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Quotes of the Day:
"Since we cannot know what knowledge will be most needed in the future, it is senseless to try to teach it in advance. Instead, we should try to turn out people who love learning so much and learn so well that they will be able to learn what needs to be learned."
- John Holt
"We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us. . . . The lives that you admire, the attitudes that seem noble to you are not the result of training at home, by a father, or by masters at school, they have sprung from beginnings of a very different order, by reaction from the influence of everything evil or commonplace that prevailed round about them. They represent a struggle and a victory.”
- Marcel Proust
"One day, my grandson asked me, 'Grandpa, were you a hero in the war?' I replied, 'No, I'm not a hero, but I have served in a company full of them.'
- Major Dick Winters
1. Press Statement of Kim Yo Jong, Vice Department Director of C.C., WPK
2. “North Korea may launch a large-scale provocation… We need to maintain deterrence against North Korea and strengthen sanctions and information warfare.”
3. Yoon says 1st NCG session will be important starting point for strong extended deterrence
4. Top nuclear envoys of S. Korea, U.S., Japan to meet this week for talks on N. Korea's ICBM test
5. U.S. open to dialogue with N. Korea on 'any topic' including de-escalation steps: state dept.
6. 50 dead or missing in downpours after 5 more bodies recovered from underground road
7. U.S. welcomes Yoon's visit to Ukraine, encourages others to join: State Dept.
8. N. Korea is legally obligated to complete, verifiable denuclearization: Seoul foreign ministry
9. Number of N. Korean defectors entering S. Korea nearly doubles on-quarter in Q2
10. U.S. nuclear-capable submarine making port call in Busan for first time in decades: Campbell
11. Yoon says N. Korea should be made to not dare use nuclear weapons
12. NATO Can Help Create a Global Security Architecture
13. U.S. national crosses military demarcation line into N. Korea: UN Command
14. The North Korean Scenario That Should Keep You Up at Night
15. Nuclear capable US submarine makes first port call in South Korea in four decades
16. North Korea arrests US soldier who crossed the border from the demilitarized zone without authorization
1. Press Statement of Kim Yo Jong, Vice Department Director of C.C., WPK
This is Kim Yo Jong's statement that has gained a lot of attention. The simplest interpretation is that Kim Jong Un will never give up his nuclear weapons.
As per normal operating procedure the regime blames everything on US hostile policy.
However, there are some alternative ways to view this.
First there is this statement:
The U.S. should know that its bolstered extended deterrence system and excessively extended military alliance system, a threatening entity, will only make the DPRK go farther away from the negotiating table desired by it.
This may be interpreted by some as a signal that the regime is actually willing to negotiate if only the US takes the right steps. I do not believe that is the case but there are those who believe in engagement who may argue for this interpretation.
Another way to support the engagers' view is that the extreme rhetoric is designed to make Kim Jong Un appear to be in a position of strength so that he can then allow negotiations to take place while he is saving face and making it look like the US is coming to the negotiating table due to regime pressure. Kim will demand some kind of concessions before he negotiates and those who believe in engagement will advocate that the US make concessions such as halt exercises or halt deployment of strategic assets.
That said, if we are to give into regime pressure and make concessions to jump start negotiations, it will not cause Kim to come to the negotiating table and act in good faith. Instead Kim will assess his political warfare strategy (to subvert the ROK and drive a wedge in the alliance) and his blackmail diplomacy strategy (the use of tension and provocations to to gain political and economic concessions) as successful. If assesses his strategies as successful he will continue to execute them rather than seek denuclearization by negotiation.
However, the interpretation I prefer is that Kim Jong Un is under enormous internal pressure due to his failed strategy and his deliberate policy decisions to prioritize nuclear weapons and missile development over the welfare of the Korean people in the north. We know since the start of COVID Paradox and Kim's implementation of draconian population and resources control measures that the level of suffering among the population has gotten worse and the conditions inside north Korea could make the Arduous March and great famine of the 1990s. I subscribe to Dr Jung Pak's eternal question of who does Kim Jong Un fear the most: The ROK/US combined military or the Korean people in the north? It is the Korean people in the north (especially dangerous to the regime when armed with information). Therefore, this heightened rhetoric from Kim Jong Un along with the ICBM test and other actions are an attempt to "externalize" the threats to the regime to justify the sacrifices and suffering the Korean people must make in the name of national defense (which is really the defense of the regime).
So how should we respond? The number one priority is to continue to sustain a high level of readiness. Deterrence and defense must be paramount because no one can know for sure what Kim may do or worse how he might miscalculate. We must ensure we never use exercises as a bargaining chip or do anything to undermine readiness by changing the false hope of conducting negotiations like we have for the past three decades.
Yes we can continue to gain the support of the international community to support diplomatic actions. We know that China and Russia will block any UN action for further sanctions and they are complicit in north Korean sanctions evasion activities. That said, we must still continue to try to aggressively enforce sanctions.
What we must really do is to try to exert pressure in a way that will make Kim feel the pain and influence those around him to realize they are supporting a failed strategy.
We need to embark on a comprehensive information campaign like we have never executed before. It must be full spectrum focusing on deterrence, exposing Kim's failed strategy, on influencing the regime elite, the 2d tier military leaders and the general population. it must incorporate human rights and ultimately must be to support the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.
Press Statement of Kim Yo Jong, Vice Department Director of C.C., WPK
https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1689595537-153903548/press-statement-of-kim-yo-jong-vice-department-director-of-c-c-wpk/
Date: 17/07/2023 | Source: KCNA.kp (En) | Read original version at source
Pyongyang, July 17 (KCNA) -- Kim Yo Jong, vice department director of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, made the following press statement on Monday:
Recently the U.S. side builds up public opinion that the DPRK does not respond to dialogue.
This is a tendency reflecting the uneasy and anxious mind of the U.S. which has continuously witnessed the thing it most fears in recent days.
The present situation in the Korean peninsula has reached such a phase that the possibility of an actual armed conflict and even the outbreak of a nuclear war is debated, going far beyond the phase of acute confrontation between the DPRK and the U.S. created in 2017.
As I had already clarified who is entirely responsible for the situation, this time I am going to refer to the absurdity of "dialogue without any preconditions" and "opened door of diplomacy" much touted by the U.S. in public.
We had held a series of dialogues and negotiations with the U.S. since the 1990s. Therefore, we are aware that lurking behind the present U.S. administration's proposal for "dialogue without any preconditions" is a trick to prevent the thing it fears from happening again.
Even if the DPRK-U.S. dialogue is supposed to start, it is as clear as noonday that the present U.S. administration will put nothing but only "CVID" on the negotiation table.
Today “denuclearization” is an outdated word to be found only in a dictionary of dead words.
No matter how hard the U.S. racks its brain, it would be impossible for it to find out the terms and bargaining chip for negotiation with the DPRK.
We can predict the possibility that the U.S. may play such old trick as a temporary halt to the U.S.-south Korea joint military drills, to which its preceding president was committed a few years ago, or merely please someone with such reversible things as reduced combined military drills and halt to the deployment of strategic assets.
Such a slender trick for earning time can never work on us.
Once decided, the strategic assets of the U.S. will be deployed in the Korean peninsula in a matter of 10 hours and 20 days will be enough for it to resume the joint military exercises by re-deploying troops.
We are well aware that if the U.S. employs such a strategic trick as the end of its military presence in south Korea and withdraws all its troops and military equipment from south Korea, which is something fantastical, it will take only 15 days for the overseas-stationed U.S. troops to return to the "Republic of Korea" and turn it into a military vantage point.
It is as easy as pie for the U.S. political circles to exclude the DPRK from the list of "sponsors of terrorism" today but re-list it tomorrow.
