December 2023

Dear John,

Last week I attended the second meeting of states parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons at United Nations Headquarters in New York City. The idealism and commitment displayed by governmental and non-governmental actors alike contrasts starkly with the doubling and tripling down on reliance on nuclear weapons evident among the nuclear-armed states, none of which have joined the treaty. One theme of the meeting was the aim of "universalizing" the principles of the TPNW, not only through gaining more states as members but also through outreach and engagement efforts, for example involving scientists around the world in the work of the Scientific Advisory Group.

A development indicating increased U.S. reliance on nuclear arms was the October 12 release of the Report of the Congressional Commission on the U.S. Strategic Posture. It calls for reinforcing and building up U.S. nuclear forces based on the alarmist view that the U.S. could face simultaneous attacks by two peer nuclear adversaries, Russia and China. An LCNP paper authored by LCNP President Guy Quinlan presents a thorough critique. The paper argues that the course of action recommended by the Commission is unnecessary; would violate Non-Proliferation Treaty commitments; and would trigger a ruinously expensive new nuclear arms race which would be even more dangerous than past arms races due to the disruptive effect of new technologies – Artificial Intelligence, remote sensing, and more.

In the face of nuclear retrenchment, Russian nuclear threats, and a horrific Israel-Hamas conflict which risks becoming a wider war, LCNP is staying true to its core mission of subjecting nuclear weapons to the international rule of law. That was the theme of an all-day virtual November 8 conference in which LCNP was a key participant (see below).

I am glad to announce that LCNP will soon have a new Executive Director, Deepshikha Vijh, who will officially start in January. She has extensive non-governmental experience in nuclear policy and foreign policy, in the U.S. and in the UN and other multilateral settings, as well as an Oxford Ph.D. in International Relations. I can assure you that Deepshikha will bring both energy and knowledge to the job. Meanwhile, our previous Executive Director, Ariana Smith, is now in Geneva where she has begun a position with the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs. LCNP thanks Ariana for her three productive years of service.

As LCNP makes the transition to a new Executive Director in a very challenging environment, we need your financial support more than ever. So please do make an end of the year donation! If you prefer to donate by check, please mail it, this time only, to LCNP, PO Box 6366, Moraga, CA 94570.

With best wishes for the holidays,

John Burroughs, Senior Analyst

This conference, sponsored by the New York State Bar Association and other groups including LCNP, addressed the continuing and heightened dangers of nuclear war accentuated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and threats to use nuclear weapons. It featured knowledgeable speakers with a wide range of experience in government, the military, NGOs, academia, and think tanks, including several LCNP-affiliated experts. Topics included the risks associated with use of nuclear arms; the application of the law of armed conflict to such use, including the role of risk analysis; the law of threat and deterrence; and the role of international law in today’s world. You can view a video recording, broken into panel segments; see also Agenda, Speaker Bios, and Related Materials.

The conference concerned issues LCNP has been analyzing for decades. Notably, in Panel 2, speakers closely examined the application of the law of armed conflict to use of nuclear arms, with particular attention to requirements accepted by the US government, distinction and proportionality. The panel included US military lawyers Daniel Jones and Theodore Richard; Charles Moxley, professor (adj) at Fordham Law School, an LCNP Board member, and principal organizer of the conference; and David Koplow, professor at Georgetown Law.

In panel 4, chaired by LCNP advisor Jackie Cabasso, speakers examined whether threats to use nuclear weapons are barred by international law, an understudied topic that is gaining increased attention due to Russian threats in connection with its invasion of Ukraine. In opening remarks, LCNP Senior Analyst John Burroughs laid out the relevant principles supporting the illegality of nuclear threats. Other speakers included Dr. Eirini Giorgou of the International Committee of the Red Cross, who explained the committee’s developing view; and Allen Weiner of Stanford Law School, who discussed what he sees as difficulties with finding nuclear threats to be categorically illegal.

A closing panel on how to get involved featured several LCNP Board members: Jutta Bertram-Nothnagel, who outlined opportunities for engagement at the United Nations such as a cyber security working group; Jules Zacher, who talked about advocacy in Washington and Freedom of Information Act litigation; and Seth Shelden, UN liaison for the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.