Quotes of the Day:
“ Some things are believed because they are true. But many other things are believed simply because they have been asserted repeatedly.”
- Thomas Sowell
“The falsification of history has done more to impede human development than any one thing known to mankind.”
- Rousseau
“Prejudice, a dirty word, and faith, a clean one, have something in common: they both begin where reason ends.”
- Harper Lee
1. USFK chief calls N.K. nuke test 'not a matter of if, but when'
2. Presidential office vows to uncover truth behind repatriation of N.K. fishermen
3. Pictures Suggest N.Korean Fishermen Were 'Forcibly Repatriated'
4. Complaint filed against Moon gov't officials in repatriation of N.K. fishermen in 2019
5. U.S. Lawmaker Demands Probe of Repatriation of N.Korean Fishermen
6. Korea emerges as nuclear front line in U.S. rivalry with China and Russia
7. Yoon vows to establish cyber warfare reserve forces
8. Prosecutors raid NIS in probe into 2 incidents involving N. Korea during Moon gov't
9. [Exclusive] Commander of Special Warfare in Korea, “Only through practical training, you can have a ‘life-threatening experience’”
10. Esper predicts Korean involvement in any Taiwan conflict
11. USFK expected to resume firing drills at Rodriguez range
12. N. Korean leadership launches corruption probe into Pyongyang's Mirim Horse Riding Club
13. US Treasury Secretary's Seoul visit raises expectation on currency swap
14. South Korea ventures into its Indo-Pacific strategy
15. US Celebrates Alliance With Seoul: But Is South Korea Worth a Nuclear War?
1. USFK chief calls N.K. nuke test 'not a matter of if, but when'
Concur. It will happen.
I wish the ROK media and ROK government would use the correct title for the general. TheROK should always refer to him as the Commander of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. That is the command with the responsibility for deterrence and defense of the ORK and that command "belongs" to the ROK and US - there is co-equal ownership of the combined command and the commander works equally for both Presidents (and when OPCON transition occurs the ROK General in command will have the same command relationship to both Presidents through the Military Committee.)
The regime must test to advance their capabilities which is purely a military and strategic national security decision. The decision on timing may be related to political warfare and blackmail diplomacy to try to drive political and economic concessions, namely sanctions relief. While it is counterintuitive to some we should not fear a test. This is an opportunity to again demonstrate to Kim Jong Un that his political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and military strategies will not be successful. We can attack Kim's strategy. - e.g., recognize the strategy, understand it, expose it, and attack it (with a superior form of political warfare, military readiness, and strategic influence through information advantage).
All excellent points here from CINCUNC/CFC/USFK. (er... I mean the Commander of United Nations Command. the ROK/US Combined Forces Command and US Forces Korea and the Senior US military officer in Korea and permanent member of the Military Committee).
Training areas (and live fire ranges) have long been an issue with the development of ROK. And most importantly, we all need to consider the human domain and operations in the information environment.
Excerpts:
He stressed the importance of training but voiced concerns about troops' training areas having been reduced in line with the country's development projects.
"The challenge here is the economic growth and construction shrink some of our training areas. In those areas, we were able to train ... now we see progress, we see high rises, we see malls, etc," he said. "But we can't lose sight that we've got to have those areas to train. We've got to be able to train all of our systems."
When it comes to training, LaCamera said the allies should think about "all the domains" for security on the Korean Peninsula.
"We got to think about all the domains -- air, land, sea, cyberspace ... and quite frankly, the other one that's often overlooked is the human domain and information space," he said.
He cautioned that the North Korean leader is using the information domain "masterfully" to stop the allies' training.
"By complaining and making a big deal about what we do, he's trying to leverage that and get us to stop training," he said.
(LEAD) USFK chief calls N.K. nuke test 'not a matter of if, but when' | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with more remarks by LaCamera in paras 13-16)
By Song Sang-ho
SEOUL, July 13 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) chief Gen. Paul LaCamera said Wednesday it's "not a matter of if, but when" North Korea will conduct another nuclear test while stressing his "top priority" on combat readiness.
In a brief interview with Yonhap News Agency on the margins of a forum, LaCamera said the North could determine the timing of what would be its seventh nuclear test in consideration of various conditions, including a major political event in Beijing slated for this fall.
His remarks came amid speculation that Pyongyang has made all key preparations for a nuclear test at the Punggye-ri site and is waiting for the right timing.
"It is not a matter of if, but when," he said before his speech at the Asian Leadership Conference hosted by the local daily Chosun Ilbo. "It could be now, it could be a couple of weeks, it could be this year ... It could be how he feels he needs to use it for his leverage I think."
Asked what conditions the reclusive regime may consider before conducting a nuclear experiment, LaCamera pointed to a series of events, like China's "political meeting in the fall" in apparent reference to its Communist Party congress expected to reelect leader Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term.
"I think there are a lot of things going on in the world. You got the Ukraine (war), you have Chinese having their political meeting in the fall," he said.
Despite the evolving North Korean threats, LaCamera highlighted the South Korea-U.S. alliance's readiness.
"Combat readiness is a top priority," he said.
During the forum, LaCamera portrayed the North Korean leader as presenting "multiple dilemmas across multiple domains."
"Protection as a war-fighting function is extremely important, making sure that we're adapting to what he's doing," he said. "We've got to figure out different ways to not just get at the arrows, but how do we get at the archer. And this is everything that we're doing on a day-to-day basis to react."
He stressed the importance of training but voiced concerns about troops' training areas having been reduced in line with the country's development projects.
"The challenge here is the economic growth and construction shrink some of our training areas. In those areas, we were able to train ... now we see progress, we see high rises, we see malls, etc," he said. "But we can't lose sight that we've got to have those areas to train. We've got to be able to train all of our systems."
When it comes to training, LaCamera said the allies should think about "all the domains" for security on the Korean Peninsula.
"We got to think about all the domains -- air, land, sea, cyberspace ... and quite frankly, the other one that's often overlooked is the human domain and information space," he said.
He cautioned that the North Korean leader is using the information domain "masterfully" to stop the allies' training.
"By complaining and making a big deal about what we do, he's trying to leverage that and get us to stop training," he said.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
2. Presidential office vows to uncover truth behind repatriation of N.K. fishermen
This is just a terrible act perpetrated by the previous administration.
(2nd LD) Presidential office vows to uncover truth behind repatriation of N.K. fishermen | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with main opposition's response in last 3 paras)
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, July 13 (Yonhap) -- The office of President Yoon Suk-yeol on Wednesday slammed the previous administration's repatriation of two North Korean fishermen in 2019 as a potential "crime against humanity" and vowed to uncover the truth behind the case.
The statement came a day after the unification ministry released 10 photos of the two North Koreans being dragged across the inter-Korean border apparently against their will in November 2019, when former President Moon Jae-in was in office.
In one image, one of the men can be seen dragging his feet as North Korean soldiers try to pull him across the Military Demarcation Line inside the truce village of Panmunjom. Both men are blindfolded and their hands are tied with ropes.
"If they were forcibly sent to the North even though they stated their intention to defect, this would be an anti-humanitarian crime and a crime against humanity that violates both international law and the Constitution," presidential spokesperson Kang In-sun said during a press briefing.
"The Yoon Suk-yeol government will fully determine the truth behind this case in order to restore the universal values of freedom and human rights," she said.
The North Koreans had confessed to killing 16 fellow crew members and expressed a desire to defect to South Korea. But the then Moon government determined their intentions as insincere and sent them back to the North where they could face harsh punishment.
The repatriation sparked criticism the government sought to curry favor with Pyongyang.
It is one of the suspicious cases involving the previous administration that the incumbent Yoon government is revisiting, along with the North's killing of a South Korean fisheries official near the western sea border in 2020.
