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Quotes of the Day:
“This is a political war and it calls for discrimination in killing. The best weapon for killing would be a knife, but I'm afraid we can't do it that way. The worst is an airplane. The next worst is artillery. Barring a knife, the best is a rifle — you know who you're killing."
- John Paul Vann
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
- H.L. Mencken
“A popular government without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy, or perhaps both. Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives."
- James Madison, from a letter to W.T. Barry, August 4, 1822
1. Seoul's reprisal blows up after North Korean missile success
2. Allies fire 4 missiles into East Sea in response to N. Korea's provocation: military
3. USS Ronald Reagan redeploys near South Korea in wake of North's latest missile test
4. U.S. and South Korea hold live-fire drills in response to North Korean missile launch over Japan
5. The Missiles of North Korea
6. The Korea-US Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group: Evaluation and Issues
7. U.S. Marine F-35Bs, Japanese Fighters Fly Show of Force Mission Following North Korean Missile Test
8. The Rebel and the Kingdom: The True Story of the Secret Mission to Overthrow the North Korean Regime Hardcover – November 1, 2022
9. Biden sends letter to Yoon expressing willingness for talks on IRA
10. N. Korea threatens missile strike on Guam
11. USS Ronald Reagan does U-turn after North's missile
12. Missile misfires, creates fireball on golf course
13. In a crisis, Yoon must watch his words
14. North Korea's Hwasong-12 IRBM Launch over Japan: Why It Matters
15. South Korea faces growing calls to acquire nuclear weapons
1. Seoul's reprisal blows up after North Korean missile success
As Clausewtiz described the trinity: passion, reason, and chance - chance is the province of military operations. You take a risk in trying to demonstrate weapons capabilities in that sometimes they fail.
Here is a twitter exchange based on first reports before it was reported to be a missile failure.
David Maxwell
@DavidMaxwell161
·
14hAny other reporting on this? Recall that in 1996 the nK Sango submarine washed up on the beach near this location carrying about a dozen nK SOF infiltrating the region (and about 26 total personnel with the navy crewmen) Air bases are priority targets for nK SOF & missiles.
Quote Tweet
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
·
16hThere are currently Unconfirmed reports of a number of Large Explosions occurring at Gangneung Air Base on the East Coast of South Korea, this Air Base houses the South Korean Air Forces’s 18th Fighter Wing, although damage to Facility is currently not known.
Show this thread
Seoul's reprisal blows up after North Korean missile success
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · October 4, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — A malfunctioning South Korean ballistic missile blew up as it plowed into the ground Wednesday during a live-fire drill with the United States that was a reprisal for North Korea’s successful launch a day earlier of a weapon that flew over Japan and has the range to strike the U.S. territory of Guam.
The explosion and subsequent fire panicked and confused residents of the coastal city of Gangneung, who were already uneasy over the increasingly provocative weapons tests by rival North Korea. Their concern that it could be a North Korean attack only grew as the military and government officials provided no explanation about the explosion for hours.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said no injuries were reported from the explosion, which involved a short-range Hyumoo-2 missile that crashed inside an air force base on the outskirts of the city.
A Joint Chiefs of Staff official, who spoke on condition of anonymity during a background briefing, said the missile’s warhead didn’t explode during the crash and that the fire was caused by burning rocket propellant. The official said the missile fell soon after liftoff and that no civilian facilities were affected.
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Kwon Seong-dong, a governing party lawmaker representing Gangneung, wrote on Facebook that a “weapons system operated by our blood-like taxpayer money ended up threatening our own people” and called for the military to thoroughly investigate the missile failure. He also criticized the military for not issuing a notice about the failure while maintaining a media embargo on the joint drills.
“It was an irresponsible response,” Kwon wrote. “They don’t even have an official press release yet.”
South Korea’s military acknowledged the malfunction hours after internet users raised alarm about the blast and posted social media videos showing an orange ball of flames emerging from an area they described as near the air force base. It said it was investigating what caused the “abnormal flight” of the missile.
Officials at Gangneung’s fire department and city hall said emergency workers were dispatched to the air force base and a nearby army base in response to calls about a possible explosion but were sent back by military officials.
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The U.S. and South Korean militaries are conducting the joint exercises to show their ability to deter a North Korean attack on the South. During Tuesday’s drills, they conducted bombing runs by F-15 strike jets using precision munitions and launched two missiles each that are part of the Army Tactical Missile System.
Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan was scheduled to return to waters east of South Korea on Wednesday to demonstrate the allies’ “firm will” to counter North’s continued provocations and threats. The carrier was part of drills last week with South Korea and Japan.
The homegrown Hyumoo-2 is key to South Korea’s preemptive and retaliatory strike strategies against the North. Some versions of the missile are similar to Russian-designed Iskander missiles, which also inspired a localized variant in North Korea as it expands its arsenal of nuclear-capable short-range weapons designed to evade South Korea’s missile defenses.
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North Korea’s successful launch of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile hours before the drills was the country’s most provocative weapons demonstration since 2017 and was its fifth round of weapons tests in 10 days.
That missile has a range capable of striking Guam, which is home to one of the largest military facilities maintained by the U.S. in Asia. North Korea in 2017 also tested missiles capable of hitting the continental United States.
Japan’s lower house, the more powerful of the two-chamber parliament, adopted a resolution on Wednesday condemning North Korea’s launch, saying that the flight over Japan posed a “grave and imminent” threat to the country’s security.
South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the country’s deputy nuclear envoy, Lee Tae-woo, met with U.S. counterpart Jung Park in Seoul on Wednesday to discuss the recent North Korean launches and vowed to strengthen three-way cooperation with Tokyo to counter the threat and bring Pyongyang back to the negotiation table.
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North Korea has fired nearly 40 ballistic missiles over about 20 different launch events this year, exploiting Russia’s war on Ukraine and the resulting deep divide in the U.N. Security Council to accelerate its arms development without risking further sanctions.
Its aim is to develop a fully fledged nuclear arsenal capable of threatening the U.S. mainland and its allies while gaining recognition as a nuclear state and wresting concessions from those countries.
The United States, Britain, France, Albania, Norway and Ireland called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council over the latest North Korean launch. The open meeting was scheduled for 3 p.m. Wednesday.
Washington’s nuclear diplomacy with Pyongyang has stalled since 2019 over disagreements in exchanging the release of crippling U.S.-led sanctions against the North and the North’s disarmament steps.
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AP writer Mari Yamaguchi contributed to the report from Tokyo.
See more AP Asia-Pacific coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/asia-pacific
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · October 4, 2022
2. Allies fire 4 missiles into East Sea in response to N. Korea's provocation: military
JDAMs, ATACMS, and the HYUNMOO could wreak havoc on north Korean missile sites and any other targets throughout the north.
Of note: it appears that we fired armed missiles and not ones with dummy warheads.
Excerpts:
The South's military, meanwhile, fired one Hyunmoo-2C ballistic missile, but it fell inside the base after an abnormal flight. Its warhead was found around 1 kilometer backward from the launch point and just 700 meters away from the nearest civilian home, a JCS official said on the customary condition of anonymity.
There have been no casualties reported as the military is looking into the exact cause of the incident.
The propellant was burned, while the warhead itself did not explode, it added. Relevant authorities plan to examine all Hyunmoo-2C missiles in operation to ensure they have no defects.
It is "very regrettable" that local residents were surprised by that, the official added.
(3rd LD) Allies fire 4 missiles into East Sea in response to N. Korea's provocation: military | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 5, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in paras 5, 7)
By Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, Oct. 5 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States fired four ground-to-ground missiles into the East Sea on Wednesday in joint drills, a day after North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) launch, according to the South's military.
