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Quotes of the Day:
“Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth and compassion against injustice and lying and greed. It people all over the world would do this, it would change the earth.” - William Faulkner
“You meet saints everywhere. They can be anywhere. They are good people behaving decently in an indecent society.” - Kurt Vonnegut
Fascist and Nazi totalitarianism do not occur because a Hitler or Mussolini decides to seize power. When a nation is psychologically and spiritually empty, totalitarianism comes in to fill the vacuum; and the people sell their freedom as a necessity for getting rid of the anxiety which is too great to bear any longer. ~Rollo May (Book: Man's Search for Himself)
1. North Korea fires ballistic missile into waters off east coast of Korean peninsula
2. North Korea's Missile Tests Are Part of a Political Warfare and Blackmail Strategy
3. S. Korea's NSC condemns N. Korea's missile launch 'provocation'
4. N. Korea fires one short-range ballistic missile into East Sea: S. Korean military
5. Japan ambassador voices positive view of Yoon-Kishida meeting in New York
6. Yoon faces mounting calls to replace national security team
7. North's Sunday morning missile comes before joint South-U.S. naval exercises
8. Seoul counters reports that Korean president's foul language was directed at U.S. Congress
9. Korea - good and bad news
10. Outdoor mask mandate fully lifted, other COVID-19 rules in review
11. [Editorial] Foul language
12. S. Korea's new COVID-19 cases under 30,000 for 3rd straight day
13. Meet the nuclear weapons scientist trying to cut the world's stockpiles
14. North Korea inspects air-raid shelters as tensions rise with US
1. North Korea fires ballistic missile into waters off east coast of Korean peninsula
North Korea fires ballistic missile into waters off east coast of Korean peninsula | CNN
CNN · by Yoonjung Seo,Junko Ogura,Larry Register · September 25, 2022
Seoul CNN —
North Korea has fired a ballistic missile into the waters off the east coast of the Korean peninsula, according to officials in both South Korea and Japan.
The short range missile was fired early Sunday morning local time from the Taechon area of North Pyongan Province, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).
It said the South Korean and US militaries are maintaining “full readiness posture” and closely cooperating following the launch, which it described as a “significant provocative action that harms peace and safety of the Korean Peninsula as well as the international community.”
The JCS said the launch was a “clear violation” of the UN Security Council’s resolution and called on North Korea to “immediately stop.”
This is the 19th missile launch this year, according to CNN’s count. The last was on August 17.
The missile had a flight distance of about 600 kilometers (370 miles), altitude of 60 kilometers (37 miles) and speed of about Mach 5, according to the JCS. The intelligence agencies of South Korea and the US are analyzing further details.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol attends the Global Fund's Seventh Replenishment Conference in New York City on September 21, 2022.
Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images
Hot mic catches South Korean leader Yoon Suk Yeol swearing about US lawmakers
Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said the ballistic missile may have possibly flown on an irregular trajectory.
“North Korea is believed to have launched at least one missile,” at around 6:52am local time in Japan or 5:52pm eastern time Saturday, Hamada said.
He added it fell “near the eastern coast of North Korea”, outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
“North Korea has launched missiles 19 times this year, an unprecedentedly high frequency, including the announcement of the launch of a cruise missiles, and has also launched missiles in new responses,” the Japanese defense minister said.
He added North Korea’s “recent remarkable development of nuclear missile-related technologies cannot be overlooked for the security of our country and the region.”
The defense minister added, “we have protested to North Korea through the embassy route in Beijing.”
The US Indo-Pacific Command said there was “no immediate threat to US territory or military personnel following the launch of a short range ballistic missile in North Korea.”
Japan’s Coast Guard sent an alert out to vessels at 6:56 a.m. local time Sunday warning them of the missile.
“Vessels are advised to pay attention to further information and if they see any falling objects, please do not approach them and report relevant information to the Japan Coast Guard,” it said.
PUNGGYE-RI, NORTH KOREA - MAY 24: (SOUTH KOREA OUT) In this handout image provided by the News1-Dong-A Ilbo, taken on May 24, North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site explosion on May 24, 2018 in Punggye-ri, North Korea. North Korea dismantled their nuclear testing facility at Punggye-ri in front of the international media. (Photo by Handout/News1 via Getty Images)
Handout/Getty Images
North Korea expands work at nuclear test site to second tunnel, report says
In an update 15 minutes later it said the missile was believed to have landed in the sea.
The missile launch comes after the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group arrived in South Korea’s southeastern port city of Busan on Friday.
The US and South Korean navy are expected to conduct combined drills this month.
The launch also comes shortly before US Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to visit Japan and South Korea.
She will stop first in Tokyo to attend a state funeral for Japan’s assassinated former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe before heading to South Korea.
CNN · by Yoonjung Seo,Junko Ogura,Larry Register · September 25, 2022
2. North Korea's Missile Tests Are Part of a Political Warfare and Blackmail Strategy
My thoughts as I have written many times consolidated in the article below.
North Korea's Missile Tests Are Part of a Political Warfare and Blackmail Strategy
19fortyfive.com · by David Maxwell · September 25, 2022
North Korea has done it again, which is no surprise. While the ROK/U.S. alliance and the international community has been waiting for a seventh nuclear test or a possible test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile in preparation for the visit by Vice President Harris or in response to the port call of the USS Ronald Reagan, Kim decided to test another suspected ballistic missile, launching it into the East Sea on September 25.
The heart of North Korea’s strategy is this. It is executing a combination of political warfare to subvert the South and the alliance and blackmail diplomacy to extort concessions from the South the U.S., and the international community through the use of increased tensions, threats, and provocations. This while continuing to develop advanced warfighting capabilities to achieve the regime’s single strategic aim – domination of the peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State to ensure the regime’s survival. These three lines of effort, political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and advanced warfighting capabilities are mutually supporting and reinforcing.
The issue usually top of mind among national leaders and the media is the continued employment of provocations to support the regime’s blackmail diplomacy to gain political and economic concessions. Thus, the alliance must have a comprehensive plan for addressing them.
The alliance should view provocations as an opportunity rather than a threat. They provide the alliance with the opportunity to demonstrate that Kim Jong Un’s political warfare and military strategy will fail. This is done first and foremost by not making any concessions.
The ROK and U.S. should ensure the press, pundits, and public understand that this is a fundamental part of North Korean strategy and that it conducts provocations for specific objectives. It does not represent a policy failure; it represents a deliberate policy decision by Kim Jong-un to continue to execute his political warfare strategy. The following is a reprise of a response framework previously:
First, do not overreact. But do not succumb to the criticism of those who recommend ending exercises. Always call out Kim Jong-un’s strategy. As Sun Tzu would advise: ” …what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy; … next best is to disrupt his alliances.” Ensure the international community, the press, the public in the ROK and the U.S., the elite, and the Korean people living in the north know what Kim is doing.
Second, never ever back down in the face of North Korean increased tension, threats, and provocations.
Third, coordinate an alliance response. There may be times when a good cop-bad cop approach is appropriate. Try to mitigate the internal domestic political criticisms that will inevitably occur in Seoul and D.C. Do not let those criticisms negatively influence policy and actions.
Fourth, exploit the weakness in North Korea – create internal pressure on Kim and the regime from his elite and military. Always work to drive a wedge among the party, elite, and military (which is a challenge since they are all intertwined and inextricably linked).
Fifth, demonstrate strength and resolve. Do not be afraid to show military strength. Never misunderstand the north’s propaganda – do not give in to demands to reduce exercises or take other measures based on North Korean demands that would in any way reduce the readiness of the combined military forces. The north does not want an end to the exercises because they are a threat; they want to weaken the alliance and force U.S. troops from the peninsula, which will be the logical result if they cannot effectively train.
