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Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:


"Influence operations are not just about changing minds; they're about changing behavior." 
– Michael Morell

"The most dangerous error is failure to recognize our own tendency to error."
 – B. H. Liddell Hart

"Not even a mighty warrior can break a frail arrow when it is multiplied and supported by its fellows. As long as you brothers support one another and render assistance to one another, your enemies can never gain the victory over you. But if you fall away from each other your enemy can brake you like frail arrows, one at a time."
– Genghis Khan


1. Senior Official for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Pak’s Meeting with People’s Republic of China (PRC) Special Representative on Korean Peninsula Affairs Liu

2. N. Korea expresses full support for Palestinian U.N. membership

3. Spy agency seeks to block access to propaganda song praising NK leader

4. NIS looking into N. Korea's suspected provision of weapons to Russia

5. Seoul remains low-key on China's forced repatriation of NK defectors in hopes for fence-mending, 3-way summit

6. F-4 fighter jets hold farewell flight after over five decades of service

7. North Korea: Thousands held in prison camps while authorities maintain control over speech and clothing

8. FOLLOW-UP: Japan and South Korea are itching to sign up to Aukus. But trust is an issue

9. Korean businesses look self-conscious in front of Washington

10. A provocative sculpture by South Korean artist becomes a highlight of Washington

11. Editorial: South Korea needs urgent action to protect consumers from hazardous Chinese imports





1. Senior Official for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Pak’s Meeting with People’s Republic of China (PRC) Special Representative on Korean Peninsula Affairs Liu


This new title for Dr. Pak is confusing to me. At first glance I thought the release was describing a DPRK-PRC meeting and I interpreted "Senior Official" for DPRK as being a north Korean senior official. The "for" was too subtle for me. Why did State change from Special Representative for the DPRK?


Senior Official for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Pak’s Meeting with People’s Republic of China (PRC) Special Representative on Korean Peninsula Affairs Liu

https://www.state.gov/senior-official-for-the-democratic-peoples-republic-of-korea-dprk-paks-meeting-with-peoples-republic-of-china-prc-special-representative-on-korean-peninsula-affairs-liu/?utm

MEDIA NOTE

OFFICE OF THE SPOKESPERSON

MAY 9, 2024

Senior Official for the DPRK Dr. Jung Pak met PRC Special Representative on Korean Peninsula Affairs Liu Xiaoming in Tokyo on May 9.

Senior Official Pak noted the continued threat posed to regional and global security by the DPRK’s unlawful nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, as well as its provocative and irresponsible rhetoric toward its neighbors. She stressed concerns regarding deepening military cooperation between the DPRK and Russia, including unlawful arms transfers, and noted that Russia’s veto of a UN Security Council resolution to extend the mandate of the UN 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts will hamper the efforts of the international community to ensure implementation of previous UN Security Council resolutions. Senior Official Pak emphasized U.S. commitment to dialogue and diplomacy with the DPRK as the only viable means of achieving lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula. She also expressed continued U.S. concerns regarding the forcible repatriation of North Koreans, including asylum seekers, to the DPRK and called on Beijing to uphold its non-refoulement obligations.

This meeting follows Secretary Blinken’s April 24-26 visit to the People’s Republic of China, during which the Secretary underscored the U.S. commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and to the importance of maintaining open lines of communication with the PRC.



2. N. Korea expresses full support for Palestinian U.N. membership


I don't think the US can veto a UN General Assembly resolution. It can vote no but I do not think there is a UNGA veto.


N. Korea expresses full support for Palestinian U.N. membership | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kang Yoon-seung · May 12, 2024

SEOUL, May 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korea supports a United Nations resolution for Palestine's full membership, Pyongyang's foreign ministry said Sunday, criticizing the United States for vetoing the move.

The remark came after the U.N. General Assembly urged the security council to give "favorable consideration" to full Palestinian membership on Friday (U.S. time).

"The DPRK fully supports it," a spokesperson for the North's foreign ministry said in a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency, noting that the rights of the Palestinians are "mercilessly violated" by the U.S.

DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Last month, the U.S. vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution that would have recognized Palestine's full membership, a status that Palestinians had long sought at the U.N.

Palestine has been a "nonmember observer state" at the U.N. since 2012.


colin@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kang Yoon-seung · May 12, 2024



3. Spy agency seeks to block access to propaganda song praising NK leader


No, no, no.


Do not be like north Korea. This is demonstrating weakness, not strength. This propaganda video/song is not going to turn people toward north Korea. 


Please do not do this.


Spy agency seeks to block access to propaganda song praising NK leader

The Korea Times · May 12, 2024

This photo, captured from a video footage aired by North Korea's Central TV on April 17 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appearing in a music video of new propaganda song, titled "Friendly Father." Yonhap

By Kwak Yeon-soo

South Korea's spy agency has asked the country's internet censorship body to block access to a North Korean propaganda song, citing national security concerns.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) requested the Korea Communications Standards Commission (KCSC) Saturday to block access to a song praising North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for being a "friendly father."

The song was released on April 17 to celebrate the opening of a new 10,000-home development in Pyongyang.

The song has gone viral on social media like YouTube and TikTok. Its music video features North Korean soldiers, workers and students dancing and giving thumbs up to a man held up as the father of the nation.

