Grains were mixed today during today's "Turnaround Tuesday" trading session. Soybeans rebounded on corrective buying following a near 50-cent drop over the previous three sessions. The U.S. dollar index hit a 3.5-month low today, while the crude oil market rallied.
Reuters reported today that Russia might impose a ban on grain exports if their stocks fall to 10 million tons. The government working group on non-tariff measures in foreign trade recommended the ag ministry monitor grain stocks monthly, Izvestia reported. Russia has been notoriously undercutting the price of wheat on a global scale, making demand hard to come by for the U.S.
Ukraine estimates its winter wheat acreage will be 7% smaller than the prior season due to several factors. Australia continues to struggle with rains during harvest.
Brazil's soybean planting pace is the slowest since the 2015/16 crop year largely due to the delays in the southern portion of the country which has experienced a ton of rain. Weather models turn drier over the next 5 days for Central and North Brazil, while South Brazil remains in an active weather pattern. The extended forecast brings rains to the central region which has been moderately short of normal moisture. Brazilian consultancy MB Agro cut their 2023/24 soybean estimate by an even 10 MMT, now down to 155 MMT; their export potential for the season was reduced from 100 to 96 MMT this month. Second-crop corn output was pegged at 90 MMT, below the 91.2 MMT Conab figure, with exports estimated at 40 MMT, down from 50+ MMT last season.
There were rumors this morning that China has purchased more U.S. soybeans, to be shipped from the PNW next March. We got a flash sale announcement that 123,300mt of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for the 2023/24 marketing year that seemed to confirm this. Although not a flash sale, wheat found support today as world demand slowly shifted back to the US with South Korea buying US and Canadian wheat.
Monday’s Statistics Canada crop production report is expected to show all wheat output for 2023 at 31.1 MMT, up from 29.8 MMT in September, with spring wheat at 24.0 MMT, up from 22.6 MMT previously. Canola production of 18.3 MMT would be up from 17.4 MMT in Sept, with corn seen at 15.0 MMT and soybeans at 6.8 MMT (both up slightly versus September).
Thursday (November 30th) is first notice day for December futures. December positions need to be liquidated or rolled forward by tomorrow's market close.
Funds were thought to have been mixed with corn a seller and wheat and beans buyers.
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