Sixth, depending on the nature of the provocation, be prepared to initiate a decisive response using the most appropriate tools, e.g., diplomatic, military, economic, information and influence activities, cyber, or a combination.
One of the vital elements of superior political warfare is attacking the enemy’s strategy. This requires recognizing, understanding, exposing, and attacking it with information.
Without recognizing and understanding the North Korean strategy, it cannot be adequately explained to the policymakers, the press, and the population. Again, the alliance appears to align regarding the regime’s nature, objectives, and strategy. This provides the lens through which provocations must be understood so that provocations can be explained and exposed. Exposing the strategy is critical for developing public support for alliance actions and countering calls from pundits to make concessions. This provides the “why” for alliance actions.
Attacking the regime’s strategy requires an information and influence activities campaign. The alliance should employ a strategy working group that focuses on developing and employing appropriate influence activities. It must not simply be reactive but ongoing between provocations to continue emphasizing the failure of the regime’s strategy.
Image: KCNA/North Korean State Media.
One key element of an information and activities campaign must be responding to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. When the alliance publicly discusses the north’s nuclear weapons, it reinforces Kim Jong Un’s legitimacy. His Propaganda and Agitation Department can shape the message that the alliance and the world fear the north’s “trusted shield and treasured sword” of nuclear weapons. It can use this as justification for the sacrifices and suffering of the Korean people in the north by telling them that their efforts to support nuclear weapons development are successfully protecting them from external attack. While nuclear weapons legitimize Kim and the regime, human rights undermine legitimacy. When the alliance adopts a “human rights upfront approach” every time there is a nuclear issue, the alliance can raise human rights. The fundamental message is that Kim must deny human rights to remain in power and that the Korean people suffer because of Kim’s deliberate decision to prioritize the nation’s resources for nuclear weapons and missile development and support to the regime elite and military over the welfare of the Korean people. The alliance must continuously emphasize this theme and message.
Responding to provocations with a superior political warfare strategy through information and influence activities will have a cumulative effect on the regime elite, military leadership, and Korean people by showing that Kim’s strategy is not in their best interests. This will exert pressure on Kim that he may not be able to withstand over time. Above all, no concessions must be provided to him. Once concessions are made, he will judge his strategy as a success and continue to double down on its execution.
There are two other critical aspects of a superior political warfare strategy. First, the ROK must strengthen its political institutions vulnerable to North Korean subversion. The actions of the United Front Department and the 225th Bureau are focused on undermining the legitimacy of the ROK government by creating political opposition.
The second is simply maintaining the strength of the alliance. Since the regime seeks to divide the alliance with the ultimate objective of removing U.S. troops from the Korean peninsula, it is imperative that ROK and U.S. political and military leaders continuously reinforce the strength of the alliance. Despite distractions throughout the INDOPACIFIC and worldwide, the new Yoon and Biden administrations have conducted consistent high-level diplomatic and military engagement. This must be sustained.
Image: Creative Commons.
The ROK/U.S. alliance should take the opportunity presented by every North Korean provocation to show that Kim Jong Un’s political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and warfighting strategies will fail. Demonstrating strength and resolve and never giving in to North Korea’s demands are the basic tenets of a provocation response but the alliance should also include a human rights upfront approach as part of a political warfare and information and influence response.
Kim Jong Un must recognize that any action he takes will undermine regime legitimacy.
David Maxwell, a 1945 Contributing Editor, is a retired US Army Special Forces Colonel who has spent more than 30 years in Asia and specializes in North Korea and East Asia Security Affairs and irregular, unconventional, and political warfare. He is the Editor-in-Chief of Small Wars Journal. He is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Senior Fellow at the Global Peace Foundation (where he focuses on a free and unified Korea), and a Senior Advisor to the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy.
19fortyfive.com · by David Maxwell · September 25, 2022
3. S. Korea's NSC condemns N. Korea's missile launch 'provocation'
It seems this is intended solely as a provocation due to the timing with multiple upcoming events and that apparently this is not a new missile or that they are testing in a way to advance their missile program. Again this likely is in support of the regime's political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies and deliberate provocation to achieve desired regime effects.
Plus, Kim likes to conduct these events on weekends and holidays to mess with the staffs who have to work on analysis and recommended responses.
S. Korea's NSC condemns N. Korea's missile launch 'provocation' | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · September 25, 2022
SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's presidential National Security Council (NSC) on Sunday condemned North Korea's test-firing of a short-range ballistic missile as a "provocation" that heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the region.
The condemnation came as National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han chaired an emergency meeting shortly after Pyongyang fired the short-range ballistic missile into the East Sea.
President Yoon Suk-yeol was briefed about the North's launch of the ballistic missile, the presidential office said.
The NSC "condemns the ballistic missile launch as a clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and a provocation that heightens tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the region, and makes it clear that it cannot be justified for any reason," according to the office.
The NSC also took note of the North's missile launch because it was the first test-firing since Pyongyang adopted a law that enshrines its readiness to launch preventive nuclear strikes earlier this month.
The North's missile launch came two days after a nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft carrier arrived in South Korea for joint drills.
South Korea's military said it detected the launch from an area in or around Taechon, North Pyongan Province, at 6:53 a.m., and that it flew some 600 kilometers at an apogee of around 60 km at a top speed of Mach 5.
kdh@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · September 25, 2022
4. N. Korea fires one short-range ballistic missile into East Sea: S. Korean military
As an aside, this is one of the benefits of having the US special representative for north Korea located in the region. Being in nearly the same time zone makes consultation easier despite Ambassador Kim being dual hatted as the Ambassador to Indonesia as well.
Excerpts:
The country's top nuclear envoy, Kim Gunn, had back-to-back phone consultations with his American and Japanese counterparts -- Sung Kim and Takehiro Funakoshi, respectively -- and agreed to strengthen coordination against Pyongyang's saber-rattling, according to Seoul's foreign ministry.
(5th LD) N. Korea fires one short-range ballistic missile into East Sea: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 25, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with nuclear envoys' consultations, other details in paras 9-11)
By Song Sang-ho
SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile into the East Sea on Sunday, South Korea's military said, two days after a nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft carrier arrived here for allied drills.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launch from an area in or around Taechon, North Pyongan Province, at 6:53 a.m., and that it flew some 600 kilometers at an apogee of around 60 km at a top speed of Mach 5.
The intelligence authorities of the South and the United States are conducting a detailed analysis for other details, the JCS said.
The launch came as U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris plans to visit Seoul later this week and the allies are set to hold a joint maritime exercise in the East Sea, involving the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group.
Soon after the launch, JCS Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum and Gen. Paul LaCamera, the commander of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, had discussions on security coordination.
"They reaffirmed that through the planned South Korea-U.S. maritime exercise and other efforts, they would further solidify a combined defense posture against any North Korean threats and provocations," the JCS said in a text message sent to reporters.
It strongly urged the North to immediately stop all ballistic missile tests, saying such a launch is an act of "significant provocation that undermines peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula as well as in the international community," and a "clear" breach of U.N. Security Council resolutions.
"While monitoring and tracking North Korean movements to prepare against any additional provocation in close cooperation with the U.S., our military will maintain a firm readiness posture based on the capability to respond overwhelmingly to any North Korean provocation," the JCS said.
The military is looking into the possibility that the projectile fired was the KN-23 missile, which is similar to the Russian Iskander, a source said.
South Korea's presidential office, meanwhile, convened a National Security Council meeting and condemned the North's move.
The country's top nuclear envoy, Kim Gunn, had back-to-back phone consultations with his American and Japanese counterparts -- Sung Kim and Takehiro Funakoshi, respectively -- and agreed to strengthen coordination against Pyongyang's saber-rattling, according to Seoul's foreign ministry.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command stressed Washington's security commitment to its Northeast Asian allies.