An NIS official said the video should be banned as it violates Article 44-7 (Prohibition on Circulation of Unlawful Information) of the Information and Communications Network Act.

Under the act, no one can circulate information with content displaying activity prohibited by the National Security Act through an information and communications network.

If the KCSC decides to block access, the video will not be available in Korea.

North Korea's propaganda outlets have been using various social media platforms to propagandize its regime.

Last year, the standards commission blocked several North Korean propaganda YouTube channels, including the Sally Parks SongA Channel, Olivia Natasha-YuMi Space DPRK daily and New DPRK channels upon the NIS's request.

The Korea Times · May 12, 2024



4. NIS looking into N. Korea's suspected provision of weapons to Russia


122mm are Russian based weapons. Some irony is that Russia sold 122/s to north Korea. and north Korea now produces them and can provide them to Russia.


NIS looking into N. Korea's suspected provision of weapons to Russia | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · May 12, 2024

SEOUL, May 12 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's spy agency said Sunday it is looking into suspicions that North Korean weapons made in the 1970s have been supplied to Russia for its war in Ukraine amid deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.

The remark by the National Intelligence Service (NIS) came in response to a recent report by a local media outlet that 122 mm artillery shells manufactured in the North in the 1970s appeared to be among weapons that Russia used in its ongoing war against Kyiv.

"The NIS is analyzing the relevant circumstance in detail and also continues to track overall military cooperation between North Korea and Russia," the spy agency said.

Photos released by a Ukrainian photographer last year showed that Korean letters, including the word "방-122," were found inscribed on rocket shells. Experts said they were likely 122 mm multiple rocket launcher shells.

South Korea's Defense Minister Shin Won-sik has also estimated the North to have shipped around 6,700 containers to Russia since a summit between their leaders in September, which are enough to accommodate approximately 3 million rounds of 152 mm artillery shells or 500,000 rounds of 122 mm artillery shells.

The NIS also said it is closely monitoring the possibility of illicit shipment of missile parts to North Korea amid concerns it may be procuring such parts to develop new weapons.

North Korea said Saturday it will deploy a new 240mm multiple rocket launcher to its military starting this year, a day after leader Kim Jong-un oversaw a test-firing of controllable shells for "the technically updated version" of the 240mm multiple rocket launcher system, according to state media.


North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (C) observes the test-firing of controllable shells for a new 240mm multiple rocket launcher, in this photo carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency on May 11, 2024. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · May 12, 2024



5. Seoul remains low-key on China's forced repatriation of NK defectors in hopes for fence-mending, 3-way summit


Do not downplay human rights. Show strength. Use pressure. A relationship based on weakness by not standing up for human rights will not be a relationship that will benefit the ROK. If it requires not standing up for the suffering of the Korean people in the north then perhaps the relationship is not worth having. The PRC will exploit this weakness by the ROK.


Seoul remains low-key on China's forced repatriation of NK defectors in hopes for fence-mending, 3-way summit

The Korea Times · May 12, 2024

Civic groups advocating for North Korean defectors stage a press conference in central Seoul's Myeong-dong, May 6, urging the Chinese government to stop repatriating North Korean defectors to their home country. Yonhap

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul embarks on rare visit to Beijing

By Lee Hyo-jin

The South Korean government's response to China's forced repatriation of North Korean escapees has seemed somewhat subdued, amid desperate efforts to maintain the cautious improvement of bilateral ties between Seoul and Beijing and eventually pave the way for a long-delayed three-way summit including Japan, anticipated later this month.

With a meeting coming up this week between the foreign ministers of the two nations, spurring ongoing discussions for the high-stakes trilateral summit, Seoul has apparently opted for a cautious approach toward the North Korean defector issue to avoid triggering further tensions.

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul will embark on a two-day visit to Beijing, Monday, the first visit in more than six years by a top South Korean diplomat to the Chinese capital.

The Yoon Suk Yeol government has consistently urged Beijing to refrain from repatriating North Korean escapees against their will, but this has been significantly toned down — even though China recently sent back dozens of North Korean defectors.

The Korean Unification Solidarity, an organization for North Korean refugees, claimed last week that around 200 North Korean refugees who were apprehended in northeast China's Jilin province were forcibly sent back to their reclusive home country on April 26. According to the international organization Human Rights Watch, the Chinese government forcibly returned about 60 North Korean refugees in a similar period.

However, the South Korean government has refrained from issuing an official condemnation of China's recent actions, a departure from its previous practices.

The Ministry of Unification reiterated its position that North Korean defectors should not be returned against their will under any circumstances, without officially confirming the speculation.

This marks a shift from the ministry's response last October when the Chinese government repatriated at least 500 North Korean defectors following the Hangzhou Asian Games. At that time, the unification ministry officially acknowledged the repatriation just two days after human rights organizations raised the speculation, and said, "We have strongly raised this issue with the Chinese government and regret the situation."

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to confirm whether South Korea has lodged a protest to China through diplomatic channels regarding the latest repatriation that occurred in April, stating that "related discussions with China have been ongoing at various levels."

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul speaks during a closing ceremony for a meeting of South Korean overseas diplomatic mission chiefs at the ministry headquarters in Seoul, April 26. Yonhap

Lee Sang-man, a Chinese affairs expert at the Kyungnam University Institute for Far Eastern Studies, suggested that it is unlikely South Korea has lodged a strong protest with China, nor will Minister Cho bring up the issue during his upcoming meeting with Wang.

