against old and new missiles and armed drones, and the prospect of a productive dialogue with Pyongyang shows no signs of progress.

South Korean analysts reckon that the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un possesses some 100 nuclear warheads, with many more in the pipeline.

Mr. Kim “appears to be planning a force of at least 300 to 500 nuclear weapons. … The 300-weapon threshold could almost be reached in 2030,” a joint report by the U.S.-based Rand Corp. research institute and South Korea’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies stated last month.

The report warned: “North Korea has a nuclear weapon force that may already pose an existential threat to [South Korea] and is on the verge of posing a serious threat to the United States.”

As angst rises in Seoul and Washington, options to alter the dynamic on the divided Korean Peninsula are bleak. A deputy defense minister and a former South Korean nuclear arms negotiator acknowledge that defending Seoul from a concentrated North Korean attack is impossible and the prospect of Pyongyang abandoning its nuclear arms is unlikely.

SEE ALSO: North Korea’s Kim delivers ‘one million shells’ to Putin’s troops, Seoul says

Indefensible

An American expatriate businessman was surprised to learn that his new luxury, high-rise apartment in Seoul’s Yongsan district had an air-defense system on the civilian building’s roof.

The air defense mechanism would make him a target, and recent developments suggest such systems offer limited utility as protection against attack.

The Palestinian militant group Hamas — using massed barrages of low-tech rockets based on the World War II-era Soviet Katyusha — overwhelmed Israel’s formerly vaunted Iron Dome low-level air defense system in its terrorist rampage across southern Israel on Oct. 7.

In Ukraine, neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian air defense network has been able to counter missile and drone strikes. Likewise, classic fighting platforms — armored vehicles, surface warships and jet fighter-bombers — have fallen prey to missiles and drones.

Both theaters have highlighted the sophistication and deadliness of current targeting systems and the porousness of defense systems.

Even high-tech Seoul was humiliated in December when its forces were unable to prevent North Korean drones from crossing the Demilitarized Zone and failed to shoot them down when they loitered over civilian airports and the presidential compound.

Analysts note that drones represent a minuscule percentage of the North’s bristling arsenal, which grows by the day.

Pyongyang’s artillery arm includes several hundred ultra-long-range tubes dug into mountain slopes and trained on Seoul, just 30 miles south of the DMZ. The North’s missile forces include long-range multiple-launch rocket systems and cruise and ballistic weapons. That does not take into account Mr. Kim’s nuclear weapons.

Whether argued with conventional or atomic weapons, few war planners could dream of a more target-rich environment than densely populated Greater Seoul, home to 24 million.

In the wake of the Hamas attacks, Sung Il, a deputy minister in the office of resource management for the South Korean Defense Ministry, was blunt when asked about his country’s defensive options.

“There is no such perfect weapon system to defend all attacks from the North. They can fire more than 10,000 rounds an hour,” he told the Defense Dialogue 2023 gathering last month in Seoul.

While South Korea is building a multistage anti-missile umbrella and fields high-tech preemptive and counteroffensive assets to strike firing sites, massive damage would be inevitable.

“There is no such system in the world” that can nullify North Korea’s threat, Mr. Sung said. Although the South could “try to defend key systems and key areas … there would be serious damage on the civilian side.”

Diplomatic delusions

With defenses increasingly at a disadvantage, the prospect of productive diplomacy with the Kim regime seems farther and farther away.

U.S.-backed multilateral talks in the 1990s and 2000s failed to curb the North’s expanding nuclear arsenal, as did direct talks between Mr. Kim and President Trump that produced three face-to-face meetings but no agreements.

North Korea detonated its first device in 2006 and its most recent — with the force of 10 Hiroshima bombs — in 2017. The chances of Pyongyang abandoning these assets are zero, said an expert with direct experience negotiating with the North Koreans.

“I believe that, from the first, denuclearization talks were just an illusion,” Lee Yong-joon, chairman of the Sejong Institute think tank, told reporters. “I believe there will be no further process for denuclearization talks.”

Mr. Lee, a senior member of past South Korean nuclear negotiating teams, said Mr. Kim put his central Yongbyon nuclear complex on the bargaining table in 2019 but now has three and perhaps four secret nuclear enrichment plants to build up his arsenal.

These assets represent a massive investment and constitute the otherwise impoverished regime’s only technological edge over the South.

“Nuclear weapons are critical to the worldview Kim has created for his people to justify his brutal reign and provide a means to achieve his objective of dominating South Korea,” Rand analyst Bruce Bennett wrote on the think tank’s blog. “Eliminate the nuclear weapons, and Kim is little more than a poor leader of a weak state, ripe for overthrow.”

One diplomatic step would be for Seoul and Washington to abandon per se denuclearization demands, recognize the reality of North Korea’s nuclear status and shift to arms control talks. Still, analysts view that as a political non-starter in Washington.

Differences over deterrence

One option for South Korea would be to pursue its own nuclear arsenal, though that could lead to clashes with the U.S. given Washington’s commitment to nuclear nonproliferation and the diplomatic and security fallout from a nuclear South Korea.

“The U.S. is very unlikely to allow South Korea to create an independent armament considering its alliances with other countries,” Mr. Lee said. “If it allows South Korea, it is likely to create a nuclear ‘domino effect.’”

Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Turkey and other nations would likely press to follow suit, he said, and South Korea’s globe-spanning export economy could face punishing sanctions.

Another option is to deploy U.S. nuclear weapons in South Korea. The Asan/Rand report called for modernizing and earmarking for the peninsula some 180 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, with about a dozen based in South Korea.

“That is unlikely to happen,” said Mr. Lee, noting U.S. offshore capabilities. The U.S. Navy “can strike North Korea by submarine from the middle of the ocean, and [tactical nuclear weapons] would also offer North Korea a target to attack within South Korea’s borders.”

Mr. Lee suggested a trilateral Japan-South Korea-U.S. missile defense, a massive increase in Seoul’s conventional forces and an expansion of the “extended deterrence” to the U.S. deployment of strategic bombers and submarines to the South this year.

• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.

Copyright © 2023 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.

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De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com