"While we have assessed that this event does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to our allies, the missile launch highlights the destabilizing impact of the DPRK's unlawful WMD and ballistic missile programs," the command said in a press release. DPRK stands for the North's official name, Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The launch followed reports that Pyongyang seems to be preparing to fire a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
It marked the North's fifth missile launch since the Yoon Suk-yeol administration took office in May.
Pyongyang last fired eight short-range ballistic missiles in June.
Harris plans to visit Seoul on Thursday after attending the state funeral of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo -- a trip that the White House said is designed to highlight the "strength" of America's alliances with both nations.
It marks her first formal visits to the Asian allies since taking office last year.
The USS Ronald Reagan, a centerpiece of the U.S.' naval might, arrived in the southeastern port city of Busan on Friday to stage its first combined drills with the South Korean Navy in five years.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 25, 2022
5. Japan ambassador voices positive view of Yoon-Kishida meeting in New York
Some good news.
Japan ambassador voices positive view of Yoon-Kishida meeting in New York | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · September 25, 2022
SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- Japanese Ambassador to South Korea Koichi Aiboshi publicly gave a positive assessment Sunday of a meeting between President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in New York last week, describing it as a "forward-looking" step to improve bilateral ties.
Aiboshi made the remarks earlier in the day at a meeting in Seoul on bilateral exchanges, days after Yoon and Kishida met in New York and agreed on the need to improve relations between the neighboring countries by resolving pending issues.
Aiboshi said the meeting between Yoon and Kishida, which took place on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, displayed Yoon's "strong willingness" to mend ties with Japan.
The envoy said Yoon and Kishida held "frank and meaningful" discussions during the meeting.
The meeting marked the first one-on-one talks between the leaders of the two nations since December 2019 and raised hopes of improving relations badly frayed over wartime forced labor and other issues related to Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula.
Yoon has repeatedly expressed a commitment to improve the bilateral relationship in a departure from his liberal predecessor, Moon Jae-in, saying the two countries should uphold the spirit of the 1998 Kim Dae-jung-Obuchi Declaration that called for overcoming the past and building new relations.
During their meeting, Yoon and Kishida also agreed to stand together with the international community in defending the universal values shared by their countries, including liberal democracy, human rights and the rule of law, according to presidential officials.
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en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · September 25, 2022
6. Yoon faces mounting calls to replace national security team
Wow. Give me a break. These are diplomats and national security professionals not miracle workers. A fundamental problem of judgment here is that critics assess Kim Jong Un's actions as policy failures. Such an assessment shows the critics have little understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. Korea is in a tough neighborhood. Park Jin stood up to China on the "Three Nos." The Yoon administration is making a strong good faith effort to improve ROK-Japan relations and trilateral cooperation. Yes the economy is facing challenges. The US IRA is a problem but the ROKa nd US are engaged to try to work through it.
None of the challenges the ROK faces are a result of policy failures. And although the national security team members are not miracle workers they also need to have some time to implement policies to make improvements.
Pundits, please have some patience. Changing the national security team in mid stride will surely make the administration stumble.
Yoon faces mounting calls to replace national security team
The Korea Times · September 25, 2022
President Yoon Suk-yeol and first lady Kim Keon-hee arrive at Seoul Airport in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, Saturday. Yonhap
President's approval rating falls below 30 percent after 7-day overseas trip
By Nam Hyun-woo
President Yoon Suk-yeol is facing mounting calls to replace his aides in charge of foreign affairs and national security, as his seven-day trip to the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada resulted in multiple controversies.
Yoon, who returned home on Saturday night, did not hold an in-flight press conference, as he is believed to be avoiding thorny questions about his diplomatic gaffes that took place during the trip. With the president anticipated to take questions from reporters on his way to work on Monday, all eyes are on whether Yoon will accept and respond to the heavy criticism.
During the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea's (DPK) Supreme Council meeting, Friday, Rep. Jung Chung-rae said that Yoon should replace his aides for foreign affairs after the "diplomatic disasters" that took place during his trip last week.
"Foreign minister Park Jin and Office of National Security Director Kim Sung-han should be sacked immediately, and senior presidential secretary for public relations Kim Eun-hye should also leave the office," Jung said. "Yoon, who is the one that should take all the responsibility, should apologize to the public."
DPK spokesperson Lim O-kyeong also said in a press briefing that Yoon and his ruling People Power Party (PPP) should apologize to the public for being an "international disgrace" and "damaging Korea's national reputation." She said that the president should pursue "a major reshuffle of his diplomatic team, including Foreign Minister Park Jin, for the total diplomatic incompetence shown in this trip."
Office of National Security Director Kim Sung-han, left, disembarks from the presidential jet after arriving at Seoul Airport in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, Saturday. Yonhap
The opposition's criticism follows a series of gaffes Yoon committed during his trip.
In contrast to the presidential office's announcement of Yoon's schedule ahead of the trip, the president failed to pay his respects to the late Queen Elizabeth II as she was lying in state in London on her funeral day. He also failed to hold a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden, in contrast to what his office had announced. Instead, Yoon signed the condolence book after the queen's funeral and had a 48-second conversation with Biden.
Yoon also took flak for his meeting with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, as Tokyo had been denying Seoul's announcements that the two governments had agreed to hold a summit. Yoon finally met with Kishida for what the Japanese government said was an "informal" talk, after visiting him in the building of Japan's permanent mission to the U.N. Speculation is mounting that Seoul had begged Tokyo for the summit, following Japanese media reports that the Korean government had asked for the summit multiple times.
Along with these problems, Yoon found himself mired in another controversy after he was caught on hot mic using foul language after briefly chatting with Biden at a fundraising event on Thursday.
In the video footage of that scene that went viral, Yoon said, "Biden will surely lose face if those bastards do not pass it in the Congress." The senior public relations secretary later claimed ― despite the footage ― that Yoon had not said "Biden" but a similar-sounding Korean word, and that he was referring to the Korean National Assembly and not the U.S. Congress.
While these problems have drawn a torrent of criticism at home, questions were also raised about the tangible outcomes of Yoon's trip. The presidential office said in a press release that Yoon delivered South Korea's concerns over the U.S.
Inflation Reduction Act and that Biden responded during their conversation that they would have serious consultations on the matter. But such a dialogue was not included in the White House's readout about the Yoon-Biden meeting.
President Yoon Suk-yeol talks with U.S. President Joe Biden after attending the seventh replenishment conference of the Geneva-based Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria in New York, Wednesday (local time). On the right is Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin. / YonhapOn the Japan front, the meeting between Yoon and Kishida is also drawing criticism for failing to draw tangible outcomes for bilateral relations.
"Concerns have been voiced that (Korea's) presidential office does not have experts in diplomacy with Japan," a Seoul-based analyst said, asking not to be named.
"There was unconfirmed talk that Seoul and Tokyo had agreed on the summit in principle well before Seoul's announcement, but there were differences in how the two countries have interpreted it. While Japan thought that an announcement would occur when the two sides agree on the meeting's exact schedule and format, Korea just focused on the fact that the two countries would have a summit. ... If there were experts who could have understood this difference, the summit could have been way smoother," the analyst said.
With the criticism intensifying, it remains uncertain whether Yoon's approval ratings can recover.
In a poll by Gallup Korea released on Friday, the president's job approval rating stood at 28 percent, down 5 percentage points from the previous week. The poll surveyed 1,000 adults from Tuesday to Thursday and further details are available at the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission's website.
The polling agency attributed the drop to the controversies over Yoon's diplomacy, such as his failure to pay his respects to the British queen while she was lying in state. The poll did not reflect Yoon's use of foul language following the meeting wity Biden.