Lee viewed that the seemingly restrained response is aimed at avoiding any disruption to the preparations for the upcoming trilateral summit, which is likely to be held in Seoul from May 26 to 27.

Amid enhancing trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, China has shown reluctance to participate in the event, the rotating chair of which is currently held by Korea. The last such summit took place in 2019.

"The primary objective of Cho's visit is to lay the groundwork for the summit. Bringing up the issue of North Korean escapees, where reaching common ground between the two sides is elusive, would not be a good idea. It's important for Seoul to keep efforts to find common priorities with China for the summit," Lee said.

Lee also viewed that South Korea's repeated demands for China to halt the repatriation have not yielded desired results, as Beijing sometimes uses the North Korean refugee issue as diplomatic leverage against Seoul.

"The trilateral meeting, if held, would be meaningful in spurring the long-stalled three-way cooperation. However, consensus on security matters would be challenging to achieve. Less sensitive topics such as people-to-people exchanges, environmental issues and cyberspace could offer areas of agreement," he noted.

The Korea Times · May 12, 2024


6. F-4 fighter jets hold farewell flight after over five decades of service


Probably can still defeat any aircraft in the north Korean inventory.


F-4 fighter jets hold farewell flight after over five decades of service | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · May 12, 2024

By Chae Yun-hwan

SUWON/GUNSAN, South Korea, May 12 (Joint Press Corps-Yonhap) -- A group of South Korean Cold War-era fighter aircraft staged one of their final flights last week ahead of retirement next month, bidding farewell after more than five decades of service.

The four F-4 Phantom IIs took off from their home base in Suwon, just south of Seoul, for the commemorative flight boarded by reporters on Thursday, retracing the supersonic fighter-bomber's 55-year history in South Korea's airspace.

The first batch of the U.S.-made jets arrived in South Korea in 1969, in a major boost to the Air Force that sought to beef up its aircraft fleet against threats posed by North Korea's Soviet-made jets amid fierce rivalry between the two Koreas.

More than a half-century later, the Phantoms will be fully retired from service on June 7, handing over operations to defend the skies to a new generation of aircraft.


F-4 Phantom II aircraft stage a commemorative flight above Suwon, just south of Seoul, on May 9, 2024, in this photo provided by the Air Force on May 12. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

During the farewell flight, the jets first headed southward above an airbase in the central city of Cheongju -- home to the aircraft from 1979 to 2018 -- that now operates the latest-generation U.S.-built F-35A stealth fighters.

One of the Phantoms was painted in a jungle camouflage pattern and another in light gray in a nod to their past paint jobs, while the two others were in the current dark gray color.

Moving on to the east coast, the jets revisited airspace where Phantoms had been deployed to intercept a Soviet heavy bomber in 1983. The aircraft were also mobilized to respond to incursions by a Soviet bomber and a nuclear submarine in the area the next year.

They then landed at an airbase in the southeastern city of Daegu for refueling, where the country first received the jets in a move that heralded a major shift in the balance of air power between the two Koreas.

The delivery took place just a year after a failed assassination attempt by North Korean commandos against then President Park Chung-hee in 1968, raising the need to bolster military capabilities to better fend off the North's threats.


F-4 Phantom II aircraft stage a commemorative flight above the east coast on May 9, 2024, in this photo provided by the Air Force on May 12. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

The introduction of the then-state-of-the-art aircraft marked the beginning of the South's air superiority over the North as Seoul continued to acquire more advanced fighters like the F-16 amid its transformation into an economic powerhouse.

In contrast, the North's economy has staggered, with its military still reliant on Soviet-era jets.

After refueling in Daegu, the Phantoms traveled to the southern city of Sacheon -- home to the country's sole fighter jet manufacturer, Korea Aerospace Industries -- where they briefly flew alongside two KF-21 prototype jets.

The homegrown supersonic fighter, which is designed to replace the F-4 and scheduled for deployment in 2026, will likely play a key role in South Korea's "three-axis" deterrence system against North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile threats.

The system includes the Kill Chain preemptive strike platform, the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation, an operational plan to incapacitate the North's leadership in a major conflict, and the Korea Air and Missile Defense system.

Next, the jets flew along the west coast, where Phantoms took part in a mission to sink a North Korean spy ship in 1971, before returning to Suwon.

The Air Force once operated some 220 Phantoms but has since retired most of them, with only around 10 units remaining in service.

South Korea is among a handful of countries that still operate the F-4, with the United States retiring the aircraft in 1996.


F-4 Phantom II aircraft stage a commemorative flight alongside two KF-21 prototype jets near the southern coast on May 9, 2024, in this photo provided by the Air Force on May 12. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · May 12, 2024


7. North Korea: Thousands held in prison camps while authorities maintain control over speech and clothing


We should hardly need a reminder. Then again, we must never stop telling these stories until the Korean people in the north are free.


North Korea: Thousands held in prison camps while authorities maintain control over speech and clothing - Civicus Monitor

monitor.civicus.org


North Korean soldiers in North Pyongan Province (Photo Credit: Daily NK)

North Korea is one of the world’s most repressive states, where civic space is rated ‘closed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor. The government restricts all civil and political liberties for its citizens, including freedom of expression, peaceful assembly, association and religion. It prohibits all organised political opposition, independent media, civil society and trade unions.

