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Note: I will be in Korea for the next week so my daily news analysis timing will change. I will be participating in the international One Korea Forum (hosted by, among others, The Global Peace Foundation) with this year's event focused on "Free and Unified Korea: A Catalyst for Regional and Global Peace and Development." And then we will celebrate Korean Liberation Day on August 15th.
Quotes of the Day:
"Resistance, which is the function of conservatism, is essential to orderly advance."
- Agnes Repplier
“Be wary of strong drink, it can make you shoot at the tax collector...and miss.”
- Robert A. Heinlein, Time Enough for Love
"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right."
- H.L. Menchen
1. Will We See North Korean Forces in Eastern Ukraine?
2. Recovery gets under way after record rainfall
3. 3. Yoon to meet with Bill Gates next week
4. Defense chief calls for firm readiness against possible N.K. provocations during allied drills
5. A sad reality of Pelosi’s visit: South Korea won’t help defend Taiwan
6. Seoul Asks Beijing to Help with Security on Korean Peninsula
7. N. Korea sends letter to China slamming Pelosi's Taiwan trip
8. China says S. Korea has vowed to limit THAAD operation, heralding continued diplomatic row
9. Experts "China's demand for 'Three Dollars of THAAD' interferes with internal affairs... South Korea must protect its security sovereignty"
10. "Hybrid multilateralism" and the Yoon pursuit of middle power strategy
11. Japan could send a message to North Korea, China by amending its constitution
12. U.S. has returned 31% of Yongsan base
13. [INTERVIEW] Polish arms deal may well lead to greater opportunities for Korea: expert
14. Seoul reiterates that '3 Nos' policy is not commitment to China
1. Will We See North Korean Forces in Eastern Ukraine?
Note the author's bio.
Note the emphasis on north Korean artillery.
For those who do not think this is possible and for those who say north Korea does not send its military overseas, I recommend reading almost any of Dr. Bruce Bechtol's books on north Korea and proliferation - they not only proliferate weapons but also "proliferate" military advice and training. Also I recommend Benjamin R. Young's book, "Guns, Guerrillas, and the Great Leader: North korea and the Third World" for a look at how north Korea has provided military assistance throughout the third world, I am sure Russian occupied territory of Ukraine is in the condition of the third world.
Excerpts:
Economic ties with Donetsk and Luhansk may also provide a range of important opportunities. Since the breakaway regions are not U.N. member states, neither will be obliged to follow U.N. Security Council resolutions sanctioning North Korea – leaving them among the only territories in the world with which the East Asian state would be able to trade freely. Provision of a wide range of North Korean goods and services, ranging from expatriate workers to artillery systems, would not be prohibited as it would to U.N. member states such as Russia.
North Korea’s special forces, army, and possibly some parts of its artillery forces are notably larger than those of Russia, and its much greater emphases on several specific areas of ground warfare have since the Cold War led it to eclipse the Russian military in a number of key capabilities. A notable example, first highlighted on July 23, are its rocket artillery systems namely the KN-09 and KN-25 which both have longer ranges than any foreign rival outside China. They boast several times the range of either their Russian counterparts or the U.S. HIMARS, which have caused significant issues for Russian forces since being recently supplied to Ukraine.
Speaking on Channel One Russia, host Igor Korotchenko was among those to indicate that North Korean artillery systems in particular could be of value in Ukraine and may be deployed to the front, stating: “If North Korean volunteers with their artillery systems, wealth of experience with counter battery warfare and large caliber multiple launch rocket systems, made in North Korea, want to participate in the conflict, well, let’s give the green light to their volunteer impulse… If North Korea expresses a desire to meet its international duty to fight against Ukrainian fascism, we should let them.”
Conclusion:
North Korean and U.S. forces have fought on opposite sides of multiple conflicts in the past, most recently in Syria. Ukraine is potentially the latest of many wars, and one of the largest in terms of North Korean contributions, where the two have faced off as part of their ongoing 70-year conflict.
Will We See North Korean Forces in Eastern Ukraine?
How a military commitment by Pyongyang could materialize.
thediplomat.com · by A.B. Abrams · August 10, 2022
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Reports from a range of Russian sources and from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine have indicated that North Korea may deploy its armed forces for operations in the Ukrainian theater. Pyongyang recognized and formed diplomatic ties with the two breakaway republics on July 13, and it was reported just days later that North Korean workers would be dispatched to support reconstruction efforts in eastern Ukraine. The East Asian state would also potentially support and participate in war crimes tribunals in Donetsk.
Reports of plans to dispatch military personnel to Donetsk and Luhansk then emerged from the media outlets of the republics, before being more widely publicized on the Channel One Russia state TV channel.
Although yet to be confirmed, the possibility of North Korean forces being deployed in some capacity to Ukraine – albeit likely not as many as the 100,000 personnel that reports from the Donbas have claimed – remains significant based on prior trends in Pyongyang’s overseas force deployments and the benefits it, the contested republics, and Moscow itself could gain.
For North Korea, contributing forces to the Ukrainian war effort would be far from unprecedented, with the country’s armed forces having fought in Vietnam against the United States and in multiple Middle Eastern wars primarily against various U.S.-backed parties. North Korea has lent assistance to U.S. adversaries without frontline personnel contributions in multiple further conflicts, ranging from the South African Border War to the Iran-Iraq War. In the latter, Pyongyang provided the Iranian Army with the longest-ranged artillery in the region as well as the bulk of its ballistic missile arsenal. Should Pyongyang believe its forces can significantly influence the war’s course in Ukraine, it could go a long way toward keeping Western attentions focused on Eastern Europe, and thus away from East Asia, while further placing pressure on the United States, with which it remains officially at war.
Participation would also provide valuable experience combatting Ukrainian forces, which have received tens of billions of dollars’ worth of equipment from NATO and are operating with American intelligence, advisors, and training. Any North Korean deployment would likely be financed by Russia, potentially facilitating better access to Russian commodities, military hardware, and other economic support. Greater experience operating alongside Russian forces could also be highly prized due to the shared borders and common adversaries both face in East Asia.
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Unlike China and Iran, which have taken officially neutral positions in the Russia-Ukraine War, undermining claims that either could provide drones or other equipment to the Russian military, North Korea has strongly sided with Moscow. Alongside Eritrea, Belarus, and Syria, North Korea was one of four foreign countries to vote against condemning Russia’s military intervention at the United Nations. The country may thus be the only source of foreign arms available to Russia other than Belarus, as other than China and Iran North Korea is one of the few countries outside the Western sphere of influence with a sizable defense sector capable of providing significant benefits to Russian forces.
While Beijing and Tehran are both currently pressing to improve ties with the Western world, North Korea has seen a much harder line taken against it for decades by Western countries, and Pyongyang is so heavily sanctioned that there is far less to lose from supporting the Russian war effort and strengthening ties with Moscow and the Donbas. The possibility that this could help pave the way for greater economic integration with Russia, thus undermining Western efforts to isolate both economies, also remains significant.
Economic ties with Donetsk and Luhansk may also provide a range of important opportunities. Since the breakaway regions are not U.N. member states, neither will be obliged to follow U.N. Security Council resolutions sanctioning North Korea – leaving them among the only territories in the world with which the East Asian state would be able to trade freely. Provision of a wide range of North Korean goods and services, ranging from expatriate workers to artillery systems, would not be prohibited as it would to U.N. member states such as Russia.
