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Today, overall, showed a strong close for the grain markets. Since the opening of the markets on Monday, May corn has increased less than a cent, May soybeans have increased 20 1/4 cents, and May wheat is down 6 1/4 cents. Soybeans failed to close above the $12.00 mark, despite hitting that level during today's trade. In general, corn and soybeans look to have started reversing back to a positive trend. Wheat is struggling to follow suit. (see charts below)
The NOPA report today showed crush at 186.2 million bushels, up from 185.8 mbu last month and 165.4 mbu last year, easily a Feb crush record (above 166.3 mbu in Feb 2020), and above even the most optimistic trade estimate. Cumulative Sept-Feb crush is up to 1112 mbu, 68 mbu ahead of last year's pace (+6.5%), with the USDA only looking for a 4% YoY increase in total bean crush in '23/24. Soybean oil stocks are at 1690 million pounds, up from 1507 mln lbs last month but below 1809 mln last February; it was around 100 mln above the average trade guess. Implied domestic use in Feb of 2027 mln is down from Jan but still a Feb record figure. Soybean meal production is at 4.383 million short tons, down from 4.389 mln ST last month but well above 3.929 mln ST a year ago. Meal yield of 47.08 lbs is down from last month and last year, as well as below the five-year average for February.
This morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 125,000 tonnes of U.S. corn for delivery to unknown destinations in 2023/24.
The U.S. ag attaché in Argentina lowered its forecast for the country’s soybean crop to 49.5 MMT, down 500,000 MT from USDA’s official forecast, as “a hot and dry spell hit the region in January and early February stressing the crop in a crucial growth stage.”
Funds were thought to have been mixed today with corn and beans buyers and wheat a seller. Corn was expected to have bought 2,000 contracts (short 254,300), soybeans to have bought (short 144,000), and wheat to have sold 3,000 contracts (short 88,000). On Tuesday, funds were longer than expected for corn by 23,000 contracts (short 253,000), soybeans were on par with expectations at 147,000 short, and wheat was shorter than expected by 15,000 contracts (short 74,000).
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