In the final analysis, we are well aware that what the U.S. can offer to the DPRK in the dialogue is all changeable and reversible.
However, what the U.S. wants from the DPRK is the "complete and irreversible denuclearization".
Then, can we exchange the eternal security of our state for immediate benefit, pinning our faith on such reversible commitment?
We do not act against our own interests.
The U.S. might be well aware why the DPRK has no interest in the dialogue with it.
Even through the recent UNSC meeting on our launch of new-type ICBM, we could clearly confirm once again how our rivals have prolonged their policy toward the DPRK and what a sweet dream they have, along with the transfer of power from Moon Jae In to Yoon Suk Yeol, and from Trump to Biden.
In the United States of America and the "Republic of Korea," any agreements, signed and committed by preceding presidents, are instantly reversed once new regimes emerge.
That's why we have to adopt a long-term strategy against the "ROK", the top-class stooge of America, and the USA, the empire of world evils, not such individuals as Yoon Suk Yeol or Biden, and build up a mechanism for guaranteeing the prospective security of the DPRK on the basis of overwhelming deterrent.
It is a daydream for the U.S. to think that it can stop the advance of the DPRK and, furthermore, achieve irreversible disarmament through the interim suspension of joint military exercises, halt to the deployment of strategic assets and the reversible sanction relief.
We squarely face up and attach importance to the reality.
The reality before the DPRK is not dialogue repeatedly touted by the U.S. like an automatic teller machine but the nuclear strategic bomber flying near the DPRK regardless of time, air espionage of the U.S. violating our territorial sovereignty, convocation of the "nuclear consultative group" meeting openly discussing the use of nukes against the DPRK and the entry of U.S. strategic nuclear submarine into waters of the Korean peninsula for the first time in 40-odd years.
The U.S. should know that its bolstered extended deterrence system and excessively extended military alliance system, a threatening entity, will only make the DPRK go farther away from the negotiating table desired by it.
The most appropriate way for ensuring peace and stability in the Korean peninsula at present is to deter the U.S. highhanded and arbitrary practices in the position of might and with enough exercise of power, rather than solving the problem with the gangster-like Americans in a friendly manner.
The DPRK is ready for resolutely countering any acts of violating its sovereignty and territorial integrity, threatening the wellbeing of its people and destroying peace and stability of the Korean peninsula.
The U.S. should stop its foolish act of provoking the DPRK even by imperiling its security.
What the U.S. witnessed in a worry a few days ago is just a beginning of the DPRK’s already-launched military offensive. -0-
www.kcna.kp (Juche112.7.17.)
2. “North Korea may launch a large-scale provocation… We need to maintain deterrence against North Korea and strengthen sanctions and information warfare.”
Comments on Kim Yo Jong from a number of us. This is google translation of a Voice of America report.
“North Korea may launch a large-scale provocation… We need to maintain deterrence against North Korea and strengthen sanctions and information warfare.”
2023.7.18
https://www.voakorea.com/a/7184748.html
US experts predicted that North Korea may launch large-scale provocations such as ICBM launches and nuclear tests while repeatedly announcing statements threatening the United States. He suggested that all available tools such as diplomacy, sanctions, and information warfare should be actively utilized while maintaining strong deterrence against North Korea. Reporter Jo Eun-jeong reports.
Bruce Klingner, a senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, suggested the possibility of future provocations in relation to the successive discourses of North Korean Vice President Kim Yo-jong.
[Soundbite: Researcher Klingner] “So we could expect continued missile launches of various ranges more provocative if they were to do a missile launch over Japan out to a far distance in the Pacific Ocean. If they were to clearly demonstrate that they do have re-entry vehicle capability, or multi warhead capabilities, and also the long expected seven nuclear test which both Washington and Seoul have said was imminent for over a year now.”
Bruce Klingner, a senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, had a video interview with VOA reporter Cho Eun-jung on the 17th.
Researcher Klingner said in a phone call with VOA on the 17th, "We can expect North Korea to continue firing missiles of various ranges."
In particular, it said it could launch a missile that fell over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean, show off its re-entry vehicle capability and multiple warhead capabilities, or launch its seventh nuclear test, which the US and South Korea have been saying for over a year is imminent.
Researcher Klingner said that North Korea did not increase the level of provocations and threats in response to the moves of the United States or South Korea, and analyzed that North Korea has already been trying to widen the gap between the United States and South Korea with missile launches since last year and make them abandon joint military exercises. I did.
In a statement published on the Korean Central News Agency on the 17th, Vice Minister Kim Yeo-jung argued that the more the US strengthens its extended deterrence and military alliance system, the more it will only alienate North Korea from the talks.
She said it was "delusional" to think that North Korea's irreversible disarmament could be achieved through a temporary suspension of joint exercises, suspension of deployment of strategic assets, and easing of sanctions.
David Maxwell, vice president of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center, interviewed VOA reporter Cho Eun-jung via video on the 17th.
David Maxwell, deputy head of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center, a former chief of staff for the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, also said that North Korea would continue its current provocation trend, predicting that an ICBM or nuclear test would be carried out when North Korea "deems it too desperate or can achieve its intended purpose." I saw.
[Soundbite: Vice President Maxwell] “If they see that they can gain an advantage by forcing either a split in the ROK US Alliance, it could be directed to try to unhinge the nuclear Consultative Group and undermine the restored confidence in the extended deterrence that has been brought to bear or if their internal problems are so severe that they've got to do something in order to continue to generate that external threat.”
“If North Korea determines that it could tear the US-ROK alliance apart by dismantling the Nuclear Consultative Group and undermining confidence in extended deterrence, or the internal problems in North Korea are so serious that action must be taken to continue creating external threats,” Maxwell said. In the situation,” he predicted, he could launch an ICBM or launch a nuclear test.
Deputy Representative Maxwell said that North Korea could misjudge and launch some kind of armed provocation that could lead to conflict, and that the United States and South Korea should maintain the highest level of readiness.
North Korea released a photo saying it had test-fired a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-18 in the presence of Chairman Kim Jong-un.
“North Korea is trying to be recognized as a nuclear power.”
In an email sent to VOA on the 17th, Evans Revere, former senior deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific, said Kim Yeo-jung's remarks were "the most authoritative and clear statement of North Korea's position that North Korea is a de facto nuclear weapon state and will continue to do so in the future." I foresaw that I would try.
North Korea, which has achieved its goal of becoming a de facto nuclear power, is moving toward its next goal of involving the United States in the "disarmament talks."
[Former Deputy Assistant Secretary Revere] “North Korea's goal in such talks would be to get the United States to accept the reality of a nuclear North Korea and treat Pyongyang as a nuclear power. By engaging in such talks, Washington would do exactly that. Importantly, by stating that US measures to temporarily halt joint military exercises, suspend deployment of strategic assets, or ease sanctions would not be acceptable, Kim Yo Jong has (helpfully) previewed the North Korean position at prospective future arms control talks. North Korea wants much more than this. We should be wary.”
Evans Revere, former Senior Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Revere said, "North Korea's goal in these talks is to get the United States to acknowledge the reality of North Korea's nuclear possession and to treat it as a nuclear power. By participating in such talks, the United States will do exactly that." .
"Kim Yeo-jung announced in advance North Korea's position in future disarmament talks by stating that US measures such as temporary suspension of joint military exercises, suspension of deployment of strategic assets, and easing of sanctions were unacceptable," he said. "North Korea wants much more than this. So we have to be vigilant,” he said.
“North Korea is using disarmament talks to weaken and ultimately end the US-ROK alliance, force the US to withdraw or at least reduce its forces on and around the Korean Peninsula, remove US tactical and strategic weapons from the East Asia region, and “We are trying to create conditions in which North Korea can achieve strategic domination of the Korean Peninsula using its nuclear capabilities,” he said.
