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In This Issue:
- Market Update: U.S. Rice Market - Every Year is Different
- USRPA Makes Annual Washington Visit
- Washington, D.C. Update
- Remembering Bob Papanos: 1944-2024
- Take Advantage of Early Bird Pricing for RMTC 2024
- Texas Rice Roundup is Tomorrow Night
- Photo from Rice Country
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Market Update: U.S. Rice Market - Every Year is Different | |
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It was a newsworthy week for the global rice markets, headlined and perhaps punctuated in the U.S. by the realization that the current pace of exports would indicate we’ll actually run out of long grain rice before harvest! Now history has taught us that “running out of rice” is highly unlikely, but if the current pace of exports holds steady for the balance of the year, projections would put us at 97.4 million cwt, where USDA projected exports sit at 61 million cwt. We expect to find ourselves somewhere in the middle, as we can’t sell what we don’t have. The U.S. industry will likely find itself with scarce supplies come harvest, much like our counterparts in South America are right now. Our outpaced exports are largely on account of short supply in the Mercosur countries and a large U.S. crop compared to previous years. Strong domestic market demand, milled rice exports to Haiti and Iraq, and an overall lower milling yield situation for long grain have contributed to an anticipated scarce supply.
While it was expected that the USDA would lower carryover stocks by raising exports (by 2 million cwt), the increase of imports by 1 million cwt to an already record 42 million cwt was unexpected. Apparently the USDA is taking the approach that the U.S. will continue to import rice to replace exports, keeping the carryover somewhat under control.
Last week we mentioned this report would hold a deeper discussion surrounding planting intentions this year. While it’s too soon to set any concrete expectations, news from China on a large soybean crop is sending signals to U.S. producers that rice will be the crop of choice in 2024. If that happens, it is likely that we will see an acreage increase above this year in all states (except maybe Texas given water availability). Last year, the USDA showed total U.S. rice planted at 2.894 million acres. This year, it is likely that production will meet or exceed 3 million acres of rice sewn, pending any other large announcements from China. The largest gains are likely to come from Mississippi and Arkansas. This bodes well for healthy production and a more consistent supply for U.S. exporters.
The most recent USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade report has an excellent piece on Western Hemisphere rice trade, and more specifically, paddy exports in the region. The Western Hemisphere accounts for just under 13% of global imports, and about one-third of those imports are paddy. Up through 2021, the U.S. has consistently held well over 50% of total paddy exports, but last year’s short crop and inflationary protection policies to our primary export partners dropped our share down to about 40%. We are already seeing a resurgence in the 2023 numbers up to the 50% range and looking to move higher once again. Rice production for 2023/24 is projected at 36% higher than the previous year, while paddy exports are forecast at 82% higher. This lends credibility to the opening statement that unless export pace slows, the U.S. will run out of rice.
In Asia, the significant news is the fulfillment of a large Indonesian tender that was filled largely by Vietnamese suppliers. Thailand was left out in the cold with an ensuing price drop in an attempt to be competitive. Thailand has been leading the charge with high prices, last week recording as high as $660 pmt, but after this week and not being awarded any business to Indonesia, prices have fallen to as low as $625 pmt. Vietnam has held steady in the $640 pmt range, as India remains absent from the open market.
The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 110,600 MT this week, up noticeably from the previous week and up 89% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Nicaragua (25,000 MT), Canada (20,300 MT), Japan (17,200 MT), Honduras (15,000 MT), and El Salvador (14,800 MT), were offset by reductions for Venezuela (1,100 MT). Exports of 77,700 MT were up 24% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average.
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USRPA Makes Annual Washington Visit | |
USRPA board members with FAS Administrator Daniel Whitley | |
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This week, USRPA board members and representatives from Texas, Missouri, Louisiana, and California flew to Washington, D.C., to discuss issues impacting rice farmers. USRPA met with officials at the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Agriculture, and the Office of the US Trade Representative, as well as House and Senate offices for Louisiana, Missouri, California, Texas, and Arkansas. USRPA discussed a variety of issues with these offices, including its farm bill priorities, trade policy, and conservation policy.
