Newsletter — November 16, 2023 | |
|
ON THE LOCAL FRONT
POLICY
ECONOMY
SAFETY
| |
|
The November 7 general election featured all seven Seattle City Council seats elected by district, including three Seattle City Councilmembers seeking reelection. Another incumbent City Councilmember was running for a seat on the King County Council.
Citywide Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda wins seat on King County Council. Councilmember Mosqueda won the seat vacated by retiring Councilmember Joe McDermott. Mosqueda won her primary by a 54.75% to 39.77% margin over Sofia Aragon in a 3-way race. On election night, the general election looked much tighter, with Mosqueda ahead by 260 votes in a 50%/50% race.
As King County released additional vote tallies, Councilmember Mosqueda surged ahead to a victory margin of 10%. She is expected to serve the remainder of 2023 on the Seattle City Council (she takes office on the King County Council on January 1, 2024). Early next year, the newly-elected Seattle City Council will make an appointment to fill that citywide seat, which will be on the ballot in 2024 (to serve the final year of Councilmember Mosqueda’s term) and again in 2025 for a full four-year term.
In the race to succeed retiring King County Councilmember Jeanne Kohl-Welles, the longtime executive director of Northwest Immigrant Rights Project, Jorge Barón, defeated Sarah Reyneveld.
A net gain of 3 moderates on the City Council. In the City Council races, moderates picked up three seats (Districts 1, 3, and 7) and held on to two districts now held by retiring moderate Councilmembers Juarez and Pedersen. Incumbents Dan Strauss (a swing vote on the current Council) and Tammy Morales won their elections.
The net gain of 3 moderate seats – combined with moderates holding Districts 4 and 5 – will form a governing majority with Citywide Councilmember Sara Nelson. That majority could grow to 7 seats, depending on who is appointed to Councilmember Mosqueda’s seat. In addition, Councilmember Strauss has been a swing vote on the current Council, so in all likelihood, Councilmember Morales will be the lone dissenting voice on many 8-1 votes.
Councilmember Nelson recruited and helped moderate candidates in all seven districts and deserves enormous credit for this outcome. She will be a powerful force on the Council in 2024 and 2025 (when she faces her own reelection.)
It’s important to note that the King County Elections office will continue counting votes for several more days. As usual, the candidates endorsed by The Stranger picked up a disproportionate share of votes after election night, resulting in the lead changing in two districts. With virtually all votes now counted, the 11/14 results in this summary document should reflect the final outcomes.
Read more from the Seattle Times.
| |
 | |
In a full-page ad in the November 12 Seattle Times, Washington Retail and eight other business organizations called on the Seattle City Council to carefully prioritize City spending to address Seattle’s biggest challenges.
Seeking an honest discussion about taxes and spending, WR joined a broad array of business organizations: the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, Downtown Seattle Association, WA Technology Industry Association, WA Food Industry Association, TechNet–NW, Seattle Latino Chamber of Commerce, Seattle Hotel Association, and the Seattle Restaurant Alliance.
The fundamental concern is that the City’s spending is out of control. From 2017 – 2023, City revenues grew at a robust 3.7% annually. But the City’s spending exploded, rising at a rate of 5.5% per year. As a result, Seattle is facing projected deficits of $227 million in 2025 and $207 million in 2026 – despite adding over $300 million annually in new taxes starting in 2021.
With the stunning election victories of moderate Council candidates earlier this month and polling that shows that 61% of voters believe taxes are too high for the services received, the time is now for the City Council to do a full review of spending.
Unfortunately, the City Council is focused on raising taxes and fees, making Seattle even less affordable for families and businesses.
The letter closed by saying, “We urge the City Council to work with the mayor’s office to make the same decisions many Seattleites do each month: prioritize spending, cut what’s unsustainable, and stop spending money you do have. Tell them to get real about their budget, focus on their responsibilities, and stop piling on new programs and taxes.”
| |
From left: Mark Johnson, WR V.P. of Policy & Government Affairs, and Marie Dymkoski, Director of the Pullman Chamber of Commerce. | |
|
Last week, WR met with the Pullman Chamber of Commerce, led by Marie Dymkoski, and the Pullman Police Department to discuss issues surrounding public safety, retail theft, and organized retail crime in their community.
Although Pullman may be less impacted than more urban cities, they, too, grapple with challenges relating to these critical issues. WR applauds the proactive efforts of both the chamber and police department as they have worked with retailers and other businesses to establish protocols to protect their stores and employees from being victims of retail theft and ORC.
WR shared version seven of the Guide to Navigating Public Safety and Retail Crime with the chamber and police department, who intend to promote and distribute the guide as a community resource. The guide is available free of charge on WR website’s public safety resource page. This valuable tool is updated regularly and is in the process of being translated into several other languages.