“Available tools such as sanctions and information warfare must be actively utilized”
Anthony Ruggiero, a senior research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who served as director of North Korea at the White House National Security Council, pointed out to VOA on the 17th that North Korea has been provoking over the past two years, but the United Nations and the United States have not taken "real action."
The United States and South Korea's joint training and strengthening of readiness are only measures that reversed the previous suspension of training.
Anthony Ruggiero Senior Fellow, Foundation for the Promotion of Democracy.
Researcher Ruggiero said that while strengthening military posture against North Korea, diplomatically, we should focus on detecting sanctions evasion.
[Soundbite: Researcher Ruggiero] “Certainly if there's more to be done on the military side, I would do that. On the diplomatic side. I think they've made clear that they're ready to talk whenever North Korea is and they're not ready. So instead of using diplomatic capital to call Security Council meetings that are a waste of time, I would be focused more on engaging with countries that are still harboring North Korean Representatives who are engaged in sanctions evasion and cyber activities.”
Researcher Ruggiero pointed out, "The United States said that it could talk whenever North Korea is ready, but it made it clear that North Korea is not ready for dialogue."
“Therefore, instead of using diplomatic capital to convene the Security Council, we should focus more on working with countries that still harbor North Korean representatives involved in sanctions evasion and cyber activities,” he said.
At the same time, he said, we should urge them to stop doing business with North Korea by tracing the network of companies, individuals, and banks involved in North Korea's sanctions evasion.
He also said that North Korea's main sources of funding should be focused on cyber, overseas workers, and coal exports.
Vice-Chairman Maxwell suggested strengthening information warfare, saying, "The United States and South Korea are not using enough information to actually put pressure on Kim Jong-un."
Vice President Maxwell said that "Kim Jong-un's strategy is failing, and that Kim Jong-un's policies are the cause of suffering for the North Korean people," he said.
[Soundbite: Vice President Maxwell] “I think the only way we're going to see change by Kim Jong Un is if those around him can exert a subtle kind of pressure to get him to change direction.”
“The only way to change Kim Jong-un is to apply subtle pressure from those around him to change his direction,” Maxwell said.
This is Cho Eun-jung from VOA News.
3. Yoon says 1st NCG session will be important starting point for strong extended deterrence
This could be "make it or break it". The members of the group need to manage exceptions. They have a lot of work to do - a lot of foundational work that is organizational and procedural that must be completed before substantive work can begin. One of the major tasks must be to develop a solid information program not only focused on the Kim family regime but also to inform and educate the publics in Korea and the US to ensure thorough understanding of extended deterrence.
Yoon says 1st NCG session will be important starting point for strong extended deterrence | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr
North Korea 10:51 July 18, 2023
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, July 18 (Yonhap) — President Yoon Suk Yeol said Tuesday that the first meeting of a South Korea-U.S. nuclear consultation body is expected to be an important starting point for building strong and effective extended deterrence.
Yoon made the remark during a Cabinet meeting shortly after the inaugural session of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) got under way in Seoul to discuss ways to strengthen the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to defending South Korea with all of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.
“The first NCG meeting will be an important starting point for building strong and effective South Korea-U.S. extended deterrence,” he said at the presidential office.
“It will carry out actual efforts to block North Korea’s nuclear and missile threat at its source through a South Korea-U.S. alliance upgraded to a new nuclear-based paradigm,” he added.
The NCG’s objective is to strengthen extended deterrence, discuss nuclear and strategic planning, and manage the threat to the nonproliferation regime posed by North Korea.
The group was established during a summit between Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington in April. It will meet every quarter and report the results to each president.
The first session is being led by Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo and U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell.
President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the presidential office in Seoul on July 18, 2023. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)
4. Top nuclear envoys of S. Korea, U.S., Japan to meet this week for talks on N. Korea's ICBM test
The alliance(s) and trilateral cooperation just keeps getting stronger with each morth Korean action.
Top nuclear envoys of S. Korea, U.S., Japan to meet this week for talks on N. Korea's ICBM test | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · July 17, 2023
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, July 17 (Yonhap) -- The top nuclear negotiators of South Korea, the United States and Japan will meet in Japan this week to discuss North Korea's latest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test, the U.S. State Department said Monday.
The trilateral meeting will be held Thursday in Karuizawa, involving U.S. Special Representative for the DPRK Sung Kim, Japan's Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau Director General Takehiro Funakoshi and South Korea's Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Kim Gunn, according to the department.
"The three officials will discuss maintaining close trilateral cooperation, especially following the DPRK's unlawful ICBM launch on July 12, which was Pyongyang's 12th ICBM launch since the beginning of 2022," it said of the upcoming meeting in a released statement.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.
The statement added that the U.S. special envoy "looks forward to meeting him and Special Representative Kim Gunn for an in-depth discussion about promoting peace and security in the region and encouraging the DPRK to return to substantive negotiations."
The scheduled meeting comes after the United Nations Security Council failed to impose additional sanctions on North Korea for its latest ICBM test due to opposition from China and Russia, both veto power-wielding permanent members of the Security Council and friendly supporters of North Korea.
North Korea fires a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile on July 12, 2023, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un guided the launch and the missile flew 1,001 kilometers for 4,491 seconds at a maximum altitude of 6,648 km before splashing into the East Sea, the North said. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
bdk@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · July 17, 2023
5. U.S. open to dialogue with N. Korea on 'any topic' including de-escalation steps: state dept.
But we will make no concessions.
U.S. open to dialogue with N. Korea on 'any topic' including de-escalation steps: state dept. | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · July 18, 2023
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, July 17 (Yonhap) -- The United States is open to meet with North Korea without preconditions on any topic including discussion on steps that both sides could take with the aim of improving the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, a state department spokesperson said Monday, after North Korea dismissed U.S. overtures for dialogue as a "trick."
The spokesperson also insisted that diplomacy is the "only viable path forward."
"When we say "without preconditions," it means that we would welcome dialogue on any of a wide range of topics of mutual concern," the spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency in an email.
"This could include discussion of practical steps both sides could take to address the security situation in the region," the state department official added, asking not to be identified.
North Korea fires a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on July 12, 2023, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
The remark comes in response to a statement issued Monday (Korea time) by Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, in which she argued that the U.S. offer to meet without any preconditions is only a "trick."
"In the final analysis, we are well aware that what the U.S. can offer to the DPRK in the dialogue is all changeable and reversible. However, what the U.S. wants from the DPRK is the "complete and irreversible denuclearization"," said the statement, carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.
"The U.S. should know that its bolstered extended deterrence system and excessively extended military alliance system, a threatening entity, will only make the DPRK go farther away from the negotiating table desired by it," Kim added, according to the released statement.
The statement came after North Korea test fired a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Wednesday, which, according to the state department, marked the country's 12th ICBM launch since the start of last year.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · July 18, 2023
6. 50 dead or missing in downpours after 5 more bodies recovered from underground road
(4th LD) 50 dead or missing in downpours after 5 more bodies recovered from underground road | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · July 17, 2023
(ATTN: UPDATES with the latest tally in headline, lead, para 6)
SEOUL, July 17 (Yonhap) -- Five more bodies have been recovered from a flooded underground road in central South Korea, bringing the number of people dead or missing in recent downpours to 50, officials said Monday.
The Osong underground roadway in the central city of Cheongju was flooded Saturday when a nearby river overflowed after an embankment was brought down by rising water levels due to heavy rain.
Four more bodies were recovered overnight, including the driver of a submerged bus, and one more body was found at 8:10 p.m., bringing the death toll to 14.
The authorities said the rescue operation concluded with the recovery of the last missing person's body.