North Korea’s special forces, army, and possibly some parts of its artillery forces are notably larger than those of Russia, and its much greater emphases on several specific areas of ground warfare have since the Cold War led it to eclipse the Russian military in a number of key capabilities. A notable example, first highlighted on July 23, are its rocket artillery systems namely the KN-09 and KN-25 which both have longer ranges than any foreign rival outside China. They boast several times the range of either their Russian counterparts or the U.S. HIMARS, which have caused significant issues for Russian forces since being recently supplied to Ukraine.
Speaking on Channel One Russia, host Igor Korotchenko was among those to indicate that North Korean artillery systems in particular could be of value in Ukraine and may be deployed to the front, stating: “If North Korean volunteers with their artillery systems, wealth of experience with counter battery warfare and large caliber multiple launch rocket systems, made in North Korea, want to participate in the conflict, well, let’s give the green light to their volunteer impulse… If North Korea expresses a desire to meet its international duty to fight against Ukrainian fascism, we should let them.”
North Korean artillery officers have already operated alongside the Syrian Army in the Lebanon War and in counterinsurgency operations in the 2010s, and could be among the first personnel deployed to eastern Ukraine. Their impact would be particularly significant if deploying alongside indigenous artillery systems, which could reach the Donbas through Russian territory.
Aside from artillery units, North Korean special forces units could potentially play a key role in Ukraine following their reported deployment for counterinsurgency operations in Syria. North Korea field the largest special forces in the world with estimates ranging from 180,000–200,000. They have been described in British assessments as “highly motivated, politically well indoctrinated and well trained…. units are expected to seek the initiative continuously, to turn all unforeseen events to their advantage, and advance all to achieve their objectives regardless of cost.” Two North Korean special forces units deployed to Syria in the 2010s were described by leaders of the insurgency they were targeting as “fatally dangerous” on the battlefield. Trained to operate behind enemy lines against adversaries far better equipped and trained than the Ukrainian Army, their deployment could have a significant impact on the battlefield depending on how effectively they can be integrated with Russian and Donbas units.
References to North Korean personnel set to join the front as “volunteers” indicates that deployments may not be made officially under the Korean People’s Army – the country’s armed forces – potentially mirroring China’s prior intervention in the Korean War, when Beijing dispatched forces under the People’s Volunteers rather than the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. This could similarly be intended to avoid placing North Korea officially at war with Ukraine and its foreign backers.
Personnel deployments will nevertheless pit North Korean forces directly against those of the U.S. and other Western powers, with the New York Times having referred to the U.S. as setting up “a stealthy network of commandos and spies rushing to provide weapons, intelligence and training” within Ukraine’s borders. “C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, [Kyiv], directing much of the massive amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces,” the Times continued.
“Commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine… training and advising Ukrainian troops and providing an on-the-ground conduit for weapons and other aid,” it added, stressing the sheer “scale of the secretive effort to assist Ukraine that is underway.”
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The extent of the presence and operations of Western forces in Ukraine was more recently highlighted in a report by the French magazine Causeur, citing intelligence sources from the country, while Russian government sources have consistently alleged an even deeper level of Western involvement in frontline operations. The result could well be direct clashes between North Korean and Western personnel, with the former officially operating as volunteers and the latter as part of a “stealthy network” in supporting roles or as military contractors.
North Korean and U.S. forces have fought on opposite sides of multiple conflicts in the past, most recently in Syria. Ukraine is potentially the latest of many wars, and one of the largest in terms of North Korean contributions, where the two have faced off as part of their ongoing 70-year conflict.
A.B. Abrams is the author of “Immovable Object: North Korea’s 70 Years at War with American Power” and “Power and Primacy: A History of Western Intervention in the Asia-Pacific.” Having completed related Master’s degrees at the University of London, he has published widely on international politics and defense. Abrams is proficient in multiple East Asian languages and studied Korean at university in Pyongyang.
thediplomat.com · by A.B. Abrams · August 10, 2022
2. Recovery gets under way after record rainfall
This was a historic rain with more tragedy than usual.
But few people are as resilient as Koreans. I would guess when I arrive tomorrow night (that damn international dateline makes it two days of travel) that the effects will barely be noticeable.
(LEAD) Recovery gets under way after record rainfall | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · August 10, 2022
(ATTN: CHANGES headline, lead, photos: UPDATES with more info throughout)
By Kim Han-joo
SEOUL, Aug. 10 (Yonhap) -- Recovery and cleanup work got under way in Seoul and elsewhere in the central and eastern regions Wednesday after this week's record rainfall that left at least 16 people dead or missing and more than 2,500 homes and buildings flooded.
A total of 525 millimeters of rain fell in Seoul from Monday to Wednesday morning, while Yangpyeong, 45 kilometers east of Seoul, recorded an accumulated 526.2 mm of rain during the period, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).
Nine people were killed -- five in Seoul, three in Gyeonggi Province and one in Gangwon Province -- while seven others went missing, four of them from Seoul and the three others from Gyeonggi Province, and 17 were injured, according to government data.
A total of 2,676 houses and buildings were inundated, most of them in Seoul.
About 570 people from 398 households, mostly from the wider Seoul area, have been displaced, which left them staying at local schools and gyms. A further 1,253 people from 724 households across the country have temporarily evacuated, officials said.
The government mobilized workers and soldiers to restore buildings, roads and other facilities in the wider Seoul area that had been prioritized as part of emergency recovery measures.
The three-day downpours also left many public facilities out of service, with six cases of flooded railroads reported in the wider Seoul area, and caused temporary suspension of services in sections of some railway and subway lines.
Much of the disrupted public services were back on track as of early Wednesday, including the operation of the Seoul Subway Line.
Restriction of the entire Seoul section of the Dongbu Expressway that runs through the eastern area of the capital city was lifted as of 7 a.m.
Authorities also had lifted restrictions on sections of some highways in Seoul as of Wednesday morning, including the Olympic and Gangbyeon Northern highways that directly run through the city.
The KMA said it has lifted the downpour warning in the wider Seoul area and Incheon, 27 kilometers west of Seoul, as of early Wednesday. The agency, however, maintained a heavy rain warning for Chungcheong Province in the central region, where precipitation may reach between 50 and 80 mm per hour.
khj@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · August 10, 2022
3. Yoon to meet with Bill Gates next week
Gates more powerful and influential than the Speaker?
Yoon to meet with Bill Gates next week | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · August 10, 2022
SEOUL, Aug. 10 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk-yeol plans to meet with Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates next week, the presidential office said Wednesday.
Gates will visit South Korea from next Monday for three days, and the planned meeting between Yoon and Gates will take place Tuesday afternoon, Yoon's office said.
Gates will visit the National Assembly to meet with Speaker Kim Jin-pyo and address the parliamentary budget committee about global health cooperation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Gates, who co-chairs the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, is expected to touch on the importance of international cooperation and how South Korea can play a role in this process.
In June, Yoon spoke by phone with Gates and discussed their responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
kdh@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · August 10, 2022
4. Defense chief calls for firm readiness against possible N.K. provocations during allied drills
It would be a good bet there will be a provocation or two. On the other hand, they have surprised us before with not conducting a provocation when we speculated they would.
The Defense Minister is right to call out the north. By discussing the possibility/probability of a provocation we can inoculate the public to not be affected by it.
This must be a critical part of our superior political warfare strategy: recognize the regime's strategy, understand it, expose it, and attack it (with information and influence).