In March 2024, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appointed Joe Colombano as the UN Resident Coordinator in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea). He is the first representative of the international organisation to enter the country since the coronavirus pandemic. Colombano will “support the country’s commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and lead the U.N. team’s efforts” – including in the areas of food and nutrition security, social development services, resilience and sustainability, and data and development management.

In an oral update to the Human Rights Council on 20th March 2024, Deputy High Commissioner Nada Al-Nashif said that North Korea was showing no signs of addressing impunity and that it is imperative that accountability is pursued outside the country. She added: “This should be achieved first and foremost through referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC), or national level prosecutions in accordance with international standards under accepted principles of extraterritorial and universal jurisdiction.”

On 4th April 2024, the United Nations Human Rights Council adopted a resolution ensuring continued scrutiny of North Korea’s human rights record. The resolution renews the mandate of the UN special rapporteur on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and asks the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to prepare its first comprehensive report on the North Korean human rights situation since the Commission of Inquiry (COI) published its landmark report in 2014. The new resolution also increases resources for the high commissioner’s office to focus on criminal accountability for North Korea’s rights violations.

In recent months, there have been reports of the ongoing detention of individuals in prison camps as a means of suppressing dissent, while defectors were subjected to serious human rights abuses including torture. New laws have been introduced since 2020 to criminalise expression and patriotic songs have been banned, while the authorities intensify the crackdown on young people’s speech and clothing.

Association

Arbitrary arrests and detentions in political prison camps

In April 2024, Amnesty International published their annual report which highlighted that there was a pervasive fear of falling foul of the authorities and of being denounced by fellow citizens, and the government frequently used arbitrary arrest and detention as a means of suppressing opposition or perceived dissent.

Political prison camps (kwanliso) were believed to remain in operation, although the authorities continued to deny their existence. Those detained in the camps included thousands of people who had expressed dissenting views or otherwise criticised the government. Prisoners in the camps were subjected to forced labour and inhumane conditions.

There are also serious concerns about the fate of hundreds of people, mainly women, who the Chinese authorities reportedly returned to North Korea forcibly in October 2023. North Korean authorities regard anyone who escapes the country as “criminals” or “traitors” for “illegally” crossing the border. In the past, returnees have been arbitrarily detained and subjected to torture and other ill-treatment.

Defectors repatriated are still in re-education camps

INVESTIGATION: Most of the defectors repatriated from #China last October remain in re-education camps. Some have have died due to severe human rights violations and malnutrition they suffered in detention. #NorthKorea https://t.co/mss7kGsCHR pic.twitter.com/9AzHl3Joc7
— The Daily NK (@The_Daily_NK) April 17, 2024

According to Daily NK in April 2024, about 200 North Korean defectors who were forcibly repatriated after spending time in Chinese prisons in Liaoning and Jilin provinces were placed in Ministry of State Security detention centres in Sinuiju, North Pyongan Province, and Onsong, North Hamgyong Province, where they underwent three-month investigations into the circumstances of their defection and their activities and crimes in China.

Local agents of the Ministry of State Security conducted high-intensity interrogations of the defectors, comparing the returnees’ testimony with materials obtained from the Chinese police. During interrogation, agents subjected detainees to serious human rights abuses, including assault, torture, forced labor, sexual harassment and rape.

Most defectors were taken into police custody in their places of residence before defecting, where they underwent preliminary investigations and trials before being sent to re-education camps. Some of the defectors forcibly repatriated have been sent to notorious political prison camps from which few ever emerge alive.

Expression

Laws to control expression

New @hrw report on North Korea's sealing of border w/ China since Covid19 & reimposition of control over the border, market activity, unsanctioned travel + access to information - all areas where its dominance had weakened over the past 30 years. @linayp https://t.co/a5i361gavo
— Tirana Hassan (@TiranaHassan) March 7, 2024

In March 2024, Human Rights Watch published a report on the devasting consequences for the North Korean people of the government’s intensifying repression and worsening isolation from 2019 until late 2023.

The report highlighted that since 2019, the authorities have acted out of apparent concern for possible unrest by a population suffering from the government’s Covid-19 related measures and the impact of new UN economic sanctions on top of existing restrictions. They ramped-up ideological campaigns and imposed new laws to restrict access to unsanctioned information and media content and devices, and in the way people speak and express themselves within North Korea.

The government enacted the Reactionary Ideology and Culture Rejection Law in December 2020, which bans people from smuggling, viewing, and distributing “reactionary” and “anti-socialist ideology and culture”; the Youth Education Guarantee Law in September 2021, which bans young people from copying foreign culture and reorients them to a “socialist lifestyle”; and the Pyongyang Cultural Language Protection Law in January 2023, which permits the authorities to punish people for using South Korean intonations or slang. Public executions of offenders are permitted, evidently to increase a sense of fear and alarm among the population.

Some of the punishments in these new laws are more severe than those the government has previously stipulated for the most serious “crimes against the nation,” including conspiracy to overthrow the government, terrorism, or treason.

