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Quotes of the Day:


“The trouble is that most people want to be right. The very best people, however, want to know if they're right.”
-  John Cleese

"The concept of a full-time Army unit dedicated to UW had many opponents after World War II. Many considered UW a task for conventional formations with no need for another school and another elite unit, especially during downsizing of the force. The newly formed Air Force, along with many in the newly formed Central Intelligence Agency, believed their joint capabilities could effectively support, organize, and utilize resistance forces. McClure’s background and contacts in running psychological operations—not only during war, but also during the post-conflict years—built his credibility with the men who would be Army Chiefs of Staffs for years to come. His deep understanding of the inner workings of the War Department, the Pentagon, and (later) the DOD gave him the ability to find and recruit men like Bank, Volckmann, Blackburn, and Fertig, and set the necessary conditions to be in the right place at the right time to stand up a UW capability in the Army."
- FM 3-18 Special Forces Operations, 2014

"If you can’t define a winning exit strategy for the American people, where we somehow come out ahead, then we’re wasting our money, and we’re wasting our strategic resources."
- Jon Huntsman, Jr.




1. North Korea: Is a “Full-Range” ICBM Test Coming Soon?

2. Statement by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on the Republic of Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy

3. Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region​ (ROK)​

4. White House hails S. Korea's own Indo-Pacific strategy, expects stronger security ties

5. South Korea Barely Mentions China in New Indo-Pacific Strategy

6. South Korean response to North Korean military moves show trial and error, analysts say

7. North Korean Drones Befuddle South, Highlight Growing Role for Tiny UAVs

8. S. Korea endorses key projects to upgrade F-15K fighters, buy refueling tankers

9. Second-day Sitting of 6th Plenum of 8th C.C., WPK

10. North Korea's Kim unveils new military goals at key party meeting -KCNA

11. North Korea-Linked Lazarus Group Poses as VC Firms to Spread Malware

12. N. Korea reorganizes Camp 15 to increase prison population

13. N. Korea selects top students to become future managers of economic growth zones

14. Kim Jong Un congratulates aerospace development agency on Seoul satellite photos

15. Restaurant under covert Chinese police station suspicion to make announcement this week

16. South Korea must respond to N.Korea despite its nuclear arms - Yoon

17. Yoon berates defense minister over botched operation against N.K. drones

18. South Korea’s tech no match for intruding NK drones

19. Seoul vows double retaliation against North Korean drones




1. North Korea: Is a “Full-Range” ICBM Test Coming Soon?



​No one else is providing this level of analysis in such a clear and succinct way..


Excerpts:


There is only one way to know for sure that North Korea has an ICBM that can successfully re-enter the earth’s atmosphere and detonate a nuclear weapon on U.S. territory. That would be for North Korea to conduct a full-range test of one of their systems by firing a missile at some empty spot in the ocean where it would detonate the nuclear warhead. North Korea’s solid-fuel technology cannot yet fuel an ICBM system, and the Hwasong-17 appears still to be too unreliable to conduct such a test. That means the most likely candidates for the job would be either the Hwasong-14 or Hwasong-15, especially if the test is to be conducted in the near future.
The biggest question is, does leadership in North Korea believe it needs to conduct such a test? Since intelligence theory describes threat as capabilities plus intent, it will depend on whether or not the regime in Pyongyang considers demonstrating an ICBM nuclear-strike capability to the world as being vital to its national interests. It is my assessment that North Korea does in fact have this capability. If Pyongyang choses to demonstrate it, the test will create quite a fuss, and maybe even generate a new dialogue.
This is what North Korea may want – to spark a great deal of “what if” questions, and perhaps cause some who are ignorant about North Korea’s political warfare strategy to urge our government to ease sanctions or move away from the ROK-U.S. alliance. If this event does occur in the future, we must keep in mind that it would only prove something we already know – that North Korea is serious about developing a capability to target the United States with a nuclear weapon.




North Korea: Is a “Full-Range” ICBM Test Coming Soon?

19fortyfive.com · by Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. · December 27, 2022

North Korea’s weapons systems have developed in important ways since 2017. A spate of missile tests have involved submarine-launched ballistic missiles and short-range ballistic missiles. Of special interest to the United States and the international system, though, are tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles with ranges sufficient to reach all or most of America with a nuclear weapon.

(Subscribe to Our YouTube Channel Here. Check out More 19FortyFive Videos Here)

These tests demonstrate missiles with vastly increased accuracy, enhanced abilities to evade U.S. and allied defenses, and a diversity of systems that give North Korea important options during wartime.

Russian Help

North Korea’s testing of advanced systems in recent years means we are now looking at a new paradigm. Several of the systems the North Koreans now have and are working to incorporate into their military are either coming from the Russians or being built with the assistance of Russian companies.

A good example of this is a missile system we have seen the North Koreans test several times that looks remarkably like Russia’s Iskander system. In recent years, the United States has sanctioned Russian companies several times for assisting North Korean missile development. This is new. Even during the Cold War, North Korea had to look elsewhere for ballistic missile development. (It did sometimes get old systems from former Soviet client states.) But that has changed, and the threat North Korea is able to pose to South Korea and the United States is now exacerbated by Russian assistance.

How capable are the new ICBM systems we have seen tested? The Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 have actually proven to be reliable in the few tests that have been conducted. Both systems can hit the United States, with the Hwasong-15 being able to travel the farthest and carry the heaviest payload. In theory, it could reach the U.S. East Coast.

Growing Capabilities

The Hwasong-17 is the largest ballistic missile the North Koreans have ever launched, and it is significantly larger than the Hwasong-15. Its testing record, however, is mixed at best. The North Koreans also recently tested a solid-fuel engine that may be powerful enough to serve as the first stage of an ICBM (or an SLBM).

Also of significance is the recent test of what Pyongyang describes as a “space launch vehicle” to launch a spy satellite into space. They even showed pictures they claimed were of Seoul, taken by the satellite. While a simple spy satellite poses little threat to South Korea or the United States, the North Koreans are known to be developing their electromagnetic pulse technology. If used by a satellite or satellites, this could be a significant threat to the United States and key allies in the region.

All of this leads to the biggest question analysts in the United States continue to debate. Since North Korea has never conducted a “full-range” test of an ICBM (in other words, a test using a traditional test-launch trajectory to the range of a missile), how do we know that they could launch an ICBM toward a target, re-enter the earth’s atmosphere successfully, and detonate a nuclear weapon? Tests conducted since 2017 show that both the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 have the potential range to hit the U.S., and also indicate successful re-entry into the earth’s atmosphere. Of course, these tests were conducted using a dummy warhead, and thus some pundits claim we still don’t know whether North Korea could pull this off.

Knowns and Unknowns

There is only one way to know for sure that North Korea has an ICBM that can successfully re-enter the earth’s atmosphere and detonate a nuclear weapon on U.S. territory. That would be for North Korea to conduct a full-range test of one of their systems by firing a missile at some empty spot in the ocean where it would detonate the nuclear warhead. North Korea’s solid-fuel technology cannot yet fuel an ICBM system, and the Hwasong-17 appears still to be too unreliable to conduct such a test. That means the most likely candidates for the job would be either the Hwasong-14 or Hwasong-15, especially if the test is to be conducted in the near future.

The biggest question is, does leadership in North Korea believe it needs to conduct such a test? Since intelligence theory describes threat as capabilities plus intent, it will depend on whether or not the regime in Pyongyang considers demonstrating an ICBM nuclear-strike capability to the world as being vital to its national interests. It is my assessment that North Korea does in fact have this capability. If Pyongyang choses to demonstrate it, the test will create quite a fuss, and maybe even generate a new dialogue.