Defense chief calls for firm readiness against possible N.K. provocations during allied drills | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · August 10, 2022
SEOUL, Aug. 10 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup called on top military commanders Wednesday to ensure strong readiness against possibilities of North Korea launching provocations around the time of the upcoming combined exercise with the United States.
Lee made the call during the top brass' meeting, where participants discussed antivirus measures and other preparations for the allies' Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise slated for Aug. 22-Sept. 1, according to his ministry.
"Noting that on the occasion of the UFS, there are possibilities of North Korea undertaking provocations, the minister instructed commanders to make substantive preparations and establish strict discipline to reinforce a military readiness posture and ensure the UFS can proceed successfully," the ministry said in a press release.
Preparations for the UFS come as Seoul and Washington are stepping up security coordination amid concerns that Pyongyang could dial up tensions by conducting what would be its seventh nuclear test or other provocative acts.
Participants at the meeting shared the view that possibilities remain of the North carrying out "strategic or tactical" provocations, as the reclusive regime has lashed out at the South's military buildup programs and the UFS.
"They concurred on the view that the military should maintain a firm readiness posture, put its core assets on standby and establish operational discipline," the ministry said.
At the meeting, participants also discussed plans to introduce stronger antivirus measures, including requiring all Korean participants in the UFS and new recruits to present negative tests.
The "high-intensity" measures to stop infections during the UFS include requiring service members to take polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests before joining the UFS, and to take rapid tests two or three times a week during the duration of the exercise.
Other steps include resuming a scheme to require all draftees to show PCR negative tests before joining the military, and strengthening monitoring programs for troops who have returned from off-base trips.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · August 10, 2022
5. A sad reality of Pelosi’s visit: South Korea won’t help defend Taiwan
I have to throw the flag on this one and disagree with the speculation of my good friend Don Kirk.
I think he is jumping to conclusions that are not justified, troubling, unhelpful, and dangerous. The lack of a face to face visit does not mean the ROK is not going to support US and other allied efforts to defend Taiwan.
That said, if there is a conflict in Taiwan the number one priority for the ROK/US alliance in Korea must be to deter a north Korean attack and if the north attacks to successfully defend the SOuth, defeat the nKPA, and resolve the Korea question. The priority for the alliance ON THE PENINSULA must be on the very real and dangerous and existential threat posed by north Korea.
Cursory reading of recent statements and documents and even the 1953 MDT provides indication that the ROK will live up to its treaty obligations and recognizes the importance of Taiwan security to both countries.
We are making way too much out of the non face to face visit.
In addition the ROK is standing up to China on the Three Ns which I would argue is more important than any face to face meeting between the President and the Speaker.
53d SCM(December 2021):
16. In consideration of complex regional and global security situation, the Minister and the Secretary pledged to continue promoting defense and security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region and the world where mutual interests align, in order to better respond to regional and global security challenges. In this context, the two leaders committed to seeking cooperation between ROK’s New Southern Policy and the U.S. vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
The two leaders reaffirmed the importance of the rules-based international order and adherence to international rules and norms, including those of freedom of navigation and overflight. They further expressed their intent to work together for that purpose. Additionally, the Minister and the Secretary acknowledged the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, as reflected in the May 2021 Joint Statement between President Biden and President Moon. They also reaffirmed support for Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) centrality and the ASEAN-led regional architecture.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2858814/53rd-security-consultative-meeting-joint-communique/
Joint Statement of Biden and Yoon, May 2022
President Yoon and President Biden reaffirm their commitment to maintain peace and stability, lawful unimpeded commerce, and respect for international law including freedom of navigation and overflight and other lawful use of the seas, including in the South China Sea and beyond. The two Presidents reiterate the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait as an essential element in security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. Sharing our mutual concerns regarding human rights situations in the Indo-Pacific region, both leaders commit to promote human rights and rule of law globally. The two Presidents resolutely condemn the coup in Myanmar and the military’s brutal attacks on civilians, and commit to press for the immediate cessation of violence, the release of those who are detained, unfettered countrywide humanitarian access, and a swift return to democracy. The two Presidents call on all nations to join us in providing safe haven to Burmese nationals and in prohibiting arms sales to Myanmar.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/21/united-states-republic-of-korea-leaders-joint-statement/
Thej 19353 Mutual Defense Treaty
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of either of them, the political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack. Separately and jointly, by self help and mutual aid, the Parties will maintain and develop appropriate means to deter armed attack and will take suitable measures in consultation and agreement to implement this Treaty and to further its purposes.
Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties in territories now under their respective administrative control, or hereafter recognized by one of the Parties as lawfully brought under the administrative control of the other, would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional processes.
The Republic of Korea grants, and the United States of America accepts, the right to dispose United States land, air and sea forces in and about the territory of the Republic of Korea as determined by mutual agreement.
https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/kor001.asp
A sad reality of Pelosi’s visit: South Korea won’t help defend Taiwan
The Hill · by Rachel Scully · August 9, 2022
The visit to Asia by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) exposed one reality that many people did not realize: The United States cannot count on its ally, the Republic of Korea, for support if war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits.
The United States, as Pelosi’s visit demonstrated conclusively, could not base forces in South Korea for action anywhere in the region for any purpose other than the defense of South Korea. U.S. forces would have to rely on their bases in Japan and Guam from which to defend Taiwan against invasion by China from the mainland.
That shocking fact became evident when Pelosi visited South Korea after her big day in Taiwan. No South Korean delegation was on hand to greet her at the airport, as might have been expected, and President Yoon Suk-yeol managed to be on vacation during her visit, though he did find time to chat with her for 40 minutes on the phone before she and her entourage, including five other members of Congress, went to the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas.
Perhaps Yoon may have been smart not to see her, considering that his foes in the Minjoo, or Democratic Party, still dominate the National Assembly and oppose much of what he’s doing to repair U.S.-Korea relations, which were severely compromised during the presidency of his progressive predecessor, Moon Jae-in. Pelosi, after all, is a leader of the Democratic Party in the U.S. — not quite the equivalent of Korea’s Democratic Party but definitely not conservative. Thus it may have been a good idea for Korea, on an official level, to have treated her visit coolly.
In that spirit, Pelosi was told in advance not to say a word about Taiwan or the dangerous military exercises that China’s President Xi Jinping ordered in retaliation for her refusal to bow to warnings not to visit the independent island state. That’s regrettable, since she and Yoon could have talked about what Taiwan needs to stand up to China.
Tiny Taiwan, population 23.5 million, will have to acquire more and better arms for defense against China, population 1.4 billion, and the United States will have to strengthen its commitment to defend Taiwan. Also, Taiwan will have to unify its own people more effectively, weeding out pro-China elements who would betray the island’s independence.
All that should be clear from the nature of the exercises in which China showed off its rising military might perilously close to Taiwan’s shores. Theoretically, it should be possible for South Korea, a major manufacturer and exporter of arms, to deluge Taiwan with weapons ranging from rifles to tanks — though South Korea’s concerns about China would seem to rule out such business with Taiwan.
The differences between the United States and South Korea on Taiwan and China are disturbing when you consider the importance of U.S. bases in Korea. Camp Humphreys, 40 miles south of Seoul, is America’s biggest overseas base, the home of most of the 28,500 U.S. troops in Korea. Nearby Osan Air Base is home of the Seventh U.S. Air Force, next in importance to the U.S. base at Kadena, home of the Fifth U.S. Air Force on Okinawa, the southernmost Japanese prefecture.