Patriotic songs that refer to reunification banned

In February 2024, North Korea banned more than 100 patriotic songs because they refer to reunification with the South – the latest step making it clear that unifying the divided peninsula is no longer a priority for Pyongyang, generating confusion among residents.

According to Radio Free Asia (RFA), since the start of 2024 supreme leader Kim Jong Un has ordered the government to take several steps to distance the North from the South. They include removing language from state media indicating that Koreans on both sides of the demilitarised zone (DMZ) are “one people,” ending all economic cooperation with the South, and even tearing down a major Pyongyang landmark symbolising a future reunion. Kim has also publicly threatened to “annihilate” Seoul.

Additionally, the authoritarian state has dropped a phrase symbolising a unified Korea from the lyrics of its national anthem, while erasing an image of the Korean Peninsula, viewed as a unification reference, from its major websites.

Pedicab driver arrested in Pyongyang after protesting fine

A pedicab driver in #NorthKorea's capital of Pyongyang was recently arrested in the midst of a crackdown on the "uncultured" mode of transportation. https://t.co/2EM5YvvwzS pic.twitter.com/A9vfyhAHds
— The Daily NK (@The_Daily_NK) April 1, 2024

A pedicab driver in Pyongyang’s Hyongjesan district was arrested in March 2024 after he protested against being fined by police. According to Daily NK, then man who complained about the fine was sentenced to six months of disciplinary labour.

Pedicab drivers have recently become a common sight on the outskirts of Pyongyang, where they provide transportation for the capital city’s residents going to or from work or doing business elsewhere. Pedicab drivers ride bicycles retrofitted with a seat for passengers on the back and transport passengers between Pyongyang’s districts or from the city centre to surrounding counties.

Pyongyang police are fining pedicab drivers, saying that making money by pushing people around on retrofitted bicycles is an uncultured and non-socialist behavior that does not fit the mood of the capital.

Authorities intensify crackdown on young people’s speech and clothing styles

Authorities in Sinuiju are once again intensifying crackdowns on young people who use the South Korean language or wear South Korean-style clothing.

According to Daily NK, the city’s authorities have recently stepped-up crackdowns on young people who wear clothes that don’t fit the socialist lifestyle. Universities have formed enforcement teams and are cracking down on students’ clothing and South Korean speech as they leave school.

North Korean enforcement teams use scissors to cut up the clothes of young people caught wearing “capitalist-style” fashions and shame people caught in crackdowns in struggle sessions. The authorities also inform the workplaces of parents whose children have been caught up in the crackdowns.

North Korea considers inappropriate clothing or hairstyles or the use of the South Korean language to be anti-socialist or non-socialist behavior, and students who flagrantly break the rules are severely punished.

monitor.civicus.org


8. FOLLOW-UP: Japan and South Korea are itching to sign up to Aukus. But trust is an issue


I received some feedback on this article from a businessman friend who does business in South Korea. I think that Korean officials and Korea watchers should be aware of these perspectives. When I asked him for permission to send out these comments he replied with this message.


Please assure them that I am a friend of Korea and have been doing business there for many years. 


______________________________________________________________________________


Finally, an article that doesn’t pedal planted-story pablum about Pillar 2. Neither Japan nor SK will join P2 for 10 years, if ever. 

Lack of trust in SK isn’t due just to leaks but rather because they regularly steal US technology to grow their own defense base. Anyone who has worked security and sensitive weapons clearance in the USG knows this. 

Besides having no currently competitive technology to offer, Japanese industry and government is a cyber playground for China. Hard to overstate. 

And the noted personnel clearance processes in work? For public perceptions only. Not serious. DCSA will continue keep that door shut, for good reason. 

As for P2 and Japan, the happy talk from the Kishida visit has no money and no defined program. There eventually be something that keep the U.S. contribution fully black boxed but not a serious codev/copro program. 

P2 itself is not much more than eyewash; no committed funds, no defined programs. It was included to make the UK and AUS think that the U.S. will share technology and development programs. Meaning the U.S. will pay. 

AUS has neither the money nor the capabilities, except in a handful of niche technologies. The UK can’t afford their current budget. GCAP will break the bank eventually (when the UK invites KSA into the program you’ll know) and there is no way that there will be enough for SSN-AUKUS, the follow on boat for UK and AUS. 

P1, the transfer of US boats to AUS, is already on shaky ground. Not least because of US manufacturing capacity to get to the 2.5 boats per year required. 

But more importantly because AUS will need a completely green field civilian/ military nuclear ecosystem before the end of the decade. They haven’t even begun to get serious about the task ahead, not even the basics of an intergovernmental management structure to coordinate at of the military and civilian elements required of nuclear technology. So whatever transfer date for the first boat the U.S. claims (2032) you can slide it a few years to the right. 

But workforce is a tough problem in AUS. New union construction contracts are calling for US$160k/yr starting salary. They’ll get something close. 

The shipbuilding/repair capacity in Adelaide and Perth is a mess. Worse than the U.S. if that’s possible. Now they need to learn how to work on nuke boats. Good luck. 

And the double edge sword of the extractives industries makes it difficult to recruit military forces. AUS can only man 3 of the current 6 Collins boats. That would be maybe 1.25 LA class given rotation requirements. And it doesn’t include having to recruit to a much higher caliber of sailor to run a nuke. 

