Quotes of the Day:

"Man has but little heeded the advice of the wise men. He has been - fatefully, if not willingly - less virtuous, less constant, less rational, less peaceful than he knows how to be, than he is fully capable of being. He has been led astray from the ways of peace and brotherhood by his addiction to concepts and attitudes of narrow nationalism, racial and religious bigotry, greed and lust for power."

- Ralph Bunche

“If we are to survive, we must have ideas, vision, and courage. These things are rarely produced by committees. Everything that matters in our intellectual and moral life begins with an individual confronting his own mind and conscience in a room by himself.”

- Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.

"Life is not just about peaks and valleys, about wins and losses. Life is about the journey. You hear that all the time. You’ve got to absorb that. You’ve got to know that. The journey has to become the destination because there is no true destination. There is no endpoint. There is no goal. All rivers run to the sea and yet the sea is not full. Life goes on; accept what life gives you. The sun rises the morning after you win the championship or lose in the first round."

- Paul Assaiante, Run to the Roar

1. 100 U.S. nuclear weapons should be committed to supporting S. Korea's security against N.K. threats: report

2. RAND Report: Options for Strengthening ROK Nuclear Assurance

3. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Food conditions improve in northern part as newly harvested potatoes, lessening concerns about starvation

4. Seoul slams N. Korea's money laundering, vows efforts to ban inflow of 'black money'

5. N. Korean vessel stranded near eastern maritime border rescued by N.K. authorities: JCS

6. IMF Hails Korea's Fiscal Austerity

7. Reshuffle of S. Korea's top military brass erases legacy of Moon's NK policies

8. North Korea's next satellite launch unlikely to make deadline

9. US, South Korea, Australia commence air-defense drills on heels of ground exercises

10. Hard-up North closes embassies in Africa as sanctions sting

11. Yoon, Kishida receive Kennedy’s ‘Profile in Courage Award’

12. Reshuffling is needed, but stability also matters (ROK Military)

13. Saudi-S Korea in a rich and wide mega-project embrace

14. US needs 'strategic clarity' on North Korea deterrence: report

1. 100 U.S. nuclear weapons should be committed to supporting S. Korea's security against N.K. threats: report

Creative solution? Is this realistic? What deterrent effect would this have on Kim Jong Un? How would he alter his strategy?

The 156 page report can be downloaded here: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA2600/RRA2612-1/RAND_RRA2612-1.pdf

Excerpts:

It then called for approximately 100 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to be modernized at South Korea's expense, saying the weapons could be stored in the U.S. but would be rapidly deployable to and committed to supporting the South.

According to the report, the four-step sequential process to commit U.S. nuclear weapons to the South and pressure the North to freeze its nuclear weapons program will also involve building new U.S. tactical nuclear weapon storage in South Korea and dedicating "all or part of the nuclear weapons on a U.S. ballistic missile submarine operating in the Pacific to targeting North Korea."

The report stressed "if implemented roughly as described, this option could commit up to about 180 U.S. nuclear weapons to ROK security in the next few years" while "perhaps eight to 12 B61 nuclear bombs could be deployed in the ROK for both symbolic and operational purposes." ROK stands for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.

100 U.S. nuclear weapons should be committed to supporting S. Korea's security against N.K. threats: report | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · October 30, 2023

SEOUL, Oct. 30 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States should modernize around 100 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to support the security of the South against North Korea's growing threats, a research report said Monday.

The Asan Institute for Policy Studies and the Rand Corp. made the suggestion in a joint report, stressing the North has "already established a nuclear weapon force that could pose an existential threat" to South Korea and is "on the verge" of posing a serious threat to the U.S.

"Kim Jong-un appears to be planning a force of at least 300 to 500 nuclear weapons... the 300-weapon threshold could almost be reached in 2030," the report, titled "Options for Strengthening ROK Nuclear Assurance," said.

The report estimated a potential North Korean nuclear attack as powerful as its sixth nuclear test, if launched against Seoul, would lead to nearly 2 million fatalities and serious injuries.

The report also said the North hopes to use its nuclear weapon to threaten Washington in order to break the South Korea-U.S. alliance and "dominate South Korea without having to invade it."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) talks with officials during a visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute in Pyongyang on March 27, 2023, in this file photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). Kim guided the work to mount nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles, and the institute reported the recent years' work and production for bolstering the North's nuclear forces, both in quality and quantity, according to the KCNA. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

It then called for approximately 100 U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to be modernized at South Korea's expense, saying the weapons could be stored in the U.S. but would be rapidly deployable to and committed to supporting the South.

According to the report, the four-step sequential process to commit U.S. nuclear weapons to the South and pressure the North to freeze its nuclear weapons program will also involve building new U.S. tactical nuclear weapon storage in South Korea and dedicating "all or part of the nuclear weapons on a U.S. ballistic missile submarine operating in the Pacific to targeting North Korea."

The report stressed "if implemented roughly as described, this option could commit up to about 180 U.S. nuclear weapons to ROK security in the next few years" while "perhaps eight to 12 B61 nuclear bombs could be deployed in the ROK for both symbolic and operational purposes." ROK stands for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.

It also pointed out South Korea's assurance in the U.S. nuclear umbrella has faltered due to ambiguity in the U.S. commitment to the South amid increasing North Korean threats, leading to increased calls for Seoul to develop its own nuclear weapons.

The Washington Declaration, in which South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to bolster extended deterrence in their April summit, "promises greater strategic clarity," but still "lacks the implementation details that are needed to truly increase ROK nuclear assurance," the report said.

"When dealing with the nuclear weapon threats of North Korea and China, the importance of strategic clarity will only increase in the future."

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · October 30, 2023

2. RAND Report: Options for Strengthening ROK Nuclear Assurance

Again, the 156 page report can be downloader here: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA2600/RRA2612-1/RAND_RRA2612-1.pdf

The research questions, key findings, and table of contents are below.

South Korea Needs Greater Nuclear Assurance

rand.org · by Bruce W. Bennett

As the North Korean nuclear weapon threat has grown, many in the Republic of Korea (ROK) do not feel assured by the U.S. nuclear umbrella. They favor ROK development of nuclear weapons, a potential disaster for the ROK and the United States. The authors propose options for strengthening that assurance, including enhancing strategic clarity, coercing the North to freeze its nuclear weapons, and committing U.S. nuclear weapons to support the ROK.