American commanders over the years have told me that U.S. forces in Korea could be deployed elsewhere as needed, but Pelosi’s visit shows that’s not the case. South Korea wants nothing to do with the defense of Taiwan against China, even though Korea and Taiwan have much in common. They are both industrious capitalist states, and they both, after much turmoil, are functioning democracies with elections for president and legislatures — in Korea the National Assembly and in Taiwan the yuan, or parliament.
For that reason alone, it’s regrettable that Korea cannot be counted on to rush to Taiwan’s defense in a showdown. As Pelosi’s visit made clear, however, South Korea’s leadership is too scared of antagonizing China, its biggest trading partner, to want to join in defending Taiwan against bullying by the mainland. Korea’s biggest concern is that war on Taiwan would spread to the Korean peninsula, where China would fight for North Korea, as it did in the Korean War.
The sudden realization that Korea’s alliance with the U.S. does not extend beyond Korea’s borders contrasts with Japan’s obvious willingness to stand up against China over Taiwan. Japanese complexes and concerns are entirely different from those of South Korea.
The Japanese ruled Taiwan after defeating China in the Sino-Japanese War in 1895, and they left behind quite different memories in Taiwan than they did while ruling Korea for 35 years until the end of World War II. Taiwanese do not view the Japanese era with the same bitterness as do Koreans, who were not only treated more severely and deprived of basic rights but also forced to serve as de facto slaves of Japanese companies and, in the case of Korean females, exploited as “comfort women” for Japanese soldiers.
Japanese also have another concern not shared by Koreans. That is, five Chinese missiles fell within Japan’s exclusive economic zone, which extends 200 kilometers beyond the southernmost small Japanese island. Japanese also tenaciously hold on to the uninhabited Senkaku Islands against constant Chinese demands and harassment by “fishing boats” and intimidation flights by Chinese fighter planes. The Senkakus, which the Chinese call Diaoyu, are much closer to Taiwan than they are to Okinawa even though they’re technically part of Okinawa prefecture.
The real danger, though, is that differences over Taiwan could drive the Japanese and Koreans even further apart than they are already. Japan’s conservative leaders could use war over Taiwan as the perfect excuse for revising, if not dropping, Article 9 of the “peace constitution” adopted during the American military occupation in 1947 that bans Japanese forces from engaging in any war overseas.
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While the Americans and Japanese might fight in a regional conflagration over Taiwan, the Koreans, by refusing to join on their side, could undermine the Asian defense network. That’s an upsetting lesson from Pelosi’s visit to the region. She may have enforced the right of Americans to visit Taiwan, whatever China’s rulers may think, and the Chinese certainly showed capacity for intimidating and bullying Taiwan, but the diplomats, politicians and media missed the significance of the visit as a test of Korea’s position.
Korean officials say Korea’s overwhelming concern must be its “national interest.” No one would dispute that assertion. Pelosi’s visit showed that Korea’s interests in China and Taiwan do not align with those of the United States and Japan.
Donald Kirk has been a journalist for more than 60 years, focusing much of his career on conflict in Asia and the Middle East, including as a correspondent for the Washington Star and Chicago Tribune. He currently is a freelance correspondent covering North and South Korea. He is the author of several books about Asian affairs.
The Hill · by Rachel Scully · August 9, 2022
6. Seoul Asks Beijing to Help with Security on Korean Peninsula
A normal request. But we all must know that China will not help the ROK (or the US) solvie security issues. China benefits from the strategic dilemma created by north Korea nd KJU's actions.
Seoul Asks Beijing to Help with Security on Korean Peninsula
english.chosun.com
August 10, 2022 12:20
Foreign Minister Park Jin met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Qingdao on Tuesday and asked him to help maintain peace and security on Korean Peninsula.
Park is the first minister in the Yoon Suk-yeol government to visit China. The two apparently discussed a wide range of issues, including the U.S.' Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery stationed in South Korea, Seoul's participation in a U.S.-led semiconductor alliance and cross-straits tensions heightened by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's recent visit to Taiwan.
"We must adhere to a win-win strategy and protect stable supply chains," Wang said, voicing displeasure at the U.S.' Chip 4 alliance and other polices to reduce dependence on China.
Park said, "Peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula faces unprecedented threats. We ask China to play a constructive role so that North Korea will choose dialogue instead of provocations."
Foreign Minister Park Jin shakes hands with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Qingdao, China on Tuesday. /News1
But Wang rejected censure over Beijing's saber-rattling in the Taiwan Strait. "We must adhere to a policy of equality and mutual respect and avoid interfering in each other's internal affairs," he said. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province.
On THAAD, Wang called on the South Korean government to adhere to the "three no's" promised by Yoon's predecessor Moon Jae-in -- no additional deployment of THAAD batteries, no South Korean integration into a U.S. led regional missile defense system and no trilateral alliance with the U.S. and Japan.
But Park said China should concentrate on achieving North Korean denuclearization, adding, "THAAD is directly related to [South] Korea's national security, and China must respect that."
China's state-run Global Times said in an editorial that the THAAD issue is a "major hidden danger that cannot be avoided in China-South Korea ties," and urged the South not to accept a "knife handed by its 'friends.'"
China worries that the battery's powerful radar could be used to spy on its military activities.
China Reluctant to Engage in High-Level Talks with Korea
China Warns Korea Not to Side with U.S.
Chinese Foreign Minister to Visit Seoul
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
english.chosun.com
7. N. Korea sends letter to China slamming Pelosi's Taiwan trip
north Korea supports its ally.
N. Korea sends letter to China slamming Pelosi's Taiwan trip | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · August 10, 2022
By Yi Wonju
SEOUL, Aug. 10 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's ruling Workers' Party (WPK) sent a formal message to the Communist Party of China denouncing Nancy Pelosi's recent visit to Taiwan as a "shameless provocation," Pyongyang's state media reported Wednesday.
In the "solidarity letter" sent to the party's central committee the previous day, the WPK also called the U.S. House of Representatives' trip a "serious infringement" of Beijing's sovereignty, according to the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
"The WPK Central Committee said in the letter that the public junket to Taiwan, made by an incumbent U.S. high-ranking official despite China's strong protest and solemn warning and the universal opposition of the international community, was a serious infringement on China's sovereignty and territorial integrity and an unpardonable political provocation aimed to defame the authority of the CPC and disturb the successful holding of its 20th Congress," the KCNA said.
The party "bitterly denounces the U.S. shameless provocation as a grave challenge to the socialist cause of China" and "ruthless interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state," it added.
The WPK then expressed "full support" for the CPC and the Chinese government in their "just and legitimate" steps to "resolutely repulse the U.S. arbitrariness" and pledged to continue offering full support over the Taiwanese issue.
It also condemned Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy as a "strategic scheme" to isolate and stifle socialism of North Korea and China.
Last week, Pyongyang's foreign ministry was quick in responding to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, calling it an "impudent interference" into the internal affairs of another nation. North Korea has recently stressed its strong ties with China amid a growing Sino-U.S. rivalry.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · August 10, 2022
8. China says S. Korea has vowed to limit THAAD operation, heralding continued diplomatic row
The demand for the "Three NOs " is an infringement of ROK sovereignty and security.
Unfortunately THAAD is a high demand low density resource and we are not likely to be able to deploy additional batteries to Korea. But CHina does not get a vote in how the ROK chooses to defend itself.