All to say, there is a lot of happy talk lately about US relationships in the Pacific. It doesn’t help to publicly pretend there aren’t serious limits to those relationships, both in the near and long term. The Chinese surely know. 






Excerpts:

 

China warns Aukus against going down 'dangerous road' over nuclear-powered submarine pact
China warns Aukus against going down 'dangerous road' over nuclear-powered submarine pact
"Aukus members will have to work hard in Southeast Asia and other Aukus-sceptic regions to counter this [Chinese] narrative to secure direct or indirect support," Nagy said.
When researchers at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore asked 1,677 respondents from 10 Southeast Asian nations what they thought about Aukus in 2022, more than one-third, or 36.4 per cent, said they thought it would help balance China's growing military power – while 22.5 per cent worried it would escalate a regional arms race, and 12.3 per cent felt it would undermine international nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

 

Japan and South Korea are itching to sign up to Aukus. But trust is an issue

  • Aukus' so-called Pillar 2 promises access to sensitive know-how and cutting-edge military tech like quantum computing, AI and hypersonic weapons
  • That makes data security a key concern, with observers identifying New Zealand as the only Aukus aspirant likely to slot seamlessly into the pact

 


 

Maria Siow

+ FOLLOWPublished: 12:00pm, 11 May 2024

South China Morning Post · May 11, 2024

Last month, China expressed its concerns about rumours that Japan could soon join Aukus – reports that Australia was quick to hose it down, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese saying there were "no plans" to expand the pact beyond its three founding members.


South Korean Defence Minister Shin Won-sik speaks during a meeting with Australian officials in Melbourne on May 1. Photo: AP

South Korea was next to rock the boat, with its Defence Minister Shin Won-sik saying on May 1 that the possibility of sharing advanced military technology with Aukus members had been discussed during two days of meetings in Melbourne with Australian officials.

His country's "differentiated science and technology capabilities will contribute to peace and stability", Shin said.

New Zealand reportedly entered into talks with Australia on joining Pillar 2 of the pact back in January, but after a warning from China it seemed to demur somewhat, with Foreign Minister Winston Peters stressing earlier this month that Wellington was still "a long way" from being able to make a decision on joining the pact, adding: "Our information gathering is still in its early stages".


A semiconductor factory under construction in Japan's Hokkaido province earlier this month. Japan has worked to reduce its reliance on China, building new domestic production bases for semiconductors. Photo: Kyodo

Stumbling blocks

Japan and South Korea could undoubtedly offer state-of-the-art technical know-how and technologies to Aukus, according to Eleanor Shiori Hughes, a non-resident fellow at Chicago-based economic research think tank EconVue.

"With their outlook on the strategic environment largely aligned with that of the Aukus countries, they have enormous potential to be major value-adds to build capacity on these cutting-edge capabilities," said Hughes, who is also a member of the Australian Institute for International Affairs and The Japan Foundation's Indo-Pacific Cooperation Network.

But she said major obstacles still prevented either East Asian nation or New Zealand from joining Aukus due to the "nascent" nature of the partnership.

"Members are still working towards solidifying the building blocks by which to expand collaboration on frontier technologies for both pillars," Hughes said, adding that Tokyo would need to build greater resilience against cyberattacks before it can participate in Aukus projects.

[Aukus] members are still working towards solidifying the building blocks by which to expand collaboration on frontier technologies

Eleanor Shiori Hughes, researcher

"While there is reason for promise, Japan still needs to reconcile challenges posed by its security clearance mechanisms."

Of the three Aukus aspirants, New Zealand would likely find it the easiest to slot into the pact's security framework due to it already being a member of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance alongside Australia, Britain, the US and Canada, said Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington whose primary research area is security cooperation.

For its part, Japan has been making moves to improve information security and prevent leaks of sensitive data with a "security clearance bill" that was approved by the cabinet in February and is currently being debated in parliament.

If passed into law, the bill would expand the use of background checks for people working with sensitive information, carrying a punishment of up to five years in prison and a hefty fine for anyone leaking information "critical to national economic security".


South Korean KF-16 fighters jets fly in formation over the Korean peninsula. An information leak related to the fighter jet project set alarm bells ringing in Aukus member states. Photo: Yonhap/via dpa

This adds to the "strong punishments" Japan already has in place if members of the defence industry leak information, Nagao said – improving the likelihood that Aukus members will want to share military secrets with Tokyo.

Despite South Korea having "a tough legal system that protects sensitive information", Nagao said Aukus members were concerned about leaks in the country, citing a case that came to light earlier this year involving two Indonesian nationals who were accused of attempting to steal military secrets related to the KF-21 fighter jet project.

"Domestic politics in South Korea are also highly volatile," said Stephen Nagy, an international-relations professor at International Christian University in Tokyo. "A change in president could lead to a change in position on Pillar 2 participation."

Current South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's term doesn't end for another three years, but his ability to govern with a free hand was further constrained when his ruling People Power Party's suffered a stinging defeat in last month's legislative elections.


Protesters stage a rally in 2017 to oppose plans to deploy the advanced US Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence, or THAAD, system in South Korea. Photo: AP

South Korea is also highly vulnerable to economic and other forms of coercion from China, Nagy said.