This is what North Korea may want – to spark a great deal of “what if” questions, and perhaps cause some who are ignorant about North Korea’s political warfare strategy to urge our government to ease sanctions or move away from the ROK-U.S. alliance. If this event does occur in the future, we must keep in mind that it would only prove something we already know – that North Korea is serious about developing a capability to target the United States with a nuclear weapon.

Now a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr. (Ph.D. Union Institute), is an award-winning professor of political science at Angelo State University and a retired Marine. He was formerly on the faculty at the Marine Corps Command and Staff College (2005–2010) and the Air Command and Staff College (2003–2005).

19fortyfive.com · by Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. · December 27, 2022



2. Statement by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on the Republic of Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy


ROK-US interests align.


Statement by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on the Republic of Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy | The White House

whitehouse.gov · by The White House · December 28, 2022

The United States welcomes the Republic of Korea’s adoption of its new Indo-Pacific Strategy as a reflection of our shared commitment to the region’s security and growing prosperity. The strategy sets forth a comprehensive approach that demonstrates the commitment of President Yoon and the Korean people to upholding universal values such as the rule of law and human rights. The ROK’s goal to expand its cooperation with other allies and partners across the Indo-Pacific will strengthen our shared ability to advance international peace, security, and promote nuclear nonproliferation. The strategy will also enhance the region’s economic security networks, cooperation in science and technology, and engagement on climate change and energy security. We are grateful for President Yoon’s and the ROK’s leadership, and congratulate the people of the ROK on their new strategy, which will help the United States and our partners advance a free, peaceful, and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

###

whitehouse.gov · by The White House · December 28, 2022




​3. Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region​ (ROK)​



​You can view the 24 page document in your browser at this link: ​https://overseas.mofa.go.kr/viewer/skin/doc.html?fn=20221228060752073.pdf&rs=/viewer/result/202212


​You can download the document in PDF at this link: https://overseas.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5676/down.do?brd_id=302&seq=322133&data_tp=A&file_seq=1​



​Rules and norms are mentioned 21 and 18 times respectively and international order is used 7 times..​ (ROK and US interests align).


Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region

Date

2022-12-28 18:08:21






​Some Key excerpts (all references to China [and South China Sea] are here):​


We are living in the Indo-Pacific era. Home to 65% of the world population,

the Indo-Pacific accounts for more than 60% of the world’s GDP, and half

of global maritime transport. Peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region

directly affect our survival and prosperity. That is why I propose fostering a

“free, peaceful, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region” through solidarity and

cooperation with major countries including ASEAN.

Remarks by President Yoon Suk Yeol

at the ROK-ASEAN Summit (November 11, 2022)



The Republic of Korea is an Indo-Pacific nation. Our national interests

are directly tied to the stability and prosperity in the region. Home to 65%

of the world population, the Indo-Pacific accounts for 62% of the world’s

GDP, 46% of international trade, and half of global maritime transport. It

is also an economically and technologically dynamic region where our key

partners of strategic industries such as semiconductors are located.


The Indo-Pacific region is also home to many key strategic shipping

routes. Most of our trade depends on sea lines of communication, with

a significant portion going through the Strait of Hormuz, the Indian

Ocean, the Malacca Strait, and the South China Sea. In particular, the

South China Sea is a key sea route, accounting for around 64% and

46% of our crude oil transport and natural gas transport, respectively.


We will pursue more mutually beneficial and substantive

cooperation by harmonizing ASEAN’s needs with our strengths,

particularly focusing on digital, climate change and environment,

and health. As part of these efforts, we plan to continuously increase

the ASEAN-ROK, Mekong-ROK, and other cooperation funds.

Furthermore, considering the changing security environment, we will

strengthen strategic communication and cooperation with ASEAN not

only on the traditional security issues related to the Korean Peninsula

and the South China Sea, but also on economic security, maritime

security, and other emerging security issues.



With our closest neighbor, Japan, we will seek a forward-looking

partnership that supports our common interests and values. Improved

relations with Japan is essential for fostering cooperation and solidarity

among like-minded Indo-Pacific nations; we are thus continuing our

diplomatic efforts to restore mutual trust and advance relations. With

China, a key partner for achieving prosperity and peace in the Indo-

Pacific region, we will nurture a sounder and more mature relationship

as we pursue shared interests based on mutual respect and reciprocity,

guided by international norms and rules.


The ROK, Japan, and China together account for 20% of the world’s

population and 25% of the global GDP, and trilateral cooperation

among these three countries is indispensable to the establishment of

stability and the achievement of prosperity and peace in the Indo-

Pacific. By resuming the ROK-Japan-China Trilateral Summit and

reinforcing the capacity and structure of the Trilateral Cooperation

Secretariat (TCS), we will seek new opportunities and momentum for

regional cooperation in Northeast Asia. In particular, we intend to

strengthen the trilateral cooperation system in the areas of green and

digital transitions. We seek to contribute to regional peace and stability

by harmoniously developing ROK-US-Japan cooperation and ROKJapan-

China cooperation.



4. White House hails S. Korea's own Indo-Pacific strategy, expects stronger security ties


(2nd LD) White House hails S. Korea's own Indo-Pacific strategy, expects stronger security ties | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · December 28, 2022

(ATTN: ADDS Chinese government's response in paras 8-10)

By Chang Dong-woo and Yi Wonju

SEOUL/WASHINGTON, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- The White House was quick to issue a statement welcoming South Korea's adoption of its Indo-Pacific strategy, describing it as a "reflection" of the allies' shared commitment to regional security and prosperity.

The Yoon Suk Yeol administration on Tuesday made public a 37-page document detailing Seoul's diplomatic principles on issues related to the Indo-Pacific region in line with its goal of emerging as a "global pivotal state," a follow-up to Yoon's declaration during his visit to Cambodia in November for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit.

He stressed South Korea's commitment to "freedom, peace and prosperity built on a rules-based order" for the Indo-Pacific region, prompting a view that the country might be seeking a shift in its traditional strategy of balancing relations with Washington and China.

In the final report, released Tuesday, on Seoul's new Indo-Pacific strategy, Yoon's office presented nine core tasks to fulfill its vision for a free, peaceful and prosperous region, including the strengthening of nonproliferation and counterterrorism efforts across the region and expanding comprehensive security cooperation.

"The United States welcomes the Republic of Korea's adoption of its new Indo-Pacific Strategy as a reflection of our shared commitment to the region's security and growing prosperity," National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in the statement. "The strategy sets forth a comprehensive approach that demonstrates the commitment of President Yoon and the Korean people to upholding universal values, such as the rule of law and human rights."


Sullivan said South Korea's goal to expand cooperation with its allies and partners across the Indo-Pacific will strengthen the "shared ability" with the U.S. to "advance international peace, security and promote nuclear nonproliferation."

"The strategy will also enhance the region's economic security networks, cooperation in science and technology, and engagement on climate change and energy security," he added.

China reiterated its negative view of what it calls an "exclusive small group," an expression it has often used to describe the Quad, involving the U.S., Japan, Australia and India, or security partnerships among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. In its Indo-Pacific strategy, Seoul made clear its support for the Quad seen by Beijing as aimed at countering its clout in the region.

"China has argued that it is in the common interest of countries in the region to work together, opposing an exclusive small group, to promote regional peace, stability, development and prosperity," Wang Wenbin, spokesman for Beijing's foreign ministry, said during a regular press briefing.

He said, "We hope that South Korea will make proactive contributions together with China to promote sound and stable development of bilateral relations and promote peace, stability, development and prosperity in the region."

Yoon's office emphasized its Indo-Pacific strategy is not meant to either exclude or contain a particular nation, stating that Beijing is a "major partner" for cooperation in efforts for peace and prosperity in the region.

An official at Seoul's foreign ministry also said the government had communicated closely with China and other major countries in drafting the strategy.