Excerpts:
At issue is whether the Yoon government, which was launched in May, needs to inherit the three-no approach of the preceding liberal Moon Jae-in administration -- no additional THAAD deployment in Korea, no participation in a U.S.-led missile defense network and no involvement in a trilateral military alliance with Japan.
Heading back to Seoul following his three-day trip to China, Seoul's foreign minister told reporters he made clear in talks with Wang that it is "neither a (formal) agreement (with China) nor a promise." It means the three-no principle is not binding for the Yoon administration, which has signaled a push for expanding the use of the THAAD system in South Korea in a bid to counter growing security threats from North Korea.
Park added he had clarified that THAAD is a "means for self-defense" against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, and that it is a matter of South Korea's security-related sovereignty.
However, the spokesperson for Beijing's foreign ministry reiterated that Seoul should maintain the three-no policy, which was "sworn formally," along with a promise to restrict the operation of the THAAD battery that has been based in South Korea since 2017.
China says S. Korea has vowed to limit THAAD operation, heralding continued diplomatic row | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 10, 2022
BEIJING/SEOUL, Aug. 10 (Yonhap) -- The Chinese government said Wednesday that South Korea has even pledged to limit the operation of the advanced U.S. missile defense system positioned on its soil in addition to the so-called "Three No's" principle on the THAAD issue.
Wang Wenbin, spokesperson for Beijing's foreign ministry, made the assertion, which runs counter to the conservative Yoon Suk-yeol administration's position on the matter, during a press briefing, a day after the talks between the top diplomats of the neighboring countries in the eastern Chinese port city of Qingdao.
The THAAD issue was discussed in five hours of talks between Foreign Minister Park Jin and his counterpart, Wang Yi.
The two sides agreed on efforts to deal with the thorny matter so that it won't be a stumbling block to bilateral ties any more. Still, relevant disputes are apparently going on.
At issue is whether the Yoon government, which was launched in May, needs to inherit the three-no approach of the preceding liberal Moon Jae-in administration -- no additional THAAD deployment in Korea, no participation in a U.S.-led missile defense network and no involvement in a trilateral military alliance with Japan.
Heading back to Seoul following his three-day trip to China, Seoul's foreign minister told reporters he made clear in talks with Wang that it is "neither a (formal) agreement (with China) nor a promise." It means the three-no principle is not binding for the Yoon administration, which has signaled a push for expanding the use of the THAAD system in South Korea in a bid to counter growing security threats from North Korea.
Park added he had clarified that THAAD is a "means for self-defense" against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, and that it is a matter of South Korea's security-related sovereignty.
However, the spokesperson for Beijing's foreign ministry reiterated that Seoul should maintain the three-no policy, which was "sworn formally," along with a promise to restrict the operation of the THAAD battery that has been based in South Korea since 2017.
"(We) would like to point out that the U.S. deployment of THAAD to South Korea clearly harms China's strategic security interests," he said. "China has expressed concern to the South Korean side several times."
THAAD is the acronym for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system designed to shoot down ballistic missiles in their terminal phase. It uses cutting-edge radar.
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 10, 2022
9. Experts "China's demand for 'Three Dollars of THAAD' interferes with internal affairs... South Korea must protect its security sovereignty"
This is a google translation of a Voice of America report in Korean. Comments from a number of us on the THAAD issue.
I do wish VOA would translate Eun Jung Cho's reporting into English on a regular basis.
Experts "China's demand for 'Three Dollars of THAAD' interferes with internal affairs... South Korea must protect its security sovereignty"
2022.8.10
While differences in positions over the high-altitude missile defense system (THAAD) were confirmed at the Korea-China foreign ministers' meeting in Qingdao, China, US experts criticized China's demand for maintaining three dollars of THAAD as interference in South Korea's internal affairs. He also pointed out that South Korea must make the best decisions for national security. Reporter Jo Eun-jung reports.
"The Chinese government is issuing a 'public advisory' to the Korean government in various areas about what they want," Scott Snyder, director of the U.S. Korean policy at the American Foreign Relations Association, said in a phone call with VOA on the 9th.
[Transcript: Scott Snyder, Director of U.S. Korean Policy, American Foreign Relations Association] “We have seen a number of areas in which the government of the PRC has sent public advisories to South Korea regarding their desire.”
In particular, US experts point out that China's demands for the high-altitude missile defense system (THAAD) are excessive.
The Chinese government is making a strong statement about its position on THAAD to the new Korean government.
It is observed that Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian explicitly demanded the maintenance of the 'Three Dollars THAAD policy' at a regular briefing on the 27th of last month, and it is also observed that he expressed this position at the Korea-China foreign ministers' meeting held in Qingdao, China on the 9th.
SEE ALSO:
China refutes Korea's "security sovereignty" to China's demand for the release of 'Three THAAD'... Signs of a replay of conflict
The 'Three Wars of THAAD' policy was announced by the Moon Jae-in government of South Korea in 2017, and contains the content that it will not deploy additional THAAD, pursue a US-Korea-Japan military alliance, and will not participate in the US-led missile defense system.
South Korea's Yun Seok-yeol government, which took office in May, is stating that the 'three dollars' is not a diplomatic agreement or promise with China.
David Maxwell, a senior researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy, pointed out that China's demand to maintain the 'Three Dollars of THAAD' "infringes on Korea's sovereignty."
[English: China reveals its hand by its continued demand for the 3 Nos and its demand for the 3 Nos is meddling inside the affairs of others. It's really disrespectful to South Korea as a sovereign nation.”
Researcher Maxwell pointed out, “China is revealing its intentions by continuously demanding 'Three THAAD'.
Researcher Maxwell, who was a former chief of staff for the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, pointed out that “China does not have the right to vote in South Korea’s security.”
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Foreign Minister Park Jin on the 9th that 'we should not interfere in each other's internal affairs'.
[녹취: 브루스 클링너 헤리티지재단 선임연구원] “If China believes countries shouldn’t interfere in the internal affairs of other nations, then clearly they should not interfere in South Korea’s decision on what’s best for its national security, including the initial deployment of THAAD or any additional deployments of THAAD which are to better defend South Korea.”
Bruce Klingner, a senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, said, "If China believes that it should not interfere in other countries' internal affairs, then China must clearly not intervene in South Korea's decision to make the best decisions for its national security, such as deploying THAAD." .
Robert Manning, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council, also pointed out that China's demand to maintain the 'three dollars of THAAD' is absurd and does not respect Korea's sovereignty.
He added that if China fails to stop North Korea's nuclear and missile development, it should allow South Korea to defend itself.
[Either they use leverage to stop North Korea from doing all these things which they can't, or they have to live with the consequences which is South Korea has to defend itself."
"China should use its influence to stop North Korea's nuclear and missile development activities, but it can't," Manning said.
Manning also said South Korea should often be reminded that it should not infringe its sovereignty over China.
Researcher Maxwell also said that the THAAD issue is something that South Korea should not surrender to China, and that it should not give up its national interests by yielding to China's coercion.
Researcher Klingner said he had heard from US government officials that there are no additional THAAD deployments in the next five years, as there are many places around the world waiting to deploy THAAD.
Therefore, he said, it is better for South Korea to say that it will make the best decision for South Korea's national interest and national security rather than directly talking about whether or not to deploy additional THAAD to China.
Also, Klingner suggested that participating in the US missile defense system among the 'Three Bulls of THAAD' is a part that South Korea should pursue.