Through a search operation, fire authorities found 17 vehicles waterlogged in the underpass, surpassing their previous estimate.
A search operation is under way on July 16, 2023, in a flooded underground tunnel in the central town of Osong. (Yonhap)
Nationwide, 41 people, including 19 in the southeastern province of North Gyeongsang, have been reported to have been killed in the aftermath of the heavy rains that have pounded the country since last week, according to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters.
Nine people remained missing, including eight in North Gyeongsang Province, while 34 people have been reportedly injured.
Across the country, 10,765 people evacuated their homes due to rain damage, according to the office.
Downpours have also damaged 789 public facilities and 352 other private properties, mostly located in the southern part of the country.
A total of 4,348 people from 2,473 households across the nation have not been able to return to their homes due to temporary evacuation.
According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters, more than 500 millimeters of rain have pounded central and lower regions since July 9, including 626 mm in Gongju, South Chungcheong Province, 614 mm in the nearby county of Cheongyang, 580 mm in the central city of Sejong and 522 mm in Mungyeong, North Gyeongsang Province.
Heavy rain warnings were in place for the Chungcheong provinces, southern regions and Jeju Island as of Monday morning, and the weather agency said the Jeolla provinces and nearby areas may experience further rain of up to 40 mm per hour.
Through Tuesday, up to 200 mm of rain has been forecast for Chungcheong and southern regions, and between 10 mm to 100 mm for the rest of the country.
Firefighters move a truck out of a submerged area in the southeastern port city of Busan, in this photo provided by fire authorities on July 16, 2023. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
pbr@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · July 17, 2023
7. U.S. welcomes Yoon's visit to Ukraine, encourages others to join: State Dept.
Global Pivotal State. A partner in the Arsenal of Democracy
U.S. welcomes Yoon's visit to Ukraine, encourages others to join: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · July 18, 2023
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, July 17 (Yonhap) -- The United States welcomes South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's recent trip to Ukraine, a state department spokesperson said Monday, calling on all other countries to join in supporting the war-torn country.
Yoon made a surprise trip to Ukraine on Saturday, during which he met with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and promised to provide a comprehensive package of security, humanitarian and reconstruction assistance, dubbed the "Ukraine Peace and Solidarity Initiative."
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) shakes hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prior to their talks at the presidential palace in Kyiv on July 15, 2023, in this photo provided by South Korea's presidential office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
"We welcome the visit. We welcomed the president's expression of support," state department Press Secretary Matthew Miller said of Yoon's trip to Ukraine when asked in a press briefing.
"We always think it's important when other foreign leaders can make the trip to Ukraine to speak firsthand with President Zelenskyy and other members of the Ukrainian government, to see the destruction that has been inflicted on that country by Russia," added Miller.
Yoon's trip to Ukraine came at the end of his two-nation trip that took him to Lithuania for a North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit and to Poland on an official visit.
"We encourage every country in the world to join us in supporting Ukraine," Miller told the press briefing.
Department of State Press Secretary Matthew Miller is seen taking a question during a daily press briefing at the department in Washington on July 17, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)
The Yoon-Zelenskyy meeting marked the second of its kind following their first meeting on the sidelines of a Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima, Japan in May.
Yoon had promised additional non-lethal assistance and US$100 million worth of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine after his first meeting with the Ukrainian president in May.
He said Seoul will provide non-lethal military supplies and an additional $50 million worth of humanitarian aid under the Ukraine Peace and Solidarity Initiative.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · July 18, 2023
8. N. Korea is legally obligated to complete, verifiable denuclearization: Seoul foreign ministry
N. Korea is legally obligated to complete, verifiable denuclearization: Seoul foreign ministry | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chang Dong-woo · July 18, 2023
SEOUL, July 18 (Yonhap) -- North Korea faces no choice but to seek complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization (CVID) as it is a legal obligation imposed by the United Nations Security Council, Seoul's foreign ministry said Tuesday.
"(CVID) is an international legal obligation imposed on North Korea by eleven unanimous resolutions of the United Nations Security Council, leaving no room for choice," the ministry said in a statement.
The statement was issued in response to one released by Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, on Monday. She criticized Washington's policies of strengthening its extended deterrence and military alliance with South Korea, arguing that such actions would only make it difficult for Pyongyang to engage in dialogue.
The ministry said it was impossible to ignore the North's "deceptive behavior" of continuously enhancing its nuclear and missile capabilities while having agreed to denuclearize multiple times over the past 30 years and receiving various corresponding measures.
It urged Pyongyang to immediately cease its unjustifiable nuclear and missile developments, and return to the path of dialogue for denuclearization.
This file photo, captured from the homepage of North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 11, 2022, shows Kim Yo-jong, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's sister and vice department director of the ruling Workers' Party's Central Committee, making a speech during a national meeting on anti-epidemic measures held in Pyongyang the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
odissy@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Chang Dong-woo · July 18, 2023
9. Number of N. Korean defectors entering S. Korea nearly doubles on-quarter in Q2
A small bit of good news.
Number of N. Korean defectors entering S. Korea nearly doubles on-quarter in Q2 | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · July 18, 2023
SEOUL, July 18 (Yonhap) -- The number of North Korean defectors coming to South Korea reached 65 in the April-June period, nearly doubling from 34 three months earlier, government data showed Tuesday, in an apparent rise after China eased its strict COVID-19 restrictions.
After escaping the North, 18 men and 47 women reached South Korea in the second quarter, bringing the total number of the North's defectors to 33,981, according to data from Seoul's unification ministry.
The latest data showed the total number of North Korean defectors entering South Korea in the first half came in at 99, up nearly fivefold from 19 in the same period last year.
"This seems to result from how movement (restrictions) within China and abroad have eased," a ministry official told reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
While the number of defectors who entered the South from a third country was overwhelmingly higher, there were still "a certain" number of defectors who arrived here directly from the North, the official said.
In May, a group of North Koreans crossed the de facto inter-Korean sea border aboard a fishing boat. During interagency questioning, the defectors said they fled the North to escape Pyongyang's rigid COVID-19 restrictions.
The number of North Korean defectors coming to the South has sharply dwindled in recent years due largely to Pyongyang's tight border controls over the COVID-19 pandemic.
The figure, which hovered at over 3,000 before and after 2010, more than halved to 1,167 in 2019 and plummeted to 59 in 2022, according to government data.
This file photo shows Hana Clinic in Hanawon in Anseong, south of Seoul, on July 10, 2023, the 24th anniversary of the opening of the resettlement center for North Korean defectors. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)
mlee@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · July 18, 2023
10. U.S. nuclear-capable submarine making port call in Busan for first time in decades: Campbell
Dr. Campbell and the US delegation should have arrived in Pusan aboard the submarine then hosted the Korean delegation on it. (note: tongue in cheek)
Excerpts:
A joint press release on the meeting said the two sides agreed the NCG will play an integral role in discussing and advancing bilateral approaches and guidelines to nuclear and strategic planning and responses to North Korean aggression.
"To that end, both sides established a range of workstreams to bolster nuclear deterrence and response capabilities on the Korean Peninsula, including the development of security and information sharing protocols; nuclear consultation and communication processes in crises and contingencies; as well as coordination and development of relevant planning, operations, exercises, simulations, trainings, and investment activities," the statement said.
"In particular, the U.S. and ROK discussed joint planning and execution of ROK conventional support to U.S. nuclear operations as well as how to enhance visibility of U.S. strategic asset deployments around the Korean Peninsula," it said, using the acronym of South Korea's formal name, the Republic of Korea.
The release said both sides committed to promptly executing the workstreams and other efforts within the NCG and to report progress to their respective presidents in the coming months.
