A White-Collar Recession

August 1, 2022

Throughout my career I have looked at a wide spectrum of business and economic news and have always found it fascinating how the same data can be interpreted differently by really smart people. Over the last few months, the news has been filled with stories about inflation, interest rates, employment shortages, persistent supply chain hiccups, and the like. This MarketWatch headline caught my attention and I thought I’d share the story with you:

‘It will be mostly a white-collar recession’: Milken economist William Lee

on how the next economic downturn will be different

His thesis is interesting. While recessions frequently hit low-skill workers the hardest, Lee thinks this will be different. There is such a shortage of employees in manufacturing, warehousing, and services like delivery, that many “lower-skilled workers in jobs that have experienced a labor shortage will likely have an extra layer of protection if the economy slows down.” The building trades and other in-demand jobs might see the number of projects drop, but the backlog of work may be substantial enough that the effects of a slowdown could be a long way off.

Uniquely Delaware

America's Top States for Business in 2022

To rank America’s Top States for Business in 2022, CNBC scored all 50 states on 88 metrics in 10 broad categories of competitiveness. Each category is weighted based on how frequently states use them as a selling point in economic development marketing materials. Under their methodology, states can earn a maximum of 2,500 points. Here's how Delaware compares:

Source: CNBC Top States for Business

News You Can Use

We kick off the week and first day of August with construction spending results from May. On Tuesday, we’ll see June data on job openings and “quits.” June factory orders, Q2 rental vacancy rates, and homeowner vacancy rates are published on Wednesday. Thursday brings us trade deficit numbers from June. We wrap up the week Friday with unemployment figures from July and labor-force participation rates, ages 25-54, from July.

Companies with earnings calls this week include Aflac, Avis Budget Group, CF Industries, Simon Property Group, FMC, Chesapeake Energy Corp., and Bally’s.

Michael J. Quaranta

President

Delaware State Chamber of Commerce

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