The then Moon government concluded that the official was shot and killed while trying to defect to the North. But the Coast Guard and the military reversed the conclusion last month, saying there was no evidence to suggest such motives.
The Moon government has been accused in both cases of trying to curry favor with North Korea to help its push to foster peace and reconciliation with the regime.
Kang said the image of the fishermen "doing everything not to be dragged away is clearly different from the explanation given by the Moon Jae-in government that they had no intention whatsoever to defect."
The photos have raised questions about the government's motives as it is rare for the unification ministry to release images of repatriations.
The timing coincides with a steady decline in Yoon's approval ratings.
"The Yoon Suk-yeol government always places importance on protecting the people's lives and safety and restoring the universal values of freedom and human rights," a presidential official said when asked whether there was no connection between the falling ratings and the repeated accusations against the previous administration.
"We are not retaliating by targeting the previous government," the official said.
The case of the fishermen has been met with mixed reactions because the men were accused of killing 16 of their fellow crewmen on a boat before they reportedly sought to defect.
"Regardless of what kind of people they were, if they crossed into the Republic of Korea and stated their intention to defect, there are proper steps that need to be taken for citizens of the Republic of Korea," the presidential official said when asked whether the Yoon administration's respect for human rights applies equally to such people.
"We believe the important thing on our part is whether such steps were taken and whether they were properly implemented."
But the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) warned against using the issue for political gain.
"Does it mean we have to accept brutal criminals who killed 16 people as our citizens?" DP Rep. Kim Byung-joo, who leads the DP's taskforce on the fisheries official's case, asked during a press conference at the National Assembly later Wednesday.
"We demand that national security, the military and the intelligence agency should no longer be used as a means of political dispute," Kim said, stressing the repatriation was carried out appropriately under relevant laws.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. Pictures Suggest N.Korean Fishermen Were 'Forcibly Repatriated'
There are more photos on social media and in the Korean language press.
My twitter exchange with my friend Hyunseung Lee who is an escapee and survivor of the regime in the north.
Hyun-Seung Lee
@LeeHyunSeung85
All day long, while looking at the photos of N.Korean defectors’s forced repatriation by the Moon administration, I kept thinking of my friend’s face who was executed and the college buddy who was taken to the political prison camp. Human rights are denied.
David Maxwell
@DavidMaxwell161
Acts of evil in the north and a despicable act by the previous administration in the South by forcing the repatriation of these two Koreans only to face certain death. Rule of law and due process are hallmarks of free nations and they did not exist for these two human beings.
Pictures Suggest N.Korean Fishermen Were 'Forcibly Repatriated'
July 13, 2022 14:10
The Unification Ministry on Tuesday released several photos supporting claims that two North Korean fishermen accused of murder were forcibly repatriated to their repressive country in November 2019.
The two fishermen were photographed in the border truce village of Panmunjom in Nov. 7 while they were blindfolded and handed over by South Korean officials to North Korean border guards.
The pictures suggest that the two desperately resisted crossing the military demarcation line. One of them appears to be screaming when he spots North Korean soldiers in front of him, and the other man is banging his head against a wall until his face is covered with blood.
It took 12 minutes to wrestle them across the border and hand them over to North Korean authorities.
The Moon Jae-in administration, which at the time was desperate to appease the North amid a flurry of summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, claimed the fishermen had murdered their captain and fellow crew and had no intention to defect.
But the photos support allegations that the government was lying.
"It seems that the North Korean refugees took extreme actions because of the fear that they would be executed in the North," a ministry official said Tuesday.
The ministry commonly films repatriations for the record, but it is rare for it to release the photos to the press.
The two had in fact expressed their intention to defect to South Korea in their handwritten statements during a government investigation, but the government ignored their request and hurriedly wrapped up the investigation. The Moon administration then told the press the fishermen were common criminals who had murdered 16 fellow crewmembers on board their trawler.
On Nov. 5, just three days after they were captured by the South Korean Navy, the government already promised to hand them and the boat over to North Korea.
The same day, Moon sent a letter to Kim inviting him to the ASEAN-Korea Commemorative Summit in Busan and adding he would repatriate the fishermen. Suh Hoon, the then National Intelligence Service chief, has been accused of ordering officials expedite the investigation in a bid to curry favor with the North Korea regime.
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
4. Complaint filed against Moon gov't officials in repatriation of N.K. fishermen in 2019
In a free country with the rule of law, all deserve and have the right to due process. The allegations should have been investigated by the ROK and if sufficient evidence was revelaed they should have been tried in the ROK and not sent to certain torture and death in the north.
Complaint filed against Moon gov't officials in repatriation of N.K. fishermen in 2019 | Yonhap News Agency
By Kim Han-joo
SEOUL, July 12 (Yonhap) -- An organization monitoring North Korea's human rights filed a complaint Tuesday against 11 former ranking South Korean government officials over allegations that they mishandled the deportation of North Korean defectors in 2019.
In November 2019, the former Moon Jae-in administration sent back two North Korean fishermen captured near the eastern inter-Korean sea border. The two confessed to killing 16 fellow crew members and expressed a desire to defect, but authorities dismissed their intentions as insincere.
The investigation into a North Korean defector usually takes between 15 days and one month, but the probe at the time only took around three to four days, stoking suspicion that the Seoul government tried to repatriate the defectors in an effort to curry favor with Pyongyang.
On Tuesday, the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights (NKDB) asked the prosecution to investigate 11 former officials under the Moon government, including Chung Eui-yong, the then national security adviser.
Charges include abuse of power, dereliction of duty, destruction of evidence, and aiding and abetting criminals, the NKDB said.
The NKDB said the two fishermen at the time were South Korean nationals, in accordance with the Constitution, and sending them back to the North was a human rights violation and infringement of sovereignty.
Earlier, Seoul's spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, also filed a complaint with the prosecution against its former chief, Suh Hoon, on allegations that he had ordered an early end to an internal investigation into the case.
khj@yna.co.kr
(END)
5. U.S. Lawmaker Demands Probe of Repatriation of N.Korean Fishermen
With all due respect to the Congressman, I recommend a check fire. I do not think the current ROK government needs any outside pressure. It has initiated an investigation into this appalling incident and others.
U.S. Lawmaker Demands Probe of Repatriation of N.Korean Fishermen
U.S. Representative Christopher Smith is demanding a "thorough audit" of the hasty repatriation of North Korean fishermen who washed up in South Korea in 2019.
Smith has convened a hearing of the House of Representatives' Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission on the issue of North Korean defectors.
Shin Hee-seok, a legal expert at the Transitional Justice Working Group, described to the commission how two North Koreans who had arrived in South Korea by sea and were blindfolded and driven to a location unknown to them under the escort of South Korean police in November 2019.
"Although the fishermen wished to defect to South Korea in handwritten statements, they were blindfolded and handed over to North Korea. When their blindfolds were finally removed before the repatriation, the fishermen reportedly collapsed to their knees in terror."
"Standing before the two North Korean escapees were North Korean officials who would take them into custody," he added.
The Moon Jae-in administration here at the time was desperate to appease North Korea after a flurry of ultimately fruitless summits.
Smith told the Chosun Ilbo, "It is absolutely a breach of the spirit that animates the principle of non-refoulement to send people back into harm's way. I could just imagine the terror that they felt when the blindfolds were removed... If they had done anything wrong, then there should be a process for addressing that, but they should not be refouled against their will."
President Yoon Suk-yeol has mentioned the possibility of an investigation into the incident.
"Regardless of the domestic political implications of this in Korea, I would think that the people would want to demand accountability -- how did this happen, who gave the order, and why," Smith said. "In my opinion, I think there should be a thorough audit, and any necessary policy changes made."
"I don't think this should have happened, certainly not in a country that has aspirations to leadership in the field of human rights, which is one of the reasons I was so critical of former President Moon, because he was previously a human rights activist and lawyer."
"President Moon was a real disappointment... and sought to placate despots like Kim Jong-un and Xi Jinping."
Meanwhile, Shin also reminded the commission of the murky case of a South Korea fisheries official who was brutally murdered by North Korean soldiers while the South Korean Navy looked on. "When the North Korean Navy executed Lee Dae-jun, an unarmed South Korean citizen that drifted into North Korean-controlled waters, reportedly as part of its brutal COVID-19 quarantine measure in September 2020, the Moon administration did its best to direct the blame away from Pyongyang, even making an [implausible] claim that he tried to defect to North Korea."
6. Korea emerges as nuclear front line in U.S. rivalry with China and Russia
This relatively small geographic area has a far outsized impact on global security than some might realize. What happens on the Korean peninsula will have global effects.
But we must not allow these types of comments from the regime to affect our decision making, especially when it comes to sustain readiness and conducting training.
Excerpts:
A more recent article published Monday by the North Korean Foreign Ministry tied the threat directly to trilateral security cooperation between the U.S., South Korea and Japan, who agreed last month to resume joint exercises, and held another session of talks Sunday, just as South Korea's military reported a new salvo of artillery fire from North Korea.
Ri Ji Song, a researcher at North Korea's Society for International Politics Study, warned in the article that, "if the large-scale joint military exercises are to be conducted defiantly on the Korean peninsula and in its vicinity with nuclear strategic assets of the U.S. being involved, it will trigger off due countermeasures of ours."
"And this will, in turn," Ri added, "create a touch-and-go situation in which even a small conflict can [lead] to a nuclear war easily."
Korea emerges as nuclear front line in U.S. rivalry with China and Russia
Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · July 11, 2022
As the United States' rivalry with China and Russia simmers across the globe, an old flashpoint threatens to erupt on the Korean peninsula, where unresolved tensions have re-emerged and the specter of nuclear war remains ever-present.
Since North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, the United Nations Security Council, including permanent members China, Russia and the U.S., has unanimously adopted 10 resolutions condemning such military activities and supporting international sanctions against the country officially known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). This unity was shattered for the first time on May 26 when Beijing and Moscow vetoed Washington's proposal to punish Pyongyang for recent missile tests.
The stalemate mirrored the recent failed attempts by the U.S. and its allies at the U.N. to condemn Russia for the war it launched on Ukraine three months earlier. President Joe Biden's administration has attempted to sway China away from Russia, but an even bigger geopolitical competition between Beijing and Washington has only served to reinforce the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two top rivals of the U.S.
The result has been a breakdown of decades of diplomacy seeking to bring peace to one of the first, deadliest conflicts of the Cold War, with factions forming along familiar lines — a "Northern Triangle" consisting of China, North Korea and Russia on the one hand, and a "Southern Triangle" made up of Japan, South Korea and the United States on the other.
A South Korean official, speaking to Newsweek on the condition of anonymity, said strained ties between the U.S. and China "always have a negative impact on inter-Korean rapprochement and also the denuclearization issue," but that recent events reveal that an even deeper crisis has arisen.
"Very clearly, we see the U.N. Security Council doesn't work after Ukraine, and China doesn't support any more sanctions against the DPRK," the South Korean official said. "That's a huge disaster for the DPRK nuclear issue and even inter-Korean relations."
And while ridding North Korea of its prized nuclear weapons remains the official aim of the U.S. and South Korea, the South Korean official worried that war in Europe and a worsening geopolitical struggle for influence in Asia may have set this goal back irreversibly, especially as Russia's incursion came nearly three decades after Kyiv agreed to return Soviet-era nuclear weapons deployed on Ukrainian soil in exchange for security assurances from Moscow.
"Definitely, from the Ukraine situation, we fear North Korea will never give up their nuclear weapons," the official said. "And then also it caused some Chinese calculations when the U.S. put more pressure on China on economic, security and national sovereignty issues."
While much attention has been given to the question of Taiwan, the South Korean official argued that when it comes to security concerns, Beijing may view the neighboring Korean peninsula in a similar fashion as Moscow does its western flank in Eastern Europe, saying that there is "some kind of situation like Ukraine and Russia" as the U.S. gets more involved.
So if tensions continue to escalate, the official said, "China has more willingness to take some control over the Korean peninsula."
A missile is fired during a joint training between the United States and South Korea on June 6 along South Korea's east coast as part of a response to North Korea's missile launches a day earlier. Getty Images/Dong-A Daily/South Korean Ministry of National Defense
North Korea has always maintained unique relationships with China and Russia, the two nations who supported it during the 1950s Korean War against South Korea, which received support from the U.S. and the U.N. The conflict was among the first to test the viability of the U.N. less than two years after it came into existence, and saw the first direct fighting between U.S. troops and those of the newly-established People's Republic of China (PRC) in a three-year war that ended without peace for the two Koreas.
Washington and Beijing would overcome tensions to establish diplomatic relations in 1979, and with the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, the conflict became seen as frozen to observers across the globe, even if it remained vivid to residents of the peninsula.
Any complacency that may have been generated collapsed when North Korea demonstrated its nuclear prowess against the wishes of even China and Russia. Repeated attempts at denuclearization-for-peace dialogue repeatedly unraveled, as recently as two years ago. Then-President Donald Trump and then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in made historic inroads with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, but Pyongyang reverted to hostility after talks ultimately broke down, leaving little room for engagement.
"We've tried to knock on North Korea's door. We don't have any hidden agenda, just saying, 'Let's talk,'" another South Korean official, who also asked not to be named, told Newsweek. "Even after the recent missile fire, which of course we condemn in the strongest terms, we have never shut the door for diplomacy and dialogue."
While conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office in May, has sought to break with his liberal predecessor's peace-first approach to inter-Korean ties, the new administration has continued to seek talks and offer assistance without conditions, according to both South Korean officials.
"North Korea should really think this through and take up our offer for dialogue," the second South Korean official said. "War is not an option; the only way forward is diplomacy."
But in the absence of any breakthrough, Seoul is investing in its own national defense capabilities like never before. These include new missile systems that South Korean troops have showcased, sometimes in joint maneuvers with the U.S., in response to North Korea's recent uptick in missile activity that both U.S. and South Korean officials suspect to be the prelude to a seventh nuclear test.
There has even been discussion in South Korea about the country obtaining its own nuclear weapons, or at least deploying those of the U.S., as was the case throughout much of the Cold War. Popular support for obtaining such weapons of mass destruction has steadily increased in recent years, hitting some 71% in a poll published by the Chicago Council on February 21, three days before Russia's attack on Ukraine.
Though the issue remains a topic of debate for Seoul, there is a consensus on the threat posed by Pyongyang's own increasingly advanced arsenal, especially as Kim set out to develop not only larger platforms, but smaller, tactical ones that could pose an even more immediate danger to South Korea.
"The North Korea nuclear threat is imminent; it's there at our doorstep," the second South Korean official said. "We really want to deal with this."
And while that official said it may be South Koreans who are most "directly affected" by the issue, the official argued that, "at the same time, it is also everyone's problem."
"It's China's problem, it's Russia's problem," the second official added. "That's what we try to convey to our neighbors, to the international community."
Should Beijing and Moscow continue this trend of blocking the U.S.-led push for even more stringent measures against Pyongyang, the second South Korean official said he felt that they "will feel the pressure from other countries involved with the issue."