Read Online

Options for Strengthening ROK Nuclear Assurance

Research Questions

1. What are the major nuclear weapon threats to ROK security?
2. What policy and strategy options might strengthen ROK nuclear assurance?
3. What nuclear employment planning and execution options might strengthen ROK nuclear assurance?
4. What nuclear weapon force options might strengthen ROK nuclear assurance? How can they be designed to minimize political difficulties with the ROK and with ROK neighbors?

North Korea has been vastly increasing its nuclear weapon threat and plans to accelerate this process in the future. North Korea has also adopted an extremely hostile campaign of threatening the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States with nuclear attacks. China is also vastly increasing its nuclear weapon capabilities and is no longer trusted by most people in the ROK.

To counter these threats, the United States provides extended deterrence for the ROK and promises a nuclear umbrella to cover the ROK so that the ROK does not need its own nuclear weapons. The United States wants a nuclear weapon–free Korean Peninsula to avoid imperiling the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the foundation of U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy. The United States has constructed its nuclear umbrella on a high degree of strategic ambiguity in the belief that this ambiguity will achieve the most-effective deterrence of North Korean aggression.

But this ambiguity, the growing North Korean threat, and U.S. withdrawal from other allied countries (e.g., Afghanistan) have caused many in the ROK to question the existing U.S. commitment and seek more-concrete assurance. Sensitive to this concern, President Joe Biden supported ROK President Suk Yeol Yoon with the Washington Declaration in April 2023. This report proposes options that the United States and the ROK could exercise to strengthen ROK nuclear assurance consistent with the Washington Declaration, including enhancing strategic clarity, coercing North Korea to freeze its nuclear weapons, and committing U.S. nuclear weapons to support the ROK.

Key Findings

• North Korea has a nuclear weapon force that may already pose an existential threat to the ROK and is on the verge of posing a serious threat to the United States. The North hopes to use its nuclear weapon threats to help break the ROK-U.S. alliance.
• China poses very serious nuclear weapon threats to the ROK and the United States.
• ROK assurance in the U.S. nuclear umbrella has faltered because of these growing threats and the ambiguity in the U.S. commitment to ROK security, leading to calls for ROK development of nuclear weapons.
• Because of these developments, the U.S. nuclear umbrella requires greater strategic clarity for both deterrence and ROK assurance.
• The Washington Declaration promises greater strategic clarity. However, it needs greater implementation details to increase ROK nuclear assurance.
• The United States could pursue strategic clarity akin to the efforts taken with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the 1960s.
• A ROK-U.S. coercive campaign to freeze North Korean nuclear weapon development could strengthen ROK nuclear assurance.
• The United States could commit U.S. nuclear weapons to establish some level of parity against the North Korean nuclear weapon threat to the ROK. Doing so might avoid a future decision by the ROK government to produce its own nuclear weapon force.
• ROK nuclear weapon production could lead to international sanctions on the ROK that would seriously damage the ROK economy, cause political controversy and instability, and increase global nuclear weapon proliferation.

Table of Contents

• Chapter One
• Introduction
• Chapter Two
• Why the ROK Needs Greater Nuclear Assurance
• Chapter Three
• Policy and Strategy Options
• Chapter Four
• Employment Planning and Execution Assurance Options
• Chapter Five
• Nuclear Weapon Force Assurance Options
• Chapter Six
• ROK Nuclear Assurance in Changing Conditions
• Appendix
• Nuclear Damage Assessment

Research conducted by

• RAND National Security Research Division

This research was sponsored by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.

Document Details

• Copyright: RAND Corporation
• Availability: Available
• Print Format: Paperback
• Paperback Pages: 156
• List Price: $26.00
• Paperback Price: $20.80
• Paperback ISBN/EAN: 1-9774-1214-9
• Document Number: RR-A2612-1
• Year: 2023
• Series: Research Reports

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Citation

Format:

• Chicago Manual of Style
• RAND Corporation Style Manual

Bennett, Bruce W., Kang Choi, Cortez A. Cooper III, Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr., Myong-Hyun Go, Gregory S. Jones, Du-Hyeogn Cha, and Uk Yang, Options for Strengthening ROK Nuclear Assurance. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2612-1.html. Also available in print form.

Bennett, Bruce W., Kang Choi, Cortez A. Cooper III, Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr., Myong-Hyun Go, Gregory S. Jones, Du-Hyeogn Cha, and Uk Yang, Options for Strengthening ROK Nuclear Assurance, RAND Corporation, RR-A2612-1, 2023. As of October 29, 2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2612-1.html

Download Citation (BibTeX) Download Citation (RIS)

rand.org · by Bruce W. Bennett

3. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Food conditions improve in northern part as newly harvested potatoes, lessening concerns about starvation

Soem short term good news. But we must not be deceived. There are tough times in the north. But the Korean people in the north will continue to demonstrate amazing resilience.

Excerpts:

“Market food prices have fallen significantly. People can now eat cheap potatoes and flour rather than relying just on rice and corn, so there are fewer people seeking out those (more expensive) foods. Many people saw a fall in cash incomes, so they weren’t able to afford (rice and corn), either.”

The reporting partner said that many people are welcoming the distribution of potatoes, saying: “Everyone believes they need to survive on what they have.”

＜Inside N. Korea＞ Food conditions improve in northern part as newly harvested potatoes, lessening concerns about starvation…Rice prices also fall…People say “We must do anything to survive”

asiapress.org

A man monitoring the border and for crop thieves at a guard post in the middle of field. The man appears to be part of the “Worker and Farmer Red Guard,” a paramilitary organization. Taken on the Chinese side of the border across from Sakju County, North Pyongan Province, in late September 2023. (ASIAPRESS)

With the full-fledged start of the potato harvest in the northern region of North Korea, enterprises throughout the area have distributed potatoes to their employees, which has led to a steep fall in market food prices. A reporting partner in Hyesan, Yanggang Province, provided the following report on October 24. (KANG Ji-won)

◆ Workers pick potatoes and transport them back themselves

According to the reporting partner, one company in downtown Hyesan provided each of its workers with 20 days’ worth of potatoes. The workers went to the fields to pick the potatoes and transported them back to the city. There are differences, however, in how many potatoes workers in different companies are receiving.

The potatoes being distributed are produced in Yanggang and North Hamgyung provinces. ASIAPRESS was unable to collect information about distribution of potatoes in other areas of the country.

