Sub-Saharan African countries find themselves facing another severe and exogenous shock. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted a surge in food and fuel prices that threatens the region’s economic outlook. This latest setback could not have come at a worse time—as growth was starting to recover and policymakers were beginning to address the social and economic legacy of Covid-19 pandemic and other development challenges. The effects of the war will be deeply consequential, eroding standards of living and aggravating macroeconomic imbalances. We now expect growth to slow to 3.8 per cent this year from last year’s better-than-expected 4.5 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) latest Regional Economic Outlook. Please click here to peruse.

South Africa’s export trade continues to set new records, a trend that began during the second year of the Covid-19 pandemic. At just below R170bn, exports for March were a whopping 32% higher than in February and 10% higher than the previous record (in March 2021). It is clear that the sharp rise in the country’s export earnings has been fuelled by a continuation of the upward phase of the current commodity price super-cycle, especially for coal. Of late, the war in Ukraine has led to further upward pressure on the prices of several of South Africa’s key export commodities, especially iron ore and coal. At the end of April, the price of coal had more than doubled from its level of $157 per tonne at the beginning of the year. Global demand for coal has surged as a result of tight supplies of alternative energy commodities and sanctions on Russian imports of coal. Read more in the linked article by Dr Roelof Botha, economic advisor to the Optimum Investment Group, first published on Daily Maverick.

Agbiz participated in oral hearings by the Portfolio Committee on Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development held on 3 and 4 May. The hearings were aimed at getting stakeholder input on proposed amendments to the Agricultural Produce Agents Act. Several organisations such as the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa, the Institute of Market Agents of South Africa (IMASA), South African Fruit Promoters (Pty) Ltd, Vleissentraal, the Fresh Produce Exporters’ Forum and HL Hall & Sons (Pty) Ltd also presented. The most contentious amendment addressed by all presenters related to the introduction of compulsory insurance. The Bill aims to introduce a requirement for all market, export and livestock agents to insure the produce they sell on behalf of the farmer. Read more in the linked article by Agbiz head of Legal Intelligence Annelize Crosby.

The Expropriation Bill is now at a very critical stage in its enactment. The Portfolio Committee on Public Works and Infrastructure have deliberated on the submissions made during public hearings, the views of state and parliamentary legal advisors have been sought and canvassed and the committee has gone through the Bill clause by clause. Advocate Geoff Budlender (SC), who previously provided legal opinion on certain aspects of the Bill, has been requested to also respond to concerns raised by members of the committee during the clause-by-clause deliberations. Annelize Crosby discusses this subject in the linked article.

South Africa is a diverse and sizable country of 122 million hectares. But there is a commonality in challenges that farmers and agribusiness raise regardless of the provinces or municipalities. The challenge of poor service delivery by municipalities and inadequately maintained roads are among some of the core issues in every discussion. This past weekend, we joined a discussion in the Free State organized by one of our members, Sernick Group, and these matters were yet again the key points of reflection, along with broad policy themes of land reform and water use regulations. Given that these hindrances hamper the profitability of many businesses and that resources that could be invested in growth-enhancing activities within farming entities and agribusiness are now increasingly diverted to public services, we will continue to raise these issues for prioritization by the government through our interactions with the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, and other departments such as Department of Public Works and Infrastructure. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses this topic in the linked article.

A ban on agricultural exports is never desirable, especially by a major player in agricultural markets. Unfortunately, such practices have been common since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war more recently. We have seen this through the temporary curbs on wheat and rice exports, as global prices increased and countries attempted to protect their domestic consumers. In 2020, the G20 agricultural ministers intervened and discouraged countries from banning exports as the practice further exacerbated global agricultural commodity prices and reduced local farmers’ incentives to increase production in the next season to fulfil the stronger global demand. The latest country to follow this path of export curbs is Indonesia, which, this past Friday, banned the exports of palm oil. Indonesia explained its decision to ensure the protection of domestic consumers from rising prices. An interview on Grootplaas is available here.

Criminals have a huge unfavourable impact on people's lives and can also have a huge impact on the grain industry if we are not careful. In 2021 there were two cases in America where grain storers' logistics systems were hacked by ransomware. Ransomware is a program that is downloaded by an employee with or without the knowledge of the employee. The software that controls a silo complex's logistics control, is thus taken hostage. The only way the legal owner can gain access to the system again is to pay a large ransom to the criminals for the code that controls the logistics system. Read more in the linked article by Agbiz Grain general manager Wessel Lemmer, written for and first published in Landbouweekblad.

Ukraine's farmers have sown around 31% of the area expected for the 2022 spring crops sowing or 4.7 million hectares, the Ukrainian grain traders union UGA said on Tuesday, citing official data. The union said Ukraine planned to sow 11.45 million hectares of spring grains this year, 3.5 to 4 million hectares less than in 2021 due to the Russian invasion, the "occupation of territories" and mining. The official data shows that farmers had sown 180 000 hectares of spring wheat, 844 000 hectares of spring barley, 1.274 million hectares of corn and some other commodities. It shows the area under spring wheat could total 190 000 hectares, 900 000 hectares of spring barley and 3.9 million hectares of corn. Read more in the linked article, first published on Successful Farming.