The Korea Times · September 25, 2022
7. North's Sunday morning missile comes before joint South-U.S. naval exercises
Kim Jong Un just likes to mess with weekends and holidays. I can't recall how many weekends and holidays we spent underground in CC Seoul when the regime acted out. My meeting with the JSA battalion commander on Sunday morning had to be cancelled since he could not come to Seoul because of Kim.
Sunday
September 25, 2022
dictionary + A - A
North's Sunday morning missile comes before joint South-U.S. naval exercises
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/25/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-South-Korea/20220925175519100.html
Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, third from left, tours the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in Busan on Saturday. The Reagan arrived in Busan on Friday. [NEWS1]
North Korea fired a short-range ballistic missile into waters east of the Korean Peninsula on Sunday morning, South Korean military authorities reported.
According to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), the South Korean military detected the launch of a single short-range ballistic missile from Taechon, North Pyongan Province, toward the East Sea at 6:53 a.m.
South Korean and U.S. military authorities said that the missile flew approximately 600 kilometers (373 miles) at Mach 5, reaching an apex of 60 kilometers before descending into the sea.
A military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to the JoongAng Ilbo said South Korean authorities believe the missile fired by the North was a KN-23 missile, which is widely believed to be based off of the Russian Iskander short-range missile. The official added that the missile was likely fired from a mobile transporter erector launcher system.
The South Korean military said it is maintaining full preparedness while closely cooperating with the United States and strengthening its surveillance and defensive posture.
Observers believe the missile launch is a demonstration of force by the North in response to planned South Korea-U.S. joint naval exercises, and particularly the arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in Busan on Friday.
The nuclear-powered submarine USS Annapolis, which carries Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of striking the entire territory of North Korea, is also expected to participate in the joint naval drills.
The carrier strike group led by the USS Ronald Reagan will take part in exercises with the South Korean Navy in the East Sea from Sept. 26 to 29.
While it is unlikely that the North would target U.S. or South Korean naval forces with KN-23 short-range missiles while they are conducting drills, both the KN-23 as well as hypersonic cruise missiles tested by the North earlier this year are capable of changing their trajectories mid-flight, making their interception difficult for existing naval defense systems.
The Aegis ballistic missile defense system (BMD) is currently under development by the United States Department of Defense Missile Defense Agency program to provide missile defense against short to intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
Aegis BMD is an expansion of the Aegis Combat System deployed on warships, designed to intercept ballistic missiles in post-boost phase and prior to re-entry.
Sunday’s missile test by North Korea came soon after Seoul’s military said it detected signs that Pyongyang could be preparing to test a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) ahead of a visit by U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris.
The South Korean military detected preparations this week in Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, an assessment that was broadly in line with a report by U.S.-based think tank 38 North that cited commercial satellite imagery.
The South Korean presidential office released a statement on Saturday saying President Yoon Suk-yeol is aware of signs and movements that could suggest a provocation by North Korea, including an SLBM launch.
Sunday's ballistic missile launch comes 113 days after the North fired eight short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) all on the same day, June 5. It is also the fifth missile launch since the inauguration of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol in May.
Harris is set to meet with leaders of Japan and South Korea during her visit to the region next week.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
8. Seoul counters reports that Korean president's foul language was directed at U.S. Congress
The 24 hour news cycle will be over soon (probably in 38 or 72 hours). Don't make too much of this. I am sure our President and Congressmen have made vulgar comments before.
Do now dwell on this. President Yoon is human. Is he not allowed to be upset about the actions of an ally? Our leaders certainly get upset too.
Sunday
September 25, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Seoul counters reports that Korean president's foul language was directed at U.S. Congress
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/09/25/national/politics/Korea-Yoon-Sukyeol-foul-language/20220925184639702.html
Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, right, shakes hands with U.S. President Joe Biden at the Global Fund's Seventh Replenishment Conference in New York on Wednesday. [AFP/YONHAP]
Seoul's presidential office adamantly countered reports that President Yoon Suk-yeol's hot mic moment using foul language, which drew widespread backlash, was directed at the U.S. Congress and said it was instead referring to the Korean National Assembly.
On Wednesday, Yoon was caught on camera using profanity during the Global Fund's Seventh Replenishment Conference hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden in New York, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
In a video recording first released by the broadcaster MBC, Yoon apparently remarked to his foreign minister and national security adviser while exiting the fundraiser event, "If those [expletive] do not pass it in the [parliament], [Biden] will lose face."
Some parts of Yoon's remarks in the clip were drowned out by loud music and background noise.
Initial reports speculated he was referred to Biden's ambitious pledge to contribute another $6 billion to the Global Fund in cooperation with the U.S. Congress. The parliament he referred to was assumed to be the U.S. Congress.
In Korea, lawmakers of the liberal Democratic Party (DP) immediately criticized Yoon's remarks as being "humiliating" and akin to a "diplomatic disaster." They called for an apology from the president.
U.S. media outlets soon picked up on Yoon's hot mic moment "insulting" U.S. lawmakers. The Washington Post on Thursday reported "South Korean president overheard insulting U.S. Congress as 'idiots,'" and CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and other American broadcasters also reported on the incident as Yoon's remarks became viral.
However, in a press conference in New York on Thursday, Kim Eun-hye, senior presidential secretary for press affairs, said Yoon was not referring to the U.S. Congress and also said that he had made no mention of Biden.
She claimed that the actual word used was nallimeun, the Korean word for "throw out," rather than "Biden."
Kim said and Yoon was talking about how he himself would be embarrassed if Korea's National Assembly rejected the $100 million he pledged to contribute to the Global Fund.
Likewise, she said the word Yoon used for "parliament" was in fact referring to the Korean National Assembly, not the U.S. Congress.
Yoon in a short speech at the event pledged $100 million to the fund over three years as a part of efforts to fight H.I.V., tuberculosis and malaria and strengthen the global health system.
Kim said that Yoon had "no reason" to refer to the U.S. Congress or Biden in this circumstance, in response to the DP's criticism.
"Overnight, the Republic of Korea was reduced overnight to a country that mocked an allied nation which it has been together with for nearly 70 years," said Kim. "We accept criticism of the president and state affairs at any time, but distorting the president's diplomatic activities and driving a wedge between allies with lies is an act of self-harm to the national interest."
However, Kim's explanation immediately raised the ire of Korea's DP, which holds a majority in the National Assembly. DP floor leader Park Hong-keun on Friday requested an apology from Yoon "as the person responsible" for the remark.
Though not initially on the attendee list, Yoon was invited to the fundraiser event last minute after plans to hold a summit with Biden fell apart. The two leaders held a brief 48-second conversation during the event in lieu of a summit.
Korea had been anticipating the summit with Biden, as it was an important opportunity for Seoul to raise its concerns over the United States' Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which doesn't allow tax credits for electric vehicles assembled outside North America.
Yoon had three encounters with Biden during his weeklong overseas trip, including in a reception in London, the fundraiser event and another reception in New York hosted by the U.S. presidential couple for foreign dignitaries attending the UN General Assembly.
BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]
9. Korea - good and bad news
Mr. Cyr covers a lot of ground in this short OpEd.
But what struck me were his comments about remains recovery and return.
Excerpts:
Finally, on Sept. 16 an extremely important military ceremony took place on a runway at Incheon International Airport in South Korea. With practiced discipline, a Republic of Korea Army (ROK) honor guard of nine soldiers stepped precisely, uniformly toward a line of counterparts from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China.
The ROK soldiers carefully placed nine ornate polished boxes on a table. Ambassador Xing Haiming, China's representative to South Korea, ceremonially placed the flag of China on each box, which contained the remains of a Chinese soldier killed during the Korean War.
A PLA honor guard carefully carried the nine boxes into a massive Y-20 China transport aircraft. Soldiers and diplomats similarly honored more boxes of remains and personal effects of the dead. In total, 88 boxes containing China's deceased were loaded on the imposing transport.