As newly harvested potatoes have begun circulating, the market prices of other foods have fallen significantly. An ASIAPRESS survey found that white rice in Yanggang and North Hamgyung provinces in late September cost 6,800 won, with corn costing 3,400 won. On October 20, however, white rice cost 5,700 won while corn cost just 2,550 won.

※ Prices are for one kilogram. 100 North Korean won is around 0.012 USD.

In state-run food shops in late October, five kilograms of corn was sold for 2,400 won to each household, while three kilograms of flour sold for 6,800 won. The reporting partner explained the reason behind the fall in prices:

“Market food prices have fallen significantly. People can now eat cheap potatoes and flour rather than relying just on rice and corn, so there are fewer people seeking out those (more expensive) foods. Many people saw a fall in cash incomes, so they weren’t able to afford (rice and corn), either.”

The reporting partner said that many people are welcoming the distribution of potatoes, saying: “Everyone believes they need to survive on what they have.”

◆ Starvation will become less of a problem

The Kim Jong-un regime started to rebuild the state-run food shop network in late 2019 by restricting prices and quantities of food sold in markets. In January 2023, the regime restricted the sale of rice and corn as part of efforts to push forward the government’s monopoly on the sale of food.

The regime aimed to exert total control over food distribution, but the state-run food shops face such serious food shortages that the authorities are turning a blind eye to small-scale sales of food in markets.

In provincial cities, there have been deaths caused by malnutrition and disease since 2021. In April to July of this year, famine-level food shortages took hold in some areas of the country.

※ ASIAPRESS communicates with reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.

Map of North Korea ( ASIAPRESS)

asiapress.org

4. Seoul slams N. Korea's money laundering, vows efforts to ban inflow of 'black money'

The alliance needs to work hard on this. It is part of the regime's lifeline.

Seoul slams N. Korea's money laundering, vows efforts to ban inflow of 'black money' | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · October 30, 2023

SEOUL, Oct. 30 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's unification ministry handling inter-Korean affairs said Monday that it will cooperate with the international community to put a brake on Pyongyang's evolving money laundering schemes.

During its plenary meeting in Paris last week, the Financial Action Task Force, an intergovernmental anti-money laundering body, decided to maintain North Korea for the 13th consecutive year on the list of "high-risk jurisdictions subject to a call for action," defined as having significant deficiencies in countering money laundering, terrorist financing and financing of proliferation.

A separate report by the U.N. Panel of Experts on U.N. Security Council sanctions against Pyongyang showed that cryptocurrency theft by North Korea's state-sponsored hackers were estimated at nearly US$1.7 billion last year, growing three-fold from 2021.

"As shown, the North Korean regime's seizure of illicit funds to secure money for its rule and development of weapons of mass destruction is becoming bolder day by day, in means and scale," Koo Byoung-sam, the ministry spokesperson said in a regular press briefing.

"The shortcut to resolving all problems on the Korean Peninsula, such as the North's denuclearization and promotion of human rights, lies in blocking the inflow of black money to the regime of Kim Jong-un," Koo said.

He said South Korea will actively work with the international community to shut off such inflows, though he did not provide any further details.

Koo Byoung-sam, the spokesperson for South Korea's unification ministry, speaks at a press briefing at the government complex in Seoul on Oct. 30, 2023. (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · October 30, 2023

5. N. Korean vessel stranded near eastern maritime border rescued by N.K. authorities: JCS

I wonder about the regime's intention for this rescue. Is it for humanitarian reasons? Were they "shamed" into action because the ROK Navy acted in a professional and humane way. Or did they want these sailors returned because they embarrassed the regime by being in the public eye and making contact with Koreans from the South? Will they face punishment upon return?

(LEAD) N. Korean vessel stranded near eastern maritime border rescued by N.K. authorities: JCS | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · October 30, 2023

(ATTN: CHANGES attribution in headline, lead; UPDATES with JCS remarks in paras 3, 6-7)

By Kim Eun-jung

SEOUL, Oct. 30 (Yonhap) -- A North Korean vessel stranded near the de facto inter-Korean maritime border in the East Sea was towed away by North Korean authorities several hours after it was spotted by the South Korean military, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Monday.

The 10-meter-long vessel was spotted by a South Korean patrol ship while drifting in waters 200 kilometers east of the coastal town of Jejin and around 3 km north of the eastern Northern Limit Line (NLL) at 2:16 p.m. Sunday, according to the JCS.

"It is known that the North Korean authorities towed away the drifting vessel last night," JCS spokesperson Lee Sung-joon said in a press briefing.

The people on board the North Korean ship, suspected to be a commercial vessel, said they had been adrift for 10 days and wished to return to their homeland, requesting assistance with food and water.

The JCS said the South Korean military provided food and water on "humanitarian grounds" and notified the North of the situation through the United Nations Command and international maritime communication channels for its assistance.

Lee said the South Korean military disclosed the operation to the media to assist the ship's rescue and prevent accidental clashes between the two Koreas in the process of delivering humanitarian aid to the people aboard the ship.

"We informed them that the people aboard the North Korean ship had no intention of defecting to ensure that they would not be punished after returning to North Korea," a military official said.

The incident came just five days after a North Korean vessel carrying suspected defectors crossed the eastern NLL into South Korean waters. A joint investigation has been under way to look into their exact motive for crossing into South Korea.

A wooden boat is towed by a South Korean military vessel toward a port in Yangyang, Gangwon Province, northeastern South Korea, on Oct. 24, 2023, after a group of four unidentified individuals from North Korea crossed the eastern maritime inter-Korean border on the boat and were spotted in waters off the nearby city of Sokcho. (Yonhap)

ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · October 30, 2023

6. IMF Hails Korea's Fiscal Austerity

IMF Hails Korea's Fiscal Austerity

english.chosun.com

October 30, 2023 13:30

Thomas Helbling /EPA-Yonhap

The International Monetary Fund has praised Korea's fiscal austerity policy as a model for other countries around the world.

"Korea, which has reduced deficits after the pandemic and is now committed to keep deficits low going forward, is for us an example for this fiscal prudence and the appropriate fiscal policy conduct in these circumstances," said Thomas Helbling, the deputy director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, in a press briefing earlier this month.

"In terms of desirable debt levels for fiscal… we think that current debt levels in Korea are broadly appropriate and should be maintained," he added.

