Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"The way to get things done is not to mind who gets the credit of doing them."

- Benjamin Jowett

"Imagination is more important than knowledge."

- Albert Einstein

“When war breaks out, people say; ‘it won't last, it's too stupid.’ And war is certainly too stupid, but that doesn't prevent it from lasting.”

- Albert Camus

1. The UN secretary-general invoked 'Article 99' to push for a Gaza cease-fire. What exactly is it?

2. Ospreys had history of safety issues long before they were grounded

3. Ivy League presidents reckon with swift backlash to remarks on campus antisemitism

4. What books are US Army, congressmen reading?

5. Russia tricks US actors into appearing in propaganda videos

6. Chinese fighters, balloon cross Taiwan Strait a month before election

7. Palestinian Authority Working With US on Gaza Plan

8. US, Ukraine Officials Privately Say Counteroffensive Against Russia Has ‘Failed’ (Exclusive)

9. The CIA Sure Looks Busy

10. US Deals with Allies Signal Concerns Over China's Disinformation Campaign

11. Army employee charged with stealing $100 million from fund for military children

12. The NYT is wrong about Israeli intelligence

13. A Chinese Pearl Harbor-style attack could end America’s days as a superpower

14. Funding on ‘fumes:’ The Pentagon is nearly out of money to replace weapons sent to Ukraine

15. Congress Tells Army to Set Higher Fitness Standards for Combat Arms Soldiers

16. Large-Scale Combat Operations Will Bring New Medical Ethics Challenges

17. The Army-Navy Game example: A bitter rivalry and a common cause

18. Petraeus says Israel should try U.S.-style counterinsurgency in Gaza

19. The new world disorder by Robert D. Kaplan

20. Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power (book review)

1. The UN secretary-general invoked 'Article 99' to push for a Gaza cease-fire. What exactly is it?

The UN secretary-general invoked 'Article 99' to push for a Gaza cease-fire. What exactly is it?

BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Updated 9:52 PM EST, December 7, 2023

AP · December 8, 2023

It’s called “Article 99.” And it hasn’t been used for decades. Until this week.

With an intensifying Israeli offensive and escalating civilian casualties, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres invoked a rarely exercised power this week to warn the Security Council of an impending “humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza. He urged members to demand an immediate humanitarian cease-fire.

Guterres invoked Article 99 of the U.N. Charter — last used over half a century ago — which says the secretary-general may inform the council of matters he believes threaten international peace and security.

Here, Edith M. Lederer, longtime chief U.N. correspondent for The Associated Press, breaks down what this could mean.

WHAT IS ARTICLE 99 AND WHY IS GUTERRES INVOKING IT?

It’s a provision of the United Nations Charter, the U.N. constitution. It states that the secretary-general — the U.N.'s top diplomat — may bring to the attention of the Security Council “any matter which, in his opinion, may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security.”

This gives an important additional power to the secretary-general, since the real power at the U.N. is held by its 193 member nations and especially the 15 countries that serve on the Security Council.

Article 99 is extremely rarely used. The last time it was invoked was during fighting in 1971 that led to the creation of Bangladesh and its separation from Pakistan.

Guterres invoked Article 99 because he sees the situation in Gaza at risk of a “complete collapse” of the territory’s humanitarian system and civil order. It was something he felt needed to be done.

HOW LIKELY IS THIS TO HAVE AN EFFECT, GIVEN THE U.S. VETO POWER?

Arab and Islamic nations followed up on Guterres’s letter immediately.

The United Arab Emirates, the Arab representative on the Security Council, circulated a short resolution to Security Council members late Wednesday calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. They plan to put that resolution to a vote at a Security Council meeting on Friday morning.

The United States, which is Israel’s closest ally and has veto power on resolutions, has not supported a cease-fire. On Tuesday, U.S. Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood said that the role of the Security Council in the Israel-Gaza war is not to get in the way of important diplomacy that’s taking place. And he said the Security Council resolution at this time “would not be useful.”