(LEAD) U.S. nuclear-capable submarine making port call in Busan for first time in decades: Campbell | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · July 18, 2023
(ATTN: CORRECTS to say nuclear-capable submarine; UPDATES with more remarks from press briefing, joint statement; ADDS photo)
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, July 18 (Yonhap) -- A U.S. nuclear-capable submarine is currently making a port call in Busan for the first time in decades to demonstrate the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to South Korea, a White House official said Tuesday.
U.S. National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell made the remark to reporters at the presidential office after co-chairing the inaugural session of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) agreed by President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden in April.
South Korea's Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo (L) speaks during a joint news conference on the outcomes of the inaugural session of the Nuclear Consultative Group between South Korea and the United States at the presidential office in Seoul on July 18, 2023. White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell (2nd from L) and U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Acquisition Cara Abercrombie were also on hand. (Yonhap)
"As we speak an American nuclear submarine is making port in Busan today. It's the first visit of an American nuclear submarine in decades," Campbell said.
The last time a U.S. ballistic missile submarine visited South Korea is known to have been in March 1981, when the USS Robert E. Lee made a port call.
The nuclear submarine headed to the southeastern city is the USS Kentucky, a U.S. Navy Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine, the defense ministry later said in a press release announcing its arrival.
The visit followed a U.S. pledge to send a nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine to South Korea in the Washington Declaration adopted by Yoon and Biden during their summit in Washington in April to further enhance the "regular visibility" of strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula.
A North Korean defense ministry spokesperson denounced the plan last week, warning it "may incite the worst crisis of nuclear conflict in practice."
The NCG was established under the Washington Declaration to discuss ways to strengthen the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to defending South Korea with all of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, amid calls in South Korea for its own nuclear armament to counter North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile threats.
The notion of South Korea's own nuclear armament has been rejected by the U.S.
The NCG's stated objective is to strengthen extended deterrence, discuss nuclear and strategic planning and manage the threat to the nonproliferation regime posed by North Korea, with the involvement of senior national security and defense officials from both sides.
The first session was led by Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo, Campbell and NSC Coordinator for Defense Policy and Arms Control Cara Abercrombie.
"The U.S. side showed resolve that in the event North Korea carries out a nuclear attack against the Republic of Korea, it will take swift, overwhelming and decisive response measures together and that this will lead to the end of the North Korean regime," Kim said during the same press briefing. "We made clear that we have full confidence in this U.S. extended deterrence commitment."
President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) and U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell shake hands during the inaugural session of the Nuclear Consultative Group at the presidential office in Seoul on July 18, 2023, in this photo provided by the office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
A joint press release on the meeting said the two sides agreed the NCG will play an integral role in discussing and advancing bilateral approaches and guidelines to nuclear and strategic planning and responses to North Korean aggression.
"To that end, both sides established a range of workstreams to bolster nuclear deterrence and response capabilities on the Korean Peninsula, including the development of security and information sharing protocols; nuclear consultation and communication processes in crises and contingencies; as well as coordination and development of relevant planning, operations, exercises, simulations, trainings, and investment activities," the statement said.
"In particular, the U.S. and ROK discussed joint planning and execution of ROK conventional support to U.S. nuclear operations as well as how to enhance visibility of U.S. strategic asset deployments around the Korean Peninsula," it said, using the acronym of South Korea's formal name, the Republic of Korea.
The release said both sides committed to promptly executing the workstreams and other efforts within the NCG and to report progress to their respective presidents in the coming months.
The group will be held quarterly at appropriate levels, with the next principal-level meeting set to be held in the U.S. later this year, it said.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · July 18, 2023
11. Yoon says N. Korea should be made to not dare use nuclear weapons
(LEAD) Yoon says N. Korea should be made to not dare use nuclear weapons | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · July 18, 2023
(ATTN: UPDATES with Yoon's remarks to NCG meeting, at Cabinet session; CHANGES headline)
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, July 18 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol called Tuesday for strengthening extended deterrence to the point that North Korea dares not use nuclear weapons, his office said.
Yoon made the remark as he stopped by the inaugural session of the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), which brought together senior national security and defense officials from both sides to discuss ways to strengthen the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to defending South Korea with all of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.
"The NCG must strengthen extended deterrence credibility to respond thoroughly to North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile threats," Yoon said, according to presidential spokesperson Lee Do-woon.
"Just as President Biden warned in April that North Korea will meet the end of its regime in the event it carries out a nuclear attack, we must strengthen extended deterrence credibility through a nuclear-based South Korea-U.S. alliance to ensure North Korea does not dare to use nuclear weapons," he added.
Yoon also asked the officials to quickly come up with concrete measures to deliver on the two leaders' commitment to strengthening extended deterrence, saying public interest in the NCG is high.
President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the presidential office in Seoul on July 18, 2023. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)
The NCG's objective is to strengthen extended deterrence, discuss nuclear and strategic planning, and manage the threat to the nonproliferation regime posed by North Korea.
The group was established during a summit between Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington in April and will meet every quarter and report the results to each president.
The first session is being led by Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo and U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell.
Yoon referred to the NCG session during a Cabinet meeting afterward, saying it will be an important starting point for building strong and effective South Korea-U.S. extended deterrence.
"It will carry out actual efforts to block North Korea's nuclear and missile threats at their source through a South Korea-U.S. alliance upgraded to a new nuclear-based paradigm," he said.
Both the NCG session and the Cabinet meeting were held at the presidential office.
Yoon began the Cabinet meeting by again offering his condolences to the people killed in recent downpours in the country, saying the government must mobilize all available resources to quickly carry out rescue and recovery efforts and provide assistance to victims.
He promised to designate special disaster zones as soon as possible to make the affected areas eligible for state support and called for fundamentally changing the nation's disaster control and response systems.
"We must get rid of the notion that nothing can be done because it is a natural disaster," Yoon said.
He stressed the need to establish a digital monitoring system and called for taking preemptive safety measures through the real-time sharing of data between ministries.
"We must completely abolish subsidies for cartels with benefits and corrupt cartels, and spend those financial resources on flood damage recovery and compensation," he added, referring to his ongoing campaign to crack down on groups with vested interests inside and outside the government.
"The people's precious taxes must be actively used to wipe away their tears from disasters."
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · July 18, 2023
12.NATO Can Help Create a Global Security Architecture
A bold proposal.
This should be in the broader national security issues category but I include it in the Korea section because it is written by an eminent Korea watcher, Duyeon Kim, and because Korea is an integral part of this idea.
Excerpts:
Finally, the United States could initiate a process to appoint an Indo-Pacific coordinator at NATO or a Pacific-Atlantic coordinator in Washington—perhaps someone who understands all three regions and deterrence. It would also be prudent to coordinate NATO-AP4 meetings with other minilateral groupings—such as the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security partnership and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—to prevent duplicating initiatives while working closely with the Indo-Pacific point persons in each capital.
North American, European, and Indo-Pacific allies and partners should practice readiness together and build habits of tri-regional cooperation sooner than later. But there certainly are road bumps for this vision of the way forward. Undoubtedly, budget, resources, and consensus would be among the top hurdles in devising and coordinating action plans or practicing joint drills. More fundamentally, the AP4 is not a formal grouping on its own, and NATO so far cooperates only bilaterally with those countries. The AP4 countries have not yet aligned on a common agenda as a group, and the Japan-South Korea relationship is bumpy. For these reasons, it would be understandable if some NATO members are still hesitant about the alliance formalizing initiatives with the AP4.
Despite all these challenges, practical first steps should still be taken. The stakes are too high to wait until after a conflict or crisis occurs in the Indo-Pacific.
An expert's point of view on a current event.