The two sides each launched two Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles, which precisely hit mock targets and demonstrated the allies' deterrence capability, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
On Tuesday, the North fired an IRBM from Mupyong-ri in its northern province of Jagang in its first launch of an IRBM in eight months. It flew around 4,600 kilometers over Japan and landed in the Pacific.
The allies are maintaining a full readiness amid the possibility of additional provocations by the North, the JCS said in a press release without specifying the exact location and time of the drills. Residents in and around the eastern coastal city of Gangneung said they saw a bright flash and heard a strong roar apparently from the training at around 1:00 a.m.
The South's military, meanwhile, fired one Hyunmoo-2C ballistic missile, but it fell inside the base after an abnormal flight. Its warhead was found around 1 kilometer backward from the launch point and just 700 meters away from the nearest civilian home, a JCS official said on the customary condition of anonymity.
There have been no casualties reported as the military is looking into the exact cause of the incident.
The propellant was burned, while the warhead itself did not explode, it added. Relevant authorities plan to examine all Hyunmoo-2C missiles in operation to ensure they have no defects.
It is "very regrettable" that local residents were surprised by that, the official added.
Later Wednesday, the top military officers of South Korea and the U.S. held phone consultations on ways to respond to evolving nuclear and missile threats from the North.
JCS Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum and his U.S. counterpart, Gen. Mark A. Milley, condemned the North's IRBM launch and warned that the North would face a stronger combat posture from the allies if it continued its provocations, Kim's office said.
South Korea and the U.S. held a joint air training Tuesday, in which a South Korean F-15K fighter fired two Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) precision bombs at a firing range on a Yellow Sea island.
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 5, 2022
3. USS Ronald Reagan redeploys near South Korea in wake of North's latest missile test
We must keep up the pressure and show Kim Jong Un his political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and warfighting strategies will fail. There is no reason to ever panic over his provocations. We must demonstrate strength and resolve.
USS Ronald Reagan redeploys near South Korea in wake of North's latest missile test
Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · October 5, 2022
An EA-18G Growler launches from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in the Pacific Ocean, Sept. 14, 2022. (Michael Jarmiolowski/U.S. Navy)
CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan is redeploying to South Korea’s eastern coast less than a week after it concluded trilateral naval drills with South Korean and Japanese warships.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff in a press release Wednesday said the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group would be entering international waters in the East Sea, also known as the Sea of Japan, on the same day due to “highly unusual” timing of North Korea's activities.
On Tuesday, the communist regime fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean.
The strike group’s redeployment “demonstrates the determined will of the [South Korea]-U.S. alliance and will enhance the readiness posture of the alliance against consecutive North Korean provocations,” the Joint Chief’s statement said.
The strike group made port in and around the coastal city of Busan on Sept. 23, shortly before a four-day drill with South Korean warships to address “North Korean provocations with an aim to improve capabilities” of the U.S. and South Korean navies, according to South Korea's Ministry of National Defense.
The ships were joined by the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force for an anti-submarine warfare exercise on Sept. 30, the first such drill in five years.
North Korea has launched several missiles since those drills. It has carried out five rounds of tests in a span of 10 days and 22 tests so far this year, a record.
Tuesday’s IRBM test prompted the Japanese government and U.S. military to issue alerts warning people to seek shelter. The incident marked the first time in five years that North Korea has fired a missile over Japan.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, during a news conference immediately following the launch, described it as an “extremely problematic act.”
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol presided over a meeting with the country’s National Security Council and said the “reckless nuclear provocation” would only bolster Seoul’s defense capabilities and its alliance with Washington.
Allies’ response
Hours after the test, four South Korean F-15K Slam Eagles and four U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons dropped two Joint Direct Attack Munition, or JDAM, bombs on an island target in the Yellow Sea.
The joint exercise resembled a similar drill by South Korea after the North launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on March 24. Seoul fired several ground-to-sea missiles and dropped two bombs into the East Sea then as a show of force.
A U.S. Indo-Pacific Command news release on Tuesday’s joint exercise referred to North Korea’s latest test and said the JDAMs showcased the “combined deterrent and dynamic strike capabilities” of the U.S. and South Korea.
“The U.S. remains committed to peace and prosperity through the region in order to secure a free and open Indo-Pacific,” the statement said. “Our commitment to the defense of [South Korea] and Japan remains ironclad.”
U.S. and South Korean forces followed that up with another exercise early Wednesday. The two sides launched four Army Tactical Missile System surface-to-surface missiles toward the East Sea to demonstrate their “reaction capability” and “for the purpose of deterring further provocations” from North Korea.
One of its missiles was successfully launched but the other failed, a South Korean military official told Stars and Stripes by phone Wednesday. No casualties were reported, and an investigation is ongoing. South Korean officials customarily speak to the media on condition of anonymity.
“South Korea and the U.S. showed they have the capabilities and posture to incapacitate the origin points of provocations, no matter where North Korea provokes, while always maintaining their surveillance level on North Korea,” a statement from South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Wednesday.
North Korea’s state-run media outlets had not published details of its missile launch as of Wednesday morning. The outlets, such as the Korea Central News Agency, often release unverified specifications of the projectiles following a launch and criticize military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea.
Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · October 5, 2022
4. U.S. and South Korea hold live-fire drills in response to North Korean missile launch over Japan
We must press ahead at the UN Security Council despite Chinese and Russian opposition. We need to give them every opportunity to show the world they side with the rogue powers and do not act as respsonsiblememeber os the international community.
Excerpts:
What we're watching: The United Nations Security Council was meeting on Wednesday at the request of the U.S. to discuss the widely condemned North Korean missile launch that prompted warnings in Japan for residents to take shelter as the weapon flew over.
- White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said at a briefing Tuesday the launch was a "clear violation" of Security Council resolutions.
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Officials from China and Russia opposed the meeting, Reuters notes.
U.S. and South Korea hold live-fire drills in response to North Korean missile launch over Japan
Axios · by Rebecca Falconer · October 5, 2022
The U.S. and South Korean held joint live-fire military drills in response to Pyongyang's longest-range ballistic missile test that caused alarm in Japan as it flew over the country on Tuesday.
Driving the news: The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command tweeted that the exercises were designed to "showcase combined deterrent & dynamic strike capabilities" following the North Korean military's first missile launch over Japan in five years and its fifth test in just over a week.
A South Korean F-15K fighter fires two Joint Direct Attack Munition precision bombs into an island target on Tuesday in response to North Korean ballistic missile launch earlier in the day. Photo: South Korean Defense Ministry via Getty Images
Of note: Officials in Seoul apologized after a South Korean missile failed and crashed near Gangneung during one of the drills on Wednesday.
-
There were no reports of injuries, but the explosion from the malfunctioning missile caused panic in the South Korean coastal city among residents who were already worried about North Korean missiles, AP reports.
What we're watching: The United Nations Security Council was meeting on Wednesday at the request of the U.S. to discuss the widely condemned North Korean missile launch that prompted warnings in Japan for residents to take shelter as the weapon flew over.
- White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said at a briefing Tuesday the launch was a "clear violation" of Security Council resolutions.
-
Officials from China and Russia opposed the meeting, Reuters notes.
Editor's note: This article has been updated with a photo of an Army Tactical Missile System being fired and further context.
Axios · by Rebecca Falconer · October 5, 2022
5. The Missiles of North Korea
Some excellent points from the Wall Street Editorial Board on deterrence and defense spending. But like most pundits who periodically weigh in when north Korea periodically acts out they offer little substantive way forward. But there is so much more than can be done.