This could signal a likely veto, but the U.S. has not said either way.

IN THAT CASE, WHY INVOKE IT?

Because Guterres believes that the humanitarian system and the humanitarian operations in Gaza are collapsing.

He also warns in his letter that in the current situation, “amid constant bombardment by the Israeli Defense Forces and without shelter or essentials to survive, I expect public order to completely break down soon due to the desperate conditions, rendering even limited humanitarian assistance impossible.”

Guterres said the situation could get even worse, pointing to possible epidemics and the mass displacement of Palestinians into neighboring countries. He sees a looming disaster.

Previous secretaries-general have brought threats that they saw to international peace and security to the Security Council without mentioning Article 99. This includes Congo in 1960, the U.S. hostage crisis in Iran that began in November 1979, the Iran-Iraq war in 1980 and more recently Myanmar in 2017.

We don’t know why they didn’t invoke Article 99, and several of the previous secretaries-general are now dead. Guterres has been very outspoken on both the Hamas attacks on Israel and the very high death toll of Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

AP · December 8, 2023

2. Ospreys had history of safety issues long before they were grounded

Ospreys had history of safety issues long before they were grounded

militarytimes.com · by Tara Copp · December 7, 2023

When the U.S. military took the extraordinary step of grounding its entire fleet of V-22 Ospreys this week, it wasn’t reacting just to the recent deadly crash of the aircraft off the coast of Japan. The aircraft has had a long list of problems in its short history.

The Osprey takes off and lands like a helicopter but can tilt its propellers horizontally to fly like an airplane. That unique and complex design has allowed the Osprey to speed troops to the battlefield. The U.S. Marine Corps, which operates the vast majority of the hundreds of Ospreys in service, calls it a “game-changing assault support platform.”

But on Wednesday, the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps grounded all Ospreys after a preliminary investigation of last week’s crash indicated that a materiel failure — that something went wrong with the aircraft — led to the deaths of all eight Air Force Special Operations Command airmen on board.

And it’s not the first time. There have been persistent questions about a mechanical problem with the clutch that has troubled the program for more than a decade. There also have been questions as to whether all parts of the Osprey have been manufactured according to safety specifications and, as those parts age, whether they remain strong enough to withstand the significant forces created by the Osprey’s unique structure and dynamics of tiltrotor flight.

The government of Japan, which is the only international partner flying the Osprey, had already grounded its aircraft after the Nov. 29 crash.

“It’s good they grounded the fleet,” said Rex Rivolo, a retired Air Force pilot who analyzed the Osprey for the Pentagon’s test and evaluation office from 1992 to 2007 as an analyst at the Institute for Defense Analyses, and who previously warned military officials that the aircraft wasn’t safe. “At this point, they had no choice.”

The Osprey has become a workhorse for the Marine Corps and Air Force Special Operations Command and was in the process of being adopted by the Navy to replace its C-2 Greyhound propeller planes, which transport personnel on and off at-sea aircraft carriers.

Marine Corps Ospreys also have been used to transport White House staff, press and security personnel accompanying the president. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said they also are subject to the standdown.

While the Ospreys are grounded, Air Force Special Operations Command said it will work to mitigate the impact to operations, training and readiness. The command will continue to fly other aircraft and Osprey crews will continue to train on simulators, spokeswoman Lt. Col. Becky Heyse said.

It was not immediately clear how the other services will adapt their missions.

Questions about the clutch

The first Ospreys only became operational in 2007 after decades of testing. But more than 50 troops have died either flight testing the Osprey or conducting training flights over the program’s lifespan, including 20 deaths in four crashes over the past 20 months.

In July, the Marine Corps for the first time blamed one of the fatal Osprey crashes on a fleet-wide problem that has been known for years but for which there’s still no good fix. It’s known as hard clutch engagement, or HCE.