North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un walks flanked by top officials in front of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile ahead of his country's fourth and latest ICBM test on March 24. Korean Central News Agency
But China and Russia have long resisted outside pressure to change their stance, and the divisive state of international affairs that has emerged since the war in Ukraine began has only forced Western and Eastern blocs further apart. Both two countries see an impending end of an era in which the U.S. could impose its dominance over the international security order.
This schism, however, has not stopped the U.S. from appealing to China for support in attempting to denuclearize North Korea.
"We have repeatedly made clear that we will cooperate with the PRC where we can," a State Department spokesperson told Newsweek, "and we remain committed to seeking cooperation with the PRC on DPRK issues."
Amid a flurry of engagements between top officials from Beijing and Washington this year, Chinese special representative on Korean peninsula affairs Liu Xiaoming met with U.S. special representative for North Korea Sung Kim on April 5 in Washington. In this meeting, the State Department spokesperson said that the U.S. side "emphasized that the United States and the PRC have a very important shared interest in maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula."
"Beijing shares the goal of the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," the spokesperson added, "and S/R Kim looks forward to working with Liu and his colleagues in Beijing to make progress toward that goal."
Hopes for cooperation between the two leading world powers in this area were also conveyed by White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan during his meeting last month in Geneva with Chinese Central Foreign Affairs Commission Director Yang Jiechi. A senior Biden administration official told reporters at the time that Sullivan "made very clear that we believe this is an area where the United States and China should be able to work together."
But the senior administration official also said the U.S. side "raised concerns" regarding China's recent voting record on the issue at the U.N., and these concerns were echoed by the State Department spokesperson with whom Newsweek spoke.
"The DPRK's ballistic missile launches are a clear violation of UNSCRs prohibiting the DPRK's ballistic missile development," the spokesperson said. "The unprecedented number of DPRK ballistic missile launches this year and the instability they bring to the Korean Peninsula are in no one's interest."
"We continue to urge the PRC and Russia to fully and completely fulfill their obligations under the DPRK UN Security Council resolutions that the UN Security Council unanimously adopted," the spokesperson added.
The Biden administration was also pushing for China to crack down on other areas of its relationship with North Korea.
"Beijing can also do more to combat the DPRK's sanctions evasion efforts in PRC coastal waters, to repatriate North Korean laborers earning income in its territory, and to shut down procurement networks," the spokesperson said.
For China, it remains paramount to maintain security along the border across which the People's Liberation Army fought the largest war in the country's history under Communist Party rule.
And Chinese officials see this as a mutual goal among nations.
"China always believes that to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and achieve denuclearization on the Peninsula is in the shared interest of all parties and the international community," Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, told Newsweek.
"We hope all parties concerned will stay calm, work in the same direction, refrain from moves or rhetoric that may be perceived as provocative, and jointly advance the process of political settlement of the issues on the Korean Peninsula," Liu Pengyu added.
Chinese Type 055-class destroyer Nanchang is seen bearing the flags of the People's Republic of China and the People's Liberation Army Navy on its port side and the flag of the Russian Federation on its starboard side, as Type 052D-class destroyer Kunming and Type 054A-class frigate Binzhou follow during a joint patrol with the Russian Navy in the western Pacific Ocean in a photo published October 26. Russian Ministry of Defense
Both China and Russia have called on the U.S. to ease sanctions on North Korea, rather than tighten them. Since 2019, as U.S.-North Korea peace talks began to fall apart, the two powers have put forth a draft resolution of their own, one would that would remove bans preventing North Korea from exporting goods such as statues, seafood and textiles, and would raise a cap on importing refined petroleum.
These measures were billed as necessary to ease the burden on North Korean civilians at a time when the country was going through severe economic hardships that have been noted by Kim in high-profile speeches and meetings.
With the U.N. at a standstill, however, Beijing and Moscow have also shored up their military cooperation, including most recently a series of joint drills in the Pacific, just two days before their Security Council veto in May, and just as Biden was in the region on a visit to meet the leaders of South Korea and Japan.
The U.S. and its allies sought to rally efforts to counter China and Russia during recent summits held by the G7 and NATO, where the threat posed by North Korea was also discussed among member states.
In a statement issued last week, the North Korean Foreign Ministry dismissed the display as an "anti-DPRK row of the hostile forces" that coincided "with the start of the RIMPAC joint military exercises, the U.S.-led multinational naval combined exercises, and south Korea's military lunacy to destroy peace and stability in the Korean peninsula as well as the Asia-Pacific region through the largest-ever scale dispatch of its naval force."
The statement also detailed an alleged plot to open two fronts against China and Russia, echoing language used by the two countries, who regularly accuse the U.S. of destabilizing the international order through military expansion and the formation of powerful alliances.
"The recent NATO summit more clearly proves that the U.S. pursues a plan to contain Russia and China at the same time by realizing the 'militarization' of Europe and forming a military alliance like NATO in the Asia-Pacific region," the statement said, "and keeps the U.S.-Japan-south Korea tripartite military alliance as an important means for materializing the plan."
The ministry also warned that the "reckless actions of the U.S. and its vassal forces" had created a "dangerous situation, in which a nuclear war might break out simultaneously in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region."
"World peace and security came to be placed in the most critical condition after the end of the Cold War," the statement added.
A more recent article published Monday by the North Korean Foreign Ministry tied the threat directly to trilateral security cooperation between the U.S., South Korea and Japan, who agreed last month to resume joint exercises, and held another session of talks Sunday, just as South Korea's military reported a new salvo of artillery fire from North Korea.
Ri Ji Song, a researcher at North Korea's Society for International Politics Study, warned in the article that, "if the large-scale joint military exercises are to be conducted defiantly on the Korean peninsula and in its vicinity with nuclear strategic assets of the U.S. being involved, it will trigger off due countermeasures of ours."
"And this will, in turn," Ri added, "create a touch-and-go situation in which even a small conflict can [lead] to a nuclear war easily."
Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · July 11, 2022
7. Yoon vows to establish cyber warfare reserve forces
Yoon vows to establish cyber warfare reserve forces | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, July 13 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk-yeol vowed Wednesday to establish reserve forces for cyber warfare to better respond to growing cyber threats.
Yoon made the remark during a ceremony marking the 11th Information Security Day, which was designated by law in 2012 to enhance the protection of personal information.
"As the digital transformation accelerates, so too are cyber threats increasing," he said at Pangyo Techno Valley in Seongnam, just south of Seoul.
"Cyber attacks occur indiscriminately without distinguishing between the private and public sectors and threaten everything from infrastructure to ordinary citizens," he said.
Yoon pledged to launch "cyber reserve forces" composed of both the civil and government sectors to strengthen the country's capacity to conduct cyber warfare.
The president also vowed to address the shortage in cyber personnel by expanding related courses in universities and graduate schools and fostering a 100,000-strong workforce, including 40,000 new personnel.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
8. Prosecutors raid NIS in probe into 2 incidents involving N. Korea during Moon gov't
The ROK government is now aggressively investigating this tragedy. But they must not allow this to become political.
(2nd LD) Prosecutors raid NIS in probe into 2 incidents involving N. Korea during Moon gov't | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: RECASTS headline; UPDATES with more info throughout)
SEOUL, July 13 (Yonhap) -- Prosecutors raided the state intelligence agency on Wednesday as part of an investigation into its two former directors in two separate incidents linked to North Korea during the previous administration.
The Seoul Central District Prosecutors Office sent a team of prosecutors and investigators to the head office of the National Intelligence Service (NIS) in southern Seoul to seize documents and other evidence, officials said.
The investigation came after the NIS filed a complaint with the prosecution against Park Jie-won, a former head of the NIS, and his predecessor, Suh Hoon, for destroying intelligence documents and ordering an investigation to end early, respectively. Both of them served under the liberal Moon Jae-in administration.
The agency has brought multiple charges against its own former chiefs, such as abuse of power, damaging public records and falsifying official records.
Park allegedly deleted intelligence-related reports without authorization pertaining to North Korea's killing of a South Korean fisheries official in September 2020.
The 47-year-old official, Lee Dae-jun, was fatally shot by the North's coast guard near the Yellow Sea border between the two Koreas, a day after going missing while on duty on board a fishery inspection boat.
The Moon government concluded at the time that the official was killed while attempting to defect to the North, but that conclusion was overturned last month as the Coast Guard announced it has found no concrete evidence backing the defection allegations.
Park served as the NIS chief from July 2020 to May 2022 until President Yoon Suk-yeol took office.
Park has dismissed the allegations, saying that he knew nothing of the deleted documents.
Separately, the NIS also requested the prosecution look into suspicions that Suh ordered an early end to an internal investigation into the case of two North Korean fishermen who were sent back to the North in 2019.
In November 2019, two North Korean fishermen were captured near the eastern inter-Korean sea border, and they later confessed to killing 16 fellow crew members and expressed a desire to defect.
However, the Moon administration sent them back to the North, where they could face harsh punishment, saying their intentions are insincere. The move stoked suspicion the Seoul government tried to repatriate the defectors in an effort to curry favor with Pyongyang.
Suh worked as head of the NIS from 2017 to 2020 and then served as Moon's national security adviser for two years.
Suh, who has not made any announcement, is currently staying in the United States.
khj@yna.co.kr
(END)
9. [Exclusive] Commander of Special Warfare in Korea, “Only through practical training, you can have a ‘life-threatening experience’”
This is an article in the Chosun Ilbo. It is not published in the english language section of the paper so this is a Google translation so please excuse the awkward phrasing especially in the "direct (translated) quotes" from Maj Gen Martin. I assure you he does not really speak like a Google translator does!
This is important on a number of levels. This complements General LaCamera's recent comments on the importance of field and live fire training. ROK Special Forces training at the US National Training Center is an important evolution in the ROK/US training relationship (and because so much of the north is deforested there might be some useful similarities in terrain). And of course there is the messaging for multiple target audiences though the ROK press is known for some rather hyperbolic reporting, e.g., "beheading." This is normal direct action training against high value targets that, yes, does include leadership of the nKPA.
[Exclusive] Commander of Special Warfare in Korea, “Only through practical training, you can have a ‘life-threatening experience’”
Interview with commander Michael Martin, commander of the US-Korea joint military drill for the first time in the US to conduct a 'beheading operation' in case of emergency
“Simulation training must be supported by actual battles”
“The ROK-US readiness posture is highest”
Enter 2022.07.09 02:53 | Edited 2022.07.09 03:00
Soldiers from the ROK and US Special Warfare Commands have been conducting joint training at the Fort Irwin National Training Center (NTC), a large-scale outdoor training ground in the Mojave Desert, California, since the 14th of last month. The South Korean military said on the 8th that it is the first time for South Korean and US special warfare units to train together in the United States together, carrying out the so-called 'beheading operation' to remove the North Korean leadership in case of emergency.
The South Korean special forces dispatched troops, including about 70 members of the 13th Special Forces Brigade, created to eliminate the North Korean leadership in case of emergency. During the training period of about a month, it is reported that the South Korean and US special forces soldiers are training to infiltrate the rear and strike key enemy bases. Some inside and outside the ROK and US military have interpreted it as “a strong public warning to the Kim Jong-un regime in a situation where North Korea’s 7th nuclear test is imminent” that the special forces of both countries conduct their first real-world exercises at the US NTC.
Michael E. Martin, commander of U.S. Special Operations Forces in Korea. The Pentagon appointed Major General Martin of the Air Force in June last year, and upgraded the position of commander of the Special Operations Command to Major General. /U.S. Air Force
U.S. Forces Korea Special Forces Commander Michael E Martin, who is in charge of this exercise at the forefront, had a video interview with this magazine at NTC on the 6th (local time). He said, "During this exercise, the ROK and the US were dedicated to preparing an operational readiness posture in case they had to defend the Korean Peninsula (from North Korea, etc.)." did. “South Korea and North Korea are (still) in a state of ceasefire. “The only way to be operationally prepared (in case of a North Korean attack) is to test [the military capabilities of both countries] at the highest level,” he said. The US Department of Defense appointed Major General Martin Martin in June last year, upgrading the commander of the Special Operations Command, which had been previously held by a Brigadier General, to Major General.
- Did you train with North Korea as an 'enemy'?
“This training is not meant to provoke anyone. I'll just say this. South Korea is at a truce with North Korea. All we are doing here is that we are committed to being operationally prepared in case we have to defend South Korea. The only way to be operationally prepared (in case of a North Korean attack) is to test at the highest level. This training is important in that it gave military commanders and special forces members an opportunity to think through real-world training in action, reaction, and reaction. The more you sweat and the more peace you get, the less you bleed in war. With the ROK-U.S. alliance, our readiness posture is at its peak.”
-Why is outdoor practical training more important than computer simulation (mock training)?
“Mock training is useful for potentially lowering the risk (which may occur during operation) by allowing certain operations to be operated with greater flexibility and agility. However, in the end, the simulation must be supported by actual practice. For example, shooting in simulation is different from shooting in real world. In the actual field, you can feel the heat coming from the ground, which has a real effect on the troops' vision and shooting ability. Simulation is easy. If you make a mistake, you can go back and practice again, but in actual training, you will experience risking your own life. Psychologically, you learn a lot more through practical training.”
- During the previous Moon Jae-in administration, practical maneuver training was suspended for nearly four years. Because of this, concerns arose one after another that “computer game training without outdoor maneuver training would disrupt the combined defense capability.”
“The work of the private government (at the time of the Moon administration) is a matter for them to decide, and we respect that,” he said. We will seize the opportunity [of the joint South Korea-US joint exercise] and strengthen our defense posture on the Korean Peninsula.”
- How has North Korea's nuclear threat changed compared to the past?
“They are about to conduct their seventh nuclear test. Whether North Korea's nuclear test succeeds or fails, they are still advancing and learning. They are making progress (by experimentation) just as we learn by training.”
- North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities have continued to advance despite the United States' promises of extended deterrence. How can South Korea and the US effectively strengthen their extended deterrence against North Korea?
“Over the past few months, the deployment of US strategic assets (B-1B strategic bombers, F-35A stealth aircraft, etc.) has continued on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, I believe that it is essential for the ROK and US forces to work together in the air, land, and cyberspace through joint exercises. Through practical training between our two countries, we can demonstrate our agility and our level of understanding in combat.”
- It is unusual for an active-duty U.S. commander to attend an interview with the media.
“I want to inform the Korean people, as well as the American people, of what USFK and ROK forces are doing to ensure an ironclad commitment to the defense of the Korean Peninsula. I want the Korean people to know that we (the US military) are taking the Korea-US alliance that seriously. USFK is committed to defending the Korean Peninsula with the ROK military in South Korea.”
10. Esper predicts Korean involvement in any Taiwan conflict
Excerpt:
In an interview with the Voice of America on Tuesday, Esper said it would be hard to imagine Seoul not intervening at all if Washington was involved in such a conflict, whether the intervention involved military means or economic sanctions.
He also criticized the former Moon Jae-in administration for its policy of “strategic ambiguity” on the U.S.-China rivalry.
Wednesday
July 13, 2022
Esper predicts Korean involvement in any Taiwan conflict
In this June 26, 2019 file photo, then-U.S. Secretary for Defense Mark Esper speaks prior to a meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. [AP/YONHAP]
Former U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Korea will have no choice but to intervene with the United States in the Taiwan Strait should a conflict break out between Taiwan and China.