Korea's national debt increased a whopping W123.5 trillion to W970.7 trillion in 2021 (US$1=W1,356). Even last year it rose,by W96.7 trillion to reach W1,067.4 trillion, but it is expected to grow by only W6.7 trillion this year and W6.2 trillion next year.

By IMF standards Korea's government debt-to-GDP ratio for this year is 54.3 percent, which is much lower than the average of the G20 countries of 122.7 percent.

However, the IMF expressed concerns about Korea's high household debt, which is 1.6 times disposable income.

IMF Paints Gloomier Outlook for Korea's Economy

IMF Warns Korea Could Suffer Chronic Low Growth

Has the Korean Economy Bottomed out?

S&P Slashes Korea's Growth Outlook Again

IMF Slashes Korea's Economic Growth Outlook

IMF Sees Higher Global Growth But Slashes Korea's Outlook

Current Economic Woes Resemble 2008 Financial Crisis

IMF Raises Korea's Growth Outlook on Improved Consumption

Korea's Economy to Rank 10th in the World

KDI Warns of Economic Uncertainties

Moody's Raises GDP Forecast for Korea

Korea's Economic Recovery to Lag Behind G20

IMF Chief Says Korean Economy Least Hit by Coronavirus

• Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com

english.chosun.com

7. Reshuffle of S. Korea's top military brass erases legacy of Moon's NK policies

Is (or was) the ROK military politicized as a Korean friend informed me?

An interesting point here:

"Lieutenant generals are the ones deeply involved in the military's operational planning. The personnel change may create a fresh environment in the military, but there are some concerns that this will lead to the early retirement of experienced three-star generals,” said another military official, asking not to be named.

Reshuffle of S. Korea's top military brass erases legacy of Moon's NK policies

The Korea Times · October 30, 2023

President Yoon Suk Yeol ties a string to a ceremonial sword presented to Navy Adm. Kim Myung-soo, the nominee for the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, during a promotion ceremony at the presidential office in Seoul, Monday. Yonhap

Early retirement of three-star generals raises leadership vacuum concerns

By Lee Hyo-jin

A major reshuffle of South Korea’s military brass has resulted in almost all four-star generals promoted under the previous government being set to retire.

This is seen as the latest move by the Yoon Suk Yeol administration to reverse its predecessor's defense policies, military sources said, Monday.

On the previous day, Navy Operation Commander Vice Adm. Kim Myung-soo was named as the nominee for the new Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) chairman, a seat currently held by Gen. Kim Seung-kyum, according to the Ministry of National Defense.

The nominee is set to be appointed following a parliamentary confirmation hearing.

Soon after the announcement, the vice admiral grabbed the limelight as it is rare for a Navy officer to take the top military post. Previous JCS chiefs in the last 10 years were from the Army and the Air Force.

“The appointment of a Navy officer could mean that the government is seeking to strengthen the Navy’s capacity. But what was even more surprising was the promotion of the three-star general,” a military source told The Korea Times.

Vice Adm. Kim Myung-soo / Courtesy of Ministry of National Defense

Kim’s promotion to four-star general and subsequent appointment as JCS chairman is a break from tradition and the first since 1994 when South Korea regained peacetime operational control of its troops from the U.S.-led United Nations Command.

In addition to the new JCS chief, six other three-star generals were promoted to four-star generals in the latest reshuffle.

Among them are Lt. Gen. Park An-su, Vice. Adm. Yang Yong-mo and Lt. Gen. Lee Young-su, who were appointed as the chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force, respectively. Kang Shin-chul, the current head of the JCS operation headquarters, has been named as the deputy commander of the S. Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC).

The major personnel change, which followed the replacement of the defense minister in September and vice defense minister earlier this month, apparenlty reflects the government’s dissatisfaction with senior military officers.

"I think this major reshuffle reflected the defense minister's skeptical view of senior officers who were promoted during the previous Moon Jae-in government," the military source said.

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik, a retired three-star Army general, has been openly critical of the Moon administration’s defense policies, often accusing the peace initiative under the previous government as one of the reasons behind Pyongyang’s escalating provocations.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, a think tank, commented that the personnel change means that the government is ready to take an even more hawkish stance on North Korea, in contrast to its predecessor's efforts to promote inter-Korean rapprochement.

“It is very rare for the military to replace seven four-star generals at the same time. It shows that there was a deep level of discontent with some top officers failing to put the government's policies into action," he said.

"Ongoing discussions about scrapping inter-Korean military agreements may gain momentum under the new leadership," Shin added.

The latest personnel change has left Lt. Gen. Kang Shin-chul the only remaining four-star general who was promoted during the Moon administation.

Although he survived the reshuffle, the fact that Kang was appointed as the deputy commander of the CFC means that he will be relatively less involved in the government's North Korea policies than other generals, Shin said.

Meanwhile, some military officials raised concerns of a leadership vacuum caused by the early retirements of three-star generals who were not promoted in the latest reshuffle.

"Lieutenant generals are the ones deeply involved in the military's operational planning. The personnel change may create a fresh environment in the military, but there are some concerns that this will lead to the early retirement of experienced three-star generals,” said another military official, asking not to be named.

The Korea Times · October 30, 2023

8. North Korea's next satellite launch unlikely to make deadline

insufficient help from Russia so far? Or none at all?

North Korea's next satellite launch unlikely to make deadline

The Korea Times · October 30, 2023

North Korea's Chollima-1 rocket, carrying a spy satellite, takes off from an undisclosed location in the country, May 31, in this photo released the following day by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap

Whether Pyongyang will receive Russian space tech remains unclear: experts

By Jung Min-ho

After failing to put a reconnaissance satellite into space two months ago for the second time this year, North Korea immediately vowed to give it a third try by the end of October.

But analysts and government officials said on Monday that North Korea will likely miss its own deadline, amid speculation that its collaboration with the Kremlin may be the reason for the delay after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared his open support for the effort last month.

Experts contacted by The Korea Times said Pyongyang’s caution suggests two things: major political pressure on North Korean officials and a possibility of Russian technicians providing support as part of their secret diplomatic deal. But the experts believe the extent of Russia's help will be limited because of their mutual mistrust.

“The failures in two previous attempts have significantly raised the political stakes. This time, North Korea has to succeed. That pressure must be enormous,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University. “Between trying again before the deadline and increasing the probability of success, North Korea appears to have chosen the latter.”