"Universal values and a rules-based order are acceptable to anyone, and no country will oppose this," the official said.

"The key is that South Korea will be leading in setting the agenda," he added, noting the strategy reflects the growing diplomatic role of the South.


The ministry, meanwhile, briefed a group of foreign envoys in Seoul on the initiative. Speaking at the start of his presentation, Foreign Minister Park Jin called it the strategy the de-facto "foreign policy doctrine" of the Yoon administration.

"The announcement today of our Indo-Pacific strategy marks a new chapter in Korean diplomacy, hailing a new era of proactive Korean diplomacy in regional and global affairs," he said. "You can regard this as the foreign policy doctrine of the Yoon Suk Yeol government."

According to his ministry, the Indo-Pacific region is home to 65 percent of the world's population and accounts for 62 percent of the world's gross domestic product.

Maintaining a peaceful and stable Indo-Pacific is critical to the country making its "next leap forward," the ministry said, noting that the region represented 78 percent and 67 percent of South Korea's total exports and imports, respectively, as of 2021.

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · December 28, 2022


5. South Korea Barely Mentions China in New Indo-Pacific Strategy


Every reference to rules (21 times), norms (18 times), and the rules-based international order (7 times), could be considered a reference to China.


South Korea Barely Mentions China in New Indo-Pacific Strategy

  • Yoon unveils first independent strategy on the region
  • South Korea seeks to resume summit with Japan and China

BySangmi Cha

December 28, 2022 at 12:53 AM EST

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-28/south-korea-barely-mentions-china-in-new-indo-pacific-strategy?sref=hhjZtX76


South Korea put out its first strategy report for the Indo-Pacific region, which hardly mentions China and signals Seoul is seeking a cautious balance between its biggest trade partner Beijing and main military ally, the US.

The 43-page document released Wednesday and titled the “Strategy for a Free, Peaceful, and Prosperous Indo-Pacific Region,” issued a single paragraph about relations with China. Beijing was called a “key partner” and the report said Seoul “will nurture a sounder and more mature relationship as we pursue shared interests based on mutual respect and reciprocity, guided by international norms and rules.”

President Yoon Suk Yeol’s government has come under pressure from Washington to comply with the Biden administration’s sweeping curbs on the sale of advanced chips to China, where major South Korean semiconductor makers have facilities. President Xi Jinping met Yoon last month seeking high-tech cooperation and called for accelerating negotiations on a trade deal.

The US welcomed the strategy report with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan saying in a statement that it “will strengthen our shared ability to advance international peace, security, and promote nuclear nonproliferation.”

China Courts South Korea as US Chips Campaign Gains Steam

Yoon came into office in May pledging to take a tough line on China and has since stepped up security cooperation with the US. But his administration has not offered its full-throated support for Biden’s initiative on chips. 

The report indirectly mentioned South Korea’s concerns about China’s military actions toward Taiwan, with the text saying Seoul reaffirms “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and for the security and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific.”

China Holds Biggest Military Drill Near Taiwan Since Pelosi Trip

The document called for resuming a summit among South Korea, Japan and China, which was last held in 2019. It said cooperation with Japan “is essential for fostering cooperation and solidarity among like-minded Indo-Pacific nations,” in a sign Yoon is seeking to improve ties that were frosty between the neighbors before he took office.

The report also indicated South Korea planned to “gradually expand” cooperation with the Quad grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the US that is seen as a counter to China’s assertiveness in the region.


6. South Korean response to North Korean military moves show trial and error, analysts say

South Korean response to North Korean military moves show trial and error, analysts say

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · December 27, 2022

U.S. Air Force F-16s and South Korean F-35A Lightning IIs escort two U.S. B-1B bombers entering the Korean Air Defense Identification Zone on Nov. 19, 2022. (Megan Estrada/U.S. Air Force)


CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — South Korea’s aggressive response to North Korea’s record-setting pace of weapons tests this year has revealed the risks in the South’s defensive systems, a policy analyst said Tuesday.

The communist regime launched over 70 missiles in 36 separate days of testing so far this year, an unprecedented pace during South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s first year of his presidency.

Yoon took office in May on a pledge to respond firmly to North Korean provocations and to strengthen the South’s military alliance with the United States. Under Yoon, large-scale military drills with the U.S. have resumed and the South has stepped up its response to North Korea with displays of airpower and by launching missiles and firing artillery of its own.

But Yoon’s military actions have highlighted some of the “inherent risks” in responding to North Korean provocations, Soo Kim, a policy analyst for Rand Corp. and an adjunct instructor at American University, told Stars and Stripes by email on Tuesday.

South Korea on Monday scrambled a small fleet of aircraft to intercept at least five small drones sent by North Korea over the border into an area northwest of Seoul.

Military helicopters from the South fired over 100 machine gun rounds at the drones flying in rural areas, a Ministry of National Defense official told Stars and Stripes by phone on the customary condition of anonymity on Tuesday.

Another aircraft, a South Korean KA-1 light attack plane, crashed during takeoff in Gangwon province. The two-man crew safely ejected, according to a message to reporters Monday from the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.

None of the drones were downed or captured.

The drones were intermittently detected on military radar for roughly five hours starting at 10:25 a.m., a ministry spokesman told reporters Tuesday. He said one drone was detected in northern Seoul and the remaining four were spotted in rural areas along the west coast.

Following the incident, the South Korean military launched its own “corresponding measures” by deploying reconnaissance aircraft beyond the northern border to take photos of military facilities, according to the ministry.

The Joint Chiefs apologized Tuesday for failing to shoot down the drones and for having “caused a lot of concern” to the public, according to a statement. In addition to reviewing its forces and procedures, the military will create a unit dedicated to drone warfare, according to the Joint Chiefs statement.

Three months ago, a South Korean short-range ballistic missile fired toward the East Sea, or the Sea of Japan, crashed Oct. 5 near a residential area during a drill in the coastal city of Gangneung. The failed missile was one of several fired by South Korea and U.S. forces after the North launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japanese territory the previous day.

Kim said the drone response and failed missile are reminders of why the U.S. and South Korea militaries exercise together.

“The most recent incident underscores preparation,” Soo said. “To be a passive onlooker while Pyongyang makes incursions into your own territory would send the wrong message to [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un] about Seoul’s ability to stand up for itself.”

Soo added that Monday’s KA-1 crash may have revealed vulnerabilities in South Korea’s defenses and could have “inadvertently given a slight boost to Kim’s confidence.”

Yang Uk, an associate research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, told Stars and Stripes by phone that while the accidents were unfortunate, they were “vital” to South Korea’s defense.

“By locating and correcting these failures, Korea can be ready for war in real life,” Yang said. “We were unprepared and that’s why [these] incidents happened. The new administration is properly preparing ... by doing a lot of exercises, locating those failures and fixing the problem.”

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · December 27, 2022


7. North Korean Drones Befuddle South, Highlight Growing Role for Tiny UAVs


I wonder what actions north Korean conducted that we missed as we focused on these drones? All warfare is based on deception. What did they not want us to see?



North Korean Drones Befuddle South, Highlight Growing Role for Tiny UAVs​

December 27, 2022 5:25 AM

voanews.com

Seoul, South Korea —

South Korea’s military expressed regret that it failed to shoot down any of the five North Korean surveillance drones that intruded into South Korean airspace, as Seoul officials vowed Tuesday to prevent future incursions.

One of the drones flew as far as the northern Seoul metropolitan area Monday afternoon before returning to North Korea about three hours later. But the South’s military lost track of the other four aircraft and they have not been found, according to officials.

In a statement Tuesday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff admitted that the country’s air defenses are better equipped to detect and strike North Korea’s armed drones, which are larger and pose a bigger threat. The surveillance drones sent Monday were less than 3 meters long, it said.