The Osprey’s two engines are linked by an interconnected drive shaft that runs inside the length of the wings. On each tip, by the engines, a component called a sprag clutch transfers torque, or power, from one proprotor to the other to make sure both rotors are spinning at the same speed. That keeps the Osprey’s flight in balance. If one of the two engines fails, the sprag clutch is also a safety feature: It will transfer power from the working side to the failing engine’s side to keep both rotors going.

But sprag clutches have also become a worrying element. As the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps began looking at HCE events following incidents in 2022, they determined that the clutches may be wearing out faster than anticipated.

Since 2010, Osprey clutches have slipped at least 15 times. As the system re-engages, hard clutch engagement occurs. In just fractions of a second, an HCE event creates a power spike that surges power to the other engine, which can throw the Osprey into an uncontrolled roll or slide. A power spike can also destroy a sprag clutch, essentially severing the interconnected drive shaft. That could result in the complete loss of aircraft control with little or no time for the pilots to react and save their Osprey or crew, Rivolo said.

In the 2022 crash of a Marine Corps MV-22 in California that killed five Marines, hard clutch engagement created an “unrecoverable, catastrophic mechanical failure,” the investigation found. The fire was so intense it destroyed the Osprey’s flight data recorder — another issue the Marines have pushed to fix, by requiring new flight data recorders to be better able to survive a crash.

Ospreys have been grounded before

After Air Force Special Operations Command experienced two hard clutch engagement incidents within six weeks in 2022, the commander, Lt. Gen. James Slife, grounded all of its Ospreys for two weeks. An undisclosed number of Ospreys across the military were grounded again in February 2023 as work began on clutch replacements.

But getting replacements to all the aircraft at the time depended on their availability, Slife said in 2022.

And even that replacement may not be the fix. Neither the services nor defense contractors Bell Textron or Boeing, which jointly produce the Osprey, have found a root cause. The clutch “may be the manifestation of the problem,” but not the root cause, Slife said.

In last week’s crash, Japanese media outlet NHK reported that an eyewitness saw the Osprey inverted with an engine on fire before it went down in the sea. If eyewitness accounts are correct, Rivolo said, clutch failure and a catastrophic failure of the interconnected drive shaft should be investigated as a potential cause.

After its investigation of the 2022 crash, the Marine Corps made several recommendations, including designing a new quill assembly, which is a component that mitigates clutch slippage and hard clutch engagement, and requiring that all drivetrain component materiel be strengthened.

That work is ongoing, according to the V-22 Joint Program Office, which is responsible for the development and production of the aircraft. A new quill assembly design is being finalized and testing of a prototype should begin early next year, it said.

When asked what inspections the JPO will conduct on the fleet while they are grounded, the office told Military Times that’s still unknown.

“The mishap investigation will ensure a thorough look into the casual factors, which will help identify recommendations to address any issues uncovered,” Marcia Hart, a spokesperson for Naval Air Systems Command, said Thursday.

Whistleblower questions

Materiel strength was the subject of a whistleblower lawsuit that Boeing settled with the Justice Department in September for $8.1 million. Two former Boeing V-22 composites fabricators had come forward with allegations that Boeing was falsifying records certifying that it had performed the testing necessary to ensure it maintained uniform temperatures required to ensure the Osprey’s composite parts were strengthened according to DOD specifications.

A certain temperature was needed for uniform molecular bonding of the composite surface. Without that bond, “the components will contain resin voids, linear porosity, and other defects that are not visible to the eye; which compromise the strength and other characteristics of the material, and which can cause catastrophic structural failures,” the lawsuit alleged.

In its settlement, the Justice Department contended Boeing did not meet the Pentagon’s manufacturing standards from 2007 to 2018; the whistleblowers contended in their lawsuit that this affected more than 80 Ospreys that were delivered in that time frame.

In a statement to The Associated Press, Boeing said it entered into the settlement agreement with the Justice Department and Navy “to resolve certain False Claims Act allegations, without admission of liability.”

