Hawaii hotel performance down for the third month in a row -- international carriers pulling back

Arrivals and Spending – Month of November

Arrivals for the state were up 5%, with Oahu up 3%, Maui up 21% (compared to post wildfire data) Kauai and Hawaii Island were both down 2%. Expenditures up 2% with Oahu, Kauai and Hawaii Island all down 2%.

Arrivals and Spending – Year-to-Date

Arrivals YTD were flat for the state, up 3% on Oahu, but down 4% on Kauai and 3% on Hawaii Island and 8% on Maui. Expenditures were down 1% overall with Oahu and Kauai up 3%, Hawaii Island up 6% and Maui down 14%.

Air Seats – November

November air seats to Honolulu were flat, while Lihue was up 14% and Kona was down 8%. International seats were down 2% as all east bound markets saw decreases except for Japan which increased by 3%.

Air Seats – Outlook

Looking at the next three months, the state should have 3% more seats than a year ago with Honolulu up 3%, Lihue up 5% and Kona up 1%. For perspective, Maui is running 20% below 2019. International seats are forecast to be down 8% as carriers from Asia are cutting service especially in January and February. International seats forecast for February are down13% from last year with Japan down 16%, Canada down 13%, Seoul down 21% and Oceania down 12%.

Hotel Performance – Month of November

Total revenue was down 8% for the month of November with all islands seeing declines from last November. Overall, the decline in revenue was evenly split between rate and occupancy. Maui county led the way with a 13% drop with the Lahaina/Ka’anapali/Kapalua market down 29%. Kauai did the best with a 4% drop, while Hawaii Island was down 7% and Oahu was down 6%.

Hotel Performance – Year-to-Date

For the year-to-date 2024, RevPAR was down 5% driven mostly by rate declines. Oahu is still up 3% for the year despite the poor performance the last three months. Hawaii Island was down 3% and the island of Kauai is down 1%. The neighbor islands all have lower occupancy than in 2023. Maui is still suffering with room revenue down year to date by 18% compared with 2022 (before the wildfires).

Investment Market Happenings

The press reported that Blackstone is considering selling the Grand Wailea. We will be attending the ALIS conference in Los Angeles from January 28 - 30. We anticipate more hotels coming to market durning this conference than in the last five years.