Recent developments with the AG Statewide ORC Unit, which is expected to be fully staffed by the end of the year were discussed with attendees. Additionally, Pullman leadership at the chamber and police department have agreed to join efforts to advocate for legislative changes that will increase their effectiveness.
The association values its partnership with the Pullman Chamber and Pullman Police Department and looks forward to continued collaboration with jurisdictions across the state.
| |
|
SSB 5171, introduced in the 2023 session, is substantially similar to the CA "Pink Tax" Law passed in Sept 2022. The law prohibits businesses (any businesses, including but not limited to retailers, suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors) from charging higher prices for substantially similar products based on gender. The bill passed out of the Senate but did not move out of the House Consumer Protection & Business Committee.
Senator Dhingra, the bill's prime sponsor, requested the Washington State Board of Health to conduct a Health Impact Review, an objective, non-partisan, evidence-based tool about how proposed legislation may impact health and health equity. WR and many stakeholders were informants to the writing of this full review released just last week.
Several key findings in the review could call into question whether gender-based pricing discrimination on consumer products is a prevalent systemic issue and whether the lack of consumer education provision and funding may result in inequitable outcomes, especially for communities with limited access or understanding of consumer protection rights. For example, New York has received only three complaints since their law's passage in 2020, and none in California since its passage in 2022.
In implementing New York's Gender Price Equity Law, their state Attorney General provides guidance for consumers to send complaints to the Department of Consumer Protection even though the statute does not include explicit language about a process equivalent to the "right to cure."
Besides, the bill's "substantially similar products" term is vague. Legal informants expected "judicial discretion to create varying legal interpretation" in court proceedings, which may deliver inequitable outcomes in different areas.
Based on the key findings mentioned above, WR recommends amending the bill to emphasize educating consumers about their right to file complaints with the AGO to pursue the "right to cure" similar to the guidance issued by NY AGO, and to eliminate the civil litigation route because there is no evidence to support systemic gender-pricing discrimination on products.
Measured approaches that focus on consumer education and their easy access to the "right to cure" without prolonged civil litigation will create a higher probability of achieving the intended equitable outcome of SSB 5171.
| |
|
A significant slowdown in inflation was observed in October, signaling that the Federal Reserve might halt its series of interest rate increases. Data from the Labor Department showed that overall consumer prices remained stable compared to the previous month and experienced a 3.2% rise over the prior year, a slower increase than in September, primarily due to lower gasoline prices.
Core prices, which exclude the often fluctuating costs of food and energy, saw a modest rise of 0.2% from September to October and a 4% increase from the previous year. This is the smallest annual rise since September 2021, influenced by reduced vehicles and air travel prices, along with smaller housing cost increases. Core inflation is generally considered a more accurate indicator of future inflation trends.
This welcome news positively impacted the stock and bond markets, leading investors to believe that the Fed would cease raising rates. Yields on government bonds, like the 10-year Treasury, fell notably. For five consecutive months, core prices have risen at a slower pace, aligning with the Federal Reserve's requirements to consider stopping rate hikes. The overall inflation rate peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.
Investors are now less inclined to expect further rate increases from the Fed in the near future, and there's growing anticipation that rate cuts could begin as early as May. The slowdown in inflation is a positive sign for the Fed, which had been concerned about persistent high inflation due to robust consumer spending. This year's inflation rate slowdown is one of the most significant in decades, suggesting that the Fed's efforts have effectively controlled inflation without triggering a recession.
The Federal Reserve's next meetings will likely focus more on adjusting their public statements to reflect the recent progress in controlling inflation and the reduced likelihood of further rate increases. This shift in focus comes after a period of uncertainty, where many had expected a higher core inflation rate. The goal remains to achieve a "soft landing," reducing inflation without causing a recession, a balance that now seems more achievable.
| |
|
Every retail holiday season since the pandemic has been unique for consumers and retailers, which will likely be the case again this year.
In 2020, sales surged 9.1% year over year despite the challenges of COVID-19, and there was a significant move to shopping online as Americans stayed home. Sharply rising demand overcame supply chain bottlenecks for a record growth rate of 12.7% in 2021. Holiday sales in 2022 increased 5.4% as savings built up during the pandemic, provided a buffer against rising inflation, and online shopping continued, but more consumers returned to stores.
This year, there is a new set of dynamics in place. The average household remains on relatively solid financial footing despite pressures from still-high inflation, stringent credit conditions, and elevated interest rates. Recent revisions to government data indicate that consumers haven’t drawn down as much of their pandemic savings as some believed, and savings are still providing a buffer to support spending.