NATO Can Help Create a Global Security Architecture
Washington’s Asia-Pacific partners are a building block for a stronger order.
By Duyeon Kim, a Seoul-based adjunct senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security and a columnist with the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Foreign Policy · by Duyeon Kim · July 17, 2023
NATO’s annual summit last week in Vilnius, Lithuania, was significant beyond discussions about Russia, Ukraine’s membership, and NATO’s future. The leaders from NATO’s four Asia-Pacific partners (loosely called the “Asia-Pacific Four” or “AP4”)—South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand—also participated in their second consecutive NATO summit.
NATO’s annual summit last week in Vilnius, Lithuania, was significant beyond discussions about Russia, Ukraine’s membership, and NATO’s future. The leaders from NATO’s four Asia-Pacific partners (loosely called the “Asia-Pacific Four” or “AP4”)—South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand—also participated in their second consecutive NATO summit.
Their attendance followed last year’s meeting in Madrid, during which NATO adopted its new Strategic Concept (the first since 2010), including China for the first time. It called Beijing a “systemic challenge” to Euro-Atlantic security, in tandem with the Madrid declaration, which described China as a systemic competitor. This year’s Vilnius communique stated that NATO is taking steps to protect against China’s “coercive tactics” and called on Beijing to play a “constructive role” as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council in Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine—something that Beijing has shown little sign of doing so far.
The time is ripe for the NATO-AP4 partnership to become a critical linchpin for global security and stability. It is a critical link that connects three regions: North America, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific. Last year, there was enough political impetus to lay the foundation at the Madrid summit with a consensus that security is global and inseparable.
Capitalizing on the NATO-AP4 partnership could send a strong deterrence message to all three authoritarian regimes in possession of nuclear weapons—China, North Korea, and Russia. It can be a linchpin that not only brings the three regions together on shared challenges but knits together the United States’ patchwork of different regional security systems into a global security architecture of networked alliances and partnerships.
The NATO-AP4 partnership is an underappreciated entity whose history dates back to the early 1990s, first with Japan, after the fall of the Soviet Union. Until recently, NATO’s conception of “Asia” was primarily Central Asia as well as its cooperative missions in Afghanistan with both Central Asian and some Asia-Pacific countries after the 9/11 attacks. The four AP4 countries are officially “partners across the globe” of NATO and have begun to transition into the alliance’s new Individually Tailored Partnership Program. NATO is rightfully strengthening bilateral relations with individual countries in the Indo-Pacific. But it should also focus on multilateral cooperation with them.
The United States has long maintained a multilateral security system in Europe and a series of bilateral alliances (“hub and spokes”) in Asia that have largely been dealt with separately. But the evolving global security landscape in which a crisis in Europe affects the Indo-Pacific, and vice versa, requires a comprehensive and integrated approach. Russia’s war on Ukraine has resulted in inflation, food shortages, and disruptions in global supply chains while likely emboldening and providing tips for Beijing’s and Pyongyang’s own strategic calculations.
NATO for its part would be able to broaden its political-military network and contribute to Indo-Pacific security in practical ways, and its AP4 partners would become members of a global security community of like-minded countries that support one another across multiple domains. In these ways, NATO could also become the first forum in which hard security issues are discussed at a global level.
To be clear, NATO’s priority and top preoccupation will likely always be Russia and defending the North Atlantic region against all threats. It is unlikely to expand into a global alliance that commits to defending Asian countries militarily or get involved in a conflict militarily (unless perhaps North Korea or China struck the U.S. homeland). But with NATO’s recent recognition of the threat from Beijing and Pyongyang, there are opportunities for it to do far more than just dialoguing with Indo-Pacific countries for cultural education or putting forward rhetoric about a united front, important as those goals also are.
Since the 2022 Madrid summit, NATO and its AP4 partners have ramped up high-level political discussions and amplified rhetoric about solidarity to defend the rules-based international order. During his visit to Tokyo this January, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stressed: “What is happening in Europe today could happen in East Asia tomorrow. So we must remain united and firm.” He expressed interest in opening up NATO’s first liaison office in Asia in Tokyo (although France has expressed objection). The Vilnius communique reportedly omitted language about such plans in the final round of talks.
All of these movements and aspirations are headed in the right direction. But more can and should be done to translate talk into practical action that conforms to the framework of NATO’s priorities, outlined in its 2022 Strategic Concept, while staying true to the alliance’s statutes.
First, NATO should host regular Track 1 and Track 1.5 dialogues on deterrence and other key security topics to deepen all three regions’ respective situational awareness about one another’s immediate security threats, experiences, and deterrence targets as well as their understanding of different regional contexts. Deterrence should feature prominently on their agenda because it is one of NATO’s core tasks and each region faces adversaries whose incentives to use nuclear weapons could originate from non-nuclear domains, while advanced weapons risk blurring the line between nuclear and conventional capabilities.
Decision-making during a crisis has become more difficult, and the chances of miscalculation have increased, particularly amid great-power competition in a multipolar nuclear era. In the conventional military domain, questions continue to loom as to whether China might one day invade or blockade Taiwan.
East Asian countries could draw on relevant experiences from NATO, including deterrence measures, practices, and consultative mechanisms to strengthen U.S. extended deterrence in Asia—particularly the reassurance component of Washington’s defense commitment to its Asian allies. A common understanding of the security lexicon is also necessary because basic terms such as nuclear-sharing and arms control have been used in some Northeast Asian countries with varying definitions and different perceptions of them.
The three regions should devise and practice joint plans for crisis response and management that expand and deepen the existing political dialogues held between the North Atlantic Council and NATO’s AP4. A coordinated response among NATO, the AP4, and the European Union that is aligned with United States across multiple domains (military and nonmilitary) is important in dealing with threats from Beijing—or any potential crisis in Asia. Political, policy, and military officials should be involved in drawing up and implementing these plans.
At the very least, political and military officials from the three regions could conduct tabletop exercises together on scenarios—including a crisis in Taiwan, on the Korean Peninsula, or in the South China Sea—that result from a failure in deterrence. Practicing these scenarios is important to minimize disarray when a crisis happens and to prevent adversaries from driving wedges among the allies. Having a basic plan would also manage expectations and provide predictability and a supportive role for member states in NATO (and the EU) in crisis response scenarios.
For example, some NATO or EU member states, including Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, have recently been deploying naval and other military assets to the Indo-Pacific to symbolize solidarity in defending a rules-based international order. What happens if a crisis occurs while any one of them is there for a routine drill? What would these ships and aircraft do? Some European lawmakers recently told me that those military assets would “run back home.” That might be the politically and legally realistic reaction. But while NATO members would not engage militarily in a response outside the Euro-Atlantic region, the mission and message of solidarity would instantly crumble and hand adversaries an opportunity to divide them.
Therefore, like-minded allies and partners need to discuss at least a basic conception of their supporting roles, bearing in mind that there could be numerous possibilities for a crisis scenario. NATO could assist in economic and political ways or even provide military support in similar forms that some AP4 countries have to Ukraine. After all, the Indo-Pacific countries that have supported Ukraine expect Europe to do the same if a crisis happens in Asia.
U.S. allies and partners from all three regions could also deepen joint and combined military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region. These could be stand-alone drills or held on the sidelines of existing multinational military exercises, such as those hosted by Australia (Talisman Sabre). Such drills could be conducted using carefully imagined hypothetical scenarios and targets to minimize misperceptions by Beijing, Pyongyang, and Moscow, but the skills that are practiced would be transferrable to a real-life situation if and when warranted.
Finally, the United States could initiate a process to appoint an Indo-Pacific coordinator at NATO or a Pacific-Atlantic coordinator in Washington—perhaps someone who understands all three regions and deterrence. It would also be prudent to coordinate NATO-AP4 meetings with other minilateral groupings—such as the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security partnership and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—to prevent duplicating initiatives while working closely with the Indo-Pacific point persons in each capital.