“It is a more effective defense system for the Korean people and territory.”
Researcher Maxwell also said, "Integrated missile defense is the best way to strengthen the defense of the three countries, the United States, South Korea, and Japan from a very real threat from North Korea."
Korea-China “common interest in maintaining semiconductor trade”
China is also sensitive to South Korea's participation in 'Chip 4', a semiconductor supply chain consultative body led by the US.
China is protesting that this consultative body, in which the United States, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan participate, is intended to contain China.
In fact, at the Korea-China Foreign Ministers' Meeting held on the 9th, Minister Park and Director Wang both emphasized the importance of 'stable management of the supply chain', but it is known that they focused on each other differently.
SEE ALSO:
Korea-China foreign ministers' meeting "China plays a constructive role in the North Korean nuclear issue"
Korea clearly emphasizes that 'Chip 4' is never intended to exclude or target any specific country.
In this regard, Snyder said that both the US and China relations have in common that they prioritize the supply chain, but that each consultation has a different purpose, so South Korea must have specific dialogues with both the US and China.
[녹취: 스나이더 국장] “I think that what South Korea is trying to do is to indicate that a closer alignment between the U.S. and South Korea does not mean a zero sum relationship between South Korea and China. But what that ends up looking like and how both sides arrive at a mutually accommodative position, that’s what these two senior officials have to work out.”
“South Korea is trying to let people know that closer ties with the United States do not come at the expense of relations with China,” Snyder said. ” he said.
He said South Korea and China have a mutual benefit in maintaining trade relations, especially in the semiconductor sector.
Director Snyder evaluated that this meeting between Minister Park Jin and Director Wang Yi was important as it was the first high-level bilateral meeting through a visit to the other country.
“The Yun Seok-Yeol administration made it clear that it would put close coordination with the United States at the center of foreign policy, but among them, the Chinese and South Korean governments made an effort to emphasize that the two countries also share mutual interests.”
Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair at the Hudson Institute, said in an email to VOA on the 9th that "South Korea can still maintain a stable relationship with China, knowing that Xi Jinping's interests on key issues are at odds with South Korea's security and technological competitiveness." said.
[패트릭 크로닌 허드슨연구소 아시아태평양 안보석좌] “Foreign Minister Pak Jin’s trip to Qingdao highlights South Korea’s diplomatic agility. Seoul can maintain stable relations with Beijing even while the Yoon administration is aware that Xi Jinping’s interests in key issues run counter to South Korea’s security and technological competitiveness. Alliances, deterrent and defense capabilities, and semiconductor cooperation with like-minded states are vital for South Korea’s sustained independence as a global vital power.”
Chair Cronin said, "Secretary Jin Park's visit to Qingdao shows the agility of Korean diplomacy."
He said, “Allies, deterrence, defense capabilities, and semiconductor cooperation with like-minded countries are essential for Korea to maintain its independence as an international core country.”
This is Jo Eun-jung from VOA News.
10. "Hybrid multilateralism" and the Yoon pursuit of middle power strategy
Congratulations to Ambassador Lee as the new South Korean HUman Rights Envoy for north Korea. She has her work cut out for her.
Compare this with the erroneous speculation that the ROK is not going to support like minded democracies and he US in the region.
PacNet #44 - "Hybrid multilateralism" and the Yoon pursuit of middle power strategy - Pacific Forum
pacforum.org
Unlike his predecessor, President Biden prefers multilateral mechanisms to promote partnership with allies. In particular, he pursues “constructive recoupling” or “relinking” with China, selectively excluding Beijing from access to high-tech and critical strategic materials, rather than all areas of trade.
This multilateralism has intensified in the Indo-Pacific, especially after the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)—the world’s largest free trade agreement, centered around China—came into force. While visiting Asian allies in May, Biden announced the launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), aimed to secure global supply chains and set economic rules and norms for the Indo-Pacific. IPEF serves as a platform for the United States, through cooperation with allies, to contain China’s economic “territorial expansion.” It excludes China from high-tech supply chains and is also a watershed for a potential new global economic order. Implementation of IPEF would assure economic security through a closed supply chain distributing production facilities only among countries sharing American, free-market, values.
Similarly, the strategic objective of the current US-led liberal international order differs from the original liberal order after World War II. The original order sought a multifaceted, extensive international system based on multilateral institutions and free trade among democratic blocs—spreading to non-Western societies post-Cold War. The current order promotes “friend-shoring”—only like-minded countries are grouped in a mini-lateral way.
The new Seoul government’s participation in IPEF suggests the US-Korea alliance will contribute not only to peace on the Korean Peninsula, but also global security and prosperity. Specifically, in transitioning to the so-called “comprehensive strategic alliance,” the two countries have added technology to their existing military/economic agenda. Accordingly, Seoul can stabilize the supply chain, maximize domestic companies’ net profits, and enhance strategic industries’ competitiveness through participation in a comprehensive regional economic cooperation system. In addition, IPEF can allow middle powers like Korea to promote emerging global norms on supply chains, the digital economy, and decarbonization.
Dealing with unlike-minded countries
President Yoon Suk Yeol should consider the following actions, in addition to advancing alliance solidarity.
First, maintain positive relations with China wherever and whenever Korean and Chinese interests align. The two can mutually benefit from stable trade relations, cooperation on environmental issues such as air and marine pollution, and diplomatic collaboration towards North Korea’s denuclearization. Even if Korea is forced to choose between the United States and China, these areas of cooperation can and should be pursued continuously with China. Korean participation in IPEF risks triggering Chinese retribution because Beijing views it as an effort to contain China. Many Korean experts doubt Beijing will engage in outright economic retaliation, however, as was the case after THAAD deployment in 2017, for several reasons. The main ones include President Xi Jinping’s bidding for a third term and the fact that China’s economy has stagnated in the wake of Beijing’s zero-COVID policy, and US-China competition is intensifying. Similarly, Korea’s high dependence on exports to China is a weakness, but Seoul also supplies Beijing with necessary intermediate goods, without which China would not be able to secure supply chain stability. Reminiscent of mutually assured destruction in the Cold War, Korea and China would both suffer from a trade war.
Still, Yoon should take countermeasures to reduce economic dependence. The president should also pursue “values diplomacy” by expanding networks of “friendly countries” and strengthening multilateral partnerships with democratic middle powers to secure strategic leverage against China. Korea, a country that developed and democratized within a quarter century, can advance a rules-based, multilateral approach identifying and addressing global and regional common problems such as climate, energy, public health, and humanitarian aid, where Washington and Beijing need to cooperate. Korea should also facilitate the establishment of a new, more diverse international trade order, incorporating countries with different levels of economic development and diverse political regimes.
Second, Korea should mediate international economic disputes. IPEF’s success depends on reconciling expectations of countries with very different economic development levels. The United States prioritizes export controls in the high-tech sector, while ASEAN and India focus on technological and infrastructure support from advanced countries. Australia and Japan want the United States to participate in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and would like to see IPEF formalized, including the obligations of participant nations. Korea, then, should encourage increased participation to advance IPEF’s legitimacy and representation.
Third, Korea should provide support to “unlike-minded” states in multilateral mechanisms such as RCEP, the ASEAN Regional Forum, G20, and the United Nations. Certainly, the bloc of Western democratic countries reconsolidated following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nonetheless, the G20 appeared far more divided in its response to Russia’s invasion than it did to the financial crisis of 2008. Consequently, an international order based solely on values-based, like-minded states may appear threatening to non-democratic, and neutral, countries. As a middle power, Korea can lead in mitigating this problem and characterizing the IPEF as more inviting.