FECARROZ joined USRPA in D.C., holding their board meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both boards met for a celebratory dinner to close out the week.
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Louisiana board members Dustin Watkins and Mark Pousson and Cornerstone Government Affairs' Fred Clark with Louisiana Congresswoman Julia Letlow. | |
Chairman Neal Stoesser and his wife, Meredith, Gayla Rose (2023 USRPA scholarship recipient), and Texas Rice Council President Tommy Turner met with Texas Senator Ted Cruz. | |
Missouri board members Alex Clark, Justin Wheeler, Mitchell Thomas, and USRPA COO Mollie Buckler met with Missouri Senator Eric Schmitt. | |
Meeting with California Congressman Doug LaMalfa, who is a rice farmer and was part of the creation of USRPA. | |
FAS Marketing Specialist Curtis McCoy joined FECARROZ to educate the group on how FAS supports USRPA's international promotion efforts. | |
A toast from USRPA Chairman Neal Stoesser, thanking FECARROZ for their partnership with USRPA over the last two decades. | |
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Congressman Jason Smith calls for investigation into competition in the global rice market
On Monday, Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee Jason Smith (R-MO) sent a letter to the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) Chairman David Johanson calling for an investigation into the competitiveness of global rice markets.
The USITC analyzed the market and produced a report in 2015, but Congressman Smith requested the Commission update this report to include information from 2018-2023. This includes information on developments in the rice industry in the U.S. as well as in major export markets, policy changes in the U.S. and other rice-producing countries, and relative strengths and weaknesses of U.S. rice production and exports compared to other rice-producing countries.
A copy of the letter can be found here.
House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on trade issues
On Wednesday, the House Ways and Means Committee Trade Subcommittee held a hearing on American trade interests ahead of the World Trade Organization’s Ministerial Conference later this month. During the hearing, a rice miller testified on how policies in other countries like India are impacting the domestic rice industry. He called for strengthening enforcement mechanisms to better protect rice farmers and other agricultural producers. A recording of the hearing can be found here.
USDA releases 2024 farm income forecast
On Wednesday, USDA released its projections for farm income for 2024. Overall, USDA is forecasting that income will continue to decrease in 2024; however, cash receipts for rice are expected to increase by $400 million, or 13.1%. In addition, USDA expects that direct payments to producers through ARC and PLC will decrease while the cost of production—including labor and fertilizer—will increase. More information on the farm income forecast can be found here.
| Remembering Bob Papanos: 1944-2024 | |
Take Advantage of RMTC Early Bird Pricing! | |
Texas Rice Roundup is Tomorrow Night | |
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Visit the event page to preview our silent and live auction items.
More items will be added before the event!
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Food & Agriculture
Regulatory & Policy Roundup
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Grain:
World Markets & Trade
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World Agricultural Production
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InterRice Monthly Report no. 239 | | |
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Argentina: Grain & Feed Update
Rice production in MY 2023/2024 is projected at 1.1 million tons rough base, significantly lower than USDA official due to smaller harvested area and lower yields.
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South Korea: Grain & Feed Update
In the final month of 2023, Korea finally completed allocating its country specific quota (CSQ) for rice imports totaling 408,000 MT (milled basis) under its 2023 tariff rate quota (TRQ) scheme. However, with most tenders fulfilled in the second half of calendar year (CY) 2023, deliveries will take place in CY 2024 instead of marketing year (MY) 2022/23.
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February 13, 2024
University of Missouri Rice Meeting
Dexter, MO
More Information
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February 27, 2024
Missouri Rice Council Annual Meeting & 40th Anniversary Celebration
Poplar Bluff, MO
More Information
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June 4 - 6, 2024
Rice Market & Technology Convention
Cancun, Mexico
Registration
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USRPA does not discriminate in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, or marital/family status. Persons who require alternative means for communication of information (such as Braille, large print, sign language interpreter or translation) should contact USRPA at 713-974-7423. |
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