In 2017, China reacted to Seoul discussing the deployment of the US' Terminal High Altitude Area Defence anti-missile system by banning package tours to South Korea, encouraging a boycott of Korean brands and shutting down stores owned by South Korean conglomerate Lotte. The fallout cost South Korea's economy some US$7.5 billion that year alone, according to estimates from the Hyundai Research Institute.

Japan, by comparison, enjoys many of the same technological advantages as South Korea but is less vulnerable to coercion or susceptible to a drastic shift in its strategic outlook, according to Nagy.

Under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Japan has worked to reduce its reliance on China, with new domestic production bases for semiconductors being set up and Japanese companies diversifying their supply chains.

Japan will likely be the first country to cooperate in Pillar 2

Stephen Nagy, international-relations professor

"Japan will likely be the first country to cooperate in Pillar 2," Nagy said, adding that Beijing would continue to paint Aukus as a Washington-led alliance aimed at containing China.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said last month that "China and many regional countries have expressed grave concerns and opposition" to Aukus, which she said "heightens the risk of nuclear proliferation, exacerbates [the] arms race in the Asia-Pacific and undermines regional peace and stability."

Chinese nationalist tabloid Global Times also chimed in, stating in an April 8 article that any expansion of Aukus would be an "alarming move" that "marks the pact further turning into an 'Asian Nato'". It warned such a move could also "further foment militarism within Japan", citing a researcher of Australian studies.

02:52

China warns Aukus against going down 'dangerous road' over nuclear-powered submarine pact

China warns Aukus against going down 'dangerous road' over nuclear-powered submarine pact

"Aukus members will have to work hard in Southeast Asia and other Aukus-sceptic regions to counter this [Chinese] narrative to secure direct or indirect support," Nagy said.

When researchers at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore asked 1,677 respondents from 10 Southeast Asian nations what they thought about Aukus in 2022, more than one-third, or 36.4 per cent, said they thought it would help balance China's growing military power – while 22.5 per cent worried it would escalate a regional arms race, and 12.3 per cent felt it would undermine international nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

South China Morning Post · May 11, 2024

 



9. Korean businesses look self-conscious in front of Washington



Korean businesses look self-conscious in front of Washington

donga.com


Posted May. 10, 2024 07:40,

Updated May. 10, 2024 07:40

Korean businesses look self-conscious in front of Washington. May. 10, 2024 07:40. .

South Korean businesses, despite the challenging geopolitical landscape, are demonstrating remarkable resilience and adaptability.


South Korean and Chinese business leaders held a meeting at Walkerhill Hotel in Seoul last December for the first time in four years. Across the table were SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, who leads the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), Hyundai Motor Group Chair Chung Eui-sun, and Samsung Electronics President Park Seung-hee, who were accompanied by Chinese business moguls in energy, petrochemistry, and bio industries. All the business leaders engaged in discussion in a lighthearted mood as they were joined by former South Korean government officials such as former deputy prime minister and minister of finance Yoo Il-ho; former minister of health and welfare Rim Chae-min; and former chief FTA negotiator Choi Seok-young. Indeed, this provided a buffer zone during the talks between C-level corporate representatives from South Korea and China; and former high-ranking government leaders.


It was part of normal business practice for South Korean companies, which have both production hubs and consumers in China, to occasionally meet up to promote cooperation up until tensions started growing between China and the United States. Given how China works, they invested a great deal of time in building social networks not only with their business partners but also with China’s central and local government authorities. However, after a set of new U.S. sanctions on China turned things around back in 2018, South Korean companies found it harder to visit China when they encountered some issues with business deals and production lines they should get right. They were only limited to low-profile, small-sized trips.


It was reported that South Korean and Chinese business leaders enjoyed a productive and fruitful time at a late-night drinking party as part of the gathering for the first time in four years. They all had a heart-to-heart chat over drinks for the first time in a long time, sharing their viewpoints on business issues and investment plans.


With Washington and China at odds with each other for quite a long time, South Korean companies are seeing the consequences of their sour relations. As U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo has continuously argued for export controls of chip equipment to China, it is not U.S. equipment firms but South Korean makers that lost a considerable portion of the Chinese market. To be specific, the amount of import costs China spent on South Korean chip equipment dropped by 20.3 percent as of last year compared to the year earlier; the corresponding figure for U.S. chip equipment only decreased by 3.1 percent during the same period. By contrast, China recorded an increase in imports from the Netherlands and Japan by 150.6 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively.


With the damage done unknowingly to South Korean businesses, the Semiconductor Industry Association, a group of U.S. chip companies, jointly opposed the U.S. government’s sanctions on China last July, arguing that the semiconductor sector needs to maintain its access to Chinese clients. In March, Apple CEO Tim Cook, concerned about the marked drop in sales in the Chinese market, flew to China to talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Additionally, he opened the door at Apple's newest store in Shanghai on its opening day.


Compared to their U.S. competitors, South Korean businesses seem to have less room for maneuvering, sandwiched between Washington and Beijing, even while the market they have painstakingly built around is closing its door with their hands tied. They desperately wait for Seoul to facilitate diplomatic communication channels. This all explains the high expectations for the upcoming summit talk among South Korea, China, and Japan, which will likely occur by the end of this month. Given that the three governments will also have a ministerial meeting regarding economic affairs and commerce for the first time in four years since December 2019, Seoul is highly expected to take a “frenemy” approach over the talks. Just as Washington takes an offensive posture at the forefront but gives a leg up to businesses behind the scenes, Seoul needs to ensure that South Korean companies get a chance at least to take a relieving breath in the upcoming talks.