SEE ALSO:

North Korea Sends Drones Into South Korea in Brazen Incursion

The incident highlights the challenges of guarding against small, rudimentary unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, which have proven increasingly effective in modern warfare.

In response to the North Korean incursion, South Korea’s military said it will boost air defenses, including by establishing a special drone unit and by acquiring the ability to bring down enemy UAVs using radio waves and lasers.

“The military’s lack of preparedness has caused a lot of concern for people,” it added.

It still isn’t clear what North Korea intended to accomplish by sending the drones. Pyongyang has not commented on the action, which is the first reported North Korean drone incursion in more than five years.

In past incidents, crudely built North Korean UAVs took pictures of South Korean defense and government facilities before crashing on their way back to the North, according to South Korean government assessments.

With none of the drones from Monday yet located, South Korean media were filled with false alarms and other unconfirmed reports.

Local news outlets said one of the drones flew Monday over the South Korean presidential office in central Seoul. However, the South Korean Ministry of National Defense said it detected no flights over the presidential facilities.

Also Tuesday, local officials in the Ganghwa border region, where the drones were first spotted, reported detecting one of the UAVs in flight. The South Korean military later said local officials were actually observing a flock of birds.

SEE ALSO:

North Korea Claims Spy Satellite Progress, Posts Imagery of Seoul, Incheon

Many local residents are unsettled.

“It’s fortunate that they are not armed drones or a big fighter jet," said Shim Yeonmi, a 32-year-old who runs a cafe in the Ganghwa area. "But I still feel uncomfortable with the fact they are taking pictures and that we don’t know where they are now,” she told VOA.

The incident is raising questions about South Korea’s air defenses.

According to military officials, South Korea fired about 100 shots in its failed attempt to bring down the drones. Those efforts were complicated by the fact that the drones were flying in populated residential areas, officials added.

One of the South Korean aircraft involved in the response – a KA-1 light attack aircraft – crashed east of Seoul, though officials have not explained why. Neither pilot in the plane was injured, officials said.

South Korean officials have still not released any images of the drones or confirmed that any of the videos circulating in local media were in fact of the North Korean aircraft.

At a cabinet meeting Tuesday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faulted the country’s military readiness and posture, which he said were “greatly lacking.”

"We had been planning to establish a drone unit to carry out surveillance and reconnaissance operations on North Korea's key military facilities, but in the wake of yesterday's incident, we will move up the drone unit's establishment as much as possible," he said, according to the Yonhap news agency.

Dan Pinkston, a Seoul-based international relations professor at Troy University, said the North Korean incursion was likely meant to gather intelligence ahead of a major North Korean ruling party meeting this week.

SEE ALSO:

North Korea's Kim Kicks Off Key Party Meeting Ahead of New Year

“I think the (South Koreans) can bolster their air defense and deploy some kind of small interceptors, but that comes with a cost, and it takes time,” said Pinkston, a U.S. Air Force veteran who writes about Korea defense issues.

Rudimentary drones have taken on a bigger role in recent global conflicts, including Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The U.S. has said it supplied Ukraine’s military with highly effective Switchblade drones, which serve as tiny, guided missiles that can dive-bomb onto targets.

According to Ukrainian officials, Russia has also used small and relatively cheap Iranian-made drones to hover over targets and fly explosives into buildings in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.

SEE ALSO:

Ukraine Says It Downed 13 Russian Drones Sent to Attack Kyiv

Ukrainian military officials claim to have intercepted many of the drones from Russia. In contrast, South Korea hasn’t succeeded in downing any of the North Korean drones. Though analysts said those UAVs pose a lesser threat, they are still a concern for Seoul, said Pinkston.

“With the changes in warfare we're all seeing in Ukraine, it's something everyone is internalizing and trying to adapt (to),” he said.

voanews.com



8. S. Korea endorses key projects to upgrade F-15K fighters, buy refueling tankers



S. Korea endorses key projects to upgrade F-15K fighters, buy refueling tankers | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 28, 2022

SEOUL, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- South Korea approved major projects Wednesday to upgrade combat capabilities of its F-15K fighters and import aerial refueling tankers, the state arms procurement agency said, in a move to counter evolving North Korean threats.

The Defense Project Promotion Committee passed a 3.46 trillion won (US$2.73 billion) project to strengthen the mission capabilities and survivability of the F-15K jets from 2024-2034, according to the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA).

The project includes replacing the current F-15Ks' old radar system with the advanced Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar and installing integrated electronic warfare equipment and an up-to-date mission computer.

The committee also gave the green light to a 1.2 trillion won project to purchase foreign-made refueling tankers from 2024-2029.

DAPA did not disclose how many tankers will be imported, but it is expected to buy two tankers. Potential candidates for the project could include Boeing's KC-46 and Airbus A-330 MRTT, observers said.

The commission, in addition, approved a 673 billion won project to improve combat capabilities of the Navy's 4,400-ton KDX-II destroyers from 2024-2033. It is designed to replace old components with new, advanced ones, such as a towed array sonar system.


sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 28, 2022



9. Second-day Sitting of 6th Plenum of 8th C.C., WPK


The participants had to listen intently (and scribble on their notepads with vigor and in unison) because no one can understand what this statement means. This is quite a collection of words.


He mentioned the problems of bringing about a radical turn in the spheres of the popular masses' ideological and life culture as the revolution further progresses and the times change, steadily enhancing the function and role of the socialist laws and thoroughly establishing the law-abiding spirit, and more vigorously conducting the social patriotic movement, the mass movement with peculiar and advantageous vitality in the Korean-style socialist construction.


Intensely listening to his report, the participants recollect the work of their sectors and units from an instructive and developmental point of view.

Second-day Sitting of 6th Plenum of 8th C.C., WPK

Date: 28/12/2022 | Source: KCNA.kp (En) | Read original version at source

https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1672178934-937626976/second-day-sitting-of-6th-plenum-of-8th-c-c-wpk

Pyongyang, December 28 (KCNA) -- The second-day sitting of the 6th Enlarged Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) continued amid the extraordinary political awareness and active zeal of all the participants to adopt the new year's action guidelines for bringing a new phase of upsurge in the prosperous development of the state with absolute trust and confidence in the victory of the Korean-style socialist cause.


Kim Jong Un , general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, went on with his report on the first agenda item.


In the report, the General Secretary referred to the principles and ways for expanding the successes and experience gained in all aspects of the socialist cultural construction, including science, education and public health, during the struggle of 2022 and overcoming some serious shortcomings. And he proposed the major tasks to which great importance should be attached by relevant sectors in the next year to attain the goals set by the Party Congress.


He mentioned the problems of bringing about a radical turn in the spheres of the popular masses' ideological and life culture as the revolution further progresses and the times change, steadily enhancing the function and role of the socialist laws and thoroughly establishing the law-abiding spirit, and more vigorously conducting the social patriotic movement, the mass movement with peculiar and advantageous vitality in the Korean-style socialist construction.


Intensely listening to his report, the participants recollect the work of their sectors and units from an instructive and developmental point of view.


The report profoundly analyzed and assessed the new challengeable situation created in the Korean peninsula and the international political situation, and clarified the principle of external work and the orientation of struggle against the enemy to be adhered to by our Party and the DPRK government for defending the national sovereignty and interests under the present circumstances. And it set forth new key goals for bolstering up the self-reliant defence capability to be pushed ahead with in 2023 under the multilaterally changing situation.


The report also made an anatomical and scientific analysis of the present overall state affairs and stressed the need for the members of the leadership body of the Party Central Committee and other leading officials at all levels to decisively improve their work attitude and work style and thus fulfill their sacred and heavy duties before the Party and the revolution, the country and the people.