.The Horn of Africa is in the grip of one of the worst droughts in decades as it faces an unprecedented fourth consecutive failed rainy season, thought to be caused by La Nina weather patterns and climate change. The UN has warned it could tip 20 million people into extreme hunger—and at worst lead to starvation—across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has worsened the crisis, pushing food and fuel prices to a near all-time high. The region is also grappling with political instability, locust infestations, and the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, undermining its ability to cope with the drought. Read more in the linked article, first published on QuartzAfrica.

Global maize production is worth billions of dollars annually and is key to global food security because it’s a staple food for billions of people. Most maize production relies on natural rainfall, making it vulnerable to changing rainfall patterns. This limitation is likely to intensify in the future because climate change is predicted to lead to lower rainfall in many regions. This could decrease yields by 10% by the time global temperatures have increased by 4°C. Droughts are also predicted to become more frequent and severe. Higher temperatures are also predicted for many parts of the world and will have direct effects on maize growth and productivity. Warming will also lead to more evaporation, which means that plants lose more water. Read more in the linked article, first published on The Conversation.

Over the past 20 years, sub-Saharan Africa has registered the highest rate of agricultural production in the world. There have been knock-on effects with the region also seeing the fastest growth in off-farm employment and non-farm labour productivity. There’s a widely held view that Africa’s agricultural growth trajectory could be jeopardised by an ageing farm population because young people are fleeing from farming. Several sources indicate that the average age of Africans in farming has risen to 60 years or more. But we are unaware of any empirical evidence to support this claim. To understand what’s really going on, the authors used nationally representative survey data collected by the government statistical offices of six African countries – Ghana, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia, Nigeria and Tanzania. In the linked article, first published on The Conversation, research into young people’s access to land as well as their migration decisions and employment opportunities, are shared.

Humans’ relationship with nature is broken. We’re transforming the Earth so dramatically that almost one million plant and animal species face extinction. Losing species unravels the tapestry of nature, changing how ecosystems function and, ultimately, damaging society too. Nature brings huge benefits to people. Some are tangible. In South Africa alone, the value of these benefits to people is estimated at R275 billion annually (about 7% of the country’s gross domestic product). That value includes providing the country with crops, wood, water and fuel. There are other, less immediately tangible benefits, too: air purification, water regulation, water purification, recreation, tourism, and cultural and heritage value. One of the things that contributes to ecosystem degradation in South Africa is the invasion by alien plants. Read more in the linked article, first published on The Conversation.

Following the outbreak of violent protests on citrus-producing farms in the Sundays River Valley region recently, which saw growers suffering over R70 million in damages to their property, infrastructure and packhouses, and losing R100 million worth of fruit due to be exported, the Sundays River Valley Citrus Producer Forum (SRVCPF) has responded to the demands and grievances made by SANCO in their petition handed over last week. In a statement, Dr Hennie Ehlers, chairman of the Sundays River Valley Citrus Producers Forum, said it was important to note that service delivery did not form part of these demands and grievances. The growers' forum, through levies paid per export carton by producers, has used these funds to maintain and upgrade these services in the communities of the Sundays River Valley since 2018. Read more in the linked media statement.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state, however, forecasts indicate that it will likely return to a neutral state during the coming seasons. During autumn and winter, the presence of ENSO has less of an impact. Thus, the presence of the current La Niña event is not expected to have any significant impact on rainfall in the coming seasons. The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates below-normal rainfall for most parts of the country except for the central and eastern coastal areas in early winter (MJJ) and the eastern coastal areas during mid-and late-winter (JJA and JAS). Both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above-normal for most of the country, except for parts of the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape where below-normal temperatures are expected. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor the weather and climatic conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season. Read more in the Seasonal Climate Watch, published by the South African Weather Service

Minister of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD) Thoko Didiza will hand over a railway siding machine, farming implements and title deeds to the five Melmoth communities in KwaZulu-Natal on 6 and 7 May 2022. The South African Farmers Development Association (SAFDA) was appointed by DALLRD to implement the Mkhuze Rail Siding Transloading Facility Project on behalf of the 1 900 Makhathini smallscale sugarcane farmers. DALLRD funded the project for the Makhathini smallscale farmers for the amount of R38 million. This will enhance their meaningful participation in the sugarcane sector whilst simultaneously transitioning them to the mainstream players' role in this lucrative business sector. The Minister will also hand over machinery and farming equipment to the value of R10 million as part of the operationalization of uMkhanyakude District Sugarcane Farmer Production Support Unit (FPSU). Read more in the linked DALRRD media statement.

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The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern African, shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update - From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse.