Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:


"There are two educations. One should teach us how to make a living and the other how to live." 
- John Adams

The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled. 
- Plutarch

“Dare to begin! He who postpones living rightly is like the rustic who waits for the river to run out before he crosses.” 
- Horace

 


1. S. Korea, U.S. hold 2nd Nuclear Consultative Group meeting amid N. Korean threats

2. N. Korea's premier holds talks with visiting Russian governor

3. Joint Russia-China Military Flights Prompt Japanese, South Korean Fighter Scrambles

4. Diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. discuss N.K. spy satellite, human rights

5. 9 N. Korean defectors to receive cultural awards from unification minister

6.  New film '12.12: The Day' offers cautionary tale via story of 1979 military coup

7. South Korea's spy satellite vulnerable to North's jamming, cyberattacks

8. Liaoning Province police tell N. Korean defectors to “live quietly” to prevent forced repatriation

9. Amid imports from China, N. Korean rice prices continue gradual march downwards

10. New state-run uniform factories threaten small businesses (north Korea)

11. <Inside N. Korea>Bootleg liquor is an anti-state act The government launches harsh crackdowns, aims to monopolize distribution of alcohol and prevent shortages of grain

12. [ANALYSIS] North Korea claims human rights exist within its borders

13. Ex-USFK chief notes odds of misunderstanding leading to conflict in Korea

14. 'Progressive' versus retrogressive

15. Forging A U.S.-South Korea Alliance Powered By Chips, Batteries, And Clean Technologies

16. North Korea converting cargo plane into military aircraft, imagery suggests

17. S. Korea expresses 'stern' protest to China, Russia over air defense zone incursion





1. S. Korea, U.S. hold 2nd Nuclear Consultative Group meeting amid N. Korean threats


Excerpts:

Kim has told reporters that the NCG meeting will touch on efforts to establish extended deterrence in a "unitary" way -- an apparent reference to South Korea leveraging its conventional military assets for an integrated deterrence formula with the U.S.
Extended deterrence refers to the U.S.' commitment to using the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to defend its ally.


S. Korea, U.S. hold 2nd Nuclear Consultative Group meeting amid N. Korean threats | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · December 16, 2023

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, Dec. 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States kicked off a second session of the allies' key nuclear deterrence dialogue at the Pentagon near Washington on Friday, Seoul officials said, amid concerns over the possibility of North Korea launching yet another long-range missile this month.

Seoul's Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo and Maher Bitar, the U.S. National Security Council (NSC) coordinator for intelligence and defense policy led the latest session of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), a dialogue body designed to discuss nuclear and strategic planning issues.

The meeting came a day after Kim raised the possibility of Pyongyang firing an intercontinental ballistic missile this month -- a move that would further ratchet up tensions following its launch of a military reconnaissance satellite last month.

Kim has told reporters that the NCG meeting will touch on efforts to establish extended deterrence in a "unitary" way -- an apparent reference to South Korea leveraging its conventional military assets for an integrated deterrence formula with the U.S.

Extended deterrence refers to the U.S.' commitment to using the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to defend its ally.

The NCG was established under the Washington Declaration that President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden adopted during their summit in Washington in April as part of efforts to enhance the credibility of extended deterrence.

The inaugural session was held in Seoul in July, led by Kim and U.S. National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell and NSC Coordinator for Defense Policy and Arms Control Cara Abercrombie.


This photo, taken on Dec. 12, 2023, shows South Korea's Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo speaking during a press briefing in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. (Yonhap)

sshluck@yna.co.kr

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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · December 16, 2023



2. N. Korea's premier holds talks with visiting Russian governor


I am sure the Russian governor is grateful for the cheap Koean labor.


(LEAD) N. Korea's premier holds talks with visiting Russian governor | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · December 15, 2023

(ATTN: ADDS photo)

SEOUL, Dec. 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korean Premier Kim Tok-hun has held talks with the governor of Russia's far eastern region of Primorsky Krai, Pyongyang's state media said Friday, amid speculation that North Korea is seeking to send workers to Russia to earn much-needed hard currency.

Kim and Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of the Russian region that borders North Korea, met in a comradely and amicable atmosphere at the Mansudae Assembly Hall on Thursday, the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said, without elaborating.


North Korean Premier Kim Tok-hun (2nd from R) holds talks with Oleg Kozhemyako (center L), governor of Russia's far eastern region of Primorsky Krai, at the Mansudae Assembly Hall in Pyongyang on Dec. 14, 2023, in this photo released the next day by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Kozhemyako told a Russian news media outlet ahead of his visit that he will discuss ways to boost cooperation in the fields of tourism, trade and agriculture.

There is speculation that the two sides may discuss the possible dispatch of North Korean workers to Russia, a move that is banned under United Nations Security Council resolutions imposed due to Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

The National Intelligence Service, South Korea's spy agency, said Tuesday it has detected signs of North Korea seeking to send workers to Russia and is closely monitoring the situation.

Kozhemyako's visit came as the two nations have been strengthening their ties following the summit of the North's leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in September.


North Korea's External Economic Relations Minister Yun Jong-ho (4th from R) shakes hands with Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of Russia's far eastern region of Primorsky Krai, during their talks at the Mansudae Assembly Hall in Pyongyang on Dec. 12, 2023, in this photo released the next day by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · December 15, 2023





3. Joint Russia-China Military Flights Prompt Japanese, South Korean Fighter Scrambles



Probing and testing? For what effects?

Joint Russia-China Military Flights Prompt Japanese, South Korean Fighter Scrambles - USNI News

news.usni.org · by Dzirhan Mahadzir · December 14, 2023

A Russian Tupolev Tu-95 Bear off Japan. Japanese MoD Photo

Russia and China conducted a joint bomber flight over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea on Thursday, causing both South Korea and Japan to scramble fighter jets in response. On the same day, the defense chiefs of Italy, Japan and the U.K. signed a treaty in Tokyo to create a formal trilateral organization to manage and develop the Global Combat Air Programme – a next-generation stealth fighter aircraft to be fielded by 2035.

South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported that South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) stated that two Chinese and four Russian military aircraft were detected prior to entering South Korea’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East Sea (Sea of Japan) between 11:53 a.m. and 12:10 p.m. No violation of South Korean airspace occurred but the JCS stated that fighters were deployed to take “tactical measures” against any contingency. Japan’s Joint Staff Office (JSO) issued a release with a map showing the flight path of Russian and Chinese aircraft – which included bombers, fighters and specialist aircraft – as well as photographs taken by intercepting Japan Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) fighters.

The JSO’s release on Thursday stated that during that morning, two Chinese H-6 bombers entered the Sea of Japan from the East China Sea and joined up with two Russian Tu-95 bombers over the Sea of Japan, after which the four bombers conducted a long-distance flight to the East China Sea and back to the Sea of Japan. While over the Sea of Japan heading to the East China Sea, the bombers were joined by two presumed Russian fighters, according to the release.

In the East China Sea, two J-16s, a single presumed Chinese fighter and a flight of two presumed Chinese fighters joined and departed the bomber flights on separate occasions. When the Chinese bombers flew from the East China Sea to the Tsushima Strait on the return leg, they were joined by a Y-8 electronic warfare and two presumed Chinese fighters. After passing through the Tsushima Strait to enter the Sea of Japan, the Russian bombers were joined by a single Russian Su-35 fighter and a presumed Chinese fighter and, subsequently, two Russian Su-35 fighters flew with the Tu-95 bombers over the Sea of Japan. The JSO release went on to say that while the Russian bombers were flying a single Tu-142 maritime patrol aircraft around the Sea of Japan. Fighters of the JASDF Western Air District were scrambled in response, stated the JSO.

China’s Ministry of National Defense issued a short release on Thursday stating, “According to the annual cooperation plan between the Chinese and Russian militaries, on December 14, the two sides organized and implemented the 7th joint strategic air patrol in the relevant airspace of the Sea ofJapan and the East China Sea.” The Russian Ministry of Defence issued a longer release stating that Russian Aerospace Forces and People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) conducted another joint air patrol in the Asia-Pacific region. According to teh release the aircraft group consisted of Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers and H-6K strategic bombers. They carried out air patrols over the waters of the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. “At certain stages of the route, the strategic missile carriers were escorted by fighters from foreign countries. In the course of their missions, the aircraft of both countries acted strictly in accordance with the provisions of international law. There were no violations of the airspace of foreign states,” said the release.

Russia and China last conducted a joint bomber flight in June, while a previous joint flight in November 2022 coincided with a meeting of the Quad alliance in Tokyo. Thursday’s flight coincided with a treaty signed by Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara and U.K. Secretary of Defence Grant Shapps establishing a formal trilateral organization – GCAP International Government Organisation – to manage and develop the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP). The treaty must be ratified by the respective parliaments of the three countries, though it is not expected this will be an issue. A Japan Ministry of Defense release stated that three ministers also welcomed the progress made by industry partners to launch the joint business construct, which will be an industry counterpart of GIGO, to support capable, affordable and timely program delivery, including the 2035 in service date.

The GIGO headquarters and corresponding joint business construct will be located in the UK and, to ensure and foster an effective and well-balanced partnership among the three countries, the first chief executive of the GCAP Agency will be from Japan and the first chief executive officer of the joint business construct will be from Italy. A BAE release on Thursday stated that discussions on the future joint industrial construct to deliver GCAP are continuing, with representatives from Leonardo, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and BAE Systems – who are part of a collaboration agreement – meeting recently in Tokyo.

On Thursday, during a visit to Yokosuka naval base, Shapps announced that the Royal Navy carrier strike group will visit Japan as part of its 2025 Indo-Pacific deployment. The visit was expected, given the Queen Elizabeth CSG, which deployed to the Indo-Pacific in 2021, also visited Japan. Japan has been keen to draw on the U.K.’s experience operating carrier-based F-35Bs as it prepared to operate its own F-35Bs off its Izumo class destroyer carriers. A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force delegation embarked on carrier HMS Prince of Wales (R09) for two weeks to observe F-35B trials conducted by the carrier. Prince of Wales is expected to carry out the 2025 deployment.

Related

news.usni.org · by Dzirhan Mahadzir · December 14, 2023


4. Diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. discuss N.K. spy satellite, human rights


Human rights upfront. It has put Kim on the defensive.


Diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. discuss N.K. spy satellite, human rights | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 15, 2023

SEOUL, Dec. 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korean and U.S. officials discussed North Korea's threats and its recent publication of its so-called human rights white paper, Seoul's foreign ministry said Friday.

Chun Young-hee, director general for the Korean Peninsula peace regime, exchanged views on these developments with Jung Pak, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, during a meeting Wednesday, the ministry said.

They both expressed concerns that the North has been ratcheting up tensions against the South since the launch of its military reconnaissance satellite last month.

They reemphasized their commitment to close coordination to manage the situation on the Korean Peninsula in a stable manner, the ministry said.

Chun also voiced concern that North Korea is using the human rights issue to propagate its nuclear and missile agendas.

North Korea claimed its people are freely enjoying genuine human rights in a white paper issued earlier this week on the 75th anniversary of the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights by the United Nations.

North Korea also said it could concentrate its efforts on economic development and improvement of the people's living standard thanks to its powerful deterrence for self-defense, in an apparent reference to its nuclear and missile programs.

North Korea has long been accused of grave human rights abuses, ranging from holding political prisoners in concentration camps to committing torture and carrying out public executions.

The U.N. Commission of Inquiry issued a report in 2014 after a year-long probe, saying North Korean leaders are responsible for "widespread, systematic and gross" violations of human rights.


Chun Young-hee (R), director general for the Korean Peninsula peace regime at Seoul's foreign ministry, shakes hands with Jung Pak, U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, ahead of their meeting in Seoul on Dec. 13, 2023, in this photo provided by the foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 15, 2023



5. 9 N. Korean defectors to receive cultural awards from unification minister


Excellent initiative.  This should certainly be a message as part of our holistic, comprehensive, and sophisticated information campaign so the Koreans in the north can be inspired by these escapees and their success.


9 N. Korean defectors to receive cultural awards from unification minister | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · December 15, 2023

SEOUL, Dec. 15 (Yonhap) -- The unification ministry in charge of inter-Korean affairs said Friday it will confer awards on nine North Korean defectors for their contributions to the arts and culture sector.

The ministry said a certificate of commendation, the first of its kind to be presented by the unification minister to defector-turned-artists, aims to recognize their contributions as well as promote their artworks across South Korean society.

Among the nine recipients are Kang Chun-hyok, a rapper-painter who has raised awareness on unification among the younger generation, and Sol Song-a, who has written a novel shedding light on human rights of North Korean women.

The award ceremony is set to take place at the inter-Korean cultural integration center in western Seoul on Saturday.


This undated file photo shows North Korean defector-turned-artist Kang Chun-hyok. (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · December 15, 2023




6. New film '12.12: The Day' offers cautionary tale via story of 1979 military coup


I was hoping this film would be on my Korean Airlines flight from Manila to Incheon. I doubt it will be on the flight from Incheon to Dulles in a few hours. I look forward to seeing this film sometime. Hopefully it will be released on Netflix.


Wise words from my friend Chun In Bum:


It seemed an easy win for Chun but by May, the Korea citizens demanded a return of basic freedoms that culminated in the student demonstrations in the city of Gwangju. The Korean military used full force to intimidate the demonstrators but it spiraled into a full-fledged armed revolt that lasted 11 days with an official death toll of 165 civilians, 23 military and four police deaths, as well as over 3,000 injured. Amid the ensuing eight years of authoritarian rule South Korea did make progress, such as hosting the 1988 Olympics, generating significant economic growth and the transfer of political power. But despite these achievements, the illegitimate nature of the Chun regime and the subsequent administration still remained.
The film reminds us that taking power by unlawful means can never be condoned. It also reminds us of the heroism of a few that tried to prevent this from happening no matter how futile. Most importantly, a coup in Korea can never happen again.


New film '12.12: The Day' offers cautionary tale via story of 1979 military coup

m-koreatimes-co-kr.cdn.ampproject.org

By Chun In-bum


Last month, a movie titled "12.12: The Day" was released. It is about the military coup-d'état of Dec. 12, 1979, that eventually led to Chun Doo-hwan becoming president of the Republic of Korea in 1980. As of the time of writing, more than seven million Koreans have seen the movie, which is titled "Seoul's Spring" in Korean.

Just two months short of the coup, on Oct. 29, Kim Jae-gyu, then director of Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) murdered the South Korean President Park Chung-hee and his Secret Service chief, which originated from a vendetta against the Chief of Security and the social unrest at the time. This murder was followed by the declaration of martial law with full powers going to the Army Chief of Staff Jeong Seung-hwa.

Although, there was no direct evidence showing Gen. Jeong having any involvement or knowledge of the incident, Jeong was in an adjacent building upon the invitation of the KCIA director when the shots were fired. This was good enough to prompt suspicion and speculation that Jeong was part of the original assassination plot. Especially by Major General Chun, who, as the Commander of the Security Command, was charged to investigate the assassination.

Another more important aspect was the deep-rooted rivalries within the South Korean military between the old guard, those who originally formed the Korean Army and fought during the Korean War, and the new generation, especially officers who graduated from the Korea Military Academy. The rift soon became evident when Jeong wanted to relieve Chun and reassign him to the eastern front.

Chun, who was an ambitious and charismatic leader, was able to utilize the full advantage of his supporters assigned as commanders of Combat units around or near Seoul. Particularly, the commanders of the three brigades of the Capital Defense Command that were responsible for protecting the president were led by Chun's allies.

Chun and his cronies made sure that the commanders of opposing units were preoccupied and incorporated the support of unit commanders that could oppose their move. Additionally, Chun's Security Command, which was created in part to prevent coups, used their authority to monitor and legally eavesdrop on all military communication, to ensure that resistance would be minimal at best. In the early evening of Dec. 12, 1979, the Military Police under Chun's control attempted to arrest the Army Chief of Staff Jeong on charges of bribery and suspicion with the assassination. This was where the first shots were fired and Jeong was in their custody.

Without the Chief of the Army, the rest of the Korean Army General Staff gathered at the Ministry of National Defense, which had the closest fortified bunker. The Army General Staff tried to persuade Chun to give up his attempts but to no avail. The Commander of the ROK Special Forces and the Commander of the Capital Defense Command attempted to rally their troops but they were outnumbered. The Special Forces Commander was arrested by his own men and with less than a hundred men the Capital Defense Commander had no chance to overturn the coup. Chun's units stormed and occupied Army Headquarters and the Ministry of National Defense. Gun fire was heard in the center of Seoul. During the arrest of the Special Forces Commander, Major Kim O-rang, who was his executive officer, was given a chance to save himself from the onslaught. Kim refused and was killed while protecting his commander.

By dawn of Dec. 13, Chun was able to subdue all resistance. The coup could have been thwarted many times during that night but Chun was able to secure the Korean military and quickly consolidated the rest of the Korean government. Three men laid dead and scores more injured.

It seemed an easy win for Chun but by May, the Korea citizens demanded a return of basic freedoms that culminated in the student demonstrations in the city of Gwangju. The Korean military used full force to intimidate the demonstrators but it spiraled into a full-fledged armed revolt that lasted 11 days with an official death toll of 165 civilians, 23 military and four police deaths, as well as over 3,000 injured. Amid the ensuing eight years of authoritarian rule South Korea did make progress, such as hosting the 1988 Olympics, generating significant economic growth and the transfer of political power. But despite these achievements, the illegitimate nature of the Chun regime and the subsequent administration still remained.

The film reminds us that taking power by unlawful means can never be condoned. It also reminds us of the heroism of a few that tried to prevent this from happening no matter how futile. Most importantly, a coup in Korea can never happen again.

Chun In-bum (truechun@naver.com) served as a lieutenant general of the ROK Army and commander of Special Forces Korea.

m-koreatimes-co-kr.cdn.ampproject.org



7. South Korea's spy satellite vulnerable to North's jamming, cyberattacks


On the chess board of "spy versus spy" I am sure each country is trying to do this to others' space vehicles, some with greater success than others. I wonder what we can do to north Korea's satellite if we chose to?


South Korea's spy satellite vulnerable to North's jamming, cyberattacks

The Korea Times · December 15, 2023

In this image from video provided by SpaceX, South Korea launches its first military spy satellite from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California., Dec. 1, using SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket. It was the first of five spy satellites South Korea plans to send into space by 2025 under a contract with SpaceX. The launch took place a little over a week after North Korea claimed to put its spy satellite into orbit for the first time as tensions rise between the rivals. AP-Yonhap

Anti-jamming technology, enhanced cybersecurity measures necessary

By Kang Hyun-kyung

The two Koreas are pitted against each other as their first reconnaissance satellites traverse the space around Earth in low orbit, attempting to detect each other's military installations and weapons developments since they were launched.

However, their capabilities are vastly different. South Korea’s space vehicle is considered far more sophisticated than North Korea’s.

South Korea’s spy satellite has a 0.3-meter spatial resolution, which means it can detect objects as small as 30 cm.

Compared to this, North Korea’s Malligyong-1, launched on Nov. 21, 11 days earlier than the South Korean satellite, is believed to have just 3 meters of spatial resolution, which makes it quite difficult to be used for military purposes.

Despite the North Korean satellite’s somewhat outdated technology, it’s too premature to conclude that South Korea is the winner.

North Korea has a set of lethal measures that can disrupt the operations of South Korea’s satellites. The North has tested their efficacy several times, disrupting communications and suspending air and sea traffic in the South.

“Various measures are available to incapacitate the satellites,” retired major Park Jae-wan told The Korea Times.

“You can even destroy a satellite by using force or incapacitate it by launching cyberattacks or jamming communications between ground stations and the satellite.”

Park, an adjunct professor at Kookmin University Graduate School of Politics and Leadership, said GPS jamming, cyberattacks and blinding satellites with lasers are some of the known measures that can suspend target satellites.

In outer space, he said that there are tens of thousands of space vehicles as several countries, including the U.S., Russia and China, have put their satellites into orbit since the world’s first satellite, the Sputnik 1, reached orbit in 1957.

“People working at ground stations may not know what went wrong with their satellites, partly because problems occur for various reasons. On top of interference by enemies, intrinsic flaws of the satellites can also be a source of the problem,” he said. “In space, there are many satellites that are drifting into space and out of operations. North Korea’s first and second satellites, namely the KMS-3 Unit 2 and KMS-4, which were launched into orbit in 2012 and 2016, respectively, are two exemplary cases that became space debris as they didn’t function properly as military satellites.”

KMS is an acronym for Kwangmyongsong or “guiding star.” The KMS-3 Unit 2 is the first satellite that North Korea launched into orbit, which was then followed by the KMS-4 years later. Although they entered orbit, they were incapable of communicating with North Korea’s ground stations.

In a report, titled “North Korea’s Space Capabilities During Kim Jong-un Regime and Its Implications for South Korea,” released on Dec. 3, the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) identified the North’s anti-satellite capabilities as a pressing security threat to South Korea.

“North Korea possesses dozens of vehicles, as well as portable devices which can be used to create GPS jamming in South Korea,” the report said. If employed on the satellites equipped with the synthetic aperture radar, the INSS said that the resolution of the images taken by the target satellites can be degraded.

The INSS report warned that North Korea’s anti-satellite capabilities, if combined with its nuclear bomb technology, could create catastrophic security consequences for South Korea as well as the United States.

In case North Korea was to detonate nuclear bombs in high-altitude airspace or low Earth orbit, the report explained that an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) would be created and consequently, could interfere with South Korea’s satellites.

A handout photo made available by SpaceX via South Korea Defense Ministry shows a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying South Korea's first military spy satellite lifting off from US Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, Dec. 1. EPA-Yonhap

North Korea was able to build its EMP threat with the help of Russia.

According to Peter Vincent Pry, the former intelligence officer at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), North Korea has a non-nuclear radio frequency weapon (RFW), dubbed the “EMP Cannon,” which was purchased from Russia. The North used the EMP Cannon to impose an “electromagnetic blockade” on air traffic to Seoul, he said.

“Non-nuclear EMP attacks on airliners flying to Seoul threatened their GPS and control systems, forcing the suspension of flights to the city. The repeated attacks by RFW also disrupted communications and the operation of automobiles in several cities in December 2010 and April and May 2011,” he said in a 2021 report.

North Korea resumed its anti-satellite attacks in 2012.

The North jammed the military communications running through South Korea’s communications satellite, the Koreasat 5.

According to South Korea’s military, a powerful signal sent from a location near North Korea’s capital had caused interference to military communications on the Koreasat 5 satellite. Launched in 2006, the satellite carries a commercial and military payload.

Another instance of North Korea's interference with South Korea’s satellite occurred in 2016. The North jammed the GPS navigation systems near its border with South Korea. About 280 South Korean ships suffered as their GPS signals disappeared from time to time and many were forced to return to their ports.

North Korea’s anti-satellite capabilities have gained fresh attention from the South after U.S. Space Command and North Korea recently exchanged barbs.

Sheryll Klinkel, chief of current operations and public affairs at U.S. Space Command, said that the U.S. could destroy North Korea’s reconnaissance satellite.

“Joint Force Space Operations could deny an adversary’s space and counter-space capabilities and services using a variety of reversible and irreversible means, reducing the effectiveness and lethality of adversary forces across all domains,” she was quoted by Radio Free Asia as saying in a report released on Nov. 29. However, she didn’t explain in great detail about the measures the U.S. could take to interfere with North Korea’s satellite.

The news report irritated North Korea.

The North’s Central News Agency said on Dec. 2 that it will consider any interference with its satellite a declaration of war.

“In case the U.S. tries to violate the legitimate territory of a sovereign state by weaponizing the latest technologies illegally and unjustly, the DPRK will consider taking responsive action measures for self-defense to undermine or destroy the viability of the U.S. spy satellites,” North Korea’s unnamed defense ministry spokesperson said.

DPRK is an acronym of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the official name of North Korea.

U.S. experts said North Korea’s threats to destroy U.S. satellites are just propagandistic bluster.

“I don’t think we should put an awful lot of credence in this idea that they are going to take our satellites,” Vann Van Diepen, former principal deputy assistant secretary of U.S. State Department, said in a program hosted by the Voice of America.

“Could North Korea put a nuclear weapon up in proximity to a satellite? Yes, probably. But the cost-benefit of that doesn’t work out very well for them.”

The Korea Times · December 15, 2023

8. Liaoning Province police tell N. Korean defectors to “live quietly” to prevent forced repatriation


A humanitarian act for not forcibly repatriating them or simply a threat to keep them in line? I think it is obviously the latter.


Note 'defector management."


Excerpts:

According to a source on Dec. 6, members of the Ministry of Public Security visited a village in Liaoning Province in late November and summoned North Korean women known to be living with Chinese husbands to the local police precinct. The police told the assembled women that “defector management will be managed by provincial law enforcement going forward” and emphasized that the women “must not leave their area of residence without first informing law enforcement.”
“While there have been instances in the past of North Korean women being called in for a meeting at the local village precinct, this was the first time that a meeting had been directly carried out by police from the provincial branch of the Ministry of Public Security,” the source explained.



Liaoning Province police tell N. Korean defectors to “live quietly” to prevent forced repatriation

At a recent meeting between defectors and police in the province, Chinese officials explicitly mentioned the mass repatriation of North Korean defectors in late October

By Jeong Tae Joo - 2023.12.15 3:00pm

dailynk.com

Liaoning Province police tell N. Korean defectors to “live quietly” to prevent forced repatriation | Daily NK English

A photo taken of the North Korea - China border in 2014. (Lawrence Wang, Flickr, Creative Commons)

Police in Liaoning Province recently summoned North Korean women living with Chinese men to discuss their status in the country. The move suggests that Chinese police are aware of the current atmosphere of unease in the defector community following the recent mass repatriations. 

According to a source on Dec. 6, members of the Ministry of Public Security visited a village in Liaoning Province in late November and summoned North Korean women known to be living with Chinese husbands to the local police precinct. The police told the assembled women that “defector management will be managed by provincial law enforcement going forward” and emphasized that the women “must not leave their area of residence without first informing law enforcement.”

“While there have been instances in the past of North Korean women being called in for a meeting at the local village precinct, this was the first time that a meeting had been directly carried out by police from the provincial branch of the Ministry of Public Security,” the source explained.

Notably, law enforcement officials at the meeting explicitly mentioned the mass repatriation of defectors that happened in late October.

One police officer told the assembled women that “while the fact that we sent a number of North Koreans back to their home country last month should be a warning to those of you who remain here, please rest assured that so long as you don’t cause any problems and continue to live quietly as you are now, you will not be forcibly sent back.”

Many North Koreans illegally residing in China have been on edge following the recent forcible repatriation of hundreds of North Korean defectors detained in Chinese prisons. Chinese police appear to have held the meeting to assuage these fears and once again warn the women that they must not leave their areas of residence without first receiving permission from the authorities.

The police also announced they would be collecting the women’s personal information, including blood type and fingerprints. This sort of identifying information is likely to be used to further control these women in the future.

After returning the women to their houses, the police then separately called their Chinese husbands into the precinct to gather and record the men’s overall evaluation of their defector wives, as well as information about the women’s recent movements and inclinations.

The source added that the Chinese husbands were also informed that incidents related to defectors, if sufficiently severe, may be handed over to China’s Ministry of State Security in accordance with China’s newly revised anti-espionage law, which took effect on July 1 this year.

Police explained that if defectors left their areas of residence, engaged in crime, or caused any other serious problems, the matter would be handled by anti-espionage authorities and that law enforcement would decide whether the woman would be forcibly repatriated or not. However, in less severe cases, police assured the men that the Chinese families could intercede to vouch for the women and avoid repatriation.

Despite the meeting’s intentions, the source concluded that the gathering only stoked unease. “While the police tried to allay the women’s concerns by telling them that everything would be fine and they wouldn’t be sent back to North Korea so long as they didn’t commit any crimes, the police ultimately only caused more worries by bringing up the anti-espionage law to their husbands.”

Translated by Rose Adams. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of sources who live inside North Korea, China and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.  

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com


9. Amid imports from China, N. Korean rice prices continue gradual march downwards


China can of course influence the north Korean economy.


Amid imports from China, N. Korean rice prices continue gradual march downwards

Even as grain prices have fallen in recent months, the KPW-USD exchange rate has been trending upwards since September

By Seulkee Jang - 2023.12.15 4:37pm

dailynk.com

Amid imports from China, N. Korean rice prices continue gradual march downwards | Daily NK English

In this undated photo, North Koreans can be seen selling goods on the street in the North Korea-China border region. (Kang Dong Wan, Donga University)

North Korean rice prices, which had already been declining due to recent imports of food from China, are continuing their slow march downwards in December. 

According to Daily NK’s regular survey of market prices, one kilogram of rice was selling for KPW 4,700 at one market in Pyongyang as of Dec. 10. This represents a slight drop from the price of KPW 4,740 recorded in the capital two weeks prior (Nov. 25). 

Prices were similar in Sinuiju, North Pyongan Province, at KPW 4,720 per kilogram. This price represents a minor decrease of KPW 30 compared to Nov. 25 (KPW 4,750). 

Hyesan, however, experienced a steeper drop in prices as rice fell from KPW 5,000 to KPW 4,830 per kilogram, a 3.4% decrease over a period of just two weeks. 

This downward trend in prices has been more noticeable for commodities such as corn. Corn prices in Sinuiju, for example, fell from KPW 2,000 to KPW 1,900. Not only is this a 5% drop within two weeks, but it is also the first time that corn prices have dipped below the KPW 2,000 mark in over two years (since November 2021). 

Meanwhile, corn prices in Pyongyang fell at a level similar to Sinuiju, and one kilogram currently sells for KPW 2,000.

As with rice, the decline in grain prices was particularly pronounced in the city of Hyesan. Corn prices in Hyesan fell 8.7% over the last two weeks, dropping from KPW 2,300 to KPW 2,100 as of Dec. 10.

The overall downward trend in grain prices can be attributed to a combination of both North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s increase in grain imports and the new crops entering markets following the conclusion of the fall harvest. The steeper drop in prices in Hyesan compared to other regions is likely tied to the food imports passing through custom houses in Yanggang Province. 

Daily NK reported in late November that imports of rice, cooking oil, and other food products from China have been entering North Korea through the Hyesan customs house. 

Imports passing through customs houses in Yanggang Province, North Hamgyong Province, and elsewhere along the China-North Korea border remain limited in volume, but a portion of these imports appear to have made their way into markets, leading to a fall in grain prices.

Even as grain prices have fallen in recent months, the KPW-USD exchange rate has been trending upwards since September.

As of Dec. 10, the KPW-USD exchange rate in Pyongyang was KPW 8,500 to the dollar, a 1.2% rise compared to Nov. 25. The exchange rate rose a similar amount in other regions, including Sinuiju and Hyesan.

Demand for US dollars may be driven by internal indicators that trade is expanding in the new year. Earlier this month, Daily NK reported that the North Korean authorities had begun issuing entry visas to Chinese traders, investors, and technicians.

By contrast, the KPW-RMB exchange rate has been on a slow but steady decline. As of Dec. 10, the KPW-RMB exchange rate fell a consistent 1.6% across regions compared to two weeks prior. Daily NK’s survey recorded the exchange rate at KPW 1,200 to the yuan in Pyongyang, KPW 1,210 in Sinuiju, and KPW 1,210 in Hyesan.

Translated by Rose Adams. Edited by Robert Lauler. 

Daily NK works with a network of sources who live inside North Korea, China and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.  

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

Seulkee Jang

Seulkee Jang is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. Please direct any questions about her articles to dailynk@uni-media.net.

dailynk.com



10. New state-run uniform factories threaten small businesses (north Korea)


Kim does not like small business (e.g., growing economic independence)yet it is the small business that provides the safety or relief valve for the people as they suffer from inept party policies and control.


New state-run uniform factories threaten small businesses

Since the 1990s, small clothing makers in North Korea had filled a gap in school uniform output.

By Ahn Chang Gyu for RFA Korean

2023.12.14

rfa.org

North Korea is building new clothing factories due to increased demand for school uniforms, but the factories threaten to kill off a cottage industry of small, often family-run school uniform makers, residents told Radio Free Asia.

More school uniforms are necessary because authorities are pushing development of STEM education nationwide, and new schools to train new teachers are opening in each province. Students attending the new schools must wear uniforms that match their peers, and there simply are not enough to go around.

One such factory was completed in October in the northeastern port city of Chongjin.

“It is true that the construction of a school uniform factory is a measure for students, but some residents are anxious,” a resident of Chongjin’s surrounding North Hamgyong province told RFA Korean on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

“There are many people in Chongjin who make money by making various clothes using Chinese fabric,” she said. "They hire several women to process clothes. It’s like running a small factory.”

North Korean school children walk near the portraits of late North Korean leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun mausoleum in Pyongyang, July 25, 2013. (Ed Jones/AFP)

North Korea had state-run clothing factories that produce school uniforms in the past, but following the 1994-1998 famine and economic collapse, many of these factories lacked the raw materials and labor necessary to make the uniforms.

Since that era, rapid inflation meant that most families could not survive on the salary provided by government-assigned jobs, so many North Korean families had to start businesses trading goods and services in the local marketplace. These days, most families make their livelihood this way.

With school uniforms no longer being pumped out in factories, entrepreneurial residents took it upon themselves to fill the void in the market.

But now the government’s new factories threaten to kill their market share.

Anxious outlook

It isn’t only the small business owners that are worried about the new factories. Their workers are also afraid.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, imported fabrics and zippers from China were hard to come by, and the uniform makers had to temporarily shut down their operations.

“Women who used to work steadily [making uniforms] have been unable to make money because their work has stopped for the past three years when the border was blocked,” the resident said. “They are afraid of the completion of the school uniform factory.”

The new factories will make more than only uniforms. So people making other kinds of cloth goods are also worried, the resident said.

“Last year, the Chongjin Bag Factory was also opened,” she said. “Many people will lose their livelihood due to the school uniform factory and the bag factory.”

In addition to the Chongjin uniform factory, another school uniform factory was recently completed in the city of Rason, about 100 kilometers (62 miles) away.

“They were built by the province itself without central support,” a resident there told RFA. “Clothes processing equipment, such as cutting machines, sewing machines, and ironing machines, were brought in from China by the provincial trade bureau.”

He said that the province rushed to open these factories and they are not yet completely finished.

“This is because the completion is delayed compared to other provinces,” he said. “Everything is a regional competition.”

Clothing produced by the state-run factories is generally lower quality, so residents may still want to buy their uniforms from the private makers, the he said.

In April, at the start of the school year, students were given factory-made uniforms said to be gifts from the country’s leader Kim Jong Un, the second resident said.

“[They] looked good, but the quality was pathetic,” he said. "Although there are school uniforms given by the government, there are many parents whose children are begging them to buy the nicer school uniforms sold at the market,” the source pointed out.

Translated by Leejin J. Chung. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.

rfa.org



11. <Inside N. Korea>Bootleg liquor is an anti-state act The government launches harsh crackdowns, aims to monopolize distribution of alcohol and prevent shortages of grain


Maybe this is what will cause a rebellion in the north. (note sarcasm)


<Inside N. Korea>Bootleg liquor is an anti-state act The government launches harsh crackdowns, aims to monopolize distribution of alcohol and prevent shortages of grain

asiapress.org

(File Photo) The clear liquid inside the plastic bottle sold on the street is probably home-made alcohol. The alcohol content is reportedly around 25 degrees. Taken in the suburbs of Pyongyang in September 2008.

Starting this autumn, North Korean authorities began calling the manufacturing of homemade alcohol an “anti-state act” and launched a major crackdown on producers. As a result, the price of alcohol has skyrocketed, and there are now alcohol producers who are trying to avoid crackdowns by the authorities by manufacturing alcohol deep in mountains or in remote areas. (KANG Ji-won / CHO Wui-song)

◆ Order handed down to neighborhood watch units says that alcohol production is an “anti-state act” that helps the enemies’ sanctions against N. Korea

In mid-November, a reporting partner in Yanggang Province told ASIAPRESS that the authorities had handed down an order saying that there is a complete ban on illegal alcohol manufacturing, which they referred to as an “anti-state act.”

“The authorities handed down the order on November 4 saying that because most (homemade alcohols) are made of corn, the act of manufacturing alcohol with grain supplies is an anti-state act that supports the enemies’ sanctions on the country.”

As this suggests, the reason the authorities are reacting so sensitively to the illicit manufacturing of alcohol is because they believe that the producers’ use of grains, which the government has recently moved to intensify control over, is a waste and serves as a threat to the country’s already short supply of food.

According to the reporting partner, agencies tasked with cracking down on illegally brewed alcohol informed neighborhood watch units that anyone found to be illegally producing alcohol will face at least three months at a short-term forced labor camp to show that the government does not forgive anyone who makes money from producing alcohol from grains.

The reporting partner said that the government made several arrests to show it means business: two members of street-level enforcer teams who failed to stop the production of homebrewed alcohol after receiving bribes were punished, while two officials working at a city construction office were fired for secretly acquiring 10 liters of illegally brewed alcohol.

*Neighborhood watch units are North Korea's lowest administrative units and are typically made up of 20-30 households.

*A "forced labor brigade” is a "short-term forced labor camp" where those who are deemed to have disturbed the social order, disobeyed the authorities, or committed minor crimes are detained without judicial procedures and sentenced to forced labor for up to one year. These camps are in cities and counties throughout the country and are managed by the security bureau (police).

*Street level enforcer teams are mobilized on a temporary basis to conduct surveillance and crackdowns on people to ensure they abide by social norms.

*City construction offices are North Korean government agencies tasked with managing construction projects and maintaining and repairing buildings.

(File Photo) Domestically-made soju and vodka were being sold at a ‘convenience store’ run by a local cooperative. Taken in Pyongyang in September 2011 by Koo Gwang-ho (ASIAPRESS)

◆ Two reasons why the Kim Jong-un government is harshly cracking down on illegal alcohol

Even in the past, North Korean authorities conducted crackdowns on illegally produced alcohol; however, there appears to be two major reasons why the government has moved to take unprecedentedly strong action against alcohol producers. The first reason is, as mentioned before, the concern that the use of corn for alcohol will damage the government’s efforts to distribute and monopolize the country’s already lacking food supplies. In short, the government intends to monopolize the supply and management of food and is aiming to prevent state food supplies from being used by illegal alcohol producers.

The second reason is that the Kim Jong-un regime aims to monopolize control over the distribution of consumer goods, an effort that has continued since the start of the pandemic. In other words, the regime’s new policy is to exert comprehensive control over the production, transport, storage, and sales of consumer goods.

As all this suggests, the government has revealed its desire to prevent individual business people from managing the production, distribution and sale of popular consumer items such as alcohol. This can be evidenced by the fact that the regime cracks down hard on illegal producers of alcohol but continues to allow the legal sale of alcohol at state-run stores and markets.

◆ People are discontented by rising alcohol prices due to crackdowns

According to the reporting partner, one bottle of illegally produced alcohol has skyrocketed in price from 1,800 won to 3,000 won due to intense crackdowns by the authorities. A bottle of alcohol sold legally, meanwhile, is still expensive, going from 3,500 to 20,000 won. All of this has led to growing discontent among ordinary consumers, the reporting partner said.

“The alcohol sold by the government is so expensive that it is difficult to buy, and the authorities are cracking down hard on other means of obtaining alcohol. I heard that in early November, a store was robbed in one of the city’s districts, with the thieves taking all of the alcohol on display.”

*1,000 North Korean won is about 158 South Korean won.

The reporting partner said that there’s been a rise in the number of women drinking alcohol after the intensified crackdowns; perhaps as a result, the Socialist Women’s Union of Korea recently emphasized in lectures and criticism sessions that drinking alcohol causes all sorts of diseases and even negatively influences the education of children.

* The Socialist Women’s Union is a social organization made up of mainly housewives.

◆ Demand for alcohol doesn’t fall despite crackdowns…people still continue to produce homemade brews

With the increase in crackdowns on illegal alcohol production, the push-and-pull between ordinary people and the authorities is growing in intensity. The crackdowns have led to an increase in demand for homemade alcohol and consequently a rise in prices, and some people have taken advantage of this situation to earn money.

Some people brewing alcohol illegally in the mountains and remote agricultural areas are selling their products on the sly to people they know. The authorities finally moved to respond to these sorts of secret transactions: anyone who reports an instance of someone selling illegally brewed alcohol will get five kilograms of corn as a reward.

“The government is not providing the reward; rather, officials give confiscated alcohol-making devices and corn to those who file the reports. After the order was handed down, people facing economic difficulties are going around trying to sniff out the smell of yeast, so nobody is even thinking about brewing alcohol on the sly.”

That being said, some illegal producers of alcohol are reducing the risks to their businesses by receiving payment or corn first and then making and distributing their alcohol. In short, the push-and-pull between the government, which aims to monopolize sales of alcohol, and ordinary people who want cheap sources of alcohol to drink, continues.

※ASIAPRESS communicates with reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.

asiapress.org


12. [ANALYSIS] North Korea claims human rights exist within its borders


Another indication of the pressure the regime feels when we take a human rights upfront approach.


[ANALYSIS] North Korea claims human rights exist within its borders

The Korea Times · December 15, 2023

This photo, released on Dec. 5 by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, shows children raising their hands to salute during an event in Pyongyang, North Korea. Yonhap

But experts say concept and purpose differ from universal norm

By Jung Min-ho

North Korea claimed, in a white paper on human rights released earlier this week, that its people enjoy “genuine human rights” and denounced the U.S. and other countries in the West for their failures in that area.

Citing the results published by a research society, Pyongyang’s official Korean Central News Agency said the dignity and basic rights of humans, enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, are being violated in those nations, where “social evils are rampant” such as “racism and police brutality.”

Speaking to The Korea Times on Friday, an expert said the publication of such a report ― for the first time since 2014, according to officials in Seoul ― has two implications that should not be overlooked: it suggests that the very concept and purpose of “human rights” in North Korea are fundamentally different from those universally acknowledged; and that the regime, a notorious violator of human rights, would rather hide its human rights abuses with lies rather than deny the existence of such rights.

“The human rights we know transcend borders and cultures. It is the rights we are all born with as human beings. In North Korea, they exist for and by the regime ― the rights a ‘good socialist country’ allows and protects,” said Kang Chae-yeon, a North Korean refugee-turned scholar at the National Institute for Unification Education. “In the North, there is no concept that any rights could exist beyond the sovereignty of a state.”

A vast majority of North Korean escapees say they have never heard of human rights before their escape. That’s because, to the regime, universal rights pose a risk and are not taught in school for that reason, she added.

On a positive note, the release of such reports also suggests that North Korea is nonetheless self-conscious of how it looks to the rest of the world and, therefore, international pressure on the issue could result in the actual improvement of human rights there, experts said.

“If you look at the human rights documents that North Korea sent to international organizations such as the U.N., it is depicted as a utopia where there is no abuse of rights, in contrast to its starkly different reality. This ironically shows that it is conscious of how it is perceived by the international community,” said Lee Ji-yoon, an activist at Citizens’ Alliance for North Korean Human Rights, a Seoul-based NGO.

She believes that the establishment of the North Korean human rights research society, a little-known organization that published the white paper, was part of an international pact or treaty Pyongyang signed in its effort to present itself as a normal country.

All that means making a difference in the lives of ordinary North Koreans isn’t impossible as the regime would pay attention to the voices from other countries even though it may not make systematic changes immediately, she said.

“With that in mind, we should make the most of all the opportunities given to ask questions about North Korea’s human rights situation directly to its officials, such as Universal Periodic Review scheduled for next year,” she added.

The Korea Times · December 15, 2023




13. Ex-USFK chief notes odds of misunderstanding leading to conflict in Korea



Why does this press do this? USFK was his fourth most important "hat." First, and most important to Koreans and Americans is that he was the commander of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command which is a bilateral command "co-owned" equally by the ROK and US governments and charged with deterrence and defense of the ROK employing a combined force that both countries provide. His second most important hat is the Commander of the United Nations Command which is charged with maintaining the armistice and if Kim Jong Un miscalculates and attacks the South the UN command will provide forces from the sending states to the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. The third most important hat is as the senior US military officer on the Korean peninsula and a permanent member of the Military Committee along with the Chairman of the ROK JCS. His 4th most important hat is as the Commander of USFK which is a force provider - when the US national command authority decides to provide forces to the ROK/US Combined Forces Command it is USFK that will provide those forces from on the peninsula and then conduct RSO&I of reinforcing forces from Japan and CONUS.



Ex-USFK chief notes odds of misunderstanding leading to conflict in Korea

The Korea Times · December 15, 2023

Former U.S. Forces Korea Commander Robert Abrams speaks during a virtual forum hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in this photo captured from CSIS' YouTube account, Dec. 14. Yonhap

A former U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) commander voiced concerns Thursday over the chances of misunderstanding and miscalculation leading to conflict on the Korean Peninsula, as he pointed to North Korea's unwillingness for dialogue and its close ties with China and Russia.

Speaking at a forum, Robert Abrams, who led USFK from 2018-2021, said that "we are back where we were" in 2017 when tensions heightened due to a series of North Korean provocations, including its sixth nuclear test and ballistic missile launches.

"It's a very difficult situation and the chances for misunderstanding, miscalculation or ... an accident that could flash into a small conflict," Abrams said during the virtual forum hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

He described the current security situation as being at a "stalemate," in which Pyongyang refuses to return to dialogue while it has been "emboldened" by cozy ties with Beijing and Moscow.

In recent weeks, concerns about the potential for a cross-border clash rose as the North walked away from the Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA), a 2018 inter-Korean tension reduction agreement, following the South's decision to partially suspend it in response to the North's satellite launch last month.

Commenting on the CMA, Abrams said that there is an increased chance of "some sort of kinetic activity" — an apparent reference to military moves that could add to tensions on the peninsula.

But he said that Seoul and Washington are "tightly aligned" to confront North Korean threats.

Abrams also forecast "fever-pitch" media discourse next year on the potential impact that former President Donald Trump could bring regarding USFK troop levels should he be reelected.

He made the remarks, noting the "rumors" that during his presidency, Trump wanted to pare down the size of the 28,500-strong USFK.

"We will start to see in Korean media, as the polls come out, by next summer," he said. "It will be at a fever pitch, I predict, with regards to the possible outcomes and impacts if Trump wins, vis-a-vis the USFK troops levels." (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · December 15, 2023


14. 'Progressive' versus retrogressive


Don Kirk has been around long enough to understand and nearly experience all of this!


'Progressive' versus retrogressive

The Korea Times · December 14, 2023

By Donald Kirk


One loaded word comes up in every political-military-diplomatic brouhaha: "progressive." For reasons lying deep in the history of American politics, progressives veer to the left in a movement initiated by crusading idealists who battled more than a century ago against the injustices of a “system” that discriminated against minorities and fostered terrible social and economic inequities.

Inexorably, however, the progressivism of the likes of the two U.S. presidents named Roosevelt, Theodore and his relative Franklin D., and of numerous other distinguished politicians, jurists, academic leaders and editors got tangled up with the rise of leftists and Communists after the Bolshevik revolution that overthrew Tsarist rule in Russia in 1917. By the 1920s and ‘30s, people were saying the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin was “progressive.” By now, leftists, radicals, and even otherwise “moderate” liberals identify with movements and regimes that are the antithesis of progressives.

For Koreans, the most obvious abuse of “progressive” is in the belief of far leftists that North Korea is a truly “progressive” state under the benevolent gaze of a great socialist, Kim Jong-un. “Pro-Northers” are likely to say there’s no evidence that Kim, as a third-generation hereditary dictator, presides over one of the world’s most retrogressive dictatorships. They go along with the regime’s denial of human rights abuses and proclaim the “Juche” policy of self-reliance as the essence of North Korean progressivism.

Incredibly, pro-Northerners also revere China as an example of mass progressivism while castigating Japan as the epitome of repressive capitalism.

Pro-northers uphold Beijing’s ruthless repression of the democracy movement that broke out in Hong Kong several years ago. They defend the one-man rule of China’s President Xi Jinping as leader of the Chinese Communist Party, castigate Japan as an outpost of pro-American imperialism and forget Xi's constant threats against the independent island province of Taiwan.

True, Japan’s Liberal-Democratic Party has controlled the Japanese government for most of Japan’s history since the party was formed in 1955 after the American post-war occupation. Despite inequities, however, Japanese life is nowhere nearly as repressive as that of China while Taiwan, looking forward to its next presidential election, exists as an outpost of democracy in a restive region.

Just as bad, it’s almost fashionable among leftists to support the terrorists who invaded southern Israel on Oct. 7 after imposing their brand of dictatorship over Gaza. There should be no mistaking about Hamas, which drove the almost moderate Fatah from political leadership of Gaza 15 years ago and destroyed whatever was left of the Palestinian Authority beyond the West Bank. Now an independent Palestinian state has all but ceased to function.

One reason for the failure of the Palestinian Authority is the refusal of Hamas to have anything to do with it. The Palestinian Authority may not be an example of democracy and political freedom, but leftists waving Palestinian flags on American campuses obviously have not thought through what Hamas is all about. They have no idea of the threat it poses against an independent Palestine Authority’s ability to govern a Palestinian state.

It may be easy to criticize Israel on any number of grounds, beginning with the expulsion of some 700,000 Palestinians from their homes soon after the formation of the independent Jewish state of Israel in 1948. The fact is, however, that Israel is a paragon of democracy compared with just about every Arab country or entity, certainly including the state of Palestine.

If Hamas were to retain the leadership of whatever is left of Palestine in Gaza and the West Bank, we may be sure it would exercise the same type of brutal authority as do the regimes of just about every other Arab state as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, responsible for arming Hamas against Israel.

Protesters may criticize Israel for any number of reasons, ranging from the revenge it is wreaking on all of Gaza, not just its Hamas rulers, to the inroads of Israeli settlers in the West Bank territory that rightly belongs to the Palestinians. It should not be necessary, however, to defend Hamas while opposing Israel’s conservative leadership. There is no way to see Hamas as "progressive" when it’s as retrogressive as the world’s most dictatorial states.

Only the North Korean despot, worshipped as “progressive” by assorted useful idiots, could be regarded as a worse dictator than the mysterious monsters who took over Gaza and ordered the invasion of Israel. For leftists, the world’s harshest leaders count as “progressive” as long as they oppose Western-style democracy as led by the U.S. and its allies.

Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) writes from Seoul as well as Washington.

The Korea Times · December 14, 2023


15. Forging A U.S.-South Korea Alliance Powered By Chips, Batteries, And Clean Technologies



Excerpts:


The upshot of the Next Generation CET Dialogue is that the United States and South Korea will collaborate on developing upstream technologies across a wide range of sectors to a greater degree than ever before, elevating the role of technology coordination alongside security as the glue that binds the two allies together. The envisaged scope and depth of cooperation promises to tie the two countries together in unprecedented ways. Such cooperation serves as a mechanism intended to integrate the two countries’ approaches toward technology cooperation, with the intention of preserving U.S. and South Korean leadership in defining global standards to develop cutting-edge technologies.
This approach paints a promising future for U.S.-South Korean cooperation, but it is premised on two critically important assumptions that must be successfully upheld for such an approach to succeed and achieve its full potential. First, the United States must maintain its leading role in global technological innovation and prevent competitors and adversaries from challenging U.S. technological leadership. Second, the United States must find ways to relax existing legal restrictions currently prohibiting the envisaged technological cooperation to ensure that its allies are able to fully join U.S. initiatives as equal stakeholders in an integrated approach that supports continued U.S. and allied technological leadership.


Forging A U.S.-South Korea Alliance Powered By Chips, Batteries, And Clean Technologies

by Scott A. Snyder

via Forbes 

December 15, 2023 10:23 am (EST)

The envisaged scope and depth of U.S.-South Korean cooperation on next-generation critical and emerging technologies will tie the two countries together in unprecedented ways.

cfr.org · 

On December 8, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and South Korean National Security Advisor Cho Tae-yong led the first-ever U.S.-South Korea Next Generation Critical and Emerging Technologies (CET) Dialogue in South Korea, which was announced during South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s April 2023 state visit to Washington, D.C. Sullivan also pledged to expand cooperation with like-minded allies through the launching of a U.S.-South Korea-India technology dialogue in 2024, as well as met with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts to follow up on the commitments made at the August 2023 Camp David summit to deepen U.S.-South Korea-Japan trilateral cooperation. These meetings are intended to generate bureaucratic momentum toward the goal of “locking in” whole-of-alliance cooperation among U.S. allies.

The fact sheet authorizes lead agencies in the United States and South Korea to establish new channels for coordination in each of the identified areas and envisages close cooperation between the United States and South Korea as part of a newly established Disruptive Technology Strike Force led by the U.S. Departments of Justice and Commerce designed to protect and defend against adversary efforts to steal jointly developed advanced technology.

In the area of semiconductor development, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and South Korea’s Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT) will promote joint research and development in leading technologies, while a newly established U.S. National Semiconductor Technology Center will work with the Korean Advanced Semiconductor Technology Center to promote public and private research efforts between the two countries.

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The NSF and MSIT will also lead research cooperation on biotechnology and biomanufacturing, which includes the implementation of joint biotechnology research between the Lawrence Berkley National Lab and the Korea Research Institute of Bioscience and Biotechnology. The envisioned cooperation will include research and exchange tie-ups in medical research domains between the U.S. National Institutes of Health and South Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare, the U.S. Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health and the Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare, the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infection Disease and the South Korean National Institute of Infection Diseases, and the U.S. National Cancer Institute and the Korean National Cancer Center.

In the area of batteries and clean energy technology development, cooperation between U.S. national labs, including the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories, and South Korean counterparts will develop next-generation batteries, clean energy technologies, utility-scale energy storage, and projects for establishing a battery safety database and international standards.

To advance new research in the quantum sector, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology and the Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science are tasked with promoting research in support of “next-generation superconducting quantum computing” alongside efforts to enhance collaboration between the Quantum Economic Development Consortium and the Korea Quantum Industry Association.