As I have outlined many times, while we want to announce the failure of our policies and criticize our strategy we need to take advantage of these provocations to demonstrate that Kim's strategies will fail. We need to aggressively attack his strategy on the information and influence front (an existential threat to the regime), undertake a human rights upfront approach (another existential threat to the regime) and look at taking more substantive actions than the necessary but temporary shows of force. One thing the three allies can do right now is to announce the formation of a trilateral integrated missile defense system (ROK, Japan, and US) which will send the right message to Kim but also piss off China (also a good thing). There is so much more we can do other than take short term actions only when Kim acts out. We need our long term plan B strategy based on a human rights upfront approach, comprehensive influence operations, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.
We must never forget that the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
Therefore, the bottom line is the only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. A free and unified Korea or in short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK). Let's start acknowledging this.
The Yoon and Biden administrations have an opportunity for a new approach to the Korean security challenge. The Alliance way ahead is an integrated deterrence strategy as part of the broader strategic competition that is taking place in the region. There is a need for a Korean “Plan B” strategy that rests on the foundation of combined ROK/U.S. defensive capabilities and includes political warfare, aggressive diplomacy, sanctions, cyber operations, and information and influence activities, with a goal of denuclearization but ultimately the objective must be to solve the “Korea question” (e.g., the unnatural division of the peninsula per para. 60 of the Armistice) with the understanding that denuclearization of the north and an end to human rights abuses and crimes against humanity will only happen when the Korea question is resolved that leads to a free and unified Korea, otherwise known as a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
Apologies to the horse for beating it so dead.
The Missiles of North Korea
Another launch over Japan shows the need to reinforce deterrence.
By The Editorial BoardFollow
Oct. 4, 2022 6:57 pm ET
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-missiles-of-north-korea-japan-military-defense-test-launch-11664921178?utm_source=pocket_mylist
As if the world didn’t have enough threats, North Korea is again firing ballistic missiles. There isn’t much opening for diplomacy here, so the best response is to strengthen the credibility of the conventional and military deterrent in Northeast Asia.
Tuesday’s test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan triggered air raid sirens and instructions to take shelter. Think of Cuba sending a missile over Florida.
The missile test was the 23rd this year, the highest annual pace ever. It follows a threat to respond to the recent resumption of U.S.-South Korea military drills. Tuesday’s launch was also the longest to date at more than 2,800 miles, a reminder that North Korean missiles have the range to threaten the U.S. territory of Guam some 2,100 miles away.
President Trump suspended the allied military exercises as he fruitlessly courted Mr. Kim, and President Biden deserves credit for resuming them as a sign of U.S. resolve. Mr. Kim usually acts up this way when he wants to frighten Western countries to return to talks so he can coerce more money from them. The U.S. and Seoul have tried the bribery route many times, but the North isn’t going to give up its nuclear threat, which is the only reason anybody pays attention.
The North has made strides toward developing a missile that could reach U.S. cities. It is also developing missiles to carry multiple warheads to be able to evade missile defenses. In September North Korea reaffirmed its commitment to being a nuclear power, listing five conditions it would use for a pre-emptive strike, including if an attack on military or strategic targets were “imminent.”
The U.S. has asked for a United Nations Security Council meeting on Wednesday, but don’t expect more than pro forma denunciations. North Korea’s patrons in China and Russia, which hold permanent seats on the council, would veto any meaningful effort to punish the North. The same goes for the resumption of the “six-party talks” with the North that have failed many times.
The original sin was letting the North get the bomb, and now the best response is deterrence. As Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine invasion and nuclear threats show, the U.S. conventional and nuclear deterrent isn’t as credible as it once was. Mr. Biden on Tuesday called the U.S. commitment to the region “ironclad,” which is important after Mr. Trump’s uncertain trumpet. But the words have to be backed by credible military deployments and clear communication about the response if the North stages a pre-emptive attack. That has to be understood in Pyongyang and Beijing as the annihilation of the Kim regime.
The U.S. defense budget needs a major spending increase from 3% toward 5% or more of GDP, where it nearly was in 2010. Japan is gradually moving to increase its military budget to 2% of GDP from the 1% cap rooted in the country’s post World War II pacifist constitution. South Korea can also do more.
The post-Cold War era is over, and a new axis is forming against allied democracies. China seems to view Pyongyang’s nuclear posturing as a useful irritant and won’t block the provocation. Russia is happy to have the U.S. worry about a front other than Ukraine. Mr. Biden and other leaders have to explain to the American people the reality of this dangerous new world and what is required to meet it.
Appeared in the October 5, 2022, print edition as 'The Missiles of North Korea'.
6. The Korea-US Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group: Evaluation and Issues
Good to see something like this written by a serving officer.
The conclusion is spot on:
In conclusion, the EDSCG, which South Korea and the United States resumed after nearly five years, re-emphasized the principle of fulfilling the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence, and agreed on the principle of continuing working-level meetings to strengthen the TDS. In this respect, the EDSCG can be evaluated as having contributed somewhat to resolving the security instability related to the North Korean nuclear threat. However, in order to substantially increase the deterrence of North Korea on the Korean peninsula, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration will need to devise practical measures to enhance the “Three Cs” – capability, credibility, and communication – which will help play a role in practical deterrence through more thorough preparation and response tactics.
The Korea-US Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group: Evaluation and Issues
3 points need to be addressed in future working-level EDSCG meetings in order to resolve the fundamental insecurity presented by the North Korean nuclear threat.
thediplomat.com · by Park Ki-Chul · October 4, 2022
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On September 16, the U.S. and South Korea Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) meeting was held at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C. It was the first such meeting in four years and eight months. With South Korean society’s increasing demand for more active measures to counter the North Korean nuclear threat, attention has been focused on the joint statement adopted by South Korea and the U.S.
In this statement, South Korea and the United States affirmed the commitment of both sides “to use all available levers — including diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools — to strengthen and reinforce the U.S. security commitment to the ROK [South Korea] and strengthen deterrence against DPRK [North Korean] aggression, and more broadly counter the DPRK threat.” The United States reaffirmed its “ironclad and unwavering commitment” to provide extended deterrence to South Korea using all its military capabilities, “including nuclear, conventional, missile defense, and advanced non-nuclear capabilities,” and they reaffirmed that a North Korean nuclear test will face “a strong and resolute whole-of-government response.”
Korean society generally welcomed this joint statement, but it is regrettable that South Korea and the U.S. reached an agreement in principle without discussing specific implementation plans. There are three points that need to be developed in the working-level EDSCG meetings, scheduled for the first half of 2023, in order to resolve the fundamental insecurity presented by the North Korean nuclear threat. In this article, I would like to introduce the origins of the insecurity related to the North Korean nuclear threat and provide four practical points for strengthening the current South Korea-U.S. customized deterrence strategy.
The origins of insecurity in South Korean society vis-a-vis the North Korean nuclear threat can be summarized into two main categories. First, U.S. deterrence strategies greatly differ between NATO and the Korean Peninsula. In the 1960s, NATO’s non-nuclear weapon states gave up independent nuclear armament as a condition of accepting the NPT system to counter the Soviet Union’s nuclear threat, and instead agreed to share U.S. tactical nuclear weapons. When the U.S. attempted to withdraw its tactical nuclear weapons from NATO member states in 1999 and 2010, Germany and other non-nuclear members of NATO strongly opposed it.
By contrast, in the early 1990s, when the United States decided to unilaterally withdraw its tactical nuclear weapons deployed on the Korean Peninsula, the South Korean government’s inaction seriously undermined its nuclear deterrence against North Korea. Based on the assertion that the tremendous destructive power of nuclear weapons is a source of deterrence, the unilateral withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons deployed on the Korean Peninsula may have delivered a false signal to the North Korean leader about nuclear development and advancement.