After the second failure, said to have been caused by an error in the “emergency blasting system,” North Korea claimed it was “not a big issue in terms of the reliability of cascade engines and the system,” showing its determination to push ahead with the project its leader Kim Jong-un labeled as a top priority.

“At the time, North Korea seemed confident that it would be able to fix the error on its own. But recently, signs have shown that it would rather work with Russia on the project,” said Chung Sung-yoon, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank. “But the Kremlin won’t provide key technologies unless it is necessary. Even if the Kremlin provides some support, it is expected to do so in accordance at its own pace. With the war in Ukraine and the international community critical of giving space technology to North Korea, Russian leaders have many factors to consider.”

In desperation need of North Korean ammunition for its troops in Ukraine, Russia, for now, would give signs that North Korean can gain much from the two countries’ partnership, but Russia's dependence will likely wane over time, Chung said.

“It’s possible that North Korea will never receive the core technology it needs,” he added.

Park reflected that the distrust between teh nations is mutual.

“Russia could certainly advise North Korea in terms of making improvements on the project. But the extent of its help would be limited as the rocket cannot be redesigned at this point,” he said. “Moreover, for Russia to know the fundamental problems, it needs to review all the technical details of the project, which North Korea won’t disclose.”

During Kim’s recent summit with Putin, he was taken to the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a space launch facility in the Amur Oblast region of the Russian Far East. When asked by reporters whether Russia would help North Korea build its own satellites, Putin replied, “That’s why we came here,” in remarks apparently indicating that it will.

A military spy satellite is among the high-tech weapons Kim vowed to develop, along with a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile and a nuclear-powered submarine.

The Korea Times · October 30, 2023

9. US, South Korea, Australia commence air-defense drills on heels of ground exercises

​Sustained high level exercises across multiple domains to ensure interoperability and readiness.

US, South Korea, Australia commence air-defense drills on heels of ground exercises

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · October 30, 2023

A-10C Thunderbolt IIs from the 25th Fighter Squadron take the runway ahead of Vigilant Defense at Osan Air Base, South Korea, Oct. 29, 2023. (Aubree Owens/U.S. Air Force)

CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — Over 130 U.S., South Korean and Australian aircraft began large-scale airpower drills this week to improve their teamwork, three days after U.S. and South Korean soldiers concluded a ground and air exercise.

Vigilant Defense, a five-day exercise that kicked off Monday, is taking place throughout South Korea with 25 types of aircraft, including U.S. F-35B Lightning IIs and F/A-18 Hornets, and South Korean F-35As and E-737 airborne early warning and control aircraft, according to a Ministry of National Defense news release Saturday.

A KC-30A multirole tanker transport from the Royal Australian Air Force will conduct aerial refueling drills, the release said. The Australian air force first appeared for the exercise last year when a KC-30A refueled South Korean KF-16s and U.S. F-35Bs.

Vigilant Defense follows a three-day ground and air exercise by South Korea’s Ground Operations Command. The unnamed training by over 5,000 troops demonstrated the allies’ response to surprise attacks and long-range artillery fire on South Korea, the command said in a news release Friday.

Vigilant Defense features various scenarios, including squadron flights, emergency air blockades and close air support, according to the National Defense Ministry.

The three air forces are training “to immediately respond to any provocation of an enemy,” South Korean air force Col. Kang Geun-shin said in the release.

The 7th Air Force in a news release Friday described the airpower exercise as a “regularly scheduled event” that is “not related to any current real-world threats or situations.”

“Combat readiness is perishable, and the training value of Vigilant Defense is one of the highlights of the year, as we put our skills together and learn to operate as a combined and joint team as the culmination of many months of planning,” the release said.

Around 100 U.S. and 140 South Korean aircraft flew roughly 1,600 sorties during last year’s large-scale aerial exercise, dubbed Vigilant Storm. The annual exercise was previously called Combined Flying Training Event and Vigilant Ace.

As Vigilant Storm was underway, North Korea launched 23 short-range ballistic and surface-to-air missiles on Nov. 2, 2022. The communist regime fired six more ballistic missiles the following day, including an intercontinental ballistic missile that flew about 466 miles before landing in the Sea of Japan, or the East Sea.

North Korean ruling party secretary Pak Jong Chon demanded Washington and Seoul stop Vigilant Storm and described the exercise as “a big mistake,” according to a state-run Korean Central News Agency report on Nov. 3.

North Korea has fired 21 ballistic missiles — four of them intercontinental range — in 14 days of testing so far this year.

David Choi

David Choi is based in South Korea and reports on the U.S. military and foreign policy. He served in the U.S. Army and California Army National Guard. He graduated from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · October 30, 2023

10. Hard-up North closes embassies in Africa as sanctions sting

Sanctions. Yes. Crackdowns on illicit activities by the host nation(I hope). Incompetence of diplomats from the north in conducting profit bearing activities?

Monday

October 30, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

Published: 30 Oct. 2023, 18:32

Hard-up North closes embassies in Africa as sanctions sting

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-10-30/national/northKorea/Hardup-North-closes-embassies-in-Africa-as-sanctions-sting/1901758

Angolan President Joao Lourenco addresses the 78th United Nations General Assembly at the UN’s headquarters in New York on Sept. 20. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

North Korea’s ambassador to Angola delivered his farewell greetings to the country's leader, Pyongyang’s state media reported Monday, formally drawing the curtain on the North’s diplomatic presence in a second African country.

Pyongyang’s top envoy to Luanda, Jo Pyong-chol, paid a visit to Angolan President Joao Lourenco on Friday and “politely” delivered leader Kim Jong-un's message, according to the North’s state-controlled Korean Central News Agency.

The closure of the North’s embassy in Angola was first reported by Angolan newspaper Jornal de Angola on Wednesday, a day after Ugandan media reported plans by the North to close its embassy in Uganda.

North Korea and Angola have maintained close ties since establishing relations in 1975, the same year the African country gained independence from Portugal as a Marxist-Leninist one-party state. Angola’s previous president, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, paid three visits to Pyongyang during his 38-year period in office. 

Although Angola previously welcomed North Korean workers and commissioned giant commemorative statues from North Korean state companies, Luanda reported to the United Nations Security Council in 2017 that it had terminated all contracts with Pyongyang and asked North Korean workers to leave the country to comply with international sanctions against the North for its illegal weapons programs.

