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PDF | Research | Week of January 15, 2023

Quote of the Week

“Once the Fed pivoted, that really put investors into a positive frame of mind.”

– Tim Murray, capital markets strategist, T. Rowe Price.

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Four for ’24 (Third of a Series)

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2. Winners and Losers: Continued dispersion from multiple dimensions of the market.


The current brew of macro pressures and broader uncertainty have combined to fuel an intriguing effect across multiple dimensions. In 2024, we expect to see continued dispersion across three key market participants: private capital asset managers, private equity firms and portfolio companies. As we navigate slowing economic growth, volatility, and geopolitical shocks, it is even more critical to identify the attributes of winners and losers.


The winners have distinct attributes. Asset managers with scale, diverse investment capabilities, multiple sources of dry powder, and sustainable deal-sourcing advantages, will thrive. These firms will continue to secure the highest quality deal flow, build the most resilient portfolios and attract the broadest capital base, fostering resilience in any market cycle...

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February 6 & 7, 2024

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Chart of the Week

Stairway to Heaven

Investors benefit from – and issuers work through – higher-for-longer rates.

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Source: LSEG LPC

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown/ PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

LPs want more private debt

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That’s the positive conclusion arising from our latest survey of investor attitudes toward the asset class.

Every year, Private Debt Investor conducts its LP Perspectives survey, in which we canvass limited partners around the world for their views on the asset class. What this year’s version tells us is that investors have private debt at the top of their priority lists for 2024...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Daily Analytic: US BSL CLO issuance falls 23% in 2023, MM/PD CLO volume more than doubles

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US CLO issuance declined by 10% in 2023 to US$115.6bn, down from US$128.9bn in 2022. Notably, however, there was a marked difference in the direction of broadly syndicated loan (BSL) CLO activity compared to that of middle market/private debt CLOs...

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Contact: CJ Doherty/ LSEG LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

Global private debt

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Read More & Download  Data & Report

Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Fitch’s U.S. Middle Market Outlook

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The distribution of middle market (MM) issuers’ Outlooks within Fitch’s portfolio stayed relatively flat in 2023 compared with 2022. Approximately 11% of MM issuers have a Negative Outlook or Watch, relatively unchanged from 2022, and a large decline from 30% in 2020. Net upgrades have hovered around zero so far this year...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Average Free-and-Clear as a Multiple of Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA (M&A-Related vs. All Deals)

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Download Data

Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.7% as of 8 January, down from the highest level in last 12 months of 12.1% in May 2023) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.