In an interview with the Voice of America on Tuesday, Esper said it would be hard to imagine Seoul not intervening at all if Washington was involved in such a conflict, whether the intervention involved military means or economic sanctions.
He also criticized the former Moon Jae-in administration for its policy of “strategic ambiguity” on the U.S.-China rivalry.
“China has used its economic might against Korea, particularly with the initial deployment of the Thaad site, China has used its economic might against Australia, other countries around the world, but it’s not going to get any easier if you kowtow to them every time they do this,” he said, using the acronym for the U.S.-led antimissile system, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, which Korea deployed on its territory in 2017.
“Which is why I think it’s imperative, again, that the democracies of the Indo-Pacific and certainly the world stand up to the Chinese and say we’re not going to tolerate this behavior,” he said.
Esper also called for a more permanent deployment of F-35 fighter jets in Korea to counter the threat from North Korea.
“[The] threat from North Korea is real and it would be immediate if Kim Jong-un decided to do something, so I was always a big believer in having our most advanced capabilities forward, and in this case it would be the F-35 given what it brings to the battle space,” he said.
Six U.S. F-35A fighter jets arrived in Korea last week to participate in joint drills, which was the first time in five years America’s stealth warplanes were deployed publicly to Korea.
In a recently published memoir, “A Sacred Oath: Memoirs of a Secretary of Defense During Extraordinary Times,” Esper wrote that he saw a need to upgrade the fighter jets of the U.S. Forces Korea to F-35s during his tenure as defense secretary, but that there were several obstacles such as public opinion in Korea at the time and the Moon administration’s policies toward the North, which emphasized peace and dialogue.
Esper was defense secretary from 2019 to 2020 for the Donald Trump administration.
Esper added that Korea should be more active and ask to join the Quad, or Quadrilateral Security Dialogue among the United States, Japan, Australia and India.
“Maybe the Quad partners aren’t inviting but I think Seoul should knock on that door pretty loud, and ask to enter, push to join,” he said.
BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]
11. USFK expected to resume firing drills at Rodriguez range
USFK expected to resume firing drills at Rodriguez range
Apache helicopters are parked at U.S. Army Garrison (USAG) Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province. Yonhap
By Kang Seung-woo
Speculation is growing that U.S. Apache helicopters may return to the Rodriguez Live Fire Complex in Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province, for live-fire exercises amid persisting complaints from nearby residents over noise and other inconveniences due to the drills.
According to the Korean military, Wednesday, the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) plans to conduct the training from July 18 to 29 during the day and night.
The exercises will be carried out in order to measure the intensity of noise from live-fire drills, based on a recently enacted law aimed at compensating local residents suffering from noise caused by military airports and shooting ranges. Under the law, people residing near military airports and ranges are entitled to receive up to 60,000 won ($45) per person per month without filing a lawsuit.
The USFK has not conducted live-fire drills since July 2018 ostensibly due to stray round incidents, but taking a closer look, the noise issue is the main reason for the suspension of the exercises, according to military sources.
In accordance with the law, the authorities will carry out noise measurement, and the USFK and Pocheon City will use the results to discuss the standard of compensation.
"The planned live-fire drills are linked to the compensation law rather than the U.S. seeking to resume the training there," a military officer said on condition of anonymity.
Due to pretests from residents near the Rodriguez range, the USFK has moved to a new range in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province, but residents there are also complaining of the noise issue, thereby forcing U.S. troops to suspend live-fire training.
The firing range issue has been troubling the USFK as it faces noise complaints and safety concerns from Pocheon residents.
In that respect, former USFK commander General Robert Abrams expressed concerns that live-fire drills were being disrupted by the shutdown of firing ranges here, thereby forcing USFK troops to go abroad for live-fire training.
Although the drills are part of the relevant law, many believe that it is a process before the USFK resumes live-fire exercises there.
"The planned firing training will be conducted due to the law, but the USFK may want to resume its exercises there after settling the issue with Pocheon residents," another military officer said.
In addition, the new Korean government is stressing its alliance with the United States, raising expectations that the live-fire exercises will resume in Pocheon.
The USFK launched a permanent Apache helicopter unit in May, reportedly comprised of 24 of the latest Apache helicopters.
However, Pocheon residents are still opposed to the plan.
According to a media report, an official of Pocheon City said the planned drills did not have to do with the USFK's future live-fire drills and will be done in relation to the compensation law.
12. N. Korean leadership launches corruption probe into Pyongyang's Mirim Horse Riding Club
No one is safe from the party.
Excerpts:
“The Discipline Inspection Department officials who came for the inspection are taking a close look into Mirim Horse Riding Club’s [alleged] corruption,” said the source. “Cadres and staff are nervous that they’ll get in trouble since the Central Committee is running the inspection.
“Mirim Horse Riding Club was constructed with special interest from the Supreme Leader [Kim Jong Un], so it’s an even bigger problem that the capitalist phenomenon of providing exclusive private lessons to the children of cadres and wealthy families has emerged [there],” the source continued, adding, “I expect there to be major fallout.”
Created at the Eighth Party Congress in January of 2021, the Discipline Inspection Department aims to strengthen the authority of the ruling party’s Central Auditing Commission, which keeps an eye on rule violations by party members, adjudicates infractions and handles complaints and petitions.
N. Korean leadership launches corruption probe into Pyongyang's Mirim Horse Riding Club - Daily NK
“Cadres and staff are nervous that they’ll get in trouble since the Central Committee is running the inspection," a source told Daily NK
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on a horse atop Mount Paektu. This image was released by North Korean state media on Oct. 16, 2019. (KCNA)
The Central Committee’s Discipline Inspection Department recently began investigating Pyongyang’s Mirim Horse Riding Club after receiving a report that alleged corruption on the part of officials there.
A source in Pyongyang told Daily NK on July 5 that the Discipline Inspection Department has been investigating the club’s party committee since mid-June for allegedly taking large sums of money to provide private lessons to the children of cadres.
According to the source, four middle school students who were learning to ride at Mirim Horse Riding Club were hospitalized on June 18 after they suffered riding accidents. Three sustained light injuries while one suffered from more serious injuries.
When the club blamed the students for the accident, an angry parent complained to the Central Committee that the club was taking large sums of money to provide private one-on-one lessons.
North Korea strictly forbids private education. However, after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, his wife Ri Sol Ju, his sister Kim Yo Jong and close cadres appeared horseback in a new documentary film titled “2021: Year of a Great Victory,” Pyongyang’s upper class reportedly developed a keen interest in horse riding. Private riding lessons took off, too.
In fact, Central Committee cadres and Pyongyang’s wealthy class are reportedly paying large sums so that their children can take private, one-on-one riding lessons.
According to the source, Mirim Horse Riding Club was taking USD 1,800 per person for a year of lessons when the Discipline Inspection Department launched its inspection.
“The Discipline Inspection Department officials who came for the inspection are taking a close look into Mirim Horse Riding Club’s [alleged] corruption,” said the source. “Cadres and staff are nervous that they’ll get in trouble since the Central Committee is running the inspection.
“Mirim Horse Riding Club was constructed with special interest from the Supreme Leader [Kim Jong Un], so it’s an even bigger problem that the capitalist phenomenon of providing exclusive private lessons to the children of cadres and wealthy families has emerged [there],” the source continued, adding, “I expect there to be major fallout.”
Created at the Eighth Party Congress in January of 2021, the Discipline Inspection Department aims to strengthen the authority of the ruling party’s Central Auditing Commission, which keeps an eye on rule violations by party members, adjudicates infractions and handles complaints and petitions.
Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
13. US Treasury Secretary's Seoul visit raises expectation on currency swap
Excerpts:
Rhee confirmed Yellen’s visit to Korea during a press conference after the Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting Wednesday, when the Korean central bank announced an unprecedented interest rate hike by 50 basis points to 2.25 percent.
Rhee also told press that Finance Minister Choo will be the likely counterpart with Yellen to discuss ways to tame the strengthening US dollar against the Korean won, while the possibility of a foreign currency swap is unlikely to be discussed between Rhee and Yellen. The dollar-to-won currency exchange rate hit the highest point in over 13 years, with the dollar trading above 1,310 won.
US Treasury Secretary's Seoul visit raises expectation on currency swap
Published : Jul 13, 2022 - 15:14 Updated : Jul 13, 2022 - 15:35
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing on US President Joe Biden‘s proposed 2023 US budget, on Capitol Hill in Washington, June 8. (Reuters-Yonhap)
United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is poised to hold talks with South Korea‘s key financial policymakers, raising market expectations of a possible currency swap amid the growing strength of the US dollar against the local currency.
Her two-day visit to Korea on July 19-20 will take place immediately after the Group of 20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Bali, Indonesia, scheduled from Friday to Saturday. During her visit, the secretary will also visit LG Science Park, a research campus of the nation’s fourth-largest conglomerate in Seoul.
On the first day of the trip to Korea, Yellen is to meet Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho and Bank of Korea Gov. Rhee Chang-yong.
Rhee confirmed Yellen’s visit to Korea during a press conference after the Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting Wednesday, when the Korean central bank announced an unprecedented interest rate hike by 50 basis points to 2.25 percent.
Rhee also told press that Finance Minister Choo will be the likely counterpart with Yellen to discuss ways to tame the strengthening US dollar against the Korean won, while the possibility of a foreign currency swap is unlikely to be discussed between Rhee and Yellen. The dollar-to-won currency exchange rate hit the highest point in over 13 years, with the dollar trading above 1,310 won.
On July 20, Yellen is scheduled to visit LG Science Park in western Seoul, home to the research base of eight LG group affiliates, including LG Chem.
Yellen is to deliver a speech over the need to ensure resilience in the supply chain. LG Chem Chief Executive Officer Shin Hak-cheol is to accompany Yellen in her visit there.
14. South Korea ventures into its Indo-Pacific strategy
Conclusion:
South Korea needs to pursue strategic flexibility. While strategic clarity has advantages in terms of predictability, transparency and consistency in foreign policy, an overt focus on strategic clarity may prove to be a diplomatic burden in an era of hyper-uncertainty.
The new government should seek strategic flexibility by combining various policies to go beyond the historical dichotomy between strategic ambiguity and strategic clarity in South Korean foreign policy.
South Korea ventures into its Indo-Pacific strategy | East Asia Forum
Author: Seungjoo Lee, Chung-Ang University
Strategic competition between the United States and China has dramatically revealed the vulnerabilities of the ideological and institutional foundations of globalisation. The Biden administration is actively promoting the ‘reshoring’ of production to contain China and alleviate supply chain vulnerabilities. It is also fostering high-tech cooperation with allies and partners — a policy from which South Korea has emerged as a key player.
The cornerstone of expanded ROK–US cooperation was laid out at the summit between US President Joe Biden and former South Korean president Moon Jae-in in May 2021. Here the two leaders confirmed they would cooperate in their response to global challenges including COVID-19, the global economic recovery and climate change. At the ROK–US business roundtable, plans for cooperation in semiconductors, batteries, electric vehicles, vaccines and the space sector were announced.
Despite expanding bilateral cooperation, the Moon government was cautious about strengthening cooperation with Washington on its regional strategy. The Moon government was concerned that cooperation with the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy could be misinterpreted as participation in an anti-China coalition.
Deciding whether to join the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) revealed South Korea’s dilemma over elevating bilateral cooperation with the United States to regional cooperation. The Moon government pursued strategic ambiguity to separate its national security from the economy. Rather than formally joining the Quad, the Moon government committed to cooperation in areas to which it could substantially contribute. Seoul’s strategic posture jointly considered South Korea’s major economic dependence on China and the ROK–US alliance as a key pillar of security.
The need for South Korea to take advantage of the economic rise of China as its largest trading partner — especially with increasing uncertainty in the global economy — gave rise to the powerful mantra ‘security with the United States, economy with China’. This was the idea that South Korea could maximise its national interests by expanding economic relations with China, while also solidifying its traditional security alliance with the United States.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has pursued an integration of economics and security since his inauguration on 10 May 2022 — shifting away from Moon’s strategic ambiguity. His new foreign policy stance focusses on the uncertainty caused by emerging security threats, strengthening regional diplomacy to alleviate dependence on China and pursuing high-tech competitiveness through better global economic governance. The Yoon government is seeking to upgrade the ROK–US alliance into a comprehensive strategic alliance.
The changes to ROK–US relations were on display at the May 2022 ROK–US summit. Biden’s visit to South Korea was held just 11 days after Yoon took power in the new presidential office — symbolising a new chapter in ROK–US relations. South Korea’s stance on the Quad changed when, in April 2022, then president-elect Yoon made it clear that, while continuing to pledge South Korea’s participation in the working group, the new government would positively review joining the Quad if invited.
When the Yoon government announced it would jointly launch Washington’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), concerns grew that South Korea’s decision to join the IPEF as an inaugural member would further hamper peace and prosperity on the Korean peninsula. Critics claimed it ignored the harsh reality of Seoul’s economic dependence on China, but the decision shifted South Korea’s foreign policy from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity.
At the core of the decision was a push to manage the risk of China’s economic coercion. South Korea replaced ‘security with the United States, economy with China’ with ‘security with the United States, economy with the world’. The IPEF is a new opportunity and a challenge that requires South Korea to pursue a sophisticated economic statecraft that combines diverse policies addressing various areas of interest.
South Korea has reaffirmed itself as an indispensable ally of the United States seeking to establish a regional rules-based order to govern emerging issues including the digital economy, climate change, decarbonisation and anti-corruption. Given that US–China strategic competition is escalating, South Korea should lead the establishment of an inclusive regional and global order such that the Indo-Pacific does not fall into a vortex of self-interested competition.
The IPEF will likely face difficulties in setting high standards for emerging issues, but South Korea is in a good position to mediate between regional countries with different interests and capacities. It should pursue middle power diplomacy that provides developing countries with the capacity to meet emerging standards in the digital economy, climate change and COVID-19.
South Korea needs to pursue strategic flexibility. While strategic clarity has advantages in terms of predictability, transparency and consistency in foreign policy, an overt focus on strategic clarity may prove to be a diplomatic burden in an era of hyper-uncertainty.
The new government should seek strategic flexibility by combining various policies to go beyond the historical dichotomy between strategic ambiguity and strategic clarity in South Korean foreign policy.
Seungjoo Lee is professor of Political Science and International Relations at Chung-Ang University, Seoul.
15. US Celebrates Alliance With Seoul: But Is South Korea Worth a Nuclear War?
I am afraid articles like this undermine the alliance. But the problem I have with this is the idea that the withdrawal of US forces from Korea will almost certainly not prevent war and in fact will increase its likelihood. If we have withdrawn and the north does attack the South are we going to sit at home and wish South k\Korea all the best because we are afraid the north might use nuclear weapons? If we do decide to return, do we understand that it will be exponentially harder to re-engage on the peninsula than it was in 1950. But will we allow the threat of nuclear war to deter us from coming to the aid of a treaty ally?
Or is a better course of action to work to deter war on the peninsula? What is the best way to deter war? Demonstrate strength and resolve and the best way to do that is to sustain the ROK/US Combined Forces Command.