According to the Ugandan magazine The Independent, North Korea’s ambassador to Uganda, Jong Tong-hak, told Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni that the regime is shuttering its embassy in Kampala as part of a “strategic” reduction of its embassies in Africa to “increase the efficiency of the country’s external institutions.”

The North has also maintained a close relationship with Uganda since its third president, Idi Amin, came to power in a coup d’etat in 1971.

North Korea has provided Uganda with substantial development assistance and training for its police and military forces, as well as helping the African country develop its domestic weapons manufacturing capabilities.

Although Uganda reported to the UN Security Council that it terminated military cooperation with the North in 2018, the Wall Street Journal published a report in December the same year that quoted an official of the Ugandan Defense Forces as saying “we never ended our ties.”

According to the report, North Korean mining and construction companies in Uganda changed their official registration to “Chinese” or “foreign,” and North Korean medical personnel have continued working in Ugandan hospitals.

But both Uganda and Angola voted in support of a resolution condemning the North for carrying out six nuclear tests at a meeting of the First Committee of the UN General Assembly on Friday in New York.

The closures of the Pyongyang’s missions in Luanda and Kampala come amid ongoing economic challenges in the North that have been exacerbated by international sanctions over the regime’s nuclear and missile programs.

But the North’s state-backed hackers continue to engage in “increasingly sophisticated cybertechniques” to steal funds and information, with Pyongyang’s proceeds from cryptocurrency theft amounting to almost $1.7 billion last year, according to a report submitted by the UN Panel of Experts on sanctions against North Korea to the Security Council on Friday.

South Korea’s Unification Ministry has condemned the North’s “black money” inflows and vowed to ramp up cooperation with the international community to shut off illicit sources of funding for Pyongyang’s weapons programs.

“The North Korean regime’s seizure of illicit funds to secure money for its rule and development of weapons of mass destruction is becoming bolder day by day, both in its methods and scale,” said ministry spokesman Koo Byoung-sam in a regular press briefing on Monday.

“The key to resolving all problems on the Korean Peninsula, and promoting the North’s denuclearization and promotion of human rights, lies in blocking the inflow of black money to Kim Jong-un’s regime,” Koo said.

BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]

11. Yoon, Kishida receive Kennedy’s ‘Profile in Courage Award’

Good for both of them. 

Monday

October 30, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

Published: 30 Oct. 2023, 17:04

Yoon, Kishida receive Kennedy’s ‘Profile in Courage Award’

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-10-30/national/diplomacy/Yoon-Kishida-receive-Kennedys-Profile-in-Courage-Award/1901578

Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol gives an acceptance speech through a prerecorded video after being awarded the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation's Profile in Courage Award alongside Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in a ceremony at the Kennedy Library and Museum in Boston on Sunday. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]

The U.S.-based John F. Kennedy Library Foundation jointly awarded Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for their efforts to improve bilateral relations despite ongoing historical issues on Sunday.

The foundation presented the two leaders with the International Profile in Courage Award "for working to improve relations between their countries despite domestic opposition stemming from historical issues" in a ceremony held at the Kennedy Library and Museum in Boston, the presidential office said Monday.

"I know that this award is a reminder of my solemn duty — a profound sense of responsibility placed upon the Republic of Korea, the United States and Japan to promote freedom and prosperity around the world by standing together in solidarity," Yoon said in a video acceptance speech.

He said he is "even more privileged" to share the honor with his "dear friend" Prime Minister Kishida.

Yoon also highlighted his respect for former U.S. President John F. Kennedy and the values he stood for, including courage, determination to accomplish social progress and scientific advancement — the spirit of the "New Frontier."

"He showed us that only those with real courage can bring about innovation and reform," Yoon said about the American president.

The event was attended by some 450 political and business figures, including U.S. Ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy, daughter of the late president and former first lady Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis and a former top envoy to Japan, and Staples CEO Ron Sargent, board chairman of the foundation.

Korean Ambassador to the United States Cho Hyun-dong received the award on behalf of Yoon and Japanese Consulate-General Kotaro Suzuki for Kishida.

U.S. Ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy, second from left, and her son Jack Schlossberg, left, and daughter Tatiana Schlossberg, right, present the International Profile in Courage award for Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, accepted by Korean Ambassador to the United States Cho Hyun-dong, third from right, Takeo Mori, adviser to the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan, and Kotaro Suzuki, consul general of Japan in Boston, during a ceremony at the John F. Kennedy Library in Boston, Massachusetts, Sunday. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Kishida, in turn, said political leaders "are vested with the responsibility to make our peoples' ties the solid foundation of peace and to aspire for a tomorrow that is better than today, not only by words but also by taking action" adding he will is "determined to fulfill this responsibility, working together" with U.S. President Joe Biden and President Yoon.

Seoul and Tokyo normalized bilateral relations that had deteriorated in recent years over historical disputes stemming from Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule and a trade spat.

The improvement came after the Yoon administration offered a plan to compensate Korean victims of Japanese wartime forced labor in March through a Korea-backed public foundation, which was met with mixed reactions domestically.

Yoon's bilateral visit to Tokyo for a summit with Kishida on March 16, the first trip of its kind in 12 years, led to a resumption of so-called shuttle diplomacy between the two countries' leaders, including a return trip by Kishida to Seoul in May.

On Aug. 18, Yoon and Kishida joined Biden at Camp David, near Washington, to "solidify a historic level of trilateral cooperation" between the United States and "two of its most important democratic allies," the foundation said.

It added the trilateral summit was made possible "because the leaders of South Korea and Japan have courageously worked to address sensitive historical issues that have prevented close cooperation."

The John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award was created in 1989 by members of President Kennedy's family to recognize and celebrate political courage.

Previous recipients include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, U.S. President Barack Obama and U.S. President George H.W. Bush.

This year's Profile in Courage recipients included five women Senators from South Carolina for forming a bipartisan coalition to filibuster a near-total abortion ban in their state.

BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]

12. Reshuffling is needed, but stability also matters (ROK Military)

Monday

October 30, 2023

 dictionary + A - A 

Published: 30 Oct. 2023, 20:10

Reshuffling is needed, but stability also matters

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-10-30/opinion/editorials/Reshuffling-is-needed-but-stability-also-matters/1901880

President Yoon Suk Yeol has reshuffled top posts of the military for the second time since taking office in May 2022. Following the first reshuffle last year, the commander in chief on Monday replaced the seven four-star generals entirely. President Yoon made the decision to re-energize the Armed Forces to show his strong determination to “maintain peace based on power.” But the new military leadership must stabilize swiftly under the increasing nuclear threat from North Korea amid the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East.

