|
The Turnaround Tuesday action from yesterday did not follow into today's trade with the exception of March wheat which made a small, late-session move to the green. A lack of new news allowed the sellers to return to the market for corn and soybeans today. Some traders are trying to find a better story to try and explain today's lower prices, but the bottom line is that the commodity funds are the story they continue to sell and force prices lower. Ethanol data that is typically released on Wednesday will be released tomorrow due to the President's day holiday on Monday.
Check out the graphs below from our friends at StoneX. Although prices are now below where we were in 2021-2023, we are still above where we were Pre-Covid. Admittedly, cost of production has risen, which leads grain marketing to have even greater importance. Do you still have old crop to sell? Are there dates that you need to have some crop sold by? Feel free to call Floyd or myself to talk about marketing plans!
Saturday will market the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and we appear to be no closer to resolving the conflict. China is vested in Russia not losing the war, and the West is vested in Ukraine not losing. But nobody seems committed to winning the war. From a commodities point of view, the Black Sea remains a major exporter of food and energy commodities. They were initially shut down, resulting in a surge in global food prices, before the Black Sea Grain Initiative allowed controlled shipments of grain out of Ukraine ports. They shut down again when Russia withdrew from the initiative last summer, but Ukraine found another way to export, bringing shipments back to nearly pre-war levels. Thus far, both sides have largely avoided direct attacks on civilian ships transporting energy and/or food grain export shipments. The odds of such are still considered relatively low, as neither side wants to be seen by the world community as that nation that would attack the world’s private food and energy supply. However, the risk of such also continues to slowly creep higher as each side becomes increasingly frustrated with the lingering war.
Commodity Weather Group's mid-day forecasts ran wetter for both Argentina and Brazil during the 6-10 day time frame. The company did note in a blog post that rains will need to persist through April to avoid safrinha corn production losses.
Funds were thought to have been sellers for corn and soybeans today.
Register for our Winter Grower Meeting Here. Come on out to hear from speakers representing StoneX, Pride, BASF and more!
| 