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The second destabilizing factor is the issue of the U.S. commitment to provide extended deterrence. On January 26, 55 Democrats in the United States sent a letter to the White House asking President Joe Biden to adopt a “no first use” policy in the Nuclear Posture Report (NPR), which will be revised this year. The U.S. maintaining strategic ambiguity in its nuclear strategy has played an essential role since the Cold War in deterring potential adversaries, such as Russia, from using nuclear weapons. If the Biden administration adopts a “no first use” policy, it could provide room for misjudgment regarding the use of nuclear weapons for Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Although there has no observable movement so far toward adopting a “no first use” policy, the request by ruling party senators shocked allies, who cannot shake off their deep concerns about this issue.
During the presidential campaign, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol promised the people that even without a NATO-style nuclear sharing system, his administration would dramatically strengthen the current South Korea-U.S. customized deterrence strategy to deal with North Korea’s nuclear weapons. In the past, the U.S. deterrence strategy on the Korean Peninsula has shown a pattern of incremental strengthening whenever North Korea conducts a nuclear test. With North Korea ready to conduct a seventh nuclear test at anytime, it is only natural that public attention is focused on the fact that South Korea and the United States met again after four years and eight months to adopt a joint statement on deterrence. However, in order to resolve public anxiety about the North Korean nuclear threat, the following three concrete action plans should be discussed at the upcoming EDSCG working-level meeting.
First, with respect to nuclear operation planning, the United States conducts regular consultations every year through a standing organization called the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), which plans nuclear operation with NATO countries. It has a structure that fully reflects the will of the allies, as it adopts a unanimous system of decision-making. On the other hand, the EDSCG of the South Korea-U.S. Tailored Deterrence Strategy (TDS) is a non-permanent body that is convened upon request and has a structure in which regular consultations on nuclear operation are not guaranteed. Therefore, it is urgent for South Korea and the U.S. to establish a permanent body to jointly participate in and discuss nuclear operation planning.
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Second, in terms of force deployment, the United States positions about 100 non-strategic nuclear weapons in five NATO member states so that NATO countries can respond immediately in case of emergency. It also conducts onboard training every year to maintain its ability to enable an immediate response. On the other hand, in the case of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, delivering an immediate response is difficult because reactions are based on deploying strategic assets, according to the South Korea-U.S. TDS. Above all, South Koreans are deeply concerned that U.S. nuclear force strategy is being controlled by the United States’ unilateral decision-making process, without sufficient consultation. For example, when the U.S. deploys strategic assets such as the F-35A fifth-generation fighter to combined exercises and the Ronald Reagan carrier strike group used to deter North Korea’s seventh nuclear test, South Korea receives notice only at the last minute. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare an institutional mechanism for South Korea and the U.S. to put their heads together and closely discuss the process and timing of strategic asset development.
Third, training and exercises on nuclear operation should be strengthened. NATO countries conduct field training exercises (FTX) and practice every year to enable immediate nuclear operations. On the other hand, the South Korea-U.S. TDS relies on tabletop exercises (TTX) without actual practice – and even this has not been implemented recently, which is a problem that has led to many doubts as to whether current preparations will contribute to an actual increase in deterrence. The agreement to resume the suspended TTX in this joint statement is a step forward, but actual field training exercises (FTX) should be maintained in order to preserve a substantial response posture.
In particular, one of the tasks to be solved in the future is the issue of negotiating for the South Korean military to participate in the “Global Thunder” and “Global Lightening” exercises, which are conducted exclusively by the United States.
In conclusion, the EDSCG, which South Korea and the United States resumed after nearly five years, re-emphasized the principle of fulfilling the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence, and agreed on the principle of continuing working-level meetings to strengthen the TDS. In this respect, the EDSCG can be evaluated as having contributed somewhat to resolving the security instability related to the North Korean nuclear threat. However, in order to substantially increase the deterrence of North Korea on the Korean peninsula, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration will need to devise practical measures to enhance the “Three Cs” – capability, credibility, and communication – which will help play a role in practical deterrence through more thorough preparation and response tactics.
The article was originally published on Korea on Point by the Sejong Institute and is republished with permission.
Park Ki-Chul
Lt. Col. Park Ki-Chul, Ph.D., is a Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction planning officer at the U.S. Eighth Army Headquarters. He is also an adjunct professor in the Graduate School of Policy Studies, Korea University.
thediplomat.com · by Park Ki-Chul · October 4, 2022
7. U.S. Marine F-35Bs, Japanese Fighters Fly Show of Force Mission Following North Korean Missile Test
U.S. Marine F-35Bs, Japanese Fighters Fly Show of Force Mission Following North Korean Missile Test - USNI News
news.usni.org · by Sam LaGrone · October 4, 2022
Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II fighters conducted a bilateral exercise with Japan Air Self-Defense Force F-15 and F-2 fighters over the Sea of Japan. US INDO-PACOM Photo
Eleven U.S. and Japanese fighters flew a show of force mission over the Sea of Japan following a North Korean missile test over the Japanese home islands, a Pentagon spokesman said on Tuesday.
A combined force of seven Japanese Air Self-Defense Force Mitsubishi F-15J and F-2 Fighters flew with four U.S. Marine F-35B Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters over the Sea of Japan following North Korea’s Tuesday test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile.
“Our ability to work and fight and deter alongside our partners is critical in terms of deterrence, demonstrating that we do have the capability to fight together when and if we need to,” Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters on Tuesday afternoon.
“These exercises are an opportunity for our military members to work together to exercise those capabilities to one: send a message that we are prepared, and two: that if we need to fight, we can and we can do it together.”
The missile flew a provocative flight path over the Japanese home islands before splashing down in the Pacific. The launch was the first North Korean missile test over Japan since 2017 and prompted warnings for residents on the island of Hokkaido and the Aomori prefecture, Japanese officials said.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff told reporters the missile was launched from the Jagang Province and may have been a Hwasong-12, reported Reuters.
In addition to the combined Japanese and U.S. Marine Corps flight, four U.S. Air Force F-16s and four Republic of Korea F-15Ks flew a separate presence mission over the West Sea.
According to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the exercise “showcased the combined deterrent and dynamic strike capabilities while demonstrating our nation’s bilateral interoperability. During the exercise they conducted a live Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) strike in the Jikdo Range.”
The two exercises are the latest uptick of U.S. military operations in the region since tensions with Pyongyang have risen during the last several weeks.
The Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group completed a round of large-scale naval exercises with Japan and South Korea last week.
USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) drilled in the East China Sea with Korean destroyers and then in the Sea of Japan with a combined Korean and Japanese force in the Sea of Japan.
As of Monday, the strike group was in the Pacific “just to the east of northern Japan,” according to Monday’s USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker.
Ryder would not say if Reagan would return closer to South Korea and the Sea of Japan when asked by reporters on Tuesday. In terms of future tests, Ryder warned North Korea of conducting future missile or nuclear tests.
“There have been indications in the past that [North Korea] is preparing a test site for what would be its seventh nuclear test,” Ryder said. “If they do such a test — from our perspective — it would clearly constitute a grave escalatory action,” Ryder said.
“We continue to work with our Republic of Korea and Japanese partners for all contingencies and again, we’re calling the DPRK to cease these types of destabilizing and unlawful actions.”
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news.usni.org · by Sam LaGrone · October 4, 2022
8. The Rebel and the Kingdom: The True Story of the Secret Mission to Overthrow the North Korean Regime Hardcover – November 1, 2022
For the hard core Korea watchers. I have pre-ordered this.
The Rebel and the Kingdom: The True Story of the Secret Mission to Overthrow the North Korean Regime Hardcover – November 1, 2022
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0593240650?tag=randohouseinc7986-20
How did an Ivy League activist become a global fugitive? The New York Times bestselling co-author of Billion Dollar Whale and Blood and Oil chronicles the heart-pounding tale of a self-taught operative his high-stakes attempt subvert the North Korean regime.