Boeing said while composites are used throughout the V-22, the parts that were questioned in the lawsuit were “all non-critical parts that do not implicate flight safety.”

“Boeing is in compliance with its curing processes for composite parts,” the company said. “Additionally, we would stress that the cause of the accident in Japan is currently unknown. We are standing by to provide any requested support.”

Ongoing fixes

The V-22 Joint Program Office said that since the 2022 incidents, significant progress has been made toward identifying the cause of the hard clutch engagement.

“While the definitive root cause has not yet been determined, the joint government and industry team has narrowed down the scope of the investigation to a leading theory,” it said in a statement to the AP. “The leading theory involves a partial engagement of some clutches which have been installed for a lengthy period of time. This has not yet been definitively proven, but the data acquired thus far support this theory.”

Bell assembles the Osprey in a partnership with Boeing in its facilities in Amarillo, Texas. Bell would not comment on last week’s crash, but said it works with the services when an accident occurs. “The level of support is determined by the service branch safety center in charge of the investigation,” Bell spokesman Jay Hernandez said.

In its report on the fatal 2022 crash, the Marine Corps forewarned that more accidents were possible because neither the military nor manufacturers have been able to isolate a root cause. It said future incidents were “impossible to prevent without improvements to flight control system software, drivetrain component material strength, and robust inspection requirements.”

Air Force Times Editor Rachel S. Cohen contributed to this story.

About Tara Copp, AP

Tara Copp is a Pentagon correspondent for the Associated Press. She was previously Pentagon bureau chief for Sightline Media Group.

3. Ivy League presidents reckon with swift backlash to remarks on campus antisemitism

Ivy League presidents reckon with swift backlash to remarks on campus antisemitism

AP · by COLLIN BINKLEY · December 7, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — Facing heavy criticism, the University of Pennsylvania’s president walked back some of her remarks given earlier this week at a congressional hearing on campus antisemitism, saying she should have gone further to condemn hate against Jewish students.

Penn President Liz Magill was grilled during a five-hour hearing Tuesday, along with Harvard President Claudine Gay and MIT President Sally Kornbluth, on how their institutions had responded to instances of antisemitism on campuses. Their carefully worded responses faced swift backlash from Republican and some Democratic lawmakers as well as the White House.

Much of the blowback centered on a heated line of questioning from Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., who repeatedly asked whether “calling for the genocide of Jews” would violate each university’s code of conduct.

Magill said that whether hate speech crossed the line into violating Penn’s policies depended on context.

“If the speech turns into conduct, it can be harassment,” Magill said.

Gay responded to the question in a similar manner, saying that when “speech crosses into conduct, that violates our policies.” Kornbluth responded that she had not heard calling for the genocide of Jews on MIT’s campus, and that speech “targeted at individuals, not making public statements,” would be considered harassment.

Magill expanded on her answer on Wednesday, saying a call for the genocide of Jewish people would be considered harassment or intimidation.

“I was not focused on, but I should have been, the irrefutable fact that a call for genocide of Jewish people is a call for some of the most terrible violence human beings can perpetrate,” Magill said in a video statement released by the university. “It’s evil, plain and simple.”

Magill called for a review of Penn’s policies, which she said have long been guided by the U.S. Constitution but need to be “clarified and evaluated” as hate spreads across campus and around the world “in a way not seen in years.”

In a statement posted Wednesday by Harvard on X, formerly Twitter, Gay condemned calls for violence against Jewish students.

“Let me be clear: Calls for violence or genocide against the Jewish community, or any religious or ethnic group are vile, they have no place at Harvard, and those who threaten our Jewish students will be held to account,” Gay wrote Wednesday.

White House spokesman Andrew Bates issued a statement Wednesday criticizing Gay, Magill and Kornbluth’s responses for not going far enough to condemn antisemitism on campuses.