Hybrid multilateralism
Fourth, the South Korean government, in cooperation with like-minded countries, must carefully evaluate strategic options between values and national interests. Other countries do so all the time. President Biden, for instance, has sought cooperation from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—despite concerns over bin Salman’s authoritarianism and the Jamal Khashoggi killing—to counter the global oil shortage. Moreover, Washington considers lifting sanctions against oil-rich Venezuela to respond against Russia’s “weaponization” of energy resources. The United States and its Western allies now view energy from the Middle East and South America (as well as Africa) as an alternative to Russian imports, even though the resulting revenues empower certain authoritarian governments. To resolve the dilemma between resource security and value diplomacy, the US may justify “hybrid multilateralism” by selectively incorporating authoritarian resource-rich countries into existing or evolving multilateral platforms, including IPEF.
On a final note, middle powers have opportunities to facilitate in areas like climate change, pandemic response, vaccine research, and the maintenance of free trade, as the United States’ and China’s focus has shifted more to their own rivalry instead of the provision of global public goods. From the view of the two great powers, it would be advantageous to attract more countries to their own side as the competition intensifies. Therefore, the collective choices and actions of middle powers—armed with numerical superiority and a united voice—could lead to more contention, or cooperation, between multilateral or minilateral networks driven by these great powers. For now, most middle powers, including Korea, tend to lean toward the liberal international order (LIO) because they have achieved stability and development while pursuing democracy, free trade, and multilateralism within the LIO framework. They believe that it is still in their national interest to support and improve LIOs that reflect universal human values. Ultimately, the future of the LIO depends on whether the United States has the ability and resolve to provide global public goods and, at the same time, whether the international community, centered on middle powers, supports US leadership.
Shin-wha Lee (swlee922@gmail.com) is Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Korea University and President of the Korean Academic Council on the UN System (KACUNS). She is also South Korea’s Ambassador-at-Large on International Cooperation on North Korean Human Rights.
PacNet commentaries and responses represent the views of the respective authors. Alternative viewpoints are always welcomed and encouraged.
Photo: The 20th President Inauguration Ceremony by Korea.net and Yang Dong Wook
pacforum.org
11. Japan could send a message to North Korea, China by amending its constitution
(and to South Korea, too)
Tyler Michals: Japan could send a message to North Korea, China by amending its constitution
Chicago Tribune · by Tyler MichalsChicago TribuneAug 08, 2022 at 3:00 pm
In May of 2017, I was in Kyoto, Japan, sitting on the patio of a Starbucks while scrolling through news headlines on my phone. The top story that day was that North Korea had test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, which had landed in the Sea of Japan. Yet, everyone around me was carrying on with their day, seemingly unbothered.
It’s the sort of danger that the Japanese have come to live with. Japan occupies one of the most precarious geographical positions anywhere in the world. Its closest neighbors include Russia, North Korea and China. Earlier this year, North Korea resumed test-firing of ICBMs off Japan’s coast. More recently, using House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as a springboard, China has been acting more belligerently than usual. Following Pelosi’s trip, China fired several missiles that landed in waters that fall within Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Given the tumult in Europe and Asia, respectively, America’s military might risks being spread too thin. Our allies will need to shoulder more of the burden in defending democracy abroad.
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To that end, Japan’s postwar constitution, in place since 1947, poses a hindrance. Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution states, in part, “The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” To that end, Article 9 continues: “Land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be sustained.” Drafted by American legal scholars after World War II, with the enthusiastic support of Gen. Douglas MacArthur, the provision sought to extinguish Japanese militarism for all time.
The pacifist constitution was idealistic but shortsighted — the product of nearly a century of tensions between the U.S. and Japan from 1853 to 1945. Between Commodore Matthew Perry’s demand that Japan open its ports to foreigners, American annexation of the Hawaiian Islands, exploitation of Japanese nationals in California and the Pacific theater of World War II, a future alliance between the United States and Japan would have been difficult to imagine. Nevertheless, Japan now stands as one of America’s foremost allies.
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For decades Japan has grappled with what to do about its constitution. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated last month, was a staunch proponent of amending Article 9 to give the Japanese military a sound constitutional footing. In the elections taking place in the immediate aftermath of Abe’s death, his Liberal Democratic Party won a sweeping victory. But exit polls indicate that just 3.2% of LDP voters did so on the basis of revising the constitution. Polls further indicate that just 36% of Japanese support revising the constitution, while 38% are opposed.
To be sure, Japan’s constitutional provision barring it from maintaining a military has long been honored more in the breach than the observance. Notwithstanding the command of Article 9, Japan retains one of the largest militaries in the world. To keep it “constitutional,” the Japanese military is humbly referred to as the Japanese Self-Defense Force. Still, Japan spends only about 1% of its gross domestic product on defense, which is a pittance relative to what current circumstances demand. Amending Article 9′s pacifist provisions should allow for more spending on national defense and further strategic cooperation among Japan, South Korea and the United States.
American backing of a revision to Article 9 would be provocative, but a powerful Japan is the best hedge against an aggressive China. It would send a strong signal to Beijing about the costs of provoking a general war in the Pacific. What’s more, it would send a message to the nations of Asia that, however zealous China may be in its efforts to assert its dominance, the democracies of the region are willing and able to defend liberty in an equal and opposite measure.
As we observe the 77th anniversary of the atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it’s worth contemplating the horrors of war and particularly the damage that can be wrought by nuclear weaponry. Today, right in the middle of downtown Hiroshima, there remains a ruined building — the only structure remaining from the area in which a nuclear bomb went off so many years ago. It still stands as a somber reminder amid a now-bustling, modern city.
Tyler Michals is a practicing attorney in Chicago.
Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email letters@chicagotribune.com.
Chicago Tribune · by Tyler MichalsChicago TribuneAug 08, 2022 at 3:00 pm
12. U.S. has returned 31% of Yongsan base
Wednesday
August 10, 2022
U.S. has returned 31% of Yongsan base
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/08/10/national/defense/korea-yongsan-garrison-return/20220810183158719.html
A view of the Yongsan base from the presidential office located in the Defense Ministry in Seoul on May 2. [KIM MIN-SEOK]
The U.S. military returned 31 percent of land at the Yongsan base in central Seoul as of last month, according to the Land Ministry, a step toward the building of a national park there.
“A total of 764,000 square meters [around 190 acres] of land have been returned in three different installments since December 2021, which is about 31 percent of the total base area,” said the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport in a statement Tuesday.
The base, which totals around 2 million square meters, is being returned in parts to the Korean government based on an agreement Seoul and Washington struck in 2004 to move the base to Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi and other parts of Korea.
The process, delayed for over a decade, finally began in December 2020 when some 50,000 square meters of the base, including a softball field, were returned.
An additional 165,000 square meters of the base, which used to hold military dormitories and offices, were returned in February, and an additional 368,000 square meters that hold an underground bunker and a baseball field were returned in May, according to the ministry.
Still remaining on the Yongsan base is the Combined Forces Command, a key military facility. Its new headquarters is being built in Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, currently home to the headquarters of the US Forces Korea and the U.S.-led UN Command.
The Combined Forces Command was set to relocate to the base in Pyeongtaek later this year.