The participants are listening in earnest to the historic report of the General Secretary clearly indicating the knack and policy for overcoming manifold challenges and extreme difficulties in the most definite and prompt way and opening up a broad avenue for fresh leaping advance in the Korean-style socialist construction.


The report of the General Secretary will continue at the third-day sitting. -0-


www.kcna.kp (Juche111.12.28.)



10. North Korea's Kim unveils new military goals at key party meeting -KCNA



The "anti-enemy struggle."


Kim must externalize the threat to counter the resistance that can develop over the failure of all domestic policies. 


Excerpts:


The third-generation leader set the direction for the "anti-enemy struggle" and goals for reinforcing defence power, it added.
"He specified the principles of foreign affairs and the direction of the struggle against the enemy that our party and government must thoroughly abide by in order to protect sovereign rights and defend national interests," the official KCNA news agency said.
"New core goals for strengthening self-defensive capabilities to be strongly pursued in 2023 have been presented in preparation for diverse fluctuations in the political situation."



North Korea's Kim unveils new military goals at key party meeting -KCNA

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin

SEOUL, Dec 28 (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un unveiled new goals for the country's military for 2023 at an ongoing meeting of the ruling Workers' Party, state media reported on Wednesday, hinting at another year of intensive weapons tests and tension.

On the second day of the Sixth Enlarged Plenary Meeting of the party's 8th Central Committee, Kim reviewed the "newly created challenging situation" on the Korean peninsula and the broader political landscapes, the report said.

The third-generation leader set the direction for the "anti-enemy struggle" and goals for reinforcing defence power, it added.

"He specified the principles of foreign affairs and the direction of the struggle against the enemy that our party and government must thoroughly abide by in order to protect sovereign rights and defend national interests," the official KCNA news agency said.

"New core goals for strengthening self-defensive capabilities to be strongly pursued in 2023 have been presented in preparation for diverse fluctuations in the political situation."

KCNA did not provide details on those goals, but Kim's remarks could indicate the isolated country will continue to accelerate its military buildup.

[1/2] North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends the sixth enlarged meeting of the eighth Central Committee of the Workers' Party in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this undated photo released on December 27, 2022 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERS

North Korea has fired an unprecedented number of missiles this year, and many launches were designed to develop "top priority" strategic weapons under a five-year plan laid out at a Workers' Party congress in early 2021.

The list includes tactical nuclear weapons, a new intercontinental ballistic missile, hypersonic gliding flight warheads, nuclear-powered submarines and a reconnaissance satellite.

Tension remained high throughout this year amid the North's constant weapons tests, and it flared again this week after five North Korean drones crossed into South Korea, prompting Seoul to scramble fighter jets and attack helicopters, and try to shoot them down.

During the plenary meeting, Kim also pointed out "a series of serious shortcomings" observed in such areas as science, education and health this year, and suggested ways to overcome them and raised key tasks for next year, KCNA said.

North Korean leaders previously made speeches on New Year Day, but in recent years, Kim has called days-long party gatherings at the end of the year to announce major policy decisions.

The economy is high on the agenda, with Kim facing mounting pressure from international sanctions, the fallout from an anti-coronavirus lockdown and natural disasters.

Reporting by Hyonhee Shin; Editing by Lincoln Feast.

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin


11. North Korea-Linked Lazarus Group Poses as VC Firms to Spread Malware


When someone makes a venture capital offer that is too good to be true, it probably is.


North Korea-Linked Lazarus Group Poses as VC Firms to Spread Malware - Decrypt

Cybersecurity firm Kapersky says BlueNoroff's newest malware can circumvent Mark-of-the-Web (MOTW) security measures.

decrypt.co · by Decrypt / Jason Nelson · December 27, 2022

BlueNoroff—the name given by security researchers to a group linked with North Korean state-sponsored hacking collective Lazarus Group—has expanded its criminal activities to include posing as venture capitalists looking to invest in crypto startups, according to a new report from the Cybersecurity firm Kaspersky.

“BlueNoroff created numerous fake domains impersonating venture capital companies and banks,” Kaspersky says.

In its report, Kaspersky says it detected global attacks by BlueNoroff targeting cryptocurrency startups in January 2022, but says there was a lull in activity until the fall.

According to Kaspersky, BlueNoroff is using malware to attack organizations that deal with smart contracts, DeFi, Blockchain, and the FinTech industry. Kaspersky says BlueNoroff is also using software to bypass Mark-of-the-Web (MOTW) technology, which ensures that a message from Windows pops up to warn users when trying to open a file downloaded from the Internet.

#BlueNoroff stole millions in #crypto, but how did they do it?
Check out the #APT group's new #malware strains  https://t.co/NK6Yt0HQ6S pic.twitter.com/3VudIbu3jU
— Kaspersky (@kaspersky) December 27, 2022

Stealing cryptocurrency has been a profitable business for North Korean hackers. Since 2017, over $1.2 billion in cryptocurrency has been looted, according to data from South Korean spy agencies. In 2022, several high-profile companies, including FTX, were hit by cyber-attacks.

A treacherous fall

In August, the group sent job offers to candidates on LinkedIn for an engineering manager position at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase.

In September, the Lazarus Group targeted Coinbase and Crypto.com job seekers in two separate phishing attacks. One malware attack encouraged job seekers to download a PDF document showcasing the open vacancies at Crypto.com. Once downloaded, the PDF would install a trojan horse and steal personal and financial information.

In October, cyber criminals used an exploit in the Binance Smart Chain to make off with over $100 million in cryptocurrency.

On November 11, 2022, the day FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, an unknown actor began siphoning funds from FTX wallets to the tune of $640 million in tokens.

Hundreds of millions of dollars are now flowing out of FTX wallets, some speculate liquidators but it's late on a friday night, not typical times for such rapid heavy movements. Some withdrawals are being swapped from Tether to DAI. Hack or insider actions? $26 million here pic.twitter.com/8wWlaE7na9
— foobar (@0xfoobar) November 12, 2022

While the story of the fall of Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX has taken over the headlines, the threat posed by cyber criminals has never subsided.

Kaspersky acknowledged a request for comment from Decrypt but was unable to provide a response prior to publication.

Stay on top of crypto news, get daily updates in your inbox.

decrypt.co · by Decrypt / Jason Nelson · December 27, 2022



12. N. Korea reorganizes Camp 15 to increase prison population



The Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.


N. Korea reorganizes Camp 15 to increase prison population

Daily NK's source responded to reports suggesting that the Yodok prison camp has been closed by saying that nothing of the sort has happened

By Mun Dong Hui - 2022.12.28 11:23am

dailynk.com

North Korea has recently been working to reorganize the Yodok concentration camp for political prisoners (also known as Camp 15) and rebuild and repair its facilities with the goal of housing more inmates there, Daily NK has learned.

“North Korea recently eliminated a zone at Camp 15 and repaired and rebuilt structures there. The work began in the fall of last year and was completed in October of this year,” a high-ranking source inside North Korea told Daily NK last Friday.

“The eliminated zone was the place housing the descendants of the original inmates of the camp. But while that zone was eliminated, the residents there haven’t been sent to another [camp]. Those are people who will never be let outside,” the source added.

Following the camp’s reorganization, the prisoners in the eliminated zone appear to have been relocated to another part of the camp.

Satellite imagery (see below) shows that some of the structures have been rebuilt. But for the most part, the structures look the same as in the past. The site appears to be still functioning as a political prison camp.





Source: Google Earth

According to a source inside the country, a considerable number of prisoners remain at the Yodok prison camp: 55,000 in March 2020, 56,800 in July 2021 and 42,900 in June 2022.

“The camp has been reorganized, and its administrative system has been changed,” the source added.