“Propulsive . . . Hope’s account is both deeply reported and novelistic.”—Ed Caesar, contributing staff writer for The New Yorker, author of The Moth and the Mountain
In the early 2000s, Adrian Hong was a soft-spoken Yale undergraduate looking for his place in the world. After reading a harrowing account of life inside North Korea, he realized he had found a cause so pressing that he was ready to devote his life to it.
What began as a trip down the safe and well-worn path of organizing soon morphed into something more dangerous. Hong journeyed to China, outwitting Chinese security services as he helped asylum-seeking North Koreans escape across the border. Meanwhile, Hong’s secret organization, Cheollima Civil Defense (later renamed Free Joseon), began tracking the North Korean government’s activities, and its volatile third-generation ruler, Kim Jong-un. Free Joseon targeted North Korean diplomats who might be persuaded to defect, while drawing up plans for a government-in-exile. After the shocking broad-daylight assassination in 2017 of Kim Jong-nam, the dictator’s older brother, Hong, along with U.S. Marine veteran Christopher Ahn, helped ferry Kim Jong-nam’s family to safety. Then Hong took the group a step further. He initiated a series of high-stakes direct actions, culminating in an armed raid at the North Korean embassy in Madrid—an act that would put Ahn behind bars and turn Hong into one of the world’s most unlikely fugitives.
In the tradition of Jon Krakauer’s Into the Wild, The Rebel and the Kingdom is an exhilarating account of a man who turns his back on the status quo—to instead live boldly by his principles. Acclaimed journalist and bestselling author Bradley Hope—who broke numerous details of Hong’s operations in The Wall Street Journal—now reveals the full contours of this remarkable story of idealism and insanity, hubris and heroism, all set within the secret battle for the future of the world’s most mysterious and unsettling nation.
“The Rebel and the Kingdom is an expertly crafted thriller that makes you turn the page. What makes it all the more remarkable is that it’s all true. Bradley Hope is a first-rate reporter and writer, and he has found a subject worthy of his skills in Adrian Hong, a Korean American idealist who set out, improbably enough, to topple the North Korean regime.”—Max Boot, columnist for The Washington Post, author of The Road Not Taken
“One of the most harrowing and inspiring stories I’ve ever read . . . This book left me in tears. Hope tells this inconceivable and heart-wrenching story with compassion, humanity, and integrity.”—Yeonmi Park, bestselling author of In Order to Live
“The engrossing inside story of two recent events that are jaw-dropping even for North Korea, and the obsessive man behind them . . . This is a terrific piece of up-close reportage that reads like a spy thriller but is all too real.”—Anna Fifield, author of The Great Successor
“Bradley Hope has written a mystery story about an elusive human rights activist—and it reminds us all of the essential evil weirdness of the North Korean regime. Adrian Hong has disappeared, a fugitive from the FBI—but I’d wager that someday we will hear from this quixotic young man again.”—Kai Bird, director of the Leon Levy Center for Biography, Pulitzer Prize–winning author of The Outlier
“The Rebel and the Kingdom is thrilling, edifying, funny, and profound. Reading this book, I couldn’t help but feel uplifted to learn that, even in our disaffected age, there are people who are willing to give their life to a cause, whatever the personal cost.”—Kit Chellel, co-author of Dead in the Water
“The Rebel and the Kingdom is a propulsive investigation into the wild adventures of a man determined to bring down the North Korean regime, and the activists who joined him on his quest. Bradley Hope’s account is both deeply reported and novelistic. I flew through it.”—Ed Caesar, contributing staff writer, The New Yorker; author of The Moth and the Mountain
“Only Bradley Hope could take us so deep into this world of diplomats, dictators, and would-be spies and achieve a book that is both utterly gripping and darkly funny. Not since Bill Browder’s Red Notice have I gone on such an exhilarating trip into the geopolitical underbelly.”—Zeke Faux, investigative reporter, Bloomberg News and Businessweek
“A fast-paced, true-life thriller pitting a merciless North Korean state against a band of high-tech, courageous activists . . . thoroughly engaging . . . a page-turner of a spy-vs.-spy tale.”—Kirkus Reviews, starred review
“A riveting saga of one man’s unlikely crusade to free North Korea. . . . This is the stuff great political thrillers are made of.”—Publishers Weekly, (starred review)
Bradley Hope, based in London, is the New York Times bestselling co-author of Billion Dollar Whale and Blood and Oil. He is a Pulitzer Prize finalist and Gerald Loeb Award winner. Formerly a reporter for The Wall Street Journal and a correspondent in the Middle East, Hope is co-founder of Project Brazen, a journalism studio and production company.
Chapter 1
A Ready-Made Life
In the camp, there was no difference between man and beast, except maybe that a very hungry human was capable of stealing food from its little ones while an animal, perhaps, was not.
—Kang Chol-hwan, The Aquariums of Pyongyang
New Haven, Connecticut
Spring 2002
Tom Nakanishi was sitting at his desk in his dorm room at Yale University doing homework when his roommate burst in clutching a stack of articles.
9. Biden sends letter to Yoon expressing willingness for talks on IRA
But will Congress fix this?
(LEAD) Biden sends letter to Yoon expressing willingness for talks on IRA | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · October 5, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with details from 4th para)
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, Oct. 5 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President Joe Biden has sent a letter to President Yoon Suk-yeol expressing his willingness to continue frank and open-minded talks on the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, a presidential official said Wednesday.
Biden also said in the letter the previous day that he is well aware of Yoon's concerns about the IRA, the official told reporters.
The IRA gives tax credits only to electric vehicles assembled in North America, raising concerns it will act as a significant trade barrier for Korean carmakers.
Last month, Yoon asked Biden to resolve the concerns when they met on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. Biden responded at the time that he was well aware of the concerns, and that South Korea and the U.S. should continue serious consultations on the matter.
"President Biden's letter was written based on the two leaders' discussions on the IRA during their multiple meetings in New York and London last month," the official said.
"We assess that by once again expressing his understanding of our concerns through a personally signed letter and by clearly stating the positive role of South Korean businesses, President Biden expressed his commitment to President Yoon to showing consideration to South Korean businesses in the future," the official added.
The IRA has emerged as a key source of strain between the allies despite their continued cooperation on security issues amid North Korea's increased missile testing and nuclear threats.
Biden said in his letter he is confident a crucial role will be played by the U.S. alongside South Korea in strengthening the alliance and achieving their joint goals, the official said.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · October 5, 2022
10. N. Korea threatens missile strike on Guam
Excerpt:
It has become much more complex than five years ago to respond to growing threats from the North Korean provocations. Five years ago, even China favored sanctions against North Korea, pressuring the Kim Jong Un regime. Still, China and Russia are now vetoing an effort to tighten sanctions on North Korea. The support from China and Russia has puffed up North Korea. However, there is no need to be overly sensitive. We must push North Korea to voluntarily abandon its reckless gambling by demonstrating our extended deterrence with both nuclear and conventional weapons, which overwhelmingly surpasses those of North Korea. Now is the time to strengthen security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan and meticulously examine our extended deterrence strategy.
N. Korea threatens missile strike on Guam
donga.com
Posted October. 05, 2022 07:36,
Updated October. 05, 2022 07:36
N. Korea threatens missile strike on Guam. October. 05, 2022 07:36. .
North Korea fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile on Monday in Mupyeong-ri, Jagang-do, which flew over Japan and fell in the Pacific Ocean after traveling approximately 4,500 kilometers at an altitude of 970 kilometers. The test showed North Korea’s ability to fire a missile far enough to hit not only Okinawa, where the U.S. military base is stationed but also the U.S. Island of Guam, a hub for the U.S. strategic assets. North Korea’s missile launch that flew over Japan was the first in five years since September 2017. South Korea, the U.S., and Japan condemned the North Korean missile provocation in unison. Japan issued an emergency alert and activated an evacuation order in some regions.