Similar ceremonies accompanied the arrival of the aircraft in China and the burial of the remains. Two of China's state-of-the-art J-20 stealth jet fighters escorted the transport plane during landing.
Repatriation of PLA soldiers' remains began in 2014. According to South Korean defense officials, the effort reflects "international law and the spirit of humanity."
It also deters North Korea.
Korea - good and bad news
The Korea Times · September 25, 2022
By Arthur I. Cyr
Korea is in the news on several fronts, with even more noteworthy developments than usual.
First, the negative news: in the latest outrageous declaration from North Korea, leader Kim Jong-un decreed nuclear weapons may be used preemptively to defend the nation. The puppet parliament of his totalitarian nightmarish state, the Supreme People's Assembly, this month rubber-stamped a law confirming the point.
This new law follows a public rejection last month of a proposal from new South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol to provide large-scale food, economic, infrastructural and technical support. The people of North Korea, suffering in desperate poverty for decades, are in extreme need of such relief. The privileged ruling elite make clear they couldn't care less.
In a switch from the norm, North Korea leader Kim did not address this subject. Rather, his sister, Kim Yo-jong, also a senior official, rejected the offer, fueling speculation and intrigue. The new nuclear legislation indicates that Kim Jong-un, who in 2020 had been rumored to be sick, is still the leader.
More important is what is now taking place in South Korea. The government in Seoul has just imposed heavy fines on global tech companies for aggressively harvesting the personal data of their customers.
Google and Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, are being fined a combined total of the equivalent of $72 million. South Korean officials have concluded after a review of the evidence that the massive information and communications companies are not open and transparent about their practices, especially in collecting information from customers using other platforms and services.
Predictably, the corporations issued immediate denials of any unfair predatory practices, along with expressions of alarm that they are being targeted. As is usually the case when a powerful company pleads victimization, at least some healthy skepticism is in order.
Google and Meta are enormously successful players in an intensely competitive, high-stakes business environment. They can take care of themselves, and have the option of appealing in court the penalties they face.
Finally, on Sept. 16 an extremely important military ceremony took place on a runway at Incheon International Airport in South Korea. With practiced discipline, a Republic of Korea Army (ROK) honor guard of nine soldiers stepped precisely, uniformly toward a line of counterparts from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China.
The ROK soldiers carefully placed nine ornate polished boxes on a table. Ambassador Xing Haiming, China's representative to South Korea, ceremonially placed the flag of China on each box, which contained the remains of a Chinese soldier killed during the Korean War.
A PLA honor guard carefully carried the nine boxes into a massive Y-20 China transport aircraft. Soldiers and diplomats similarly honored more boxes of remains and personal effects of the dead. In total, 88 boxes containing China's deceased were loaded on the imposing transport.
Similar ceremonies accompanied the arrival of the aircraft in China and the burial of the remains. Two of China's state-of-the-art J-20 stealth jet fighters escorted the transport plane during landing.
Repatriation of PLA soldiers' remains began in 2014. According to South Korean defense officials, the effort reflects "international law and the spirit of humanity."
It also deters North Korea.
Arthur I. Cyr (acyr@carthage.edu) is author of "After the Cold War ― American Foreign Policy, Europe and Asia" (NYU Press and Palgrave/Macmillan).
The Korea Times · September 25, 2022
10. Outdoor mask mandate fully lifted, other COVID-19 rules in review
Outdoor mask mandate fully lifted, other COVID-19 rules in review
koreaherald.com · by Shim Woo-hyun · September 25, 2022
By Shim Woo-hyun
Published : Sept 25, 2022 - 15:51 Updated : Sept 25, 2022 - 15:52
People watch a baseball game at Jamsil Baseball Stadium in Seoul, Sunday. (Yonhap)
South Korea will no longer require masks for outdoor group activities, starting Monday. The government also plans to ease other antivirus measures down the road.
The outdoor mask mandate ended May 2, but was kept for outdoor gatherings of 50 or more people. The rule remained due to concerns amid the recent resurgence of COVID-19.
The government is expected to further ease the country’s antivirus measures for COVID-19. The government said it would soon introduce its future adjustments to other antivirus rules.
The antivirus measures that could be eased in the near future include the testing requirement for all passengers arriving in South Korea from overseas, a mandatory seven-day quarantine for patients with COVID-19 and limits on visits to nursing homes.
The country's indoor mask mandate, however, is expected to remain in place for a longer period of time due to a possible resurgence in COVID-19 infections during the fall and winter seasons.
The country’s PCR test requirement for all arriving passengers to the country might be lifted soon, as the effectiveness of the PCR test requirement has been questioned recently. Many visitors to the country have not keeping the rule, and the government has also found it difficult to keep track of them.
The South Korean government may consider lifting the PCR test mandate as other countries are moving away from such rules. Currently, South Korea is one of only 10 countries among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries that still has testing requirements in place for travelers.
The PCR test requirement is currently the only antivirus measure remaining for international arrivals. On June 8, South Korea lifted its quarantine rule for international arrivals. The country also stopped requiring pre-departure COVID-19 tests on Sept. 3.
If lifted, there will be no antivirus measures for passengers entering the country.
Limitations on visiting nursing homes could be also eased soon as public calls for a change to them have been growing. On July 25, the government limited visits to local nursing homes amid a resurgence in the number of COVID-19 infections, consequently preventing some people from visiting their relatives.
The mandatory seven-day quarantine for patients infected with COVID-19 is another antivirus measure that is expected to be discussed among medical experts. The government is likely to gradually shorten the quarantine period as recent surveys suggest the overwhelming majority of people have formed COVID-19 antibodies in their system.
According to a recent government survey on some 10,000 people, 97.4 percent had COVID antibodies, 57.7 percent of whom had formed antibodies through infection.
The country’s health agency said a considerable number of people seem to have recovered from the virus without reporting their infections.
By Shim Woo-hyun (ws@heraldcorp.com)
11. [Editorial] Foul language
Again, this should be much ado about nothing. This too shall pass.
[Editorial] Foul language
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · September 25, 2022
President Yoon Suk-yeol returned home Saturday, wrapping up his three-nation trip that covered two important events. One was the state funeral of the Queen Elizabeth II in London, and the second was holding summits with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Both events turned out to be less than desirable. And something unexpected also took place, taking Seoul's political scene by storm.
In a bad start to his trip, Yoon failed to visit the queen while she was lying in state, missing viewing the coffin on his first day in London due to traffic problems.
The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea called it a “diplomatic disaster.” Of course, this assessment might sound overblown, but what came next was more than a disappointment.
On his second stop, New York, he was supposed to attend the UN General Assembly and hold a series of bilateral summits on the sidelines. In particular, much attention was paid to Yoon’s planned summits with President Biden and Prime Minister Kishida.
It turned out that Yoon did not have a formal summit with Biden due to scheduling issues. Instead, they talked with each other for 48 seconds at an event in New York on Wednesday.
Then came the shocker. A video emerged of Yoon using foul language right after talking with Biden. Yoon’s use of graphic words captured in the video stirred up a huge controversy, as Yoon was initially believed to be referring to lawmakers of US Congress in relation to the Inflation Reduction Act, which is set to deal a severe blow to Korean carmakers.
The president's office denied Thursday that Yoon used vulgar language in reference to US Congress. It claimed he was talking about a political situation in Korea where the National Assembly is controlled by the main opposition party.
As Yoon did not explain what he meant by his profanity-laced words, it is still unclear whether he was indeed targeting Korean lawmakers, or something else. Nonetheless, the fact remains that Yoon was careless about opening his mouth in public places, and it was not the first time that he used a crude expression that sparked disputes.