In short, North Korea has completed not only exterior renovations on the camp but also an internal reorganization as part of a complete overhaul of its system of management.

As for why these changes have been made, the source said, “The goal is to bring new inmates into the camp.”

That means the North Korean authorities have set up new sections or moved personnel to increase the camp population, presumably with the goal of administering the camp more rigorously.

“[The reorganization of the camp] was part of a plan to adjust the camp sections and the discipline goals in line with internal policy. The measures weren’t taken to avoid notice from the outside,” the source added.

The source seemed to be saying that North Korea was not responding to pressure from the international community about its human rights record. The UN General Assembly has adopted resolutions condemning North Korea’s human rights violations for 18 years in a row.

The source responded to reports suggesting that the Yodok prison camp has been closed by saying that nothing of the sort has happened.

In 2014, North Korea took steps that indicated it would shut down the Yodok prison camp. But even at the time, experts were divided about whether the camp was being closed or simply downsized.

But today, the predominant view is that North Korea is not closing the camp, but rather reorganizing its zones and facilities.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com



13. N. Korea selects top students to become future managers of economic growth zones




​This seems like a good idea on the surface. Get new young blood and creativity into the economic system. The problem is they will be completely stymied because the problem is Kim Jong Uns policies. It is Kim's deliberate policy making that is causing failures across all sectors in north Korea.​


I fear Kim is actually just putting into place a new pool of scapegoats for future blames for Kim's failures.



N. Korea selects top students to become future managers of economic growth zones

Pyongyang plans to give the students intensive basic training in economics, management, trade, accounting, law and finance, as well as send them overseas for study

By Jeong Tae Joo - 2022.12.28 3:12pm

dailynk.com


North Korea recently conducted a nationwide selection of outstanding students for transfer into major universities as part of efforts to cultivate experts to run economic growth zones in the country.

With North Korea preparing to reopen as it watches global COVID-19 trends, the country appears to be actively cultivating economic officials to lead economic development zones in each province.

A source in North Korea told Daily NK on Dec. 21 that the authorities recently conducted a month-long campaign to recruit “outstanding students at light industrial colleges and commercial colleges in Pyongyang and the provinces for transfer into major universities.”

The recruitment drive ended on Dec. 14.

The source said prior to drive, universities across the country were allotted recommendations in accordance with a Cabinet-approved plan to select outstanding students majoring in light industry, commerce, accounting, statistics and management for transfer into “specialized departments for economic zone development” to be created at Kim Il Sung University, People’s Economy College and Jong Jun Thaek University of Economics in Wonsan from the first semester of next year.

The students selected in the month-long campaign have reportedly received notices transferring them to major universities from the first semester of next year.

In particular, North Korean authorities reportedly called the effort “2023’s ratified task to establish principles to cultivate talent for [North Korean-style] economic development through trade, an area of particular interest to Kim Jong Un, the president of the State Affairs Commission.”

Kim reportedly approved the effort, emphasizing that the most important thing is to “prepare workers to lead the nation’s new economic development” by “boldly and generously selecting the best talent on a nationwide scale and giving them world-class skills.”

Pyongyang plans to give the students transferred into the universities intensive basic training in economics, management, trade, accounting, law and finance, as well as send them overseas for study.

The move suggests the authorities intend to reinvigorate the country’s economic development zones — the engines driving economic development of the Kim Jong Un era — by focusing on developing new generation talent to operate and manage economic development zones while dealing with foreign investment companies.

The source said the top talent was selected, regardless of which school they went to or which year of study they were in.

“The authorities called on those selected to strive to develop their skills, telling them that the state would take charge of sending them abroad to study, getting them into graduate school and turning them into the economic officials of the future,” he said.

The source further reported that the selected students are becoming objects of envy “with rumors going around that the state plans to send them overseas for study.”

“In the past, if you asked kids what they wanted to be, they said artists, donju or cadres, but now, kids educated by open-minded parents say they want to be scientists or researchers,” he added, using a term to describe the country’s wealthy entrepreneurial class.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean


dailynk.com




14. Kim Jong Un congratulates aerospace development agency on Seoul satellite photos



​It is hard to believe the regime thinks these photos are praise worthy.


Kim Jong Un congratulates aerospace development agency on Seoul satellite photos

Kim Jong Un reportedly told technical developers that “the reconnaissance satellite photos were nothing but a first step, but also a success that amounts to a historic occasion"

By Seulkee Jang - 2022.12.28 5:00pm

dailynk.com

Satellite photos of Seoul taken by a North Korean satellite and published in state media on Dec. 19, 2022 (Rodong Sinmun-News1)

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un directly ordered the Dec. 19 release of reconnaissance satellite photos of downtown Seoul taken the previous day, Daily NK has learned.

Kim seemingly aimed to display North Korea’s reconnaissance prowess and promote internal unity, while at the same time cultivating an image of a supreme leader in direct charge of a militarily powerful country.

According to a high-ranking source in North Korea on Monday, Kim met with and directly congratulated leading officials of the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) on Dec. 18, the same day the North Korean media reported a test of a reconnaissance satellite under development.

At the meeting, Kim called the test “a big advance that can bring down the enemies’ strongholds,” and that “we need to show them how scarily [well] we are developing.”

The source said Kim ordered the release of the satellite photo taken of Seoul to show off the country’s reconnaissance capabilities.

Kim also reportedly recalled an anecdote related to the development of tractors during the Kim Il Sung era.

In the 1950s, the Soviet Union had formed a military alliance with other socialist nations, the Warsaw Pact, and an economic association, the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, or COMECON.

At the time, the Soviet Union asked North Korea to modify its development strategy to focus on agriculture and join COMECON.

However, Kim Il Sung rejected this and drew up a plan for North Korea to develop heavy industry and agriculture on its own.

North Korea developed a tractor with indigenous technology, but during the first test, the tractor moved backwards instead of forward, leading to widespread disappointment among cadres.

However, Kim Il Sung said that if a tractor moves backwards, “it means it can also go forward,” and called on cadres to “continue their development rather than be disappointed” since the test was only a first step.

Recalling this anecdote, Kim Jong Un reportedly congratulated the technical developers and cadres for their hard work, telling them that “the reconnaissance satellite photos were nothing but a first step, but also a success that amounts to a historic occasion.”

The next day, Dec. 19, Kim’s conversation with the NADA officials was reportedly turned into lecture materials and distributed to party cadres.

In the meantime, high-ranking North Korean cadres reportedly criticized Kim’s sister, Central Committee vice department director Kim Yo-jong, for “disgracing” the country after she released a statement refuting criticism of the photos by South Korean experts who dismissed the images as “crude.”

In the statement, Kim explained the low resolution of the released photos by saying, “Who will install and test an expensive high-resolution camera for a single-shot test which takes no more than 830 seconds?”

Basically, she argued that even though they have high-resolution equipment, they used low-quality equipment to save money.

Some North Korean cadres reportedly criticized the statement.

“How could anyone publicly say we couldn’t shoot better photos than this because we have no money? If anybody else had said that, they would have gotten in a lot of trouble,” they said, based on the source’s account.

Meanwhile, South Korea responded to North Korea’s release of satellite photos of Seoul by releasing on Dec. 22 high-resolution color photos of the area around Pyongyang’s Kim Il Sung Square taken by the Compact Advanced Satellite Cas500-1, clearly demonstrating the divide in satellite technology between the two Koreas.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com





15. Restaurant under covert Chinese police station suspicion to make announcement this week





(LEAD) Restaurant under covert Chinese police station suspicion to make announcement this week | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 심선아 · December 28, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES with date of announcement in paras 1, 5)

SEOUL, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- A Chinese restaurant in Seoul, suspected of having functioned as a secret Chinese police station, said Wednesday it will make an "important announcement" the following day to address the allegations.