“It’s unbelievable that this needs to be said: calls for genocide are monstrous and antithetical to everything we represent as a country,” he said. “Any statements that advocate for the systematic murder of Jews are dangerous and revolting — and we should all stand firmly against them, on the side of human dignity and the most basic values that unite us as Americans.”

The Republican-led House Education and Workforce Committee said Thursday that it will take “additional action” to hold Harvard, MIT and Penn accountable. The panel said it will review the schools’ policies and disciplinary records and examine “their seemingly deplorable record.”

Free speech experts say the college presidents’ answers, while uncomfortable, did follow current interpretations of the First Amendment. Any call for genocide would deserve condemnation but “is not speech that could be banned or punished by the state,” according to the nonprofit PEN America.

“The First Amendment’s protections for speech extend even to deeply hateful speech, unless it constitutes a true threat, incitement to imminent violence, or harassment, which is legally defined as requiring severity and pervasiveness,” said Suzanne Nossel, the group’s CEO.

Even prior to the hearing Tuesday before the House committee, Stefanik has called for Gay’s resignation in response to events that have occurred on campus since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. On Wednesday, she told Fox News that all three presidents needed to be removed from their leadership positions, calling their answers “pathetic.”

“They don’t deserve the dignity of resigning,” she said. “They need to be fired.”

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, told reporters on Wednesday that Magill’s response was “an unacceptable statement.”

“I’ve said many times, leaders have a responsibility to speak and act with moral clarity. And Liz Magill failed to meet that simple test,” he said. “I think whether you’re talking about genocide against Jews, genocide against people of color, genocide against LGBTQ folks, it’s all in the wrong. And it needs to be called out. And it shouldn’t be hard. And there should be no nuance to that. She needed to give a one-word answer. ”

Shapiro also said it was time for the university’s board to make a “serious decision” about Magill’s leadership at the school.

___

The Associated Press education team receives support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

COLLIN BINKLEY

Collin is a national education reporter

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AP · by COLLIN BINKLEY · December 7, 2023

4. What books are US Army, congressmen reading?

What books are US Army, congressmen reading?

Defense News · by Staff · December 7, 2023

(Courtesy of Advantage Media Group)

Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., a member of the House Armed Services Committee, said he is reading “Vectors: Heroes, Villains, & Heartbreak on the Bridge of the U.S. Navy.” The book, by former acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly, offers insight into “idiosyncrasies that happened within the Pentagon and within the service branch,” Wittman said.

(Courtesy of Macmillan Publishers)

Doug Bush, assistant secretary of the U.S. Army for acquisition, logistics and technology, said he is reading “How Ike Led: The Principles Behind Eisenhower’s Biggest Decisions” by Susan Eisenhower. The granddaughter of the former president doesn’t just write about his decision-making process, but why he took certain actions in office.

(Courtesy of Oxford University Press)

Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., chairman of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, said he is reading Rush Dosie’s “The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order.” It examines what China wants, whether Beijing can achieve its goals, and how the U.S. could respond.

(Courtesy of Potomac Books)

He had also recently reread “This Kind of War: The Classic Korean War History,” written by T.R. Fehrenbachfor and touted as an account of the conflict written from the perspective of those who fought it.

(Courtesy of Scribner)

Gabe Camarillo, undersecretary of the U.S. Army, said he is reading “Why We Sleep: Unlocking the Power of Sleep and Dreams,” by Matthew Walker. The New York Times called it “a book on a mission,” adding that “Walker is in love with sleep and wants us to fall in love with sleep, too. And it is urgent.” Camarillo also said he is reading “Showtime: Magic, Kareem, Riley, and the Los Angeles Lakers Dynasty of the 1980s,” by Jeff Pearlman. Real-life characters include basketball players Earvin “Magic” Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar; basketball coach Pat Riley; and team owner Jerry Buss.

5. Russia tricks US actors into appearing in propaganda videos

Excerpts:

In one video recorded by Wood, known for playing Frodo Baggins in Lord of the Rings, the actor says: "I hope you get the help that you need. Lots of love, Vladimir, take care."