A senior presidential official was quoted by a local media outlet as saying that it is “highly inappropriate to draw a link between private remarks and diplomatic accomplishments,” apparently in response to the criticism that painted Yoon’s trip as a diplomatic disaster. But even if what he said was supposedly a private conservation, the level of language was far below what's required for a national leader. More importantly, with many cameras nearby at the public event, Yoon should have thought twice before using such expressions.
The summit between Korea and Japan did not go well either. Given that relations between the two nations are frosty due to fierce disputes over wartime forced labor and other touchy issues, hopes were high that Yoon might have an opportunity to improve the problem-laden situation. Again, scheduling issues occurred, turning the summit into “informal talks” that lasted around 30 minutes. In a hurriedly arranged meeting, Yoon visited the venue of an event hosted by Kishida in New York, which also touched off criticism from opposition parties in Seoul.
A presidential official described the informal talks as "the first step toward producing tangible results.” But a closer look at what came out from the meetup reveals nothing substantial or meaningful, except that Yoon was quite desperate to meet with Kishida, who seemed unenthusiastic about the talks.
Given that Yoon’s hectic overseas schedule was predominantly tainted by his own foul language that shocked people and angered the opposition party members, he should realize that his careless words have people wondering whether he is fit to be a national leader.
By Korea Herald (khnews@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · September 25, 2022
12. S. Korea's new COVID-19 cases under 30,000 for 3rd straight day
Some good news. I thought that cases would have increased after Chuseok.
(LEAD) S. Korea's new COVID-19 cases under 30,000 for 3rd straight day | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · September 25, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with details of military cases from para 6)
SEOUL, Sept. 25 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's new COVID-19 cases remained below 30,000 for the third straight day Sunday in a sign that the virus wave is slowing down at a steady pace.
The country reported 25,792 new COVID-19 infections, including 248 from overseas, bringing the total caseload to 24,620,128, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said.
Newly reported virus cases have shown a steady downward trajectory as of late after the COVID-19 omicron variant surged again in early July and peaked above 180,000 cases on Aug. 17.
New deaths from COVID-19 rose to 73, up from 24 a day ago, putting the death toll at 28,213. The fatality rate was 0.11 percent.
The number of critically ill patients came to 416, down two from a day earlier.
In its own daily update of a related tally, South Korea's military reported 199 additional COVID-19 cases, raising the total caseload among its service members to 277,311.
The new cases included 147 from the Army, seven from the Navy, 19 from the Air Force, 15 from the Marine Corps and 11 from units under the direct control of the ministry.
Currently, 2,120 military personnel are under treatment.
odissy@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · September 25, 2022
13. Meet the nuclear weapons scientist trying to cut the world's stockpiles
Meet the nuclear weapons scientist trying to cut the world's stockpiles
Siegfried Hecker serves as a scientific shuttle diplomat, building ties with rival nuclear researchers the world over.
Stephen Shankland
cnet.com
When you think of efforts to pare down the world's nuclear weapons stockpiles, maybe you imagine heads of state and uniformed generals sternly staring down their military rivals across a huge table.
Reality, though, looks very different.
Picture instead a white-haired, US weapons scientist sidestepping the summit meetings and heading directly to research labs in Russia, China, Pakistan and even North Korea to chat about physics and build the direct ties that may be more effective at establishing trust than edicts from the top brass.
That man is Siegfried Hecker, former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory and now a professor emeritus at Stanford University. He's one of the few people in the world who can appreciate exactly what it meant when a member of North Korea's nuclear weapons program handed him a glass jar warmed by the radioactive decay of the plutonium inside. Or the dramatic unveiling in 2010 of thousands of centrifuges at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear site to make weapons-grade uranium.
Hecker -- Sig for short -- has been working on nuclear weapons diplomacy for decades. In the 1990s, after the Soviet Union dissolved and the Russian economy faltered, he was central to a program that led to the dismantlement of thousands of nuclear warheads while ensuring jobs for his Russian counterparts. That work led to similar cooperation with other countries: Hecker has traveled to Russia 56 times, China 38 times, North Korea seven times, India six times and Pakistan once.
"Everywhere I go in the nuclear world, Los Alamos is considered the mecca of all places nuclear. The doors open up," Hecker says. "I feel this special responsibility -- when they open the doors, I need to walk through."
That peer-to-peer contact arguably is more important than ever. The US withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty this month after alleged Russian noncompliance. Russia is talking about deploying hypersonic nuclear missiles that some say the US military can't stop. And the 2011 New START treaty reining in US and Russian nuclear stockpiles likely will expire in 2021.
But even with the frosty US-Russia relationship these days, Hecker will make his 57th trip there in November.
Hecker is comfortable enough donning a suit and tie when giving congressional testimony or speaking to Energy Department officials, but when I meet him in his office at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, his red polo shirt, tan slacks and brown leather shoes reflect the more casual look typical of Los Alamos or Silicon Valley. He's soft-spoken but intense, his passion showing when he's excited about scientific breakthroughs or frustrated by what he sees as political regression.
"I don't think the Trump administration is going to be interested in renewing," Hecker says of New START. "We've already cut back so much contact between nuclear scientists and the nuclear military. If you now go ahead and chop off the treaties, that's very dangerous."
An optimist despite it all
Today's geopolitical climate is grim in Hecker's view. He speaks regretfully of the demise of the US-Russian collaboration. He enthusiastically endorsed the US-Iran nuclear accord that President Donald Trump withdrew from last year and that Iran now is taking steps to defy. He worries about the dangers of Trump's 2017 threat of unleashing "fire and fury" on North Korea.
Yet he calls himself an optimist. "Fundamentally, I'm a believer in international cooperation."
That might sound surprising given the strident nationalism on display across the world stage, but Hecker has been pushing his agenda for decades with both Republican and Democratic administrations.
And he's made a difference.
"We can only guess how many catastrophes have been avoided because of Sig's work on nuclear safety and security," says former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, now co-chair of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, an organization dedicated to reducing the dangers of weapons of mass destruction. "We do know that global risks have been significantly reduced because of his cooperative efforts with scientists from the former Soviet Union in the 1990s."
Siegfried Hecker examines evidence in 2008 that the North Koreans had disabled some of their nuclear weapons manufacturing equipment.
Courtesy of Siegfried Hecker
A global view
Even before mastering plutonium chemistry and leading a premier nuclear weapons lab, he knew there was a world beyond the US border. Hecker was born in Poland in 1943, but his father disappeared fighting for the Germans on the Eastern Front of World War II. After the war, he lived in converted Army barracks in Austria, having a good time skiing and playing soccer despite the lack of running water or central heating.
In 1956, at age 13, he moved to the United States. Four years later, he was named valedictorian of Cleveland's East High School and won a scholarship to Case Western Reserve University.
He measures his milestones from his arrival in the US: five years to obtain US citizenship, nine years to get a security clearance for a summer job at Los Alamos, 30 years to become director of LANL. Although he spent the early 1970s as a metallurgist at General Motors, he returned to Los Alamos in 1973 and rose through the ranks of materials science.
He's still an avid skier -- he served as president of the Los Alamos Ski Club that once ran the local Pajarito Mountain Ski Area -- and he wears a Fitbit activity tracker on his wrist today. But even after so long in the US, he remembers his experience as an immigrant.
"I have a soft spot for refugees and immigrants. I will never forget how this country welcomed me with open arms," he says. The US granted similar opportunities to the refugees and immigrants who escaped Hitler's Germany before the war and helped to build the first atomic bomb at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project, he adds.