The most noticeable change in the latest reshuffle is the promotion of Naval Operations Commander Vice Adm. Kim Myung-soo, a three-star general, to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), a four-star general post. Such a promotion is the first in 53 years. In the past, only a four-star general could be promoted to the No. 2 position in the military. The president’s appointment reflects the need to strike a balance between military branches.

Adm. Kim, who graduated from the Naval Academy summa cum laude in the 1980s, served under current Defense Minister Shin Won-sik when both worked at the JCS. President Yoon named Kim as JCS chairman given his career as the captain of the destroyer King Sejong the Great and his expertise in the “three-axis” defense system, particularly when 90 percent of military operations are carried out at sea.

The president also made similar promotions for the remaining six four-star general posts of the Army, Navy and Air Force Chiefs of Staff, as well as the deputy commander of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command and the commanders of the Ground Operations Command and the Second Operations Command, which reflects the president’s will to replace the top brass who were appointed as three- or four-star generals in the dovish Moon Jae-in administration.

The reshuffle is also linked to the need to ease disgruntlement about the lethargic military leadership under former Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup. For instance, the Seoul metropolitan area was exposed to North Korea’s reconnaissance drones which flew across the border without any interruptions last December.

Given the Armed Forces’ mission to fight the enemy at any time, the government must also ensure stability. It is not desirable to force out the JCS chairman and the Army, Navy and Air Force chiefs of staff without letting them finish their two-year term. It takes a long time to raise an able general. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. JCS, retired after four years of full service for the country. Our government also needs to learn from the way Uncle Sam treats his generals.

13. Saudi-S Korea in a rich and wide mega-project embrace

​The ROK as a global pivotal state.

Saudi-S Korea in a rich and wide mega-project embrace

New joint venture deals spanning energy, infrastructure, tech and defense show Saudi has options outside of the US and China

asiatimes.com · by Scott Foster · October 30, 2023

Korea and Saudi Arabia announced their intent to “deepen and advance” bilateral relations in a joint statement issued on the occasion of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s visit to Riyadh from October 21-24.

The announcement was a reminder that while the US and Europe focus on the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, Saudi Arabia’s turn to Asia continues – and that China is not the only East Asian power displacing Western influence in the Middle East.

South Korean President Yoon led a delegation of government officials and business leaders that met with Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and other Saudi counterparts to discuss trade and investment, infrastructure, energy and defense.

The result was a long and detailed list of initiatives building on the “Future-oriented Strategic Partnership” announced by the two sides when the Saudi leader visited Seoul in November 2022. A Strategic Partnership Council will be established to coordinate their joint activities.

The Saudi-Korean Investment Forum 2023 was held during Yoon’s visit, with representatives of both countries’ public and private sectors participating. It resulted in more than 50 agreements ranging from hydrogen energy, water desalination and agriculture to electric vehicles, tourism and cybersecurity. The total value of the deals was reported at $15.6 billion.

The Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) alone reached 10 agreements with Korean companies covering collaboration in ammonia off-take and logistics, low-carbon energy exploration, information exchange related to Aramco’s Thermal Crude to Chemicals technology and collaboration in venture capital investment and start-up financing.

Four of the agreements were with S-Oil, which is 63.4%-owned by Aramco. Agreements were also clinched with Doosan to establish a casting and forging facility in Saudi Arabia to produce valves, pumps, compressors, gas and wind turbines, and other products; Korea Electric Power Corporation for a study of the ammonia supply chain; POSCO and Hyundai Oilbank to explore potential collaboration in blue hydrogen and ammonia; and the Export-Import Bank of Korea to develop strategic financing.

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Separately, Saudi Aramco signed contracts with Hyundai Engineering & Construction for the construction of a gas processing plant and with the Korea National Oil Corporation for a joint oil storage project during Yoon’s visit. South Korea is the third largest buyer of Saudi oil after China and Japan and depends on Saudi Arabia for nearly 40% of its crude oil supply.

A handout picture provided by Energy giant Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil and gas company, shows its Shaybah Producing and Shaybah NGL in eastern Saudi Arabia. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Musleh Al-Khthami

Private investments in refining, petrochemicals and hydrocarbon resource technology are a priority for both sides. The joint statement noted that work on the Shaheen petrochemical project in Ulsan has been progressing smoothly since a groundbreaking ceremony last March.

The joint statement laid out a scenario that sums up the Future-oriented Strategic Partnership in the energy sector, with South Korea acknowledging Saudi Arabia’s “pioneering role” in the future of energy and avowing to “strengthen cooperation” across the gamut of nuclear, renewable, wind, solar and clean hydrogen energies.

On the latter, the two sides signed the Hydrogen Oasis Initiative (H2Oasis) to strengthen their partnership and support project developments in the fuel.

Moreover, Hyundai Motor and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund will form a joint venture to build an auto-assembly plant in Saudi Arabia with a capacity of 50,000 internal combustion engine and electric vehicles per year. Production is scheduled to begin in 2025.

Naver, South Korea’s largest internet company, signed an agreement with the Saudi Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing and Ministry of Investment to create a cloud-based digital twin platform for smart city urban planning, monitoring and disaster prevention in the cities of Riyadh, Medina, Jeddah, Dammam and Mecca.

Naver senior executive Chae Seon-ju hopes that “Naver will serve as a bridge for the export of Korean IT [information technology] startups to the Middle East.” His efforts should be supported by cooperation between the two countries in the protection of intellectual property.

The joint statement notes that the dispatch of South Korean experts has contributed to the development of Saudi Arabia’s National IP Strategy of Saudi Arabia and capacity-building for Saudi patent examiners.

In addition, a South Korean consortium led by food and beverage company Nongshim will provide “smart farm” infrastructure to Saudi Greenhouse for year-round production of strawberries. Temperature, humidity and sunlight in the indoor gardens are monitored and regulated automatically.

The two countries also celebrated the 50th anniversary of Korea-Saudi cooperation in the field of construction and agreed that South Korea would support Saudi Arabia’s large-scale economic development projects.

These include the NEOM industrial, residential and recreation project in the northwest of the country, which will be powered by renewable energy, and the Red Sea tourism project along the coast.