The restaurant has received media attention after the Spain-based human rights watchdog Safeguard Defenders insisted early this month that China was operating more than 102 clandestine police stations in 53 countries, including South Korea, to monitor and repatriate dissidents living in exile.

South Korean counterintelligence authorities have since been looking into the background of the restaurant with suspicions that it might be the foothold of China's secret police organization in South Korea.

"For the sake of truth, we will make an important announcement. We will disclose hideous forces concealing the truth," the restaurant said in a message posted on an outdoor electronic display Wednesday.

The announcement will be made in front of the restaurant at 2:30 p.m. Thursday, it said.

No details were given as to what "hideous forces" represent, but the message claimed, "A corrupt company is controlling public opinion with money and fooling South Korean people and destroying the friendship between South Korea and China by manipulating Korean politics."


pbr@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 심선아 · December 28, 2022



16. South Korea must respond to N.Korea despite its nuclear arms - Yoon




South Korea must respond to N.Korea despite its nuclear arms - Yoon

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin

SEOUL, Dec 28 (Reuters) - South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said on Wednesday that any provocation by North Korea must be met with retaliation without hesitation despite its nuclear weapons, his office said, after an intrusion by North Korean drones.

Five North Korean drones crossed into South Korea on Monday, prompting South Korea's military to scramble fighter jets and attack helicopters to try to shoot them down, in the first such intrusion since 2017.

"We must punish and retaliate against any provocation by North Korea. That is the most powerful means to deter provocations," Yoon said in a meeting with his aides, according to his press secretary Kim Eun-hye.

"We must not fear or hesitate because North Korea has nuclear weapons," he said.

Monday's intrusion triggered criticism in South Korea of its air defences. Yoon chided the military, in particular its failure to bring down the drones while they flew over South Korea for hours.

South Korea responded on Monday by sending drones over North Korea for three hours.

Defence Minister Lee Jong-sup told parliament on Wednesday that Yoon had ordered him to send drones into North Korea in response to any incursion "even if that means risking escalation".

South Korea's military has apologised for its response and said it could not shoot down the drones because they were too small.

Relations between North Korea and U.S. ally South Korea have been testy for decades but have grown even more tense since Yoon's conservative government took over in May promising a tougher line with the northern rival.

North Korea has also been pressing on with the development of its weapons with numerous missile tests this year amid speculation it could test a nuclear weapon for a seventh time.

Earlier on Wednesday, South Korea's defence ministry announced plans to spend 560 billion won ($441.26 million) over the next five years to improve its defences against drones, including the development of an airborne laser weapon and a signal jammer.

South Korea will also expand its drone capabilities to three squadrons.

South Korea also aims to procure more stealth jets and ballistic missile submarines and to accelerate the development of systems to intercept rockets, the ministry said.

"We will strengthen our ... retaliation capability to be able to destroy key facilities anywhere in North Korea in case of its nuclear attack or use of weapons of mass destruction," the ministry said in a statement.

In total, the ministry aims to spend 331.4 trillion won ($261 billion) on defence over the next five years, with an average annual increase of 6.8%. This year's budget stood at 54.6 trillion won.

Defence expenditures are subject to parliamentary approval.

($1 = 1,269.1000 won)

Reporting by Hyonhee Shin. Editing by Gerry Doyle, Robert Birsel

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin



17. Yoon berates defense minister over botched operation against N.K. drones



Yoon berates defense minister over botched operation against N.K. drones | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · December 28, 2022

SEOUL, Dec. 28 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol berated Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup over the military's failed operation against five North Korean drones that entered South Korean airspace earlier this week, officials said Wednesday.

Yoon met with Lee on Tuesday morning and was briefed on the military's response to the North's violation of South Korean airspace the previous day.

The drones flew across the Military Demarcation Line separating the two Koreas, with one flying over northern parts of Seoul, but the South Korean military failed to shoot them down.


"How can there be none preparing against North Korean drone attacks? There were many similar incidents in the past, so what have you been doing until now?" Yoon said during the meeting, according to one official who relayed the exchange.

"Are you saying there was no proper training and that you did nothing?" he also said.

The briefing took place in the middle of a larger meeting convened to discuss security conditions with other national security officials, including National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han. Kim and Lee jointly briefed the president on the discussions.

Yoon later presided over a Cabinet meeting as scheduled but revised his opening remarks to call for advancing the establishment of a drone unit. He also promised to strengthen the country's surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities by introducing state-of-the-art stealth drones.

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · December 28, 2022





18. South Korea’s tech no match for intruding NK drones


Glass houses. We should be careful about throwing stones.


Excerpts:


In all, South Korea wasted millions of dollars and tons of fuel to no avail.


A best guess is that South Korea was unprepared and unequipped to deal with a drone threat from North Korea. South Korea’s defense agencies need to rapidly assess why the failure happened and take steps to acquire the equipment they need to prevent another intrusion in future. Apologies, already offered, are not an adequate response.


North Korea has learned that South Korea was not prepared and is vulnerable to drone strikes. This will almost certainly encourage future bad behavior.


South Korea’s tech no match for intruding NK drones

Defense agencies need to assess why it happened and acquire the equipment needed to prevent worse intrusions

asiatimes.com · by Stephen Bryen · December 27, 2022

Radar and jamming technologies are the keys to figuring out why South Korea was unable to down even a single one of the five North Korean drones that intruded into the South’s airspace December 26.

Even though one of the North’s drones got as far as northern Seoul, it appears South Korea had difficulty locating the tiny aircraft on radar and more difficulty in tracking them. In the end, the South may have lacked equipment to jam the drones’ data channels or satellite navigation.

Because South Korea could not locate the drones, it sent up fighter aircraft to try and find them and, when identified, shoot them down. Although the South fired over 100 rounds of ammunition, not one North Korean drone was hit.


Whether the South Korean pilots really saw the North Korean drones or picked them up on aircraft radar is open to doubt. The pilots might just as well have been shooting at birds rather than unmanned aerial vehicles.

Overall, the performance of South Korea’s air defense against drones was dismal.

The type of drone launched by North Korea isn’t known. Korean authorities claim that these were small drones, but whether they were fixed wing or quadcopters isn’t known.

South Korea claims it has effective solutions against larger drones, although it has not said what.

Truly effective solutions must include advanced radars. Small quadcopter drones use electric motors and the drones are typically made of plastic. Still, advanced radars can detect even those small drones.


Small quadcopter drones are so ubiquitous you can buy one from Amazon for $20.99. That’s a price even Kim Jong Un could afford. Photo: Amazon

The best modern radars optimized for drone detection have features that other radars, including commercial air-traffic control and military sensors, lack.

These radars focus on detecting low and slow drones that can sneak under the coverage of standard radar. Many anti-drone radars have built in libraries that can assess whether the threat is a drone and not a bird or other object, and can even specify its type. They can reject noise and clutter and ignore radar returns from flocks of birds.

A major drawback for drone detection radars is range. Most operate best at short range, meaning one mile or less.

Some of the better anti-drone radars combine radar with an electro-optical sensor making identification and tracking easier, and also add electronic directional interception that can jam the control signals the drone needs for its operation. One of those systems, Elta’s Drone Guard, was successful in tests at the US Army’s Yuma Proving Ground in Arizona.

The typical drone used today has a data link for operator control of the drone and for sending imagery and other data back to the control center. Radio transmission can be relayed to and from a control center or from airborne platforms, including other drones.


More expensive and sophisticated drones, especially those with long range and endurance, use satellite communications to handle command and control and data transmission such as imagery.

Global positioning systems, also used in virtually all modern drones, include the US Navstar, the Russian Glonass and the Chinese BeiDou navigation systems. Today, inexpensive radio receiver chips and small antennas can make use of all three systems at the same time, making jamming difficult.