The Cameo videos were then modified to include emojis and logos of media outlets, and were then circulated on social media, sometimes through Russian government-owned or backed media outlets.

In one instance, the videos were reportedly discussed on a Russian prime-time political talk show.

Microsoft said it has spotted seven such videos since July 2023, featuring celebrities like Priscilla Presley, Breaking Bad actor Dean Norris, The US Office actress Kate Flannery and Scrubs star John C McGinley.

Cameo said that it will not publicly comment on any of its ongoing Trust and Safety investigations, but added that the use of its videos in Russian propaganda would be a violation of its community guidelines.

Russia tricks US actors into appearing in propaganda videos

BBC

By Nadine YousifBBC News

Getty Images

Lord of the Rings star Elijah Wood is one of the actors named in the report

Russia has tricked several US actors on the video message platform Cameo into spreading falsehoods about Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky.

The latest propaganda push was outlined in a Thursday report by Microsoft's Threat Analysis Center.

In the videos, celebrities like actor Elijah Wood appear to be sending a personal message to Mr Zelensky asking him to get help with substance use.

Cameo said those videos may violate its guidelines.

The platform, which gained massive popularity during the Covid-19 pandemic, allows users to request recorded messages from celebrities and other public figures in exchange for a fee.

Microsoft's report stated that the celebrities in the videos were likely asked by a Cameo user to send a message to someone named "Vladimir", pleading for him to seek help with alcoholism and drug use, unaware that their videos would be used in Russian propaganda.

Russia has long falsely claimed that Mr Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders are struggling with substance use, in a bid to win support for their ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

In one video recorded by Wood, known for playing Frodo Baggins in Lord of the Rings, the actor says: "I hope you get the help that you need. Lots of love, Vladimir, take care."

The Cameo videos were then modified to include emojis and logos of media outlets, and were then circulated on social media, sometimes through Russian government-owned or backed media outlets.

In one instance, the videos were reportedly discussed on a Russian prime-time political talk show.

Microsoft said it has spotted seven such videos since July 2023, featuring celebrities like Priscilla Presley, Breaking Bad actor Dean Norris, The US Office actress Kate Flannery and Scrubs star John C McGinley.

Cameo said that it will not publicly comment on any of its ongoing Trust and Safety investigations, but added that the use of its videos in Russian propaganda would be a violation of its community guidelines.

"In cases where such violations are substantiated Cameo will typically take steps to remove the problematic content and suspend the purchaser's account to help prevent further issues," a Cameo spokesperson said in a statement.

A spokesperson for Wood told media outlets that the actor was only answering a request through Cameo, and the video "was in no way intended to be addressed to Zelensky or have anything at all to do with Russia or Ukraine or the war".

Russia has been increasingly using different methods to spread falsehoods about the war in Ukraine on social media.

Most recently, a report by American technology magazine Wired found that images of celebrities like Taylor Swift and Kim Kardashian were put side-by-side with anti-Ukraine quotes, making it appear as though they said those things.

That disinformation campaign reached at least 7.6 million people on Facebook alone, Wired reported. Researchers have linked it to a Russian influence operation with previous ties to the Kremlin.

6. Chinese fighters, balloon cross Taiwan Strait a month before election

I wonder about the analysis behind these actions by the Chinese. How do they think they will influence the outcome of the election? What effects do the Chinese seek to achieve with these actions? And among which target audience(s)? Has China correctly assessed the target audience(s)?

Chinese fighters, balloon cross Taiwan Strait a month before election

Reuters · by Ben Blanchard

TAIPEI, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Taiwan said on Friday that 12 Chinese fighter jets and a suspected weather balloon had crossed the Taiwan Strait's sensitive median line, in a ratcheting up of tensions about a month before the island's presidential election.

Democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has complained for the past four years of regular Chinese military patrols and drills near the island.

Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary polls on Jan. 13 and campaigning has kicked into high gear with how the next government handles relations with China a major point of contention.

Taiwan's defence ministry, offering details of Chinese missions on Thursday night, said 12 fighter jets had crossed the median line, that once served as an unofficial barrier between the two sides but which Chinese planes now regularly fly over.

In an unusual addition to its statement, the ministry said that around midday on Thursday it had also detected a Chinese balloon 101 nautical miles (187 km) southwest of the northern Taiwanese city of Keelung, which travelled eastward for about an hour, crossing the strait before disappearing.

Taiwan Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng told reporters at parliament that their "initial understanding" was it was probably a weather balloon, but felt the ministry had an obligation to report this to be public.

"Otherwise, if after other units or other countries have reported it, everyone will wonder why (we) did not report it. The defence ministry requires all our subordinate units to have a grasp of the enemy situation," he added.

China's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

The potential for China to use of balloons for spying became a global issue in February when the United States shot down what it said was a Chinese surveillance balloon but which China said was a civilian craft that accidentally drifted astray.

Taiwan is on high alert for Chinese activities, both military and political, ahead of its election, especially what Taipei views as Beijing's efforts to interfere in the ballot to get electors to vote for candidates China may prefer.

Vice President Lai Ching-te and running mate Hsiao Bi-khim from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party are leading in the polls. China views then as separatists and has rebuffed Lai's offers of talks.

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on Friday that China's Taiwan Affairs Office was being "blatant" in its interference. It has called Lai and Hsiao an "independence double act".

"They are commenting in very negative language about Vice President Lai or the vice presidential candidate Bi-khim Hsiao. Those kinds of statements have already told the Taiwanese people that they want to interfere in Taiwan's election and they want to shape the results of the election," Wu said.

"They are doing all sorts of things to interfere in our election and we can expect more leading up to our polling date.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office did not respond to a request for comment on Friday about Taiwan's interference accusations. Previously it has said only that it respects Taiwan's "social systems".

It has, however, framed the election as a vote between war and peace, and urged Taiwan's people to carefully consider their choices.

Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Additional reporting by Faith Hung and Sarah Wu; Editing by Christopher Cushing and William Mallard

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Acquire Licensing Rights, opens new tab

Reuters · by Ben Blanchard

7. Palestinian Authority Working With US on Gaza Plan

Seems like anything that includes Hamas would be a non-starter for Israel. (and should be a non-starter for the US).

Palestinian Authority Working With US on Gaza Plan

Shtayyeh says in interview Hamas could join as junior partner
US-brokered proposals likely to be fiercely opposed by Israel
By Ethan Bronner and Fadwa Hodali
December 7, 2023 at 11:00 PM EST
Corrected December 8, 2023 at 7:06 AM EST

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-08/palestinian-authority-working-with-us-on-postwar-plan-for-gaza?cmpid=BBD120823_OUS&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=231208&utm_campaign=openamericas

The Palestinian Authority is working with US officials on a plan to run Gaza after the ongoing war is over, with one of its top leaders arguing that Israel’s aim to fully defeat Hamas is unrealistic and the militant group should instead join it under a new governing structure.

Speaking to Bloomberg in his West Bank office on Thursday, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said his preferred outcome of the conflict that started Oct. 7 would be for Hamas to become a junior partner under the broader Palestine Liberation Organization, helping to build a new independent state that includes the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem.

The Authority, which once ran Palestinian affairs in both the West Bank and Gaza, has been limited to the West Bank since 2007 when Hamas pushed it out. Hamas was formed in the late 1980s as a radical Islamist competitor to the PLO which was coming to terms with Israel’s existence. Hamas rejects Israel entirely, but Shtayyeh suggested that could change.

“Hamas before Oct. 7 is one thing and after is another thing,” said Shtayyeh, a 65-year-old economist who’s been running the Palestinian Authority under President Mahmoud Abbas since 2019. “If they are ready to come to an agreement and accept the political platform of the PLO, then there will be room for talk. Palestinians should not be divided.”