Hecker stepped down as LANL director in 1997 -- he spent his last day on the job at Tomsk-7 (or Seversk), a Russian nuclear weapons production site in Siberia. But he still returns often to an office in Los Alamos where he keeps mementos like the diploma marking him a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
At LANL, he became an expert in the weird ways of plutonium, the radioactive metal made in nuclear reactors to fuel modern nuclear weapons. "Plutonium is without question the most complex and interesting of all metals," Hecker and two colleagues wrote in a 1983 publication. For one thing, as a solid, plutonium can take six different forms called allotropes, each with different properties (a seventh allotrope occurs when plutonium is under pressure). For comparison, iron has only four allotropes. Another tricky factor is that solid plutonium expands dramatically when it gets warmer -- except sometimes it contracts.
Its properties are crucial for the challenge of maintaining the US nuclear weapons stockpile as it ages decades beyond its original expected lifespan. But if you read Hecker's 46-page assessment of plutonium, written after stepping down as LANL director, you'll see he appreciates plutonium's weird physics, not just its military and political importance.
Life after the lab
Over a dozen years, Hecker has taught about 3,000 students at Stanford about the intersection of technology and national security. Accolades and mementos adorn his office; there's a Chinese print of flowers, a pair of gold-rimmed engraved plates from Russia's nuclear weapons lab in Sarov. A copy of his book about the US-Russian nuclear collaboration, Doomed to Cooperate, is jammed into a bookshelf covering two walls of his office. A window overlooks Stanford's green lawns, towering oaks and sandstone arches.
"He's got a ton of credibility," says Miles Pomper, a senior fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). "The hardliners are not going to just be able to dismiss someone like Hecker. He can physically eyeball things in a way very few people can."
North Korea says it's developed a hydrogen bomb -- a powerful thermonuclear weapon -- and indicated it's small enough to fit on a missile. In this Korean Central News Agency photo from September 2017, leader Kim Jong-Un inspects the design.
AFP photo/KCNA via KNS/Getty
His worldview is grounded in the idea of looking at the world from others' perspectives -- something he says he learned in Austria but still applies when he visits scientists across the world. "In the United States, we tend to be so incredibly America-centric. We're only 300 million out of 7 billion people, for heaven's sake."
Seeing other weapons researchers on their own turf has been crucial, he adds: "You can only understand them by being there."
It's why he believes that the North Korean regime isn't suicidal -- so belligerent it would provoke the US into a nuclear war. And he's learned from visiting many Russians in their homes. "They're so much like us -- it's a civil society, one that's into the traditions of music and art and family culture."
Grounded in physics
Hecker knows exactly how nuclear weapons work, which is handy when it comes to verifying treaties or figuring out North Korea really has a hydrogen bomb.
Take that moment in 2004 when he scrutinized that jar of North Korean plutonium. The funnel-shaped sample looked like oxidized plutonium, but Hecker asked to hold it, too. That let him check if it was heavy enough to match plutonium's high density and warm enough to indicate radioactive decay.
"It was both -- heavy and warm," Hecker says. (Glass stops the relatively slow, heavy alpha particles of plutonium's radioactive decay, though Hecker wore gloves in case the jar's outside was contaminated.)
"It was Sig's firsthand experience in some of North Korea's nuclear facilities that really first affirmed that North Korea's nuclear capabilities were the real deal," says Grace Liu, a CNS analyst.
Siegfried Hecker (center) visits the plutonium facility at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear research center in 2007.
Courtesy of Siegfried Hecker
Hecker also got a good look at North Korea's single working nuclear reactor on that trip, scrutinizing its control room, tracking the spent fuel rods crucial to making plutonium, and getting a measure of its plutonium production ability. And he confirmed the country's reprocessing plant, for extracting uranium and plutonium from spent fuel rods, operated at industrial scale.
To assess a country's nuclear weapons capability, Hecker uses a three-point evaluation: its knowledge of how to build a nuclear weapon; its supply of weapons-grade materials like plutonium and enriched uranium; and its missile technology to deliver a bomb.
Right now, North Korea has all three -- though with limitations, Hecker believes. Iran has the know-how and the missiles, but is a bit short on ingredients.
Types of nuclear weapons
There are two basic types of nuclear weapons: fission and fusion bombs. Fission bombs use the release of energy that accompanies the splitting of heavy uranium or plutonium atoms. Fusion bombs use the energy released by the merging of lighter atoms such as hydrogen and lithium.
The most basic fission bomb is the gun type, which the US set off over Hiroshima in 1945. In it, a detonation of conventional explosives slams two pieces of highly-enriched uranium together. The uranium reaches critical mass -- atoms split and release energy and neutrons that trigger more splitting -- and explodes. You can't make a gun type bomb with plutonium -- it releases more neutrons than uranium, causing a premature, feeble detonation, Hecker says.
Because gun-type weapons are easy to design, the most effective way to limit the spread of nuclear weapons is to control the nuclear materials needed to build them, says Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, a high-energy physicist at CNS.
"With modern weapons-grade uranium, terrorists would have a good chance of setting off a high-yield explosion simply by dropping one half of the material onto the other half," he says.
A more sophisticated fission bomb uses implosion. A carefully constructed shell of conventional high explosives detonates on the outside of a sphere of plutonium or highly enriched uranium, compressing the core and causing the explosion. The US used plutonium-based fission bombs in both its Trinity test in New Mexico in July 1945 and the Nagasaki attack a month later. Adding tritium -- a variety of hydrogen with two neutrons instead of the more common zero -- can boost the power of implosion weapons.
"These designs are more sophisticated, and you really need to test it to get it to work," Dalnoki-Veress says.
But it's fusion bombs -- the thermonuclear or hydrogen weapons that make up all modern nuclear arsenals -- that are most explosive. They begin with a smaller fission bomb "primary" that releases enough energy to trigger the fusion "secondary." This two-stage reaction is more complicated, but it delivers more explosive power, which makes it more efficient for weight-constrained missiles.
Thermonuclear bombs are the world's most powerful weapons. Warheads like the United States' B83 have an explosive yield the same as 1.2 million tons of TNT, about 80 times the explosive power of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs and 600,000 times more powerful than the 1995 fertilizer bomb that destroyed the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City. The Soviet Union holds the record in explosive power with the 50-megaton Tsar Bomba, a thermonuclear bomb that swept ground zero as smooth as a skating rink in 1961 with a detonation more powerful than all bombs dropped in World War II.
Newer nuclear weapons emphasize accuracy over explosive power, but you wouldn't want to be near an explosion. A 1.2 megaton bomb can flatten homes more than 4 miles away and cause third-degree burns 8 miles away.
No matter what design is used, weapons designers want plutonium when launching missiles. "Plutonium is so much more potent than uranium," Hecker says. Although you can make a uranium-triggered hydrogen bomb, "plutonium is much preferred for nuclear warheads for ICBMs."
Visiting North Korea
Fifteen years ago, when North Korea had a much younger nuclear weapons program, the US was fixated on the early days of the war on terror. In Hecker's view, North Korean leaders believed at the time their country wasn't getting the attention and respect it deserved.
Hecker's Stanford colleague John Lewis, an expert in Asian political science, made several trips to North Korea, and in 2004, the country invited him to Yongbyon. Lewis persuaded Hecker to come along to offer technical expertise, Hecker recounts. North Korea, eager for recognition, was amenable.
In fact, it was harder to sell the US government on the idea of sending one of its senior weapons experts, Hecker said. As he put it, then Vice President Dick Cheney's attitude was, "We don't talk to evil. We destroy it." But Hecker's allies in Washington, D.C., prevailed.
Skeptics didn't believe North Korea's claims that it could make nuclear weapons, but Hecker became convinced they could during his visit to the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, a site about 60 miles north of the capital, Pyongyang. It's also home to a nuclear reactor along with nuclear weapons research and manufacturing facilities.
"When you spend time with the scientists, discussing the density of plutonium in the delta phase [a metallic, workable form], you get insights you can't possibly have from the outside or get around a negotiating table," he says.