The holiday shopping season—November 1 through December 31—is expected to see retail sales increase between 3% and 4% over 2022 to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. The growth rate is consistent with the average annual increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019. The projected total sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, would top the $929.5 billion record set last year.
While there is uncertainty surrounding the measurement of how well the economy is performing, it continues to move forward, defying recession predictions and proving to be more resilient than many anticipated. It is expected that shoppers this season will continue to spend on a range of items and experiences but at a slower pace.
| |
|
U.S. import cargo slows as retailers prepare for record holiday sales
As 2023 progresses, the influx of imported goods into major U.S. container ports is anticipated to diminish following the arrival of most holiday season merchandise. This trend aligns with the Global Port Tracker report's predictions. Retailers are gearing up for a potentially record-breaking holiday sales season, having adequately stocked their shelves and distribution centers to cater to both in-store and online shoppers. Earlier concerns regarding labor contracts in ports, railroads, and delivery services have been resolved, ensuring a smooth supply chain operation. This efficiency promises shoppers an easy time finding desired products.
A significant increase in holiday sales is predicted, estimating growth between 3% and 4% compared to last year. This growth rate mirrors pre-pandemic levels, with anticipated sales between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion, surpassing last year's record of $929.5 billion.
Despite the slowdown in imports, the U.S. economy remains more robust than those in Europe and Asia. These regions' recessions have reduced consumer demand, leaving shipping companies with surplus capacity. This situation arose from the rapid expansion of fleets in response to the cargo surge in recent years.
U.S. consumers continue to stand out globally, benefiting from ongoing job and wage growth and the ability to utilize savings accumulated during the pandemic. However, a potential global recession in cargo trade could impact the supply chain.
In September, U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.03 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), a slight decrease from last year but an increase from August. This marked the highest import volume since October 2022. October's projected figures were 1.92 million TEUs, a decline from the previous year, while November and December are forecasted to see year-over-year increases, with 1.88 million and 1.85 million TEUs, respectively. These figures indicate a gradual winding down of import cargo as the year concludes.
| |
|
Skilled worker shortages may result in employers hiring those with less on-the-job experience and knowledge. Employers are spending less time to train new employees due to high turnovers. Frequently, newer, less experienced employees are now training the newest employees, which can result in gaps in understanding proper processes and the risk hazards associated with the work.
To address these gaps, management/supervisors need to be intentional about incorporating good practices such as:
Ongoing training to upskill existing employees:
- For experienced workers, develop them into mentors to transfer knowledge to newer ones.
- Cross-train wherever possible to create a backup resource for the future.
Employee Retention Strategies:
- Provide a positive work environment and competitive compensation and benefits.
- Conduct regular employee feedback sessions to address concerns and follow through with their feedback to improve job satisfaction.
Recruitment Strategies:
- Inquire applicants about their past involvement and training on workplace safety.
- Consider hiring based on potential and cultural fit, with a commitment to providing necessary training.
Strategic Partnerships:
- Collaborate with industry associations, community colleges, and vocational schools to identify targeted training programs.
- Establish partnerships with other businesses to share resources and expertise.
Internship Programs:
- Develop internship programs to provide hands-on experience to individuals entering the workforce.
- Create pathways for interns to transition into full-time roles.
Technology Adoption:
- Leverage technology to automate routine tasks, allowing employees to focus on more complex responsibilities.
- Invest in tools and systems that enhance productivity and reduce the need for highly specialized skills.
Continuous Monitoring and Adaptation:
- Regularly assess the skills needed and adjust training programs accordingly.
- Stay informed about emerging technologies and trends to anticipate future skill requirements.
By combining these strategies, businesses can work towards minimizing the impact of a skills gap and fostering a workforce with the necessary safety knowledge and competencies.
Our safety team is available to help members improve their safety program beyond compliance with quality safety practices. Contact us at safety@waretailservices.com to learn more.
| |
WR diversity statement
WR is committed to the principles of justice, equity, diversity, and inclusion. We strive to create a safe, welcoming environment in which these principles can thrive.
We value all people regardless of race, ethnicity, gender, religion, age, identity, sexual orientation, nationality, or disability, and that is the foundation of our commitment to those we serve.
| |
|
Renée Sunde
President/CEO
360.200.6450
Email
| |
|
Rose Gundersen
VP of Operations
& Retail Services
360.200.6452
Email
| |
|
Mark Johnson
Senior VP of Policy & Govt. Affairs
360.943.0667
Email
| |
|
Robert B. Haase
Director of
Communications
360.753.8742
Email
| | | | |