Generally speaking, it is easier to jam or disrupt RF (radio) control and data channels than it is to jam or disrupt GPS. However, GPS jamming and spoofing are used as part of the broader effort to knock out drone threats.

One of the attractive features of Elon Musk’s Starlink is that it is very difficult to jam because of the thousands of satellites that support the system. Starlink itself is not yet functional on drones, but it almost certainly will be in the future.

Whether small or large, drones mostly rely on data channels and GPS systems. The Iranian Shahed-136 is a little different. It is a kamikaze or suicide drone, a loitering munition that is pre-programmed with target coordinates and uses GPS, but it has no command and control and data channels that could be jammed.


Drones of the next generation are expected to be increasingly autonomous and may passively receive guidance from emitters other than GPS satellites. For example, radio towers at known locations and triangulation could make it possible for a drone to avoid GPS jamming and spoofing.

We know precious little about the North Korean drones. We also do not know whether South Korea tried to jam them, or even if South Korea had the equipment to do so.

What we do know is that North Korea has learned that it can use drones to successfully penetrate South Korean airspace. North Korea has also learned that its drones could successfully send South Korea’s jet fighters on a five-hour wild goose chase.

During the fruitless South Korean Air Force effort to track down and destroy North Korea’s drones one South Korean KA-1 turboprop light attack fighter, which was being sent off to chase the North Korean drones, crashed on takeoff. Both pilots safely ejected.

In all, South Korea wasted millions of dollars and tons of fuel to no avail.

A best guess is that South Korea was unprepared and unequipped to deal with a drone threat from North Korea. South Korea’s defense agencies need to rapidly assess why the failure happened and take steps to acquire the equipment they need to prevent another intrusion in future. Apologies, already offered, are not an adequate response.

North Korea has learned that South Korea was not prepared and is vulnerable to drone strikes. This will almost certainly encourage future bad behavior.

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute.

asiatimes.com · by Stephen Bryen · December 27, 2022


19. Seoul vows double retaliation against North Korean drones


Notice how north Korea's action supports subversion of South Korea. We need to also consider the political warfare threat in addition to the security threat.


Excerpts:

Moreover, with North Korea having announced this year a “dead hand” strategy – the launch of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by unit commanders in the event the leadership is incapacitated – and a doctrine of swift escalation to use of tactical nuclear weapons, the entire concept of the three-axis system is questionable.
The ministerial blueprint also puts forth its costing projections. It hopes to spend some US$261 billion during the five-year period between 2023 and 2027, expanding the defense budget by 6.8% for each of those years.
The plan requires parliamentary approval, and the National Assembly is controlled by the opposition. Even so, with the region engaged in a fast-accelerating arms race, the ministry may be pushing on an open door.
North Korea has this year engaged in its most extensive year of missile tests ever; China is massively upgrading its military capabilities in all domains; and Japan has recently announced that it will double its defense budget by 2028.


Seoul vows double retaliation against North Korean drones

Anger flares, blame flies after failure of South Korea’s military to down North Korean drones

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · December 28, 2022

SEOUL – Fallout from the failure of South Korea’s high-tech military to shoot down any of the five North Korean drones that penetrated its airspace on Monday continues to spread.

President Yoon Suk-yeol, presumably operating on the principle of “if you can ‘t beat ’em, join ’em,” has put in place a new doctrine: the counter-deployments of two or three South Korean unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into the North’s airspace for every North Korean drone that intrudes into the South.

The Ministry of National Defense offered an official apology for its failure. It also released a future defense blueprint, focusing on spending upgrades to secure “overwhelming capabilities.”


On Monday, five North Korean drones of indeterminate design crossed the heavily defended Demilitarized Zone. In Southern airspace, they loitered over a coastal island and over the heavily militarized county north of Seoul. One even patrolled over northern Seoul itself.

A range of South Korean air assets were scrambled – with one light strike aircraft crashing in the process – but despite live fire aimed from an armed helicopter at one of the intruders, none of the drones were downed.

They disappeared from South Korean radars and no wreckage has been recovered, suggesting that they successfully returned to North Korea.

It is unknown what data the drones – presumably on a reconnaissance sweep – gathered. But ominously, their intrusion forced the cancellation of flight operations at both of South Korea’s major airports, Gimpo and Incheon International, for over an hour.

That made the vulnerabilities of Seoul’s Incheon International Airport – a regional flight hub for both cargo and passenger flights – strikingly clear. The halting of flight operations at IIA suggests that the North has acquired a very potent, low-risk, low-cost weapon with which it could feasibly wage economic warfare on the South.


That makes drones, arguably, a better tactic to grab Seoul’s attention than missile tests. And given the difficulty of bringing down such tiny and evasive vehicles, Seoul has apparently chosen a retaliatory strategy.

A presidential official confirmed to Asia Times that local news reports stating that Yoon has personally ordered the military to respond with two or three drone intrusions into the North for every drone that the North sends into the South were accurate.

However, unlike South Korea, North Korea lacks significant international air transit hubs or large numbers of incoming passengers, detracting from the potential effectiveness of Southern drone patrols as leverage over Pyongyang.

Yoon also gave his defense minister a tongue-lashing.

“How can there be no one preparing against North Korean drone attacks?” Yoon asked Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup in a meeting on Tuesday, it was reported on Wednesday. “Are you saying there was no proper training and that you did nothing?”


There were red faces in a military that, despite being armed with a plethora of big-ticket, big-boy’s toys – F-35 stealth fighters, network-linked multiple launch rocket systems and submarine-launched ballistic missiles – proved unable to shoot down any of the North’s drones.

“We feel sorry that although our military detected and tracked the drones, we failed to shoot them down,” Lieutenant-General Kang Shin-chul, operations director of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), said in a statement late Wednesday.

In the future, the military will “aggressively” deploy strike assets against Northern UAV intrusions, Kang said.

Still, it was far from clear whether those assets would be any more effective than those deployed on Monday.

The Ministry of National Defense also released a rare defense blueprint document on Wednesday.


The document calls for continued spend, building up the assets that comprise South Korea’s so-called “three axis” defense system. The system is designed as a response to the North Korean nuclear missile threat.

The system is made up of “Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation,” an operational plan to incapacitate the North Korean leadership if hostilities commence; “Kill Chain,” a multidimensional, pre-emptive strike capability; and “Korea Air and Missile Defense,” an anti-missile, anti-air system.

Major questions related to doctrine, technologies, capabilities and risk tolerance hang over all of the above.

First, all are predicated on conventional systems, which are clearly under-gunned compared with the North’s widely tested nuclear arms. Second, it is far from clear how effective the South’s intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance (ISR) assets are, and whether they are capable of tracking key North Korean leadership figures.

Third, as Monday’s drone intrusion shows, the South’s capability of intercepting North Korean airborne weapons is suspect.

Moreover, with North Korea having announced this year a “dead hand” strategy – the launch of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by unit commanders in the event the leadership is incapacitated – and a doctrine of swift escalation to use of tactical nuclear weapons, the entire concept of the three-axis system is questionable.

The ministerial blueprint also puts forth its costing projections. It hopes to spend some US$261 billion during the five-year period between 2023 and 2027, expanding the defense budget by 6.8% for each of those years.

The plan requires parliamentary approval, and the National Assembly is controlled by the opposition. Even so, with the region engaged in a fast-accelerating arms race, the ministry may be pushing on an open door.

North Korea has this year engaged in its most extensive year of missile tests ever; China is massively upgrading its military capabilities in all domains; and Japan has recently announced that it will double its defense budget by 2028.

Follow this writer on Twitter @ASalmonSeoul.

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · December 28, 2022







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De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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