His 2007 and 2008 visits confirmed some disablement of North Korea's weapons program. But then came a difficult period after President Barack Obama took office. He'd told dictators, "we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist." But then North Korea announced a satellite launch that Western powers saw as a threatening display of nuclear missile expertise.
Surprise -- 2,000 centrifuges
Hecker's last visit to Yongbyon came in 2010, when the North Koreans had a final message to send: They'd built a full-scale uranium enrichment facility.
The facility uses centrifuges to rapidly spin a gaseous form of uranium. Natural uranium is 99.3% Uranium 238 -- a particular variety of the element with 238 protons and neutrons. But weapons require a concentration of at least 90% U-235, a lighter version with three fewer neutrons. Spun fast enough, the lighter U-235 collects toward the center of the centrifuge, where it can be skimmed off and sent to the next centrifuge. This cascading arrangement gradually produces the weapons-grade, highly enriched uranium.
North Korea's Nyongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center includes the blue-roofed building for enriching uranium so it's useful in bombs. This satellite photo is from April 2019.
Satellite image ©2019 Maxar Technologies
Although spy satellites can monitor plutonium manufacturing in a nuclear reactor, they can't easily track uranium enrichment in centrifuges. So the North Koreans built the facility right under the US's nose, so to speak.
"They showed me these 2,000 centrifuges. Quite frankly, my jaw dropped," Hecker says. "I knew they had centrifuges. I knew they were doing enrichment. But I had no idea they had this many in that modern a facility and in a building I had been in a couple of years before."
Just as in 2004, when showing Hecker they could make plutonium, the North Koreans were using Hecker's expertise to tell the rest of the world they had serious nuclear weapons capability. In effect, North Korea used the centrifuge display to tell Hecker, "Now we have the second path to the bomb," he said.
Hecker is willing to go back, but currently there's no need. He says North Korea now communicates its nuclear capabilities with weapons tests detectable across the globe, missile launches visible from space and government photos of Kim Jong Un inspecting nuclear weapons designs.
North Korea's first five nuclear tests from 2006 to 2016 ranged in power up to the equivalent of about 7 to 14 kilotons of TNT, roughly the same size as the two US atomic bombs exploded over Japan during World War II. Scientists infer the magnitudes from the way the explosions cause shock waves to traverse Earth, in effect ringing it like a bell. But the sixth test, in 2017, now looks to have been about 250 kilotons.
"At 250, this was thermonuclear, and it was a hydrogen bomb," Hecker says.
His deep knowledge of bombs and how North Korea makes them is why he's frustrated by US-North Korea nuclear summits. Even though Trump and Kim are willing to challenge their countries' hardliners, each side was overconfident in the 2019 summit talks at Hanoi, Vietnam, Hecker says. At the last minute, North Korea offered to give up all its Yongbyon operations, he says, but it was too late.
"When Trump walked away from Hanoi, he got applause from both sides of the aisle. But he walked away from what could have been a blockbuster deal," Hecker said.
"That was a deal that would bring Americans back into Yongbyon," where the US can see what's going on. Even if they maintain covert work elsewhere, that's slower and harder, he says. "They make a lot more progress when we're not there."
Back from the brink
It's not Hecker's job anymore to keep the aging US stockpile working, but his expertise is still in demand. One ongoing project is to keep a close eye on 16 aspects of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. What is its ability to make plutonium and tritium? To enrich uranium? How active is Yongbyon? He also tracks related factors like US financial aid and the tone of North Korean diplomatic communications for a broader view.
He refers to the research as he discusses his work with North Korea, calling the charts up on a MacBook perched in front of a standing desk with tape covering its webcam. Color codes offer a roadmap toward denuclearization that the US and North Korea both can accept.
It's all part of Hecker's approach toward improving relations. You don't get everything you want at once. The US normalizes some relations while North Korea takes some early steps toward denuclearization. Next comes some sanction relief, maybe a nonaggression pact, and eventually a peace treaty. "We're talking at least about a 10 year process," Hecker says.
Small steps worked with Russia. The US-Russian nuclear collaboration grew out of his contacts with Russian nuclear scientists who came to the Nevada Test Site for a 1988 treaty enforcement activity called the Joint Verification Experiment. At its peak, more than 1,000 Russians and Americans were involved in the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program. "You get a better sense of where the other side is coming from," he says.
And ultimately, personal connections lay a foundation for trust -- the kind of relationship that can be deeper than a treaty.
"Trust takes a long time to develop, but can be destroyed quickly. The world is on a terrible trajectory right now," he says. But during his tenure as LANL director and scientific shuttle diplomat, he's seen seven presidents come and go.
Give it another decade. Maybe his optimism will be rewarded.
cnet.com
14. North Korea inspects air-raid shelters as tensions rise with US
Perhaps Kim is expecting a response. He inspected facilities before he initiated action this weekend.
North Korea inspects air-raid shelters as tensions rise with US
americanmilitarynews.com · by Radio Free Asia · September 24, 2022
This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission.
North Korean officials are inspecting air-raid shelters in factories and other businesses to assess their wartime readiness, although some poorly maintained bunkers are winning approval due to bribes, sources said.
The random inspections usually occur during times of increased tensions with the U.S. or South Korea, a company official in the eastern province of South Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
“This inspection is a project to complete war preparations so they can implement the party’s civil defense policy to protect the homeland,” said the source.
“The Civil Defense Department of the Central Committee issued a directive to each organization and company to be well-equipped for air-raids, following joint military exercises between South Korea and the U.S. conducted in August,” he said.
Tensions ratcheted higher on Sept. 8 when the country’s leader Kim Jong Un declared to the Supreme People’s Assembly that North Korea would never give up nuclear weapons. Earlier that same day the assembly passed a law that lays out situations where Kim would be authorized to order a preemptive nuclear strike.
Other sources told RFA that the inspections could be a reaction to the recently held high-level Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group meeting between South Korea and the U.S., and Washington’s deployment of B-1B strategic bombers and nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to the Indo-Pacific region.
The South Hamgyong source said the air-raid shelter inspections assess shelter capacity, interior lighting, durability and the functionality of loudspeakers.
“Most factories and companies already have air-raid protection. But not all employees are able to evacuate, and the shelters aren’t really all that safe,” said the source.
“The Civil Defense Department is aware of this situation. They randomly inspect the air-raid shelters of institutions and companies to keep them on their toes for shelter maintenance,” he said. “If their company or organization receives a poor evaluation, managers and lower-level party secretaries will be scolded.”
But sometimes bribes can convince inspectors to overlook deficiencies. A factory in Unhung county in the northern province of Ryanggang passed its inspection, despite its poor condition, a source there told RFA.
“They call it a shelter, but all of the necessary preparations were not met at all,” the second source said on condition of anonymity to speak freely. “There are two air-raid shelters in our factory. They are so small that they can only protect half of our 120 workers.”
The factory had been putting off maintenance of the shelter for a long time, according to the second source, so they scrambled to get it ready for the inspection.
“It has been a while since the roof of the air-raid shelter collapsed and the entrance door fell off. However, it was left unattended until now. The factory mobilized workers to fix it and rebuilt it ahead of this inspection,” he said.
“Since the air-raid shelter is dug out of the ground, during the rainy season, the rain collects inside, which causes its soil walls to collapse. Every time an inspection happens, the workers struggle to fix the air-raid shelters in a hurry,” the second source said.
The civil defense officials are aware that the shelter is not up to snuff, but they pass it anyway because factory officials bribe them, he said.
“They can get meals or packs of cigarettes to cover up any deficiencies if the condition of the air-raid shelter is not severe. It makes me laugh to hear that they have completed preparations for war after making a shelter that really is only a small crypt space,” the source said.
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americanmilitarynews.com · by Radio Free Asia · September 24, 2022
15.
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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