The joint statement does not provide much detail on military matters, but does contain a brief section entitled “Strengthening Cooperation in the fields of Defense, Defense Industry and Combating Terrorism.”

President Yoon was reported to have had a successful meeting with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman Al Saud and Minister of National Guard Abdullah bin Bandar bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.

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According to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, Defense Minister Khalid “said that the two countries’ defense industry cooperation, which is close to producing results, will be a new milestone in their partnership. He also expressed hope for next-generation defense industry cooperation and proposed a comprehensive partnership that includes technological collaboration and joint production.”

Yoon’s office told the media that he had “called for deepening the scope of defense cooperation to include defense training, joint exercises, visits to military bases and people-to-people exchanges.”

His security advisor Kim Tae-hyo said that discussions in areas including missile defense and artillery are “in the final stage,” according to Yonhap.

South Korea’s first prototype of its 4.5-generation fighter, officially dubbed KF-21 Boramae, was revealed at the Korea Aerospace Industries Co facility in Sacheon, South Korea. Image: Screengrab / CNN

This is the realpolitik side of Saudi Vision 2030, the long-term national development strategy developed by Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and his Council of Economic and Development Affairs to build “a vibrant society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation.”

“In order to achieve a thriving economy, the kingdom will diversify its economy and create dynamic job opportunities… through commitments to education, entrepreneurship and innovation, unlocking underdeveloped industries such as manufacturing, renewable energy and tourism,” the vision statement says.

This is not the vision of a Saudi society that wants or needs to choose between only the US or China. And it’s a vision that fits with South Korea’s own modernization ambitions in an increasingly multipolar world.

Follow this writer on Twitter: @ScottFo83517667

asiatimes.com · by Scott Foster · October 30, 2023

​14. US needs 'strategic clarity' on North Korea deterrence: report

More on the RAND - Asan report.

US needs 'strategic clarity' on North Korea deterrence: report

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · October 30, 2023

Asan, RAND Corporation suggest redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Korean Peninsula as policy option

By Ji Da-gyum

Published : Oct. 30, 2023 - 15:49

Dr. Bruce W. Bennett, from the RAND Corporation, briefs the report 'Options for Strengthening ROK Nuclear Assurance,' which was jointly produced by the Seoul-based Asan Institute and the RAND Corporation, headquartered in Santa Monica. The news briefing is held at an Asan Institute's headquarters in Seoul. (Photo - Asan Institute)

The United States should reconsider its policy of strategic ambiguity and shift toward one of strategic clarity in response to North Korea's escalating nuclear threats, one South Korean think tank said in a joint report with a US think tank in a press briefing Monday.

The Seoul-based Asan Institute and the RAND Corporation, headquartered in Santa Monica, California, emphasized what they say is the need for the two allies to adapt their current nuclear policies and measures to enhance nuclear assurance for South Korea corresponding to North Korea's advancing nuclear capabilities.

The two think tanks suggested that the re-deployment of US tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula in stages will be the "most difficult to implement" but will likely have "the greatest impact" on nuclear assurance for South Korea.

The report estimates that, in North Korea, the "300-weapon threshold could almost be reached (by) 2030" if there is "no increase in North Korean nuclear weapon production," based on the estimated speed of such production.

A single nuclear weapon could result in around 2 million fatalities and severe injuries within the densely populated capital city of Seoul, the report added. The estimate is based on the calculation that the yield of approximately 230 kilotons was produced during North Korea's sixth nuclear test in September 2017.

"ROK assurance in the US nuclear umbrella has faltered because of these growing threats and ambiguity in the US commitment to ROK security, leading to increased calls for the ROK to develop its own nuclear weapons," the report read, referring to South Korea by the acronym of its official name, the Republic of Korea.

A nuclear umbrella is a guarantee from a nuclear weapons state to defend a non-nuclear state, in this case that the US will defend South Korea. The US' nuclear umbrella is part of the US' strategy of extended deterrence, which is its commitment to deter or respond to coercion and attacks on US allies and partners using the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.

"Because of these developments, the level of strategic ambiguity of the US nuclear umbrella is no longer appropriate for either deterrence or ROK assurance," the report continued.

Hence, the US could consider embracing an approach of strategic clarity, similar to its measures taken to defend NATO in the 1960s during the Cold War era, to counter nuclear threats posed by the then-Soviet Union, according to the report.

The report stated that Seoul and Washington "really have little choice but to balance the continuing North Korean nuclear weapon developments by achieving a degree of nuclear weapon parity that will assure the ROK people" in light of North Korea's development of its nuclear weapons program.

The report argues that one potential approach to improving the strategic clarity of the US nuclear umbrella would be to commit some US nuclear weapons to enhancing South Korea's security.

This approach would involve four steps that could be implemented gradually, with each stage representing a nuclear posture option designed to respond to North Korea's nuclear weapon buildup, and to freeze North Korean nuclear weapons production and the production of critical nuclear materials. If the US and South Korea are unable to halt North Korea's nuclear production at any given stage of the plan, they can proceed to the next stage.

The approach would begin with the modernization or construction of US nuclear weapon storage facilities at the US Kunsan Air Base in North Jeolla Province and at the Osan Air Base in Gyeonggi Province.

The second stage would involve dedicating all or a portion of the nuclear weapons to a US ballistic missile submarine operating in the Pacific Ocean so as to target North Korea.

The third stage would be the modernization of around 100 tactical nuclear weapons at South Korea's expense. The weapons would be stored in the US but remain committed to supporting South Korea.

The final step of the approach would be the deployment of a limited number of US tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea, which would be stored in the previously prepared nuclear weapon storage facilities at the US Air Force's bases on South Korean territory.

If all four stages are executed, the US could commit up to around 180 US nuclear weapons solely to South Korea in the next few years and deploy eight to 12 B61 nuclear bombs in South Korea, which would serve both symbolic and operational purposes.

The US deployed tactical nuclear weapons on the peninsula between 1958 and 1991. In December 1991, the two Koreas signed the Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, pledging not to produce, possess, store, deploy or use nuclear weapons.

"If ROK and US threats to implement these steps fail to lead to a North Korean nuclear weapon production freeze ... further commitments of US nuclear forces in future years could sustain the appearance of nuclear weapon parity with North Korea and avoid the appearance that the ROK needs to produce its own nuclear weapons," the report said.

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · October 30, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com