North American, European, and Indo-Pacific allies and partners should practice readiness together and build habits of tri-regional cooperation sooner than later. But there certainly are road bumps for this vision of the way forward. Undoubtedly, budget, resources, and consensus would be among the top hurdles in devising and coordinating action plans or practicing joint drills. More fundamentally, the AP4 is not a formal grouping on its own, and NATO so far cooperates only bilaterally with those countries. The AP4 countries have not yet aligned on a common agenda as a group, and the Japan-South Korea relationship is bumpy. For these reasons, it would be understandable if some NATO members are still hesitant about the alliance formalizing initiatives with the AP4.
Despite all these challenges, practical first steps should still be taken. The stakes are too high to wait until after a conflict or crisis occurs in the Indo-Pacific.
Foreign Policy · by Duyeon Kim · July 17, 2023
13. U.S. national crosses military demarcation line into N. Korea: UN Command
It has been a long time since something like this has happened. I recall a couple of soldiers and (ROK KATUSA and US - PFC White?) crossing over in the 1980s while on patrols. But I cannot remember the last time someone crossed into the north at the JSA.
Fortunately we do not follow the north's standard operating procedure which is to go chasing after such a person with guns blazing like the north did in 1984 and 2017.
I am sure all JSA tours will be undergoing a high level of scrutiny and probably will be cancelled for awhile.
U.S. national crosses military demarcation line into N. Korea: UN Command | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · July 18, 2023
SEOUL, July 18 (Yonhap) -- A U.S. citizen has crossed the military demarcation line separating the two Koreas into North Korea without authorization, the U.S.-led U.N. Command (UNC) said Tuesday.
The person moved into the North during a tour to the Joint Security Area in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and is believed to be in North Korea's custody, according to the UNC.
The command did not elaborate on the person's gender or other details.
"We ... are working with our KPA counterparts to resolve this incident," the UNC said in a tweet referring to the North's Korean People's Army.
The UNC oversees activities in the DMZ.
This file photo, taken March 3, 2023, shows South Korean troops on guard duty at the inter-Korean truce village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas. (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · July 18, 2023
14. The North Korean Scenario That Should Keep You Up at Night
Excerpts:
Given North Korea’s recently announced nuclear doctrine of the preemptive use of nuclear weapons in response to an imminent – or perceived to be imminent – threat to the leadership or command and control, there should be concern that North Korea may intentionally or accidentally provoke conflict on the Korean Peninsula. A first-use preemptive nuclear policy requires exquisite intelligence to monitor and know your real or potential adversary.
North Korea’s recent failure to put a reconnaissance satellite in orbit is further proof that Pyongyang’s intelligence capabilities are not at a level to ensure that they do not misinterpret an event or communique and respond provocatively, precipitating a response that could escalate quickly.
It’s this scenario that should keep us awake at night. We’re talking about the potential use of nuclear weapons, whether strategic or tactical – they’re nuclear weapons with catastrophic consequences.
A key point:
I recently joined a Track 2 (former officials and academics) with China to discuss developments with North Korea. I suggested that China should use its unique leverage with North Korea to convince Kim Jong Un to return to negotiations and halt its nuclear and missile escalation. What I got was a resounding “no”. I was politely told that the tension in U.S. – China relations prevented China from helping with North Korea. I heard this before, but I thought that with the somewhat successful visit of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China, and talk about areas where China and the U.S. can cooperate, North Korea would be on the top, or close to the top of the list.
The North Korean Scenario That Should Keep You Up at Night
thecipherbrief.com
July 17th, 2023 by Joseph DeTrani, |
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani is former Special envoy for Six Party Talks with North Korea and the U.S. Representative to the Korea Energy Development Organization (KEDO), as well as former CIA director of East Asia Operations. He also served as the Associate Director of National Intelligence and Mission Manager for North Korea and the Director of the National Counter Proliferation Center, while also serving as a Special Adviser to the Director of National Intelligence. He currently serves on the Board of Managers at Sandia National Laboratories. The views expressed represent those of the author.
View all articles by Joseph DeTrani
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE/OPINION — It should be obvious that North Korea’s recent launches of three Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) is a message not only to the U.S. – but also to China and the region – that North Korea will continue with its ballistic missile launches and eventually with its seventh nuclear test, knowing there are no consequences, and seemingly convinced that a strong nuclear arsenal will ensure the survival of the Kim Jong Un regime and Kim dynasty.
Understandably, there is concern in Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington with North Korea’s July 12th successful launch of a solid fuel ICBM (Hwasong-18) with a range of 15,000 kilometers (9,320 miles), capable of targeting the entire U.S. This was the third successful ICBM launch in 2023, preceded by a solid fuel ICBM (Hwasong-18) launched in April and a liquid fuel road mobile ICBM (Hwasong -17) launched in March.
On July 10, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of Kim Jong Un and his likely successor, accused the U.S. of reconnaissance flights that entered North Korea’s Exclusive Economic Zone, threatening “shocking” consequences if the U.S. continues reconnaissance activities in the region. North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) previously had criticized the planned deployment of U.S. strategic assets to South Korea as “nuclear blackmail” against North Korea, and a grave threat to regional and global stability.
Given North Korea’s recently announced nuclear doctrine of the preemptive use of nuclear weapons in response to an imminent – or perceived to be imminent – threat to the leadership or command and control, there should be concern that North Korea may intentionally or accidentally provoke conflict on the Korean Peninsula. A first-use preemptive nuclear policy requires exquisite intelligence to monitor and know your real or potential adversary.
North Korea’s recent failure to put a reconnaissance satellite in orbit is further proof that Pyongyang’s intelligence capabilities are not at a level to ensure that they do not misinterpret an event or communique and respond provocatively, precipitating a response that could escalate quickly.
It’s this scenario that should keep us awake at night. We’re talking about the potential use of nuclear weapons, whether strategic or tactical – they’re nuclear weapons with catastrophic consequences.
In 2003, China, at the request of the U.S., got North Korea to attend the Six Party Talks hosted by China. Although disbanded in 2009, the Talks did result in a September 2005 Joint Statement that committed North Korea to complete and verifiable dismantlement of all its nuclear weapons and ongoing nuclear facilities, in return for security assurances, economic development assistance and a path to the normalization of relations with the U.S. China was able to get North Korea to join the Six Party Talks because China is North Korea’s only ally and a neighbor that provides North Korea with over 90% of its trade and crude oil and petroleum requirements. In short, North Korea is tethered to China politically and economically.
I recently joined a Track 2 (former officials and academics) with China to discuss developments with North Korea. I suggested that China should use its unique leverage with North Korea to convince Kim Jong Un to return to negotiations and halt its nuclear and missile escalation. What I got was a resounding “no”. I was politely told that the tension in U.S. – China relations prevented China from helping with North Korea. I heard this before, but I thought that with the somewhat successful visit of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China, and talk about areas where China and the U.S. can cooperate, North Korea would be on the top, or close to the top of the list.
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This is unfortunate, because it’s also in China’s interest to ensure that there’s peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. Indeed, convincing North Korea to denuclearize also is in China’s interest, if they don’t want a nuclear arms race in the region, with South Korea and Japan, despite U.S. extended nuclear deterrence commitments, acquiring their own nuclear weapons capabilities. Or if China is concerned, as is the U.S., that North Korea may provide nuclear weapons to a rogue state or terrorist organization. North Korea’s previous nuclear assistance to Syria at Al Kibar should be a wake-up call to all who are concerned about nuclear proliferation.