Fifth in the past 10 days, North Korea’s intermediate-range missile launch may signal its threats of strategic provocations against the Korean Peninsula and beyond in that it is an armed protest targeting Japan and the United States. Unlike the previous four short-range missile provocations, North Korea demonstrated its ability to strike the U.S. forces that would be deployed to the Korean Peninsula in an emergency. In particular, some strategic assets like the B-52 strategic bomber force currently stationed in Guam are crucial assets for deterrence against North Korea. North Korea intends to precipitate a fissure by testing the U.S. commitment to its alliance with South Korea and Japan.
North Korea is likely to conduct SLBM and ICBM tests and the seventh nuclear test, thereby mounting more provocations, seemingly in an attempt to restore the “fire and fury” threat, which drove the Korean Peninsula into extreme confrontations and the brink of war five years ago. It is also the intention of North Korea to concertize its position as a de facto nuclear power, such as India and Pakistan, and lead the negotiation with the U.S. to nuclear disarmament rather than denuclearization.
It has become much more complex than five years ago to respond to growing threats from the North Korean provocations. Five years ago, even China favored sanctions against North Korea, pressuring the Kim Jong Un regime. Still, China and Russia are now vetoing an effort to tighten sanctions on North Korea. The support from China and Russia has puffed up North Korea. However, there is no need to be overly sensitive. We must push North Korea to voluntarily abandon its reckless gambling by demonstrating our extended deterrence with both nuclear and conventional weapons, which overwhelmingly surpasses those of North Korea. Now is the time to strengthen security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan and meticulously examine our extended deterrence strategy.
한국어
donga.com
11. USS Ronald Reagan does U-turn after North's missile
Wednesday
October 5, 2022
dictionary + A - A
USS Ronald Reagan does U-turn after North's missile
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/05/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-IRBM/20221005175714980.html
A South Korean F-15K fighter fires two Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guided bombs at a firing range on the uninhabited island of Jikdo in the Yellow Sea on Tuesday evening in response to the North Korean launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that flew over Japan in the morning. [JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF]
The USS Ronald Reagan is turning around and coming back to the East Sea to respond to North Korea's launch of an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) over Japan on Tuesday, according to the South Korean military on Wednesday.
The aircraft carrier’s U-turn, which Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) described as “highly unusual,” is meant to “strengthen the joint South Korean-U.S. readiness” and “showcase the steadfast determination of the South Korea-U.S. alliance to respond sternly to North Korea’s continuous provocations and threats,” according to the JCS.
The USS Ronald Reagan was heading away after finishing four-day joint naval exercises with the South Korean Navy in the East Sea on Sept. 29. The Ronald Reagan carrier strike group arrived in Busan on Sept. 23
The decision to send the group back to the East Sea follows a joint pledge by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden during a summit in Seoul in May to deploy U.S. strategic assets to South Korea.
The four-day exercise in the East Sea involved more than 20 vessels, including the aircraft carrier, the nuclear-powered USS Annapolis submarine and South Korean destroyers ROKS Seoae Ryu Sung-ryong and ROKS Munmu the Great.
North Korea has conducted five missile tests in the past 11 days, with the first taking place on the morning of Sept. 25, two days after the aircraft carrier’s arrival in South Korea.
The North launched two missiles last Wednesday, another two the following day, two on Saturday, and a single IRBM on Tuesday.
While the North’s state media has remained silent on the recent spate of tests, observers believe they were a response to the allies’ joint naval exercises, and particularly the participation of the Ronald Reagan.
Experts believe the IRBM launched by the North from Mupyong-ri, Chagang Province on Tuesday morning to be the same Hwasong-12-type missile last fired in January.
The IRBM flew farther than any before — 4,600 kilometers (2,850 miles) — travelling over Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean, reaching an apex of 1,000 kilometers and a terminal speed of Mach 17 in its final re-entry phase, according to South Korean military authorities.
In response to the test, a South Korean F-15K fighter fired two Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guided bombs at a firing range on the uninhabited island of Jikdo in the Yellow Sea on Tuesday, the South Korean military said.
The JCS said that the F-15K dropped the JDAM bombs on Jikdo following air drills with U.S. warplanes in a joint strike group consisting of four South Korean F-15Ks and four U.S. F-16 fighters.
U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms) surface-to-surface missiles are fired during a joint South Korea-U.S. drill early Wednesday morning. [JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF]
The South Korean and U.S. militaries also each fired a pair of U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms) surface-to-surface missiles, according to a Wednesday statement from Seoul’s defense ministry.
The ministry said the Atacms launches had been done in retaliation for Pyongyang’s farthest-ever missile test, following up on President Yoon’s promise of a “stern response.”
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan held separate telephone conversations with his South Korean counterpart, Kim Sung-han, and Japanese counterpart, Takeo Akiba, soon after Tuesday's missile launch, according to U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson.
“In both calls, the national security advisors consulted on appropriate and robust joint and international responses and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reinforced the United States’ ironclad commitments to the defense of Japan and the ROK,” she said, referring to South Korea by the acronym of its official name, Republic of Korea.
President Biden also spoke to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Tuesday and reiterated the U.S. “ironclad commitment to Japan’s defense,” calling the launch “a danger to the Japanese people,” the White House said.
Fighters from the U.S. Marine Corps and the Japan Self-Defense Forces also conducted a joint drill, the White House said.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held separate calls with his South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, according to department spokesperson Ned Price.
“Secretary Blinken, Foreign Minister Park, and Foreign Minister Hayashi strongly condemned the launch and its blatant disregard of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions and its deeply destabilizing implications for the region,” the State Department press release said.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
12. Missile misfires, creates fireball on golf course
Wednesday
October 5, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Missile misfires, creates fireball on golf course
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/05/national/defense/Korea-South-Korea-Hyunmoo2/20221005184305952.html
A photo uploaded to social media late Tuesday night by residents close to the 18th Fighter Wing Air Base in Gangneung, Gangwon shows a fire caused by a Hyunmoo-2 short-range ballistic missile crashing shortly after being launched. [YONHAP]
A Hyunmoo-2 short-range ballistic missile malfunctioned and crashed shortly after being launched from a South Korean military base late Tuesday night during a joint drill by South Korea and the United States, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).
The drill was a response to North Korea’s launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on Tuesday morning.
In its initial 7 a.m. press release, the JCS said that South Korea and the United States each launched two U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (Atacms) surface-to-surface missiles beginning at 12:50 a.m. on Wednesday, which accurately hit mock targets and demonstrated the allies’ capability to deter further provocations.
The press release did not specify the exact location of the drills.
Military vehicles arrive Wednesday to clear up debris from the site where a Hyunmoo-2 missile crash landed the previous night. [NEWS1]
The press release made no mention of a South Korean-made Hyunmoo-2 missile fired more than an hour earlier, which crashed almost immediately after its launch.
Residents around the eastern coastal city of Gangneung, Gangwon, reported a fire and a loud explosion close to the location of the 18th Fighter Wing Air Base at around 11:30 p.m. Tuesday night. Reports of the joint drill were embargoed until 5 a.m. Wednesday.
Images uploaded to social media by local residents showed an orange fireball.
The South Korean military was forced to issue a clarification about the Hyunmoo-2’s crash-landing after reports of the explosion spread.
“Immediately after its launch, the missile flew inland instead of toward the sea and abnormally landed on a golf course on the base at a location approximately 700 meters (765 yards) from a civilian residential area,” said a military official who spoke to the JoongAng Ilbo on condition of anonymity, implying the missile’s trajectory had been intended for the East Sea.
“The flames (the residents saw) were not from the warhead exploding, but rather from the propellant burning,” he added. “There was no damage to civilians nearby as the missile crashed within the base immediately after the launch.”