Washington and Seoul struck another agreement in June 2020 to keep some U.S. military facilities remaining in Yongsan, such as a branch office of the USFK or the UN Command.
This plan, however, has been up in the air since President Yoon Suk-yeol moved the presidential office from the Blue House to the Defense Ministry headquarters in Yongsan, which sits adjacent to the base.
Korea intends to make a public park out of the returned lands in Yongsan.
The park would be connected to the areas holding the National Museum of Korea and the War Memorial of Korea.
The schedule to open the park, once set at 2027, was adjusted in December 2021 to at least seven years after a complete return of the base, according to the Land Ministry.
The deadline for a complete return of the base has not been set by Washington and Seoul.
BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]
13. [INTERVIEW] Polish arms deal may well lead to greater opportunities for Korea: expert
Concur. The ROK defense industry has a bright future.
[INTERVIEW] Polish arms deal may well lead to greater opportunities for Korea: expert
The Korea Times · August 10, 2022
The K2 Black Panther / Courtesy of Hyundai Rotem
Ukraine war raises interest in Korean weapons suppliers to help upgrade aging Eastern European ordnance
By Jung Min-ho
Bruce BennettSouth Korea's recent arms deals with Poland demonstrate its potential in the global military procurement market and it may well lead to greater opportunities, particularly in Eastern Europe, according to an expert.
"The Ukraine experience suggests that countries don't have to have top-of-the-line weapons to defeat parts of the Russian forces," Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corporation, a U.S.-based policy think tank, told The Korea Times. "One of the challenges for the Eastern European countries is to have weapons good enough to be able to fight and defeat Russian aggression … So I expect that they will look across the lines at their forces."
In South Korea's biggest arms export deal, the Polish government announced last month that it will buy 48 FA-50s, a light combat jet co-developed by Korea Aerospace Industries and Lockheed Martin, 980 K2 battle tanks, manufactured by Hyundai Rotem and 648 K9 howitzers made by Hanwha Defense.
If finalized, it would be the country's first major contract to sell weapons to a NATO member at a time when many Eastern European nations, still armed largely with Soviet-era weapons, are keen to enhance their defense capabilities amid Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine.
"In many cases, their priorities will depend on the status of existing weapons, which are so old that they need to be replaced, probably because they have become difficult and costly to maintain when you can't get parts and supplies from Russia," Bennett said.
South Korean weapons may not be the world's most advanced, but they are still competitive and could thrive in the market against more costly competitors.
"They offer a niche opportunity for export to other countries that can't afford to modernize fully with top-of-the-line weapons (which means most countries). Of course, some weapons the ROK (South Korea) is developing are top-of-the-line or close to it," Bennett added. "The ROK has done a great job of identifying this kind of niche relative to the U.S. and European countries and filling it with lower cost ROK systems."
A crowd looks at a damaged Russian tank on display in Kyiv, Ukraine, in this May 23 file photo. AP-Yonhap
Given that South Korea needs up-to-date weapons for its own defense against North Korea, the development and production of them also provide benefits for its own military.
"By producing and selling these weapons, the ROK brings down the price that it pays for the ROK military to acquire these weapons because the more that are made, the lower the unit cost," Bennett said. "This was a clever strategy developed by the ROK many years ago, and it is now paying off."
After the Seoul-Warsaw deal made headlines, countries around the world are paying attention to whether it will be a success. If so, new opportunities could arise, when other major arms exporters such as Germany face production limits as they try to beef up their defense capabilities significantly following the nearby war.
"Korea's challenge will be whether it can provide weapons on time to Poland and provide superior maintenance and logistical support. The other European countries will watch ROK's performance with Poland, and that will affect whether they do or do not consider the ROK as a potential weapons source," Bennett said. "The ROK must perform well on that contract and offer similar support to other countries. If the ROK can, that will really help ROK arms exports … One of the big problems will be finding enough personnel to perform required maintenance and support for both the ROK and foreign users of ROK arms, especially as demographics are causing the size of the ROK military to shrink dramatically."
According to a recent report by the Export-Import Bank of Korea, the nation's arms exports reached a record high of more than 7 billion dollars last year. Its exports during the 2017-21 period were 177 percent higher than that in the 2012-16 period ― by far the highest growth among the top 20 exporters.
The country is now the eighth largest, and Asia's second, arms exporter ― a rapid rise from 31st position on the list by the SIPRI arms transfer database in 2000.
The Korea Times · August 10, 2022
14. Seoul reiterates that '3 Nos' policy is not commitment to China
Minister Park standing up to China's bullying. Again I argue this is more important than a face to face meeting between the President and the Speaker.
Seoul reiterates that '3 Nos' policy is not commitment to China
The Korea Times · by 2022-08-09 21:25 | Foreign Affairs · August 10, 2022
Foreign Minister Park Jin speaks during a press conference in Qingdao, China, Wednesday. Yonhap By Kang Seung-woo
Foreign Minister Park Jin reaffirmed, Wednesday, that the so-called "Three Nos" policy concerning the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery in South Korea is not a commitment to China amid growing pressure from Beijing over the U.S. anti-missile defense system.
"I made it clear to the Chinese side that the THAAD deployment is a matter of our security and sovereignty against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats," Park said during a press conference in Qingdao, China.
Park and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, held talks, Tuesday, where they exchanged views on the THAAD issue, according to the both countries' foreign ministries.
China wary of South Korea's US-centered policy
The meeting, the second of its kind since Park took office in May, took place as the Chinese government had urged the new South Korean administration to uphold the Three Nos policy from the previous Moon Jae-in administration. The policy refers to no additional deployments of U.S. THAAD batteries, no South Korean integration into a U.S.-led regional missile defense system and no trilateral alliance with the U.S. and Japan.
However, Park told the National Assembly, last month, that the Yoon Suk-yeol administration will not follow the policy.
Hours after Park's press conference, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said in a press briefing that South Korea even pledged to restrict the operation of THAAD on the Korean Peninsula in addition to upholding the Three Nos policy, raising speculation that the two countries still remain far apart over the issue.
In response to Wang's remarks, the South Korean foreign ministry said in a statement that Beijing's assertion that Seoul declared the Three Nos policy and also pledged to limit the THAAD operation, seem to point to the previous administration's position on the issue, reaffirming Park's earlier remarks from the press conference.
Following the ministerial meeting, the Chinese foreign ministry issued a press release saying that the ministers had an in-depth exchange of views and expounded their respective positions on THAAD, while stressing the need to take each other's security concerns seriously and to strive to properly handle the issue.
While apparently rejecting China's claims, however, Park said both sides had shared the view that the THAAD issue should not be a stumbling block to South Korea-China relations as the two countries are set to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties later this month.
Park was also said to have told Wang that THAAD is not and should not be the basis of relations between South Korea and China.
As for Seoul's decision to attend a preliminary meeting of the U.S.-proposed chip alliance, also known as Chip 4 or Fab 4, Park said he had explained to Wang that its decision was made in consideration of national interest and was not intended to exclude China. The platform is believed to contain Beijing's rising influence in global supply chains.
"Considering economic cooperation and economic interdependence, I told the United States that the Fab 4 should not be a platform to exclude China. In addition, the trade structures of the two countries are closely intertwined, so any exclusion of China through the chip partnership would not be feasible practically," Park added.
The Korea Times · by 2022-08-09 21:25 | Foreign Affairs · August 10, 2022
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
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