Failure to get North Korea to halt its missile and nuclear escalation eventually will lead to greater instability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. This is one issue that demands immediate attention. It’s an issue that China should help resolve.
This piece by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joe DeTrani was first published in The Washington Times
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
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15. Nuclear capable US submarine makes first port call in South Korea in four decades
Nuclear capable US submarine makes first port call in South Korea in four decades | CNN
CNN · by Brad Lendon,Yoonjung Seo,Gawon Bae · July 18, 2023
Seoul, South Korea CNN —
For the first time in decades, a nuclear capable US Navy ballistic missile submarine has made a port call in South Korea, in a move that comes just days after North Korea test-fired what it said was a solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile.
The presence of the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine in the South Korean port city of Busan was announced by the country’s Defense Ministry on Tuesday afternoon.
It came as Kurt Campbell, coordinator for the Indo-Pacific at the US National Security Council, was at the inaugural meeting in Seoul of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG).
The NCG is a joint US and South Korean panel set up by the countries’ leaders at a summit in Washington in April.
The arrival of the submarine follows a period of heightened tensions on the peninsula, during which North Korea has both tested what it said was an advanced long range missile and threatened to shoot down US military reconnaissance aircraft engaging in what it called “hostile espionage” activities near its territory.
Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and a senior official in her own right, said in a statement Monday the deployment of a US ballistic missile submarine to the peninsula would damage already fractured lines of communication between the two sides.
“The reality before the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) is not dialogue repeatedly touted by the US,” said Kim. Instead, she said, the NCG was “openly discussing the use of nukes against the DPRK and the entry of US strategic nuclear submarine into waters of the Korean Peninsula for the first time in 40-odd years.”
“The US should know that its bolstered extended deterrence system and excessively extended military alliance system, a threatening entity, will only make the DPRK go farther away from the negotiating table desired by it,” the statement added.
Sub can carry up 80 warheads
Known colloquially as “boomers,” each of the Ohio-class subs can carry a maximum of 20 Trident II ballistic missiles.
The Nuclear Threat Initiative at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies estimates that each Trident missile can carry four nuclear warheads, meaning each US ballistic missile submarine could be carrying about 80 nuclear warheads.
The port call came out of an agreement between US President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol when the met in the US capital in April. The “Washington Declaration” included a set of measures aimed at making Pyongyang think twice about launching an attack on its southern neighbor.
“Our mutual defense treaty is iron clad and that includes our commitment to extend a deterrence – and that includes the nuclear threat, the nuclear deterrent,” Biden said at the time.
The establishment of the NCG came out of that Biden-Yoon meeting.
In a joint statement on Tuesday the two allies said the NCG would enhance “combined deterrence and response posture.”
“As a result, the collective strength of our two nations will directly contribute to the continued peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and across the Indo-Pacific region,” the statement read.
“This inaugural NCG meeting afforded the United States an opportunity to reaffirm and strengthen the US commitment to provide extended deterrence to the ROK backed by the full range of US capabilities, including nuclear,” it added.
Little military value
Analysts said after the “Washington Declaration” that the presence of a US Navy ballistic missile submarine in a South Korean port would be purely symbolic – and in fact would reduce the military value of the sub.
“Tactically, (the US and South Korea) are diminishing the sub’s most powerful asset; its stealthiness,” Carl Schuster, former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii, said in April.
The Trident missiles have a range of 4,600 miles (7,400 kilometers), meaning they are capable of hitting a target in North Korea from vast swathes of the Pacific, Indian or Arctic oceans.
“Militarily, (these submarines) don’t need to be anywhere near Korea in order to reach potential targets there,” Blake Herzinger, a research fellow at the United States Studies Centre, said in April.
One of the keys to nuclear deterrence is uncertainty.
A US ballistic missile sub lurking hundreds of feet below the ocean’s surface thousands of miles from North Korea would still be within striking range of Pyongyang, but would be near impossible for North Korea to spot.
One arriving in South Korea on a port visit – which must be arranged 24 to 48 hours in advance – would be far more visible, giving North Korea an advantage, Schuster said.
“If Kim Jong Un was looking to do a surprise strike, we’ve given him the submarine’s location and time it will be there,” Schuster said.
CNN · by Brad Lendon,Yoonjung Seo,Gawon Bae · July 18, 2023
16. North Korea arrests US soldier who crossed the border from the demilitarized zone without authorization
What was this soldier thinking? Now I guess there will have to be psychological vetting of all members of the tour groups going to JSA.
North Korea arrests US soldier who crossed the border from the demilitarized zone without authorization
- The last recorded person involved in a border crossing was shot and killed
PUBLISHED: 06:37 EDT, 18 July 2023 | UPDATED: 07:26 EDT, 18 July 2023
Daily Mail · by Christian Oliver · July 18, 2023
An American soldier has crossed the heavily fortified border from South Korea into North Korea, United Nations Command overseeing the area said Tuesday, amid heightened tensions over North Korea's nuclear program.
The U.N. Command tweeted that the U.S. citizen was on a tour to the Korean border village of Panmunjom and crossed the border into the North without authorization. The demilitarized zone separates the two Koreas where soldiers from both sides stand guard.
It said he is currently in North Korean custody and that the U.N. Command is working with its North Korean counterparts to resolve the incident.
The Command gave no further details as to the identity of the soldier of as to why he crossed the border.
The last recorded individual to have crossed the border in 2020 was shot and killed on the spot, according to South Korean intelligence.
United Nations Command soldiers (right) and a South Korean soldier (left) stand guard before North Korea's Panmon Hall and the military demarcation line separating North and South Korea
The Korean Demilitarized Zone sits either side of the border, stretching 2km each way
'A U.S. National on a JSA orientation tour crossed, without authorization, the Military Demarcation Line into the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK),' the U.N. Command said on Twitter.
'We believe he is currently in DPRK custody and are working with our KPA counterparts to resolve this incident,' it added, referring to North Korea's People's Army.
The Military Demarcation Line marks the border between North and South Korea and has been in place since the Armistice signed in July 1953.
The Korean Demilitarized Zone sits either side of the border, stretching 2km each way.
This is the last recorded border incident involving an individual since September 2020 when a South Korean official of the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries disappeared from his patrol boat that was six miles north of the Northern Limit Line - a disputed maritime demarcation line in the Yellow Sea between the North and South.
Lee Dae-jun was found wearing a life jacket by the North's own patrol where he was shot and killed by Pyongyang troops and his body burned over fear of coronavirus, South Korean intelligence said.
South Korea’s Ministry of Defense called the killing an 'atrocious' act and called on the North to punish those involved.
North Korea's Kim Jong-un subsequently issued a rare personal apology following the incident. The despot told South Korea's then-President Moon Jae-in that the 'disgraceful affair' should have never happened.
It came as the US earlier today deployed a nuclear-armed submarine to South Korea for the first time in four decades.
It comes as the allies warned North Korea that any use of the North's nuclear weapons in combat would result in the end of its regime.
A submarine-launched ballistic missile is seen during a test in this undated photo released on October 19, 2021 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency
The USS Michigan, a nuclear-powered guided missile submarine, departs from a naval base in the southeastern port city of Busan, South Korea, June 22, 2023
Periodic visits by US nuclear ballistic missile-capable submarines to South Korea were one of several agreements reached by the two countries' presidents in April in response to North Korea's expanding nuclear threat.
They also agreed to establish a bilateral Nuclear Consultative Group and expand military exercises.
The USS Kentucky, an Ohio-class submarine, arrived at the South Korean port of Busan on Tuesday afternoon, South Korea's defence ministry said.
It is the first visit by a US nuclear-armed submarine to South Korea since the 1980s, it said.
Daily Mail · by Christian Oliver · July 18, 2023
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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