한국어

donga.com


10. A provocative sculpture by South Korean artist becomes a highlight of Washington


I have not yet seen this. I will have to check out.


A provocative sculpture by South Korean artist becomes a highlight of Washington

Suh Do-ho’s installation ‘Public Figures’

https://www.chosun.com/english/travel-food-en/2024/05/12/QLMKV43MLRBD3MA7OQV4NVTPZE/

By Kim Eun-joong (Washington),

Yeom Hyun-a

Published 2024.05.12. 11:26

Updated 2024.05.12. 15:26




The lower part of Suh Do-ho's 'Public Figures' on display in front of the Smithsonian's National Museum of Asian Art (NMAA) in Washington, DC, USA./NMAA

A provocative question by South Korean artist Suh Do-ho has sparked considerable discussion in Washington, DC. His installation ‘Public Figures,’ displayed in the front courtyard of the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Asian Art (NMAA) since Apr. 27, coincides with the museum’s centennial celebration. Unlike traditional statues that commemorate notable individuals, this piece represents the collective support of 400 ordinary people. In less than a month since its unveiling, it has become a significant installation at the Smithsonian.

According to Monument Lab, a nonprofit organization, there are about 48,000 monuments across the United States. These range from the 170-meter-tall Washington Monument, visible throughout the city, to memorials dedicated to Lincoln, Jefferson, and Martin Luther King. Known as the ‘City of Monuments,’ Washington DC has statues that predominantly celebrate towering, white, and male figures. In contrast, Suh’s ‘Public Figures’ challenges traditional representations by depicting “counter-monuments that question the power structures we are accustomed to.”

The sculpture, standing just over three meters tall and constructed from jesmonite, aluminum, and polyester resin, represents a ‘statue without a statue.’ The upper portion of the work is intentionally left empty, symbolizing the absence of a traditional figure, while the base portrays 400 ordinary people upholding the structure.

Carol Heo, a curator at the NMAA, said, “The top of the statue is empty, emphasizing the detailed depiction of the nameless individuals at its base. It prompts us to consider who holds significance in history: the traditional authorities, heroes, or the common people.”

Suh elaborated on the underlying theme of this work during an interview with Smithsonian Magazine, saying, “In Korea, there is a concept of ‘grassroots’ that never dies, is always renewed, and is more powerful when we join forces.”

The Washington Post praised the installation, stating, “Suh’s work turns public art on its head.” The artwork is set to remain in the NMAA’s front yard for the next five years, supported by the Korea Foundation (KF).


South Korean artist Suh Do-ho's work 'Public Figures' is installed in front of the Smithsonian's National Museum of Asian Art (NMAA) in Washington, DC, USA, on May 9, 2024./Kim Eun-joong (Washington)





11. Editorial: South Korea needs urgent action to protect consumers from hazardous Chinese imports


Editorial: South Korea needs urgent action to protect consumers from hazardous Chinese imports

https://www.chosun.com/english/opinion-en/2024/05/12/5KYHVS2RYJBJBLRN54UUIIELYU/

By The Chosunilbo

Published 2024.05.12. 09:48




Children's products sold by AliExpress and Temu found unsafe in Seoul Metropolitan Government's inspection./Seoul Metropolitan Government

The Seoul Metropolitan Government (SMG) conducted a safety investigation on children’s products sold by the Chinese online retailers AliExpress (Ali) and Temu. The results were concerning: more than 40% of the tested products were deemed unfit. Of the 71 products examined, 29 contained harmful substances (41%), including chemicals that can hinder children’s growth and ingredients commonly found in humidifiers and sterilizers.

The inspection findings were alarming. Phthalate-based additives were 348 times above the safety standard in plastic decorations for children’s shoes. These chemicals soften hard plastics and can stunt a child’s growth. Additionally, ornaments contained lead, a heavy metal known to cause cancer, at levels 33 times over the standard. Children’s clay contains more than 39 times the acceptable amount of boron, which can cause skin inflammation, itching, headaches, and diarrhea.

Chinese platforms like Ali and Temu have aggressively penetrated the South Korean market with low prices. Ali is currently the second-largest e-commerce platform in Korea, boasting 8.18 million monthly active users as of February, trailing only behind Coupang. However, this expansion has revealed significant issues. Notably, while official imports undergo certification by Korean testing agencies, direct purchases from Ali do not, leaving many Koreans vulnerable to harmful products when seeking bargains on these Chinese online shopping platforms.

Consumers are advised to prioritize safety alongside price. Still, it is also crucial for the government to quickly assess the reality of overseas direct sales and establish a robust system for safety management. This system should include measures to block harmful goods. Although the Office for Government Policy Coordination initiated a task force, it has not yet implemented consumer protection measures. In contrast, the U.S., EU, and other countries have accelerated consumer protection efforts concerning Chinese e-commerce. Currently, there are no regulations to compensate consumers for health damages caused by purchases from these Chinese shopping sites. It is essential to negotiate with the Chinese government to create a system that enables consumers to receive prompt and fair compensation for damages.









De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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