The Palestinian Leadership in the West Bank Offers Plan for Post-War Gaza

The proposal contradicts what Israel says it sees as the future for the impoverished enclave

Source: Bloomberg

Yet that proposal contradicts what Israel says it sees as the future of Gaza, an impoverished coastal strip of 2.2 million. The country’s military launched an air and ground campaign to destroy Hamas in the enclave after the group’s attack on Oct. 7, when some 1,200 people were killed and 240 taken hostage.

Israel says it won’t stop its campaign until Hamas is eradicated. It says no group based in Gaza should be able to threaten it again — and that means patrolling the territory for the foreseeable future.

US officials visited Abbas earlier this week to discuss a plan for the day after the war in Gaza, the Palestinian official said. Both sides agreed that Israel shouldn’t reoccupy Gaza, reduce its land for a buffer zone or drive Palestinians out. That suggests plenty of friction ahead.

“We’re not going to go there on an Israeli military plan,” Shtayyeh said. “Our people are there. We need to put together a mechanism, something we’re working on with the international community. There will be huge needs in terms of relief and reconstruction to remedy the wounds.”

Shtayyeh will fly to Qatar this weekend to ask Doha to switch its substantial financial support for Hamas of recent years over to the Palestinian Authority, giving it more resources to achieve postwar aims.

Gaza Destruction

Israel’s campaign to dismantle Hamas’s military and political structures both above ground and in a complex tunnel network has killed more than 16,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, and large areas have been reduced to rubble. It’s now Israel’s longest war since 1948.

An Israeli strike in southern Gaza on Dec. 4.Photographer: John Macdougall/AFP/Getty Images

An explosion in Khan Yunis as battles between Israel and Hamas militants continue, on Dec. 5.Photographer: Mohammed Abed/AFP/Getty Images

Under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel not only wants to destroy Hamas — considered a terrorist organization by the US and European Union — but doesn’t trust the Palestinian Authority to pursue peaceful coexistence. It opposes a two-state solution and is hoping to cultivate a new technocratic leadership within Gaza as an alternative to Shtayyeh and Abbas.

Shtayyeh’s idea that Hamas might join together with the Authority seems optimistic, not only because Hamas pushed the party out of Gaza following a 2007 civil war, but because four subsequent agreements between the sides haven’t been implemented.

Asked why Israel can’t eliminate Hamas, Shtayyeh said: “Hamas is in Lebanon, everybody knows Hamas leadership is in Qatar and they are here in the West Bank.”

Palestinians flee the north on the southern outskirts of Gaza City in November.Photographer: Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images

Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders have expressed anger that top Palestinians like Shtayyeh haven’t condemned the slaughter of Oct. 7. Asked to do so in the interview, Shtayyeh demurred, saying the conflict didn’t begin on that date and Israeli officials have refused to condemn things done by their citizens to Palestinians.

“What Israel is doing in Gaza is an act of revenge,” he said. “This is not going to take them anywhere.” At least half a million Gazans are likely to be homeless after the war, he added.

Shtayyeh, who’s worked in the Palestinian Authority for years after teaching economics and being a university administrator, said both Palestinian and Israeli youths are growing more militant and the chance for a peaceful agreement between the two sides is fading fast.

Mohammad Shtayyeh in Ramallah, on Dec. 7.Photographer: Stringer/Bloomberg

He said ministers in his government have repeatedly reached out to Israeli counterparts but have been rebuffed.

“Unfortunately, there is no partner on the other side,” he said, an echo of what Israelis say about Palestinians. “Look at what Netanyahu has been saying — no return to the Palestin

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Recipients

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

---------- Forwarded message ---------

From: David Maxwell <david.maxwell161@gmail.com>

Date: Fri, Dec 8, 2023 at 9:12 AM

Subject: 12/8/23 National Security News and Commentary

To: