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September 23, 2022

Floodwaters tore out this stone bridge in Ware, Mass., during the unnamed New England hurricane of 1938, also known as the Long Island Express. Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The long-term climate-changed hurricane forecast for Maine

By Annie Ropeik

Days after Hurricane Fiona slammed into Puerto Rico, many of the 3.2 million Americans who live there remain without power or clean water. The storm is the first to be named in what had so far been an abnormally quiet Atlantic hurricane season that is now heating up rapidly. 

As of Thursday afternoon, Fiona was a Category 4 storm tracking toward Bermuda; after that, it's forecast to swing wide up the East Coast before clobbering Nova Scotia with what's increasingly expected to be unusual force. 

"The upcoming landfall in eastern Nova Scotia on Saturday morning is still expected to be historic," hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy wrote on his blog Thursday. "[T]he storm could break all-time record-low surface pressure values there, and with forecast sustained winds of 90 mph, it will also be one of the most intense storms that area has ever seen." 

Maine should be mostly in the clear, but can expect major swells, dangerous rip currents and strong northwesterly winds that could cause power outages as the storm passes by, pumped up by warmer-than-average sea temperatures. 

We know New England gets its share of hurricanes. Mainers will remember impacts from Sandy, Irene and Bob, or further back, Edna and Carol. Then there was the Long Island Express, or the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. The archival photo above shows flooding in Massachusetts; Maine was spared the worst of that storm, which remains a benchmark for the region.

This is why I was struck by a Tweet I saw after Fiona hit Puerto Rico. Climate scientist Mathew Barlow of the University of Massachusetts-Lowell posted this comparison of rainfall during Fiona and the 1938 storm: 

Credit: National Weather Service data via Dr. Mathew Barlow on Twitter

Twice as much rain fell on Puerto Rico during Fiona as New England saw in the worst of its worst-ever hurricane. It's almost unimaginable.

"I had a couple of things in mind when making the comparison," Barlow told me in a message Thursday. "1. People in the Northeast don't always have a good sense of how much rain we can get from a tropical system. They're not that common but set many of our records. 2. It's kind of hard for us in the Northeast to also wrap our heads around just how much more rain those systems create when they're still in the tropics (twice as much!). And they're much more frequent there."

And yet, as he points out, extreme precipitation is already a hallmark of climate change's impacts in both the tropics and, relatively, New England. 

"Neither region is prepared for the rainfall events that have already occurred, let alone for the increasing totals we're already seeing and will continue to see as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels," Barlow said.

Add that to Fiona's potential to slam the Canadian Maritimes, he said, and this would be the point at which he'd try to offer his students some relief from climate dread with a cat meme.

It can all feel overwhelming, even just in local terms. Data analyzed by the nonprofit Climate Central shows that Maine's rain events are getting more intense, more frequent and more costly, and the state Climate Council's reports show more frequent intense rains too, such as those storms in summer 2021 that washed out carriage roads in Acadia National Park. Parts of Maine are under flood advisories for heavy rain even as I write this. 

The factors that determine the strength of the hurricanes (and nor'easters) we see are also changing. Waters in the Northeast and Gulf of Maine are warming and rising faster than most, adding fuel to storms that pass through. Barlow, on Twitter, pointed to research of his own from 2011 that showed hurricanes as a key factor overall in the rise of extreme precipitation in the Northeast.

It's not the only climate impact we face. Short-term droughts appear to be on the rise at the same time as rain. Our summers are getting longer and hotter. Volatility and extremes are the new normal, here as everywhere — making a new benchmark hurricane for New England surely not a matter of if, but when.

But there is another reason I wanted to highlight that Fiona data this week. Sometimes, the climate story in a place like Maine is about what is not happening here. Fiona, just for this week's example, will not bring Maine a fraction of the damage it's done in Puerto Rico. Here, many of our climate impacts are a slower-moving disaster, less of an immediate existential threat. In fact, Maine could be a potential climate haven for folks migrating from places worse off (more on that in a future newsletter).

So as Puerto Rico struggles to recover from yet another catastrophic storm, I want to hold space for that, and for Maine's role in a global climate system — for our contributions, say, from our disproportionate use of oil heating, to the emissions causing that system to heat up. It shouldn't take a record-breaking hurricane here at home to convince Maine to do its part to help everyone else.

A puffin panorama from Matinicus Rock. The island was hunted down to its last breeding pair of puffins by 1902. Today, there are more than 500 pairs. Credit: Derrick Z. Jackson

Seabirds are on the rise on islands off Maine’s coast

By Derrick Z. Jackson

A year after climate change delivered a devastating 2021, research teams on islands in the Gulf of Maine all but popped champagne over the comeback of seabirds. 

Seal Island’s team wrote, “We are amazed by the resilience of our seabirds, who returned to these shores after a season of starvation in 2021, and have raised gorgeous, sleek chicks in 2022.” 

Research assistants on Matinicus Rock wrote, “The decent productivity of 2022 seems like a miracle in the wake (of 2021).” From Pond Island, the team said the summer “highlighted our terns’ resilience to everything the world can throw at them.”

The buoyant mood similarly permeated August’s end-of-season conference call for the Gulf of Maine Seabird Working Group. The group is a collective, composed primarily of state and federal wildlife biologists, and conservation groups that monitor and protect seabirds on islands stretching from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia. 

On Canadian-managed Machias Seal Island, researchers talked of “a great summer,” with “fat and happy” puffins, terns, razorbills and common murres.

Click to read the rest of this story.

In other Maine news:

CMP:

The fingerprints of climate change are all over Central Maine Power's request for a state approval for a rate hike.

Floating wind: 

The Biden administration has a new goal for the deep-water offshore wind technology that Maine wants to pioneer. 

Onshore wind:

It's been 15 years since the turbines of New England's first commercial wind farm went online on Mars Hill in the County.

Wind jobs:

Northern Maine Community College struggles to attract students to the state's first and only wind power technician training program.

Potatoes:

Maine farmers and researchers want to breed a more climate-hardy version of Aroostook County's mainstay crop.

Fiona:

Maine could see power outages as the hurricane passes by on its way to Canada.

PFAS:

The Guardian writes about contaminated sludge spreading on farmland in states including Maine.

Oceans:

The far North Atlantic is experiencing a record marine heat wave, driven by climate change.

Natural gas:

Summit seeks approval for a rate hike for its troubled Maine gas service. 

Paper:

A major mill in Jay will close and shed jobs after damage in a 2020 explosion.

Whales:

Lobstermen are appealing a judge's ruling that upheld new rules aimed at protecting endangered right whales. 

More whales:

The federal group tasked with protecting the whales from fishing and shipping conflicts met to mull more potential solutions and challenges.

Salmon:

The Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians aims to restore the Meduxnekeag River to make it friendlier to salmon in a changing climate.

Browntail moths:

Remember to watch out for those irritating hairs during leaf-raking season.

Consumer-owned utility:

Backers of a plan to create one in Maine say the Inflation Reduction Act includes a provision that supports their cause as a climate solution.

National Monument:

The Senate is considering a bill from Maine lawmakers that would expand the Katahdin Woods and Waters preserve. 

Floodplains:

Owl's Head officials agreed to pursue legal action against homeowners who may be violating federal floodplain building regulations.

Island Explorer:

L.L. Bean will increase its funding for the Mount Desert Island bus service.

Thanks for reading. See you next week.

Annie Ropeik is a freelance environmental journalist based in Portland. She spent about a decade as an award-winning public radio reporter, including with New Hampshire Public Radio, and later worked for Spectrum News Maine. She is now the assistant director of the Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk. You can reach her at aropeik@gmail.com or @aropeik, or at her website.

Kate Cough will return to Climate Monitor in November.

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