In the field of AI, both governments committed to cooperate on developing international governance frameworks for AI, which includes South Korea’s hosting of the Mini Virtual Summit on AI, the Global AI Forum, and the Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain Summit in 2024. The National Institute of Standards and Technology and the Korean Agency for Technology and Standards also agreed to collaborate on developing technology standards.

Finally, both governments pledged to deepen digital connectivity and information communication technology (ICT) coordination on cloud technology, promote a “secure and resilient ICT infrastructure” bilaterally and globally through joint financing, development, and standardization of next-generation ICT platforms, and establish a common approach to managing data protection and data flows through the Global Cross-Border Privacy Rules Forum.

The upshot of the Next Generation CET Dialogue is that the United States and South Korea will collaborate on developing upstream technologies across a wide range of sectors to a greater degree than ever before, elevating the role of technology coordination alongside security as the glue that binds the two allies together. The envisaged scope and depth of cooperation promises to tie the two countries together in unprecedented ways. Such cooperation serves as a mechanism intended to integrate the two countries’ approaches toward technology cooperation, with the intention of preserving U.S. and South Korean leadership in defining global standards to develop cutting-edge technologies.

This approach paints a promising future for U.S.-South Korean cooperation, but it is premised on two critically important assumptions that must be successfully upheld for such an approach to succeed and achieve its full potential. First, the United States must maintain its leading role in global technological innovation and prevent competitors and adversaries from challenging U.S. technological leadership. Second, the United States must find ways to relax existing legal restrictions currently prohibiting the envisaged technological cooperation to ensure that its allies are able to fully join U.S. initiatives as equal stakeholders in an integrated approach that supports continued U.S. and allied technological leadership.

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16. North Korea converting cargo plane into military aircraft, imagery suggests



Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. The regime is good at "borrowing" from advanced militaries.


North Korea converting cargo plane into military aircraft, imagery suggests

Air Koryo Il-76 plane with possible new rotodome could be used to detect enemy missiles, expert tells NK Pro

https://www.nknews.org/pro/north-korea-converting-cargo-plane-into-military-aircraft-imagery-suggests/

Colin ZwirkoDecember 15, 2023

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A North Korean Air Koryo Il-76 cargo plane at Samjiyon Airport in 2015 or before | Image: KCTV (Aug. 30, 2021)

North Korea appears to be converting a large cargo plane into an Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) for use during missile tests or to help detect enemy missiles in a crisis, newly released expert findings show.

An Ilyushin Il-76 cargo plane has recently appeared next to a maintenance hangar at Pyongyang International Airport with a large object newly affixed to the top of its fuselage, according to analysis of satellite imagery by Decker Eveleth, graduate research assistant at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

Eveleth concluded that the object is possibly a mount for a rotodome (rotating radar dome), part of a conversion to turn the plane into an AWACS or AEW (airborne early warning) aircraft.

An Il-76 cargo plane with a new “possible rotodome mount” atop its fuselage, parked inside a new walled-off area next to a maintenance hangar at Pyongyang International Airport | Image: Planet Labs; analysis by Decker EvelethA Russian Beriev A-50 equipped with a rotodome atop its fuselage | Image: Cantiana, Wikimedia Commons (July 2019)

“An AEW system capable of detecting cruise missiles seems like something the DPRK would definitely be interested in,” Eveleth told NK Pro.

“You’d theoretically put [the plane in the air] in a crisis and have it run a figure eight over the DPRK looking for incoming cruise munitions. I don’t think the platform is going to be doing any frequent or daily missions — if they’re doing AEW it would be a special occasions thing.”

Eveleth said Pyongyang could also use the plane “for tracking their own missile tests” like Russia, who uses Il-76-based Beriev A-50 AWACS aircraft during Burevestnik cruise missile tests.

“Notably, the Russians apparently dismantled some of their missile telemetry aircraft recently, so it’s likely they have parts for them lying around,” he added, suggesting they would be available to North Korea while adding that direct evidence of such an exchange has not emerged.

The two countries started a new shipping operation in late August involving Russian cargo ships and a Russian military port, and the U.S. has accused the two of trading unspecified “military equipment and munitions” through the route.

Russia has also refused to comment on multiple trips to Pyongyang by air force passenger planes in recent months, possibly carrying delegations related to discussing cooperation and weapons or equipment exchanges.

NK Pro analysis of Planet Labs imagery confirms the installation of the object on the Il-76 in November, and that the project could have started in late September when construction began on a barrier around the plane’s parking spot.

Only one of North Korea’s three known Il-76s appears to have been outfitted with the new equipment. 

The other two have appeared at the maintenance hangar next to the converted plane’s parking spot in recent months, but both were parked in the open on an apron across from the airport’s main terminal as of Dec. 13.

All three Il-76s have been sporting national carrier Air Koryo liveries in recent years.

This timelapse shows the installation atop the Il-76 becoming apparent in mid-November | Images: Planet Labs; edited by NK ProThe other two Air Koryo Il-76s were parked in their typical spot across from the airport terminal on Dec. 12 (yellow square). The converted Il-76 appears next to a maintenance hangar nearby (yellow circle). | Image: Planet Labs, edited by NK Pro

However, the DPRK military demonstrated its domain over the airline’s cargo aircraft in the past, repainting them with military camouflage and Korean People’s Army (KPA) emblems for a military parade in 2013 and using them for paratrooper training operations that appeared in a propaganda video released the following year.

The U.S. cited their participation in the military parade when it decided to sanction Air Koryo in 2016, as well as media reports that Air Koryo planes were used to transport “spare parts or items used in Scud-B missile systems.”

To boost its intelligence on U.S. and South Korean military activities, North Korea also successfully placed its first military spy satellite in orbit last month and unveiled a new high-altitude reconnaissance drone in July, though questions remain over the true capabilities of each system.

DPRK leader Kim Jong Un referred to “other means of reconnaissance” and “detection” when outlining his five-year military development plan in Jan. 2021, possibly pointing to additional types of aircraft besides drones, like the Il-76 conversion.

The most recent confirmed flight by one of North Korea’s Il-76s was in March, according to NK Pro analysis, when one flew to the northern city of Samjiyon, possibly to deliver aid materials following severe snowfall

All three also flew together to Shenyang, China in May 2022, reportedly to pick up COVID-19-related supplies or medicines. They were kept in isolation for almost two months on the northern runway of the Pyongyang airport upon their return as part of epidemic control policies.

The Pyongyang airport also recently expanded a parking apron near the terminal, possibly in preparation for acquiring new passenger or military planes.

Edited by Bryan Betts




17. S. Korea expresses 'stern' protest to China, Russia over air defense zone incursion




S. Korea expresses 'stern' protest to China, Russia over air defense zone incursion

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · December 15, 2023

By Yonhap

Published : Dec. 15, 2023 - 19:38

Shin Won-sik, minister of national defense (Yonhap)

South Korea's defense ministry lodged a "stern" protest with China and Russia on Friday over their warplanes' entry into the country's air defense identification zone (KADIZ) in the East Sea without notice.

On Thursday, two Chinese and four Russian military aircraft entered the KADIZ and exited it, prompting the South Korean Air Force to scramble fighter jets to the scene. They did not violate South Korea's air space.

Lee Seung-bom, director general for international policy at the ministry, expressed regret over the KADIZ entry to military attaches at the Chinese and Russian embassies in Seoul, respectively, in separate phone calls.

"The defense ministry expressed regrets to China and Russia over their military aircraft's flight into the sensitive areas close to our air space without prior notice," the ministry said in a press release.

The ministry also called on them to take appropriate measures to prevent a recurrence, noting that such a flight could cause regional tensions.

The foreign ministry said it also expressed regrets to China and Russia over the incident through diplomatic channels, and urged them to prevent a recurrence.

The air defense zone is not territorial airspace but is delineated to call on foreign plans to identify themselves so as to prevent accidental clashes.

China and Russia's defense ministries said Thursday they staged a joint reconnaissance flight under their annual cooperation plans, claiming the flights are in line with international laws. (Yonhap)



koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · December 15, 2023




De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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