Most important perhaps it is time for us to look beyond the nuclear threat and work toward solving the entire secuirty porblem in Korea. This requires a solution to the "Korea question" which must reult in a free and unified Korea.
US Celebrates Alliance With Seoul: But Is South Korea Worth a Nuclear War?
President Joe Biden visited Northeast Asia last month. As if possible involvement in a European nuclear conflagration wasn’t enough, he threatened China with war over Taiwan, and pledged to defend the Republic of Korea from its northern antagonist. Now he is off to the Middle East, apparently ready to make security promises to the Medieval Gulf dictatorships of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
One is left wondering how many wars the President wants to wage at once!
Fighting a conventional conflict is bad enough. But for what should this or any President be willing to risk the American homeland?
So far this year the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has conducted 31 missile tests. More ominously, the DPRK appears to be readying its nuclear test site. As relations improved with the US, highlighted by the 2018 summit between the North’s Kim Jong-un and President Donald Trump, the North imposed a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile (ICBM) tests. The bilateral relationship has since cratered. Kim launched ICBMs earlier this year, and a nuclear test appears inevitable.
The convergence of missile and nuclear tests is directed at creating a nuclear deterrent against America. If Pyongyang gains the potential—a serious possibility would be enough—of dropping nukes on even a couple US cities, the military picture will look very different for Washington. And North Korea is seeking to become a major nuclear power.
Last year the Rand Corporation and Asan Institute issued a forbidding assessment of the DPRK’s program. They warned “that, by 2027, North Korea could have 200 nuclear weapons and several dozen intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and hundreds of theater missiles for delivering the nuclear weapons. The ROK and the United States are not prepared, and do not plan to be prepared, to deal with the coercive and warfighting leverage that these weapons would give North Korea.”
Imagine such a world. Pyongyang would be firmly ensconced in the second tier of nuclear powers, alongside France, India, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom. The North could overwhelm missile defenses in Asia and America. In the event of war North Korea could target not only US possessions in the Asia-Pacific, but also cities across North America.
Of course, Kim still could not attempt a first strike since the US possesses an overwhelming deterrent. And nothing suggests that Kim is suicidal, prepared to leave this world atop a radioactive funeral pyre in Pyongyang. However, if he believed his regime to be endangered, he could threaten to “unleash hell” and, unfortunately, deliver on that promise. And the result would be disaster for the United States.
Yet the administration is living in the past. President Joe Biden’s world is one in which the US defends everyone from everything. It is a continuation of the Cold War in which America’s oldest President grew up and entered politics. He can’t imagine anything changing, even though the Soviet Union is gone, Maoist madness has disappeared from China, and Washington’s allies and friends have recovered from World War II, which was nearly 80 years ago.
Hence, last month, after returning from the Korean summit, Daniel J Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, firmly enunciated the status quo. Acting as if nothing had changed since the Korean War ended in 1953, he declared: “The US commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea and to strengthen our combined defense posture consistent with the US-ROK mutual defense treaty is ironclad, including the US extended deterrence consistent to the ROK using the full range of US defense capabilities.”
Particularly important is Kritenbrink’s endorsement of extended deterrence, which means the willingness to fight a nuclear war for another nation. Washington made that promise for Europe in the 1950s, since the Soviet Union had superior conventional capabilities. America’s readiness to use nukes was believable since the US had intervened twice in Europe and could not easily concede the continent to a hegemonic rival. The same threat was credible on the Korean peninsula since the North did not possess nuclear weapons. Neither the USSR nor China would risk nuclear war over the peninsula, making extended deterrence essentially a freebie.
But no longer.
Pyongyang is very likely to have a full-fledged nuclear deterrent in the near future. Sooner than that, Kim will have a plausible deterrent, that is the possibility of hitting America with nuclear weapons. This will force future Presidents to decide how great a risk they are willing to run on behalf of the South.
Imagine a violent incident between Seoul and Pyongyang that escalates to war. As US forces begin to flow into the peninsula Kim sends a message to America’s President, warning that any drive north that threatens the communist regime would be met with nuclear strikes from the regime’s abundant arsenal. The threat seems plausible. Though Kim is not suicidal, he cannot count on rescue by China, as in 1950. Be that as it may, would any American President be so irresponsible as to risk bringing a nuclear holocaust upon his own nation?
South Koreans are not unaware of this possibility. The reluctance of Washington to directly confront Russia over Ukraine at least partially reflects fear of prompting escalation to nuclear weapons. Moscow has a much greater stake in the conflict and, as the inferior conventional power, relies on nukes to help maintain a military balance. It would be foolish and irresponsible for the administration to risk a clash that could spiral out of control.
Indeed, polls indicate that the American people are reluctant to go nuclear on behalf of other nations. Emily Sullivan of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs noted that while Americans were willing to use nuclear weapons if the US was attacked, writing, “In a March 25–28 Council poll, respondents were asked whether they would support the use of nuclear weapons in various situations. As part of the question, they were informed that the United States has promised to defend allies with nuclear weapons as part of its commitment to NATO. Even with this reminder, only 44 percent say they would support the use of nuclear weapons by the United States if a NATO ally is the victim of a nuclear attack, and support is even lower (31 percent) if the initial attack on the ally is chemical or biological in nature.”
The same rationale applies with even greater force to the ROK. South Korea is a valuable friend, with connections to America that go far beyond a military alliance. However, Washington’s chief responsibility is to protect and preserve the US—its people, territory, liberties, and prosperity. Nothing involving South Korea warrants Americans risking nuclear attack. Indeed, Washington’s ties with Europe are deeper than with the ROK; fewer Americans almost certainly would support using nuclear weapons on the latter’s behalf.
In any case, the South does not need America’s help. The ROK enjoys a massive edge over the North—more than 50-to-one in economic strength, two-to-one in population, and extraordinary advantages in technological prowess and international connections. Seoul also already devotes much greater effort to the military than do Japan or the Europeans (some of whom merely maintain essentially pretend militaries).
And there already is abundant South Korean support for creating a nuclear arsenal. Decades ago President Park Chung-hee began a nuclear program, which he abandoned only under pressure from the Nixon administration. The North’s nuclear efforts have stoked ROK support for development of a countervailing deterrent. Detailed a Chicago Council report earlier this year:
Once a topic for the political fringe, acquisition of nuclear weapons has become a mainstream feature of South Korea’s national security discourse. Public opinion polling over the last decade shows consistent majority support for nuclear possession. Leading political figures publicly discuss the idea of either developing a South Korean domestic nuclear weapons program or seeking the reintroduction of US tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula. In recent national elections, the conservative party included the return of US nuclear weapons in its policy platform. However, public attitudes around the distinctions between an independent nuclear arsenal and US deployment, as well as the potential implications of pursuing either option, are not well explored. Even though the nuclear issue is not prominent in campaigns ahead of South Korea’s March 2022 presidential election, the growing threats in the region and doubts about the security alliance with the United States make the nuclear question increasingly relevant.
Although allied proliferation might not be the best solution, in dealing with North Korea there are only second-best responses. Today Washington greets every new North Korean missile test with a whiny complaint, which makes America look weak. Since Pyongyang is willing to force its citizens to endure any hardship, additional sanctions would be ineffective; moreover, China and Russia can be counted on to veto any new UN penalties.
Absent a miraculous deus ex machina, the North will soon be able to destroy American cities. This requires Washington to consider the unthinkable: acquiescing to if not encouraging South Korean development of its own nuclear deterrent. All other options look not just worse, but potentially disastrous.
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, specializing in foreign policy and civil liberties.
He worked as special assistant to President Ronald Reagan and editor of the political magazine Inquiry.
He writes regularly for leading publications such as Fortune magazine, National Interest, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Times.
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David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
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Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
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