He acknowledged the panic caused by the missile’s crash, noting that local residents “must have been taken very much by surprise.”
Another unnamed military official told the JoongAng Ilbo that safety precautions at the site ensured the Atacms drill could take place even after the crash.
“Transporter erector launchers (TELs) were deployed at locations far from each other, so after handling the accident, we conducted a safety inspection and carried on with the Atacms firing drill,” he said.
The explosion led to frantic phone calls by residents to local government authorities, according to an official at the Gangneung City Hall who spoke on condition of anonymity to Agence-France Presse.
“At first we didn’t know what was going on because we didn’t receive any notice from the military about such an exercise,” she added.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
13. In a crisis, Yoon must watch his words
Invoking President Reagan.
Conclusion:
Yoon must find a breakthrough with his rhetoric before sincerely seeking cooperation from the DP. Anger can be tamed by pleas and empathy. Former U.S. President Ronald Reagan used to discuss and refine his rhetoric with his aides before proposing a national agenda. President Yoon must understand that an impromptu monologue or offhanded text messaging can trigger a political conflict in this country.
Wednesday
October 5, 2022
dictionary + A - A
In a crisis, Yoon must watch his words
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/05/opinion/columns/Yoon-Sukyeol-crisis-words/20221005194406578.html
Kim Dong-ho
The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.
President Yoon Suk-yeol called on his Cabinet members to work hard for the country until their “shoe soles wear out.” Yoon indeed has been busy caring for the livelihoods of Koreans. Yet public approval ratings on his performance are under 30 percent. Though he has been playing his presidential role hard, his endeavors have been undone by a string of controversies around his behaviors and comments.
There cannot be a magic wand to make all the troubles and noise go away. The president has no other choice but to continue visiting people in need and communicating with them. He must send a strong message to unite the people. Without a clear message, any agenda the government seeks could be muffled in political disputes. Upon returning from North America, the president talked about his efforts to draw foreign capital to Korea and address the discrimination against Korean companies by the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. But none got much attention since there was no mention of how the government would respond to the looming economic dangers. His comment about keeping an emergency mode 24/7 cannot be enough.
As the South Korean economy is in peril, foreign media outlets are raising alarm. Bloomberg cited the Korean won and Thai baht the most vulnerable to a currency crisis in Asia. The U.S. dollar last week raged towards 1,450 won. The won’s vulnerabilities won’t ease much even if the U.S. Federal Reserve yanks up the benchmark rate to 4.5 percent by the year-end and the Bank of Korea tries to keep up with a bigger-than-expected rate hike to lessen the gap.
The government is stumbling to clam the markets. Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Choo Kyung-ho met with former heads of the Financial Services Commission to seek their advice for crisis times.
President Yoon Seol-yeol reports to work at the presidential office in Yongsan, October 4. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
On Oct. 1, Choo had a teleconference with U.S. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen to get a U.S. promise to supply liquidity if volatilities worsen. Authorities are making assurances that they will take preemptive action to keep a financial crisis at bay. But market conditions are worsening, helping to escalate political conflict among lawmakers.
The ambience ominously resembles the foreign exchange crisis in 1997. Foreign media and financial institutions warned of a looming crisis at the time, but Korean bureaucrats kept insisting on the strength of Korea’s economic fundamentals. A month later, Korea had to seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund to avoid a national default.
Fundamentals of the Korean economy are strong today. At that time, the debt ratio of major companies exceeded 500 percent. This time, the ratio has dropped to under 200 percent. Large companies also hold their overseas revenue in foreign currency after finding the government not to be relied on if another currency crisis comes. That was a hard lesson earned from the 1997 currency crisis. The capabilities in chips, batteries, automobiles and other core manufacturing fields cannot be compared to 25 years ago.
But if concerns about the exchange rate grow, economic fundamentals cannot be of any protection. Korea’s foreign exchange reserves have been thinning since the peak of $469.2 billion last October. Amid instability in the exchange rate, local companies have suspended investment to stock up on cash. The trade balance has been in deficit for six consecutive months. Out of 15 mainstay exports, 10 have been falling on year. Mortgage rates already exceed 7 percent. For debtors, crisis has already arrived.
A presidential comment during crisis times is very important. Yoon must hold emergency meetings each day instead of saying the government is in emergency mode. Every word from the president affects the government, cabinet members and the legislature. If his remarks are entirely focused on the economy, public sentiment could change.
Yoon has been in hot water over his hot-mic moment during a recent trip to New York. Although what he said after a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden could not be verified, the Democratic Party (DP) does not let it go.
Yoon must find a breakthrough with his rhetoric before sincerely seeking cooperation from the DP. Anger can be tamed by pleas and empathy. Former U.S. President Ronald Reagan used to discuss and refine his rhetoric with his aides before proposing a national agenda. President Yoon must understand that an impromptu monologue or offhanded text messaging can trigger a political conflict in this country.
14. North Korea's Hwasong-12 IRBM Launch over Japan: Why It Matters
There are few who know as much about north Korean missiles as Dr. Bruce Bechtol.
Excerpts:
Of note, the Hwasong-12 uses an engine that has 80 tons of thrust at sea level. The United States sanctioned Iran in 2016 for its work with the North Koreans to acquire a rocket engine with 80 tons of thrust. Given the evidence that has come to light since 2017, it thus now appears that North Korea in fact sold the Hwasong-12 (or a variant of it) to the Iranians, and in fact, the deal was going on since at least 2013. Since this missile has proven effective and dependable for the most part, it is now a reasonable assessment to assume Iran is also close to having an operational missile that looks very much like the Hwasong-12 (because it is). With a range of 4,500 kilometers, Iran could hit NATO headquarters in Europe. The Hwasong-14 is a nuclear-capable missile, meaning once Iran brings its systems online it would exacerbate any threat they could pose if their nuclear military weaponization program becomes operational. We must never forget, if you see it in North Korea today, you will see it in Iran tomorrow.
The missile test conducted this week may seem simple, yet it is tied to upgrading and maintaining North Korea’s long-range missile capabilities, and continues to show North Korea’s best proliferation customer (Iran) that the missile is dependable. Indeed, in addition to these important things, North Korea was able to create a reaction in Japan and in the ROK-US alliance, and perhaps even give itself a great preamble for what looks like an imminent nuclear test in the near future. The provocative behavior continues.
North Korea's Hwasong-12 IRBM Launch over Japan: Why It Matters
19fortyfive.com · by Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. · October 5, 2022
North Korea recently conducted another test launch of their now well-documented system which they call the Hwasong-12. The missile was launched to the east and covered a route that took it over Japan. The missile also reportedly successfully flew approximately 4,500 kilometers before falling harmlessly into the Pacific Ocean – showing a successful launch of this system that the North Koreans reportedly now have operational and that was first test-launched (successfully) on May 13, 2017.
Why the Hwasong-12 IRBM Matters
There are several important things about the launch to take note of. First of all, the Hwasong-12 uses the RD-250 (or variant) engine. The RD-250 engine is manufactured in Ukraine. It appears that the RD-250 engine was either stolen, sold by corrupt officials, or acquired from Ukraine in a deal several years ago. The Ukrainian government denies that there was any acquisition deal between their government and Pyongyang. Secondly, the RD-250 engine is also the basis for the first stage of both the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 ICBM systems – making it a vital component of both North Korea’s IRBM and ICBM programs. Analysis of Pyongyang’s activities with the Hwasong-14 suggests that this system is now being manufactured (in whole) in North Korea. The missile appears to be reliable since most tests have been successful.
It is also important to note that unlike most of North Korea’s long-range ballistic missile tests in recent years, Pyongyang tested this missile to what was close to its maximum effective range. In the recent past, most long-range ballistic missile tests were conducted by launching this missile on what looked like almost a straight shot into the air. This allowed for analysis assessing what the range of the missile would be if it was launched on an angle such as it would use in wartime but still left questions. There were no questions this time. Most analysts worldwide have assessed since 2017 that the Hwasong-12 system has a range of approximately 4,500 kilometers and that is exactly (or close to it) how far the missile flew.
The North Koreans launched the missile on a route that took it directly over Japan. Pyongyang did this knowing that this would cause an uproar. Nevertheless, the decision was made to launch it on this route, showing diplomatic and military repercussions at this time are almost meaningless to the North Koreans, who are likely instead pushing the ROK-US alliance, and the Japanese into what they hope will be concessions – the most important of which would be the easing of sanctions, something that did not happen during the Trump administration and has not happened thus far in the Biden administration.
Of note, the Hwasong-12 uses an engine that has 80 tons of thrust at sea level. The United States sanctioned Iran in 2016 for its work with the North Koreans to acquire a rocket engine with 80 tons of thrust. Given the evidence that has come to light since 2017, it thus now appears that North Korea in fact sold the Hwasong-12 (or a variant of it) to the Iranians, and in fact, the deal was going on since at least 2013. Since this missile has proven effective and dependable for the most part, it is now a reasonable assessment to assume Iran is also close to having an operational missile that looks very much like the Hwasong-12 (because it is). With a range of 4,500 kilometers, Iran could hit NATO headquarters in Europe. The Hwasong-14 is a nuclear-capable missile, meaning once Iran brings its systems online it would exacerbate any threat they could pose if their nuclear military weaponization program becomes operational. We must never forget, if you see it in North Korea today, you will see it in Iran tomorrow.
The missile test conducted this week may seem simple, yet it is tied to upgrading and maintaining North Korea’s long-range missile capabilities, and continues to show North Korea’s best proliferation customer (Iran) that the missile is dependable. Indeed, in addition to these important things, North Korea was able to create a reaction in Japan and in the ROK-US alliance, and perhaps even give itself a great preamble for what looks like an imminent nuclear test in the near future. The provocative behavior continues.
Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr. (Ph.D. Union Institute), is an award-winning professor of political science at Angelo State University and a retired Marine. He was formerly on the faculty at the Marine Corps Command and Staff College (2005–2010) and the Air Command and Staff College (2003–2005).
19fortyfive.com · by Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. · October 5, 2022
15. South Korea faces growing calls to acquire nuclear weapons
Lots of discussion about this over the two weeks I just spent in Seoul.
South Korea faces growing calls to acquire nuclear weapons
The Korea Times · by 2022-10-05 13:12 | Defense · October 5, 2022
An F-15K fires two joint direct attack munition (JDAM) bombs against a virtual target at the Jikdo shooting field in the West Sea, Tuesday. Courtesy of Joint Chiefs of Staff
Growing threat from North Korea, Ukraine war makes some South Koreans rethink nuclear-free policy
By Kang Seung-woo
South Korea is facing growing calls to acquire nuclear weapons irrespective of ideological dogma. Such calls are being fueled by North Korea's growing nuclear menace and misgivings about the U.S.' extended deterrence if Pyongyang decides to attack its southern neighbor.
"There has been a nuclear taboo ― a normative inhibition against the first use of nuclear weapons ― but Russia is about to break it in its war against Ukraine, thereby stoking concerns among countries, (including South Korea) that do not have their own nuclear weapons," said Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
Go added that, despite Russia's threat to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the United States and NATO were poised to respond to it with conventional weapons, with many South Koreans fearful of Washington's possible half-hearted response to North Korea's potential nuclear attack against the South.
Cheong Seong-chang, the director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, also said that the growing interest in the development of a domestic nuclear weapons program comes as the U.S.' steadfast nuclear retaliation, in the case of North Korea using nuclear weapons against South Korea, appears uncertain.
"Even though the allies held an Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) meeting in September, for the first time in nearly five years, they failed to reach an agreement on the U.S.' immediate and automatic retaliation in response to a North Korean nuclear attack against the South," Cheong said.
The EDSCG, a high-level consultative mechanism to achieve North Korean denuclearization through steadfast deterrence, was held in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 16, but its joint statement merely stipulated that North Korea would face an "overwhelming and decisive" response in the event of a nuclear attack.
"North Korea has made significant progress in the development of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, so it seems that our trust in the U.S. nuclear umbrella, aimed at ensuring deterrence against nuclear threats, has been eroded," Cheong said.
According to a recent poll by the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University, more than half of South Koreans, or 55.5 percent, supported the development of a domestic nuclear weapons program, with 92.5 percent of 1,200 respondents believing that North Korea will not abandon its nuclear program.
In that respect, calls for an independent nuclear arsenal have been reignited amid an accelerated buildup of North Korea's nuclear weapons.
"Ukraine was the world's third-largest nuclear power, but it disarmed its nuclear weapons following security assurances from the U.S., Britain and Russia and as a result, Ukraine is now facing Russia's nuclear attack," Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo said on Facebook, Wednesday,
An Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missile is fired during a joint military drill between South Korea and the United States at an undisclosed location in South Korea, Wednesday. Courtesy of Joint Chiefs of Staff
In 2017, Hong, who was the leader of the Liberty Korea Party, the predecessor of the current ruling People Power Party, claimed that South Korea should acquire nuclear weapons if it is to negotiate with North Korea on an equal footing.
"Amid the U.S. and British struggle to effectively deal with Russia's nuclear aggression, if North Korea uses nuclear weapons against us, while declaring its attacks against the U.S. and Japan, could they retaliate against the North with nuclear arsenals?" Hong added.
He added, "It is time for a full review of our nuclear strategy against North Korea's nuclear weapons."
Former Korea Foundation President Lee Geun, a professor at Seoul National University's Graduate School of International Studies, recently presented a similar view.
"Now, we need to acknowledge the irreversibility of North Korea's nuclear weapons policy and think about our nuclear power strategy in preparation for this," he said on Facebook.
Referring to President Yoon Suk-yeol's remarks in his speech marking Armed Forces Day, Saturday, that North Korea's nuclear weapons development defies the international nonproliferation treaty, Lee also said, "Such a political statement sounds unrealistic and is just empty rhetoric."
Until now, any mention of acquiring nuclear weapons has been considered taboo within the South Korean government, given that it would result in significant costs while bringing about limited benefits for the country.
Go said developing a South Korean nuclear weapons program would result in an "invisible" high opportunity cost beyond punitive measures meted out by the international community.
"Many believe that South Korea's acquisition of nuclear weapons could lead to the international community placing sanctions on the nation, but as we witnessed in India's case, it would barely impose any punitive measures on us in consideration of the country's role and status in the international community," he said.
"Rather, the move would undermine South Korea's alliance with the U.S., because the alliance is based on Washington's provision of its nuclear umbrella in a way, but South Korea's development of independent nuclear weapons could break up the alliance and that is why we have yet to be enthusiastic about acquiring nuclear weapons."
Go added, "What would China prefer, between a nuclear-armed South Korea and a South Korea without its alliance with the U.S., given that Beijing is already surrounded by countries with nuclear weapons?"
In that sense, Go believes that the reintroduction of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula is a better option. The U.S. removed tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991.
"The return of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons will ensure a stable South Korea-U.S. alliance, while strengthening their response to North Korea's nuclear threats," he said.
In a new development, South Korea and the U.S. fired four surface-to-surface missiles into the East Sea on Wednesday morning in response to North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) launch.
The two sides each launched two Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles, which precisely hit mock targets and demonstrated the allies' deterrence capability, according to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).
Meanwhile, the South Korean military fired one Hyunmoo-2 ballistic missile, but it fell inside the base where it was launched after an abnormal flight.
The Korea Times · by 2022-10-05 13:12 | Defense · October 5, 2022
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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